Extended coverage of the Larsen vs. Koster debate is available here.

See our earlier reporting here, and here.

Highly placed sources have informed me that efforts are underway to have Sarah Palin intervene in the current squabble between former Washington U.S. Senate candidate Clint Didier and Republican Senate nominee Dino Rossi.

Palin, if you recall, endorsed Didier just prior to Rossi’s entry into the race in May.  SarahPAC gave Didier $5000 and Palin recorded a robo-call for Didier, but she did not campaign in the state for him.

Didier has declined to endorse Rossi in the Senate race until Rossi agrees to meet three specific demands.  Rossi has refused.

Republican state party officials and electeds are busy behind the scenes trying to repair the rift.  A close election between Rossi and Democratic incumbent Patty Murray is expected, and Didier’s 12 percent primary vote might be crucial.

More details as they become available.

Nobody can seem to make heads or tails out of what Clint Didier refusing to get behind Rossi may mean for November. Some think it’ll matter a lot. Others see it as a challenge to overcome. Try this on: it doesn’t mean a darn thing. In fact, it could be to Rossi’s distinct advantage.

But wait you say, doesn’t Dino need that 12% to win in November. Well, yes and no.

A large chunk of that 12% came from Eastern Washington voters. Many of these folks likely supported Clint because he’s a hometown hero. Do they have some beef with Dino? Probably not — and expect to see him make plenty of stops in places like Pasco, Walla Walla, Ellensburg, and Yakima.

If Rossi can set himself apart from the loud (but ultimately small faction) of social conservative elements that supported Didier, while at the same time, hitting Patty Murray on fiscal issues — he can probably keep independents safely in his column well through November.

Furthermore, Rossi shouldn’t have to worry too much about a portion of Didier’s supporters casting their ballots into the trash instead of the ballot box on Election Day. He has the support of Tea Party favorites like Senator Jim DeMint, and Senator Scott Brown is due in town soon for a fundraiser. Republicans in the state are hungry for a win after years of losses; and there’s still an air of unfinished business for Rossi’s loss to Gregoire in 2004 and 2008.

If anything, the impetus is on Didier to heal the rift. Already, an email to supporters has gone out, encouraging them to hold onto their Didier for Senate signs for 2012.  If Clint Didier follows through with his threat to hold some of his 12% hostage in 2010, he will absolutely have to face Maria Cantwell in 2012 without the support of most Republicans (those represented by Dino Rossi’s 34%). 

To a man, the other 10 Republican Senate candidates that were in the race have graciously conceded and thrown their support behind the candidate with the greatest chance of beating Patty Murray.  They did this not just because it is the smart thing for those with future political plans, but because they realized that, for all practical purposes, they all shared the same basic conservative principles.  This explains why no one broke away from the pack (before Rossi announced), there was really very little policy substance to differentiate the candidates.  In the end, it was simply a matter of who was most likely to succeed.

Whether Didier stays in the game or not, he is largely irrelevant.  Rossi will continue his campaign, politely ignore Clint’s protests and demands, and largely benefit from the comparison to a more “extreme” figure.

Seattle’s suburban crescent, once heavily Republican territory but in recent years the safe domain of “pro-Business Democrats,” is competitive territory once again. Unsurprisingly, the top issues? Jobs and the Economy.

Cut to the TV ad:

Look for that message and others from Bennett to be played repeatedly on TV between now and Election Day.

So is Dino saying, “Fuck you” to those people [who supported Didier]? “Fuck you, I don’t need your votes? I can win with 33 percent”

This was the second incident of F-bombing by the Didier campaign in the last few weeks.  During the botched Didier-Akers joint webcast, staffers could be heard on-air referring to a “clusterfuck.”

Rossi, of course, said no such thing. He is simply refusing to submit to a laundry list of demands that Didier says Rossi must meet before Didier will endorse Rossi.  Rossi understandably rejected those demands. Can you think of any other candidate that polled just 12% of the vote that successfully made any demands on a victorious candidate? This is not Czechoslovakia and Rossi isn’t Neville Chamberlain.

And by the way Ms. Potty Mouth, Dino doesn’t have just 33%:

The first KING 5 Senate poll for the 2010 general election shows Republican Dino Rossi is actually ahead of Democratic incumbent Patty Murray, 52% to 45%.

In most polls leading up to this week’s primary election and on primary night, Murray was in the lead. Primary election results placed Murray 13 points ahead of Rossi, but Rossi splitting the Republican vote with Clint Didier who got 12%, and Paul Akers, with 3%.

Oops.

I agree with Caleb Hannan at the Daily Weekly.  Rossi is better off ignoring Didier’s demands.  In any case, this cannot end well for Didier and his Super Bowl ring-sized ego.  And if Rossi loses a very winnable election with the U.S. Senate at stake, Didier may want to consider growing alfalfa in Uzbekistan.

Finally, here’s some advice to the Washington Campaign for Liberty, whose members backed Didier so vociferously.  I generally respect the membership of the C4L, who other than a few crazies,  are very thoughtful and intelligent.  They realize that they can only advance their causes by forming coalitions with other groups.

Didier’s high school jock testosteroning, as echoed by cheerleader Jerkes, is making him radioactive.  Take care you don’t get contaminated yourself.

State Rep. Jaime Herrera came in a close 2nd place, and will face Heck in the General Election.

U.S. Senate

Boy, SurveyUSA really nailed this one. No surprises at all. The only drama left is whether the man who has garnered the most statewide Republican votes of any other candidate over the last decade in Washington decides to let himself be “coached.” Clint Didier’s refusal to leave the gridiron is more embarrassing than Brett Favre’s continual retirements. And it looks like Paul Akers will have ended up paying somewhere between $20-$30 per vote received. Ouch. That’s hardly “lean.”

Adding up all the Republican votes, this race is going to be very, very close. With possible control of the Senate on the line, Murray vs. Rossi promises to be big and a possible bellwether for Republicans nationwide.

Congressional District 1

The primary battle between Republicans James Watkins and Matthew Burke got nasty as of late. Watkins doubled up Burke, but adding both Watkins and Burke’s votes together still leaves Jay Inslee, whose next election will likely be for Governor of Washington in 2012, with a commanding lead.

Congressional District 2

Rick Larsen is in big, big trouble. This one could be a pickup for Republicans if John Koster can get financial backing.

Congressional District 3

Again, no surprises. It’s Denny Heck vs. Jaime Herrera. David Hedrick hurt David Castillo. A lot. Most of Hedrick’s votes likely would have gone to Castillo. But in any case, Herrera’s base in populous Clark County clearly helped here.

If the GOP can heal its wounds after a bitter primary battle between Herrera and Castillo, this looks like a pickup. Watch for lots of national money and attention pouring in for the general.

Congressional District 8

“The Sheriff” Dave Reichert seems to be leading comfortably against Microsoft millionaire Suzan DelBene.

Congressional District 9

Just 52% for incumbent Democrat Adam Smith must be a little troubling for him. However, leading GOP challenger Dick Muri has to be a little disappointed with his failure to approach 30%. Jim Postma, who spent and campaigned a lot less than Muri, got nearly 20%. If Muri can work harder on name recognition, he has an outside shot.

Legislative District 1

First-timer Heidi Munson has to be very happy with a very respectable 48% and a good chance to pick up an open seat for Republicans

Legislative District 2

While not really a pickup for Republicans, Jennifer Dunn Leadership Institute grad and dairy executive JT Wilcox is thoroughly trouncing RINO Tom Campbell.

Legislative District 6

The race for state senate in LD6 is going to be the most expensive in the state. Republican Michael Baumgartner had to prove that he is competitive to keep money coming in for his race against incumbent Chis Marr and his PAC dollars. Baumgartner accomplished that, currently ahead 51-49. This could be a big Republican pickup.

JDLI grad Shelly O’Quinn seems to have lost to former Republican state rep John Ahern in a bid to take on Democrat state rep John Driscoll. Ahern likely had the benefit of greater name recognition and a conservative/moderate split in the Spokane County Republican Party didn’t help O’Quinn either

Legislative District 17

Republican Brian Peck seems poised to upset incumbent Democrat Rep. Tim Probst, with 52-48 thus far.

Ditto with Republican Paul Harris running for Deb Wallace’s open seat.

Legislative District 21

Republican Elizabeth Scott will face off against incumbent state rep Marko Liias. At 52%, Liaas could be vulnerable.

Legislative District 25

House Majority Caucus Chair Dawn Morrell is in huge trouble, only garnering 41%. Young GOP upstart Hans Zeiger is poised to make this a huge upset in November.

Legislative District 26

Republican Doug Richards looks competitive against incumbent Democrat Rep. Larry Seaquist.

Legislative District 28

Republican Steve O’Ban is in a dead heat with Troy Kelley. Could be another GOP pickup. Ditto with Paul Wagemann against Tami Green in Position 2.

Legislative District 30

Democrat Senator Tracey Eide is facing a tough challenge from Tony Moore.

Katrina Asay looks like she has a good chance to hold on to Skip Priest’s seat for Republicans.

Legislative District 31

This could get interesting. It looks like it may be an all-Republican general with Matt Richardson facing off against incumbent Sen. Pam Roach. Roach, if you remember, successfully sued Richardson over statement he made in the voter’s pamphlet.

Legislative District 35

Looks like Republican Dan Griffey will give Democratic state representative Kathy Haigh a run for her money.

Legislative District 41

Republican Steve Litzow is neck and neck with incumbent state senator Randy Gordon. This one could easily be a GOP pickup.

Peter Dunbar is doing the same on the House side with rep. Marcie Maxwell

42nd Legislative District

In another possible huge disaster for Democrats, Vincent Buys is ahead of Rep. Kelli Linville.   Linville is the chair of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, responsible for last year’s budget disaster.

Legislative District 44

Dave Schmidt has a good chance to knock off Democratic state senator Steve Hobbs. And Bob McCaughan looks competitive against Democrat Hans Dunshee in the House Position 1 race.

Legislative District 45

In one of the biggest upsets brewing, in addition to the Baumgartner-Marr race, Republican Andy Hill is ahead of ultra-liberal state senator Eric Oemig 51-49.

Republican Kevin Haistings is close to Dem state rep Roger Goodman

Legislative District 47

In another shocker, Republican Joe Fain, another JDLI graduate, is up by 10 on Democratic state senator Claudia Kauffman.

And Democrat Rep. Geoff Simpson, charged with domestic violence, failed to get over 40%. He’s clearly in hot water. Simpson will face Republican Mark Hargrove in the general. JDLI grad Nancy Wyatt obviously struggled with name recognition against Hargrove, who faced Simpson in 2008.

Legislative District 48

JDLI grad Gregg Bennett only trails Democratic state senator Rodney Tom by 4 points.

Former state GOP chair Diane Tebelius has a lot of work to do to unseat state representative Ross Hunter.

——————————————————————————————–In summary, it looks like a good year to be a Republican in Washington.  The swing districts in the Seattle suburbs in particular seem to be trending GOP again, which is key.

Dino Rossi is probably at even money to win the U.S. Senate seat.  But he is going to have to really concentrate on vote-rich King County, where Murray has 58%.

Jaime Herrera will likely take back a Congressional seat for Republicans, and John Koster as well.  That will give the GOP a 5-4 advantage in Congress.

Republicans need to pick up seven seats to regain control of the state senate. Currently, they are ahead in four races (Baumgartner, Fain, Litzow, and Hill.) Three others are very close (Bennett, Moore, Schmidt.) Not likely, but possible.

In the House, Republicans need 13 seats for a majority. While not likely to get there, I predict a pickup of somewhere around 8-10 seats for the GOP.

So I don’t think Republicans win back the Washington Legislature this year, but they will be well poised to do so in 2012, when Rob McKenna marches to the Governor’s Mansion.

And for those keeping score at home, of the five graduates of the inaugural class of the Jennifer Dunn Leadership Institute last year running for the Legislature this year, two are way ahead (Fain, Wilcox,) one is very competitive (Bennett,)  and two look like they won’t go through to the general (Wyatt, O’Quinn.)  Not bad.