(Updated 4/25/13) -

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(video thanks to 1470thefoxallentown)

Here are some key quotes from the post-draft press conference with coach Reid:

- 00:19 We felt Danny was as good a football player as there was in the draft

I highlight this comment because shows us that the traits used to describe Danny Watkins are core skills to Andy Reid. Based on the comment,  could it be said that Watkins is close to an ideal lineman?

-00:52 Danny played left tackle at Baylor, was very productive there, and he’ll bring a toughness, which I know the city of Philadelphia…they thrive on that. He brings a toughness, and a blue collar attitude to that offensive line.

-1:46 …when [Danny] stepped on the football field, he really took to the game and has been so productive. He’d take the best defensive end in the draft, or outside linebacker, however you want to look at him, the draft pick Denver took from Texas A&M [Von Miller], he had great film against him and he played a [great] game against him and that was just one of many great games….

Productivity against pro draft prospects is high on the list for Mr. Reid. He wants to see the player perform at a high level. You will see throughout the interview that he is looking for great football players, not necessarily great athletes.

-2:26 What you see is just a [great] football player, both in the run game and the pass game. I can’t tell you how happy we are to have him be a part of our program.

-3:17 (When asked about Watkins’ future position)- The nice thing about this is he started at left tackle. He went to the Senior Bowl and played both guard positions, and so that gives us some flexibility there. If we want to move people around, we can move people around. He can step in at right guard, he can play right tackle, even though he didn’t do it there. And like we do with all our linemen, we’ll probably teach him how to play center in there, too. He’s that kind of athlete where he can do that.

The comment on versatility and flexibility is huge in the context of projecting the number one pick. Reid appreciates the value of having interchangeable linemen. It lowers the risk of failure and protects against depth issues. Also, note how Senior Bowl performance was brought into the mix. It will not be the only time the topic comes up in the interview. It further establishes that production is of critical importance.

-4:27 (on the value of placed on high character) This is a guy that is a tough, tough guy. Now, he’s also a good football player. And he’s got phenomenal character, on and off the field. He’s a class act, but the thing that jumps out at you is he is a relentless worker and one tough nut, and I like that.

Besides production, maybe the most frequently used descriptor in this conversation is “toughness.”

-8:03 (Another question from media about future position for Watkins)- This is a neat thing, I’ve got flexibility with all of these guys. We got a group of guys that played tackle in college. One nice thing is they can move all around. Todd’s {Herremans] played both sides, Danny’s played both sides, Todd’s played tackle for us, left and right, so we’ve got some flexibility there which I think is a neat thing. And then listen, I’ll sit down, I’ll just want to make sure we got the best football player we possibly could get to bring in here, and I think we did that, and then we’ll figure out a spot for him. That’s the easy part.

Again, emphasis is placed on versatility. Guys who have played or can play several spots on the line help out a lot. Usually the most versatile linemen are the offensive tackles. That’s probably why we see so many of them fill out Andy Reid’s offensive lines.

-10:22 …The guys that were at the Senior Bowl, you saw that. You saw this guy go out and dominate, in the one-on-ones, dominate in the game, and it was a new position for him, the first time he had played guard, he just lit it up. But that’s what he’s been doing all year, and that’s how he plays.

-11:00 He is a pretty good player now. He knows how to play the game out in front of him, with his arms, which that’s a big thing, sometimes you have to try to train guys to do that. He already does that. He’s very powerful in the core, and very powerful in his jam. Those are hard things to teach, and he’s got that.

-13:22 On whether Watkins can start as a rookie- We always try to bring in guys who we feel are starters. You never really try to go into this thing and say, ok, I’m going to draft this guy to be a backup.

In review, the takeaway from the interview, for me, was that an ideal offensive lineman must fulfill several criteria. The prospect must have:

1. Toughness
2. Productivity/good game tape
3. Versatility, and by extension, athleticism

No doubt there are other auxiliary considerations, but seem to be the core values.

Now, how about we put this knowledge to good use by comparing how the top two offensive tackles, Luke Joeckel and Eric Fisher, fair in these three critical areas.

On Luke Joeckel:

• Toughness- Never missed a game due to injury. This suggests excellent durability. ESPN’s Scouts Inc. has this to say about Joeckel’s toughness:
  

   Needs to improve overall strength but he is tough. Plays with an edge. Works through the whistle. Very good effort on combo blocks. Is aggressive and plays with an attacking style.

They give him a 2 in this category (scores range from 1-5, lower is better).

• Productivity against pro caliber prospects- Joeckel faced several elite prospects, Sam Montgomery (LSU), Barkevious Mingo (LSU), Corey Lemonier (Auburn), and Margus Hunt (SMU). Against Mingo and Montgomery, he struggled quite a bit, allowing 4 hurries and a sack to the LSU defense. On the other hand, he aced his contest against Lemonier, giving up a total of 1 hurry to the quick-footed pass rusher.

•  Versatility/Athleticism- Played entire career at left tackle. Has no college game experience at other positions. Yet, it speaks to his athleticism to win the spot that usually goes to a team’s most nimble and reliable lineman right from the very beginning.

On Eric Fisher:

•  Toughness- Missed two games due to injury in 2011. No missed time in 2012. From ESPN-

Not [a pile driver] but looks to finish blocks when the opportunity presents itself. Plays hard and passion is evident. Displays good energy. Consistently gives second effort on tape and works to the whistle.

They also grade him as a 2 in this category (scores range from 1-5, lower is better).

• Productivity against pro caliber prospects- At Central Michigan, Fisher lined up against William Gholston (Michigan State) in the regular season, allowing a single hurry to the Spartans. At the Senior Bowl, he was considered one of the best overall players and was dominant in the practices that week.
• Versatility/Athleticism- Has played offensive guard, right tackle, and left tackle at Central Michigan. Fisher is also a very quick athlete.

In summary

Both men score above average for toughness, but there may not be a great deal separating them in this category. Fisher is said to play with a chip on his shoulder, but Joeckel has been more durable.

In productivity against top competition, Joeckel has faced more elite linemen in season. But Fisher, being a senior, was invited to the Senior Bowl, at which time he put himself up against some of the best players in the draft and did really, really well.

Regarding versatility, Fisher has experience playing multiple positions, which should increase his usefulness and value. Joeckel has played only one position, but it the spot that usually requires the best pass protector.

When the time comes, the men making this decision will have a difficult time making the call between these two highly skilled prospects. Based on these three criteria, I think that Eric Fisher distinguishes himself slightly more than Luke Joeckel. But if you bring in several other factors that Andy Reid mentioned in his interview, things like use of hands and generating power in the core, I see Joeckel drawing closer due to his exceptional balance and technique.

Final word-Eric Fisher goes to the Cheifs

Numerous times, the Lions have selected an impact player, especially on offense, even when a good, solid player was chalked in as the starter.  Here are some examples:

2012: Detroit selects Ryan Broyles in 2nd round, even though team was stocked with receivers (Nate Burleson, Titus Young, and Calvin Johnson).

2011: Drafts Nick Fairley in 1st round, already had Corey Williams, Ndamukong Suh, Sammie Lee Hill at DT.

2010: Lions choose Mikel Leshoure in 2nd round, drafted Jahvid Best the previous year. In this case, the two backs played vastly different styles.

All of these players were selected at positions not “needed,” yet they were highly productive prospects at impact areas. Detroit doesn’t mind stockpiling at certain positions.

If you need any further convincing, just think about how unstoppable Detroit’s offense could be with an addition like Tavon Austin or Cordarrelle Patterson.

On a given play, Detroit could send Calvin Johnson deep, Michael Bush into the flat, Nate Burleson/ Ryan Broyles and Tavon Austin across the middle. How can that be stopped?

Note: Detroit Lions have scheduled pre-draft visits with Tavon Austin, Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter, and Robert Woods.

Out of the many prospects that can be analyzed, discussed, researched, and evaluated, I chose to single out a few of the issues surrounding the class of defensive linemen/pass rushers.

Pass rushers come in all shapes and sizes. There are the Vince Wilfork types who can set up camp in the middle of a storm of offensive linemen and not get driven out. Other less skilled anchoring linemen like Geno Atkins make their living slicing and dicing through blocks with quickness and anticipation. Then there are those rare men who have been blessed with both power and quickness, and simply cannot be blocked on a consistent basis. Prospects in the mold of J.J. Watt can play in any scheme and remain effective. Yet, such versatility can be difficult to find.

More often, savvy organizations identify a prospect’s key strengths and seek to maximize them with good coaching and scheme. In such cases,c fit can optimize a player’s skill set and turn a good player into a great one, or a decent player into a good one.

Under the established framework that there are several general types of pass rushers, I want to discuss some thoughts on two interior pass rushers entering the draft: Sharrif Floyd and Datone Jones.

When I watch Mr. Floyd, I see a lineman who who started the year at defensive end, but became such a force attacking up field from the interior that he eventually got pushed inside to DT. On the inside, he won battles with active hands, quickness, and hustle. He would attract extra blocking attention, yet still managed to rack up heavy tackles for loss.

Of the general types of pass rushers, Floyd fits the mold of a quick and disruptive run specialist. Teams looking for an extremely long, 2-gap reactor will not be able to maximize Floyd’s skill set.

According to the national media, analysts who I greatly respect consider Floyd to be one of three or four elite prospects in this draft. Although I do agree he is a very good player, there two key areas that give me pause:

1. Pass rush production

2. Arm length (31 inch arms)

The single thing that sets elite linemen apart from the rest, in the modern NFL, is their pass rushing skills. Since the majority of today’s offenses are heavily pass oriented, defenses must find ways to defend the pass. The best method of achieving this goal is by building a ferocious pass rush.

Obviously, defenders must be competent against the run, but they really are valued for their disruption in the passing game. Recent top linemen and edge rushers like Ndamukong Suh and Von Miller were both able to live in the backfield on passing downs in college. Yet, according to the Pass Rusher Rating, Floyd’s skills point towards him being sought out for his run defense, not pass rush skills.

If it was up to me, I would feel comfortable drafting a player with Sharrif Floyd’s traits somewhere in the 14-28 range of round one. Teams with strict height, weight, speed requirements may not feel comfortable drafting prospects with what can be described as less than ideal arm length. Nevertheless, he seems like a good fit for teams willing to overlook that issue. I can see him doing well in Denver, Chicago, Carolina, or Minnesota.

NFL teams probably are looking at all his tackles for loss, and feel that those TFL’s can easily turn into sacks and pressures down the road. If this is the case, then I could see what the optimism is all about.

On a somewhat different note, here is thought on another prospect. I have watched enough tape of UCLA DE Datone Jones to ask why he is not in serious discussion for a top 15 pick. After all, he exhibits so many of the same qualities as Sharrif Floyd. Let me count the ways!

1. Almost exactly the same production in the PRR study (both TFL and pass rush pressure)

2. Excellent movement skills for the position

3. Size, Jones is only about ten pounds lighter, but has the bonus of longer arms

4. Explosive off the snap, disruptive in the run game

5. Versatile, can play inside and out

6. Had a dominant Senior Bowl performance

If a person wants to make the case that Sharrif Floyd is a top 10 pick, then all I am saying is that Datone Jones looks every bit as good a prospect as Floyd. Then, why the vastly different opinions?

Any ideas?

Furthermore, my interest in the position drives me to watch a great deal more video footage of the top pass rushing prospects. Consequently, I have inevitably formed a more concrete opinion on these fine athletes than on any other position group. I have written on this topic in the form of a study previously referred to as the Pass Rusher Rating (PRR). In short, the PRR is a score given to each player, reflecting how often they created pressure on quarterbacks, whether it was in the form of a sack, hurry, hit, forced fumble, etc.

Why is this important? The sack statistic is only part of the story of how disruptive a play can be.

Down to brass tacks:

Many draft analysts make the site a lack of productivity as a prime factor for downgrading Oregon OLB Dion Jordan. I am aware that he did have a mere 5 sacks in 2012. But under the PRR, he was the second most productive pass rusher examined, only second to Jarvis Jones. He was affecting the quarterback at a very high rate.

Dion Jordan is a big time player in my book. I cannot overemphasize how few people possess his physical gifts. So few players have his size and speed combination, and even fewer have the flexibility, bend, and fluidity of hip movement. He can do everything a coach can dream up. This young man is already a very good football player, but I am don’t feel like I am going out on a limb to say he should be an All-Pro player in his career.

Jarvis Jones, I am sorry to say, has been heavily downgraded after a poor 40 yard dash time at his pro day. No matter how you slice it, 4.9 is not a good time. Such a time is cause for alarm since it raises the question of whether he can be explosive enough to beat blockers at the next level. This is a necessary question to ask, but one that can be answered by returning to the game tape. Does he play fast?

Yes, he plays fast.

Does he beat top level offensive linemen with speed and/or power?

Yes, with regularity.

It is a shame to see the player that I believe has shown himself to be the best pure football player in the entire draft now talked about as dropping 10, 20, 30 spots after a slow 40 yard dash at his pro day. This not only seems premature, but it also takes away from his decent performance in his drill work. From the little bit I saw, he showed short area quickness, change of direction and burst. Long speed is good, but shouldn’t overshadow the superb production.

If I was making the decision to draft Jones, here is my thought process (assuming his medical checks out):

Are there other players with with similar production, yet had the physical tools and upside that Jones may be lacking? No that is the problem. The problem is Jones has no rival in production. He outscored Dion Jordan in the PRR by 30%, and beat out the lowest score by roughly a factor of 4! His numbers are tentatively up there with Von Miller’s.

Even though some teams may like his production, a valid argument can be made to pass him up. He doesn’t fit the profile of an elite linebacker, at least from a physical standpoint. There are not many successful pass rushers who are 6’2″ 250 lbs that run 4.9.

What I am say is to take courage!

Trust the things that translate to future success: play in pads vs. play without pads.  This man is just such a wonderful football player. I mean think about it…Jones was unstoppable against the toughest competition in the country for two straight years. That has to count for something.

In part two, I’ll discuss my thoughts on Florida DT Sharrif Floyd and UCLA DE Datone Jones.

Also, as of this evening, I updated my mock draft to include selections 21-32.

(Updated 3/30/13) -

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As the 2013 NFL Draft approaches and we get excited about which team will draft whom, it’s sometimes easy to forget the high profile players that came into last year’s draft. This is useful because we can look back and examine which player types were most successful and who had the ability to thrive or falter in the spotlight of the National Football League. This can help us predict how various team general managers will draft this year. Let’s take a look some of the first-round draft picks that immediately made in impact, either positively or negatively.

Quarterbacks

 It’s always a team’s hope that its first-round draft pick will turn out to be a franchise player, but this very rarely happens in that player’s rookie year. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III led each of their teams to the 2012 NFL playoffs and set astronomical benchmarks for subsequent rookie quarterbacks to follow.

Griffin passed for 3,200 yards, rushed for another 815, and accounted for 27 total touchdowns on his way to winning Rookie of the Year honors.

Luck was equally as effective for the Indianapolis Colts, passing for nearly 4,400 yards and accounting for 28 total touchdowns.

Ryan Tannehill – I was pleasantly surprised by the young receiver-turned-quarterback’s 2012-13 season. While not nearly playing comparably to Griffin or Luck, Tannehill passed for over 3,200 yards and led the sparsely-talented Dolphins to a 7-9 finish.

Running backs

Trent Richardson – The big Alabama runner had a decent rookie year considering he played with a rookie quarterback, competed in the tough AFC North, and simply played for the Browns. His average of 3.6 is nothing spectacular, but when factoring in his catching ability he accounted for over 1,300 total yards for Cleveland despite running into injury issues along the way.

Doug Martin – Martin may have been the steal of the first round in 2012. Any quibbling of Legarrette Blount taking over a share of Martin’s carries were all but extinguished as Martin ran for over 1,450 rushing, 472 receiving, and 12 total touchdowns. His 251 yard game against Oakland in early November not only set the single game rookie rushing record but also clearly displayed Martin’s great combination of speed, power, and elusiveness. He makes Boise State “Bronco Nation” proud.

David Wilson – The jury is still out on Wilson, but apparently isn’t for the NY Giants. Wilson possesses elite speed and great vision. With the departure of Ahmad Bradshaw, we should get a good idea of his ability next year when he takes over the lead reigns.

Notables

Luke Kuechly – Kuechly could have very well been rookie of the year had he gotten the same attention of Luck and Griffin. He also played on Carolina, not the highest caliber defensive team. Yet he led the entire league in tackles with 164 (combined solo and assists). He was that good and certainly has a promising future with Carolina.

Morris Claiborne – The Cowboys can now effectively match opposing receivers one-on-one thanks to Brandon Carr and the standout LSU product.

Matt Kalil (LT, Vikings) – His great year can be directly a cause of Adrian Peterson’s record season. 90% of the Vikings runs went to the left side.

While the 2013 NFL Draft may not be as talented as the class in 2012, there remain some very good players at all positions. Dee Milliner, Chance Warmack, and Jarvis Jones are some of those players that have the potential to anchor the team which drafts them. For all of your draft needs check out some of the rankings and analysis here at NFLdraftblogger.com.

Just as the Pass Rusher Rating quantified the amount of pressure said players applied throughout the season, the PBR will investigate how much pressure a given offensive tackle allowed.

The scoring system remains nearly unchanged, except that in this case a low score is preferable to a high score:

• Sacks allowed=1.0 point
• Hits and hurries on the QB=0.75 points
• Holding penalties=0.75 points

Using Youtube videos showing every offensive snap for each game, I was able to review between two and four 2012 games for each prospect on this list . If the game was posted, it was included in the calculation. This study is ongoing, and I will update the player ratings as more game tape becomes available for me to review.

Observations on the offensive tackles:

Eric Fisher is a dominant offensive lineman. In pass protection he shows excellent balance, and has the foot quickness to shut down speed rushers. Against the run, he not only gets great push but he can make some very difficult blocks look routine.  I’ll admit that he was helped by having a calm quarterback behind him, but that PBR of 1.9 is off the charts good.  Against top competition (Michigan St, Iowa) his play did not drop off at all.

Mike Mayock has given high praise for Justin Pugh, LT from Syracuse based on his sound fundamentals, and it showed up in his score. He struggled against Rutgers, yielding 3 hits and 1 sack against their speedy, 230 pound DE Ka’Lial Glaud.  There have been discussions about whether Pugh is best suited for guard, largely based on less than ideal arm length. Wherever he lines up at the next level, he should be a very good player.

I’ll admit, this was my first real look at Lane Johnson, not counting Senior Bowl practice. This guy can play football. Johnson is so much more than JUST a phenomenal athlete. The former quarterback matched up against two of the nation’s top pass rushers in Alex Okafor (Texas) and Damontre Moore (Texas A&M) and totally erased them (minus 1 questionable pressure against Moore). His kick slide is among the cream of the crop. He is relatively new to the position of OT, but he acquitted himself nicely by making leaps and bounds as the season progressed.

Boy, there are some athletic tackles in this group. Menelik Watson is a former basketball player and boxer from Europe. Although he is inexperienced just like Lane Johnson, he put up a better score than 2012 first rounder Riley Reiff. Watson can make blocks in the run game that other tackles simply cannot due to his explosiveness and agility. Of all the tackles I evaluated, Watson was most impressive at getting to the 2nd level and making downfield blocks. Once he cuts down on the missed assignments, he could be a special player at the next level.

Easily the most unheralded on this list, Oday Aboushi took me by surprise.  His production was very good in the two games I tracked him. Yet, his athleticism is not on par with the others on this list. Nevertheless, he has the skills to excel on the right side where he can match power against power. I’d like to watch more games of his to get a better feel for his ability.

D.J. Fluker is one huge human being. He plays right tackle in Alabama’s run-heavy offense, and can move some folks out of the way. For a big man, he slides pretty well, but more than makes up for it with 36 inch arms. As a frame of reference, I’ve never seen a player with arms longer than that. Such length allows him to latch onto or punch into defenders well before they can.  I didn’t expect him to hit a home run in pass protection. What you are getting with D.J. Fluker is a Phil Loadholt-type. His run blocking is so good, he only needs to be decent against the pass.

Finally, the big surprise of the group was Luke Joeckel. As the reigning Outland trophy winner, I expected Joeckel to be anywhere but here on the list. Against Florida and LSU, he allowed 9 hurries. In his defense, he is blocking for a very mobile quarterback in Johnny Manziel, which makes Joeckel’s assignment even more challenging. Sometimes Manziel would start to scramble and walk into pressure. Then there is the fact that Joeckel matched up against some of the most dangerous rushers in college football (Barkevious Mingo and Sam Montgomery). Those things could easily sway the score a bit.

Bottom Line

This group is loaded with talent. Probably five or six of these linemen will be selected in the first round alone. Eric Fisher showed me he is the class of this group, yet the two uber athletic tackles (Watson and Johnson) may prove to be the most accomplished several years from now. If your favorite team is in need of blockers, this is certainly a great year to be in need of one.

Sorry for the confusion!

Enjoy the show (zoom forward about 35% into the episode to find my interview segment).