A Quick History of Netbooks

You can’t divine the future without an understanding of where have been and where you are.  So let’s  do a quick recap on netbook history.

Asus Eee PC 700-Series Netbook

While the inspiration for netbooks can be traced to the One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) initiative, the first commercial netbook was the Asus Eee PC 700-series.  With a 7-inch display, underpowered Celeron M processor, 2-4 GB solid state drive, a tiny keyboard and a price around $300, it was an instant hit when it was first shipped in early 2008.

All of the early netbooks had Linux operating systems.  When it became obvious that netbooks were going to be hugely popular, Microsoft responded by announcing a special licensing program of Windows XP for Ultra-Low Cost PCs (April 2008).  To qualify for this special XP license, Microsoft placed restrictions on the hardware.  Over time, Microsoft has expanded the list of qualifying hardware.

Around mid-year 2008, netbooks with Intel Atom processors were introduced.  These netbooks were much more powerful, ran cooler and required less power.  Intel also placed restrictions on the hardware in which Atom processors could be used.

Why do Microsoft and Intel restrict netbook hardware?  Profits, of course.  Microsoft is rumored to be making only $15 per netbook XP license.  Intel makes a lot less profit from Atom processors and chipsets compared to full laptop CPUs.

Today’s Netbook Market

Our short history lesson explains why almost every netbook has the same basic configuration: Intel Atom N270/280 processor, Intel GMA 500/950 graphics, 160 GB hard drive, 1 GB RAM, etc.

Netbooks have been artificially constrained to these specs for over a year.  It is obvious to us that this situation can’t and won’t last much longer.

But before we start exploring the future, we need to observe a few other realities in the current situation.

The initial wave of netbooks that were so hugely successful were made by Asus, Acer and MSI.  The big laptop OEMs begrudgingly added netbooks to their portfolios to protect market share, while compaining loudly that profit margins were too small in netbooks.

With everyone jumping into the netbook fray during an economic downturn, we also have a glut of inventory in the market that netbook makers are working to burn off.

Many attempts have been made over the past year to move the price point up without success.  The bottom of the netbook price range has actually dropped from around $300 to around $275.   Buyers seem willing to pay up to $400 for quality and/or special features.  But anything over $450 was passed over by most consumers.

One other note, over the past year, Microsoft successfully beat off the Linux threat and once again has full control of the PC operating system market.

Other Market Forces

Before moving to our predictions, we need to recognize a few other forces at work in the market that may have some influence on future events.

Most notably missing from the current netbook products are AMD and NVIDIA components.

AMD was caught flat-footed by the success of the Intel Atom product line and spent much effort bashing netbooks (they clearly did not -- and maybe still don’t -- understand netbooks). Here is a video example of AMD’s take on netbooks:

AMD’s attempt to join the party with their NEO processor has been largely unsuccessful.

NVIDIA has wanted to play but has been frozen out by Intel’s forceful bundling of the CPU and GPU.  Recently, Samsung and Lenovo were rumored to have lost their discount on Atom processors because they offered netbooks containing NVIDIA graphics chips.   (We think there is an antitrust pot of gold awaiting NVIDIA down the road).  In an effort to find traction, NVIDIA has developed a CPU/GPU combination named Tegra, based on an ARM processor design, that will offer improved video performance compared to the Intel Atom.

Google decided that they wanted to play in the smartphone business and introduced the Android operating system (based on Linux).  A group of netbook users quickly had the new OS running on an Eee PC.  Several netbook makers have hinted at plans to introduce netbooks based on Android.

Google Chrome OS Logo

Google has since announced that they are working on a new netbook operating system named Chrome OS.

Wireless carriers have begun carrying netbooks pre-configured with 3G chips offered at low-prices to customers purchasing a cellular data service contract.  These large powerhouses are accustomed to deep hardware discounts with exclusive rights and/or private branding of the hardware they sell.  Those terms are unacceptable to their new laptop OEM partners who are accustomed to being in the driver’s seat.  The arrangement creates rather strange and uneasy bedfellows.

A new group of producs dubbed “smartbooks” have appeared at recent trade shows and press releases.  Smartbooks are basically scaled-up smartphones/PDAs (built on smartphone processors and operating systems).  While a number of different form factors have been demonstrated (screens from 5″ to 10″, touchscreens vs. keyboards, etc.) there are several consistent themes:  price points significantly below netbooks,  smooth HD video (720p or better) playback, all-day battery life and built-in broadband cellular support.

One last note about the current market situation, Steve Jobs is back to work at Apple.  His primary focus is said to be the new Tablet PC that Apple is preparing to introduce.

Our Predictions

So, where does this all lead?

Windows 7 Logo

Microsoft will introduce Windows 7 in October.  They will offer a netbook version that will be somewhat crippled and that Microsoft will exert pressure on users to purchase an upgrade.

We also expect that even the netbook or Starter Edition will be more expensive than XP, adding about $25 to the cost of a netbook.

Based on what we have seen of Windows 7, we believe it will be a big hit and Microsoft will be able to retire XP in short order.

Intel’s next-generation Atom processors (project named Pine Trail) will see their way into the market around the first of the year.  The advantage they offer is integration of the graphics processor (GPU) into the CPU, which will yield improved video performance while drawing less power.  We think it is a no-brainer that the new Intel Atom processors will be successful.

Desperate to differentiate their products, netbook manufacturers will finally break the current netbook mold.  Starting in the fourth quarter and really exploding in 2010, we will see a plethora of new netbooks and ultralight laptops in the $300 -- $700 price range.  So much so that the line between what is a netbook and what is a laptop will become completely blurred.

While the PC makers are totally engrossed in trying to profit and protect marketshare in the netbook space, smartbooks will surprise them by creating a whole new market niche in the $200 -- $400 range.

Smartbooks will arrive in a wide variety of sizes and flavors.  We expect the most popular to be smaller tablet-style (think iPhone on steroids), but we also expect versions with keyboards that resemble current laptops.  Both will run some flavor of Linux operating system (Android, Chrome OS, Moblin, etc.).

Smartbooks will be marketed in two channels.  Wireless carrier like AT&T, Verizon and Sprint will drop their current netbooks and offer private-labeled smartbooks at prices just above smartphones. Here is a promotional video from Qualcomm (a longtime player in the cellular device market).

Other smartbooks will find their way to retailers.  The mini-laptop style will be sold in direct competition with netbooks.  The tablet style will offer an interesting alternative.

Final Prediction -- Apple Wins

Our final prediction is that Apple’s much-rumored tablet will be a smartbook.  We predict that this new product (iPad?) will follow in the footsteps of iPod and iPhone and take the market by storm.

That is what our crystal ball says.

Right or wrong, we think this should be fun to watch!

We are almost sure that we won’t be 100% right.  You must have some ideas of your own.  Drop us a comment below and tell us what you see as the future for netbooks.

Related posts:

1. Netbooks Have Killed Off UMPCs
2. Google Android To Push XP Off Netbooks?
3. Nvidia’s Netbook Vision

Samsung N310

Just click on the link below to see more details.

Win a new Samsung Go from Buy.com!

Related posts:

1. Samsung N310 now available.
2. Samsung N310 coming next week
3. Samsung calling the N310 the Samsung Go

I must say that I’m very impressed with the Toshiba NB205.  I’ve personally always favored the Samsung Netbooks.  This will be my first personal netbook that is not a Samsung.

Check out the video and stay tuned for a review in the near future.

Related posts:

1. Toshiba mini NB205 Netbooks In Stock
2. mini NB205
3. Acer Aspire One AOD250 Unboxing Video

Related posts:

1. Eee PC 1008HA Unboxing Video
2. Video: Unboxing Our Asus Eee PC 1000HE
3. Unboxing the Samsung N120

BuyDig.com has cut their price on the HP Mini 110 160GB 6-Cell XP WWAN by about $10 to $419.00 with FREE shipping.  This is the model that has the broadband cellular access built-in.

CompareHP Mini 110 160GB 6-Cell XP WWAN
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The deals in the above widgets are updated automatically. So if you visit us a few days down the road, the prices displayed may not match the article. That means you got here too late. So, why not subscribe to our RSS feed and stay up to date.

Related posts:

1. Falling Netbook Prices – 8/13/09
2. Falling Netbook Prices – 8/14/09
3. Falling Netbook Prices – 8/16/09

Earlier we reviewed Google Android as a netbook OS.  We also published tutorials on installing Android and Moblin on bootable USB memory sticks so that you can test these OSs without actually installing them on your hard drive.

Today I’m going to show you Moblin 2.0 Beta running on an Asus Eee PC 1008HA.

Booting Moblin

I decided to install Moblin 2.0 to the hard drive of the Asus Eee PC 1008HA to give the operating system a true run.  The boot time was about 45 seconds.  Not bad for a Linux based OS (note that I did not install the quick boot option).

Once I was booted into the Operating System I come right into the MyZone Screen.

Now you may notice that the MyZone main screen has a lot of information on it.  Once you configure your RSS feeds, Twitter Account, Etc… you will see that the right panel will display all the latest updates.

The middle pane shows all the latest media, web pages, and other similar items that you have recently viewed.  Last is the left pane which holds your calendar entries and current tasks.

MyZone gives you a quick and easy view of your mobile life right on the main screen.  This is a very nice feature of Moblin.

Exploring Moblin

Moblin is built on top of a Linux kernel. You can access the console through the Application Zone.

As you can see you will have access to all your typical Linux commands, and this will give you the capability to install any Linux-based applications as well as full capability to configure the system to your heart’s content.

You can access all of Moblin’s applications through the Application Zone.  In the picture below you will see the Zone Menu at the top of the screen.

You can navigate through all of the standard zones by moving your mouse across the tabs at the top of the screen.

Managing the Network

I found that managing your network connections was a snap in Moblin.  Clicking on the wireless icon on the top tool bar will open your network management application.

I simply clicked on my wireless network and added my WPA key.  This took seconds to connect up and start browsing the Internet.

Media

Mobin has your typical media player and picture viewer.

This beta version was missing a number of codecs.  I tried playing some divx, and wmv files and had no luck.

Moblin installed a sample video,  which played well on the Asus 1008HA (although it was a bit grainy).

Here is a picture of what the media library looks like.

Games

Now what would an Operating System be without some games to kill your free time.  Moblin has added a handful of games to make your idle time more enjoyable.  Here are a few pictures of the Frozen Bubble 2 game.

Summary

The Moblin user interface is simple and easy enough for any user to learn.  Gone are the spooky days when it took a real hacker to know how to even use Linux.

However, the Moblin OS is that is centered around the mobile user.  It does not attempt to be a comprehensive replacement for a typical laptop OS.

If you are looking for a full-blown Operating System that does everything  Windows XP or Windows 7 does then you will be disappointed.

Moblin is based around social networking sites like Twitter and Facebook.  You will also find build in messengers like Google Talk, Yahoo Messenger, and MSN Messenger.

Moblin is definitely aimed for your social butterflies.

The beta was noticably slow when running some applications.  The Internet Browser was also very slow when loading web pages.  I am sure that everything will be optimized before the production release.

Overall,  I’m impressed with Moblin.  I am happy to see something really different coming to the netbook world.  It will be very interesting to whether customers embrace Moblin when it is finally released.

What are your thoughts?  Will netbook buyers flock to an operating system focused on enhancing the social networking experience – or will they want their netbook to operate like a normal laptop?

Related posts:

1. Moblin v2.0 beta
2. Moblin recently updated the 2.0 Beta image for Netbooks
3. How to test Moblin from a USB stick

In my bag you will find:

• Dell Inspiron Mini 12 with the upgraded Atom Z530 processor with Ubuntu Linux 9.03 in a Waterfield custom sleeve
• Lenovo Thinkpad X61 which is an ultraportable with a dual-core T7300 processor running Windows XP
• UM175 USB Air Card
• LG Slim USB External Super Multi DVD Rewriter (only added to my bag when needed)
• iPod 80GB

Steve carries:

• Samsung N120 upgraded to 2 GB of RAM running Windows XP
• MiFi 2200 Intelligent Mobile Hotspot
• Zune

Other family members also have netbooks:

• Stephanie (my wife): Acer Aspire One A150 running Windows XP
• Tracy (Steve’s wife: MSI Wind U100 running Windows XP
• Rick (my son): HP Mini 1000 running Windows XP
• Art (another son): Acer Aspire One D250 running Windows XP

At the moment, we also have an Asus Eee PC 1008HA that we are reviewing.

I also have an older Acer Aspire One A110 running Ubuntu Linux that I use on occasion.

Related posts:

1. Windows 7 – Are you looking forward to it?
2. Video: Windows 7 On Samsung N120
3. Selecting My New Netbook, Part 1

In my mind,there are several key factors that are most important to consider when it comes to selecting the right netbook to fit your needs. I’m going to break these down to four important steps when you do your shopping.

Step 1: Processor

When selecting your netbook does speed make a big difference? This is where Intel rules the netbook processor kingdom. In the table below you will see several different processors.

The most popular Processors on netbooks are the Intel Atom N270 and N280 processor. Both processors are very low voltage and give you some of the best performance while saving battery life.

The Intel Atom Z520/Z530 processors are sometimes used in netbooks with the 11-inch or 12-inch displays. The main reason for this is that it helps extend battery while using a larger display. The disadvantage to the Intel Z520 processor is it lacks speed compared to the N270 and N280 processors. I would personally recommend a netbook with an Intel Atom N270 or N280 processor (the performance difference between the two is almost imperceivable).

HP was one of the first manufacturers to use the AMD Athlon Neo MV-40 processor in a netbook with their dv2 model. Most reviewers were critical of the price/performance ratio and the poor battery life.

Step 2: Battery

There are two big decisions when it comes to picking a battery. Do I want three-cell or six-cell battery? The difference between the two is significant.  Six-cell batteries give you about double the life compared to three-cell models.  The extra battery life does not come free, it adds about 1/3 to 1/2 pound to the weight to your netbook.

Keep in mind that all six-cell batteries are not created equal. A good example of this is the Asus Eee PC 1005HA, which offers two models with different 6-cell batteries. The Asus 1005HA-V has a 48Wh six-cell battery that lasts 8.5 hours. Now if you compare this to the Asus 1005HA-P model it has a 63Wh six-cell battery that lasts 10.5 hours for an extra $40.00.

Just because it comes with a six-cell battery doesn’t always mean it’s going to last 8 to 10 hours. Some models will only last 4 or 5 hours. It is best to check reviews for real-world battery test results rather than relying on manufacturer claims.

Step 3: Keyboard

This is something that is very important to me. You will hear alot of talk about 93% full keyboard size, or 85% full keyboard. When it comes to the xx% full keyboard size don’t be fooled, they are not all the same!

Make sure you look at the pictures of the keyboard layout.

Some keyboards don’t have the function keys along the top. Other netbooks have a half-sized right shift key that is often placed where it makes you very prone to typos. Sometimes you will find the the Windows Start key does not exist or has been moved to the opposite side of the keyboard.

I think Samsung and Acer have some of the best keyboards in the netbook market no matter which model you choose.  Toshiba joins the ranks of netbook makers who provide excellent keyboards with their mini NB205.

Step 4: Display

What size display do I go with? There are 3 main sizes in the netbook market at the moment. The 9-inch, 10-inch, and 11.6-inch displays. The 9-inch displays are now more of a thing from the past. Dell recently discontinued the Dell Mini 9 netbook.

The most popular display is the 10-inch netbook. These units usually come with a display that supports resolutions up to 1024 x 600 or 1024 x 576.  We are just beginning to see a few with 1366 x 768 resolution.  Some reviewers have complained that the images are so sharp and tiny that it is uncomfortable to use for any period of time.

The 11.6-inch displays support resolutions up to 1366 x 768, which is good enough to display high-definition video. Apparently, this resolution on a larger screen is easier on the eyes.

Assistance In Locating the Right Netbook

If you use these guidelines to decide which features are most important to you, then you will increase the probability of being really satisfied with your new netbook.

As you venture out to find the netbook that fits you best, we have a number of different features to assist you.

Be sure to read Searching for Netbooks, which will quickly show you all the different ways you can find information about netbooks.

When you are ready to make a purchase, be sure you make use of our compare prices pages. There you can find the vendors who have it in stock at the lowest price.

One last idea, if you subscribe to our news feed you can receive all of our daily articles including our Deals of the Day and Falling Netbook Prices articles.  Our newsletter also contains information that will assist you.  You can subscribe to the newsletter using the form in the sidebar.

Related posts:

1. What one feature on a netbook is most important to you?
2. Which Netbook Is Right For Me?
3. Acer Aspire One D250 unboxed

Searching Articles and Pages

If you are looking for information in articles or pages on our site, then use the search box at the top, right of any page.

Search Box - Articles Tab

With the “Articles” tab chosen (the default), enter your search keywords and press the ENTER key.

Our search engine will return a list of articles matching your search words. Each article will contain a brief excerpt of the contents.  Click on any article title to read the entire article.

Searching Our Product Database

If you are looking for products that with a specific feature, then use the “Products” tab on the search box.

Search Box - Products Tab

In the above example, a listing of all products containing N280 processors will be returned.  Clicking on any of the listings will take you to the product page where more information is available.

Searching By Price Range

Let’s say you want to restrict your search to netbooks in a certain price range.  In that case, choose the “Price Range” tab on our search box and using terms like: “< x”, “> x” or “between x and y” to describe your price range.

Search Box - Articles Tab

The example shown above will return a list of products which are available for less than $300.00.  Clicking on any item on the list will take you to the product page where you can see more information.

Browsing Our Product Database

If you prefer to simply peruse our database of netbooks, you can do so by choosing “Browse Products” from the menu bar in the header of any page.

Browse Products Menu Item

This will display our Browse Products page, which lists all of the different brands of netbooks.  From here, you can drill down to the product families within each brand.  Then, you can find the models of netbooks in each family – which will lead to product pages containing detailed information for each model.

Summary

We have worked to provide different ways to easily find the information you need to select the netbook that is best for you.  If you have suggestion on how we can make things better, please let us know.

Related posts:

1. Search for Netbooks By Price Range
2. Lenovo Announces Netbooks
3. What Is Future for Netbooks?