tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15004996343063651432024-03-14T08:49:06.002-10:00News from 1930Being a daily summary based upon my reading of the Wall Street Journal from the corresponding day in 1930-1931.ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.comBlogger505125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-80006455330625085352011-01-11T13:34:00.000-10:002011-01-11T13:35:01.897-10:00Friday, September 25, 1931: Dow 107.79 -8.20 (7.1%)<span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>British crisis update:</b></i></span></span></span> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Sterling continued </b>to decline, opening at $3.91 and sagging to $3.81 (vs. $4.10 on Wed. and $4.85 the previous week); rest of the foreign currency list was unsettled, though francs and Swiss francs were strong. <b>Reports from London </b>state the govt. wants to prevent a sudden further fall in sterling, and may resort to further restrictions to “prevent bear speculation,” or even to intervening by “rallying sterling and squeezing the shorts.” <b>Return to the full </b>gold-standard value for sterling is now seen as impossible since “the monetary policy of recent years now stands condemned by its results and industry means to get every possible advantage from the exchange's depreciation.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Stocks broke </b>sharply in NY, largely wiping out Wednesday's gains; the Dow industrial and utility averages hit new bear market lows; bonds also fell but selling was better absorbed; commodities opened strongly but later followed securities markets lower. <b>The London stock </b>market was "strong, due to decline in sterling" while bonds were irregular; Paris was "independently firm." <b>German stock </b>markets will remain closed until next week; main reason for closure is "nervousness in banking circles" though official reason given is "uneasiness about the position of mark exchange" as sterling and other currencies become cheaper; German coal exporters are reportedly suffering from British competition.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>The Fed. Reserve </b>reported gold continued to be "earmarked" for the account of foreign central banks (in effect exporting it from the US); $64M was earmarked up to 3PM on Thursday, bringing the total in the past week to $185M. <b>Foreign and local bill selling </b>reached an "extraordinarily large" total of about $100M on Thursday; bill dealers "advanced their rates sharply in a spell of nervousness;" open market rates rose 1/4% on all maturities but the Fed Reserve maintained its buying rates for bills, and left its rediscount rate at 1 1/2%; this was seen as "a virtual invitation to banks and dealers" to sell bills to it. It's believed the Fed. would welcome a large increase in bill holdings and discounts, in pursuance of its policy of "making money rates extremely easy and increasing the volume of both Fed. Reserve and general bank credit outstanding."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;">[Note: What would we do without noted economists? Dept.] </span><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><b>Sir Josiah Stamp, </b>noted economist, says influence of a number of countries leaving the gold standard would be to release a large amount of the pressure to possess gold in order to back currency, automatically making it less valuable; predicts "this may stimulate a rise in the price levels" of countries remaining on gold standards, "with strange consequences in the exchange rates." <b>Bank of Montreal </b>notes that England's action has “deranged sterling exchange, but there is no reason to anticipate serious consequences to international trade, which in the past has flowed freely in like circumstance.” Regarding Canada, notes August external trade $97.2M, down 35% from 1930, continuing a steady two-year slide accounted for in most commodities by both lower prices and volumes.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Silver has moved </b>higher since British abandonment of the gold standard (from 27 1/2 cents last week to 29 1/4); speculative buying has increased; "the market is generally unsettled and further fluctuations are probable." <b>The silver market </b>"will be watched with growing interest in the coming weeks"; past weakness in silver has been a disturbing influence on the commodity situation, and some interests argue improvement in silver would be encouraging. Some believe India may return to a silver standard, which might result in a sharp rise. It's reported "well posted interests" have been buying mid-1932 silver futures. <b>Silver prices </b>in Mexico have improved slightly for several days, though the increase isn't attributed to the British situation. The peso rose slightly; bankers "attributed the fluctuation to superficial reasons and misinformation concerning the true character of the suspension of the gold standard."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Washington officials </b>indicated British proposal for international currency conference would be accepted.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Swedish Fin. Min. </b>denies govt. has discussed suspending the gold standard; says spending cuts needed but "no reason for pessimism regarding the budget position ... foreign reports that Sweden's finances are in a precarious condition are entirely unfounded"; govt. is contemplating measures needed to restore trade balance. <b>Bank of Sweden </b>raised discount rate to 6% from 5%.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Cuban Treasury Sec.</b> says Cuba will pay all external debts even if sacrifices are needed; can't understand drastic decline in Cuba Public Works bonds, which are trading at 38 in spite of guarantee backed by public works taxes.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Italy's trade deficit </b>seen benefitting from depreciation in sterling since bulk of Italian trade is transacted in sterling. <b>Bank of Italy</b> reports 60% circulation coverage as of Sept. 10, of which 37% is gold and the rest gold-standard currencies.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>European financial </b>developments this summer "have caused the Chicago business community willy-nilly to take a much greater interest in what is going on across the Atlantic." The strong effect of European news on business in the "economic vortex of the North American continent" has "literally forced many business men to follow news from abroad closely, in order to protect interests which at first might seem purely domestic."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Wage cuts update</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>AFL pres. </b>W. Green, says he's not sure if Asst. Commerce Sec. J. Klein was quoted accurately as saying "there will be hell to pay throughout the US in the event of a general wage reduction," but that "it is my honest opinion, arrived at after deliberate and calm consideration, ... that it ought to be a logical outcome of the wage cutting policies pursued by the highly protected employing corporations of the nation."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>An "insurgent" group </b>of miners has called a strike against the Glen Alden Coal Co.; J. Boylan of the United Mine Workers said the strike was unauthorized and a "complete failure" with only a handful walking out; W. Inglis, company pres., said about 5,000 of the company's 25,000 workers were out; T. Malone, "insurgent leader," said about 10,000 were on strike. <b>Officials of the Amer. Federation </b>of Full-Fashioned Hosiery Workers said they were opposed to a strike called by their local in Paterson, NJ. The union's agreement last Saturday to 30%-45% wage cuts has been met by agitation for a general strike at local unions in NJ, NY and New England, but national union officials said they stood behind the agreement.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>US govt. denies </b>pleas of labor organizations to close bridge at El Paso in order to bar Mexican laborers.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Reports from Al Capone's </b>headquarters in Chicago "indicate that he has sent out a wage cut order, similar to those of industrial firms all over the country." The amount of beer and liquor sold at saloons is reportedly down about a third from the days of prosperity, and gambling houses are also bringing in substantially less.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Assorted historical stuff</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Rather philosophical </b>editorial calling for more US involvement in world affairs to prevent future war. The world is in the grip of two opposing forces. One, "the economic interdependence of the nations, has drawn us together in relations of the most intimate kind. The other, 'nationalism,' in an exaggerated degree, exercises a centrifugal force, threatening at all times to force us apart." A counter-force to nationalism is needed, but "all experience teaches us ... the mere dread of the material penalties that accompany war" is insufficient; "after a reasonably long armistice men quickly forget in prosperity the lessons that were so clear when taught by the now-forgotten war and the pride that prosperity has engendered readily grasps at new illusions." Instead a "spiritual" influence is needed; the first requirement is the "clear realization that we in the US can not live to ourselves alone" and must "recognize our share of the responsibilities of the family of nations and understand that upon discharge by us of that share depends our own safety and well-being."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>The US Administration </b>is reportedly "very keen" to have Premier Laval of France visit; US govt. observers at the recent Paris-London conferences "formed a very high opinion" of Laval, believing "his views on Europe are broad and liberal" and his leadership of the French govt. "a hopeful augury for the future." Officials refuse to comment on what might be discussed during the visit, "but point out that the sky is the limit." <b>The French Cabinet has </b>decided to accept the US invitation to Premier Laval to visit; Hoover-Laval talks in Washington are seen laying the groundwork for the world arms conference at Geneva in February, as the Hoover-MacDonald talks did for the successful London Naval Conference in 1930. Laval, the son of a butcher, also expressed hopes of visiting other parts of the US, commenting "The Champs Elysees isn't France, and I suppose New York isn't America. I represent the abbatoirs in the Paris Parliament and so I would be happy to visit Chicago if possible." <b>Premier Laval </b>will reportedly discuss with German officials "a scientific plan of emigration to cure Europe's unemployment problem." Noting that before the war Europe exported 2M-3M emigrants annually but since the war the US, Canada, Australia and Asia have closed their doors, the plan will propose studying "diverting surplus population to the African colonies and South America under sound economic conditions."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>The USDA says</b> direct reports from Russia are now arriving of trouble with wheat crops, confirming information the USDA obtained previously and reversing the optimism of earlier Russian reports. The Russian press has complained of work falling behind, blaming inefficient handling of machinery and "general slackening in the efforts of workers"; the importance of timely seeding of fall grains is stressed, noting that due to late seeding last year, many areas in the Ukraine experienced 20%-40% winter kill. Buyers are noting a lack of surplus spring wheat from this year's crop.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;">[Note: There are no free-marketers in foxholes dept.]</span> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><b>C. Abbott, dir. </b>of the Amer. Inst. of Steel Construction, called on Pres. Hoover to discuss steel industry problems and endorsed the plan presented by GE pres. Swope for control of industrial production, particularly to limit output of basic commodities to consumption; says suspension of antitrust law in current emergency would "prevent waste and conserve the profits that are essential to ensure employment." <b>Editorial praising </b>B. & O. RR pres. Willard's call to railroad managers and regulators "to come together in a new spirit of cooperation." Both rails and the public would "benefit immeasurably" if this were done rather than "pursuing individual theories, preferences and interests to the limit." Customers have been "too selfishly intent" on beating rates down by any means, while some rails have "been too intent on seeking company advantage" to help the ICC protect the industry as a whole. While an emergency rate increase is needed for the rails to carry on now, a better relation with regulators would be more important in the long run. <b>W. Bennett,</b> Continental Coal gen. counsel, presented new plan for stabilizing the coal industry similar to that recommended by the Administration to the oil-producing states as a solution for overproduction. The governors of several coal-producing states will appoint a committee of coal operators to study various plans; the committees will then report back to the governors. Pres. Hoover reported pleased.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Sen. Wheeler </b>of Montana predicts nomination of Gov. Roosevelt for President in 1932. <b>A statement by </b>former Sen. Reed that he would consider it a "compliment" for Missouri Democrats to nominate him again will not help Roosevelt's candidacy; while Reed isn't expected to pursue the nomination country-wide as he did in 1928, he's not to be counted out at this stage; there's some doubt whether Roosevelt workers will even go into Missouri in view of Reed's statement.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>The American Legion </b>convention cast two notable votes; a resolution to petition Congress to loan veterans the full value of their bonus certificates was defeated by 902 to 507 in a calm vote, while a resolution opposing Prohibition passed 1,008 to 394 amid "wild disorder." <b>Wets were encouraged </b>by the second resolution, which asserted Prohibition had "created a condition endangering respect for the law and the security of American institutions" and called on Congress to resubmit the matter to the states. <b>Wets agreed </b>that the "first task necessary is to make inroads into the Congressional dry majorities. Despite prevailing Washington opinion to the contrary, they are not without hope that this can be done at the next session." Considering its past ability to "get pretty much what it wanted from Congress," the Legion's stand "will have a great influence" although it will meet more determined opposition in dry organizations than it did in its past work for veterans' benefits. <b>Pres. Hoover </b>was heartened by the Legion's vote on the veteran's bonus, but had no comment on the Prohibition matter. Agriculture Sec. Hyde announced he intends to investigate the economic possibilities of beer for farm relief, though he emphasized he wasn't instructed to make the study by Pres. Hoover.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>New Navy dirigible </b>the Akron, world's largest airship, successfully completes first test flight lasting 3 hours 47 minutes.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NY fall moving </b>season likely to be quietest in several years; furniture storage increasing, with indications many are moving into smaller homes.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NYU's Graduate School </b>of Business Administration opened this week with a graduate registration larger than last year.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NY Telephone</b> uses a special operator just to give callers the correct time. The phone number for the service is Meridian 7-1212; callers hear the operator giving an updated time every 15 seconds. The peak number of calls comes in the 4 PM hour, averaging 3,000 callers; next busiest is 11 AM - noon; the rest of the day averages about 1,000/hour, and the total falls off rapidly after 6 PM. "Because of the monotony of the work, each operator is on duty only one hour at a time."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>It takes 480 janitors </b>to keep the Empire State Building in order, and that's without a single hand mop or broom in sight; all cleaning is done by machines. Although 50,000 people "trudge in and out of the building daily, they track in only one barrel of dirt."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Pres. Hoover </b>will deliver a radio address at the opening of the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel in NY on Sept. 30. [Note: Hoover lived the final few years of his life in the Waldorf. He died at the age of 90 in Oct. 1964, and still holds the US Presidential record for longest lifespan after leaving office at 31 years and 7 months, though Jimmy Carter is approaching that mark.]</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Market commentary</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Market wrap:</b> Stocks reversed Wednesday's sharp rally. The market opened under selling pressure, and, after it was unable to absorb the supply, "liquidation, which halted on Tuesday, was resumed in large volume"; many stop-loss orders were uncovered by the end of the first hour. Declines were sizable across the list, but were particularly sharp for stocks in which bears had been punished in the previous sessions, including Union Pacific, Western Union and Auburn. Selling "was most persistent throughout the list"; the market could muster only a feeble rally off the bottom. <b>Bonds showed </b><span style="">early </span>strength in some groups but later turned mostly lower; US govts. very weak with many new yearly lows; foreign list mixed with rally in S. American issues; rail bonds weak while utility issues showed “characteristic resistance.” <b>Cotton rose </b>early, influenced by "soaring prices" in foreign markets affected by sterling, but later fell off to close substantially lower. Wheat also strong early but pressured as the sharp reaction in securities broke out and ended fractionally lower. Copper remained at record low of 7 cents/pound but with more buying interest; large producers have withdrawn from the market. Silver fell 3/8 cent to 29 1/8, futures trading heavy.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Dow industrial </b>average closed at a new bear market low; there were no new yearly highs and 102 new lows. <b>Dow average </b>of 40 corp. bonds closed at 89.25, down 0.60 but above the year's low of 88.56.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Conservative observers </b>pointed to the market action as justifying their attitude in keeping clients away from the long side; believe liquidation likely to continue.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Prominent bears </b>reestablished positions they abandoned Monday and Tuesday under NYSE pressure; while the NYSE again allowed short selling on Wednesday, the bears craftily waited to see how far the rally would carry, and resumed their "hammering tactics" when it became apparent it was exhausted; targets included Westinghouse, American Can and J.I. Case. <b>While recent </b>wage cuts should be positive in the long run, bears contended "the downward adjustment of values had not been completed," noting continued weakness in steel production, rail freight loadings, and electricity usage. With no signs of improved business, "they felt that the market was open to further tests of its ability to hold above the recent lows"; some "insisted that business still had many trying periods to pass through."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>US Steel </b>drew heavy interest, at one time falling 8 1/4 points to 75, close to its bear market low. Union Carbide and du Pont hit new bear market lows. High-priced rails were weak, reversing Tuesday's impressive gains. Public utilities experienced heavy selling; North American Co. was heavily targeted by short sellers although "it ranks as one of the strongest utility holding organizations ... and is noted for its conservative accounting methods."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Technical position </b>of the stock market was weakened by Wednesday's "violent gains" as short interest had been substantially reduced. The market was also unsettled by renewed weakness in bonds, particularly in rails and foreign issues. <b>Heavy short </b>covering had developed in the rails at times earlier in the week, leading to "spectacular gains which were frowned upon by many of the conservatives."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Stock investors </b>are giving the bond market "more significance ... than at any time in the past"; "several of the leading professionals will base stock market operations on the action of bonds"; further bond weakness may therefore delay operations in the stock market by "interests who have been credited frequently in the past with directing upward movements."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>S. American bonds </b>have generally declined to very low levels; even after the rally Wednesday, few closed at a yield below 10% and many $1,000 par issues are selling below $250. This, of course, reflects uncertainty due to defaults that have already occurred in Chile, Bolivia and Peru, along with the announcement Brazil will suspend interest payments. <b>Commentary questioning </b>absence of investment trust [similar to mutual fund] buying of foreign bonds that are now available at huge discounts; this is said to be just the type of profit opportunity the trusts were supposed to be ready for. Some trusts may reply they buy only domestic stocks, but there's no such restriction in their charters; the real explanation is that investment trusts are in general so heavily invested that they've been able to do little buying at current low prices.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NY City </b>borrowed short-term funds at a record low rate of 1 3/8% for 3 months; the city has been able to attract funds at exceptionally low rates over the past year or more; a year ago its prevailing rate was about 2%. The city has also done very well at selling longer-term loans, most recently selling a $50M issue of 4-year notes at 2.99% in May.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Brokers report</b> greater public participation early in the week; many customers who had sold stocks some time ago and stayed on the sidelines reentered the market. Buyers used "great care and discrimination," concentrating on stocks that were heavily liquidated and that had suffered from forced foreign selling.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>B. Block of </b>Benjamin Block & Co. believes "the American market is again a stable one"; its remarkable "ability ... to absorb a flood of foreign offerings and mount to higher levels" after Britain's abandonment of the gold standard "indicates that a definite change for the better has occurred both at home and abroad" and that "stocks of companies that have been able to earn money during these times of depression can again be bought with safety." Of course, buying should be "on a conservative basis and a due amount of patience exercised"; however, the US is strong in natural resources, manufacturing and financially, putting it "in a position to benefit as probably no other country will during the next few years."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Economic news and individual company reports</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;">“<span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Insatiable demand” </b>for AT&T stock continues, with about 5,000 new shareholders added per month; over 600,000 stockholders are now listed on AT&T's books, not including over 200,000 Bell System workers covered under the employee stock plan. Average number of shares per holder is 31. While AT&T will probably not cover the $2.25 quarterly dividend in the seasonally weak Q3, first half earnings were $4.89/share (vs. $5.72 in 1930), and business is expected to improve in Q4; therefore, the $2.25 dividend will "undoubtedly" be maintained for the rest of 1931.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Treasury Secretary </b>Mellon is likely to announce with a month whether the Administration will recommend a tax increase; Treasury has been "looking into various revenue sources" for the past few months.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Money in circulation </b>Sept. 23 was up $77M to $5.164B, total Reserve Bank credit outstanding up $36M to $1.315B. Member banks in NY City report brokers' loans down $64M to new record low of $1.207B; loans on securities to non-brokers down $8M to $1.720B.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Dow average </b>of 8 iron and steel products held at $44.25 vs. the 1931 range of $43.58 - $44.56. <b>Scrap markets </b>continued to feature little interest by steel producers in purchasing for fall, though some quarters expect steel activity may increase as a result of the recent wage cuts.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Gen. Wolters, </b>commanding the militia in the East Texas oil field, reports daily production in the area declined to 363,423 barrels vs. a peak of 436,000 after the new Railroad Commission order limiting production to 185 barrels/day per well. Texas Gov. Sterling sent a telegram criticizing the "great amount of unnecessary drilling" being done in East Texas. <b>While Oklahoma </b>Gov. Murray has said oil fields there won't be reopened yet and he will still insist on a price of $1/barrel, conferences between state officials and oil operators are increasing and reopening is believed in sight. Oil operators cite agreement by the Public Service Commissioners of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas to allocate allowable production among the states "to keep the national total well below demand as a means of stabilizing the market"; Oklahoma would be allowed 546,000 barrels of daily production, Texas 902,000 and Kansas 110,000.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>S. Carolina Gov. </b>Blackwood signed a bill prohibiting planting of cotton in S. Carolina in 1932, provided 3/4 of the South's cotton acreage is similarly restricted.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Postmaster Gen. </b>Brown says air mail deficit is $17M; estimates 1M passengers will be carried by air transport lines this year.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>The Colombian Senate </b>passed a law granting the President extraordinary powers for one year to deal with economic problems; powers include ability to restrict imports, either by raising duties or enforcing an embargo.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Merchants Savings </b>& Trust of Pittsburgh closed; deposits $1.0M. <b>Bankers Trust of </b>Philadelphia, closed Dec. 1930, to be liquidated by order of Pennsylvania Sec. of Banking; will make preliminary distribution of 25% to depositors "as soon as possible after legal requirements are completed." <b>Depositors of the </b>Cheasapeake Bank of Baltimore, closed Dec. 1930, may receive some money due them in October.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>The Baltimore Stock </b>Exchange, passed a resolution fixing closing prices Tuesday as the minimum below which bids would not be accepted until further notice.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Procter & Gamble pres. </b>R. Duepree says co. "has adhered 100% to its plan of guaranteeing year-around employment to its factory employes throughout the US and Canada, and will continue to do so"; calls the plan "one of the most productive moves our company has ever made."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Even in hard </b>times, "the epicure is one purchaser who refuses to stomach anything but the best"; total Canadian shipments of live lobsters rose to about 12.5M pounds in 1930 vs. 11M in 1929 and 9.8M in 1928.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Companies reporting decent earnings:</b> City Ice & Fuel.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Theatre</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i>The Breadwinner, </i>a new comedy by W. Somerset Maugham. The author's revamping of <i>Moon and Sixpence</i> for the stage is generally unfortunate, though "not without its smiles." A husband repudiates his comfortable home and family, but, unlike in <i>Moon and Sixpence </i>in which there was at least "an illusion of positive purpose" as the protagonist felt he couldn't fulfill his artistic ambitions at home, in the play the reason for leaving seems to be simple boredom as "he has come to the conclusion that he does not want to do anything at all."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Jokes</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;">[Note: a couple of knee-slappers today.]</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;">"Inspector - Got away, has he? Did you guard all the exits? Country Constable - Yes, but we think he must have left by one of the entrances."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;">Little Johnnie - I ain't gwine thar. Teacher - Listen carefully, Johnnie. I am not going there; he is not going there; we are not going there; you are not going there; they are not going there; thou art not going there. Do you get the idea? Student - Yessur. Ain't nobody gwine nowhar.</span></span></p>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com52tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-90334178695526833562010-12-21T11:29:00.011-10:002010-12-21T12:36:25.312-10:00Some interesting ads<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">A commenter with the memorable ID of Pants-Happy recently asked to see a certain full-page Packard ad that I had referred to earlier. I find quite a few of the ads I come across from the 1930's to be noteworthy either for content or graphic design, which is why I put small images of some of them along the right side of the blog page. However, considering Pants-Happy's request, I thought it might be worthwhile to show larger images of some of the more interesting ads I've come across. To start, here's the requested Packard ad:</span> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEWRd1rfDft1Hoa9pffPDsKySVgQPvNzzm0cqJg1nti5tgLhv_PVZnR1Z2_8FyIUPCWHWemwwrIEm8Yrz0VUQrIzCx3t0p1mfqIU6_aXfDXMU1trQ7-oe2dvBRUQMlMU-bDblmVKjNtpGH/s1600/packard+ad.GIF"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 604px; height: 598px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEWRd1rfDft1Hoa9pffPDsKySVgQPvNzzm0cqJg1nti5tgLhv_PVZnR1Z2_8FyIUPCWHWemwwrIEm8Yrz0VUQrIzCx3t0p1mfqIU6_aXfDXMU1trQ7-oe2dvBRUQMlMU-bDblmVKjNtpGH/s1600/packard+ad.GIF" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553250960728214642" border="0" /></a></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><i>A DOLLAR FOR DOLE - OR AN HOUR OF WORK? Which do you prefer to give? Which do you think Labor would prefer to have? ... Why not put the unemployed dollar to work? It will, in turn, put men to work ... I do not counsel you to buy a Packard, or any other car, before you buy anything else. Ours is not that selfish attitude. I do believe that the motor car dollar will go more places, more quickly, and affect more people for quick relief than any other dollar and that it can well become the “self starter for better business and greater prosperity.</i></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">And an editorial cartoon that also mentions the strangely familiar “unemployed dollar” phenomenon:</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7fddEzzzxctt7O4z7SyH6UOTsM_h00dHhGRT2ip8SGsWg1avS5F_V8pmK0qDUG-_MtfgiICVehn26cRYxFtWNcGmnIiUDpTsXn9_3x4QRgQ8XJfiXMmWcWJcLCzDyR03rzQweb90vNjiB/s1600/unempl+cartoon.GIF"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 609px; height: 581px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7fddEzzzxctt7O4z7SyH6UOTsM_h00dHhGRT2ip8SGsWg1avS5F_V8pmK0qDUG-_MtfgiICVehn26cRYxFtWNcGmnIiUDpTsXn9_3x4QRgQ8XJfiXMmWcWJcLCzDyR03rzQweb90vNjiB/s1600/unempl+cartoon.GIF" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553252340015129906" border="0" /></a></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">A couple of ads giving some strangely familiar level-headed advice about how history shows prosperity will return, it's futile to try and time the market, etc.:</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh86SI5gtwAKY98erH-B_fhq-xuORIn1mFE14CbvXubGCXapx0yHQC_EOQ5Ud5ACQf9EnsKF4bWDnYYh9zj7hg99PESgfSYEXazMaEWwV8b4oQgyzyCPRXEAE5lBpWFnGFQcUiL1Vh1bUrm/s1600/in+1907.GIF"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 417px; height: 545px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh86SI5gtwAKY98erH-B_fhq-xuORIn1mFE14CbvXubGCXapx0yHQC_EOQ5Ud5ACQf9EnsKF4bWDnYYh9zj7hg99PESgfSYEXazMaEWwV8b4oQgyzyCPRXEAE5lBpWFnGFQcUiL1Vh1bUrm/s1600/in+1907.GIF" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553263912613967266" border="0" /></a></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">In 1907, shortly after the headlines above had appeared, the security market had started a long steady upswing. “History Repeats Itself” These 30 Super-Corporations are prepared for prosperity ...</span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitldj33p75MUmWTR-eJRABYSZfLfTbHdqwJ46C0vmUWbFrJeLRbQVNoXx6vwF5VD3zk_TKmY7TeSjw5O_pzqKQfc_jlqLArrThLGws4F4XQaG04gDUZhxYZTkoSw-oXBn_gZ69y4CQK96G/s1600/buy+near+bottom.GIF"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 570px; height: 964px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitldj33p75MUmWTR-eJRABYSZfLfTbHdqwJ46C0vmUWbFrJeLRbQVNoXx6vwF5VD3zk_TKmY7TeSjw5O_pzqKQfc_jlqLArrThLGws4F4XQaG04gDUZhxYZTkoSw-oXBn_gZ69y4CQK96G/s1600/buy+near+bottom.GIF" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553267425292664530" border="0" /></a></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><i>Buy The Best near the Bottom ... Unquestionably the foundations of the great fortunes of tomorrow are being laid today. The shrewd evaluators of America are buying the best common stocks now - at prices which a few years hence will seem incredible ... The older Rothschild crystallized his experience in a single sentence when he said: “I made my money by never trying to sell at the exact top or buy at the exact bottom.”</i></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">An interesting ad about Chicago - I think this one could be subtitled “never mind about that whole Al Capone thing.” The ad is quite striking visually, though this reproduction doesn't do it full justice.</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1mpCOGoACcDsGPIwxcjagj6MywU_fH04pvwFIUPD_rCTHQKfc9HnmwfUku9zFDIY6cOiF61GxOayVnsG3HH_MM78ad5F331JQwSSwENBTNZBMfn-OQGyYJUc5k0BoszwJ5pa5ba_cCc81/s1600/chicago.GIF"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 596px; height: 631px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1mpCOGoACcDsGPIwxcjagj6MywU_fH04pvwFIUPD_rCTHQKfc9HnmwfUku9zFDIY6cOiF61GxOayVnsG3HH_MM78ad5F331JQwSSwENBTNZBMfn-OQGyYJUc5k0BoszwJ5pa5ba_cCc81/s1600/chicago.GIF" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553255130001057394" border="0" /></a></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><i>Dazzling lights accentuate their shadows. Too long and too well has the black side of Chicago been advertised. Far from offering excuses, Chicago is at death grips with these forces. But there is Another Side ...</i></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Another nice graphic in this ad for United Engineers & Constructors, presenting the work done by the company in 1930 as an imaginary city: </span> </p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnW-iBEa58nzejN5Bcxnxoq3izQZrgzG4i-w3pZFZZNqe0Lq1pypZBotwH804pxSft68Cnbbzjg9RcRd7hNnZx6-ZazZ8BNAQeWC3IR1JJyuFMa6R0xcuHdNF8rZO4wWPVoh8JIJCM_Fsa/s1600/united+eng.GIF"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 604px; height: 640px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnW-iBEa58nzejN5Bcxnxoq3izQZrgzG4i-w3pZFZZNqe0Lq1pypZBotwH804pxSft68Cnbbzjg9RcRd7hNnZx6-ZazZ8BNAQeWC3IR1JJyuFMa6R0xcuHdNF8rZO4wWPVoh8JIJCM_Fsa/s1600/united+eng.GIF" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553257645220649314" border="0" /></a></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Of course, no collection of ads from 1931 would be complete without an Empire State Building one:</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaqPZ0d_9Y1KtE0939jlTCCp7_zs8Ii6VRdFbOZvggJcymvPZrwDu__wZmMvVkT9FxAKYTvCFPNUxXFNUF23urpe74vqexaQ3Ux49ITX0AvOtdqp1cH0EhDb8fm_bvKfXumwBeUdYQ-MPa/s1600/empire+state+3.GIF"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 593px; height: 978px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaqPZ0d_9Y1KtE0939jlTCCp7_zs8Ii6VRdFbOZvggJcymvPZrwDu__wZmMvVkT9FxAKYTvCFPNUxXFNUF23urpe74vqexaQ3Ux49ITX0AvOtdqp1cH0EhDb8fm_bvKfXumwBeUdYQ-MPa/s1600/empire+state+3.GIF" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553262057968391042" border="0" /></a></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">As Freud observed, sometimes a building is just a building. And, another of my favorite building ads:</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV3Tbat_uWv4Cbq3D6MxDTNzyMs0fwxPTx2arsodH1JEcZ6x966mqTnP_5KMDC7GBkOQO933hCUAuA3ApEndbdMTfzWd1PSRoiPNrlC2Eah6pwMKkemeMmD9_2vEhjg60IuU99NoRzjM2q/s1600/10E40th.GIF"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 605px; height: 794px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV3Tbat_uWv4Cbq3D6MxDTNzyMs0fwxPTx2arsodH1JEcZ6x966mqTnP_5KMDC7GBkOQO933hCUAuA3ApEndbdMTfzWd1PSRoiPNrlC2Eah6pwMKkemeMmD9_2vEhjg60IuU99NoRzjM2q/s1600/10E40th.GIF" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553259713915569762" border="0" /></a></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">No word on whether the plane does a rooftop airmail delivery ... this building is still there, by the way, close to the main NY Public Library branch on 42nd Street.</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Finally, a couple of ads in the Just Plain Weird department. No matter how many times I look at this next one, I just can't wrap my head around the concept of selecting Edgar Allan Poe to endorse your hospitality business:</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4MCBjwR5z2ab8b0QnWJM9uyL2ARbtbaPGMHC0Qi9ie9YSqWyceuD-Agx6JntkhCtZL-68sCq3_FBhuvSsHvWgCb3R437q4a7ib-19uwd8wZtr9LjPEc9Wal8IELxcBBz7zGZLvXHlo53Q/s1600/poe+endorsement.GIF"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4MCBjwR5z2ab8b0QnWJM9uyL2ARbtbaPGMHC0Qi9ie9YSqWyceuD-Agx6JntkhCtZL-68sCq3_FBhuvSsHvWgCb3R437q4a7ib-19uwd8wZtr9LjPEc9Wal8IELxcBBz7zGZLvXHlo53Q/s400/poe+endorsement.GIF" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553264537334953250" border="0" /></a></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">And finally, the one and only Radiumator - 'nuff said:</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR5oCS4gIZqtbDpYS_XBir5_jJDEaSigZnH0VFHicyx6vL13rYzheU-bbNMxfKdfwBfjPR-RZD1iH2QhgJ3qjd9rjuow3_Rcolqdx9ksXYfx2-95Rpd1iTUZgCIT_jj_8C6S-fEHKhUZUy/s1600/radiumator.JPG"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 606px; height: 617px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR5oCS4gIZqtbDpYS_XBir5_jJDEaSigZnH0VFHicyx6vL13rYzheU-bbNMxfKdfwBfjPR-RZD1iH2QhgJ3qjd9rjuow3_Rcolqdx9ksXYfx2-95Rpd1iTUZgCIT_jj_8C6S-fEHKhUZUy/s1600/radiumator.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553267555457993490" border="0" /></a></p>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com30tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-53881006598693663622010-12-11T11:33:00.001-10:002010-12-11T11:33:26.034-10:00Thursday, September 24, 1931: Dow 115.99 +6.59 (6.0%)<span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;">[Note: Sorry for the gap in posting the past month - have been busy on some other projects. Will try and get back on a more regular schedule this month.]</span></span> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>British crisis update</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Markets rallied </b>powerfully worldwide, making their best showing in many months. <b>The London Stock </b>Exchange reopened after a two-day shutdown while the NYSE and the Curb Exchange rescinded their ban on short selling. <b>The NY and London </b>Stock Exchanges led the worldwide rally; major issues opened strongly, moved up sharply through the day, and closed near their highs. Stock markets in Paris, Milan and Amsterdam also gained, although the Berlin exchange will stay closed this week and the Tokyo Exchange reopened but was quickly closed again after a break in prices. Kreuger & Toll bucked the general trend, closing down sharply in Paris trading. <b>Bonds and commodities </b>were broadly higher.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Sterling settled </b>into a narrow range between $4.08 and $4.145, closing at $4.10 [note: vs. $4.85 the previous week]. However, “business under the new regime is purely tentative” and the volume of currency transactions “has been kept deliberately within the narrowest limits, with banks, both British and foreign, fully respecting the Treasury's instructions, confidential and otherwise.” <b>Canadian dollars </b>rallied to a 6 1/2% discount vs. US dollars from a low of 9%; Italian lire and Swedish kroner also rallied; francs continued above the gold export point from NY; silver currencies rose; Argentine pesos fell sharply.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;">“<span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Confidence is expressed” </b><span style="">that sterling will stabilize after settling to its “economic level.” <b>“While a certain </b>amount of inflation seems likely ... reliance is placed on British common sense to keep situation in hand.”</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Some British circles </b>hope abandonment of the gold standard will finally convince the US and France that the current combination of heavy war debt payments and high tariff walls is unsustainable. As one leading banker said, “we have tried to remain honest in a dishonest world, but can't any longer.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>British public </b><span style="">“</span>absolutely calm”; no danger seen of runs on banks; risk of capital flight seen as small “since immediate rosy business prospects have introduced a general optimism.” <b>British press </b>is presenting the abandonment of the gold standard as “an almost unmixed blessing”; security and commodity prices have been rising, while higher wholesale prices for necessities haven't yet affected retail prices; in cases where inventories are large, it may take some time for retail prices to rise, particularly if the govt. acts against price increases. <b>British corporations </b>seen benefitting from higher internal prices and prospect of increased foreign sales and profits; will likely attempt to keep wages at current levels. “<b>Wholesale foreign </b><span style="">unloading” of British bonds seen unlikely since sellers would have to recognize heavy losses when converting the proceeds into their currencies; “besides, the Treasury has instructed bankers confidentially not to facilitate such exchange operations.” <b>Financial circles </b>uncertain how much international financial business England will lose, but believe it will “rely greatly on its unrivalled machinery and experience” to counter the shock to sterling; “competition from Paris is not expected to be serious and NY remains handicapped by distance.”</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Bank of England </b>Gov. Montagu Norman seen likely to leave office when his term expires, to be succeeded by Sir Josiah Stamp. It's reported that “differences of opinion over abandonment of the gold standard have arisen,” though rumors that Norman would resign shortly were denied. <b>Stanley Baldwin,</b> speaking for the govt., told questioners in the House of Commons the govt. expected no immediate rise in retail prices. <b>Despite govt. </b>insistence that leaving the gold standard isn't that serious since the budget has been balanced, this balance may now be endangered by uncertain prices and the greater weight of debt owed in dollars and francs. On the other hand, improved business may increase tax revenue and decrease spending for the unemployed. With “the attention of the whole world” concentrated on British developments, the govt. is expected to make every effort to maintain the budget balance. </span><span style=""><b>British Conservative </b>followers of Neville Chamberlain reportedly plan to dissolve Parliament Oct. 7 or 8; determined that general election be fought under leadership of PM MacDonald and Stanley Baldwin.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Some foreign </b>govts. took actions to adjust to the British suspension of the gold standard. <b>Italy restricted </b>dealings in foreign currencies in Italian markets, and the govt. interverned to support the lira. <b>Austrian Nat'l Bank</b> “is filling demand for foreign currency only when legitimate requirements are proved.” <b>Sweden raised </b>its discount rate to 5% from 4% on Monday, and a further rise is believed inevitable. The Swedish pulp industry is facing heavy losses due to the depreciation in sterling. <b>Denmark </b>prohibited export of gold. <b>Bank of Finland </b>said it would begin quoting currency prices in US dollars. <b>Bank of Czechoslovakia </b>raised its discount rate to 6% from 5%. <b>Argentine banks </b>“took measures to prevent gambling on exchange operations.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>British importers </b>in Brazil are reportedly underquoting US interests due to the decline in sterling.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Leading retailers </b><span style="">and banks </span>in Buffalo, NY ended their past custom of accepting Canadian dollars.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>The recent drastic </b>decline in foreign dollar bonds has produced some eye-opening yields; at the lows this week few foreign govt. bonds were selling to yield less than 6%, and many issues are selling at prices below their calculated yield to maturity. <b>A striking example </b>of the recent buyer's market in these foreign bonds is seen in Norway dollar bonds; these now yield about 6.9% on average vs. 5.24% in June, in spite of Norway's "unblemished credit record, and ability to survive currency troubles in the past."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Wage cuts update</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>The US Steel </b><span style="">wage cut drew mixed reviews. <b>AFL pres. </b>W. Green issued a strong condemnation, calling it “morally wrong” and claiming “no greater blow ... has yet been struck against the forces which have been and are now serving to bring about a return of prosperity.” <b>Reaction from </b>the steel industry was generally positive, with many producers announcing their intention to follow suit. <b>The White House</b> released a statement saying Pres. Hoover's commitment to maintaining living standards was consistent and unaltered. However, the statement was again carefully parsed for signs of a change in the White House stand against wage cuts; it was considered highly significant that the statement referred only to living standards and not wages, since today's lower cost of living allows the same living standard at lower wages. It was also considered significant that the White House has shown a general disinclination to discuss wages for the past few months. Administration officials generally refused further comment, though Labor Sec. Doak said the Labor Dept. regretted the cuts.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Opinion seemed </b>divided on whether the US Steel wage cut would be followed by price cuts on steel products. <b>A front-page </b>commentary said "the decks have been cleared for a recovery in the steel industry" since the impending prospect of wage cuts had "for a long time been a factor delaying placing" of orders. However, the recovery apparently will be due to "greater effort to attract tonnage and increase operations" rather than price cuts; "it is the view among leaders steel prices should be maintained ... it has been the experience in the industry that orders are not obtained through the slashing of prices." <b>On the other hand,</b> an editorial said it was regrettable US Steel didn't provide more explanation of the cuts, but that "the wage reduction unquestionably means that the Steel Corporation is putting itself in a position to make whatever further price readjustment consumers may effectively demand as a condition of expanding their purchases ... at some level or another prices must prove a stimulant to consumption in this as in every other field." <b>On the other other </b>hand, an item in Broad Street Gossip said some believe the wage cuts will be used to lower prices, but steel makers don't plan on this, pointing out "consumers cannot be attracted ... regardless of quotations [prices], until they have prospects of new business."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>The steel industry's </b>decision to finally make wage cuts was reportedly influenced by the disappointing failure of steel operations to show seasonal post-Labor Day gains; substantial improvement had been hoped for due to the very low rate of operations this year.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Wall Street had </b>anticipated US Steel's wage cut announcement for some time; in fact, many believed "the cut was delayed longer than justified by conditions." The Street's generally favorable reaction to the cuts reflected "the sentiment in business and industrial circles that such a program was essential to trade recovery. ... With living costs substantially lower, and the return on capital notably reduced, it was inevitable that the liquidation of labor would have to be undertaken." <b>The Street </b>is now turning its attention to possible wage cuts by the railroads and other industries. While it's admitted rail wage cuts might be difficult because of "various brotherhoods" [unions], it's believed that with conditions still showing little improvement rail executives will be able to convince govt. officials and labor leaders of the need to lower costs. The positive reaction to steel wage cuts is reducing nervousness over expected wage cuts in other industries. <b>D. Willard,</b> B.& O. RR pres., says rails may eventually be forced to make wage cuts, but believes 15% rate increase would be a better remedy; notes current procedure for rail wage cuts could involve management-labor conferences, mediation, and arbitration, which could stretch over several months.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>GM's 10%-20% </b>salary cuts were their first cut in employee compensation during the depression; GM had already made large cost savings through improved efficiency, producing a relatively strong earnings perfomance in spite of lower sales. The cuts affect only salaried employees (about a quarter of GM's workforce); hourly wage rates remain unchanged. <b>Corn Products </b>Refining Co. seem likely to cut employee compensation for the first time by year-end; dividend cut also likely.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Assorted historical stuff</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Report on the German </b><span style="">situation by the </span>committee of experts meeting in Basel suffered from a certain “sacrifice of clarity” due to serious differences regarding the gravity of Germany's condition. France considers “the patient much less seriously stricken than the patient claims to be”; Germany “would convince the world that the patient cannot live long”; while Britain is somewhere in between. Nevertheless, agreement was reached that Germany needs new long-term loans to replace some of the capital that was suddenly withdrawn earlier this year, and that this would be difficult under current conditions due to a lack of confidence, in spite of the current German trade surplus and the German govt.'s commendable determination to improve its budgetary situation through spending cuts and tax increases. <b>To restore confidence, </b>it was recommended that France and Germany bridge their political differences and that trade barriers be lowered; the British govt. also managed to insert a discreet reference to the need not to burden Germany too heavily by required payments, in spite of the early threat by France to leave the conference if reparations or war debts were brought up. <b>“The governments </b>referred their problem to the experts. The experts have refered it back to the governments.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Japanese forces</b> finished taking control of the South Manchuria Railroad Zone and of Chinese railheads in Manchuria; Japanese casualties in the 5-day operation estimated at 200. <b>League of Nations </b>calls for peace between China and Japan; asks parley to arrange withdrawal of Japanese troops from occupied area. Tokyo's decision seen depending greatly on US attitude. <b>Japan instructs</b> representative an Nanking to accept proposal of Nanking govt. Finance Min. Soong for appointment of joint commission to investigate troubles between China and Japan.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Editorial </b>calling for disposing of the Farm Board's large wheat surplus by selling it to China, whose rice crop has been devastated by flood. While China has already taken 15M bushels of wheat on long-term credit, the Chinese Economic Society estimates it could easily use another 135M; "China must have wheat or rice or else starve." The "white elephant" of wheat stabilization is evidently dead; this is a golden opportunity to bury the corpse. While "China's credit is not of the highest," wheat sold there will at least not oversupply the usual markets, as recent sales by the Farm Board did.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>T. Macauley, </b>Packard Motor pres., issues statement calling for giving the unemployed an “hour of work rather than dollar of dole”; says former enriches both the giver and taker, while latter may impoverish both; hits “the slacker dollar” that is “afraid to venture forth.” Notes particularly that dollars spent on motor cars would have wide impact across the US. Statement has drawn widespread support from manufacturers, bankers, professionals, and “members of the laboring classes.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NY Gov. Roosevelt </b>signed three bills inaugurating his $20M unemployment relief program for NY State. Relief will be administered by a three-member independent panel with broad powers. The program will be paid for through a 50% increase in the state income tax. <b>NY City spending </b>on unemployment relief estimated at $40M in fiscal year ending Oct. 31.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>About 34 states </b>have officially said they will participate in the 1933 World's Fair in Chicago. Several large fair buildings have been completed or are under way, but about $25M of construction remains to be done.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>The population </b>of ancient Rome reached a maximum of 312,000 in 585 B.C. The latest census, taken in May, shows a population of 1,003,881, up 250,000 since Mussolini assumed dictatorship of Italy and 7 times the population in Caesar's time. [Note: can't vouch for the accuracy of these figures.]</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;">[Note: Sounds like my last checkup.] <b>"An English surgeon </b>has come out with the statement that Shakespeare's death 'resulted from complications of fever, typhus, typhoid paralysis, epilepsy, apoplexy, arterio-sclerosis, oversmoking, chronic alcoholism, gluttony, angina pectoris, Bright's disease, pulmonary congestion, and locomotor ataxia.'"</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Market commentary</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Market wrap:</b> Stocks staged a broad and vigorous advance. Buying was widespread at the open, with US Steel a leader; the advance picked up momentum as the morning progressed; rails were a strong spot. Stocks gained further at mid-day after news of gains in European markets. Considerable profit-taking in late afternoon caused some irregularity though the selling was generally well absorbed; however, US Steel suffered a good-sized setback from the day's high and Anaconda broke to a new bear market low. <b>Bonds also </b>staged a strong and wide rally. British 5 1/2s due 1937 opened at 99, up 7 from the previous session's record low, and later reached par; European issues joined the rally, with many showing sharp recoveries; Japanese issues also recovered lost ground. Rail issues experienced the widest and sharpest rally of the year, particularly in recently weak lower-grade issues. Public utility bonds were in strong demand. Trading in US govts. was inactive but prices remained steady to firm. <b>Grains generally </b>higher on dull trading. Cotton rose sharply in spite of good weather reports. Copper remained at record low of 7 cents/pound, though buying is reportedly better. Silver rose 7/8 cent to 29 1/2. Cocoa rose sharply the day after hitting record lows. </span></span> </p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>For the first </b>time in the past 5 sessions, and only the second time in the past 10, the Dow failed to close at a new bear market low.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Market sentiment </b>was improved, though conservative observers advised watching the market for another session "on the theory if new liquidation is to break out it will make its appearance shortly."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Positive factors </b>affecting sentiment included yesterday evening's announcement of 10% wage cuts in the steel industry, optimism over an early decision on the rail rate increase, firm performance of European markets, and the strong market performance after restrictions on short selling were lifted.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>The NYSE removed </b>its restrictions on short selling; this was "looked upon as indicative of confidence on the part of the banking leaders that conditions were nearer normal again." Many observers were more optimistic on the immediate market outlook, though few were willing to buy "for more than a technical turn." <b>Short covering </b>was heavy at times after the removal of the short-selling ban; some bears had reportedly held their positions through the ban since they were unwilling to leave the market, but were now covering "with the idea of putting out short lines again when the rally appears to be reaching its culmination."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>R. Whitney, </b>NYSE pres., issued statement saying the NYSE's ban on short-selling was “not a reversal of its long established policy” but “purely ... an emergency act” taken after British suspension of the gold standard “as a temporary expedient and has therefore been rescinded.” However, says the NYSE Governors “will continue to scrutinize short sales to ascertain the intention behind them.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Large drop in rail car </b>loadings for the week of Sept. 12 (down 91,796 from prev. week to 667,750, and down 30.8% from 1930), while partly accounted for by Labor Day holiday, was "greater than seasonal ... and is a continued reflection of the lessened business activity in many lines."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>There was reportedly </b>a “rather widely held theory that a period of inflation for commodities is getting under way.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Rise in silver </b>prices seen benefiting mining cos. whose ores have silver content, particularly copper miners.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>American Woolen </b>and International Shoe are reportedly experiencing heavy demand and operating at high capacity.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>M. Sloan, </b>NY Edison pres., predicted a repeat in the next two decades of the electric industry's remarkable growth in the past 18 years; while growth from new customers is slowing, a large potential for growth remains in new uses for electricity and increased usage by customers.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>An abundant supply </b>of low-cost meat is predicted for next winter and spring. With wheat and corn at extremely low prices, many farmers are interested in buying thin livestock believing they can do better by using their grain as animal feed; drought conditions in the Northwest have also stimulated sales of "unfinished" livestock.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Economic news and individual company reports</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Steel production </b>for week ended Monday was about 29% vs. slightly over 30% the previous week, 28 1/2% two weeks ago, 60% in 1930, and 83% in 1929.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Weekly steel reviews </b>report steel demand has slipped back to the August level; demand in public construction is still promising, but automotive outlook, instead of showing expected improvement, has become "increasingly obscure." Rail inquiries are very weak, and may be delayed until the wage question is settled in that industry. However, the steel trade believes "abandonment of the gold standard in England and a reduction in steel wage rates here have helped to clear the atmosphere," and "prices are holding surprisingly well, though not subject to severe tests." <b>Machine tool </b>market "very uneven," with increases in some sections offset by "continued dullness elsewhere."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>The President's </b>organization for unemployment relief reports that 10 of 42 locations showed improvement in some lines of business over the past week; generally, little change is reported from week to week.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Report from Wilkes-Barre: </b><span style="">Dime Bank </span>Title & Trust closed, deposits $2.7M; Heights Deposit Bank, taken over by state, deposits $1.7M; Wilkes-Barre Clearing House Assoc. announces local depositors will be required to give 60 days notice before withdrawals; several million dollars in currency received from Philadephia Fed. Reserve Bank for local banks; officials of the clearing house say situation here “satisfactory.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Fed. Reserve </b>Sept. Bulletin stresses strong position of Fed. Reserve system, notes gold held by Reserve banks is now $2B in excess of the requirement of 40% against notes and 35% against deposits; this is about $400M larger than two years ago. US monetary gold stock reached $5B in early Sept., the highest in history. Reserve bank holdings of govt. securities at end of Aug. were $728M, close to a record.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Report by the </b>experts committee in Basel puts total German foreign debt at 25.5B marks in Dec., vs. 23B in July.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Agriculture Dept. </b>reports official estimates for wheat production in 31 countries for 1931 totals 2.720B bushels, down from 2.861B in 1930. However, prices worldwide have continued to be depressed by large carryovers from last year, by large crops in countries with early harvests, and by heavy Russian shipments.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Texas Gov. Sterling </b>signed cotton acreage reduction bill, asked Governors of nine other cotton states to enact similar laws; opponents expected to challenge Constitutionality of the law.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>The ICC heard </b>arguments against the proposed 15% rail freight rate increase from Sen. Brookhart (R., Ia.), representing farmers, and from shipping, coal and lumber interests.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Cicero R. Murray,</b> “generalissimo of military forces enforcing the shutdown of Oklahoma oil fields,” denied reports Gov. Murray had agreed to reopen the fields Wednesday, but said an effort was being made to reach a solution to the shutdown. Gov. Murray had previously threatened to keep wells closed until oil reached $1 a barrel. <b>Texas Railroad </b>Commission's order cutting allowable production per East Texas oil well to 185 barrels/day from 225 has had a beneficial effect, reducing total East Texas production to 366,000 barrels/day from 425,000. However, spot gasoline in the Chicago market was lower as reports of possible reopening of Oklahoma production "is causing some disquietude."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>US electric </b>output for week ended Sept. 19 was 1,663 GWHr, down 3.4% from 1930.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>US shoe output </b>in Aug. was about 31.3M pairs, up over 9% from 1930; first 8 months 219.1M, up 3.8%.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Announcement by </b>Transamerica Corp. that it intends to divest its bank affiliates has created considerable local speculation on the fate of Bank of America, N.A.; there have been reports from time to time that this bank might be merged with a local (NY) one.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>An old Court of Claims</b> decision is seen as a bar to plan of M. Steuer for $30M lawsuit by Bank of US depositors against NY State.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Companies reporting decent earnings:</b> Southern Calif. Edison, Perfect Circle (automotive piston rings).</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Joke</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;">The railroad examiner was giving a candidate for engine driver his final examination. "You're driving an engine down a steep hill and your speed becomes excessive. What do you do?" "Apply the brakes." "They aren't effective." "Put brake handle into emergency position." "Doesn't slow you down enough." "Reverse the engine and turn on steam." "The wheels fail to grip the metals." "Pour sand on metals." "Sand is damp and won't pass through the pipes. Now what do you do?" "Why, let her rip. We must be back on the straightaway by now."</span></span></p>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-12588355741161154892010-11-10T01:52:00.009-10:002010-11-11T04:48:58.401-10:00The Lighter Side of Utter Catastrophe, and Stock Market Poetry<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4jgk7hU3AmVPGfSosGDmrbO0NWVIzLioA8eppuUc1NE37VBnovH6655C1XKGadjQmPIy4MDKFkgYRHa9swNPk0eOFOK9ANptZVGrJE2arcxQlVFvLCemYy6DN9mNDmku9ONw830vrvbzZ/s1600/eddie+cantor+cover.jpg"><img style="float: right; margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; cursor: pointer; width: 233px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4jgk7hU3AmVPGfSosGDmrbO0NWVIzLioA8eppuUc1NE37VBnovH6655C1XKGadjQmPIy4MDKFkgYRHa9swNPk0eOFOK9ANptZVGrJE2arcxQlVFvLCemYy6DN9mNDmku9ONw830vrvbzZ/s320/eddie+cantor+cover.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538303834244760738" border="0" /></a><br /><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;">After writing my <a href="http://newsfrom1930.blogspot.com/2010/10/hall-of-forgotten-geniuses-2.html"> recent note on Eddie Cantor</a>, I did a search on Amazon and was delighted to find that “Caught Short: A Saga of Wailing Wall Street,” a book by Cantor about the Crash, was available. Ten bucks and a week or so later, I was holding said book in my hot little hands - see pics to the right (note to those considering purchase of the book - it does contain some offensive humor).</span> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;">All in all, the book isn't up to Cantor's top standards, but I've taken the liberty of editing a few of the best jokes into a Tonight Show-style monologue:</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><i>The night of the worst crash, I was too scared to go back home, so I went to a big hotel in the city and asked for a room. The clerk looked at me and asked “What for? Sleeping or jumping?”</i></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><i>But that's not as bad as the two fellows who jumped from a bridge together. Seems they had a joint account ...</i></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><i>But seriously, the crash has had some terrible consequences. Here's a few detailed statistics we gathered afterward.</i></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><i>- 150,207,904 new nickels are being produced by the US Mint in 24 hour shifts - for customers who never took the subway before.</i></span><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaWcS33Uq3a-uxZZjtq-6QNui69DtAjpqxvHcTisF9HxQF5GP3oXbO0DNTk-Ew82jmYylqVUg31DgTESU1qs1FMYGA298T6__ouvxkkkg9Flr7P7h4WmEvGI9CdZsvP76Zsk_3t3Jo7qkF/s1600/sleeping+or+jumping.jpg"><img style="float: right; margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; cursor: pointer; width: 223px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaWcS33Uq3a-uxZZjtq-6QNui69DtAjpqxvHcTisF9HxQF5GP3oXbO0DNTk-Ew82jmYylqVUg31DgTESU1qs1FMYGA298T6__ouvxkkkg9Flr7P7h4WmEvGI9CdZsvP76Zsk_3t3Jo7qkF/s320/sleeping+or+jumping.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538304059694141090" border="0" /></a></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><i>- 48,286 nightclubs throughout the country are now catering nightly to 263,679 people - unfortunately, all of them are employees.</i></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><i>- 3,795 women bought certain investment trusts because they had Goldman-Sachs appeal. </i>[Note: interesting that people were making sarcastic jokes about GS even back then ... ]</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><i>- 87,429 married men in New York City had to leave their sweethearts ... and go back to their wives.</i></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;">A little note on the book - this was a quickie small hardcover rushed out after the initial “Great Crash” in 1929. I was amazed to look inside the front cover and see that the first printing was in November, 1929. As all of you no doubt remember from my special commemorative summary last October, the initial Great Crash was roughly a week-long affair starting about Oct. 23, 1929 - so, this book was printed a month or less after the event. Meanwhile, with all our modern technology it now seems to take at least 3 months after a catastrophic event or scandal before the first crappy quickie books start appearing ...</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;">And, another humorous bonus - from time to time the Journal published little poems about the stock market. For some reason, I can't get enough of these ... so here's a little collection for your reading pleasure.</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><b>Wednesday, Nov 1, 1929: Dow 273.51 +15.04 (5.8%)<br /><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;">The Trader's Lament:<br /></span></b><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;">[Note: This appeared a couple of days after the initial Great Crash. The Dow, after hitting a peak of 381.17 on Sept. 3 (not reached again until 1954) had declined to 325.51 at the open Tuesday, Oct. 23. The Crash took place over the following week, ending with a drop of 30.57 points to 230.07 on Oct. 29, AKA Black Tuesday, on which 16.410M shares traded (not reached again until 1968).]<br />“<span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;">They'd said: 'Your list is long and wide and also well diversified.'<br />Later: 'Margin! Send it quick! Your holdings look a little sick.'<br />O, boil me well in Standard Oil! I'd slipped from Anaconda's coil<br />when Purity touched fifty-five - down forty-four, O Man Alive!<span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><br />I wriggled like a frightened eel from out the avalanche of Steel.<br />'Margin!' 'Hold on, I'm nearly broke; Sell Pennsylvania Coal & Coke.'<br /></span>They'd sold my Motors, sold my Copper; when Adolf Gobel came a cropper<br />they backed me up against the wall and pickled me in Alcohol. ...<br />Farewell to old AT&T and all I owned from A to Z<br />had vanished like the morning dew (they had to take my IOU).<br />I'm sick and tired of raids and marches; I've nothing now but fallen arches.<br />Alas, that this should come to pass - Garcon, turn on that Brooklyn Gas!”</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><b>Wednesday, July 9, 1930: Dow 219.08 +0.75 (0.3%)<br /></b>“In stocks of wood no longer should one bear incarceration,<br />but hand and foot are many put 'in stocks' for long duration.<br />At each 'new low' as the markets go locked up in stocks securely -<br />for a long time yet some folks will sweat bound hand and foot most surely. - Gordon Price”</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><b>Wednesday, September 10, 1930: Dow 244.29 +1.45 (0.6%)<br /><i><span style="color:#000000;">Ode to the new high-speed stock ticker</span></i></b><i><span style="color:#000000;">:</span></i><br />“A clever contraption within its black box -<br />Its figures flash out swift and sure on all stocks;<br />No matter how hectic the trading may get,<br />what millions it mounts to, its pace shall be met.<br />Ah, had we but had it last fall 'neath glass bell -<br />Twelve million, sixteen - whole world wanting to sell -<br />those agonized hours when the truth none could know -<br />the old ticker smothered because 'twas too slow.<br />This dainty swift prodigy, blithely abreast<br />of any big market, such fears sets at rest.<br />And yet this great boon - human nature is such -<br />at moment of getting it doesn't seem much.<br />Like Flora McFlimsy of Washington Square,<br />(that worthy young lady with nothing to wear)<br />this nifty speed marvel that's just come on view,<br />has cause for complaint - it has nothing to do.”</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><b>Wednesday, February 18, 1931: Dow 179.55 -3.33 (1.8%)<br /><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="color:#000000;"><i>Poem by F. Caverly</i></span></span></b><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="color:#000000;"><i>:</i><br />"A LAMB IS SHORN<br />... A thousand dollars send by check, your margin with us to protect.<br />With faith in Steel I held the stock; more margin sent from cash in sock.<br />A 10 point loss I took in Steel, again to try the gambling wheel.<br />Bought Woolworth, Can and Brothers Burns; To beat the game one never learns ...<br />As traders will, bought Radio, but picked it high and sold it low ...<br />I tried again; good rails I bought; they, too, went down and havoc wrought ...<br />The fool I was! I stayed and played; Put up more cash - more tips I played.<br />But now I'm wise. Of stocks bereft, all profits gone - no margin left;<br />Without a penny to my name, I'm off for life that market game."</span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><b>Thursday, February 26, 1931: Dow 190.72 -3.64 (1.9%)<br /><span style="color:#000000;"><i>Poem by A. Ellard</i></span></b><span style="color:#000000;"><i>:</i><br />"Out of the gloom that covers me, dark and dank as grave's grim sod,<br />I thank what lucky stars there be, For my imperishable 'wad'. ...<br />It matters not how fares the soul, So sorely tried by Wall Street's god;<br />I am the master of my 'Roll'; I am the captain of my 'Wad.'"<br />[Note: This is an improved version of the Victorian poem 'Invictus,' by W.E. Henley:<br />"Out of the night that covers me, Black as the Pit from pole to pole,<br />I thank whatever gods may be, For my unconquerable soul. ..."]</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Monday, April 27, 1931: Dow 151.98 -3.78 (2.4%)<br /><i>Poem by F. Caverly</i></b><i>:</i></span><br />Now isn't it a funny thing That tips are all bologney?<br />I started once with that 'shoe string' To swell my patrimony.<br />When I was told some stock to buy -- Tip, hot as the equator --<br />I rushed right in and bought it high; That's what they told me later.<br />They told me next 'twas best to sell; Short, that's the market patter;<br />Good news came out my stock rose --- hell! To you it doesn't matter.<br />With just two ways for stocks to go -- Up or down, or rise or slump --<br />Why doesn't some one really know One in which the cat will jump?</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Monday, May 18, 1931: Dow 142.95 -1.54 (1.1%)<br /><i>Poem by F. Caverly</i></b><i>:</i></span><br />"You hear it said, where men powwow, 'The finest stocks are cheap;<br />A man should really buy 'em now, if he'd a fortune reap.<br />Across the Board the best blue chips are yearning to be bought.'<br />And then they all have further dips to fret a mind distraught.<br />That frequent urge harasses me: 'Man, buy - get on the job.'<br />As if I were, perhaps, J.P., or Henry Ford, or Schwab.<br />Four times have stocks seemed at their low, (some say this is the fifth),<br />While men cried 'Buy, you dumb bozo,' but failed to say what with."</span></span></p>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com33tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-66986997360593466102010-10-30T16:59:00.000-10:002010-10-30T17:00:15.905-10:00Wednesday, September 23, 1931: Dow 109.40 -1.43 (1.3%)<i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>British crisis special</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#000000;">“<span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><b>Great Britain's </b><span style="">second day off the gold standard, as far as the man in the street was concerned, found the country carrying on under the war-time slogan 'business as usual.' Everyone was pursuing his normal vocation and so far there had been no popular manifestations or demonstrations. Retail prices for the ordinary necessities of life had not increased. Movie theater audiences were not diminished.” Public has apparently heeded appeals of PM MacDonald and Chancellor Snowden not to “rock the boat.” <b>British govt. </b>is reportedly promising prompt action “to prevent excessive retail price increases and profiteering.” <b>PM MacDonald, </b>“fatigued by the recent critical developments, plans to rest in the country several days.” <span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>British Treasury </b><span style="">restricted purchase of foreign currency by British subjects, other than for normal trade or to fulfill existing contracts. </span></span></span></span></span>British business with foreign connections was hampered by the inability to transfer funds even for normal trade, since quotes couldn't be obtained on some currencies. <span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>London department </b><span style="">stores held off on placing orders for US goods, while US wholesale buyers in London increased their purchases, since British goods were about 15% cheaper. </span></span></span></span></span><b>S. African gold </b><span style="">was not </span>offered in London Tuesday as producers held it back for a higher price.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Foreign currency </b><span style="">market in NY “continued in a disorganized condition, although it was possible to get bid and offered rates on most leading currencies.<span style="">” <span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;">Sterling settled into a narrower range in NY trading, ranging from $4.10 to $4.225. </span></span></span></span></span>Movement in other currencies was “bewildering.” Francs were a lone strong point, rising </span><span style=""><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;">close to the gold export point from NY. </span></span></span></span>Italian lira plunged; Italy, along with Germany and other European countries, is on the “gold exchange standard,” giving central banks the option of paying out sterling or other gold currencies rather than gold, and so depend on holdings of sterling and other foreign currencies to back their own currency. Scandinavian and Canadian currencies <span style=""><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;">broke sharply, to the lowest levels since postwar stabilization</span></span></span></span></span>. Swiss francs and guilders were “lower but fairly strong, all things considered.” Silver currencies fell back slightly after a sharp rally Monday.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>In "one of the greatest </b><span style="">gold transactions in history," several European central banks reportedly "earmarked" $116M in gold (in effect exporting it from the US) with the proceeds of liquidated US investments. This is the first substantial loss of gold by the US since the summer of 1930 when about $100M was exported to France and Canada. US exports this year up to Sept. 16 were $75M vs. imports of $500M, bringing US gold holdings to the record high of $5.015B on that date. Demand for gold may be due to serious effect of British crisis on many central banks which carried large amounts of sterling as reserves or held balances in London; Bank of France particularly exposed. France, Switzerland, Holland and Italy “probably involved” in the earmarking transaction.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Stock markets reopened </b><span style="">in Amsterdam and Brussels; trading continued in Paris, Rome and Milan; substantial improvement reported in leading shares, while prices also rose in unofficial London trading; NYSE trading calmer; foreign govt. bonds generally higher. <b>Stocks of British </b><span style="">cos. trading on the Curb (later Amex), as well as those of US cos. doing business in England, recovered from Monday declines “almost without exception.” </span> </span><b>“Assurances from </b><span style="">leading financiers, both here and abroad, that England's action should prove an aid to world recovery, served to lessen nervousness.”</span><b> London stock </b><span style="">exchange to reopen today; Berlin will remain closed. </span><b>Bond trading </b><span style="">resumed in Tokyo; prices sharply lower.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>US investments </b>in Britain are believed relatively small, and are largely direct investments such as branch factories rather than in securities. Total long-term US investment in Britain estimated at $640M vs. $4B in Canada; US holdings of British bonds about $140M.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Mexico sees </b><span style="">possibility of considerable trade now going to the US being diverted to England as a result of England's suspension of the gold standard. Mexico is showing keen interest in the British move since it's seen as paralleling her own earlier action in making silver pesos legal tender and demonetizing gold.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>High Administration </b><span style="">officials optimistic on effects of British suspension of gold standard; seen increasing British exports but without great effect on US trade since US and British goods don't compete much in other markets. Action has resolved major uncertainty that had been looming for many months, causing various complications. Action seen improving general British situation, which will benefit the US.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>"Important banking </b><span style="">interests expressed considerable optimism over the outlook for American securities, voicing the belief that the present British policy would bring gradually increasing demand into Wall Street from all parts of the world." </span><b>Bankers predicted </b><span style="">US markets "would be the repository of the world's investors to the greatest degree in history in the next decade." </span><b>Several favorable </b><span style="">developments seen following the dramatic British action: First, stocks listed on the NYSE were "able to absorb the world's frightened liquidation, not only without collapse but actually on a rising scale of prices." Second, with England temporarily off the gold standard, the US dollar "becomes the outstanding gold standard of the world"; Brazil has already adopted the dollar as a basis for exchange instead of the pound, and Chile is considering transfer of reserves from London to NY. Finally, benefits to the US won't be at the expense of England; on the contrary, British exports are expected to be stimulated by a lower sterling level, and "inflationary tendencies resulting in Great Britain from abandoning the gold standard" will probably result in higher commodity prices throughout the world, as indicated by immediate jump in silver.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Editorial </b><span style="">noting predictions that NY can now "succeed to London's age-old leadership in world finance." While the British crisis unquestionably gives the US a great opportunity, this transition has been prophesied before without materializing - for example, following the world war. Whether it happens now will depend on some unanswered questions. First, there must be "a restoration of America's confidence in herself." On this score, the NYSE's performance Monday was splendidly encouraging, but the weakness in "domestic bonds, which could not conceivably be adversely affected in their intrinsic worth" by the British crisis, "was a refusal by much of the investing public of its part in leadership." Second, there must be "some sort of reconciliation ... between business and politics"; it's particularly to be hoped that the "economic debris of the war" can be tackled based on "present-day realities rather than ... bogus tradition." “</span><b>Without a doubt </b><span style="">we shall have to replace nervousness with a sane self-confidence if we are to accept even temporarily the leadership of world finance. As a matter of fact, signs are beginning to appear that that replacement has begun.”</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style=""><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Wages, wages, wages</b>:</span></span></span></i></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Announcements of cuts </b><span style="">in employee compensation came from three leading industries. </span><b>US Steel announced </b><span style="">general wage cuts for the first time in the depression, averaging about 10%; other steel makers indicated they would follow suit. This follows US Steel's action in late July cutting salaried employees by 10%-15%. </span><b>GM announced </b><span style="">salary cuts of 10%-20%; hourly wage rates weren't affected. </span><b>US Rubber </b><span style="">adopted a 5-day week, cutting salaries by one eleventh.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>There was no official </b><span style="">Washington reaction to the US Steel announcement, though "it is known that the attitude of the Administration is still for maintenance of high wages where possible"; Labor Sec. Doak refused comment.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Rep. W. Wood, </b><span style="">House Appropriations Committee chair., proposes reducing annual salary of members of Congress to $8,000 from $10,000, for annual savings of $1.062M.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Over 3,000 members </b>of the Amer. Fed. of Full-Fashioned Hosiery Workers revolted against new national agreement between union and manufacturers cutting wages by 30%-50%; seven mills idle.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Two letters </b><span style="">to the editor on the wage question. One argues that lower wages would allow lower-priced goods, which would stimulate industry. The other calls for a comparative table of wages paid by major industries, making it clearer if "certain groups were demanding excessive wages."</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>H. Firestone, </b><span style="">Firestone Tire & Rubber pres., recommends five-hour day and five-day week as temporary measure to meet the depression.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Soviet Supreme </b><span style="">Council of National Economy announced 30% wage increase in all branches of coal and metallurgy industries in order to increase productivity and quality; also instituted system of bonuses enabling administrative and technical personnel to double their earnings.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Assorted historical stuff</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Pres. Hoover's </b><span style="">appeal to the American Legion convention drew support from prominent Legion officials; sentiment among delegates reportedly also moved toward his position that the US can't at this time afford large new spending, such as cashing in the full value of veterans' bonuses, without prolonging the depression.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Under-Sec. of State </b><span style="">Castle says US govt. determined to bring about “real limitation and reduction” of armaments; notes “competition in armaments is one of the greatest of war breeders and all wars leave an aftermath of depression which brings suffering into every home.”</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Editorial </b><span style="">noting recent Japanese-Chinese clashes in Manchuria, and general "equanimity" with which the world has greeted them. While this is partly due to pressing troubles elsewhere, it's also because the current situation is a logical continuation of recent history, in which Russia and Japan have alternated attempts to undermine the "nominal and weakening Chinese national authority. ... It is in no way surprising ... that the outside world refuses to excite itself over an affair, which, though it seems to reveal pretty baldly Japan's intention eventually to make another Korea of Manchuria, is absolutely consistent with her activities there for the past 20 to 30 years." [Note: Japan occupied Korea in 1905, remaining there until after World War 2.]</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Editorial by </b><span style="">T. Woodlock quoting recent speech given in Scotland by Ambassador Dawes, who observed that "it was not at times of adversity that mankind made its mistakes, but in times of prosperity." Times of crisis have the benefit of teaching "people that they are absolutely interdependent" and making "compromises and sacrifices ... 'politically' possible." The current distress will silence "demagogues who ... by promoting international prejudices for internal political purposes, ... delay ... sensible and constructive agreements of mutual self-interest among the nations." </span><b>However, Woodlock </b><span style="">says this hopeful observation may not apply to the US since "we know little of the 'common hardship' that is the fate of the Old World today ... our 'good times' are far 'better' than the Old World's 'good times' and our 'hard times' much less 'hard.'" The 1932 election will be a test of whether the US can resist "the demagoguery of today." It will be the first Presidential election held in hard times since the 1896 campaign. While there was demagoguery then too, "it was of a simpler and more robust type," with "not a little of the pioneer spirit. The men who led it ... believed in something, even if it was only silver." By contrast, the "demagoguery of today ... talks in 'scientific' terms, and the essence of its doctrine is an all-corroding skepticism as to the worth of ... individual strength and individual responsibility. ... It has a consuming hatred of individual success ... and its aim is to wrest from the hands of the competent and place in the hands of the less competent the power to manage the social, political and economic affairs of the nation." If the current crisis hasn't taught us "enough to ... hold the main road, ... we may confidently expect that our schooling will continue until it does."</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Interior Sec. </b>Wilbur says pleased with progress of oil states in lowering production to bring it more in line with demand; particularly pleased oil states have recognized conservation is a local problem; good progress made in unit (cooperative) production in California field of Kettleman Hills.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Assoc. Against the Prohibition </b><span style="">Amendment reports to Congress that so far in 1931 it has raised $410,769 and spent $391,658; about a third of contributions came from the du Pont family; J. Raskob contributed $40,000.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Radio Corp.</b><span style=""> (RCA) is working hard on television, and will reportedly be ready to market a set in 1932.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>"Obelisk Illumination"</b><span style=""> - When the Washington Monument was erected about 50 years ago, it seemed unlikely that it would ever impede traffic. Now, however, the structure has become a hazard to aviators, and officials have just completed successful tests for lighting the monument at night to minimize the danger.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>The last Presidential </b><span style="">team of horses and carriage disappeared several years ago, but the White House stables remained standing until recently, when they were ordered demolished to make room for the new Public Health Service building.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>The economic </b><span style="">downturn will reportedly be reflected in wage cuts for big league baseball players next year. However, "from the size of pay checks some of them draw they will still be able to make a pretty fair living after the cut." Highest salaried players: Babe Ruth of the New York Americans, $80,000; Hornsby of the Cubs, $40,000; "Hack" Wilson, also of the Cubs, $35,000.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>C.V. Whitney to</b> dispose of “about 60 of his best thoroughbred mares and several young stallions”; 25% of proceeds to go to the unemployed.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Market commentary</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Market wrap:</b><span style=""> Tuesday's stock trading provided considerably less excitement than the extreme swings seen on Monday, as "a noteworthy degree of confidence" appeared to replace the initial "general feeling of dismay" following British suspension of the gold standard. Prices firmed after a weak opening, with leading issues rising above Monday's closing prices. "Considerable irregularity" developed at mid-day, but "the general list continued to give a satisfactory account of itself. Moderate setbacks in the principal stocks attracted prompt support, and reactionary tendencies proved unable to gain headway." </span><b>Bond trading </b><span style="">irregular. Major foreign bonds mostly moved higher, but volume was much lower than in Monday's session and price moves showed unusually wide variation, ranging from sharp gains in some issues to sharp losses in others; German and British bonds rallied; Italian weak. US govts. moderately higher. Corporate issues continued lower; Dow average of 40 corp. bonds closed at new post-1924 low of 88.56, down 0.24. </span><b>Grains mostly firm, </b><span style="">though Sept. corn broke to a new season-low under heavy deliveries by "Thomas M. Howell, the leading spot corn holder," who accumulated 8M bushels while orchestrating a short squeeze in July and hedged by shorting Sept. corn. Wheat market here ignored further sharp gains at Liverpool as merely reflecting a lower sterling value. Cotton up moderately. Coffee fell sharply; cocoa hit new record lows but rallied to close flat. Silver fell 5/8 cents to 28 5/8, retreating from its sharp rise Monday.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Dow industrial </b><span style="">average closed at a new bear market low; there were no new yearly highs and 207 new lows.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>"There was talk in </b><span style="">the Street" that the ban on short selling might be lifted by the NYSE in the next few days. </span><b>A number of stocks </b><span style="">have experienced sharp runups as shorts found it costly to exit, including Reading and Western Union.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Several leading bears </b><span style="">have reportedly switched to the "constructive side"; believing that with the British situation coming to a head, one of the most powerful negative factors has been passed, some have been buying stocks they believe likely to benefit from a market turn.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>An increasing </b><span style="">number of brokers favors the purchase of stocks and bonds that have declined to levels that are obviously too low based on earnings or outlook.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Movie companies </b><span style="">have declined sharply, considering their "large earning possibilities"; Loews, which has the smallest debt and highest earnings per share in the group, is selling to yield over 10%.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>An increasing number </b><span style="">of rails is expected to follow NY Central's lead in borrowing directly from banks instead of attempting to sell bonds.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Some skeptics dismissed </b><span style="">the impressive resistance shown by the stock market Monday as artificial, pointing to the "virtual prohibition of short selling. However, the best opinion was that the market had given a remarkable demonstration of technical strength in face of extremely troubled circumstances." While early support may have been due to short covering, the continued strength throughout the day was seen as indicating that "genuine demand for stocks was greater than the forced liquidation from every part of the world, a development that created growing confidence regarding the immediate future of the market."</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>The bond market </b><span style="">has recently suffered from "almost complete lack of interest ... on the buying side ... broad declines are shown when any holder of bonds finds it necessary to dispose of even a small block. Investors show no interest in yields, although in multitudes of cases these are so large as to satisfy the most extravagant desire. Their attitude toward obligations seemed to be governed entirely by fear," at least regarding foreign govt. bonds and corp. bonds both domestic and foreign. As one example, German international 5 1/2's due 1965 are available at about 40, giving a 13 3/4% direct annual yield. Bankers say there's a large amount of money "awaiting investment in bonds" but staying on the sidelines due to fear; therefore, "any indication of price stabilization would bring heavy buying, which ultimately would start bonds on a violence advance." On the other hand, "present sentiment ... it is unlikely to prompt such buying as long as prices continue to sink."</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Economic news and individual company reports</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Radio Corp. </b><span style="">of America settled a large number of lawsuits with independent radio manufacturers, involving a total of $60M in claims; will pay $1M to the DeForest Radio Corp. and cross-license patents with it; other mfrs. will drop antitrust suits and obtain licenses of RCA patents. D. Sarnoff, RCA pres., praises the amicable settlement as freeing radio industry from the litigation that has burdened it; the settlement will allow radio makers to concentrate on developing new products, and should stimulate business as a whole. This leaves the govt. antitrust suit against RCA, GE, Westinghouse and AT&T as the only major litigation facing RCA.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Income tax revenue </b><span style="">is down sharply from a year ago; income tax receipts for July 1 - Sept. 19 were $296.6M vs. 488.8M; for the period, Treasury reported a deficit of $358.1M for the period vs. a surplus of $14.0M a year ago.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Pres. Hoover's</b><span style=""> organization on unemployment relief reports state highway construction employed 370,000 workers in Aug., up from 325,000 in July.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Rail freight loadings </b><span style="">for week ended Sept. 12 were 667,750, down 91,796 from prev. week, down 30.8% from 1930 week, and down 42.0% from 1929. Declines vs. previous years were exaggerated due to Labor Day falling in the Sept. 12 week this year.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>ICC is expected</b><span style=""> to issue its decision on the rail rate increase with "unprecedented dispatch," possibly within the next month. </span><b>Rails are </b><span style="">anxiously awaiting the decision; favorable action by the ICC is expected to result in advances in many rail bonds from current low levels.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Weekly bank </b><span style="">statements showed "continuation of the general deflationary tendencies that have been in progress for months." Loans, which ordinarily rise in early Sept., have fallen $147M in the past two weeks, in spite of $80M in new British loans. Holdings of non-govt. securities fell last week by $41M, bringing the total about $300M below the April peak and down to the lowest level since Jan., while govt. securities rose by $227M; this continued reduction in non-govt. securities partly accounts for the recent weakness in bond prices. Demand deposits at member banks are down sharply; current total of $13.134B is $700M off from the year's peak and the lowest at this time of year since 1928; "these deposit drops, which are non-seasonal and drastically large in extent, clearly indicate that there are still no signs of returning confidence, or expanding trade."</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>BLS reports </b><span style="">US building permits totaled $127.1M in August vs. $112.1M in July, but down 10.3% from Aug. 1930. Compared to 1930, residential construction fell 22.6% while nonresidential increased 1.5%.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NY Cotton Exchange </b>estimates world consumption of US cotton for the 1930-31 season at 11.1M bales vs. 13.0M in 1929-30.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Argentina accepts </b>$25M US loan negotiated by Brown Bros. Harriman; matures in 6 - 9 months, at 6% interest.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Suez Canal </b><span style="">traffic payments will henceforth be payable in francs rather than sterling.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>The European art world </b>showed “hardiness and courage” this summer in spite of the depression; exhibitors “provided both quantity and quality” in the summer's art events; auction houses generally refused to postpone important sales and, in several cases, their optimism was more than justified.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Airplane and engine</b><span style=""> production (commercial and military) for the first 7 months totaled $21.8M, down 5.1% from 1930; sales were $22.9M, down 2.2%.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Companies reporting decent earnings:</b><span style=""> Canadian Hydro-Electric, Federal Water Service, Brooklyn & Queens Transit.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Movies</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style=""><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><i>Karamazov </i><span style="font-style: normal;">- Tobis Klangfilm of Germany has followed the example of its rival UFA in taking over a US theatre to be devoted entirely to its releases - the Vanderbilt on 48th St. The first offering, unfortunately, is this film, "ostensibly based on the famous novel" but converted to a "garbled, incoherent, blood-and-thunder script" that "might pass for an Edgar Wallace mystery thriller"; "the ironic contrast of Dostoyevsky's subtle characterizations with the mechanical antics of the stock characters of melodrama makes the picture ridiculous."</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style=""><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><i>The Squaw Man </i><span style="font-style: normal;">- MGM film, at the Capitol. Cecille B. DeMille remakes his earlier silent film; Warner Baxter stars as </span><i>Jim Carston,</i><span style="font-style: normal;"> a wealthy Englishman who comes to the American West to forget his cousin's beautiful wife; Lupe Velez plays the Native American girl who saves </span><i>Jim's </i><span style="font-style: normal;">life and wins his love. Effort to bring the theme up to date by adding current-day scenes doesn't work, but film succeeds as "the old-fashioned melodrama that it is." DeMille has "made a beautiful motion picture ... the Western scenes are entrancingly photographed and directed."</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Joke</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="color:#000000;">Teacher - Johnny, how old is a person born in 1890? Johnny - Man or woman?</span></span></span></p>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com22tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-48427716522816033472010-10-14T16:55:00.007-10:002010-12-26T10:37:14.542-10:00The Hall of Forgotten Geniuses 2<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7feemLI13B-ICiKj89EvBSYsiH-IzQchKdNK8gfoXEAHKU0s5Q9da3nDZV5TpexbrN86ZCtL2UFKpMppD-e5J5B5yaXss_yTZI1yeJl5KUSl8_Ie6fRMb8vQdMhAme_GQi3r-kwdH-k-V/s1600/eddie+nbc+small.JPG"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 266px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7feemLI13B-ICiKj89EvBSYsiH-IzQchKdNK8gfoXEAHKU0s5Q9da3nDZV5TpexbrN86ZCtL2UFKpMppD-e5J5B5yaXss_yTZI1yeJl5KUSl8_Ie6fRMb8vQdMhAme_GQi3r-kwdH-k-V/s320/eddie+nbc+small.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5528102897890724706" border="0" /></a><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Continuing my little series on the amazing forgotten performers and artists of 1930. Our second Forgotten Genius is the extremely talented funnyman Eddie Cantor. It's kind of surprising he's so forgotten now, because he was a big star for a long time, and hugely successful in a wide variety of media, including vaudeville, Broadway, radio, movies, books, and television </span><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">- in fact, he was one of the very few real-life people to <a href="http://www.nyctourist.com/macys_history1.htm">have a balloon in the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade</a> </span><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">(coincidentally, he's now a minor character on the new HBO show, Boardwalk Empire). Instead of blathering on about Eddie's many performing skills, through the miracle of Youtube I can just show them to you. Starting with his not inconsiderable song and dance ability - in my opinion, he should be a hall of famer just based on what he does with his eyes in this clip (he didn't get the nickname “Banjo Eyes” for nothing!):</span> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><object height="344" width="425"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/ANRPmTZRqkg?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/ANRPmTZRqkg?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" height="344" width="425"></embed></object></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANRPmTZRqkg">Play "Eddie Cantor - Makin' Whoopee" on Youtube.</a></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Completely irrelevent digression - this scene is from <i>Whoopee!</i>, a 1930 movie made using Technicolor Process 3, which came out in 1928. This was the first color movie process to really catch on - quite a few big-budget movies were made entirely using this process in 1928-31, and many others used it for selected scenes (including Howard Hughes' <i>Hell's Angels</i>, covered in Forgotten Geniuses 1). The process required filming with a special camera that simultaneously exposed two adjacent strips of black and white film behind red and green filters. The result could look quite odd - I think I've heard it called “any color you want, as long as it's pink.” However, as you can see in the clip above, it could also look pretty good - I assume this was because the colors in the scene were carefully chosen to match those that could be successfully filmed.</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Continuing with song-and-dance, here's an interesting curiosity - an experimental sound film from 1923 (!), in which Eddie sings a couple of surprisingly risque vaudeville numbers. For those who wonder what vaudeville was like ...</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><object height="344" width="425"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/o9VkR95f2tA?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/o9VkR95f2tA?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" height="344" width="425"></embed></object></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9VkR95f2tA">Play "Eddie Cantor in 1923" on Youtube.</a></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Incidentally, according to the most authoritative authority of our time - <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddie_Cantor">Wikipedia</a> - Cantor was responsible for what's believed to be the first case of television censorship - on May 25, 1944, WNBT (now WNBC) in New York cut the sound and blurred the picture on some lines of his song “We're Havin' Baby, My Baby and Me.”</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Moving on to some physical comedy, here's a scene with Eddie and Charlotte Greenwood as a very personal trainer (she also does a dead-on Marlene Dietrich impression). If you're not laughing out loud by the end of this clip, you may need to be checked for a pulse ...</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><object height="344" width="425"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/ckWWjYsza3o?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/ckWWjYsza3o?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" height="344" width="425"></embed></object></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckWWjYsza3o">Play "Eddie Cantor - I'm dying" on Youtube.</a></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">And last but not least, a little fast-talking Marx Brothers style comedy. A clip in which Eddie plays a strangely modern management consultant:</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><object height="344" width="425"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/VsBlN0-e-gE?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/VsBlN0-e-gE?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" height="344" width="425"></embed></object></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsBlN0-e-gE">Play "Eddie Cantor - The efficiency expert" on Youtube.</a></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">And another Marx Brothers style clip (specifically Captain Spaulding) - I mostly included this one because the woman playing opposite him (Eve Sully) is so darn cute.</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><object height="344" width="425"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Yc18l4V08OM?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Yc18l4V08OM?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" height="344" width="425"></embed></object></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yc18l4V08OM">Play "Eddie Cantor - It was a small dog!" on Youtube.</a></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">(Note: These clips have a way of disappearing for one reason or another, so if you particularly like one I'd consider downloading it ...)</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Sources for the above, aside from the 1930 Wall Street Journal:</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddie_Cantor</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technicolor</span></p>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-64503157522177633332010-10-10T15:49:00.001-10:002010-10-10T15:54:21.160-10:00Tuesday, September 22, 1931: Dow 110.83 -0.91 (0.8%)<p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><b>Note: </b>Sorry for the delay in posting, but as you'll see this day was a pretty eventful one with about double the normal quota of news, and I didn't want to skimp on the coverage because of the significance of the events. Also, I'd put this day as a whole in the Strangely Familiar Dept., although to do so you'll have to apply the [US now = Great Britain then] mapping that I proposed <a href="http://newsfrom1930.blogspot.com/2009/06/impressions-of-week-june-16-21-1930.html">over a year ago</a>:<br /> <i>I'm ashamed to admit ... it hadn't occurred to me that while the current situation might bear some resemblance to 1930, the countries might have to be shuffled around to really make things correspond ... Well, if China now is us then, then who then are we now? Let's see ... proud owner of the world's reserve currency franchise ... running sizable merchandise trade deficits ... I think I got it! (Hint: Baring Attire).</i></span><i><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"> </span></i><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><br />(Baring Attire was, of course, an anagram for Great Britain.) When you apply that substitution, the current brouhaha over the dollar's dramatic decline does have a familar feel ...</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Momentous Event Followed by Curiously Reassuring Commentary Dept.</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Britain abandoned </b>the gold standard for at least 6 months, suspending its legal commitment to sell gold bullion in exchange for sterling "to any person who makes demand" at the Bank of England; also raised discount rate to 6% from 4 1/2%. <b>Sterling broke </b>below $4 (from $4.85 on Saturday), but rallied to close at $4.33. Other currencies fluctuated widely, but with little actual trading; currency trading was suspended at many foreign centers. <b>Most stock markets </b>worldwide were closed, including those in London, Berlin, most of Europe, and Tokyo; markets remained open in NY, Paris and Vienna. Stocks in NY and Paris suffered "drastic liquidation"; NY rallied off early lows, but Paris market remained very weak, with leading shares off 12% to 15% and brokers limiting sales to 5% of holdings. <b>Paris officials </b>discussed closing the stock exchange there, indicating “possibility that the NY exchanges might have to bear the brunt of international liquidation.” <b>Stock exchanges </b>in Toronto and Montreal remained open, but restricted all trades to be at or above Saturday's close and prohibited short sales; this “had the effect of stagnating business.” <b>London saw </b>a small amount of stock trading in the “unofficial market held in the street” Monday; prices rose appreciably from Saturday's close. <b>British banks </b>in Paris temporarily stopped cashing checks drawn on London banks. Swiss banks in Geneva were “refraining from all foreign dealings.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>"Now that Britain's </b>heroic but futile effort to maintain the pre-war value of the pound has come to a climax, the future of many other exchanges and even of the gold standard itself hangs in the balance." Other currencies "have been widely influenced in the past by sterling." <b>Current British action </b>seen as a temporary expedient to give Britain “a breathing spell” to put its “economic and political affairs ... in order.” However, next steps, including possible tariff and likelihood of eventual return to gold standard, are uncertain. <b>Devaluation of sterling </b>now seen by most as inevitable, though no one can yet say to what level and a minority still believes Britain should maintain sterling's value in order to keep its “primacy as a world money center.” <b>"Sterling will </b>probably be allowed to find its natural level, without artificial influence"; bankers believe sterling is unlikely to fall much below $4 unless “unduly depressed by speculators.” <b>Britain may get </b>some benefits as well as disadvantages from devaluation; NY bankers contrasted England's long efforts to maintain sterling's value with past devaluations by France, Italy, and many other countries, by which they reduced their internal debt burden and eventually brought gold back. Immediate effect on budget balance seen as adverse, but long-term effect probably favorable. Devaluation would cause some inflation, but “there is in England considerable opinion that inflation would be helpful,” and may even be necessary for economic recovery. <b>Industrial leaders </b>believe the pound should be reestablished substantially below the old value, arguing benefits to British industry won't be felt unless pound is below $4.40. <b>International currency </b>conference seen as inevitable; "out of such a conference may come a real solution to the gold problem which has finally broken history's most enduring currency."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>British Parliament was </b>in session Monday to ratify the govt. action taken Sunday. A bill was introduced for suspension of the gold standard, with passage assured. Chancellor Snowden said there would be no restriction on import or export of gold. <b>Labor said </b>it would not oppose the bill provided govt. answered questions on its operation. The House of Commons was quiet, with the recent “militant noisiness of the labor opposition” not in evidence. <b>Editorial reaction </b>in the British press was “virtually unanimous in calling the temporary abandonment of the gold standard one of the greatest blessings that could befall the country”; action seen stopping drain of gold from Britain and leading to improved business and higher security prices.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Editorial </b>generally approving of the British action; "Protection of its remaining stock of gold from attack by apprehensive bankers in other countries is not only Britain's obvious duty to herself, but the measure best calculated to halt a disorderly and demoralizing transfer of gold and credits which was lately assuming the character of an international panic. Stripped of its dramatic and sentimental aspects, it is only what has been done before in emergencies." Action may persuade the US and France "to a more actively helpful cooperation for world stability then they have yet extended." Too early to say if measure will lead to revaluation of the pound "which it unavoidably suggests," but in any case reduction will "almost certainly be nothing like as severe" as those already performed on leading European currencies. Notes reassuring declaration by British govt. that "it has no intention of impairing ... the integrity of British obligations abroad"; since these are mostly payable in foreign currency, they "will presumably be so met as they mature."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Washington officials positive; </b>“foresaw the action as probably having a salutary effect on British finances and trade after the first shock of the announcement had passed,” while not attempting “to minimize the momentous character of the step.” <b>More intriguingly, </b>officials saw the British action bringing a solution of the international debt problem nearer, since it clearly demonstrated the interdependence of financial conditions in different countries; while the British budget crisis and “recent naval troubles” contributed to the crisis, the main cause was London's inability to withdraw short-term loans from Germany after the crisis there; this in turn caused nervousness and capital flight from London. Therefore, the British situation indicates the need to overcome “political opinions in France and the US” and reach a “final settlement of the problem of reparations and inter-govt. debt.” <b>US officials knew </b>some “drastic action” would be needed at least 48 hours before the British announcement, but decided against the risky and uncertain alternative of “coming to British support in a large way, such as by underwriting her foreign obligations.” <b>Having decided </b>the situation would be handled by British action, US o<span style="">fficials then “</span>put up to bankers in NY the working out of means to cushion the effect here,” continuing meetings with them until late Sunday.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>J.P. Morgan, </b>"smiling and smoking a pipe," issued statement calling British action "a hopeful and not a discouraging event, and one which brings the great work of the government much nearer to completion."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Bank of France Gov. </b>Moret says "France has no reason to become panic stricken. Her money is solid and her gold and dollar credits in NY render the franc absolutely unattackable." Points out recent French credits to England are repayable in francs. <b>French bankers </b>refuted official British statement charging major withdrawals of foreign capital from London, insisting this was true in June-July, but that recent withdrawals were mostly British.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>There was some confusion </b>on whether Britain would receive additional aid from the US and France. French reports stated that additional credits would be extended, but NY bankers said this was premature. <b>Informed sources </b>said French PM Laval offered Britain a new $156M credit on Friday when Chancellor Snowden called him and reported the gravity of the situation. However, Snowden declined temporarily, wishing for a larger credit with US participation.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Cotton and wheat </b>prices rose sharply in Liverpool; some believe British decision to suspend gold standard will induce consumers to buy in anticipation of higher prices; London rubber and metal markets also advanced.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Canadian PM </b>Bennett announced Canadian govt. proposed to maintain gold standard. <b>Canada will </b>ship $500,000 in gold to NY; current reserves are $70M, or 52.4% of notes in circulation (vs. 33.2% in Sept. 1929). <b>Sir H. Holt, </b>Bank of Canada pres., said Canada shouldn't be affected adversely by British action; Sir C. Gordon, Bank of Montreal pres., said he didn't expect any drastic consequences for Canada; T. MacAuley, Sun Life of Canada pres., said immediate effect might be disturbing but long-range one will be good.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Japanese financial </b>leaders say effect of British financial crisis on Japan will be slight since she has almost no short-term credits outstanding abroad, though US reaction to the situation may have indirect effect.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Effect of sterling crisis </b>on German economy “doubtless will be great,” but immediate danger to the mark isn't anticipated since current reserves and the existing agreement to maintain short-term loans should suffice for defense of the currency. “All authoritative circles have vigorously rejected the idea that Germany should abolish the present relations between the mark and gold.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Argentina shipped </b>another $5M in gold to the US yesterday, making a total of $25M shipped to help pay $50M in notes maturing Oct. 1.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#ff6633;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>NY banking scuttlebutt on the British crisis</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NY bankers </b>“view the situation calmly”; note suspension of gold payments is not unprecedented in emergencies, and are apparently unanimous that “this was the wisest course for England under the circumstances.” At the same time, “none seeks to minimize the far-reaching adjustment that inevitably must follow in international trade and credit.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NY bankers </b>“see silver lining” in British action, particularly as regards position of NY banks; see “a tremendous opportunity for NY in financial leadership” as the world will now “look to America as the principal safe repository for banking funds and investments.” Since NY “is now the principal financial center on a gold basis, there is no reason to anticipate that foreigners will dump securities on this market. On the contrary, the present situation should now invite buying in American securities from all over the world.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NY banking </b>position seen as strong; banks have protected themselves over the past few weeks by withdrawing most balances from London and protecting the rest by selling forward sterling, so stand to lose very little by depreciation of sterling; situation is therefore different from recent German crisis when banks were unable to get out of short-term loans there. Paris banks, by contrast, are believed to still have large amounts in London. <b>NY banks also </b>have over $100M of “surplus reserves” with the Fed. Reserve, which is enough to expand loans and deposits b $1B; “such funds could be used, if necessary, to keep financial markets orderly.” “<b>No doubt is felt </b>as to England” fulfilling its obligations in gold in the US, including the recent US credits, which are payable in dollars.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NY bankers are </b>"strongly opposed" to closing of the NYSE "under any circumstances"; believe extensive decline in securities over past 2 years has made "technical position of collateral underlying loans very strong"; with brokers' loans down to record low of $1.3B, "the NY banks can safely undertake to take care of the Stock Exchange situation."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>"Bankers in a position </b>to know declared that no banking pool to support stocks had been formed." However, before the market open officials of leading banks assured the NYSE they "were inclined to be lenient" on calling margin loans.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Possible inability </b>of England to keep supporting sterling "has been hanging over the market for some time, causing general nervousness" worldwide.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>England has "temporarily </b>exhausted her liquid resources available for support of sterling" due to heavy withdrawals of foreign funds, estimated at 200M sterling since mid-July. It's believed England has virtually used up both the $250M and $400M US-French credits in buying spot and future sterling for support operations.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Assorted historical st<span style="color:#ff6633;">uff</span></b><span style="color:#ff6633;"><span style="color:#ff6633;">:</span></span></i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Pres. Hoover </b>addressed American Legion convention: "The world is passing through a great depression fraught with grueling daily emergencies alike to men and to governments." Attributes current gravity of depression to European situation, which in turn was caused by dislocations due to the war. "Our economic strength is such that we would have recovered long since but for these forces from abroad. Recovery of the world now rests ... in no small degree" upon the US. Warns the US govt. can't sustain additional spending without "grave risks"; asks veterans to defer demands. Says taxation of rich no solution; even if "taxed to the point of diminishing returns ... the deficit ... would not be covered." Accepts offer of Legion to help with relief for this winter, but asks for a "greater service" in maintaining stability of the US govt. by preventing "additional burdens on the government from any quarter whatsoever." Reception generally favorable, though shout of "we want beer" broke out as Hoover turned to leave, spreading "throughout the hall in a tremendous roar. ... Mr. Hoover ... appeared to take no notice of the beer cry."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>A number of </b>legislators are expected to try to enact export subsidy plans when the next Congress meets; possible plans include the "equalization fee" and the "export debenture." However, little possibility is seen of the proposals becoming law, as the Administration is firmly opposed to "measures which are intended to force products onto world markets already depressed."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>War Dept. says </b>will seek no increase in any part of the army, in line with Pres. Hoover's austerity policy.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Australian govt. </b>debt as of June 30, 1931 was $8.041B (total Commonwealth and state) [note: a rather staggering number, considering the US, with a population about 20 times larger, had total Federal, state and local govt. debt of about $30B].</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>State Dept. says </b>friendly toward any feasible plan to limit armament; ordered Hugh Wilson to participate in League of Nations discussion of proposal to halt all arms construction until disarmament conference.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>State Dept. </b>reports Japan-China difficulties have become more serious in past couple of days; widespread Japanese military movements now confirmed; Japanese army has seized strategic locations. "On the other hand, it has been confirmed through diplomatic channels that the Japanese cabinet has moved to stop hostilities." <b>Chinese govt. </b>at Nanking to lodge protest with League of Nations.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>US Consulate </b>in Mexico says many US workers and technicians are leaving Mexico for the US due to new Mexican labor code requiring 90% of all employees to be Mexican citizens.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Census of India </b>reports population of 350.4M, of which Hindus number 238.3M and Muslims 77.7M [note: I assume this includes Pakistan].</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>US employees </b>accustomed to bathing in the fresh waters of Gatun Lake, part of the Panama Canal, got a scare recently when a man-eating shark was caught in the lake. Lock operators speculated the sharks could have entered the lake from either ocean by closely following behind ships.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;">[Note: Sheer Genius Dept.] <b>NY City's fire </b>commission is considering abolishing sirens on all fire engines at night to avoid disturbing the sleep of thousands. As a substitute, the engines would throw powerful beams of lights on the streets ahead to stop traffic.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>While London may </b>be figuratively darkened by "lowering clouds of anxiety," the city at night is now in a "blaze of glory," thanks to the International Illumination Congress now taking place there; British electric cos. are staging the "greatest lighting exhibition ever. ... The joyous reaction of the British public ...is a cogent argument for the increased use of electricity for other than strictly utilitarian purposes." London may repeat the history of NY's Great White Way, where competitive movie advertising "has made that crooked street blaze anew" and created an "orgy of light."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Market commentary</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Market wrap:</b> Stock market opened under "bewildered" conditions, with talk of suspending trading as in London and Berlin. "Drastic liquidation" broke out at the open, with 1.1M shares traded in first half-hour and many new lows, though conditions remained "fairly orderly" (total volume for the day was 4.4M). However, impressive support developed after the initial selling had been absorbed; brisk rallying followed, with sharp advances off the lows in leading shares; heavy short covering by leading bears including Bernard E. Smith reported; improvement was largely maintained to the close, despite some late setbacks. <b>All classes of bonds </b>fell after England's abandonment of the gold standard and the closing of many foreign stock markets. Foreign bonds fell sharply, particularly those payable in gold in the US. "The depreciation of fixed-income ... securities from countries and corporations in all parts of the world was enormous." Domestic rail, industrial and utility bonds averages hit new yearly lows, with the Dow average of 40 corp. bonds down 1.27 to 88.80, although there was some rallying in late trading. "Scared selling carried the best quality issues down with the weak," though US govts. resisted the general decline and closed with only small losses. <b>Grains hit new lows, </b>with wheat futures plunging over 3 1/2 cents; however, later rally recovered over 2 cents of the loss. Cotton fell to new lows in spite of rally in British cotton market. Copper buying small, price still at 7 cents/pound. Cocoa plunged to new record low. However, silver was strong, rising 1 1/2 cents to 29 1/4 [note: may be due to anticipation of Britain adopting monetary silver].</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Dow industrial </b>average closed at a new bear market low; there were no new yearly highs and 482 new lows.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Stocks have </b>recently "entered the fifth period of convulsive liquidation" since Sept. 1929. The dramatic swings in the Dow so far include: decline from 381 to 198 (Sept. - Nov. 1929); rally to 294 (Apr. 1930); decline to 211 (June 1930); rally to 245 (Sept. 1930); decline to 157 (Dec. 1930); rally to 194 (Feb. 1931); decline to 121 (June 1931); rally to 156 (June 1931); decline to 111 (Sept. 1931). Declines through 1930 attributed mainly to domestic business downturn; this was supplemented by the numerous bank failures in Dec. 1930, and most recently by the British difficulties. <b>However, given </b>that "the news from London over the week-end constituted one of the severest shocks which the market has been called upon to withstand during this epochal readjustment," resistance shown by leading shares indicated "the world-wide economic unsettlement had been largely discounted by the decline in stock values over the last two years, which has been by far the most sweeping on record. With the worst phases of the British situation is now public ... strong groundwork has been prepared marketwise for an eventual upturn in anticipation of international improvement."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>"Brokerage fraternity </b>confused" after recent "rapid march of events in the finances of the world ... but all hands agree that there can hardly be any more bad news that can match with what the market has had to stand in past months. Wall Street believes that the big inflation in production not only has been eliminated, but that in many instances there are actual possibilities of the pendulum swinging too far in the other direction."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Wall Street </b>opinion on the British action seemed to improve through the day, as reaction in Britain was positive and opinion was expressed that the action would end the recent severe strain on US financial markets from efforts to protect sterling.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Margin calls </b>have reportedly been relatively light in the past couple of weeks in spite of the severe market decline.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Heavy foreign </b>selling of US securities has gone on for some time; selling from Britain and Holland has been "continuous, particularly in the bond market."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>British capital </b>has been "jolted severely by its worldwide investments," particularly in S. American govt., rail and industrial issues; these have been sinking steadily.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>While AT&T </b>may not cover its dividend in Q3, "undoubtedly, the management ... would not consider any revision until it had been demonstrated clearly that it ... would not be earned by a fair margin for some time."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Former Sec. of State </b>Kellogg returns from abroad; says "we are certainly not going to correct this depression by legislation"; calls for control of spending at all levels of govt.; blames depression on "heavy burden of taxation, undue inflation and the high price of commodities."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>H. Doherty, </b>Cities Services pres., says oil business could have ridden out the economic storm easily if sane methods of production had been followed; repeated earlier recommendation for unit (cooperative) development of each oil area.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>M. Holland</b> of the Nat'l. Research Council urges more extensive use of scientific research by industrial cos. as means of hastening business recovery.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>E. Loomis, </b>Lehigh Valley Rwy. pres., criticizes GE pres. Swope's proposal for stabilization of industry by govt. supervision as too drastic; asks "why Mr. Swope should urge that we engage in a frankly socialist experiment at a time when the state to which England has been brought by a similar indulgence in paternalism, is so prominently in the public eye." Says while US business men are hard-pressed by the depression, he cannot believe they are ready to give up and admit they cannot meet the situation.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Economic news and individual company reports</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Editorial praising </b>"courageous" decision by the NYSE to remain open; this "was right, as the results already abundantly prove. ... Fortunately, the Exchange governors held to their fixed principal that the Exchange is the place for men to express their minds freely and publicly ... The result, so far as Monday's transactions register it, is a judgment from American financiers and investors that the British departure from a complete gold standard is something to which the world can adjust itself with comparative ease." <b>NYSE pres. Whitney </b>warned that in view of the "grave ... emergency created by the suspension of gold payments in England, the governing committee resolved that short selling" at this time would "tend to bring ... demoralization in which prices would not fairly reflect market values," and therefore would violate the NYSE constitution. Announced NYSE would "require all members to report in detail daily, beginning today, all short positions carried and for whose account." <b>Following the </b>NYSE warning against short selling, many lenders of stock [to short sellers] began calling in the certificates, leading to "a squeezing of shorts" that sent some issues "skyrocketing," particularly among the rails. However, "it soon became evident that this calling of stock loans did not meet with the approval of officials and the practice was promptly terminated."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>M. Steuer, </b>counsel for Bank of US depositors, asked Gov. Roosevelt's approval to sue NY State to recover depositors' losses on grounds of misfeasance on part of Banking Supt. Broderick in not closing the bank in June 1930. <b>Attorney for </b>Bank of US stockholders urges Broderick to delay action assessing stockholders for depositors' losses, alleging fraud in stock sales to “small trade people.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Bank of Pittsburgh, N.A. </b>closed; deposits $47M. Highland Nat'l. Bank closed; deposits $3.9M. Franklin Savings & Trust closed; deposits $2.8M. Capital Trust of Schenectady closed; deposits $1.8M. NYSE house of Schuyler, Chadwick & Burnham suspended for insolvency.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Nat'l. Surety Co. </b>reports embezzlements by employees up over 17% in past 18 months.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Texas Railroad </b>Commission's new order expected to reduce East Texas oil production from recent peak of 432,150 barrels/day to about 360,000; in near future, Commission may further reduce allowable production per well and limit new drilling, which has continued unabated. East Texas oil now at 68 cents/barrel.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>ICC now hearing </b>final arguments on 15% rail freight rate increase; decision expected around third week of Oct.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Editorial approvingly </b>noting attacks by Maryland Gov. Ritchie [a Democrat] against “govt. ownership-operation theories” for public utilities advanced by Sen. Norris and Gov. Pinchot [both Progressive Republicans]. “Here at least there is no Democratic-Progressive alliance.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Cuban Treasury Sec. </b>assures Cuba will meet all obligations in spite of crisis.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Jersey City </b>postponed sale of $4.4M in bonds scheduled for today "due to unsettled conditions in securities markets."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Quebec finances </b>highly satisfactory; net funded debt in 1930 was $54.0M, up only 9.6% from 1921; has maintained an annual surplus of ordinary revenues over ordinary expenditures for the past 33 years.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NYSE seat </b>sold for $168,000, down $17,000 from previous sale and lowest price since 1926.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Companies reporting decent earnings:</b> Kansas City Power & Light, Montreal Light Heat & Power.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Jokes</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;">"So your husband tried to get a government post? What is he doing now?" "Nothing. He got the post."</span></span></p>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-77178529618043377412010-10-02T17:16:00.010-10:002010-10-03T10:28:40.113-10:00Company Case Study 1<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgu6nQSyD9qR1JDQRKav3TVDOqxeufAskSLuCwwztUoNOEy_FIjnJdN4JRJPaOH7QOYV-I0Qr2D7al4ZKzwtg41NFIgb6HHkFL13aQHyzOTzdLhcZ6U-SuSynEE7YJDs3mkjyPcvKkPG9Z-/s1600/kiss+me+gum.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 349px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgu6nQSyD9qR1JDQRKav3TVDOqxeufAskSLuCwwztUoNOEy_FIjnJdN4JRJPaOH7QOYV-I0Qr2D7al4ZKzwtg41NFIgb6HHkFL13aQHyzOTzdLhcZ6U-SuSynEE7YJDs3mkjyPcvKkPG9Z-/s400/kiss+me+gum.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5523657562584183874" border="0" /></a><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">(Hopefully the first of a regular feature.)</span> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Important note: None of this is intended as investment advice - please do your own due diligence and make your own decisions on all investment matters!</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">As a sometime investor, one thing of interest to me in doing this blog is discovering how different companies performed through the Depression. I don't believe the results are directly transferrable to today for a number of reasons, but I still think this gives some information that can usefully be applied to investing now.</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Today I'll be covering a company in what I'd call the small luxuries sector - American Chicle, which made chewing gum (brands included Kis-Me, Beeman's, Adams and Chiclets; <i>(deep inhale)</i> later acquired by Warner-Lambert in 1962, which in turn was acquired by Pfizer in 2000, which then sold its candy brands to Cadbury in 2003, which was in turn acquired by Kraft in 2010 <i>(whew)</i>).</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Getting straight to the nitty-gritty numbers:<br /><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;">1928 earnings $4.15/share<br /><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;">1929 stock price range 27 - 81 5/8; dividend $2.25/share (including extra)<br /><i> - 15% “stock dividend” in Sept. 1929 (equivalent to a 1.15 to 1 stock split)</i></span><br />1929 earnings $4.22/share<br /><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;">1930 stock price range 35 - 51 1/2; dividend $3/share (including extras)</span><br />1930 earnings $4.42/share<span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><br />1931 stock price range 30 1/4 - 48 5/8; dividend $3/share (including extras)</span><br />1931 earnings $4.18/share<span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><br />1932 stock price range 18 - 38; dividend $3/share (including extras)</span><br />1932 earnings $3.60/share<span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><br />1933 stock price range 34 - 51 1/4; dividend $3/share (including extras)</span><br />1933 earnings $3.62/share<span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><br />1934 stock price range 46 1/4 - 70 5/8; dividend $3.50/share (including extra)</span><br />Earnings recovered rather explosively to $4.51/share in 1934 and $5.94/share in 1935.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">All in all, an extremely creditable earnings performance - I haven't been through too many of these cases yet, but I'd venture to guess it's in the top few percent of companies as far as maintaining earnings during those years (while earnings finally slipped in 1931-32, if we take into account the substantial price deflation in this period, along with the 15% stock dividend in 1929, I think 1932 earnings remained substantially above the 1928 level).</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">At first look,</span> this performance is a bit surprising - you'd expect people in a serious depression to concentrate spending on the absolute essentials, and as far as I know no one has ever died from a lack of chewing gum (or even suffered severe distress). It appears that, while people may cut out the big discretionary items in a depression, they might maintain the small comforts; in fact, they might even tend to use more of them.</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">It's also a little surprising that people stuck with name brand gum, which presumably charged a price premium - the explanation may lie in an observation <a href="http://ycombinator.com/munger.html">Charlie Munger once made</a> about another big gum maker:<br />“I may see Wrigley chewing gum alongside Glotz's chewing gum. Well, I know that Wrigley is a satisfactory product, whereas I don't know anything about Glotz's. So if one is 40 cents and the other is 30 cents, am I going to take something I don't know and put it in my mouth—which is a pretty personal place, after all—for a lousy dime?”</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Another interesting thing to note is the two extremes hit by the stock price during the period covered above. First there was the eye-opening runup to over 81 during the 1929 euphoria; this brought the price-earnings multiple close to the “nosebleed” territory of 20. Second, there's the amazing drop in 1932, when the yearly low was 18. This brought the price-earnings multiple well below 5, and with an annual dividend of $3 including extras, the dividend yield obtainable at the 1932 low was 16.7% (gadzooks!) - all this for a company that had maintained earnings at close to record levels throughout the Depression (lest you think this can be explained by an unexpected collapse in earnings in mid-1932, the quarterly earnings per share that year were $.89, $1.05, $.90 and $.75; so the dividend continued to be earned through 1932 and was probably not in serious doubt at the time the low was hit in June; in my opinion, the explanation for the drop is much more likely to be found in the general sh*t-hitting-the-fan situation at the time).</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Aside from these two interludes, the stock price held reasonably steady through the extremely severe economic downturn of 1929-33, more or less reflecting the steady earnings at a multiple of between about 9 and 12. The sweeping conclusions I draw from this sample of one (your mileage may vary):</span></p> <ul><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">If, through careful analysis or sheer dumb luck, you find a company that can maintain or grow its earnings through a downturn, and buy the stock, it seems that you might <b>most of the time </b>be rewarded by a stock price that reflects that performance.</span></p> </li></ul> <ul><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">That said, if you simply close your eyes and buy regardless of valuation on the theory that you should just buy good companies without trying to time the market, you may be vulnerable to painful losses - note what happened if you bought at the 1929 peak. What's a reasonable valuation is of course a tricky question, but working from this example and based on my belief that, in spite of all the serious issues and government blundering currently, things probably won't get as bad as in the 1930's, I'm going to go with around 10 to 12 times earnings as a workable starting point.</span></p> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">While the stock price may <b>usually</b> reflect a good earnings performance, there may come a time when earnings seem almost irrelevant to the market; this might also be a time when the survival of the whole system seems in doubt. At this time, as in mid-1932, stock prices may drop to places you never thought possible. This may seriously challenge your stomach even if you managed to pick companies with stable earnings and buy them at reasonable prices. Or, looked at more positively, if by some miracle you have some investable cash left at that point and are able to act decisively, you could wind up making some very nice returns ...</span></p> </li></ul>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-61282743434811620702010-09-30T18:35:00.002-10:002010-09-30T18:37:06.822-10:00Monday, September 21, 1931: Dow 111.74 -3.34 (2.9%)<span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Assorted historical stuff</b>:</i></span></span></span> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Editorial:</b> While Americans are confident in men like W. Gifford and O. Young as the leaders of unemployment relief, “it is devoutly to be hoped that soon they will be able to speak out upon their plans in more easily understandable terms than they have yet used. ... to the skeptical, ... frequent use of overwhelming verbiage will present too tempting an opportunity to declare that the President's Organization expects to feed the hungry this winter with mouth-filling phrases.” While we are convinced Mr. Young has a solid basis for his statement that “there will be no suffering,” failure to candidly inform the public may “incalculably delay and hinder” the organization's task of relief. “The season for grandiose pronunciamentoes, accompanied by group pictures on the White House lawn, is about over.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">“<span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><b>Sentiment in Toledo </b>is better than at any time since the bank failures.” It's reported that least one of the closed banks may reopen reasonably soon. “But the city is not without its humorous incidents. On a big sign in front of a restaurant on Huron Street, this writer noted the following: 'For God's Sake Eat Here or We'll Both Starve.'” <b>Plan being considered </b>in Kansas City to distribute 10,000 - 25,000 free loaves of bread daily; flour to be donated by mills and grain cos.</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;">[Note: Strangely Unfamiliar Dept.] <b>Sen. Reed </b>(R, Pa.) advocates “very heavy” inheritance tax to allow cutting other taxes; says “a man should not be allowed to leave his son and other ablebodied relatives complete immunity from work.” <b>NY Gov. Roosevelt </b>and state Republican leaders reach compromise on unemployment relief measure.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>US Atty. Gen. </b>Mitchell charges states are abdicating some of their proper functions and asking Federal govt. to assume them.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Washington report: </b>American Legion convention opening today in Detroit will be watched closely for its attitude on further veterans' payments. A campaign for full payment of service certificates has been waged since the last Congress passed the 50% loan program. Total face value of certificates is $3.565B, but $843M was loaned on the 50% program; together with earlier loans and payouts, this leaves a total of about $2.250B that would have to be paid out now to redeem all the outstanding bonus certificates. Administration is strongly opposed to full payment, as are some more conservative elements in veterans' organizations. <b>Current “cry of </b>cheap money” is not unexpected by Washingron officials, though it's interesting that “compared with the cheap money protagonists of the last century, even the most radical of the present day appear as conservative economists.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>1931 was an </b>unusually active year for state legislatures, with 44 of 48 meeting in regular session. However, barring special sessions, the “legislative stages ... now will be dark” in all but 9 states for the next two years.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><b>Fighting reported </b>between Japanese and Chinese soldiers in Mukden, Manchuria. However, Washington believes the main issue is protection by Japan of its economic interests in Manchuria (total Japanese investment there estimated at $1B); “the Sino-Japanese dispute in Manchuria does not include a quarrel over sovereignty. Japan recognizes China's ownership of the province.” <b>Sec. of State </b>Stimson says State Dept. carefully following news, but fighting thus far doesn't appear to violate Kellogg pact [prohibited use of war except in self-defence; signed by US, Japan, Britain, France, Germany, etc.] although “the occasion may lead to something calling for invocation of the Kellogg pact.”</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>British House </b>of Commons approves 10% cut in dole after sharp attacks from Labor. “<b>Semi-mutiny”</b> by the British Navy demonstrates the current high level of opposition to the govt.'s budget cuts.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Austrian austerity </b><span style="">program, “outlined ... preliminary to granting international credits,” will involve severe govt. spending cuts. Sir A. Salter of the League of Nations will probably be appointed “temporary supervisor of Austria's finances.”</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Editorial by </b>T. Woodlock arguing that German reparations, in spite of amounting to only $7.50 annually per capita, are too heavy due to other factors including additional debt payments, current inability to borrow, and tariffs; “no doubt $7.50 ... is a little sum in itself, but a little, if too much to carry, is too much!”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Washington, DC </b>will soon have the world's largest gas station to handle the traffic along Constitution Ave.; it will be 335 feet long and stand 6 stories high.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Farmers and merchants </b>of Lewis County, Wash. dined on a huge omelet fried in an 8-foot skillet at their annual picnic. It required 10,000 eggs; to grease the skillet, the chef fastened large slabs of bacon to his feet and skated about.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Editorial </b>calling for a moratorium on “steamer deck” interviews by returning “bankers, statesmen and other notorieties in which they tell us 'what I saw in Europe.' The trouble with all these is that those returning travelers who might have something interesting and important to say never say anything interesting or important, and those who have nothing interesting or important to say, say a great deal.” [Note: this is apparently a response to the statement by former Ambassador J. Gerard reported on Sept. 18, charging that Germany was “making money out of bankruptcy.”]</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Market commentary</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Market wrap:</b> Stocks suffered “steady liquidation” in the Saturday session on unusually heavy volume; however, “the decline was orderly,” probably due to low level of brokers' loans. Heavy selling in the final half-hour produced many new lows; “the kind of stocks under liquidation indicated that shares were coming out of boxes.” <b>US govt. bonds </b><span style="">steady while all other classes fell sharply, with many new record lows. Rail group again “disturbed” as all grades declined. High-grade utilities succumbed to the downtrend but showed smaller losses. Convertibles fell along with stocks. Foreign govts. came under heavy liquidation; British 5 1/2's, 1937 dropped 8 1/4 points to 93; German Int'l 5 1/2's fell 2 points to 38; French and Italian issues slightly lower; S. American issues pressured with many new lows. </span><b>Grains sharply </b>lower in spite of run of bullish crop news, including unprecedented drought in Southwest. Cotton fell to new season lows, hitting lowest levels in 32 years. </span><span style="">Egg and potato futures hit new lows.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Dow industrial </b>average closed at a new bear market low; there were no new yearly highs and 320 new lows. Dow industrials are at the lowest level since 1925, and the rails the lowest since 1897. US Steel hit a new post-1921 low. Volume of 2.438M shares was highest for a 2-hour session since Apr. 1930.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Considerable forced </b>liquidation reported in the past week by individuals to pay off called loans.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Recent weakness </b>in bank stocks has led to rumors of dividend cuts, though “leading banking quarters” say most important banks are still earning their dividends. <b>Insurance stocks </b>fell sharply Friday and Saturday. <b>After holding firm </b>for a long time, Woolworth succumbed to liquidation last week; no change in co. affairs to account for the decline.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>M. Holland </b>of the Nat'l. Research Council urged industrial cos. to more extensively use scientific research in order to stimulate industry and hasten recovery.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Opportunity seen </b>in good bonds due to “hysteria of the moment resulting from the workings of mass psychology.” Bonds also expected to benefit from relaxation of rules requiring nat'l banks to write off all bond losses, which is expected to check one of the main sources of recent liquidation.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Nervousness over British </b>situation came to the fore; as one banker put it, it's no longer a question of companies but countries, “and the situation must be one for govts. rather than individuals to take in hand.” <b>Fears expressed </b>by British leaders on stability of sterling have caused concern. <b>Prospect of new </b>general election has dispelled most of good feeling from formation of coalition govt.; uncertainty has caused heavy withdrawal of capital from England; this in turn has caused considerable nervousness that the recent $400M US-French credit may be exhausted in supporting sterling. “<b>However, the combined </b>financial intelligence of Great Britain, as well as of the US and France, is currently devoting its energy toward a solution of the English difficulties.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Week in review</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Stocks worked </b>steadily lower, picking up momentum later in the week; heavy foreign selling of US shares reported. Friday saw most severe market breaks since early June. Dow industrials fell to a new bear market low, confirming earlier signal by the rails “that another phase of the primary downward” bear market movement had started; utilities also hit a new bear market low. Lowest levels in many years hit by majors including Steel, GE, and GM.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Bond market</b> “disturbed.” Railroad bonds sagged in both the high and second-grade departments. Convertibles sharply lower along with stocks. Industrial bonds soft, though oils held most of recent gains. Public utilities declined, varying from modest losses in AT&T and NY Edison to sharp reaction in Utilities Light & Power. Foreign bonds reactionary, with liquidation turning “acute” toward end of week; drops of 5 - 10 points frequent; record lows hit in German issues; most S. American bonds suffered severe declines. Among the few bright spots were a firm tone in US govts. and sale of NY State bonds at record low yield.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Stock decline </b>attributed mainly to fears of another financial crisis in Britain, particularly after some British leaders expressed nervousness regarding stability of sterling. <b>Domestic factors </b>also were unfavorable, including absence of seasonal business improvement and further dividend cuts. <b>Decline of trade </b>was dramatically demonstrated by August US figures showing first deficit since May 1929; this was attributed to curtailment of foreign buying in US markets by credit difficulties abroad. <b>Steel output </b>recovered part of previous week's loss as rail and pipeline buying improved. However, automotive demand continues to disappoint, showing no signs of expected renewal, and rail inquiries are well below the normal seasonal increase. “More rumblings” heard of pending steel wage cuts; it's believed this question will be tackled before end of the month, and it's “generally agreed that a cut of 10% to 15% must take place.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Sterling fell </b>on Friday and Saturday, with forward months particularly weak; decline attributed to nervousness over possible return to power by Labor, flight of both foreign and domestic capital, and further gold losses by Bank of England. Holland took several large gold shipments from England, as well as a shipment of $550,000 from NY Friday, the first to Amsterdam in several years.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Stocks in Paris </b>experienced a bad week, “requiring banking support Thursday and Friday to prevent panicky conditions.” <b>Stocks in </b>Berlin suffered considerable losses on the week, though turnover was light.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Money markets </b>dull; Fed. Reserve statements showed small decline in currency circulation, possibly marking “an end, at least for the time being, of the spectacular hoarding of currency that has marked the past weeks.” Monetary gold holdings rose to a new record high of $5.015B. Acceptances outstanding fell during August to the lowest level in 3 years.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Grain prices </b>showed better resistance, with wheat moving slightly up and corn fairly steady. However, cotton sagged steadily to new 32-year lows even as “various proposals to remedy the cotton situation were being considered”; Oct. cotton fell below 6 1/2 cents. Copper fell to new record low of 7 cents/pound, 2 cents below the record previous to 1931.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><b>Economic news and individual company reports</b>:</span></i></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>British Treasury </b>reportedly withdrew its support peg in sterling Saturday after several weeks of maintaining it. It was also reported that the recent US credit was substantially drawn on that day, after two previous drawings of 20%. <b>Speculators rushing </b>to short sterling found NY banks refusing to accept their orders. However, sterling still broke sharply to $4.84 1/2 before support from NY banks rallied it to $4.85 at the close. Forward quotes are at discounts as high as 3 cents/month, with 90-day delivery at $4.75. <b>Bank of England</b> shipped 907,543 sterling in gold bars to Holland. <b>Support for sterling</b> in Paris has caused heavy selling of francs in markets where sterling isn't being supported; francs weaker against other European currencies and gold exports from France possible.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>French Fin. Min.</b> Flandin blasts speculators against sterling; “it is necessary for the world to understand how detrimental ... this assault is”; warns of possible “universal disaster” if British lose confidence; says French Treasury “already has intervened and will not hesitate to intervene again. It is in our interest that the pound remain as international money par excellence, guaranteed against all sorts of fluctuations.” Notes that speculators can short sterling without risk since losses are limited by gold parity. <b>J.M. Keynes</b> criticizes British govt.'s economic policy; says only 3 lines of policy now worthwhile. First and mildest is restriction of imports; second is “getting off gold parity without allowing the slide to go too far”; third is int'l. conference to give “gold standard countries their last opportunity, one that means business of a most definite kind, quite different from any conference ever held hitherto.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Commerce Dept. </b>reports European unemployment, after reaching record levels over the winter, had a disappointing spring recovery, leaving the June level at a record for that time of year. Even higher unemployment is expected this winter.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Treasury deficit </b><span style="">for July 1 - Sept. 17 was $349.2M vs. $116.2M in 1930; income tax receipts were $243.7M vs. $335.3M; however, customs receipts rose to $92.0M vs. $77.2M.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Texas Railroad </b>Commission cuts allowable production per well in East Texas to 185 barrels/day; this is expected to cut the area's production to about 370,000 barrels/day from 425,000. Oil prices strengthened, with almost all major buyers paying 68 cents/barrel. <b>Radical actions </b>in form of martial law shutdown in East Texas and Oklahoma oil fields were unprecedented. However, they are believed to have improved oil company results for the third quarter from the “demoralized” condition prevailing previously, with “production running riot in East Texas” and midcontinent oil prices falling as low as 10 - 22 cents/barrel.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>BLS reports </b>employment in Aug. fell 0.3% from July; <span style="">wholesale commodity price index 70.2 in Aug., up from 70.0 in July but down from 84.0 in Aug. 1930; index of retail food prices in 51 cities 119.7 on Aug. 15 vs. 119.0 on July 15 and 143.7 on Aug. 15, 1930.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>ICC will hear </b>final oral arguments in 15% freight rate increase case today; decision likely in mid-October.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>French govt. </b>takes control of the French Line (France's leading shipper), increases annual subsidy to 30M francs from 4M.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Brazil says </b>will stop making interest payments on external debt pending negotiations with creditors.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>1931 Commerce </b>Yearbook reports 1930 output of manufacturing industries about 19% under the record set in 1929, 13% less than the 1925-29 average, but 43% over 1921; sharpest decline was in auto production.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Fisher's wholesale </b>commodity index rose 0.1 to 69.0, following three weeks of stability at postwar low of 68.9.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Ford Motor </b>Co. has started placing orders for car parts again; other cos. also getting under way. Dealer sentiment improved, though buyers are reportedly delaying due to interest in upcoming new models; this will be “of inestimable value in 1932 sales,” but “temporarily has created an unfortunate situation.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Movie</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style=""><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><i>The Mad Parade</i> - Paramount film, at the NY and Brooklyn Paramount Theatres. “Paramount's much-touted film about the women's side of war, with an all-female cast, has finally arrived”; concerns a group of nine women working at a canteen during the war. While it's “a novelty to see a group of women ... workers facing the horrors of war unaided by men,” who are only indirectly referred to in dialogue, the result is “far less dramatic than the war atmosphere” in which the film is set. Too much of the film is devoted to a bitter struggle between two of the women; both eventually meet death, one through a hand grenade thrown by her enemy and the other in a heroic mission to get relief for her comrades trapped on the battlefield. “When the film is not dragging along slowly between bursts of temperament and shells, it is offering panoramic pictures of the horrors of war, or presenting long-winded sentimental tirades.”</span></span></span></span></p>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-23456941433076812822010-09-27T16:51:00.002-10:002010-09-27T17:03:14.923-10:00The Hall of Forgotten Geniuses 1<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvAvvfdbmK5fevPA-TzL2Y5I5gp9guFQqFVONFVyjbROMrXc3CCU89mtfhyphenhyphenph0L8vZhx_kCxaAB76Epk015ld2zgiXOLfhGIWOmUAXI2g-23HeaBAQILI2BTqTuP4i9MGu1B5AWMTHNhnZ/s1600/hughes_howard_320x240.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvAvvfdbmK5fevPA-TzL2Y5I5gp9guFQqFVONFVyjbROMrXc3CCU89mtfhyphenhyphenph0L8vZhx_kCxaAB76Epk015ld2zgiXOLfhGIWOmUAXI2g-23HeaBAQILI2BTqTuP4i9MGu1B5AWMTHNhnZ/s320/hughes_howard_320x240.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5521791837348067730" border="0" /></a><br /><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">(Hopefully the first of a regular feature.)</span> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">One of my favorite things about doing this blog has been coming across the amazing performers and artists of the time, many of whom are more or less forgotten these days. In many cases, I've found that good footage is available on Youtube or other internet video sites. So, I'm going to try to put together a more organized collection presenting some of these Forgotten Geniuses for your rediscovery. Our first Forgotten Genius is (drumroll) ... Howard Hughes.</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Of course, Howard Hughes isn't exactly forgotten today, but I'd venture to guess that the vast majority of people know him mainly as a crazy billionaire. It's not as generally remembered that he was a great movie producer and director. One of his most remarkable efforts is the World War I aviation film <i>Hell's Angels</i>, which was released in Oct. 1930 after about three years of production at a cost of close to $4M (in 1930 dollars - the advertisements for the movie claim it's “The First Multi-Million Dollar Talking Film”, and some sources credit it as the highest-budget film until <i>Gone With the Wind</i>, though others say Fritz Lang's <i>Metropolis</i> was more costly).</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">In hindsight, it's tempting to say the production was an early indicator of Hughes' obsessive-compulsive tendencies. In any case, many factoids about the film's production are jaw-dropping even by today's squanderous Hollywood standards:</span></p> <ul><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Hughes shot 560 hours of film, so 99.64% of the film shot wound up on the cutting room floor - an off-the-charts ratio for a dramatic (non-documentary) movie, this set a record that probably still stands.</span></p> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">The initial silent version of the film was previewed in March of 1929. However, in the interim sound technology had come along and Hughes eventually decided to redo the whole thing as a talkie. This involved not only scrapping much of the already shot film but paying off and dismissing the original female lead (Greta Nissen) because her strong Norwegian accent made her implausible in the part; Hughes instead settled on a 19-year old Jean Harlow, in what's generally considered her “big break.” (Strangely, the film contains the only surviving color footage of Harlow).</span></p> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Hughes used about 90 planes, 130 pilots, and 20,000 extras on the film. He bought many authentic World War I fighter planes and hired World War pilots to fly in the aerial scenes. However, one of the scenes Hughes wanted to shoot was so dangerous that the pilots refused to do it, warning it would cause a crash. Hughes insisted on shooting the scene, wound up flying the plane himself, and did crash it as warned, though he escaped with only minor injuries. Unfortunately, three other pilots and a mechanic were not as lucky, losing their lives in three other accidents during the film's production.</span></p> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Hughes appears to have gone through a number of directors early in production (various sources mention Marshall Neilan, Luther Reed, and Edmund Goulding). He then decided to direct much of the film himself, though he used James Whale for the talking scenes. (This was Whale's directorial debut, though the film took so long to complete that Whale's second movie - <i>Journey's End -</i> was released first; Whale, of course, went on to direct <i>Frankenstein</i> and other classics).</span></p> </li></ul> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Curiously, I think it's the talking scenes in this movie that feel sort of awkward and stilted today (maybe partly due to the midstream change to sound). The aerial scenes, presumably directed by Hughes, still pack a wallop, and none more so than the beautiful and haunting sequence below in which a German Zeppelin tries to bomb London, and <span style="">then is </span>chased by British fighters.</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><iframe src="http://player.vimeo.com/video/10989337?byline=0&portrait=0&color=ed9b5c" width="600" frameborder="0" height="450"></iframe></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><a href="http://vimeo.com/10989337">Play "Hell's Angels Zeppelin scene" on Vimeo.</a></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Just in case you think I'm kidding about the talking scenes, here's a surprisingly racy one in which Jean Harlow works her charms on a hapless Ben Lyon:</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/qLXfEI3-iM0?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/qLXfEI3-iM0?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLXfEI3-iM0">Play "Hell's Angels clip" on Youtube.</a></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Here's a couple of fun clips from the stupendous movie premiere of <i>Hell's Angels</i> at Grauman's Chinese Theatre. In the first one, we see a parade of Hollywood luminaries on the red carpet with commentary from a slightly more masculine 1930 version of Joan Rivers. (When I compare the glamor of these stars with Lady Gaga or Colin Farrell ... it's enough to bring a tear to me eye ...)</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/sGbBWsYxhl0?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/sGbBWsYxhl0?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGbBWsYxhl0">Play "Hell's Angels premiere" on Youtube.</a></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">And in this one you get to hear a bit of what the stars were saying on the red carpet (including Dolores Del Rio and Buster Keaton), followed by the traditional guy-in-a-suit-reading-congratulatory-telegrams-the-morning-after.</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/P8-UneHJsV0?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/P8-UneHJsV0?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8-UneHJsV0">Play "Hell's Angels trailer" on Youtube.</a></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Finally, as one last bonus, the closing scene from one of Hughes' next productions, the original <i>Scarface </i><span style="font-style: normal;">starring Paul Muni</span>. It's not as gloriously over-the-top as the one in the 1980's Al Pacino “remake,” but it's close ...</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/CA0OYIuJ7cE?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/CA0OYIuJ7cE?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CA0OYIuJ7cE">Play "Scarface final scene" on Youtube.</a></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">(Note: These clips have a way of disappearing for one reason or another, so if you particularly like one I'd consider downloading it ...)</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Sources for the above, aside from the 1930 Wall Street Journal:</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">http://www.tcm.com/tcmdb/title.jsp?stid=77738&category=Notes</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hell%27s_Angels_(film)</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0020960/</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">http://www.biography.com/dead_famous/dead_episode_guide.jsp?episode=150016</span></p>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-7520437600570512222010-09-25T16:52:00.003-10:002010-09-25T18:23:57.852-10:00Saturday, September 19, 1931: Dow 115.08 -6.68 (5.5%)<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7xwX2ypvPztVleKSKSguBEDQ9zY1WMup_4NYWD-4zPnF1l9IWyU22bGc4x28vXm-_PtpY5pq54Q2DoWN_0kQoad07w7zWLSY8PU_KAZlPa4EQy9f_hG8mIFVHGIwTOTs8FpfTQeF48S4e/s1600/poe+endorsement.JPG"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7xwX2ypvPztVleKSKSguBEDQ9zY1WMup_4NYWD-4zPnF1l9IWyU22bGc4x28vXm-_PtpY5pq54Q2DoWN_0kQoad07w7zWLSY8PU_KAZlPa4EQy9f_hG8mIFVHGIwTOTs8FpfTQeF48S4e/s320/poe+endorsement.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5521073112538400594" border="0" /></a><br /><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Administrative note: </b><span style="">I had intended to maintain the day-by-day summary here until July of 1932 when (spoiler alert) the Dow industrials finally bottomed out at 41 and change. I still intend to continue the summaries until then, but due to heavy workload, I'm going to have to cut back to a more leisurely pace for a while - I'll only be able to post a summary every two or three days. I also hope to get to some other little projects that I've been meaning to tackle for a while - stay tuned ...</span></span></span><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Assorted historical stuff</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Interesting editorial </b>criticizing "rag money" proposal by one Dr. J. Commons, Univ. of Wisconsin economist. Commons proposes the Fed. Reserve issue "greenback, or fiat money" in order to restore the 1926 commodity price level. By his laughable reasoning, this would be sound since the Fed. Reserve would only inflate moderately and would have the power to deflate when things go too far. "In brief, we can take it and we can leave it alone. We can use it without abusing it. ... We have abundant strength of character (i.e., the Fed. Reserve system) to tell us when we have had enough ... When the right time comes we shall firmly refuse 'just one more drink' and go home in good order. ... Dr. Commons, of all men, should know his economic history; when was there ever an experiment in currency inflation that did not end with the patient in the gutter? When was there a case where the 'just one more' was refused? ... How 'old times' do come back, if one only lives long enough!"</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Owen D. Young and W. Gifford, </b>leaders of Pres. Hoover's unemployment relief organization, expressed confidence that local public and private funds would be adequate to combat distress of unemployment this winter. However, Young refused to rule out Federal funds and said the country could be assured that no one would suffer for want of food; this was interpreted to mean the Federal govt. would step in if necessary.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Rep. J. Byrnes</b> (D, Tenn.), ranking Democratic member of the House Appropriations Committee, suggests increase in surtaxes and rigid govt. economy to balance the budget.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NY State Republicans</b> pass own unemployment relief bill despite threat by Gov. Roosevelt to veto and call another extraordinary session of the Legislature.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Amer. Bar Assoc.</b> annual convention officially opposes Prohibition by vote of 13,779 to 6,340. <b>Finnish Interior Min. </b>predicts early end to Prohibition in Finland; admits impossibility of preventing smuggling. <b>Fleischmann Yeast</b> pleaded no contest to conspiracy to violate Prohibition laws, in govt.'s first test of responsibility of large corps. for providing supplies to makers of illegal alcohol; was fined $3,000. <b>W. Newton,</b> Pres. Hoover's secretary, admits asking Census Bureau for number of people employed in manufacture of beer in 1914, 1919, and 1929, but denies he sought the figures for Hoover.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>"Air pilots on </b>scheduled transport duty must always be in perfect physical condition. Their health is taken care of as carefully as that of the most valued racehorse. Few jobs are so confining and permit so little exercise," which is considered one of the essentials to keeping a pilot fit for emergencies. The Boeing flight surgeon believes golf is the best exercise for pilots' particular needs; pilots on the Boeing system almost inevitably stow a set of clubs before takeoff. </span></span> </p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>W. Fullen,</b> Transit Commission chair., says hopeful a plan for NY City transit unification will be ready for promulgation by the Commission before end of month. <b>N. Amster </b>says city has not abandoned unification plan, but, on contrary, is closer than ever to agreement with transit cos.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>The Smiths now </b>lead the Cohens in NY City's latest telephone directory, 1,916 to 1,636. However, if the Cohns, Smyths and Smythes are included, the Cohens retake first place as NY's leading family.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>European special</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>"Banking support" </b>entered the Paris stock exchange Friday for the second day in a row, producing a strong rally after new lows were hit in the first hour of trading. <b>Brussels suspended </b>put and call operations to "curb speculation."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Stock market </b>collapse in Amsterdam has accelerated gold movement there. <b>US exported </b>$550,000 in gold to Holland; first gold exported to Europe since Aug. 1930. <b>Banking situation</b> in Holland and Switzerland being watched.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>British situation</b> causing some concern. <b>Bank of England</b> lost about 1.750M sterling in gold to Holland; sterling weakened, while futures fell to a wide discount. <b>Bank of England </b>took steps to restrict withdrawal of small amounts of gold for “hoarding” by refusing to pay out sovereigns and restricting gold payment to bars (worth $8,000 each). <b>British general</b> election talk circulating; some fear Labor will make large gains among voters angered by govt. spending cuts. <b>British politicians </b>are demanding restrictive measures to prevent capital flight from London.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>J.H. Oliphant & Co. </b>attributes recent selling in "worldwide investment stocks" in the past two days to London; "minds of British investors are confused by their own specific troubles as well as by the American corporate situation." Many disturbing rumors circulating about measures British govt. might take on sterling, including borrowing private holdings of foreign securities, deflation of the pound, and adoption of monetary silver.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Possibility of abandoning </b>the gold standard has now become a topic of conversation in the London financial district, though it is “minimized in responsible quarters who realize that such a course of action would be a catastrophe.” However, a tariff on imports to restore trade balance is now seen as inevitable, since balancing the budget alone won't be enough to safeguard sterling.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Considerable agitation </b>in French commercial circles over possible British tariff on luxury items; England took half France's luxury exports in 1930, amounting to 3B francs. Lille district makes formal protest claiming possible ruin. Newspapers voice reprisal threats.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Agreement for extension </b>of short-term German credits finally signed between German bankers, Reichsbank, and bankers' committees from numerous other countries.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Apparent failure </b>of League of Nations to secure financial aid for Austria and Hungary has clouded outlook there.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Market commentary</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Market wrap:</b> Stocks had one of the weakest sessions in months; "frightened and necessitous liquidation" combined with renewed short-selling and uncovered stop-loss orders, sending shares progressively lower through the day; selling continued right up to the close. <b>US govts. the </b>sole firm spot in the bond market, as all other classes declined; heavy selling developed in late trading, and "prices fairly crumbled away". Foreign list unsettled by sharp break in German govts.; S. Americans again suffered heavy liquidation. Dow average of 40 domestic corp. bonds reached new yearly low at 90.51, down 0.44; lowest since Sept. 1924. <b>Cotton prices </b><span style="">again hit new season lows. However, </span>grain prices were relatively steady, showing a mix of small gains and moderate losses. Copper buying practically nil in spite of record-low price of 7 cents/pound, at which hardly any mines are profitable.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Dow industrial </b>average closed at a new bear market low; there were 2 new yearly highs and 232 new lows [note: as usual, the yearly highs were in preferreds].</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Conservative observers </b>continued to recommend the sidelines. <b>"Pessimistic views </b>were heard on all sides after the close" due to the new lows hit in leading shares.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Considerable disappointment </b>seen as various rumors of "some favorable development late Thursday" failed to be confirmed. <b>Market also </b>unsettled by foreign developments including break in sterling and in German bonds. <b>Leading insurance </b>stocks broke sharply, with volume much higher than in the past few months; Sun Life dropped 250 points to 650 bid, while most other leaders fell 5%-10%.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Over the past 3 months, </b>investment trusts [similar to mutual funds] “have experienced one of the dullest periods in their existence”; changes in portfolios limited.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Q3 earnings </b>estimates are generally being revised downward due to slow business in July and Aug., and little seasonal improvement so far in Sept. Uncertainty over earnings seen keeping many investors on sidelines until reports come out in several weeks.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>R. Masson,</b> Credit Lyonnais general dir., says US conditions depressed chiefly in comparison with abnormal 1929 boom; praises avoidance of starvation, disorders and public dole in spite of 6M unemployed.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>A. Coleman, </b>Asst. Postmaster Gen., says 15% increase in first and third class mail handled in larger cities forecasts return of prosperity. However, other postal officials disagree with Coleman and "this upturn has not yet appeared in postal figures."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Economic news and individual company reports</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>August a disappointing </b>month for chain stores and mail order houses; sales of 39 representative cos. down 6.15% in Aug. from a year earlier, vs. a 2.6% decline in July and a 2.2% decline in June. Business affected by banking troubles in certain sections, as well as prevalence of infantile paralysis. It's estimated the paralysis epidemic cost Woolworth $500,000 in August sales.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Texas Railroad </b>Commission has drafted order reducing allowed oil production per well in order to bring total output back below 400,000 barrels/day. However, order is being held up by protests from oil operators.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Weekly trade </b>reviews again divided. <b>Bradstreet's </b>reports unseasonably warm weather retarded trade throughout the country in past week. <b>However, Dun's</b> reports retail trade at current lower level of prices continues to enlarge as fall season advances; also reports adoption of five-day week in a number of large industries has substantially added to the number employed in various lines.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>W. Atterbury, </b>Pennsylvania RR pres., called upon company employees to join management in evolving plan for stabilization of rail employment and business.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Weekly banking </b>reports gave first indication that perhaps the worst of the recent "currency hoarding" has passed, as currency in circulation declined seasonally by $5M. However, best estimates are that about $1B more currency is now outstanding than warranted by the current volume of business. Increase in security loans to non-brokers would normally be encouraging (indicating buying by "strong hands") but may be due to banks demanding security collateral on what are really commercial loans.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>US cigarette output </b>showed marked decline in Aug., with total of 9.521B produced vs. 10.578B in Aug. 1930. However, loose tobacco and cigarette papers showed increases.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Sales of electric </b>washing machines in Aug. were up 8.5% over July and 6.5% over Aug. 1930.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>New bond </b>offerings continued more active; total for week ended Sept. 18 was $67.5M vs. $75.4M prev. week, $7.5M two weeks ago, and $80.9M a year ago.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>French Treasury </b>revenues in Aug. were 44M francs above estimates; first 5 months 200M above.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Company reports </b>since July 1: 217 companies reported higher earnings vs. 1930 and 676 lower; 1,060 dividends unchanged, 24 increased, 196 cut.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Companies reporting decent earnings:</b> British Columbia Power, Arundel (sand and gravel).</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Theatre</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i>Singin' the Blues </i>- black melodrama by John McGowan, at the Liberty Theatre. Police are closing in on <i>Jim Williams,</i> who has killed a policeman in a Chicago gambling raid and fled to Harlem with his pockets full of winnings. But <i>Jim</i> falls in love with night club prima donna <i>Susan Blake</i> and "tarries when it is in his interest to slip away to the South," spending much of the play a step and a half ahead of the police. Simple but entertaining; McGowan takes shortcuts in storytelling but actors are "more than competent and the staging is often picturesque."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Movie</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i>Alexander Hamilton </i>- Warner film, at the Hollywood. Starring George Arliss in the title role, adapted from his play; least effective of his talking films since he's a much better actor than playwright. "Today, when history is being pretty thoroughly de-bunked by most writers," the film seems even weaker than the play did in 1917. Not that Mr. Arliss has made Hamilton a saint, for he treats "frankly, although rather unconvincingly Hamilton's affair with Mrs. Reynolds." However, film provides a "sketch portrait which lays too great emphasis upon the sentimental and grandiose side of the first Secretary of the Treasury."</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Joke</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;">Timid Traveler - Has anyone ever been lost crossing the river here? Ferryman - No, sir. My brother drowned here last week, but we found him next day.</span></span></p>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-22636486320289894182010-09-22T17:47:00.001-10:002010-09-22T17:52:08.752-10:00Friday, September 18, 1931: Dow 121.76 +2.50 (2.1%)<p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Administrative note: </b><span style="">I had intended to maintain the day-by-day summary here until July of 1932 when (spoiler alert) the Dow industrials finally bottomed out at 41 and change. I still intend to continue the summaries until then, but due to heavy workload, I'm going to have to cut back to a more leisurely pace for a while - I'll only be able to post a summary every two or three days. I also hope to get to some other little projects that I've been meaning to tackle for a while - stay tuned ...</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Assorted historical stuff</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Col. Ayres </b>of the Cleveland Trust Co. presents very interesting chart of US business activity since 1790; there have been 20 well-defined periods of serious depression in that time, of which the current one is the most severe. Business activity in July 1931 dropped to 28% below normal, next lowest records are 27% below normal in 1921 and 22% in 1808. Each of the country's three great wars has been followed by a “primary post-war depression, and then, after a prosperous period, by a secondary post-war depression.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Editorial by </b>T. Woodlock attributing failure of abundant and cheap credit to help business as it normally would to lack of confidence; “it is not potential supply of credit that is lacking ... but the will to use it. ... Doubt paralyzes the will, and the more people know of the facts, the more doubtful they become of the outlook. It is a vicious circle. ... And so long as this condition lasts, the mere addition of cash to the money supplies will not help much.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Mahatma M.K. </b>Gandhi says US “great hoard of gold a curse and a primary cause of the depression”; “must be dissipated, distributed, and put into circulation.” Says US has “not learned the lesson of equitable distribution of wealth ... still, your poorest are more prosperous than the Indian poor.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Pres. Hoover </b>appoints 18 more to Advisory Committee of Unemployment Relief Organization headed by W. Gifford, increasing membership to 99. <b>Labor Sec. Doak </b>says US Employment Service receiving encouraging reports from almost all parts of the country on progress of the work of connecting the jobless with jobs.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Former US Ambassador </b>to Germany J. Gerard charges Germany “making money out of bankruptcy”; calls for bankers to “aid our own countrymen.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Editorial:</b> Germany's record August trade surplus of $77M, far from being favorable, is an ominous sign, since it was accomplished by reduction of German imports to their level in 1898, when Germany was just starting its industrial development. The August surplus seems to have been due to a sort of “clearance sale” in which it exported manufactured goods without replenishing raw materials. Repeats yet again warning that Germany will be unable to resume reparations payments next July.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Neville Chamberlain </b>has, according to London reports, won over the entire Conservative party to idea of general election, with 33 1/3% tariff as chief plank.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>J. S. Baker, </b>NY State Bankers' Assoc. pres., hits indiscriminate proposals for changes in state banking law after closing of the Bank of US and other institutions; says regulations can't replace “honesty, sound judgement and conservative policies in the conduct of a bank's affairs.” <b>J. Broderick,</b> NY State Supt. of Banks, calls for cooperation between savings banks to analyze securities before buying; says bonds too often bought from salesmen just because they are on the legal list.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Editorial: </b>We've arrived at the stage where wage cuts are imperative to prevent continued and increased unemployment; “it is, in fact, a choice between reduced money wages and no wages at all.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>World's greatest </b>skyscraper builders are the three Starrett brothers - Paul, William and Ralph. Since arriving in NY in 1900, they have built the Pennsylvania Station, the Plaza, Commodore and Biltmore hotels, the NY Life Building, and, most recently, the Chrysler and Empire State Buildings.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Market commentary</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Market wrap:</b> Stocks opened under a heavy accumulation of sell orders and showed “pronounced irregularity” in the first 3 hours, with declines in active stocks across the list; bear market lows were hit in Steel, Can, and AT&T. However, news of abrupt rallies in Paris and Amsterdam was followed by a general recovery, with sharp runups in some shares; rally picked up momentum and market closed at the day's highs. <b>US govts.</b> a firm spot in an irregular bond market; European issues fairly steady but S. American broke sharply. Domestic corp. issues generally weak, though a sharp late rally left the Dow 40-bond average slightly higher. <b>Cotton futures </b>dipped to new season lows; Oct. cotton hit 27-year low of 6.45 cents/pound. Corn also fell but wheat was strong in spite of heavy Russian shipments. Copper held at 7 cents/pound, 2 cents lower than any price previous to this year, but buying remains small.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Berlin market </b>sharply lower on foreign selling; London stocks down on Wall Street reports and general election talk. Stocks in Paris and Amsterdam also fell sharply but rallied in late trading.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Public utilities</b> have come under pressure recently, partly attributed to fears of legislation and agitation for lower rates. <b>General Foods </b>is the only member of the Dow industrial average to have held above its 1929-30 bottom.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NYSE observers </b>say that while recent declines are mostly due to domestic liquidation, they've also been given impetus by selling from abroad, representing both liquidation and short-selling; “cable advices reflect rampant bearishness in financial sentiment abroad.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Spencer Trask & Co.: </b>“For the first time it may be said that security prices are in many cases as excessively low as they were excessively high during the boom year. The extent of pessimism has gone beyond all reason and has now carried to a point from which a sharp turn-about could develop.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>J.C. Penney </b>says that though evidence of sharp business improvement is lacking, there's been some noticeable return of confidence by the consuming public over the past 90 days.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NYSE pres. </b>R. Whitney scores attempts to help one industry or section of the country at the expense of others; calls for “free and open expression of the forces of supply and demand”; traces current problems to past interference with these forces. “There has been much criticism of the seeming inertness with which American business has faced this depression. I am not sure that in reality this passive attitude may not, in the main, have been rather wise.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>The steel trade </b>now expects US Steel to announce wage cuts at the monthly directors' meeting Sept. 29; cut of 10% would save over $7.5M in 1931.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Col. Ayres </b>of the Cleveland Trust Co. says much hoped-for fall upturn in business doesn't appear to be developing. Fundamental cause of problems is decline in commodity prices, but there are three more immediate problems related to that one which are “key logs in the economic jam”: fiscal troubles abroad caused by unbalanced budgets; continued decline in credit by banks seeking to protect themselves; and plight of the railroads.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Economic news and individual company reports</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Commerce Dept. </b>reports Aug. US merchandise exports $165M vs. $298.1M in 1930; imports $166M vs. $218.4M; trade deficit of $1M was first in 25 months; both import and export totals were lowest since Sept. 1914.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Six officials of </b>the Amer. Bond & Mortgage Co., which recently filed for bankruptcy with liabilities of $60M, were indicted by a special Federal grand jury on charges of “using the mails to defraud and obtaining money under false pretense.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Chain store </b>and mail order houses generally are reporting lower dollar sales and profits this year, but higher sales by volume or tonnage.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Current Reichsbank</b> statement reveals substantial loss of foreign currency reserves as result of supporting the mark in foreign markets and liquidation of German securities by foreigners after reopening of the stock exchange.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Money in circulation </b>Sept. 16 was down $5M to $5.087B, total Reserve Bank credit outstanding up $63M to $1.279B. Member banks in NY City report brokers' loans down $54M to new low of $1.271B; loans on securities to non-brokers up $34M to $1.728B.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Plan proposed </b>by Rep. White of Ohio by which Fed. Reserve would make quick survey of failed banks and “make such loans as were justified,” allowing immediate partial liquidating dividends to be paid and providing some relief for depositors and communities. Fed. Reserve quarters believe this course is already effectively being followed; they point out numerous cases of member banks aiding banks about to fail; this is attributed in many cases to Fed. Reserve support, though “these instances do not become matters for publication.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Officials from </b>Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, together with the Oil States Advisory Committee, will present a plan for allocation of world oil production among major producing countries over 1931-34 to Commerce Sec. Lamont on Sept. 21. <b>Retail gasoline </b>prices cut in Ohio and Minneapolis. <b>Cut in allowed </b>East Texas output, with Gov. Sterling's approval, seen likely.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NYSE seat </b>sold for $185,000, down $10,000 from previous sale.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Companies reporting decent earnings:</b> General Foods, Connecticut Electric Service.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Report from Paris</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;">The Opera Comique, one of France's foremost national theatres, is being “redecorated and rejuvenated”; when it opens Oct. 1, “our own perennially young Mary Garden” will be a leading singer. This theatre has been one of the most hospitable to US vocalists; “each year shows a lengthening list of young and not so young singers who have come from Hollywood ... Chicago, NY and New Orleans”; Miss Garden herself “became a prima donna overnight on this stage. It is not important how many years ago this was ...” [Note: Garden was born Feb. 20, 1874, so was 57; she died in 1967.]</span></p>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-21876056840757153822010-09-17T15:56:00.001-10:002010-09-18T19:21:08.415-10:00Thursday, September 17, 1931: Dow 119.26 -1.33 (1.1%)<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgba-CUx_vSvUaxClI5SSEPg9Y6QOy5W6I2LQO6SId7hYLbfnJ-GK2hrsDLKMZHRQf4SOkxWTPfiP_eG7jZrqvmMJ-ZBuF31frsQaKWagHv5zOipECKWlGqJdopBGVoRzzK-wIwq9Viuxyx/s1600/waldorf+silver.JPG"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 305px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgba-CUx_vSvUaxClI5SSEPg9Y6QOy5W6I2LQO6SId7hYLbfnJ-GK2hrsDLKMZHRQf4SOkxWTPfiP_eG7jZrqvmMJ-ZBuF31frsQaKWagHv5zOipECKWlGqJdopBGVoRzzK-wIwq9Viuxyx/s400/waldorf+silver.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5518490347332656802" border="0" /></a><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Assorted historical stuff</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Sen. Glass </b><span style="">(D, Virginia) believes tax increase at next Congress inevitable; impossible to cut spending enough to "justify maintaining present policy of meeting deficits by short and long-term loans."</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Editorial calling </b>Pres. Hoover's response to bankers' call for longer war debt suspension disappointing; now is the time for courageous and prompt action; etc.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Administration favors </b>idea of naval construction holiday; would create better atmosphere at disarmament talks, and give economic and budgetary relief.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Pres. Hoover's </b>conference on home ownership to convene Dec. 2; hopes to increase credit for home building.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>G. Swope, </b>GE pres., presents industrial stabilization plan in which industries would cooperatively control production and other matters through trade associations under Federal supervision. Plan would also provide for various worker protections to be adopted by participating cos.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Sir John Simon, </b><span style="">"lifelong freetrader," reverses stand and urges protective tariff to correct British trade imbalance. </span><b>Winston Churchill</b><span style=""> says unnatural accumulation of gold in France and US cause of present situation, urges int'l conference. </span><b>W. Graham</b><span style=""> blames troubles on attempts to meet reparations and war debt payments while maintaining gold standard.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>French press </b>and industrialists alarmed at effects of possible British tariff on luxury exports from France valued at $200M last year.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NY City Comptroller </b>Berry says city getting “little or no permanent benefit” from millions in relief spending; urges that instead of current emergency employment plans, city place under contract at once $190M in public improvements already authorized.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Yet another use </b>has been found for rubber - plants to be shipped or transplanted are dipped in a rubber solution, coating all but the roots. This retains moisture and preserves shape of the foliage. After replanting, resumed growth causes the rubber coating to crack and fall off.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>The state of the art </b>in moving buildings was recently demonstrated by Indiana Bell Telephone, which was able to move an 8-story steel-frame structure across a busy Indianapolis street without any disruption of telephone service.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Market commentary</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Market wrap:</b><span style=""> Stocks went through an irregular session; early trading was on the downside, but several periods of short-covering caused good rallies, particularly after unexpected Westinghouse dividend announcement; however, as soon as this demand was supplied the rallies petered out. Utilities suffered outburst of selling in late afternoon. Bank and insurance shares weak. <b>Bond trading</b> featured early “urgent selling” carrying “numerous issues to record low figures”; this was followed by some moderate rallying. Dow 40 corp. bond average hit new yearly low. US govts. firm; German govts. rallied on favorable trade report. <b>Grains firm; </b>cotton lower; some copper sold at new low of 7 cents/pound.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Dow industrial </b><span style="">average closed at a new bear market low; there were no new yearly highs and 181 new lows.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Conservative interests </b><span style="">discouraged by recent bond market weakness; believe bonds should by precedent lead the way in any rally of securities.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Better resistance </b>shown by leading stocks since start of the week is attributed to traders buying in anticipation of a technical rally, based on the amount of time the market has gone without a recovery of “more than an hour or so's duration.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>H. Branch, pres. </b>of the Federated Chambers of Industry of Mexico, says credit virtually no longer exists in Mexico after new monetary law.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>S. Abrams,</b> Schlitz Brewing Co. treasurer, joins list of observers predicting business stimulus would result from legalization of beer.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Economic news and individual company reports</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Editorial </b><span style="">calling for one-year suspension of rules requiring savings banks to sell bonds that fall below legal requirements. Bond market is in a “condition of utterly unreasoning and unreasonable fear ... sellers have been obliged to make ... positively absurd” concessions. “There is no sense in requiring or pressing institutions to sell bonds ... at a time when it is manifest that ... they can be sold, if at all, only at prices materially below their actual worth.” Current condition of extreme fear can't last that long: “Men do not long rest in violent emotions ... there is, in this world at all events, an end at some time to punishment, and it can not, speaking humanly, now be far off.” <span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>NY Savings Bank </b>Assoc. opposes change in requirements for legal bonds; favors efforts to restore rail credit instead. </span></span></span></span></span><b>Value of </b><span style="">all NYSE-listed bonds fell $1.057B in August, to $47.319B; largest monthly decline since NYSE began compiling figures in Jan. 1925.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Westinghouse </b><span style="">unexpectedly declared a quarterly dividend of 62 1/2 cents vs. previous $1; Street had been expecting a dividend suspension.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Steel operations </b>partly recovered from the Labor Day; production for week ended Monday was slightly over 30% vs. 28 1/2% previous week, 31% two weeks ago, 58% in 1930, and 84% in 1929. <b>Weekly steel </b>reviews somewhat divided. Iron Age reports more promising inquiries from railroads, pipelines, and auto makers, and increasing construction activity. Steel reports slight improvement in current production, but “Sept. is now more than half gone with no acceleration in either production or new business”; continuing hopes for seasonal improvement “have no actual, tangible support in consumer committments.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>East Texas </b>oil prices weakening as production mounts; sales as low as 32 cents/barrel reported. <b>Chicago wholesale </b>gasoline steady at 3 1/2 - 4 cents/gallon.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Analysis showing </b>Kreuger & Toll securities have now fallen to the point that “net asset values of the Kreuger & Toll Co. exceed by a substantial margin the present market prices for its various securities. ... Net income ... in the current year probably will make a good showing although not up” to the 1930 record high; earnings of about $2.75 per American certificate are expected, while the certificates are selling at about $11.50. <b>Swedish stock </b>exchange rallied sharply; Kreuger & Toll and Swedish Match up strongly.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>German trade </b>surplus in Aug. a monthly record of $77M due to sharp fall in imports. <b>Surge in trade </b>surplus caused improved sentiment on German situation; marks rose sharply.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>French banker </b>Albert Oustric, imprisoned for financial manipulations, to be freed due to ill health. </span></span> </p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Good demand </b>reported for just-issued $40M in long-term NY State bonds (at record low yield); over $25M have already been distributed.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Mortgage foreclosure </b><span style="">suit filed against Hotel Pierre.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Companies reporting decent earnings:</b> American Tobacco, Long Island RR.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style=""><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Theatre</b>:</span></span></span></i></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style=""><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><i>The Constant Sinner </i><span style="font-style: normal;">- written by and starring Mae West, from her novel of the same title. West is indeed “a constant sinner against all generally accepted notions of good taste in the theatre,” though she does bring “an undeniably unique personal quality to all her efforts” and arouses “a certain degree of enthusiasm in her audience.” The play, however, is “downright boring and poorly written,” tracing through 16 scenes the rise of <span style=""><i>Babe Gordon,</i></span> a white prostitute in Harlem, from the day she meets and captivates a rising white boxer. While she eventually marries the boxer, she also obtains “material advancement” from a black “policy king” and a rich white department store manager; “vice would appear to have its own rewards in this tale,” though <i>Babe</i> is also reduced to peddling dope for a short time after she has ruined her boxer husband and been temporarily impoverished. “Miss West moves on and off the stage ... in her inimitable slouching manner, reading the play's choicest salacious lines, written by her especially for her experienced delivery.”</span></span></span></span></span></p>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-11617616093937067972010-09-16T19:56:00.002-10:002010-09-17T15:57:44.966-10:00Wednesday, September 16, 1931: Dow 120.59 -0.71 (0.6%)<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgombixEtOebY4EiObXhUJLxhLQf2OwI7519V6mc0NmAyixjFhph3aWLoOInn88Ui8exywXBZdO6xcIV9AOcKuae1QmOAQoiLi0P0OSW-KHUjgwC_j_1SvvJUqFKhZC0oIwcUK9J4sBmG0-/s1600/bosch+radio.JPG"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 308px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgombixEtOebY4EiObXhUJLxhLQf2OwI7519V6mc0NmAyixjFhph3aWLoOInn88Ui8exywXBZdO6xcIV9AOcKuae1QmOAQoiLi0P0OSW-KHUjgwC_j_1SvvJUqFKhZC0oIwcUK9J4sBmG0-/s400/bosch+radio.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5518066834378441538" border="0" /></a><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Assorted historical stuff</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>"High Washington </b><span style="">officials are understood to have reached the conclusion that it is time for the Federal Govt. to assume the leadership in organizing to bolster the business and financial weak spots," though reports are conflicting on what actions are planned along these lines. Rumors of immediate further action on war debts or legalization of beer said without foundation. There are discussions of organizing bankers to "support foreclosed and weakly held real estate," as well as to stimulate cotton exports through offering credit for purchases. <span style=""><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;">Administration approach seen aimed at having govt. “take the leadership in suggesting the organization of private resources and efforts” rather than passage of new laws. </span></span></span></span></span><b>"Hoarding" of currency </b>is causing some concern; "obvious way out ... is a reestablishment of public confidence in the banking structure. The method of doing that has escaped officials and experts here so far." Some have suggested guaranteeing bank deposits, but it's understood this has been "rejected since such schemes usually have ended in disaster." <b>Rumors have </b>circulated for some time that Pres. Hoover or some other high official plans an important statement, but White House officials say they're aware of nothing of the kind.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Labor Dept. </b>reports five-day week gaining; of 37,857 establishments in 77 industries, 2.4% have permanently adopted a 5-day week, and 5.6% of employees are now on a 5-day week. Auto industry had highest percentage of workers on 5-day week, 44.3%.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>London Times </b>reports US bankers who met Pres. Hoover Monday asked him to amend Hoover debt plan to 4 or 5 year moratorium on all war debts. <b>T. Joslin, </b>secretary to Pres. Hoover, denies London Daily Herald report Hoover is considering a proposal for a world trade conference. <b>British newspapers</b> support move for world gold conference by NY Gov. Roosevelt.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>German Foreign Min. </b>Curtius “startles audience” at League of Nations luncheon, saying he will follow French Foreign Min. Briand on road to common goal of peace.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Mahatma M.K. Gandhi </b>addressed the London Round Table Conference [on India], “wearing his loincloth.” Said was participating in the conference “absolutely in the spirit of cooperation”; offered to withdraw from negotiations if this would help reach an agreement.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>The Cheltenham Express </b><span style="">of the Great Western Rwy. in Britain established a new world record for a regular railroad run on Tuesday, averaging 80.4 mph on its run between Swindon and London.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> “<span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>The Spectator, </b>an insurance magazine,” has compiled a list of the 391 people in the US carrying personal life insurance policies of $1M or more; heading the list is Pierre S. du Pont, with a $7M policy.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Glass jar </b>makers are operating at full capacity to supply demand for home canners, which is “10 times larger than at any time since 1920”; some farm families are reportedly using as many as 5,000 glass jars to preserve food for the winter.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Market commentary</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Market wrap:</b><span style=""> Rallying in major stocks petered out mid-session after announcement of dividend omission by Western Electric. Industrials and utilities weakened; rails severely pressured. Some rallying toward the close. <b>Bonds generally </b>lower in increasingly active market; Dow average of 40 domestic corp. bonds hit another yearly low; US govts. easy; foreign list depressed by steady liquidation in German govts. However, the $40M NY State long-term bond issue sold at a record-low yield of 3.23%. <b>Grains and cotton </b>rose. However, copper was offered at 7 1/4 cents/pound, a new record low and 1 3/4 cents below the lowest price previous to this year.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Dow industrial </b><span style="">average closed at a new bear market low; there were no new yearly highs and 209 new lows.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Yet another rumor </b><span style="">of wage cut announcement by US Steel failed to materialize.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Middle West Utilities </b>was heavily pressured and broke sharply into new low ground.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Sun Life Assurance </b><span style="">of Canada again denies rumors it is selling common stock holdings.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Brokers report </b>renewed short-selling by the public (non-professionals).</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Now that the Dow </b><span style="">averages of </span>rails, utilities and industrials are all at new bear market lows simultaneously, observers once again believe it will require a “selling climax”on large volume for several days before a definite turnaround. Many analysts feel “further immediate progress will be seen on the downside.” However, extent of the decline is disputed; “extreme bears” argue the industrial average might fall into double figures before the current decline is checked, while the more bullish feel that due to the market's “drastic” deflation already, it's illogical to expect the current decline to be as bad as the previous ones.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> “<span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Judging by many </b>comments made in the financial district, a few important interests seem to be waiting for various readjustments they deem necessary before conditions in business and the stock market can change materially for the better. It is contended that these interests have the funds for investment, but are not eager to do much until some of the uncertainties confronting industry are out of the way”; most often mentioned are dividend and wage cuts.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Observers </b>encouraged by recent signs of greater stability in commodity prices; Irving Fisher's wholesale commodity index hasn't varied much in the past 18 weeks.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Economic news and individual company reports</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>The British Treasury </b><span style="">has reportedly drawn on the most recent $200M US credit for $80M; of the total $650M in recent US and French credits, $325M-$350M has been used.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Western Electric Co., </b><span style="">manufacturing subsidiary of AT&T, omitted its quarterly dividend, though AT&T officials said they expected total earnings of the Bell System this year to cover AT&T's $9 annual dividend.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Rail freight loadings </b>for week ended Sept. 5 were 759,546, down 4,218 from prev. week, down 11.3% from 1930 week, and down 25.4% from 1929. Comparison with prev. years distorted by different week in which Labor Day holiday fell. <b>Most class 1 </b><span style="">rails showed seasonal increases in freight in the last two weeks of Aug., but the increases weren't as large as last year.</span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Weekly bank </b><span style="">statements somewhat discouraging; deposits have failed to show seasonal increase. However, there's some evidence of greater confidence on part of bankers; “all other” (mostly business) loans have grown over the past two weeks, while holdings of non-govt. securities have been steady.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Boston retail </b>conference finds some differing opinion on state of retail trade; J. Rosenwald, Sears, Roebuck vice chair., characterized prospects as “not particularly promising,” while John David, head of the John David chain of men's clothing stores, said business was ahead of last year, attributing improvement to strong effort at getting new customers and strategy of lowering prices on goods of the same quality.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;">[Note: Disinterested Observer Dept.] <b>Fred Pabst,</b> pres. of Pabst Corp., says the US govt. would conservatively net $200M/year from tax on legalized beer.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NY Trust Co. </b>estimates annual US food bill at $22B, of which hotels and restaurants account for 26% and family homes 71%. Raising, manufacturing and distributing food remains the largest US industry, slightly exceeding autos.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Companies reporting decent earnings:</b> Sweets Co. of America.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style=""><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Musical</b>:</span></span></span></i></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style=""><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><i>George White's Scandals </i><span style="font-style: normal;">- “11th edition of the <i>Scandals</i> is lusty and merry entertainment ... full of resounding voices and tunes and half-mad knockabout sketches.” The latter include “Pay the Two Dollars” and “The Pedestrian”; the comedy is low, “but in the <i>Scandals</i>, low comedy is at least not ... seen through a keyhole; it is rowdy and unabashed in the burlesque tradition.” Featured performers include singers Rudy Vallee, Ethel Merman and baritone Everett Marshall; the dancing comedian Ray Bolger is “a most welcome rediscovery ... both an ingratiating clown and mimic and a supremely artful dancer.” [Note: yes, it's the guy from the Wizard of Oz.]</span></span></span></span></span></p>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-59248450753955170422010-09-15T18:52:00.002-10:002010-09-16T19:00:18.154-10:00Tuesday, September 15, 1931: Dow 121.30 -2.55 (2.1%)<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizwyyd2i3uUx6ofBOopPAREdmeLK7Tmszf_VmMSFNhiWywXDuBzIQxKH-tb3bmcUiwNVsPr4iGGdaWTHJ1H2EW09-MKXMlv8dnX7ne591Il1gV6G8rS38gn6Zo1aJCbiG4QYX5rickU0cf/s1600/curb.JPG"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 275px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizwyyd2i3uUx6ofBOopPAREdmeLK7Tmszf_VmMSFNhiWywXDuBzIQxKH-tb3bmcUiwNVsPr4iGGdaWTHJ1H2EW09-MKXMlv8dnX7ne591Il1gV6G8rS38gn6Zo1aJCbiG4QYX5rickU0cf/s400/curb.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5517742531455577570" border="0" /></a><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><b>Assorted historical stuff</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Editorial: </b><span style="">While it's reasonable that the American Legion convention next week should ask aid for its members in need this winter. However, based on the recent experience of the veterans' bonus loan, which was estimated to total $350M in new loans has already reached more than twice that, “may not the Legion be asked to consider in all seriousness the justice and even the necessity of limiting relief to veterans” in real need?</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Washington report: </b><span style="">In spite of recent frank admission by high Administration officials that the Farm Board has failed at supporting cotton and wheat prices, the Administration expects to continue the Board as is and defend it vigorously in political campaigns. However, it's believed the Board made its mistake in trying to stabilize prices before controlling production, and “in the future, it was said, every effort will be made to concentrate the board's activities upon building soundly managed cooperatives, with a view to using them to bring about acreage reduction ...”</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Close advisors </b>to NY Gov. Roosevelt say he will call the legislature into special session as many times as needed to get the type of unemployment relief he wants.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Aviation safety </b><span style="">improved dramatically in the first half of 1931 vs. a year earlier; passenger deaths fell from 22 to 9 while miles flown in scheduled operations rose from 16.9M to 20.3M, making miles flown per passenger death 5.3M vs. 2.4M.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>British Schneider Cup </b>team sets new airplane speed record of 386.1 mph over 3 kilometer course.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Latest labor-saving </b>innovation in California is planting of rice by airplane; a single plane can sow 250 to 450 acres a day, flying from 20 to 25 feet above ground at high speed; cost is about $1/acre.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Few countries </b>have gone through greater changes in the postwar years than Ireland; the country has been electrified by the Shannon River hydroelectric development; motor traffic and radio broadcasting have been developed; “nearly all scars of civil war have been eradicated.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>NY City Transit </b><span style="">Commission decided to open operation of the Eighth Ave. Subway to competition; traction [mass transit] co. securities fell sharply.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>Origins of George Spelvin </b><span style="">as the traditional theatre version of John Doe: Producer John Golden had a favorite carpenter by that name on his first play, </span></span><span style=""><i>Turn to the Right</i><span style="font-style: normal;"> (1916). One of the play's actors played two small roles in different makeup, so Golden used the carpenter's name for one of the roles on the program to avoid exposing the double. [Note: Wikipedia, on the other hand, traces the name back to 1886. Georgina Spelvin was the female version, though it has apparently fallen out of use since it was adopted by the star of the X-rated </span><i>The Devil in Miss Jones</i><span style="font-style: normal;">.]</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><b>Market commentary</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Market wrap:</b><span style=""> Following Saturday's weak session, stocks opened under an accumulation of selling orders; ticker ran several minutes behind for the first hour. Industrial and utility averages both broke through the early-June bear market lows, and liquidation continued in the rails. Some feeble rallying in last half-hour. </span><b>Bond prices </b><span style="">fell almost across the list in an active market. Rail and traction [mass transit] bonds particularly weak. Dow 40-bond average hit new yearly low; record low pries in many individual issues. US govts. slightly lower. European govts. generally lower. <b>Grain markets </b>bucked the general downtrend, finishing higher. Cotton held just above season lows.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Dow industrial </b><span style="">average closed at a new bear market low; there were 2 new yearly highs and 199 new lows.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Conservative observers,</b><span style=""> because all three averages have now broken the June lows, now advise even more caution; urge clients to wait for market to establish a new support base.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Bearish professionals </b>“hailed penetration of the June 2 bottom of 121.70 ... as a distinct triumph for their cause,” though it was felt the decline would have to extend for several points to indicate “a further phase of the bear market had been entered.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Brokers report </b><span style="">increased liquidation from discouraged longs; extent of liquidation indicated by selling in investment issues over past week, including preferred stocks certain to maintain dividends. </span><b>"Important interests</b><span style=""> with funds available for the purchase of investment stocks have not been attracted into the market in large numbers thus far."</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Foreign currencies </b>have been moving in a narrow range. Dealers are cautious about taking positions in view of swiftly changing sentiment; “market opinion about sterling has shifted constantly.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><b>Economic news and individual company reports</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>F. Sisson, </b><span style="">Guaranty Trust VP, cites study of 97 companies over the past two years showing those that increased advertising spending in 1930 did relatively better than those that decreased it (profits only down 29% vs. 55%), and did still better in 1931.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Average yield of </b><span style="">12 leading NY and Boston bank stocks is now 5.67%, a high for the depression but still lower than the peak of 6.88% in 1921.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Arrangements made </b>to provide relief to 70,000 depositors of seven recently closed banks in NY, Brooklyn and Queens; Manufacturers Trust will open new accounts immediately for the depositors containing 50% of their balances at the closed banks, and then liquidate the closed banks' assets. Total deposits at the closed banks were $42.1M. The relief undertaking is supported by a large group of leading NY City banks.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>With all signatures </b>assured on the plan for maintenance of short-term credits to Germany, the agreement will take effect by the end of the week; at that time, foreign banks will be allowed to withdraw 25% of mark balances, or 350M - 400M marks. Some public nervousness is reported about possible currency depreciation, though the Reichsbank reportedly believes the mark's value can be maintained without difficulty for the next few months.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Berlin bonds </b>are not being quoted; interest payments are due Oct. 1, but “leading bankers call it inconceivable that the Reich will not aid the city ...”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Companies reporting decent earnings:</b> Telautograph (machines transmitting diagrams by wire).</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style=""><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><b>Movie</b>:</span></span></span></i></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><i>Five Star Final</i> - First National film, at the Winter Garden. Louis Weitzenkorn's “bitter dramatic broadside against tabloid journalism” is adapted into a “vitally effective talking picture” starring Edward G. Robinson. <i>Randall,</i> a cynical editor for the <i>Evening Gazette,</i> digs up an old murder story and investigates the current life of the “murderess”; it turns out this woman is now happily married, with a daughter unaware of the episode and about to be married. The girl's mother and stepfather commit suicide after the story, and the girl herself tries to shoot Randall but is restrained. “The film ends with a powerful cinematic touch, showing a ... copy of the <i>Evening Gazette</i> being swept up in the gutter along with the mire and filth of the street. While the movie adaptation was largely faithful to the play, a few interesting changes were made. “Some of the dialogue has been softened for the benefit of movie-goers whose ears are more sensitive to rough language than those of the hardened denizens of Broadway.” Also, to comply with the Will Hays code, the unsympathetic clergyman in the play was changed to “a man who was expelled from divinity school for immoral conduct, and Boris Karloff is caused to enact the role in an excessively unctuous manner”; in addition, a genuine minister has been added who does show sympathy.</span></span></span></p>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-37101224702438628622010-09-14T21:27:00.002-10:002010-09-15T13:21:23.320-10:00Monday, September 14, 1931: Dow 123.85 -4.38 (3.4%)<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhod_NkemG6_E6TzcnOj5zqMw4FpiPLu6B2xQ9l6aNh1jiEPoqiaIhppR_TRkS3EShol8T4P7t95aKq6TMNn4JYRl4neU58SwKkCjG_vy1p26h_h_oOauVvXdPHrHQ4Tz-E6aHLpUU3pSAF/s1600/barrymore.png"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 250px; height: 328px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhod_NkemG6_E6TzcnOj5zqMw4FpiPLu6B2xQ9l6aNh1jiEPoqiaIhppR_TRkS3EShol8T4P7t95aKq6TMNn4JYRl4neU58SwKkCjG_vy1p26h_h_oOauVvXdPHrHQ4Tz-E6aHLpUU3pSAF/s400/barrymore.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5517284371882034418" border="0" /></a><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Assorted historical stuff</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Times special </b><span style="">reports "officials in Washington concerned with the public's apparent exaggeration of distress conditions likely to prevail ... during coming winter."</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Editorial:</b><span style=""> Likely outcome of the upcoming budget negotiations is "a compromise between borrowing and taxation, with reduction of the national expenditure, which should come first, taking third place."</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>US Census </b><span style="">reports 48.833M people gainfully employed as of Apr.1, of which 38.054M were men and 10.779M women; this represented a substantial increase in the number of women employed. Highest number of male workers were in manufacturing and mechanical jobs (11.901M), while 9.568M were in agricultural work. Among women, the largest number was in domestic and personal service work (3.149M).</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>AFL estimates </b><span style="">5.1M now unemployed, 7M jobless by January if unemployment increases at current rate.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>NY Gov. </b><span style="">Roosevelt is reportedly considering John D. Rockefeller, Jr. for chairman of his emergency unemployment relief commission.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Puerto Rico Gov. </b><span style="">Theodore Roosevelt, Jr. points to improvement in Puerto Rican finances in face of depression; ran surplus for first time in 17 years; banks in better condition.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>German Foreign Min. </b><span style="">Curtius gave impassioned speech to the League of Nations Assembly, demanding new reparations settlement and parity in armaments. Called upon League to “justify its existence”; says security based on arms supremacy “sows mistrust and revives the armament race idea, the abolition of which was the most vital purpose of the creation of the League.” Admonished France not to exploit German weakness to further French ends. French Premier Laval and Foreign Min. Briand accept invitation to visit Berlin; however, French believe discussion will be along general lines as atmosphere is too troubled for deep political discussions.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Mexico </b><span style="">admitted to League of Nations.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>H. Gibson, </b>chair. of NY City emergency unemploymen committee, says unemployment emergency twice as bad as last year; covers all classes; presents people of NY with greatest responsibility since the World War.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>The US War Dept.</b><span style=""> must give special permission before a Medal of Honor can be worn by a film actor. In addition, the medal, if rented, must be returned to its owner every night.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Market commentary</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Market wrap:</b><span style=""> Stocks declined throughout Saturday's short session; the market opened lower after rumors of a bullish overnight announcement from Washington (possibly concerning legalization of beer) failed to materialize. Selling spread from individual stocks across the list, though volume wasn't large; bids were thin in many issues. <b>Bonds active </b>and irregular; US govts. firm; foreign govts. and domestic corp. issues continued “readjustment” though rallies appeared “in bonds that have been carried below their real worth.” <b>Grains and </b>cotton weak.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Weak spots </b><span style="">included Westinghouse, Allied Chemical, AT&T, various rails, and trading favorites including Auburn and Eastman Kodak.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>The Dow industrials </b><span style="">closed only about 2 points above the bear market low of June 2; rails closed at 59.44, a new post-1898 low.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>"Judging by the action </b><span style="">of certain stocks which were bull pool favorites, a number of these groups have been disbanded."</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>The Swedish </b><span style="">stock exchange featured sharp declines in Kreuger & Toll debentures and Swedish Match [Ivar-Kreuger associated].</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>"Rockefeller interests" </b><span style="">are reportedly accumulating Standard Oil of NJ stock in the most substantial volume since the memorable order for a million shares at 50 to check the decline in the stock during the Oct. - Nov. 1929 collapse.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style=""><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Week in review</b>:</span></span></span></i></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Industrial stocks </b><span style="">followed the lead set by the rails in early Sept. and broke downward out of the narrow July-Aug. trading range, falling to the lowest levels since early June; new bear market lows hit in majors including Steel, GE, Westinghouse, and Nat'l. Biscuit. Rails continued downward to a new post-1898 low; several roads reduced or omitted dividends. However, “the most potent factor influencing pressure on the principal industrials was the absence of any signs of a seasonal upturn in heavy lines of trade.”</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Rumors developed </b>toward the weekend of “strong measures on part of the administration to relieve the depression,” possibly including legalization of 3% beer. However, no news arrived.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Steel news </b>continued to be poor; operations dropped to yearly low of 28 1/2%, though this was partly due to Labor Day. Promise of better automotive buying postponed to October. Many bankers believe wage cuts are now important in order to “bring costs down all along the line and thus widen markets.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Bonds moved </b>mostly lower. Domestic corp. list weak, with Dow 40-bond average hitting a new low. Lower-grade rail issues particularly weak, with many individual issues hitting record lows; however, best-quality legal bonds were relatively steady. Industrial bonds pressured all week. Public utility bonds joined in the decline, though recessions were mild. <b>US govts. </b>fell early in the week after the recent large new issues, but rebounded on Friday. <b>German govts. </b>hit record low, then rallied. British govts. down fractionally. S. American continued irregular.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Foreign currency </b>news featured the British situation; drastic new austerity budget introduced by new British govt.; Chancellor Snowden said country had been living beyond its means, causing lack of confidence in sterling; Bank of England is supporting sterling using the $400M US-French credit, and this is seen continuing until decisive action by British govt. to bring budget into balance has restored confidence.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Cotton hit </b>new season lows; Oct. cotton hit 6.50 cents, a post-1904 low. Various plans for curtailment of cotton acreage being debated. <b>Grain prices </b>moved in narrow range.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Economic news and individual company reports</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>British Chancellor </b><span style="">Snowden for the second time extended a temporary 15M sterling increase in the Bank of England's "fiduciary" note issue (not covered by gold) to 275M; limit was first raised Aug. 2 when reserves had fallen to dangerously low levels and the need for currency was expanding. <b>W. Price </b>of Livingston & Co. rather positive on actions of new British coalition govt.; says they demonstrate “great moral character coupled with bravery.”</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>C. Adams,</b><span style=""> First Nat'l. Stores treasurer, estimates "invisible" taxes, including import duties, excise taxes, licenses, etc., take $300 - $500 annually from the purse of the average family.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Despite all the discussion </b><span style="">of new car models supposedly coming soon, carmakers appear to be deferring new model introductions; there's little evidence any major maker will have anything to offer before late Nov. Drastically lower Q3 shipments don't augur well for earnings in the period.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>F.W. Dodge </b><span style="">reports new construction contracts awarded in August in the 37 states East of the Rockies were $233.1M, down 33% from Aug. 1930. </span></span></span></span></span> </p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Fisher's wholesale </b>commodity index remained at 68.9, a postwar low but unchanged for the past 3 weeks.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Texas Legislature </b>adjourned until Monday without taking action on curtailment of cotton planting. Texas Gov. Sterling says will veto cotton “holiday” bill advocated by Louisiana Gov. Huey Long.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Oil industry </b><span style="">representatives and delegates from oil producing states met in Oklahoma City to consider plans for stabilization of the industry. </span><b>Texas Railroad </b>Commission modified East Texas order to restrict drilling after “abnormal increase” in number of wells. Field has been producing over 400,000 barrels/day recently.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>In spite of lowest </b><span style="">refined copper production in N. and S. America in many years and a moderate increase in shipments, inventories of refined copper reached a new high record of 455,775 tons in August.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>While the Farm Board </b>has recently disposed of 47.5M bushels of surplus wheat in sales abroad, it still holds about 182.5M bushels, costing about $2.7M a month in storage charges. <b>Agriculture Dept.</b> estimates gross income for farmers in 1930-31 season at $9.3B, down 22% from previous year; “general prospect for farm markets and prices anything but assuring.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>US Postal </b>deficit seen likely to reach $200M this fiscal year.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style=""><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>New NYSE </b>listings in August were $98.1M vs. $416.4M in July and $357.9M in Aug. 1930; first 8 months $2.221B vs. $6.902B in 1930 and $10.619B in 1929.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NY State </b>expected to get extremely low interest rate on $40M bond sale Tuesday.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NY State savings banks </b>deposits rose $21.2M in August, to a new high record of $5.113B.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Companies reporting decent earnings:</b><span style=""> Detroit Edison Co.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Movie</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style=""><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><i>The Guardsman </i><span style="font-style: normal;">- MGM film, at the Astor. "A treat of brilliant acting ... in which Alfred Lunt and Lynn Fontanne, most distinguished team of actors on the American stage, are re-enacting on the screen their most popular theatrical success." Adaptation is faithful to the Ferenc Molnar comedy. Mr. Lunt plays an egotistical actor who feels his wife's passion toward him cooling and "sets out to test her fidelity by masquerading as a guardsman and wooing her in what he describes as 'the greatest role I have ever played.'"</span></span></span></span></span></p>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-77230043457337634192010-09-13T20:17:00.000-10:002010-09-13T20:19:34.928-10:00The Irregular Blather September 13, 1931<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXZQWUDEDy5FfvsA1amdC2ElE4ZdtA_adX2daVFLbzsVVTW6Kl67MjlhEMZKLR3Eq42flcMUh9OjQpuB0pu2I5rED6sVG0ef-aQWwyy8XgVQak4wxxihHmehEK_cgiX53YbnjSXfDc624T/s1600/vroom.png"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 250px; height: 117px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXZQWUDEDy5FfvsA1amdC2ElE4ZdtA_adX2daVFLbzsVVTW6Kl67MjlhEMZKLR3Eq42flcMUh9OjQpuB0pu2I5rED6sVG0ef-aQWwyy8XgVQak4wxxihHmehEK_cgiX53YbnjSXfDc624T/s400/vroom.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5516649972321193682" border="0" /></a><br /><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><b>No Journal </b>was published Sunday, September 13, 1931. See you tomorrow back in 1931!</span>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-11787304858037280222010-09-12T20:34:00.000-10:002010-09-13T23:48:14.508-10:00Saturday, September 12, 1931: Dow 128.23 +0.93 (0.7%)<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi172C2wRgV0lIiwmlOn2XCq5mDGRvFerLsh8Pw3Ndt_kWCwiWZaYKybGssH7Bj41qWEect74k0ak5qkGn0yZjV6j7d_45nAMp40xfnzV9wWA5i4AUXlQnUqZ-gvoNJ3q-ck_22LprUG2qF/s1600/savoia.png"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 250px; height: 381px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi172C2wRgV0lIiwmlOn2XCq5mDGRvFerLsh8Pw3Ndt_kWCwiWZaYKybGssH7Bj41qWEect74k0ak5qkGn0yZjV6j7d_45nAMp40xfnzV9wWA5i4AUXlQnUqZ-gvoNJ3q-ck_22LprUG2qF/s400/savoia.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5516703759058767202" border="0" /></a><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Assorted historical stuff</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>House of Commons </b>debate adjourned until Monday on the MacDonald coalition govt.'s drastic austerity budget. PM MacDonald explained that the bill gave the govt. the power to issue “orders-in-council, which have something of the semi-dictatorial effect of the 'Government by Decree' in Germany”; while only effective for a month, the orders could be altered only by act of Parliament. Labor bitterly attacked the bill as one to “suppress the opposition ... and make a mere mockery of parliamentary govt.”; also warned the measure could become a precedent for a future Labor govt. Attributed crisis largely to Conservative propaganda launched to “discredit the Labor govt. and bring it down by fair means or foul.” <b>Foreign currency </b>observers believe sterling is still being supported by Bank of England, and that this will continue until the budget situation becomes clearer. <b>Britain will sell </b>its giant R-100 airship as an economy measure; sister to the ill-fated R-101 airship that crashed on its first flight near Beauvais, France, killing 48; the R-100 made a successful round trip to Canada.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> “<span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>The long fingers </b>of economic depression finally have touched France”; a heavy budget deficit is predicted this year, and “retrenchment ... is now the watchword.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Mahatma M.K. Gandhi </b>visits Marseilles; welcomed by thousands “intensely curious as to the appearance and habits of the wizened Indian leader.” Will arrive in London Saturday morning; hopes new British govt. brings no change in attitude on Indian independence. Can't see independence on “immediate horizon. However, I have faith in God and humanity.” Denies reports of US visit: “America isn't ripe for my message ... It is better for my mission that I remain far away, where I am only a legend to the American people.” To repeated requests from over 100 reporters, finally answered: “I believe in equality for everyone except reporters and photographers. I detest photographers and still more journalists. It's no use pestering me. I will not answer.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Col. H. Cooper, </b>US engineer of the Russian Dneiper development, says Communism has been replaced by state capitalism in Russia; “this is not hearsay but information from the powers that be.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Hurricane destroys </b>city of Belize, capital of British Honduras; about 150 killed.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Labor Sec. </b>Doak says the Labor Dept.'s newly reorganized US employment service has found jobs for 600,000 - 700,000 unemployed; says their new buying power “will do more than anything else to restore normal conditions.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Sen. Watson </b>comes out against any tax rise “as long as Sec. Mellon could sell short term securities”; believes rise at this time would be disastrous for business.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Reassuring study </b>by Comptroller of the Currency Pole shows less than 25% of national bank bond holdings are subject to depreciation reserves. Total investments of nat'l. banks as of June 30 were $7.674B; of these, $4.351B were Federal and local govt. bonds, and most of the remaining $3.323B is in high-grade securities; it's estimated only about $1.5B of holdings are subject to depreciation reserves. In the past year, banks have been allowed to carry high-grade govt. bonds at full value since depreciation is believed “due purely to market conditions”; for “speculative bonds,” the govt. is requiring “a reasonable deduction for depreciation which may be accounted for over ... three or four years.” This policy, in effect for about a year, is more liberal than the earlier one requiring banks “to write down their bondholdings indiscriminately on the basis of depreciated market values.” However, it's “not so liberal as to jeopardize the interests of depositors.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Story by H. Alloway </b>noting the Erie Railroad headquarters' move to Cleveland; it had been in NY since the railroad's founding 100 years earlier (1831).</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Jack Dempsey </b>reportedly planning comeback.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Market commentary</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Market wrap:</b> Stocks showed signs of oversold position; after a period of pressure carrying many issues to new low ground, rallying set in that was more impressive than in some time; short-covering increased during the afternoon, by traders leaving early for the weekend because of the heat. <b>Domestic corp. bonds </b>sharply lower in active market; the Dow bond averages, as well as many individual issues, hit new yearly lows. On the other hand, US govts. rallied and European issues were steady. <b>Grains up </b>sharply after announcement of Farm Board sale. Cocoa hit another record low.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Conservative observers </b>continue to recommend the sidelines.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Dow average </b>of 10 second-grade rail issues suffered a record-setting decline in August, falling 9.58 to close at 70.76. The Dow average of 40 corporate bonds fell 3.94 to 77.05. <b>E.A. MacNutt,</b> Sun Life of Canada treasurer, warns that 75% of all rail bonds will lose status as legal savings bank investments this year unless business substantially improves.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Short interest</b> has reportedly increased substantially in recent sessions, as bears are encouraged by lack of seasonal business improvement.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Rail officials</b> seem increasingly focused on conserving assets and protecting bondholders, in preference to paying dividends not earned.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Wall Street </b>continues to believe announcement of wage cuts in the steel industry will come soon; while effect might be immediately bearish, it's believed this would be beneficial in the long term, and “a long step toward the readjustment” needed by business generally.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Drug company </b>earnings have held up well this year; Nine leading cos. reported first-half earnings of $19.977M, down only 2.4% from 1930.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Real estate man</b> Rockwell Smith has gone through a file of newspapers dating back to the 1850's, and found a series of 9 depressions at intervals of 3 to 12 years, lasting from a few months (1907) to 30 months (1873); the current one has lasted about 20 months. The longer the depression, the stronger the subsequent recovery.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Economic news and individual company reports</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Ths oil trade </b>has experienced an “almost complete change” in sentiment since the reopening of the East Texas area; prices in the Chicago wholesale gasoline market have dropped sharply to as low as 3 1/2 - 4 cents/gallon, vs. 6 cents less than a month ago. The new order limits production per well but not drilling, which has been rapidly increasing; “it now appears that production will again reach unfavorable proportions in the near future.” Oklahoma Gov. Murray maintains the shutdown of production there, but his $1/ barrel price target now looks remote unless East Texas output is reduced. However, Murray remains firm, saying he's rejected “feelers” for a compromise of about 85 cents.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Farm Board </b>announces sale of 7.5M bushels of surplus wheat to Germany; price is 49 1/2 cents/bushel, credit terms 4 1/2% maturing Dec. 1934. Total export sales by the Board since July 1 to China, Brazil and Germany 47.5M bushels. The Board has also sold about 10M bushels since June 30 in the domestic market.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Texas House </b>of Representatives defeated Long plan for one-year cotton holiday in a test vote, by 55-45. House continues to debate cotton bills.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Bradstreet's weekly </b>reports “slightly increased wholesale activity and a fair volume of retail trade in seasonal lines.” Prices notably lower than last year. Sales on summer merchandise less frequent; retailers apparently successful at clearing out stocks, though at low profits.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Rosoff plan </b>for Bank of US reorganization abandoned after NY State started making liquidation payments to depositors.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Company reports </b>since July 1: 208 companies reported higher earnings vs. 1930 and 639 lower; 897 dividends unchanged, 21 increased, 167 cut.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Companies reporting decent earnings:</b> Warren Foundry & Pipe, Equitable Office Building.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Theatre</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i>Ladies of Creation </i>- “Pleasant farce” at the Cort Theatre. Title alludes to “those modern business women who use their feminine wiles to wheedle contracts out of reluctant men, to obtain the loyalty of their employes, and to please their customers, both male and female.” Play follows <i>Sybil Vanderlyn,</i> one such successful businesswoman, who comes to grief after firing her competent manager and attempting to carry on the business with her effeminate assistant, <i>Mr. Dinkle</i>. [Note: Broadway - some things never change!] Happy ending ensues as her former manager is summoned back, “announces his love for her, and takes control of the situation.”</span></span></p>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-48827364358694672412010-09-11T19:46:00.001-10:002010-09-12T02:09:04.500-10:00Friday, September 11, 1931: Dow 127.30 -1.13 (0.9%)<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzfzwyTIB9ltUc_g4QDX6VAwC3K8vBZivf3RM3_-or03tf1rWd3QukbNn3gc5IZ5wZy5FQfO6jlbqR-V75-tN9Tm4PRNgPYTwVzmRVQgJ_u6JUl2j1Vy6VQqFEY3dEhsGCcSaVVckD-VQL/s1600/murad+2.png"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 250px; height: 300px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzfzwyTIB9ltUc_g4QDX6VAwC3K8vBZivf3RM3_-or03tf1rWd3QukbNn3gc5IZ5wZy5FQfO6jlbqR-V75-tN9Tm4PRNgPYTwVzmRVQgJ_u6JUl2j1Vy6VQqFEY3dEhsGCcSaVVckD-VQL/s400/murad+2.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5515997860407239586" border="0" /></a><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Note: </b>I only have time for a short version today, and probably for a few weeks to come, due to heavy workload</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Assorted historical stuff</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>"Powerful pressure" </b><span style="">is reportedly being brought on Pres. Hoover by "high govt. officials as well as influential private citizens" to legalize 3% beer; it's argued this would increase Federal revenues by $300M annually. Proponents are optimistic of success.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Administration officials </b><span style="">have reportedly concluded stabilization of farm product prices has been proven a failure; will now concentrate efforts on disposal of farm products at best price obtainable, support bank credits for farm exports; oppose acreage cutting as unsound.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Russia reportedly </b><span style="">became the world’s leading wheat exporter between July and Oct., taking over the usual US position.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Republican-controlled </b><span style="">legislative committees in NY State have decided to report favorably Gov. Roosevelt’s unemployment relief program with only minor amendments.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Market commentary</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Market wrap:</b><span style=""> A technical rally in the morning petered out by noon following omission of dividend on Rock Island Rwy.; this brought heavy selling into the rails; bears pressed for weak spots and "uncovered several"; moderate rally just before close. </span><b>Bond trading </b><span style="">featured sharp declines in Central European issues; German bonds hit record lows. Railroad issues reversed rally following Rock Island dividend announcement. Dow average of 40 corp. bonds closed at new yearly low. US govts. also declined.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><span style="">[Note: These guys sure run hot and cold Dept.] </span><b>"It has been </b><span style="">many months since sentiment in the financial district was as predominantly bearish as at present."</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#000000;">“<span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><b>Important selling” </b><span style="">reported in the bond market in the past few days; some of the liquidation is said to be institutional, particularly in the rails.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>A number of </b>investment trusts [similar to mutual funds] have almost stopped trading, largely because the market broke so rapidly in 1929, when buying was at a high level, “that the managers of the trusts had little opportunity to take such profits as were available and were not disposed to sell out at losses. ... Some companies, intended initially to be trading concerns, have become investors.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Homestake Mining's </b><span style="">recent sharp rally reflects popularity of gold stocks, which are benefitting from “relative value of gold in relation to the present deflated commodity prices.”</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>S. Strawn, </b><span style="">US Chamber of Commerce pres., says responsibility for recovery “rests upon business men rather than upon the govt.” Can’t expect immediate return to 1929 prosperity, but by “courage and determination,” can “begin now to work our way back.” Opposes unemployment dole, favors Hoover plan for community responsibility; calls for liberal contribution by all employers who can afford it to unemployment relief funds now being collected across the US.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Economic news and individual company reports</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>British emergency govt. </b><span style="">proposes sharp tax hikes and spending cuts to close estimates budget gap of $826M; taxes increased on incomes, gasoline, beer, etc.; cuts in public salaries and the dole. </span><b>Proposed new</b><span style=""> British income tax rate on single male earning $1,800 is $353.50 vs. $3.38 in US; on married couple with two children earning $5,000 it's $958.50 vs. $12.38. Top tax rate is 54%.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Renewed weakness </b>in marks is causing concern though transactions remain very limited; rumors are circulating in Berlin of “impending inflation,” and the Reichsbank may be forced to support marks again.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>US Steel </b><span style="">unfilled orders as of Aug. 31 were 3.169M tons vs. 3.405M July 31 and 3.580M a year ago; total lowest since mid-1927.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Money in circulation </b><span style="">Sept. 9 was up $57M to $5.092B, total Reserve Bank credit outstanding down $5M to $1.216B. Member banks in NY City report brokers' loans down $41M to new low of $1.325B; loans on securities to non-brokers down $6M to $1.694B. <span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Money in circulation </b><span style="">is up sharply from $4.533B at end of Aug. 1930; increase attributed to “hoarding of currency by individuals as a result of unsettled banking conditions.” </span></span></span></span></span><b>Analysis of</b> “all other” (commercial) loan figures shows recent rise in reported total is due to unusually large bill holdings; when these are excluded, remaining commercial loans are down sharply, to $1.888B as of July 31 vs. $2.236B at start of the year. </span></span></span></span></span> </p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Private long-term </b><span style="">investments by US citizens in foreign countries estimated at $14.9B - $15.4B as of end of 1930 (includes both securities and direct investment). Leading foreign country for investment is Canada, with $3.9B.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Chicago wholesale </b><span style="">gasoline market has weakened substantially after reopening of East Texas oil area, with reports of sales as low as 4 cents/gallon.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Oats prices </b><span style="">are lowest since 1897 despite smallest crop since 1921; “sellers’ strike” appears to be setting in similar to that in the Southwest winter wheat belt.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>Rock Island Rwy. </b><span style="">omitted dividend after cutting it twice this year; officers' salaries cut 5% - 20%.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Theatre</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style=""><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#000000;"><i>Just To Remind You </i><span style="font-style: normal;">- Playwright Owen Davis has “shaken an impatient fist in protest against organized ‘racketeering.’” Play is set in modest 52 St laundry of </span><i>Jimmie Alden</i><span style="font-style: normal;">, which is bombed and ruined because </span><i>Jimmie </i><span style="font-style: normal;">won’t pay $100 a month for protection. “The subject of the play, however, by broad implication, is NY; by broader implication, the country.” </span><i>Jimmie </i><span style="font-style: normal;">is encouraged by policeman </span><i>Dan Costigan</i><span style="font-style: normal;"> to stand up and testify against the racketeers; as he lies dying at the final curtain, Dan tells him “in earnest that the police have done the best they could. </span><i>Jimmie’s </i><span style="font-style: normal;">last angry words are to the effect that that ‘is not good enough.’” Play also assigns blame to a “lethargic citizenry.”</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><b>Joke</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#000000;">“<span style=""><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;">Are you positive that the prisoner is the man who stole your car?” “Well, I was until you cross-examined me. Now, I’m not even sure I had a car.”</span></span></span></span></span></p>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-60017208858627890782010-09-10T20:29:00.001-10:002010-09-10T20:31:32.810-10:00Thursday, September 10, 1931: Dow 128.43 -0.76 (0.6%)<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSccvcQSJa28_og8fZE5A_hviC2szMX5x2XCsDg-DmOVw2tv3Iw6hDrxuGbGr1o52SHHcJBiCozUL-sVnKJHizZowcfobF6W5spGDMAoBZViT312XgoXrkmgmILa0FSqKbCiSxTqh-I8j4/s1600/childs.JPG"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 207px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSccvcQSJa28_og8fZE5A_hviC2szMX5x2XCsDg-DmOVw2tv3Iw6hDrxuGbGr1o52SHHcJBiCozUL-sVnKJHizZowcfobF6W5spGDMAoBZViT312XgoXrkmgmILa0FSqKbCiSxTqh-I8j4/s400/childs.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5515539492050211714" border="0" /></a><br /><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Note: </b><span style="">I only have time for a short version today, and probably for a few weeks to come, due to heavy workload</span></span></span> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Assorted historical stuff</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Washington report: </b><span style="">Administration officials seem less hopeful than they were three months ago that a tax increase can be avoided at the next session of Congress. Officials still say no decision will be reached for 2 or 3 months. While “no one ... wants to increase taxes before an election,” and “everyone recognizes that increased taxes ... may hamper a revival of business,” the Administration apparently considers it more important to maintain US credit, which may become of vital importance in a crisis [note: as was exemplified by Germany and Britain within the previous few months].</span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Editorial noting </b>reports from Russia that grain farmers “must now go on short rations because their crop is unfortunately below original Five-Year Plan specifications. ... The Soviet govt. might consider whether it is not killing the goose that lays its golden eggs.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Market commentary</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NYSE trading </b>featured declines in a large number of leading shares; US Steel fell below 80 for the first time since 1921; some rallying took place from the lows, but it was “rather feeble.” <b>Paris stock </b>exchanges down sharply, continuing break that started last week; unfavorable factors include panicky conditions in other European markets including Zurich, Prague and Amsterdam, as well as British uncertainty and sharp breaks in int'l issues including Royal Dutch and Kreuger & Toll.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Public liquidation </b>has apparently been increasing in the past few sessions, judging by increased business through commission brokers. Selling attributed to stop-loss orders and “frightened liquidation” even by customers who own their stocks outright.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Observers increasingly </b>expect a strong effort to set up a test of the 121.70 June 2 bear market low on the industrials, since the recent decline has left “no clearly defined resistance level above the June 2 figure.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Twenty utility </b>stocks listed on the NYSE and Curb Exchange [later Amex] are selling for an average of 15 times earnings [note: I believe this was higher than many stocks in the general list due to stability of earnings.]</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>E.F. Hutton </b>notes that while some are bemoaning the drastic stock decline, a more optimistic way to look at it is that the stock-buying value of a dollar in Sept. 1929 has increased to about $2.85 in current purchasing power.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>G. Gibbs, </b>IT&T VP, predicts “slow but sure upward trend” in business after personal survey of conditions in 32 cities; says Pittsburgh and Detroit only cities outside NY where optimism hasn't started to reassert itself. Businessmen in other cities, while allowing business is running a little behind last year, believe conditions are sound, and cities are able to take care of depression victims without outside assistance.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Economic news and individual company reports</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>After difficult </b>negotiations, all creditor committees accept plan for 6-month extension of short-term credits to Germany.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Two large Geneva </b>banks merged, reportedly after Federal intervention, after continued withdrawals from all Geneva banks “despite the official manifesto of national financial stability in Switzerland and the offer of a Federal loan to the Canton of Geneva.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>30% dividend </b>is being mailed to Bank of US depositors; second dividend expected by early next year; final settlement estimated at 60%-70%.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> “<span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Organization of a general </b>bondholders' committee to represent “holders of defaulted bonds of numerous smaller Florida municipalities” is being considered.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NY Lt. Gov. Lehmann, </b><span style="">testifying at unemployment relief hearing,</span><b> </b>says NY faces $10M-$50M deficit, will be unable to balance budget without tax increases.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Texas legislature </b>meets in special session to consider cotton acreage curtailment law. Gov Sterling says leaves it to legislature to decide on best remedy. <b>Pres. Hoover</b> and Fed. Reserve officials reportedly discuss creating banking credits for export of cotton.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>NY Central </b>cut annual dividend rate to $4, the second cut this year.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Steel production </b>for week ended Monday was 28 1/2% vs. 31% previous week, a little under 32% two weeks ago, 56% in 1930, and 86% in 1929. Production slightly affected by Labor Day holiday.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Companies reporting </b>decent earnings: MacMarr Stores.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Movie</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i>This Modern Age </i>- Film starring Joan Crawford, at the Capitol. “Directed with a great deal of resource, ... but the story ... is as hoary with age as most scenarios about excessively modern youth seem to be these days.” Heroine experiences emotional crisis when she learns the magnificent Paris home in which she has been living with her mother, and “entertaining lavishly and drinking copiously with her gay young friends” doesn't belong to her mother but to a “Frenchman who is supporting her.” Happy ending ensues after some complications. “Miss Crawford's posing ... is becoming a bit too obvious ... but when she launches upon one of her big emotional scenes she can really act.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Joke</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;">"What a lovely sunset. The sun sinks lower and lower.” “That's all right. I have no shares in it.”</span></span></p>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-46090528835528953912010-09-09T18:46:00.000-10:002010-09-09T18:48:20.681-10:00Wednesday, September 9, 1931: Dow 129.19 -3.43 (2.6%)<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEZXqeRYIyIQ4KKEN3uvvWviBzYVsn1E47If5Ln6xxsat5PwK6GmR1dnUD4T_9D43wBupDH71tdvTwVYUYxFkiyyS1YffTXNm8auAaAh9jouhSe4aivtCFKuMi5B7wE-qDZJ_XA7Tm0Q4P/s1600/irving+trust.png"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 175px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEZXqeRYIyIQ4KKEN3uvvWviBzYVsn1E47If5Ln6xxsat5PwK6GmR1dnUD4T_9D43wBupDH71tdvTwVYUYxFkiyyS1YffTXNm8auAaAh9jouhSe4aivtCFKuMi5B7wE-qDZJ_XA7Tm0Q4P/s400/irving+trust.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5515142089176648610" border="0" /></a><br /><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><b>Assorted historical stuff</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>US Census </b><span style="">statistics reveal decrease in number of children in spite of growth in population over past decade; children under 1 year fell from 2.1% of the population to 1.8%, whilc people 45-64 rose from 16.1% to 17.4%, and those 65 and over rose from 4.7% to 5.4%.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Editorial </b><span style="">favoring Farm Board's 15M bushel sale of wheat to China as helping to reduce the huge surplus on hand without competing with producers of the current crop by selling to usual importing countries. In fact, advocates making "prices ... so low and terms of credit so super-liberal that the Chinese govt. would be induced to buy much more ..."</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Yet another editorial</b><span style=""><span style=""> on necessity for reparations and war debt adjustment; this one bemoans reports that Pres. Hoover may seek to link cuts in war debts and reparations with arms reductions, a political question which is likely to "drag its way through years of conference and negotiation" and which the US has a doubtful ability to influence; for example, France "has lately told us in unmistakable terms that only 'organization of the world for peace' will persuade her to so much as a moderation of her preparedness for eventualities." The debt question, on the other hand, must be tackled by July 1, 1932 to avoid a repeat of the recent crisis.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>British Parliament </b><span style="">convened in extraordinary session to consider drastic spending cuts and tax increases. Debate was caustic; Laborites vehemently attacked PM MacDonald's new coalition govt.; A. Henderson, Foreign Min. in the recently resigned MacDonald Labor govt., taunted MacDonald as a deserter. In his speech, MacDonald "caused something of a sensation" when he revealed how serious the financial crisis in August had been; said if loan had not been made, sterling "would have tumbled without control." Also said his own salary would be reduced $5,000 to $20,000; appealed to all classes to "go cheerfully ... over the hard, broken road along which our security, honor and well-being must be found." </span><b>Britain's </b><span style="">King George reduces own annuities 50,000 sterling from those granted by Parliament as "example in personal sacrifices as means of economizing during the present financial crisis."</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Barcelona Mayor </b><span style="">Ayguade says syndicalists have agreed to halt violence and resume work. </span><b>Spanish govt. </b><span style="">decrees citizens living in Spain dcan't hold foreign currency, in new move to steady peseta.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Italian Foreign Minister </b><span style="">Grandi proposes immediate armament truce among all countries who will participate in the 1932 world disarmament conference.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Montgomery-Ward </b><span style="">will shortly sell a new electric refrigerator called the Tru Kold, which has only 3 moving parts and doesn't interfere with radio reception.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Construction of </b><span style="">John D. Rockefeller's $250M Radio City development estimated to take 10M 8-hour workdays; over 56,000 employed directly and indirectly.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Nevada now </b><span style="">grants divorces after a 6-week residence by the plaintiff. On May 4, 1931, when the new law became effective, 83 divorces were granted in Reno. In spite of the required oath by the plaintiff that he or she has a permanent home in Nevada, successful plaintiffs generally board a transcontinental train immediately after being granted the divorce, and don't return ... until another divorce is desired.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>The cactus has </b><span style="">caught on in a major way in Poland; florists display dozens of cacti in all kinds and sizes, and instead of sending flowers one now sends the latest kind of cactus. At a recent wedding in Warsaw, the bride carried a cactus instead of the usual bridal bouquet. [Note: Hope no one tried to catch it.]</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><b>Market commentary</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Market wrap:</b><span style=""> Stocks opened under pressure upon return from the three-day holiday; weak spots included Steel, GM, and the rails. Selling picked up momentum in morning; stop-loss orders were caught in large numbers, and the tape ran two minutes behind. Selling lightened at mid-day but no rallies developed, and another wave of selling in the leading rails developed in the afternoon. </span><b>Bond prices </b><span style="">generally lower in active trading; heavy liquidation in many domestic issues; rails particularly pressured as institutions liquidated issues on concern they might lose legal status as savings bank investments. US govts. and highest-grade corp. steady. Weakness developed in German bonds. </span><b>Grains reacted </b><span style="">along with stocks; later wheat futures hit new season lows and corn fell sharply. Cotton steady. Cocoa futures hit new record lows. Copper held at record low of 7 1/2 cents, but with output running at least 40M pounds/month over consumption, outlook is poor.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>The Administration </b>responds to charges the US is hoarding gold, saying the buildup is caused by lack of confidence abroad rather than trade imbalances or action by the US; estimates flight of capital accounts for about $2B of the $5B in US gold holdings. Only solution is restoration of confidence abroad.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><b>Economic news and individual company reports</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>NY Banking Supt. </b><span style="">Broderick assesses Bank of US stockholders $25/share to make up $25.250M of the bank's liabilities.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>New corporate </b><span style="">bond offerings in August were lowest since April, 1919; total was $55.0M vs. $174.4M in July and $235.2M in Aug. 1930. There were no foreign corporate bond offerings. Corporate totals (foreign and domestic) for first 8 months were $2.436B vs. $5.068B in 1930 and $7.554B in 1929.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Louisiana Gov. </b><span style="">Huey P. Long says has assurances from 5 other Southern states they will enact "cotton prohibition" legislation provided that Texas votes total abolition of 1932 crop.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Germany is reportedly </b><span style="">close to concluding negotiations for a loan to buy 16.5M bushels of US wheat; terms will be 3 years at 4 1/2%.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Austrian budget </b><span style="">deficit for 1930 $1.8M, first deficit in 7 years.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>East Texas restarted </b><span style="">oil production Saturday on basis of 225 barrels per well per day; however, production in the area won't be allowed to exceed 400,000 barrels/day for 30-day period. W. Farish, Humble Oil pres., criticizes Texas Railroad Commission order as putting "a premium on unnecessary development" by not limiting drilling of new wells; predicts decision will lead to production of larger amount of East Texas oil than can be easily absorbed. </span><b>J. Kessler,</b><span style=""> managing dir. of Royal Dutch Shell, says political situation of large part of the world threatened by overproduction of commodities including oil; oil industry has "duty to the world as a whole" to end overproduction by international cooperation. Gasoline in the Chicago wholesale market weakened to 4 1/4 - 4 3/4 cents/gallon.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Rail freight </b><span style="">loadings for week ended Aug. 22 were 763,764, up 15,053 from prev. week, down 22.3% from 1930 week, and down 34.3% from 1929. </span><b>New Haven RR </b><span style="">cuts quarterly dividend to $1 from $1.50.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Holland Tunnel </b><span style="">traffic in August set a monthly record for the third time in 1931, with 1.224M vehicles.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Olds Motor</b><span style=""> reports August increase of 19% in domestic sales vs. 1930, an improvement from the 16% year-over-year increase in July.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Companies reporting decent earnings:</b><span style=""> Amer. Gas & Elec. (doing better than the average utility holding co. due to its "good fortune in providing electric service only"), Alaska Juneau Gold Mining.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(225, 119, 30);"><b>Jokes</b><span style="">:</span></span></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;">Customer - I chose a $25 suit, but you've charged me $26 on the bill. Tailor - Yes, I've added the postage for the threatening letters I shall have to send.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">"I spent $25,000 on my daughter's education, and now she's gone and married a fellow that makes $1,500 a year. What do you think of that?" "Well, it's 6% on your money, ain't it?"</span></span></span></span></p>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-81726214922387767672010-09-08T18:45:00.000-10:002010-09-08T18:46:57.588-10:00The Irregular Blather September 8, 1931<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvY4wd-7D1Zj1AR46DgNfB28wqD3N_QN0XfvVDbcDCvQOQAFbd-UC5pNF7XKBERgV7-k_ErLJoyaZhGf8Y9NsfxUGeKjm00VUQyWER8j8Od4qGTSS5PcIEwnn_hPNdneqTK1_YQw6fpelN/s1600/check+signer.png"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 250px; height: 368px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvY4wd-7D1Zj1AR46DgNfB28wqD3N_QN0XfvVDbcDCvQOQAFbd-UC5pNF7XKBERgV7-k_ErLJoyaZhGf8Y9NsfxUGeKjm00VUQyWER8j8Od4qGTSS5PcIEwnn_hPNdneqTK1_YQw6fpelN/s400/check+signer.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5514770686414421954" border="0" /></a><br /><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><b>No Journal </b>was published Tuesday, September 8, 1931, following Labor Day. See you tomorrow back in 1931!</span>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-66713549478968404432010-09-07T13:38:00.002-10:002010-09-07T13:39:33.610-10:00Monday, September 7, 1931: Market closed for Labor Day weekend<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEja_T1ovuO37Lh2KbMFrDf8YH-TmdODWEakkk7QYlBKTJp3nY6geRy-1-22-eYTsNDZRjTLCCXhMGpMjgVnzejaqWreWRdRbW4BYOuVoEcduusdKra7Zz4GfQ9R0jXjsz0IQ0WqeM9P2_KI/s1600/bank+of+st+louis.png"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 250px; height: 378px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEja_T1ovuO37Lh2KbMFrDf8YH-TmdODWEakkk7QYlBKTJp3nY6geRy-1-22-eYTsNDZRjTLCCXhMGpMjgVnzejaqWreWRdRbW4BYOuVoEcduusdKra7Zz4GfQ9R0jXjsz0IQ0WqeM9P2_KI/s400/bank+of+st+louis.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5514320396582529890" border="0" /></a><br /><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;">No Journal was published Monday, September 7, 1931, Labor Day. I'm putting the week in review for last week in today's blog for consistency with other weeks.</span></span> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Week in review</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b>Stocks suffered </b>declines throughout the list, attributed to failure of expected seasonal fall business improvement to materialize. The Dow rail average hit a new bear market low in Wednesday's trading, and finished the week below 65, the lowest level since 1898; this disturbed sentiment since the rails have led the declines in the major bear market of the past two years. Unfavorable factors for the rails included bankruptcy of the Florida East Coast Rwy., dividend suspension by the Lehigh Valley, dividend uncertainties at other major rails, and poor freight loadings reports.</p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b>Disappointment on </b>seasonal business trends centered on the steel industry, which had been confidently expected to show some increase in production as September approached but instead dropped back slightly to start the month; this disappointed even the more conservative industry observers. US Steel hit a new bear market low below 83, the lowest level in a decade.</p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b>Feature of the bond </b>week was outstanding success of the Treasury offerings of $800M 24-year 3% bonds and $300M one-year 1 1/8% certificates at par; large oversubscription refuted criticism that rate on the long-term bonds was too low. US govts. were steady to firm throughout the week. Municipal bonds quiet but firm. <b>Domestic corp. </b>list featured sharp swing in second-grade rail bonds, which rallied early in the week but fell later; however, closing prices were substantially higher than the yearly lows established last week. High-grade industrial bonds bucked weakness elsewhere to rise on the week, while public utilities were steady. <b>European govts. </b>were generally steady, though German bonds fell Thursday when the stock exchange there reopened. <b>S. American govts. </b>erratically lower; unfavorable news included partial Brazilian moratorium and defaults by Chile, Peru, and state of Pernambuco, Brazil.</p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b>Wheat futures </b>fell into new low ground. Corn worked irregularly lower. Cotton “developed easier tendencies,” falling below 7 cents again to start the week but experiencing small rallies thereafter.</p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b>Foreign currency </b>market quiet and somewhat steadier. <b>British Treasury</b> reportedly has dipped into the new $400M US-French credit to defend sterling; it was also reported, but not officially confirmed, that “the British Prudential Assurance Co., together with a number of other insurance cos. and investment trusts, has mobilized some 100M sterling of securities in NY for the benefit of the British Treasury.” <b>Berlin stock exchange </b>reopened for trading Thursday under strict control; declines were heavy and orders unbalanced on the Thursday but appeared to settle down on Friday. <b>Swiss francs </b><span style="">rose steadily; “brokers are at a loss to furnish a satisfactory explanation for the movement in Swiss as ... the only reason for transfer of funds to that point is safety.” On the other hand, another safe-haven currency, Dutch guilders, surprisingly diverged from Swiss francs and declined.</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b>Money markets </b>passed through another dull week; rates were unchanged in spite of rise in currency circulation of $255M since July 29, to about $5B; Reserve credit outstanding rose $276M in the same period. “Funds are still so plentiful as to be able to soak up any unusual demand ... The credit structure is apparently in such a flexible condition as to be able to absorb huge expansion without affecting money rates materially.” US gold holdings rose $6M to a new record of $4.998B.</p>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-44220366032962278552010-09-06T15:57:00.001-10:002010-09-06T15:58:54.209-10:00The Irregular Blather September 6, 1931<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPqrs2RCpsqQczR6d3c_FB0-QVeXrtckIO2Lb5iqCOt_PJFxQXEXOhHhMKkdEiVQgZ9C-aPkqrnWhpb9IXr3YfMSFIMKrnEPPWWm3_ltLH2hiFN2MOITQTWTaAKJm0RjY2epFALpsi_Wo-/s1600/in+1907.JPG"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 306px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPqrs2RCpsqQczR6d3c_FB0-QVeXrtckIO2Lb5iqCOt_PJFxQXEXOhHhMKkdEiVQgZ9C-aPkqrnWhpb9IXr3YfMSFIMKrnEPPWWm3_ltLH2hiFN2MOITQTWTaAKJm0RjY2epFALpsi_Wo-/s400/in+1907.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5513985184818660978" border="0" /></a><br /><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><b>No Journal </b>was published Sunday, September 6, 1931. See you tomorrow back in 1931!</span>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1500499634306365143.post-64423887888714842342010-09-05T16:54:00.004-10:002010-09-06T18:14:57.905-10:00Saturday, September 5, 1931: Dow 132.62 -0.52 (0.4%)<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFjmBuRB96E0mOBEVU1-un5yybvOas8G9ZlwgOgmcAA9YX7nGXU4fe0KFzTGL_ORqXm_VlF1DLM8LVjNnRi83V8vGi0_oWHz4bCUCEPVYI22uW2P_4E5uBauOq2gmpnQMDMicJe6s8IxS0/s1600/WineBrickVineGloAdsm.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 309px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFjmBuRB96E0mOBEVU1-un5yybvOas8G9ZlwgOgmcAA9YX7nGXU4fe0KFzTGL_ORqXm_VlF1DLM8LVjNnRi83V8vGi0_oWHz4bCUCEPVYI22uW2P_4E5uBauOq2gmpnQMDMicJe6s8IxS0/s400/WineBrickVineGloAdsm.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5514020279922687746" border="0" /></a><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Assorted historical stuff</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Editorial: </b>News that the $800M 20-year Treasury bond offering at 3% has already been oversubscribed is unsurprising, but will again be hailed by proponents of a huge Federal “prosperity loan” of several billion dollars as evidence investors stand ready to finance such a project. This would be a mistake; the demand for US govt. bonds reflects an abundance of capital seeking unquestioned safety; this status would be lost if the Treasury borrowed unmeasured sums to invest in prosperity “schemes.” Other departments of the bond market give ample evidence of the market's reaction to any perceived risk.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Editorial praising </b>common sense of the New Hampshire Att'y. Gen. Davis in not classifying “grape block” as illegal under the state's Prohibition law (which predates the Federal one) even after the recent “grotesque Federal raid in NY.” [Note: grape block <a href="http://australianwinecompanion.blogspot.com/2010/08/winemaking-during-prohibition.html">was apparently</a> a solid brick of dried grapes, in some cases sold complete with a pack of yeast and a stern warning to keep the yeast away after dissolving the brick in water, lest the mixture turn into wine. This was not a small-scale business - according to the link, California grape growers increased their acreage about 700% in the first 5 years of Prohibition.] Davis found that he couldn't classify a substance containing no alcohol as intoxicating - while it does become intoxicating after some time when mixed with other ingredients, the same could be said for grains, apples, grapes, etc., whose sale is not therefore forbidden by law. “A little leaven of New Hampshire logic might have a salutary effect in the Dept. of Justice in Washington.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Interesting letter </b>from a reader. Calls T. Woodlock “the nation's foremost German 'reliever'” and argues against permanent cancellation of reparations, while accepting temporary suspension for economic emergency. Contrasts way the 4 main participants in the World War handled their war debts. the US and Britain maintained value of their currency, and are highly taxed to pay war debts. France “took a more rational view” and allowed the franc to depreciate, eliminating most of her war debt; it is now doing relatively best of the world's nations. Germany, by contrast, entirely eliminated her war debts outside of reparations (through hyperinflation), and took in several billion dollars of good money to boot from people who bought marks on the way down. Is it fitting now to “saddle our people and industries with Germany's share of the war cost,” putting her industries on a “much better footing than our own?” Under normal conditions, Germany would easily be able to afford reparations; permanent relief would make her “financially able to rebuild her huge war machine for the next war.” <b>Woodlock in response </b>argues that it's precisely keeping “the German people indefinitely in a condition of economic vassalage or psychological servitude” that invites “an explosion that will wreck not only Europe but also the civilized world.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>General strike </b>in Barcelona reportedly has weakened position of the Republican govt.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Premiers of Australian </b>states decide on compulsory conversion (to lower rate) of $51.5 in bonds whose holders had refused to voluntarily convert. A total of $2.435B has been voluntarily converted.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Egyptian Premier </b>Sidky Pasha says Egypt faces appalling economic crisis which will worsen unless world cotton-producing countries work out common policy.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>British coalition </b>govt. now consists of 30 Conservatives, 12 Liberals, and 8 Laborites after appointment of 31 ministers outside cabinet.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Farm Board agrees </b>on sale to China of 15M bushels of surplus wheat; will be on credit, and to be used exclusively for famine relief. <b>China and Mexico</b> at odds over anti-Chinese movement in Mexican states of Sonora and Sinaloa.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>British attain </b>speed of 405 mph in trials for the Schneider Cup air race scheduled for Sept. 12; France and Italy withdraw.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Market commentary</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Market wrap:</b> Stocks opened with further moderate selling, again concentrating on the rails; NY Central fell to a new post-1921 low, and leading industrials were unsettled by a new bear market low in Steel. However, on the threshold of a three-day trading holiday over Labor Day, trading became increasingly dull as the session went on; some short-covering became apparent from traders evening up before the holiday, and the market showed some recovery from the morning lows, though the rally failed to pick up momentum. Some selling broke out in the final hour in public utilities including IT&T and Amer. & Foreign Power, but didn't spread to the industrials. <b>Bond trading </b>more active; prices irregular, with alternating declines and rallies in many issues. US govts. notably steady. High grade industrial bonds have gone against the general trend, showing rallying tendencies in recent days. <b>Wheat, corn</b> and cotton up moderately.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Reports are again </b>circulating of substantial selling of US stocks from abroad; “some of the important financial interests in England” are reportedly bearish.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>August was the </b>smallest month in NYSE volume since May 1926; at that time there were 60% fewer shares and 20% fewer issues listed. The Dow averages showed an unusual divergence; the industrials gained 4.02 to 139.41, while the rails fell 5.26 to 68.18.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Several important </b>dividend meeting are upcoming, including Western Union, New Haven RR, NY Central, IT&T, and Westinghouse. Western Union fell sharply Friday on reports their dividend might be cut. <b>Dividend uncertainties</b> are negatively affecting the market, but “the most depressing influence undoubtedly has been the failure of seasonal acceleration of business ... to put in an appearance.” Stocks showed resistance to bad news in July and August, “clinging to the hope that the autumn would bring an upturn ... Hence, considerable disappointed selling broke out when September set in without any visible signs of trade improvement.”</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Economic news and individual company reports</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="color:#000000;"><b>German stock </b>exchange moved toward normality Friday, on its second day after reopening; trading was quieter and buying orders were as large as selling, allowing almost all selling orders to be executed. Exchange is likely to allow several quotes per day on each stock soon. <b>Signing of agreement </b>on extension of short-term credits to Germany delayed yet again; German bankers insist central banks agree to 6-month extension; "despite endless exchange of cables," no compromise found. <b>German business </b>failures in August were heavy, with total liabilities doubling from August 1930. <b>Most foreign </b>currencies declined against the dollar, while Swiss francs continued to advance.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Bradstreet's </b>weekly reports some optimism based on seasonal upturn in some lines and hopes for improvement in others. Retail buying stimulated by back-to-school buying and start of fall styles; prices notably lower. Closeout sales of summer goods continue in many places, with goods drastically marked down. Women's and children's clothing, along with hats and shoes, are finding demand; household hardware and electric appliances increasing; fall clothing for men appears quiet.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Net operating income </b>of class 1 rails in the first 7 months was $295.1M, an annual rate of return of 2.1% on property investment. Total was down 35.9% from 1930. 35 class 1 rails operated at a loss, while only the International Great Northern had higher income than in 1930, benefitting from East Texas oil activity.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>New bond offerings </b>remained very low this week, at $7.5M vs. $8.2M last week and $67.2M in 1930. All offerings this week were of municipal bonds. Rumors of flotation of large issues in the near future have died away.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>East Texas oil </b>area to reopen today, under supervision of State Militia. Output of field under the order estimated at 400,000 barrels/day. Oklahoma Gov. Murray expressed disappointment, saying "That will never do. They are losing their fight after they had it won." <b>More advances </b>in gasoline and crude oil prices took place in various US locations, mostly in the East.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Ford cut August </b>vacation short by one week to resume manufacture of Model A; move necessitated by abnormally low inventories in spite of subnormal business.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Company reports </b>since July 1: 196 companies reported higher earnings vs. 1930 and 608 lower; 745 dividends unchanged, 17 increased, 133 cut.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Companies reporting decent earnings:</b> Electric Power & Light, Household Finance Corp., Tobacco Products Corp.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#e1771e;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><b>Theatre</b>:</i></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i>Cloudy With Showers</i> - Rather saucy-sounding comedy set at women's college; a "young male instructor ... is daringly challenged for his views on women and sex" by an adventurous, yet logical pupil. Strangely, the play changes midstream from "saucy comedy, gaily intellectualized" to a "farcical mystery melodrama" when a murder is commited next door to the "strictly dishonorable" room in a roadside speakeasy where the pair have taken refuge from a storm. Happy ending ensues as the murderer is captured and the pair falls in love. "Can be highly recommended ... to people who are sure they will not be shocked when <i>Miss Critchlow</i> yanks off her dress in the speakeasy, very much in the manner in which a young woman once upon a time would have stamped her foot."</span></span></p>ikedimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08850614066530391040noreply@blogger.com0