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	<title>No Brainer Trades</title>
	
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		<title>The Little Discussed But Widely Used Measured Move: Video Discussion of Most Relevant Concepts</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/NoBrainerTrades/~3/YyWvTv_U-XE/the-little-discuss-but-widely-used-measured-move-video-discussion-of-most-relevant-concepts.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/05/the-little-discuss-but-widely-used-measured-move-video-discussion-of-most-relevant-concepts.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 25 May 2013 15:00:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve W.</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Trading Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Measured Move]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trend Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Video]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nobrainertrades.com/?p=5026</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Here goes yet another attempt at me making a video: likely packed with many significant warning signs of what happens to the communication part of your brain when you trade too much. Writing is underrated.  In it, I cover the most relevant concepts in our measured move article, as well a brief talk about inner trendlines. Links: Measured Moves on Trendline Breaks Adaptive Entries Using Acceleration Launchpads And many examples [...]</p><p>The post <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/05/the-little-discuss-but-widely-used-measured-move-video-discussion-of-most-relevant-concepts.html">The Little Discussed But Widely Used Measured Move: Video Discussion of Most Relevant Concepts</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com">No Brainer Trades</a>.</p>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here goes yet another attempt at me making a video: likely packed with many significant warning signs of what happens to the communication part of your brain when you trade too much. Writing is underrated.  In it, I cover the most relevant concepts in our measured move article, as well a brief talk about inner trendlines.</p>
<p>Links:</p>
<p><strong><a title="Measured Moves on Trendline Breaks" href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/02/measured-movements-trendline-breaks-taking-profits-redesigned.html">Measured Moves on Trendline Breaks</a></strong></p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/02/mechanical-trend-trading-strategy-adaptive-entries-using-acceleration-launchpads.html">Adaptive Entries Using Acceleration Launchpads</a></strong></p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/category/trading-strategy-examples">And many examples in our Quick Charts section</a></strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/05/the-little-discuss-but-widely-used-measured-move-video-discussion-of-most-relevant-concepts.html">The Little Discussed But Widely Used Measured Move: Video Discussion of Most Relevant Concepts</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com">No Brainer Trades</a>.</p><div class="feedflare">
<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/NoBrainerTrades?a=YyWvTv_U-XE:sZ8EnscmHHI:yIl2AUoC8zA"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/NoBrainerTrades?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/NoBrainerTrades?a=YyWvTv_U-XE:sZ8EnscmHHI:qj6IDK7rITs"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/NoBrainerTrades?d=qj6IDK7rITs" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/NoBrainerTrades?a=YyWvTv_U-XE:sZ8EnscmHHI:V_sGLiPBpWU"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/NoBrainerTrades?i=YyWvTv_U-XE:sZ8EnscmHHI:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/NoBrainerTrades?a=YyWvTv_U-XE:sZ8EnscmHHI:-BTjWOF_DHI"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/NoBrainerTrades?i=YyWvTv_U-XE:sZ8EnscmHHI:-BTjWOF_DHI" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/NoBrainerTrades?a=YyWvTv_U-XE:sZ8EnscmHHI:dnMXMwOfBR0"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/NoBrainerTrades?d=dnMXMwOfBR0" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/NoBrainerTrades?a=YyWvTv_U-XE:sZ8EnscmHHI:gIN9vFwOqvQ"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/NoBrainerTrades?i=YyWvTv_U-XE:sZ8EnscmHHI:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/NoBrainerTrades?a=YyWvTv_U-XE:sZ8EnscmHHI:F7zBnMyn0Lo"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/NoBrainerTrades?i=YyWvTv_U-XE:sZ8EnscmHHI:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/NoBrainerTrades?a=YyWvTv_U-XE:sZ8EnscmHHI:TzevzKxY174"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/NoBrainerTrades?d=TzevzKxY174" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/NoBrainerTrades?a=YyWvTv_U-XE:sZ8EnscmHHI:l6gmwiTKsz0"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/NoBrainerTrades?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/NoBrainerTrades?a=YyWvTv_U-XE:sZ8EnscmHHI:D7DqB2pKExk"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/NoBrainerTrades?i=YyWvTv_U-XE:sZ8EnscmHHI:D7DqB2pKExk" border="0"></img></a>
</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/NoBrainerTrades/~4/YyWvTv_U-XE" height="1" width="1"/>]]></content:encoded>
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		<item>
		<title>EUR/USD 2.0 Measured Move on Trendline Break</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/NoBrainerTrades/~3/wE6ZfvOHC1Y/eurusd-2-0-measured-move-on-trendline-break.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/05/eurusd-2-0-measured-move-on-trendline-break.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 May 2013 21:58:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve W.</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Trading Strategy Examples: Quick Charts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Measured Movements]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trading Price]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nobrainertrades.com/?p=5008</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Yet another great example, this one uploaded by a reader of ours, Geoff, name creator of the highly acclaimed &#8220;Bill Murray&#8221; pattern (yet to be created). Related article explaining the concept can be found here: Measured Moves on Trendline Breaks: Taking Profits, Redesigned</p><p>The post <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/05/eurusd-2-0-measured-move-on-trendline-break.html">EUR/USD 2.0 Measured Move on Trendline Break</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com">No Brainer Trades</a>.</p>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yet another great example, this one uploaded by a reader of ours, Geoff, name creator of the highly acclaimed &#8220;Bill Murray&#8221; pattern (yet to be created). Related article explaining the concept can be found here:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/02/measured-movements-trendline-breaks-taking-profits-redesigned.html">Measured Moves on Trendline Breaks: Taking Profits, Redesigned</a></p>
<p><a href="http://1.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Measured-Move-EURUSD-2.00.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-5009" alt="Measured Move EURUSD 2.00" src="http://3.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Measured-Move-EURUSD-2.00-1024x756.png" width="600" height="442" /></a></p>
<p>The post <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/05/eurusd-2-0-measured-move-on-trendline-break.html">EUR/USD 2.0 Measured Move on Trendline Break</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com">No Brainer Trades</a>.</p><div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/NoBrainerTrades/~4/wE6ZfvOHC1Y" height="1" width="1"/>]]></content:encoded>
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		<item>
		<title>E-Mini S&amp;P Harmonic Confluence</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/NoBrainerTrades/~3/POateLcOIek/e-mini-sp-harmonic-confluence.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/e-mini-sp-harmonic-confluence.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 Mar 2013 15:52:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve W.</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Trading Strategy Examples: Quick Charts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[E-Minis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Measured Move]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trading Price]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nobrainertrades.com/?p=4994</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Posted over at https://www.tradingview.com/v/DIpAE35T/ EMini Rare Harmonic Confluence by nobrainertrades on TradingView.com</p><p>The post <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/e-mini-sp-harmonic-confluence.html">E-Mini S&#038;P Harmonic Confluence</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com">No Brainer Trades</a>.</p>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Posted over at <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/v/DIpAE35T/">https://www.tradingview.com/v/DIpAE35T/</a></p>
<p><!-- TradingView Chart BEGIN --><br />
<script type="text/javascript" src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/tv.js"></script><script type="text/javascript">// <![CDATA[
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tradingview_embed_options.chart = 'DIpAE35T';
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<p><a href="https://www.tradingview.com/v/DIpAE35T/">EMini Rare Harmonic Confluence</a> by <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/u/nobrainertrades/">nobrainertrades</a> on <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/">TradingView.com</a></p>
<p><!-- TradingView Chart END --></p>
<p>The post <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/e-mini-sp-harmonic-confluence.html">E-Mini S&#038;P Harmonic Confluence</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com">No Brainer Trades</a>.</p><div class="feedflare">
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		<slash:comments>4</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Event-Driven Spikes in Forex Prices – Defining, Measured Moves and Trading</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/NoBrainerTrades/~3/kqjj1hP-l_c/event-driven-spikes-in-forex-prices-defining-measuring-and-trading.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/event-driven-spikes-in-forex-prices-defining-measuring-and-trading.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Mar 2013 20:42:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve W.</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Trading Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Measured Movements]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spike Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trading Price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trend Trading]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nobrainertrades.com/?p=4965</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>A few weeks back we covered measured moves on trend line breaks using a 2.0 (100% extension). Regular visitors to this site have seen it used in other contexts as well, namely the Golden Ratio (1.618), cited quite a few times in our Quick Charts section, as well as our social media channels. I have also received more than a mentions via readers on these channels, emails etc., that tells me [...]</p><p>The post <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/event-driven-spikes-in-forex-prices-defining-measuring-and-trading.html">Event-Driven Spikes in Forex Prices &#8211; Defining, Measured Moves and Trading</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com">No Brainer Trades</a>.</p>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A few weeks back we covered <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/02/measured-movements-trendline-breaks-taking-profits-redesigned.html"><span style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration: underline;">measured moves on trend line breaks</span></a></span></span> using a 2.0 (100% extension). Regular visitors to this site have seen it used in other contexts as well, namely the Golden Ratio (1.618), cited quite a few times in our <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/category/trading-strategy-examples"><span style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration: underline;">Quick Charts section</span></a></span></span>, as well as our social media channels. I have also received more than a mentions via readers on these channels, emails etc., that tells me that the the crowd is listening and we&#8217;re starting to get closer to seeing the light behind these exhaustion points. Today we&#8217;re getting back to measured moves, but in the context of volatility.</p>
<p>This topic is one which happens on rare occasions, though certainly during times where uniformed traders tend to get hit the hardest. Because of its rarity, I was going to hold off on this post, until I realized #2 in the previous sentence.</p>
<p>First, let&#8217;s bring everyone down to ground level. What many traders classify as spikes simply are not, and therefore we need to tiptoe through this, at least in the beginning. I want to explain how this market normally reacts to events, what a true spike is, how they can be identified, measured and traded.</p>
<p>True spikes are event-driven. On any normal day without surprises, this a forward-looking and oftentimes slow-to-learn market. Steady trends or more likely, trading ranges are the norm. Humans and their algos are trained to trade &#8220;into&#8221; events that have yet to occur. In other words, the market expects something to happen, and in expectation of that event, price trades higher or lower before the &#8220;deadline&#8221;.</p>
<p>A while back on this site I posted several examples of this. You can find one <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2012/01/expectation-versus-reality-expectation-pays-again.html"><span style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration: underline;">here</span></a></span></span>. In this particular case, Moody&#8217;s threatened to downgrade several European nations. On the back of no change in status or other strong influence, the Euro traded lower in the month that ensued. When the downgrade finally happened, EUR/USD had the opposite &#8220;intuitive&#8221; effect, and actually traded higher.</p>
<p>But what&#8217;s intuitive? A new trader would think that an event like that would sink the Euro, not cause it to move higher, but well, it already did. A month ago. You missed the boat, buddy. The market already knew about this possibility when Moody&#8217;s placed these countries on outlook negative, and so the event, which didn&#8217;t even happen yet, was already &#8220;priced in&#8221;. When Moody&#8217;s pulled the trigger and downgraded these countries, informed participants viewed the Euro as oversold, and traded it slightly higher.</p>
<p>Intuition, when you look at it this way, is really just common sense, but indeed you really have to think of the pattern of events before you start to do what long-term traders do naturally.</p>
<h4><span style="color: #ff6600;"><strong>Quantitative Event Trading Versus Over-Simplistic Assumptions</strong></span></h4>
<p>Spikes don&#8217;t differ much in this regard, they just happen over a smaller window of time. A spike occurs in the first place because the market has just learned new information, information which is not yet &#8220;priced in&#8221;. Depending on the severity of the information, the spike will be large or small, and continue or fail. To explain this concept a little better, I&#8217;m going to cite what several event-driven quantitative strategies do on a regular basis:</p>
<p>Developers of these event-based (spike) trading strategies are able to quantify data retrieved from economic data releases rather easily. They just take the deviation from the actual and expected number, couple it with other economic data releases that happen at that point in time (if necessary), take the average change in price before and after certain deviations occur, the timeframe in which these changes happen, and are able to optimize a strategy based on this and any other technical factors they wish. They have a history of data (numbers) with which to work.</p>
<p>In all of the factors listed above, numbers are available, and machines need numbers. But what happens when a spike is caused by a comment from a high ranking government official? No numbers there, just words. Yes, words.</p>
<p>What about words? Words, when it comes to programming, can be numbers. Let me explain:</p>
<p>Words are weights, when measured against each other in relation to price movements. &#8220;downgrade&#8221; carries a different weight than &#8220;stimulus&#8221; or &#8220;defend&#8221; or &#8220;protect the currency&#8221;, etc., depending on who it is coming from and the context of other other words used at the time.</p>
<p>High and low ranking government officials can be weights. The high ranking government official weighs more than a low ranking government official, etc. A ratings agency, and the words used in their press releases, can be weight. Etc. etc.</p>
<p>So when you take an industry standard news feed, assign weights (numbers) to everything mentioned above against average price movements, time, other technical factors, etc., you end up with a sample of data that can be optimized into a potentially profitable trading strategy.</p>
<p>And while I know it all might sound ridiculous at first, if you think I&#8217;m just pulling your leg on all of this, think again. While I&#8217;m giving a very simplified explanation of the concept, it is indeed used in mostly all markets by various participants, and definitely in this one.</p>
<h4><span style="color: #ff6600;"><strong>Ignorance is Not Bliss</strong></span></h4>
<p>The reason I&#8217;m spending any time explaining what I did above was just to hopefully open your eyes as to just how complex deciding whether or not a spike will continue, can be. It is not for the beginner, yet most beginners drool over the potential fast money that can be made trading these things. And most get killed in the process, because they&#8217;re basically showing up at the <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gunfight_at_the_O.K._Corral" target="_blank"><span style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration: underline;">O.K. Corral</span></a></span></span> with a BB gun. They have few, if any statistics, with which to work, or optimized strategy, etc. Not to mention latency in execution issues, etc.</p>
<p>As rare as spikes can be, absolute conviction in terms of their continuation is even more rare. As an example, for myself, with everything I know at this point, it might happen 2 &#8211; 5 times per month depending on the context, and 5 is pushing it. I&#8217;m just human. Any other human with a normal capacity to learn is probably going to fall in similar territory.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m talking about seeing an initial first reaction to the data or event, and within seconds of digesting the headlines saying to myself &#8220;yes, so long as nothing else interferes, this is going to continue, no question about it.&#8221; But after the spike occurs, what then? What other means of assessment do we have?</p>
<h4><strong><span style="color: #ff6600;">Defining a Spike</span></strong></h4>
<p>Just because price is accelerated compared to recent previous history does not mean that you have yourself a true spike. As we discussed in last week&#8217;s article, price commonly accelerates right ahead of trendlines, only to hit, and reverse. These aren&#8217;t spikes, but rather just normal market behavior. Newer traders are likely to confuse this with spikes. So before you even THINK of entering a long or short trade attempting to &#8220;follow the flows&#8221; make damn sure you don&#8217;t have a trendline dead ahead. That&#8217;s called chasing price, not thinking like a trader.</p>
<p><em>A true spike consists of at least one single bar with very large range at the <strong>beginning</strong> of the movement. I generally refer to 5 minute bars when I say this. Smaller bars stacked on top of one another in a parabolic movement aren&#8217;t spikes. They are just aggressive trends. </em>Please make sure you are covering this idea first an foremost before reading onward.</p>
<p>If you learned anything from the information that we just discussed above, spikes need some form of information surprise in order to act as a catalyst for the movement. Only then, based on that catalyst, can we then start to assess the longevity of the movement.</p>
<p>But to sit here and list my own manifesto of reasoning behind spike continuation versus failure is basically futile. I would probably be here for weeks. And &#8220;summing it up&#8221; does little, as well. The description above should get you moving in the right direction in that regard. But from a technical perspective, that&#8217;s another story, one which we explain through a few concepts now:</p>
<h4><strong><span style="color: #ff6600;">The Breaks</span></strong></h4>
<p>Most people would define a spike as price swiftly breaking out of a range. To some extent, I agree with this, but when you describe &#8220;the range&#8221; as a strictly horizontal block in price, I disagree. Here are a couple of very recent examples to show you what I&#8217;m talking about here:</p>
<p><a href="http://1.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Trendline-Breaks-EURUSD-Forex.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-4966" alt="Trendline Breaks EURUSD Forex" src="http://1.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Trendline-Breaks-EURUSD-Forex-1024x754.jpg" width="600" height="441" /></a></p>
<p>Shocker I was going to use diagonal trendlines to do this, right? But why would I use trend lines as opposed to horizontal &#8220;blocks&#8221;? Well, one of the earliest books I read on trading in my early days told me to buy such a breakout on a horizontal block in price. Long story short, I got slaughtered. &#8220;False breakouts&#8221; (another term I loathe, but for the sake of simplicity I&#8217;ll use here) are very common. These &#8220;false breakouts&#8221; poke below or above a range, and reverse. There is nothing &#8220;false&#8221; about these breakouts, by the way &#8211; maybe &#8220;false&#8221; to the person that doesn&#8217;t quite understand them &#8211; they are just another part of price, but that&#8217;s another blog post.</p>
<p>This concept is actually much more easily done manually than it is structurally. First of all, trading any true spike in price, the likelihood of you entering within the first 5 minutes should be rare, unless you&#8217;re doing this mechanically (with a program) and direct access to a massive pooled ECN or other direct access network. Many people reading this might be wondering about the tons of spike trading software out there. Hmmm, yeah, well good luck with that. Here at NBT we tend to favor reality and can&#8217;t say we are fans of the people telling others that this kind of trading is in any way acceptable on a sub-par platform with low access to liquidity. Please read on.</p>
<p>You want the initial whipsaws to subside and a true direction to be declared. Sometimes, it will happen after the first 5 minutes. Others, it will take as much as 20-60 minutes before an optimal or confirmed entry is found, depending on the conditions and catalyst.</p>
<h4><span style="color: #ff6600;"><strong>Measuring Spikes with the Golden Ratio</strong></span></h4>
<p>One of the primary goals of this article is to help train you NOT to fade sharp drives in price. When there is uncertainty in the air, most traders no darn well they shouldn&#8217;t be doing anything, yet they do it anyway. If you suffer from continuously &#8220;picking&#8221; at countertrend trades, please pay special attention:</p>
<p>There are two primary reasons we would want to measure a spike in the first place:</p>
<p>1. To find a potential exhaustion point at which to take profits if we are trading in the direction of a spike, or<br />
2. To fade the movement</p>
<p>This is the second writing I have here now about measured moves. In the last article about this topic, we only discussed using 2.0 (100%) on a trendline break.</p>
<p>Spikes can be measured in several ways, and fair warning: what you see below might be a little controversial to long-time strategists, but like everything else on this website, I write about what works for me, not what I read in books. So without further adieu, let&#8217;s take a look at some examples:</p>
<p>All charts below are 5-min timeframes.</p>
<p>Spike moving high:</p>
<p><a href="http://2.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Spike-Measured-Move-1.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-4968" alt="Spike Measured Move 1" src="http://3.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Spike-Measured-Move-1-1024x757.jpg" width="600" height="443" /></a></p>
<p>And again on the way back down:</p>
<p><a href="http://2.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Spike-Measured-Move-4.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-4971" alt="Spike Measured Move 4" src="http://1.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Spike-Measured-Move-4-1024x731.jpg" width="600" height="428" /></a></p>
<p>Nonfarm Payroll Announcement:</p>
<p><a href="http://2.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Spike-Measured-Move-2.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-4969" alt="Spike Measured Move 2" src="http://2.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Spike-Measured-Move-2-1024x757.jpg" width="600" height="443" /></a></p>
<p>Slow but steady following this move:</p>
<p><a href="http://2.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Spike-Measured-Move-3.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-4970" alt="Spike Measured Move 3" src="http://2.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Spike-Measured-Move-3-1024x761.jpg" width="600" height="445" /></a></p>
<p>British Pound:</p>
<p><a href="http://2.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Spike-Measured-Move-5.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-4973" alt="Spike Measured Move 5" src="http://3.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Spike-Measured-Move-5-1024x734.jpg" width="600" height="430" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Another</strong> alternative to measuring moves on spikes is to simply use the same concept we discussed several weeks ago: <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/02/measured-movements-trendline-breaks-taking-profits-redesigned.html"><span style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration: underline;">trend line breaks and 100% extensions</span></a></span></span>. One of our readers was quick to find the bottom using this same concept following Nonfarm Payrolls (confluence with the same chart above). <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/100-measured-move-target-holds-post-nonfarm-payroll.html"><span style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration: underline;">Click here</span></a></span></span> to see his chart. Confluence&#8230;..rules&#8230;&#8230;.always.</p>
<h4><strong><span style="color: #ff6600;">Spike Failures</span></strong></h4>
<p>Spike &#8220;failures&#8221; are just as common, if not more, than spikes that continue themselves. The reasoning behind is pretty simple: high frequency algorithms are trading right off the initial data release. As the data gets digested, reversal or continuation is determined as traders commit.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s not too much to speak of here from a technical perspective other than the fact of watching what happens circa the initial pullback in price. Here is a perfect example of what I&#8217;m talking about:</p>
<p><a href="http://3.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Busted-Spike.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-4974" alt="Busted Spike" src="http://2.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Busted-Spike-1024x736.jpg" width="600" height="431" /></a></p>
<p>So bottom line: heed extreme caution around that initial pullback point. Chasing the movement without any form of confirmation in terms of continuation is going to be your killer. Quick stop losses in quick markets.</p>
<h4><strong><span style="color: #ff6600;">Volatility Is Not a Toy</span></strong></h4>
<p>Before we get too far, I&#8217;m actually going to stop. Why? Because I know this concept can be taken out of context. I want to make sure I reiterate the key points here:</p>
<p>1. True spikes that continue are rare. If you&#8217;re attempting to trade in the direction of a spike, please refer to <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/02/mechanical-trend-trading-strategy-adaptive-entries-using-acceleration-launchpads.html"><span style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration: underline;">this article</span></a></span></span> in terms of catching major pullback retracement points, but use extreme caution and be sure to carefully asses the situation well in advance of trading time. Just be prepared and use common sense.</p>
<p>2. Spike reversals are just as common, if not more, than spike continuations.</p>
<p>3. When in doubt, stay out. Measuring a sharp move in price is one thing, but it is only one part of the equation.</p>
<p>Indeed, one of my subconscious goals for today was to just raise awareness as to how ill-conceived commonplace strategies surrounding spike trading can be. Spike trading is perhaps the riskiest and toughest of all forms of trading, yet for some reason a idea exists that makes it seems like an easy process.</p>
<p>More to come on this topic&#8230;..still getting started around these parts. Thanks for stopping by and see you soon.</p>
<p>Steve</p>
<p>Chart Sources: <a href="http://tradingview.com/" target="_blank">http://www.tradingview.com</a></p>
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<p>The post <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/event-driven-spikes-in-forex-prices-defining-measuring-and-trading.html">Event-Driven Spikes in Forex Prices &#8211; Defining, Measured Moves and Trading</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com">No Brainer Trades</a>.</p><div class="feedflare">
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		<title>How One Of Our Readers Used Evernote to Kick a Horrible Trading Habit</title>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 10 Mar 2013 17:47:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve W.</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Routine and Psychology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Productivity]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nobrainertrades.com/?p=4940</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>I have mentioned several times on this site that keeping a catalog of your past trades and other key concepts in a separate folder on your desktop is a great way to have constant reminders for future activity. But admittedly, doing it this way can be difficult to manage and find what you need in such short time. There is zero question in my mind that people miss or fumble [...]</p><p>The post <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/how-one-of-our-readers-used-evernote-to-kick-a-horrible-trading-habit.html">How One Of Our Readers Used Evernote to Kick a Horrible Trading Habit</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com">No Brainer Trades</a>.</p>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have mentioned several times on this site that keeping a catalog of your past trades and other key concepts in a separate folder on your desktop is a great way to have constant reminders for future activity. But admittedly, doing it this way can be difficult to manage and find what you need in such short time.</p>
<p>There is zero question in my mind that people miss or fumble on potentially great trades due to the fact that they simply forget key patterns, concepts, or other relevant statistics. This statement is of course a lot more valid with newer traders, but it doesn&#8217;t matter how skilled you are. It is going to happen to everyone, at some point in time.</p>
<p>For one particular reader, he realized this was the case. He told me that it made no difference what his past errors were because he kept on forgetting many of the technicals when it came time to trade, just because they weren&#8217;t engrained in his head. We just talked about &#8220;floating and &#8220;static&#8221; knowledge <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/02/correctly-applied-knowledge-is-power-bridging-the-gap-between-learning-and-application.html"><span style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration: underline;">not too long ago on this site</span></a></span></span>, and so I could easily nod my head when I read this.</p>
<p>When you&#8217;re in the heat of battle, you don&#8217;t have time to start digging through book, papers or yes, even folders on your desktop, just to recall one simple little nuance. And I&#8217;ll be one of the first to admit: no matter how long I continue to trade, I still can&#8217;t remember all of the regular statistics on price pattern movements or failures, bar patterns, etc. I still look at references because I simply can&#8217;t remember it all, especially if I didn&#8217;t create the concept in my own mind. And I don&#8217;t trust programs to do this work for me. Even the most skillfully coded price indicators can lead me in the wrong direction, and I don&#8217;t want anything clouding my judgement.</p>
<p>So that&#8217;s where Evernote steps in.</p>
<p>One thing in common with all of the &#8220;turnaround traders&#8221; that have had contact me over the years is that they are all well organized. It&#8217;s very clear from the moment I get the email who is scattered, and who&#8217;s got an organized mental inventory. This one particular reader has told me more than once that organization, or just remembering things, was a huge issue of his.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m a huge fan of Evernote, and I literally use it everyday. This post was even written in Evernote before I uploaded it to this site. It works on my PC, my Mac, my iPhone and iPad, and it is literally there wherever I need it, so long as the device is in my hands. I use it for my trading notes, workout routines, NBT posts, and anything else I need in the future. It stores images and other media files as well, and it behaves a lot like Microsoft Outlook, so I was already generally used to the interface when I started using it.</p>
<p>Many people that are new to Evernote don&#8217;t see the value. Just like price action, it tends to look boring. And just like price action, it&#8217;s immensely valuable.</p>
<h4><strong><span style="color: #ff6600;">Our reader would…</span></strong></h4>
<p>…literally copy materials (images mostly) of common areas to find support and resistance levels that matter, trades that &#8220;looked&#8221; difficult to an untrained at at first, as well as common candlestick patterns which he used for confirmation when the levels got hit.</p>
<p>He would use chart examples, or just copy images from reputable websites and paste them into a new note. Evernote allows you to create &#8220;Notebooks&#8221; of similarly-related material, so he would have one for each major concept. And when the urgency of time became a factor, all it took was a simple click to see what he wanted, instead of digging through folders.</p>
<p>He only has 2 monitors, but says that&#8217;s all says he needs, which I don&#8217;t doubt. The first monitor has his charting and execution software, the second, Evernote, with everything else (Ransquawk feed, etc) running in the background.</p>
<p>And so with some simple adjustments, he&#8217;s ready to go, and told me that once he started using this program comfortably, he noticed a big change in his day to day routine.</p>
<h4><strong><span style="color: #ff6600;">Versions of Evernote</span></strong></h4>
<p>Evernote is available on <a href="http://evernote.com/evernote/" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration: underline;">PC or Mac</span></span></a>. The interface looks very similar to Microsoft Outlook but instead sending emails, you&#8217;re just taking notes. Evernote then stores everything and syncs it between literally, all of your devices.</p>
<p>It is also available in the <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/evernote/id281796108?mt=8" target="_blank"><span style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration: underline;">iTunes Store for iPhones and iPads</span></a></span></span> and the <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.evernote&amp;hl=en" target="_blank"><span style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration: underline;">Google Play store for Android Devices</span></a></span></span>. It is literally everywhere you go.</p>
<h4><strong><span style="color: #ff6600;">Evernote Web Clipper</span></strong></h4>
<p>The <a href="http://evernote.com/webclipper/" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration: underline;">Evernote Web Clipper is an extension</span></span></a> for Google Chrome, Firefox, Safari and Internet Explorer that will instantly take the contents, or part of the contents, of any web page, and create a new note in your Evernote account with the click of a button. Find a good resource for price patterns? Just click the button, and a new note is creates that includes all or part of the web page, with this image.</p>
<h4><strong><span style="color: #ff6600;">Tradingview.com &#8211; No More Fumbling With Images on Your Hard Drive</span></strong></h4>
<p>If all of the scattered images on your hard drive of charts and other notes is an issue, no more excuses.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.tradingview.com/e/" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration: underline;">Tradingview.com</span></span></a> is my preferred source for charts on this site. I use them because of the host of features they have to offer and I like consistency in all of our posts. No matter where I am or what computer I am using (I&#8217;ve got a MacBook Air for a lot of couch-based work) I can easily grab a screenshot and keep everything consistent.</p>
<p><a href="http://3.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/TradingView-Picture-Button.jpg"><img class=" wp-image-4942 alignleft" alt="TradingView Picture Button" src="http://3.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/TradingView-Picture-Button.jpg" width="332" height="222" /></a>TradingView has a neat little feature that takes a static image of your chart, and creates a new, unique webpage with your image. You can then use the Evernote web clipper and immediately create a new note with your chart.</p>
<p>This avoids screen capture software, having to download, name and then find and upload or move your images, which is all admittedly a pain the rear.</p>
<p>Just some weekend brain stew. If it helps, it helps. It can been a huge timesaver, with a lot less fumbling.</p>
<p>Thanks as usual for stopping by and see you soon,<br />
Steve</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/how-one-of-our-readers-used-evernote-to-kick-a-horrible-trading-habit.html">How One Of Our Readers Used Evernote to Kick a Horrible Trading Habit</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com">No Brainer Trades</a>.</p><div class="feedflare">
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		<item>
		<title>100% Measured Move Target Holds Post Nonfarm Payroll</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/NoBrainerTrades/~3/3uRCtWepcB8/100-measured-move-target-holds-post-nonfarm-payroll.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/100-measured-move-target-holds-post-nonfarm-payroll.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Mar 2013 19:12:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve W.</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Trading Strategy Examples: Quick Charts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Measured Move]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trading Price]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nobrainertrades.com/?p=4930</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>EUR/USD hits the breaks at a 100% measured move following Nonfarm Payroll release. Sent in from a good reader via Twitter. This concept is discussed in detail here. Click the image to enlarge.</p><p>The post <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/100-measured-move-target-holds-post-nonfarm-payroll.html">100% Measured Move Target Holds Post Nonfarm Payroll</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com">No Brainer Trades</a>.</p>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>EUR/USD hits the breaks at a 100% measured move following Nonfarm Payroll release. Sent in from a good reader via <span style="color: #008080;"><a href="https://twitter.com/nobrainertrades" target="_blank"><span style="color: #008080;">Twitter</span></a></span>.</p>
<p>This concept is <span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/02/measured-movements-trendline-breaks-taking-profits-redesigned.html"><span style="color: #3366ff;">discussed in detail here</span></a>.</span></p>
<p>Click the image to enlarge.</p>
<p><a href="http://2.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/100-percent-measured-move-nonfarm-payroll.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-4931" alt="100 percent measured move nonfarm payroll" src="http://2.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/100-percent-measured-move-nonfarm-payroll-1024x785.png" width="600" height="459" /></a></p>
<p>The post <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/100-measured-move-target-holds-post-nonfarm-payroll.html">100% Measured Move Target Holds Post Nonfarm Payroll</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com">No Brainer Trades</a>.</p><div class="feedflare">
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		<item>
		<title>2 Measured Moves: 2.0 and 1.618 Using Trendlines – EURUSD, Forex</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/NoBrainerTrades/~3/xD_3HgGlVK8/2-measured-moves-2-0-and-1-618-using-trendlines-eurusd-forex.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/2-measured-moves-2-0-and-1-618-using-trendlines-eurusd-forex.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Mar 2013 23:41:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve W.</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Trading Strategy Examples: Quick Charts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EUR/USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Measured Move]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trading Price]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nobrainertrades.com/?p=4920</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>I swear I&#8217;ll keep posting these every day until this gets the attention it deserves. These concepts are discussed in detail here. And yes, there are other confluence factors not outlined here. Click the images to expand. Charts: http://www.tradingview.com</p><p>The post <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/2-measured-moves-2-0-and-1-618-using-trendlines-eurusd-forex.html">2 Measured Moves: 2.0 and 1.618 Using Trendlines &#8211; EURUSD, Forex</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com">No Brainer Trades</a>.</p>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I swear I&#8217;ll keep posting these every day until this gets the attention it deserves.</p>
<p>These concepts are <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #008080;"><span style="color: #008080; text-decoration: underline;"><a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/02/measured-movements-trendline-breaks-taking-profits-redesigned.html">discussed in detail here</a>.</span></span></span><a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/02/measured-movements-trendline-breaks-taking-profits-redesigned.html"><br />
</a></p>
<p>And yes, there are other confluence factors not outlined here.</p>
<p>Click the images to expand.</p>
<p><a href="http://0.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EURUSD-Measured-Move-2.0-Variant-1.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4921" alt="EURUSD Measured Move 2.0 Variant 1" src="http://1.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EURUSD-Measured-Move-2.0-Variant-1-1024x752.jpg" width="600" height="440" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://2.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Measured-Move-EURUSD-1.618.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4922" alt="Measured Move EURUSD 1.618" src="http://1.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Measured-Move-EURUSD-1.618-1024x758.jpg" width="600" height="444" /></a></p>
<p>Charts: <a href="http://www.tradingview.com" target="_blank">http://www.tradingview.com</a></p>
<p>The post <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/2-measured-moves-2-0-and-1-618-using-trendlines-eurusd-forex.html">2 Measured Moves: 2.0 and 1.618 Using Trendlines &#8211; EURUSD, Forex</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com">No Brainer Trades</a>.</p><div class="feedflare">
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		<slash:comments>9</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Becoming a Fluent Chart Reader – Clarity in Price Action</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/NoBrainerTrades/~3/qa5G4XbrrJo/becoming-a-fluent-chart-reader-clarity-in-price-action.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/becoming-a-fluent-chart-reader-clarity-in-price-action.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Mar 2013 18:39:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve W.</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Trading Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inner Trendline]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trading Price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trend Trading]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nobrainertrades.com/?p=4876</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) is an old expression that, in a nutshell, says: the cleaner, the better.  I&#8217;m sure many of you are well familiarized with it by now. And don&#8217;t we all love simplicity? Of course we do. There is a certain elegance in keeping our lives, trading systems, or just about anything we do on a manageable level that makes sense. But many people subconsciously like this expression for [...]</p><p>The post <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/becoming-a-fluent-chart-reader-clarity-in-price-action.html">Becoming a Fluent Chart Reader &#8211; Clarity in Price Action</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com">No Brainer Trades</a>.</p>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) is an old expression that, in a nutshell, says: the cleaner, the better.  I&#8217;m sure many of you are well familiarized with it by now. And don&#8217;t we all love simplicity? Of course we do. There is a certain elegance in keeping our lives, trading systems, or just about anything we do on a manageable level that makes sense.</p>
<p>But many people subconsciously like this expression for another reason: one way of interpreting it gives the reader a &#8220;free pass&#8221; to feel as though they don&#8217;t have to dig too deep to be successful at something. Obviously, that&#8217;s not the original intent, and indeed these days it tends to be used as more of a marketing slang than anything else.</p>
<p>Anytime I hear this expression in relation to trading one thought comes to mind: <em>Don&#8217;t Keep It TOO Simple, Stupid</em>.</p>
<p>Because look at all the pinpoint opportunity or just realizations that your strategy might be defunct, that you miss. If stress in trading is your problem, then leverage or a lack of understanding of market movements is your issue, or both. But understanding these details is highly relevant and should not be overlooked.</p>
<p>I recently Googled the expression and came to a popular retail FX trading website. KISS is &#8220;marketed&#8221; there and naturally, the number of things this author is missing on his charts is nothing short of mind blowing. And then there are slews of articles talking about conquering stress, etc., which I get, but I have to ask this: If he understood why and when price is turning, would he feel the need to conquer as much &#8221;stress&#8221;? Probably not. Instead of talking about stress why not figure out what&#8217;s happening in front of you? That, to me, makes a lot more sense. Put me in a pitch black room and I&#8217;m stressed. Put me in front of chart I dont understand and the same thing happens. Just get to the bottom of the issue at hand.</p>
<h4><span style="color: #ff6600;"><strong>Nitty Gritty Benefits</strong></span></h4>
<p>There are tons of benefits to knowing <strong>just</strong> the information we&#8217;ve discussed over the past few weeks alone. If any beginner just started here and worked their way forward, things would indeed be much more clear for the path ahead. Personal development will always be required, however, and that&#8217;s not something that can ever be skirted.</p>
<p>Most traders pick away at countertrend moves. And when I say pick, I mean <strong>PICK</strong>. A little here, a little there, and before they realize it they&#8217;ve got little red smears that add up to one huge smear in their account at the end of the week. I&#8217;ve talked to more than enough people to know this isn&#8217;t a rare occurrence and indeed I used suffer from a similar affliction at one point.</p>
<p>I still &#8220;pick&#8221; intraday, but there&#8217;s a massive difference in what I do now versus 8 or so years ago, and that&#8217;s control. I&#8217;m now just much more aware of when price is going to make a move, how it&#8217;s going to do it, and what I need to do to take advantage of it. There&#8217;s nothing psychological here. I didn&#8217;t gain more discipline or do anything else on a bullet-point checklist. It&#8217;s just know-how. I can read charts like a foreign language  So if you ask me if people can be taught my quick answer is &#8220;yes&#8221;.</p>
<p>But you have to take the time to do it. And you have to look at the nitty gritty. When you look at a price chart in one macro, sweeping movement, that&#8217;s fine, but at some point you&#8217;re going to get confused. There will <strong>always</strong> be times when things aren&#8217;t clear, no matter how advanced you are. But minimizing those times to exist as little and inconsequentially as possible is what you&#8217;re doing when you learn. These little things that we&#8217;re discussing here these past few weeks are turning points&#8230;.and they&#8217;re all derived from trend lines. Nothing fancy about that, but extremely relevant.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/02/mechanical-trend-trading-strategy-adaptive-entries-using-acceleration-launchpads.html"><span style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration: underline;">Last week&#8217;s article</span></a></span></span> about trend trading was popular among regular readers, and I can only guess why: as I said in the article itself, trend trading is extremely difficult to do, and much of this is based on our early notions of trading (buy low sell high). As simple as it seems, it is far from easy to accomplish.</p>
<p>Today I just want to highlight a couple more simple yet relevant things that might help in the identification of these adaptive turning points. Once again, as I&#8217;m quick to point out, showing everything after-the-fact is a piece of cake. But when you&#8217;re in the heat of the moment and decisions need to be made, you have to know how to approach this from a forward-looking perspective. And you certainly will, over time, if you aren&#8217;t already and are looking at the proper things. This will be the last discussion about these trend lines for a little while so we can get back to measured movements and other pinpoint execution techniques.</p>
<h4><strong><span style="color: #ff6600;">What Everyone Needs to Know About Trendlines</span></strong></h4>
<p>So before we get too far, I want to cover one very important underlying theme about trend lines: one of the first things I learned about them is that price accelerates towards them. And many times, the closer it gets, the faster it goes, only to hit it, and reverse. Breakouts are simply much less likely than fades.</p>
<p>To put it in the utmost form of common sense, think of it this way:</p>
<p>1. It takes a minimum of 2 highs or lows for you to be able to draw a line on your chart.<br />
2. The third one tends to fade, and 4, 5, 6 etc. fades are possible, but<br />
3. there can be only 1 breakout.</p>
<p>Which means for every trendline (with any significance) on your chart, you&#8217;ve got a minimum 2 to 1 ratio of a fade versus breakout on any standard diagonal or horizontal trendline. The norm is 3 to 1 and of course that number can be greater. And any trendline with only two hits is generally insignificant in terms of a breakout, because there is just no strength to the line.</p>
<p>Breakouts are just that unlikely, using this very common sense-based definition. And when they DO break, their relevance is heightened. So now that we know this, leverage is attained, and can categorize trades taken from trendlines in two major categories:</p>
<p>1. Prior to breakout (fades), or</p>
<p>2. Post breakout.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s take this step by step and cover these in order:</p>
<h4><strong><span style="color: #ff6600;">Scenario 1: Prior to a breakout (fading the trendline)</span></strong></h4>
<p>The most common means of drawing diagonal trendlienes are UNDERNEATH price in a demand scenario and ABOVE price in a supply scenario. While from a birds eye perspective, this is an easy way to identify a trend, pinpointing execution from these lines can be a very big challenge. Questions arise, like:</p>
<p>&#8220;How do I know I&#8217;m drawing this trend line the right way&#8221; or<br />
&#8220;How do I know if this is even going hold?&#8221;</p>
<p>It&#8217;s downright difficult to take trades of of these levels, as we well know. Simply stated: price gets &#8220;messy&#8221; around these trendlines. Blame it on the amateurs. You can confirm with bar patterns of course, or retests on smaller trend lines once broken. But as far as that actual highest or lowest price is concerned, alternative means are needed.</p>
<p>For exact trend line fades (direct hit reversals), I generally prefer using demand lines drawn ABOVE price and supply lines drawn BELOW price. These are for countertrend trades. I just find much better execution doing it this way as opposed to the latter.</p>
<p>Also very important, let&#8217;s go back to the major rule when it comes to trend lines:</p>
<p>You need 2 points to create it. The third one <em>tends to</em> fade, contingent on the circumstance. This is consistent with our <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2011/12/triple-taps.html"><span style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration: underline;">triple tap pattern</span></a></span></span>, which shows up all over your charts, every day, all day long long around reversal points. It is also true on larger timeframes. Here is a recent example (EUR/JPY) of everything I just talked about:</p>
<p><a href="http://3.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EURJPY-Top-Bottom-Channel-60-Min-Chart-Forex.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-4877" alt="EURJPY Top Bottom Channel 60 Min Chart Forex" src="http://2.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EURJPY-Top-Bottom-Channel-60-Min-Chart-Forex-1024x728.jpg" width="600" height="426" /></a></p>
<p>These aren&#8217;t exactly small moves, either. Depending on the context, larger timeframes tend to respect these much better than their smaller counterparts. One of our readers actually sent me the first trade via Twitter &#8211; thanks for shooting it over &#8211; you know who you are.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s one more, this time on a 15 min chart:</p>
<p><a href="http://0.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EURUSD-3-Lows.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-4878" alt="EURUSD 3 Lows" src="http://2.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EURUSD-3-Lows-1024x733.jpg" width="600" height="429" /></a></p>
<p>And another one:</p>
<p><a href="http://1.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EURUSD-Above-Price.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-4879" alt="EURUSD Above Price" src="http://2.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EURUSD-Above-Price-1024x735.jpg" width="600" height="430" /></a></p>
<p>NBT experts know that we have now entered triple tap territory. How often do highs and lows coincide with 3 pushes? Let&#8217;s take a very gratuitous look at this:</p>
<p><a href="http://3.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Triple-Taps-Everywhere.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-4880" alt="Triple Taps Everywhere" src="http://2.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Triple-Taps-Everywhere-1024x729.jpg" width="600" height="427" /></a></p>
<p>Yowsers. Maybe trading IS as easy as 1-2-3?  No, it&#8217;s not. Pretend I&#8217;m your crazy, disgruntled uncle, generally pissed at the world and here to destroy your dreams. We still need a top down approach when it comes to execution. But that&#8217;s another blog post.</p>
<p>Regardless, you can see from our last chart that we&#8217;ve got one exception to what I stated above, and that&#8217;s near-term ascending and descending demand and supply lines, respectively (in line with conventional wisdom, but on a short-term basis). When they happen so close to one another, the amateurs miss the boat most of the time, and you can see you&#8217;ve got a power play working to your advantage. So if you miss the dead-bottom then you can still hang in there for a third push. These are small and detailed though, so just a word of caution. Safe to say I&#8217;ll make another full post about these, because they&#8217;re extremely valuable.</p>
<p>And once again, I realize my words alone can be cluttered here. But I&#8217;m talking about these:</p>
<p><a href="http://3.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Ascending-and-Descending-Triple-Tap.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-4912" alt="Ascending and Descending Triple Tap" src="http://1.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Ascending-and-Descending-Triple-Tap-1024x752.jpg" width="600" height="440" /></a></p>
<p>And this is all happening in a range. Seeing these within (and in the direction of) a trend can pay off much better, of course.</p>
<h4><strong><span style="color: #ff6600;">Scenario 2: Post breakout (trendline retests)</span></strong></h4>
<p>Indeed, you don&#8217;t even have to go after those massive countertrend trades to turn a profit. It all depends on your preferred skill set. Waiting for trendline breaks has a lot of value:</p>
<p>1. The market has just &#8220;confirmed&#8221; something. A backward retest on the trendline seals the deal.</p>
<p>2. You can just easily derive a reasonable take profit, to another trendline or to a <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/02/measured-movements-trendline-breaks-taking-profits-redesigned.html"><span style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration: underline;">measured move</span></a></span></span>.</p>
<p>3. The deeper the break, the deeper the move. Good reward to risk is still present.</p>
<p>But of course you need to be looking at the <strong>proper</strong> trendlines. Peripheral, or outer trendlines, don&#8217;t give us the value that the ones taking heavy hits <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2012/05/inner-trendlines-and-why-this-market-loves-them-so-much.html"><span style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration: underline;">inside the previous range</span></a></span></span> do. And these lines tend to respond &#8220;to the pip&#8221; much more than their counterparts, depending on the situation.</p>
<p>When trend lines get used 3, 4, or 5 times they build significance. The more reoccurring hits you get on these lines the &#8220;stronger&#8221; they become. They become &#8220;stronger&#8221; simply because they gain celebrity status &#8211; more people can now see them and are likely to use them again once broken.</p>
<p>So using an admittedly terrible analogy, you want to find the A-listers on your chart. Which trendline is Tom Cruise and which one is a busted up reality TV contestant? Find the confluence. You want to find the Tom Cruise of trend lines.</p>
<p>Tom Cruise might be short, but he knows how to fork in the cash. Same goes for your little trendlines.</p>
<p>We&#8217;re going to apply a couple rules of thumb that truly help out your trend trading. If you haven&#8217;t read last week&#8217;s article. Please stop here, <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/02/mechanical-trend-trading-strategy-adaptive-entries-using-acceleration-launchpads.html"><span style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration: underline;">read it, and come back</span></a></span></span>. This won&#8217;t likely make as much sense to you otherwise.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s take another look at one of last week&#8217;s charts. These ranges will vary of course, but the premise always remains the same.</p>
<p><a href="http://3.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EURUSD-Trendline-Retests-5-Minute-Chart-.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-4892" alt="EURUSD Trendline Retests 5 Minute Chart" src="http://0.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EURUSD-Trendline-Retests-5-Minute-Chart--1024x547.jpg" width="600" height="320" /></a></p>
<p>Let&#8217;s start with what happens when price is trading outside of the range: upper and lower trendlines are used for retests to take price higher and lower (<strong>Points A</strong>)</p>
<p>When we are inside a trading range, prices are relatively neutral. They are neither &#8220;overbought&#8221; or &#8220;oversold&#8221;.</p>
<p>But when we leave a trading range, a trend is created, no matter how short-lived it might be. While most indicators are showing overbought or oversold, day traders are just going to keep buying or selling. It is that simple. Typically not until these indicators diverge or more relevant objectives are met do we start to see the masses back off. Look for retests on near-term trendlines to confirm this.</p>
<p>Next, when price starts cascading through our traditional trendlines, those holding confluence are used on the back end for retests.</p>
<p><strong>Points B</strong> are labeled to demonstrate that at least one touch was derived from the previous move higher.</p>
<p><strong>Points C</strong> demonstrate that when possible, trendlines will go back towards the middle of the range. In the case of the first two to get used, this wasn&#8217;t possible because of their angles.</p>
<p>Also worth noting (and was mentioned last week), when price got towards the center of the previous range, pullbacks became deeper. This is short term profit taking and intraday longs stepping in after a decently sized drop. After the slowdown, we raced to the next trendline.</p>
<h4><strong><span style="color: #ff6600;">DKITSS = Don&#8217;t Keep It Too Simple, Stupid</span></strong></h4>
<p>So back to the beginning of this post. And here is where we want to keep it simple, but not too simple.</p>
<p>Simplicity is in our trendlines. There is a short, mechanical process that your brain is going to go through if you&#8217;re trading from these things. You are:</p>
<p>1. Finding a level of opportunity</p>
<p>2. Waiting for a reaction</p>
<p>3. Letting enough time go by for a reasonable pullback.</p>
<p>4. Possibly confirming with individual bar patterns.</p>
<p>5. Setting a reasonable take profit based on another trendline or measured move / any other technique that holds integrity.</p>
<p>6. Setting a reasonable stop loss based on the potential yield of the trade.</p>
<p>Sometimes you won&#8217;t &#8220;see&#8221; the retest until after it happens. Which is fine. You still have means of getting into the move after that initial shove. Work on getting in AFTER the confirmation. Just become comfortable with this process. In the coming week&#8217;s we&#8217;ll break this process down a bit more.</p>
<p>There are many other means of using these trendlines to your advantage, of course. My goal recently has been to just outline some of the major uses so you can (if you feel you have been) stop looking at charts that simply don&#8217;t make sense. Musicians read music, chartists read charts. All these moves are deliberate, driven by something. I want to show what that &#8220;something&#8221; is.</p>
<p>While I don&#8217;t expect most people to instantaneously take this information and transform their process overnight, it is just as important to show how and why price is behaving in certain ways. This knowledge alone is tremendously helpful, whether or not it is used to trade from directly.</p>
<p>But it can be, of course, and all the better as far as I&#8217;m concerned. While I don&#8217;t feel the need to explain it, hopefully you can see how everything we&#8217;ve been discussing these days allows you to have a much better heads up on price action in general.</p>
<p>So here&#8217;s to being enlightened. Thanks as usual for stopping by and see you soon.</p>
<p>Steve</p>
<p>Chart Sources: <a href="http://tradingview.com" target="_blank">http://www.tradingview.com</a></p>
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		<title>A Little Gold Off Of The Golden Ratio</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/NoBrainerTrades/~3/zt20wKDZc7A/a-little-gold-off-of-the-golden-ratio.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/a-little-gold-off-of-the-golden-ratio.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Mar 2013 23:58:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve W.</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Trading Strategy Examples: Quick Charts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fibonacci]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Measured Move]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nobrainertrades.com/?p=4838</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Trade makes a proper bounce late in a Friday session from the 1.618 extension of the trend line break.</p><p>The post <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/a-little-gold-off-of-the-golden-ratio.html">A Little Gold Off Of The Golden Ratio</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com">No Brainer Trades</a>.</p>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Trade makes a proper bounce late in a Friday session from the 1.618 extension of the trend line break.</p>
<p><a href="http://0.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Golden-Ratio.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-4839" alt="Trading Bounce from Golden Ratio Extension" src="http://1.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Golden-Ratio-1024x757.jpg" width="600" height="443" /></a></p>
<p>The post <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/a-little-gold-off-of-the-golden-ratio.html">A Little Gold Off Of The Golden Ratio</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com">No Brainer Trades</a>.</p><div class="feedflare">
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		<title>EUR/USD Daily Low Confluence: Clear Measured Move and Diagonal Range</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/NoBrainerTrades/~3/ExcW7lmob2M/eurusd-daily-low-confluence-clear-measured-move-and-diagonal-range.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/eurusd-daily-low-confluence-clear-measured-move-and-diagonal-range.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Mar 2013 23:51:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve W.</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Trading Strategy Examples: Quick Charts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forex]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Measured Move]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Price Action]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nobrainertrades.com/?p=4828</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>EUR/USD makes a daily low with trendline and 100% measured move (from the first leg) confluence. This point also coincided with a 23% retracement of the last wave (not shown).</p><p>The post <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/eurusd-daily-low-confluence-clear-measured-move-and-diagonal-range.html">EUR/USD Daily Low Confluence: Clear Measured Move and Diagonal Range</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com">No Brainer Trades</a>.</p>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>EUR/USD makes a daily low with trendline and 100% measured move (from the first leg) confluence. This point also coincided with a 23% retracement of the last wave (not shown).</p>
<p><a href="http://1.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EURUSD-Daily-Low-Diagonal-Trend-Line-Forex-Chart.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-4829" alt="EURUSD Daily Low Diagonal Trend Line Forex Chart" src="http://3.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EURUSD-Daily-Low-Diagonal-Trend-Line-Forex-Chart-1024x814.png" width="600" height="476" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://3.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EURUSD-Measured-Move-From-The-First-Leg.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-4836" alt="EURUSD Measured Move From The First Leg" src="http://3.nobrainertrades.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EURUSD-Measured-Move-From-The-First-Leg-1024x570.png" width="600" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>The post <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/03/eurusd-daily-low-confluence-clear-measured-move-and-diagonal-range.html">EUR/USD Daily Low Confluence: Clear Measured Move and Diagonal Range</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.nobrainertrades.com">No Brainer Trades</a>.</p><div class="feedflare">
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