My Trading Book

10 Mar 10 : Yes Yanlord went up even more

2010-03-10T19:25:00.001+08:00

Sigh :)

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Pre-Market Open Commentary for 10 March 2010

DJIA: 10564.38 +11.86
Nasdaq Composite: 2340.68 +8.47

Following a choppy trading session, US stocks gained moderately on Tuesday as investors weighed corporate deals and news on corporate profits. Merck and Sanofi-Aventis merged their animal healthcare businesses to create a combined entity with a global market share of about 29% worth around US$19 bil while Cisco System introduced a new Internet router that will power the most heavily-trafficked parts of the web at twelve times the speed of its competitors. Further, Texas Instruments updated upwards its first quarter profit estimates to between 48 cents and 52 cents per share on revenue of US$3.07 bil to US$3.19 bil but investors took a “sell on news” approach which sent the share 2% lower.

Despite positive corporate news, the market was wary after stocks were pushed higher for three of the last four weeks. All the major indices ended only modestly higher with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.11% while S&P 500 rose 0.17% to 1,140.44. Nasdaq composite gained 0.36%.

A host of economic news scheduled for this week will start releasing on Wednesday with the readings of January unemployment rate on a state-by-state basis, wholesale inventories and weekly crude oil inventories.

US light crude oil for April delivery dipped US$0.38 to settle at US$81.49 a barrel.

In Singapore today:

Following a lackluster performance on Wall Street on Tuesday, which coincided with the first anniversary of major stock indices falling to the lowest level in 2009, investors returned to the sidelines awaiting fresh leads. The STI traded within a tight range before ending 4.97 points higher at 2839.54. For every stock that gained, 1.22 fell. Overall market volume fell to a two-week low of 1.17 bil shares worth $1.21bil traded.

Shares of Straits Asia bounced 5 cents at $2.12 on talks of short covering in spite of the recent spate of downgrades and weaker coal prices. China Animal Healthcare rose 1.5 cent at 27cents on speculations that it may announce a contract win. Yanlord Land rose 6 cents to $2 on institutional demand as concerns about fresh measures to curb speculative demand ease.

Expect the local bourse to trade modestly firmer taking cues from overnight positive close on Wall Street. Reports of Japan’s core machine orders falling less-than-expected in January from the previous month which signaled that capital expenditure will continue to grow slowly in 2010 as manufacturer increase spending, supporting economic growth, will further underpin the market.

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Mid Day March 10. Asian markets in lethargic range bound trading.

Asian markets traded in a lethargic range bound fashion as US markets locked modest gains overnight. Traders while less pessimistic about the near term were still lacking conviction in a big way, judging from the volumes traded. `No one is being greedy, if you make money, just sell' a dealer enthused. The STI index rose 21.86 points at 2861.40 points. For every stock that fell, 2 rose. Turnover was 876mil shares with a value of $834mil traded.

Stocks are not dropping; but they are not surging either. `We have probably settled to normal trading patterns. There may be some resistance now but people need to ask, `what if we take out these resistance' a dealer mused.

Then again, investors who had sold and waiting for their `elusive lower entry levels' may soon run out of patience. Tiger Airways got another boost (recent buy call from a foreign broker) when a local broker recommended buy with a target of $2.10. The stock rose 9 cents at $1.71.

Yanlord Land rose 8 cents at $2.08 on institutional interest as concerns about further monetary tightening in China eased. Palm Oil issues rose on media reports that demand will outstrip supply this year due to El Nino effect and Asian consumption. Shares of Wilmar, IndoAgric, Golden Agric and First Resources rose between 2 and 14 cents. Rotational play here boost shares of Z-Obee, China Environment, Pac Andes and Otto Marine between 1 and 3 cents.

On the balance, shares of OUE, STX Pan Ocean, UOL, Leeden, Kim Eng and Amara eased between 1 and 90 cents.

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Market close March 10. STI continued upward climb

The STI index continued its upward climb, closing 22.75 points higher at 2862.29 points. For every stock that fell, 2 rose. Turnover was 1.65bil shares with a value of $1.55bil traded.

While stock valuations appear rich, investors who had sold earlier and are waiting for lower entry levels may find themselves frustrated.

Tiger Airways got another boost (recent buy call from a foreign broker) when a local broker recommended buy with a target of $2.10. The stock rose 8 cents at $1.70.

Yanlord Land rose 4 cents at $2.04 on institutional interest as concerns about further monetary tightening in China eased. Palm Oil issues rose on media reports that demand will out strip supply this year due to El nino effect and Asian consumption. Shares of Wilmar, IndoAgric, Golden Agric and First Resources rose between 2 and 14 cents. Rotational play boost shares of Z-Obee, China Environment, Pac Andes and Otto Marine between 1 and 3 cents.

On the balance, shares of OUE, Sp Land, STX Pan Ocean, Cortina a n d SIA Engg, eased between 4 and 18 cents.

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9 Mar 10 : Shorted EUR/USD for 50 pips profit

2010-03-09T20:06:00.001+08:00

Shorted EUR/USD after Euro opening to secure 50 pips. Has been making lower high and lower lows so I am biased towards a short. Nice trade :)

9 Mar 10 : Yanlord Goes Up to $2.02

2010-03-09T12:44:00.003+08:00

Of course, this has to happened. After a few days of seeing it fail to clear $1.94/$1.95, and hence selling my position at $1.94 yesterday, my dear friend, MR Yanlord (or is it Miss Yanlord or Mrs Yanlord) decided to play fool with me. In the afternoon, it broke past $1.95 easily to reach as high as $2.02.

Brilliant. I have a dating problem with Yanlord :)

On a more serious note, NOL price action worries me. It hit a high of $2.00 then in the last ten or fifteen minutes, returned back to $1.95. Worrying...

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Pre-Market Open Commentary for 09 March 2010

DJIA: 10552.52 -13.68
Nasdaq Composite: 2332.21 +5.86

US stocks drifted and ended with little change on Monday as investors weighed corporate deals, a stronger greenback and weaker commodity prices ahead of key economic news scheduled for later this week. The market was underpinned by corporate deals including MetLife agreeing to buy AIG’s American Life Insurance unit, Alico, in a US$15.5bil cash-and-stock deal, which will leave AIG as MetLife’s second-largest shareholder with stake of over 20% in the company. Separately, Royal Dutch Shell and PetroChina have made a bid to buy Australia’s Arrow Energy for US$3.0 bil in a cash-and-stock deal; currently Royal Dutch Shell already owns a 10% stake in Arrow.

The major indices ended mixed with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 0.13% while S&P 500 was largely unchanged, dipping 0.02% to 1,138.50. Nasdaq composite managed to close at an 18-month high, gaining 0.25%.

The market is looking to a host of economic news which will only pick up later this week with the release of January unemployment rate on a state-by-state basis on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday and retail sales on Friday.

US light crude oil for April delivery rose US$0.37 to settle at US$81.87 a barrel.

In Singapore today:

Upbeat US jobs data boosted the Asian bourses which registered the strongest gains in a month. The Nikkei gained 2.1% while Kopsi Index rose 1.6% and Taiex was up 1.3%. Local bargain hunters plunged back into the market snapping up banks and other blue chips, propelling the STI 44.28 points, or 1.6%, higher to 2834.57. For every stock that fell, 2.07 gained. Turnover was 1.46bil shares with a value of $1.57bil traded.

Genting Singapore shares extended gains, adding 1.5 cents at 92 cents as investors cheered the expected opening of Universal Studios on March 18th. Shares of CWT and ARA rose 2.0 cents and 1 cent at 97.5 cents and $1.13 respectively as investors stayed bullish ahead of the impending listing of their Cache Logistics Trust unit.

Resource stocks rose as the economy recovery outlook improved. Shares of Straits Asia, Noble Group, Wilmar, Olam and Golden Agric rose between 1 and 11 cents.

Expect the local bourse to be range-bound today taking leads from the subdued overnight close on Wall Street and as investors look to a host of US economic news scheduled later this week for further confirmation that US economic recovery is on track.
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Mid Day March 9. Asian markets meandered lower in tight range.

Wall Street took a breather yesterday and with the anniversary of last year's low around the corner, traders reckoned the market could take a few steps back on profit taking. After yesterday's rousing start, Asian markets meandered lower in a tight range as traders saw a tentative lull on consolidation. The STI index rose 2.09 points at 2836.80 points. Market breadth was flat at best while the majority of issues were unchanged. Turnover was 639mil shares with a value of $610mil traded.

Dealers reported a quiet start to Tuesday with most investors sidelined, awaiting fresh leads. While there was some profit taking, `prices have not touched levels that would entice sufficient buying participation' a dealer noted. Shares of Straits Asia bounced 5 cents at $2.12 on talks of short covering in spite of the recent spate of downgrades and weaker coal prices.

China Animal Healthcare rose 1 cent at 26.5 cents on speculations that it may announce a contract win. Yanlord Land rose 4 cents at $1.98 on institutional demand as concerns about fresh measures to curb speculative demand ease.

On the balance, shares of Biosensors, Genting Singapore, Best World, SIA, UOB, DBS, City Developments, Hyflux, Orchard Parade, China Fishery group and OCBC bank eased between 2 and 30 cents.

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Market close March 9. STI closes flat in listless trading

Caution prevailed after yesterday's rousing start, Asian markets meandered lower today in a tight range as traders saw a tentative lull on consolidation. The STI index rose 4.97 points at 2839.54 points. Market breadth was skewed to the negative. Turnover was 1.17bil shares with a value of $1.2bil traded.

Dealers reported a quiet start to Tuesday with most investors sidelined, awaiting fresh leads. While there was some profit taking, `prices have not touched levels that would entice sufficient buying participation' a dealer noted.

Shares of Straits Asia bounced 5 cents at $2.12 on talks of short covering in spite of the recent spate of downgrades and weaker coal prices.

China Animal Healthcare rose 1.5 cent at 27cents on speculations that it may announce a contract win. Yanlord Land rose 6 cents at $2 on institutional demand as concerns about fresh measures to curb speculative demand ease.

On the balance, shares of APB, SIA, UOB, DBS, City Developments, Venture, F&N, Ho Bee and Sp Land eased between 4 and 22 cents.

8 Mar 10 : Out of Yanlord at $1.94

2010-03-08T20:28:00.001+08:00

In at $1.76. Out at $1.94. I dun like the way it keeps hitting $1.94/$1.95 and not dash past it for the past week. I think this is a major resistance. Fundamentally, it is a China stock and I am not very comfortable holding China related stock for too long. I will watch out and see whether it make sense to get in again. There is a high chance it might go up due to major players but I am not willing to play with it. From a technical point of view, I am happy the head and shoulder formation did breakout nicely. Happy with the gains :)

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Pre-Market Open Commentary for 08 March 2010
DJIA: 10566.20 +122.06
Nasdaq Composite: 2326.35 +34.04

US stocks surged last Friday following an upbeat government report that showed employers cut fewer-than-expected positions in February, with a net total of 36,000 jobs cut, against expectations of a 68,000 jobs lost, from a cut of 26,000 jobs in January. Further, the unemployment rate held steady at 9.7%, ahead of expectations of a rise to 9.8%. On the corporate front, there were also upbeat corporate news with Apple releasing its highly-anticipated iPAd tablet computer on 3 April 2010 and Broadband agreeing to be taken private by ABRY Partners in a deal worth US$536 mil in cash plus debt.

For the week, all the major indices ended higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.33% and S&P 500 climbed 3.10% to end at 1138.70. Nasdaq composite rallied 3.94%.

It will be a light week ahead for economic news which only picks up on Wednesday with the release of January unemployment rate on a state-by-state basis, readings on wholesale inventories and weekly crude oil inventories.

For the week, US light crude oil for April delivery rose US$1.84 or 2.30% to settle at US$81.50 a barrel.

In Singapore today:

The Singapore bourse was buoyed by positive local corporate news and brighter prospects overseas. Market sentiment was lifted was led by better-than-expected reports on manufacturing, retail sales, inflation and the labour market in the US and allaying fears over the European debt crisis. On the local front, news of the opening of Universal Studio at the Sentosa integrated resort on 18 March 2010 brought optimism that Genting may turn profitable this year, which lured traders to trade up the stock. The STI index added 21.59 points to 2790.29. For the week, the STI gained 39.43 points, or 1.43%.

Expect the local bourse to trade stronger taking cues from the strong positive close on Wall Street last Friday and in light of more signs of economic recovery surfacing. However, going forward, it will require a few more months of positive economic signals to convince the market that the recovery is on a sustainable tract.

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Mid Day March 8. Asian markets jolted by friday's upside.

Asian markets got a lift from Friday's benign non-farm payrolls that sent bears scurrying to cover their short positions. After weeks of darting about aimlessly in a narrow range, Friday's upside jolt had some wondering if a retest of the January high is now on the cards. The STI index rose 35.46 points at 2825.75 points. For every stock that fell, 3 rose. Turnover was 814mil shares with a value of $835mil traded.

There seems to be a notable change in sentiments today. One broker now sets their sight on the STI index challenging 2860 or even 2930 `before finding resistance'. Recent cautiousness has investors largely sidelined. A dealer reasoned that with the recovery underway, any chance of a large fall would be buy opportunities. `For a start, fund managers didn't buy a lot of shares, so eventually, they will have less to sell'. Genting Singapore shares extended gains, adding 1cent at 91.5 cents as investors cheered the expected opening of Universal Studios on March 18th. Shares of CWT and ARA rose 2 cents at 98 and $1.14 respectively as investors stayed bullish ahead of the impending listing of their Cache Logistics Trust unit.

Resource stocks rose as the economy recovery outlook improved. Shares of Straits Asia, Noble Group, Wilmar, Olam and Golden Agric rose between 1 and 11 cents. On the balance, shares of SIA, City Dev, and Mandarin Oriental eased between 3 and 14 cents.

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Market close March 8. Positive start to the trading week

Asian stocks had a good start to the trading week and for the STI index, buying interest firmed further in the second session closing 44.28 points higher at 2834.57 points. For every stock that fell, two rose. Turnover was 1.46bil shares with a value of $1.56bil traded.

There appeared to be a notable change in sentiment today. One broker now sets their sight on the STI index challenging 2860 or even 2930 `before finding resistance'. Recent cautiousness has investors largely sidelined. A dealer reasoned that with the recovery underway, any chance of a large fall would be seen as buy opportunities.

Genting Singapore shares extended gains, adding 1.5 cents at 92 cents as investors cheered the expected opening of Universal Studios on March 18th. Shares of CWT and ARA rose 1.5 cents and 1 cent at 97 and $1.13 respectively as investors stayed bullish ahead of the impending listing of their Cache Logistics Trust unit. Resource stocks rose as the economy recovery outlook improved. Shares of Straits Asia, Noble Group, Wilmar, Olam and Golden Agric rose between 1 and 11 cents.

On the balance, shares of SIA declined 28 cents to $15.48 and MITech, down 3.5 cents to 13.5 cents.

5 Mar 10 : Genting Rebound... But what next week ?

2010-03-05T21:50:00.000+08:00

Pre-Market Open Commentary for 05 March 2010

DJIA: 10444.14 +47.38
Nasdaq Composite: 2292.31 +11.63

Following a volatile session, US stocks staged gains on the back of upbeat retail sales and jobs report. The number of new claims for unemployment fell to 469,000 last week, better-than-expectations of a fall to 470,000, from 498,000 the previous week while continuing claims also showed improvement, falling to 4.5 mil, against expectations of a decline to 4.6 mil, from a revised 4.634 mil in the previous week. Despite massive snow storms, retail sales also picked up pace, boosting retail sales by 4% in February, the sixth consecutive month of increase and in particular, Abercrombie & Fitch reported same-store sales increase of 5%, well ahead of expectations of a sales decline of 6%.

However, the housing report did not fair well with January pending home sales index plunging 7.6%, far worse-than-expectations of a rise of 1%, following a revised 0.8% rise in December. Factory orders also came in shy of forecasts, gaining 1.7% in January, against expectations of a 1.8% rise, from a revised 1.5% increase in December.

All the major indices ended higher with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.46% while S&P 500 added 0.37% to 1,122.97. Nasdaq composite climbed 0.51%.

The key economic report due on Friday is the government employment report. The payroll number is expected to show that employers cut 65,000 jobs in February, after cutting 20,000 jobs in the previous month. A separate survey is expected to show that unemployment rate has risen to 9.8%, from 9.7% in the previous month.

US light crude oil for April delivery fell US$0.66 to settle at US$80.21 a barrel.

In Singapore today:

The regional markets slipped on Thursday following a 2.4% plunge in the volatile Shanghai bourse, led by concerns over further monetary tightening measures by the central government. The Hang Seng fell 1.44% while Nikkei lost 1.05% and Taiex Index fell 0.8%. Concerns over a weak US jobs data due on Thursday due to heavy snow storm last month also kept investors on the sidelines. The STI lost 14.09 points to 2768.7. For every stock that gained, 2.3 fell. Uncertainties in the market have led investors to avoid the market and as a result turnover was thin with1.2bil shares with a value of $1.18bil traded.

Shares of Midas erupted and jumped to a high of $1.08 on confirmation that it plans to seek a dual listing in Hong Kong. The company will offer up to 340mil shares in a global offering for the purpose of a secondary listing in Hong Kong. The stock settled 3 cents up at $1.04 on 28mil shares. Epure added 0.5 cents at 86.5 cents helped by a buy report from a local broker with a target of $1.10.

Expect the local bourse to trade stronger taking cues from the positive overnight close on Wall Street following the upbeat US jobs reports on Thursday, which provided investors comfort that the pace of jobs cut is slowing as the labour market starts to stabilize and the highly-anticipated US government employment report due tonight will not spring negative surprises.

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Mid Day March 5. Asian markets generally higher on Wall Street's positive lead.

Asian markets were generally higher on Wall Street's positive lead amid talks of short covering. The STI index rose 15.78 points at 2784.48 points with some traders taking smallish bets that the US non-farm payrolls numbers could turn out positive. For every stock that fell, 2 rose. Turnover was 566mil shares with a value of $551mil traded.

Shares of Genting Singapore rose 2.5 cents at 87 cents after it was named as a new inclusion into the FTSE Asia-Ex Japan (all World) index. `I don't think there is a major impact as Genting is a widely owned stock. The key lies in the short covering' a dealer said. Biosensors bounced 2.5 cents at 86 cents after a foreign broker reiterated its buy call with a price target of $1.23. CWT jumped 6.5 cents at 97.5 cents on anticipation of the listing of its Cache Logistics trust unit. Dealers are betting that a generous special dividend would be forthcoming. Shares of Best World rose 2.5 cents at 33 cents on speculations that company may make an announcement of an acqusition. The company has a war chest of about $36mil. Ascott REITs rose 1 cents at $1.22, expanding gains from yesterday on rumours that company may soon make an announcement about an asset sale.

On the balance, shares of UOB, Hotel Royal, OUE, HPL, DBS, Keppel Land and Olam eased between 1 and 10 cents.

4 Mar 10 : Market Getting Tired

2010-03-04T19:40:00.000+08:00

Pre-Market Open Commentary for 04 March 2010

DJIA: 10396.76 -9.22
Nasdaq Composite: 2280.68 -0.11

US stocks gave up earlier gains as upbeat economic news was overshadowed by market concerns over the job and manufacturing reports due over Thursday and Friday. The private sector cut 20,000 jobs from their payrolls in February, the smallest cut in two years and in line with expectations, after a revised cut of 60,000 jobs in January. A separate reading by an outplacement firm indicated that there were 42,090 job cuts in February, the smallest number of job cuts since July 2006 when 37,178 cuts were announced, down from 71,482 in January, signaling that the pace of job cuts is slowing as the labour market slowly starts to stabilize. The ISM’s service sector index also came in ahead of expectations, rising to 53 in February, against expectations of a rise to 51, from 50.5 in January.

The market also reacted mildly to the Fed’s “Beige Book” reading on the economy which indicated that the economic activity has picked up in nine of the Fed’s 12 districts and consumer spending has also improved modestly.

Greece also announced a US$6.5 bil plan on Wednesday to help reduce its ballooning deficit, but this failed to boost market sentiment. The plan includes US$3.3 bil in new revenue such as taxes and another US$3.3 bil in spending cuts, including pension freezes and cuts in civil servants’ salaries.

The major indices ended mixed with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing a marginal 0.09% while S&P 500 inched up 0.04% to 1,118.79. Nasdaq composite was virtually unchanged, closing 11 points lower.

Thursday will bring the economic readings of January factory orders and January pending home sales index. The nation’s retailers will also be releasing February sales on the same day.

US light crude oil for April delivery rose US$1.19 to settle at US$80.87 a barrel.

In Singapore today:

An early rally on Wall Street failed to gain traction after a Federal Reserve governer said that interest rates should go up sooner rather than later. Even strong growth from Australia and optimism that the Greek debt crisis might be contained failed to lift market sentiment. Investors remained sidelined awaiting for the US job data for February due on Friday. After trading within a narrow range throughout Wednesday, the STI managed to gain 10.59 points to close at 2782.79. For every stock that gained, 1.6 fell. Turnover was thin with1.29bil shares with a value of $1.14bil traded.

Shares of Sarin closed down a cent at 46.5 cents on recent rumours that the company may be privatised. It had earlier touched a high of 50 cents in morning trades. Sing Holding rose 1.5 cent at 41.5 cents as traders bided up the stock ahead of its property launch next week.

Expect market to be range-bound again today taking cues from the directionless overnight close on Wall Street. In the absence of fresh leads during Asian trading, investors are likely to remain side-lined, awaiting the economic readings from the US market today.

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Mid Day March 4. STI lost early lead to end lower.

Wall Street appeared to be facing big headwinds as each climb upwards has proven harder despite good news. `Good news don't seem to buoy the market. There's too much resistance' a dealer noted. Asian markets were generally lethargic and off the best of the session on Wall Street's negative lead. The STI index lost its early lead to end 7.44 points down at 2775.35 points. For every stock that rose, 2 fell. Turnover was 592mil shares with a value of $574mil traded.

Shares of Midas erupted and jumped to a high of $1.08 on confirmation that it plans to seek a dual listing in Hong Kong. The company will offer up to 340mil shares in a global offering for the purpose of a secondary listing in Hong Kong. A dealer warned investors not to get carried away as the pricing for the offering has not been announced. `I won't be surprised that we are now trading at a premium to the proposed offering price' he mused.

The stock settled 3 cents up at $1.04 on 22.5mil shares. Epure added 1 cent at 87 cents helped by a buy report from a local broker with a target of $1.10. Shares of HL Asia raced to new 2010 higher; adding 15 cents at $3.85 after a foreign broker upped the stock to a buy with a target of $4.90. F&N rose 6 cents at $4.36 with the help of a buy report with a $5.35 target.

On the balance, shares of Jardine C&C, DBS, Wilmar, Hylfux, UOL, Frasers CT, Sarin, SATS Services, M1, UIC and OCBC Bank eased between 1.5 and 18 cents.

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Market close March 4. STI again lower despite positive start

Asian markets were generally le thargic and off the best of the session on Wall Street's negative lead. The STI index lost its early gains to end 14.09 points down at 2768.70 points. For every stock that rose, 1.5 fell. Turnover was 1.2bil shares with a value of $1.18mil traded.

Shares of Midas erupted and jumped to a high of $1.08 on confirmation that it plans to seek a dual listing in Hong Kong. The company will offer up to 340mil shares in a global offering for the purpose of a secondary listing in Hong Kong. A dealer warned investors not to get carried away as the pricing for the offering has not been announced. `I won't be surprised that we are now trading at a premium to the proposed offering price' he mused. The stock settled 3 cents up at $1.04 on 28mil shares.

Epure added 0.5 cents at 86.5 cents helped by a buy report from a local broker with a target of $1.10. Shares of HL Asia raced to new 2010 higher; adding 15 cents at $3.85 after a foreign broker upped the stock to a buy with a target of $4.90, although the stock eventually closed at $3.80, a gain of 10 cents.

On the balance, shares of Wilmar, SGX, DBS, Hylfux and Venture eased between 8 and 18 cents.

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Shorted AUD/USD and watched it broke 0.9000

2010-03-04T16:23:00.000+08:00

This morning woke up and saw that AUD/USD was making a move downwards with Lower High and Lower Lows. So when it did a brief consolidation at 0.9040 area, I shorted it and happily watch it continue its trend lower. At around 3-4 hours later, it suddenly crashed down to shoot pass 0.900. I had place a take profit level just 1 pip above 0.9000 as I deemed it as a very strong support (round numbers like this should be big strong support). But seemed like it does not matter. It went down like a rock pass 0.9000 and in fact reached as low as 0.8970 a hour later. Anyway, took my 43 pips profit and smile away :)

Good easy trade ! :)

3 Mar 10 : Market Sideways

2010-03-03T19:15:00.001+08:00

Pre-Market Open Commentary for 03 March 2010

DJIA: 10405.98 +2.19
Nasdaq Composite: 2280.79 +7.22

US stocks eked out modest gains on Tuesday following the February auto sales report, some upbeat company news and signs that Greece will not default on its debts. Toyota reported a 9% YoY fall in sales in February, slightly ahead of expectations of a 10% decline. The other auto companies reported higher February sales with Ford Motors’ sales jumping 43% YoY while GM reported worse-than-expected sales increase of 12% YoY for February.

On the corporate front, a bidding tussle lifted the market with CF Industries relaunching its bid for fellow fertilizer firm Terra Industries, offering US$4.75bil in cash and stock after giving up an aggressive takeover attempt in January. CF headed back into the fray after Terra agreed to a US$4.1 buyout from a competing bidder, Norway’s Yara.

There were also signs that the debt situation in Greece is under control with the Greek government expecting to announce further initiatives on Wednesday, after already announcing plans to raise the retirement age and freeze salaries, to rein in the country’s deficit.

All the major indices rose with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining a marginal 0.02% while S&P 500 rose 0.23% to 1,118.31. Nasdaq composite added 0.32%.

Wednesday will bring the economic readings of ISM services sector, weekly oil inventories and the Federal Reserve’s “beige book” reading on the economy.

In Singapore today:

Trading on Tuesday was subdued as investors moved to the sidelines after the corporate reporting season ended. Following gains in early trading, the local bourse consolidated, in reaction to HSBC’s weaker-than-expected results, which caused the Hang Seng to end 0.7% lower as HSBC accounts for 14% on the Hang Seng index. The STI ended 1.8 points lower at 2772.2. For every stock that gained, 1.6 fell. Turnover was 1.3bil shares with a value of $1.3bil traded.
Genting was again the most active counter for the day and the share slumped 4 cents to a six-month low of 87 cents on 197mil shares on rumours of a cash call. `I think such rumours are the work of those who had shorted the stock earlier' a trader said. Thinly traded shares of Sarin sprang to life and rose 6.5 cents to 47.5 cents on heavy volume of 8.1 mil shares following rumours that it may be taken private.

Expect market to be range-bound again today taking cues from the modest overnight gains in Wall Street. In the absence of fresh leads during Asian trading, investors are likely to remain side-lined, awaiting the economic readings from the US market today.

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Mid Day March 3. STI in tight trading range.

An early rally on Wall Street failed to gain traction after a Federal Reserve governer said that rates should go up sooner rather than later. Technology issues led the retreat and Wall Street was left with single digit gains at the closing bell. It was a choppy day for Asian markets on selective gains led by commodities helped by a weaker US dollar. The STI index danced about in a tight trading range and ended the mid day session 2.43 points lower at 2769.77. For every stock that rose, 2 fell. Turnover was 710mil shares with a value of $598mil traded.

With stocks trading within a narrow range on a lack of fresh leads, investors are being nudged to the sidelines. `I think over the near term, traders would be eyeing the key US jobs data this Friday' a dealer mused.

Shares of Sarin put on half cent at 48 cents on recent rumours that company may be privatised. It had earlier touched a high of 50 cents in morning trades. Sing Holding rose 1 cent at 41 cents as traders bidded up the stock ahead of its property launch next week. Other gainers included Jardine C&C, Jardine Strategic, SIA, Jardine Matheson, SIA, CapitaLand, City Developments, Keppel Land, Haw Par and Semb Marine that rose between 2 and 66 cents.

On the balance, shares of UOB, DBS, Wilmar, Straits Trading, OCBC Bank, UOL, SATs Services, Keppel Corp, Olam and Venture Corp eased between 1 and 16 cents.

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Market close March 3. STI edges higher in choppy trading

It was a choppy day for Asian mark ets on selective gains led by commodities helped by a weaker US dollar. The STI index danced about in a tight trading range and ended day 10.59 points higher at 2782.79. For every stock that rose, 1.5 fell. Turnover was 1.29bil shares with a value of $1.14bil traded.

With stocks trading within a narrow range on a lack of fresh leads, investors are being nudged to the sidelines. `I think over the near term, traders would be eyeing the key US jobs data this Friday' a dealer mused.

Shares of Sarin closed down a cent at 46.5 cents on recent rumours that company may be privatised. It had earlier touched a high of 50 cents in morning trades.

Sing Holding rose 1.5 cent at 41.5 cents as traders bidded up the stock ahead of its property launch next week. Other gainers included Jardine C&C, Jardine Strategic, SIA, Jardine Matheson, Keppel Land, and Haw Par that rose between 7 and 24 cents.

On the balance, shares of UOB, F&N, Hyflux, Venture, Creative, and S p Land, eased between 5 and 8 cents.

===

2 Mar 10 : Watch out for NOL

2010-03-02T21:00:00.000+08:00

NOL looks interesting to me..

=========

Pre-Market Open Commentary for 02 March 2010

DJIA: 10403.79 +78.53
Nasdaq Composite: 2273.57 +35.31

US stocks turned positive as investors welcome AIG’s US$35 bil asset sale and a pair of mergers in the pharmaceutical sector as well as easing fears of Greece’s debt default. AIG sold its Asian life insurance business to Britain’s Prudential PLC in a deal worth US$35.5 bil; the deal includes US$25 bil in cash of which US$16 bil has been earmarked to pay back the government and taxpayers.

Merger & acquisition deals further lifted the market with Japanese drug maker, Astellas Pharma making an unsolicited US$3.5 bil bid for OSI Pharmaceuticals, maker of blockbuster Tarceva cancer drug and the deal represents a 40% premium over OSI’s closing price last Friday. Separately, German pharmaceutical Merck plans to buy US-based Millipore for US$7.2 bil.

On the economic front, the readings were mixed. ISM manufacturing index fell to 56.5 in February, worse-than-expectations of a fall only to 57.9, from 58.4 in January while construction spending declined 0.6% in January, in line with expectations, after falling 1.2% in December.

All the major indices rose with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.76% while S&P 500 rose 1.02% to 1,115.71. Nasdaq composite surged 1.58%.

Reports of February auto and truck sales are due throughout Tuesday and Toyota is expected to take a hit following its recall of millions of vehicles plagued with safety issues. However, General Motors and Ford Motor are among the companies expected to post sales improvement from a year ago.

US light crude oil for April delivery fell US$0.96 to settle at US$79.66 a barrel.

In Singapore today:

Asian markets gained ground on Monday due to easing concerns that Greece will default on its massive debts led by a report by The Wall Street Journal over the weekend that a plan led by Germany and France to bail out Greece has started to take shape. Nikkei added 0.45% while Hang Seng surged 2.17% and the Shanghai market gained 1.18%. Mirroring the buoyant regional markets, the STI rose 23.20, or 0.84%, to 2774.06. For every stock that fell, 2.1 rose. Turnover picked up marginally to 1.47bil shares with a value of $1.37bil traded.

Wilmar International put on 17 cents to $6.67 following the release of better-than-expected 4QFY09 results on Sunday. Genting was the most active counter for the day with 133 mil shares traded and the share managed to reverse previous losses to put on 1.5 cents to close at 91 cents.

Notwithstanding the overnight rally in Wall Street, expect market to be range bound today in the absence of fresh directions. Investors are likely to stay side-lined, awaiting economic readings from the US market this week, particularly the jobs report scheduled on Friday, for indications that economic recovery is on the way.

====

Mid Day March 2. Stocks consolidated after yesterday's gains.

US stocks advanced on the first trading day of March encouraged by Warren Buffet's comments that the economy was slowly getting better. Dealers pointed to M&A activities that also gave the broader market a boost. Trading on Tuesday was subdued as stocks consolidated after yesterday's gains and reacted to titan HSBC's results.`HSBC accounts for 14 per cent on the Hang Seng index' a dealer said. The STI index rose 7.48 points at 2781.54 points with some technical analysts calling for a rise to 2800-2860 points before correcting again. For every stock that rose, about 2 fell. Turnover was 795mil shares with a value of $719mil traded.

Stocks may not be tumbling in the wake of the 0.7 per cent fall in the Hang Seng index (led by HSBC's 5 per cent fall) but they are not rising either. Most traders remained cautious and are not likely to be making reckless trades; being conservative. `I think the market will remain like that, tradeable only from oversold levels but mostly in limbo and probably in a drifting mode' a dealer said.

Shares of Genting Singapore slumped 3.5 cents at 87.5 cents on 135mil shares on rumours of a cash call. `I think such rumours are the work of those who had shorted the stock earlier' a trader said. Profit taking pushed shares of Ezra, IndoAgric, Straits Asia and Noble Group 1 and 5 cents lower.

Shares of Sarin rose almost 10 per cent or 4.5 cents at 45.5 cents on rumours that it may be taken private. Financial One Corp rose 2 cents in the hopes that it has turned the corner and 2010 will be better. Dealers said there was talk the company may soon announce an update on its plans to list its unit in Taiwan. Others like Jardine C&C, Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, SIA, Wilmar, DBS, C2O and NOL rose between 4 and 64 cents.

====

2 Mar 10 : Shorted EUR/USD

2010-03-02T20:31:00.000+08:00

Did a short of EUR/USD at around 4 pm Singapore time. It was a veery quick trade. Made 50 pips in 1 hour or so. Saw that the EUR/USD was make lower low and lower high (i.e. trending downwards). So when it broke my Moving Average band, I shorted it.

Nice trade. Happy with it.

Red = Stop Loss
Blue = Entry Price
Green = Target Profit

Taking Stock of Our Trading Times

2010-03-02T12:33:00.000+08:00

Taking Stock
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

'May you live in interesting times'. The purported Chinese curse which is not Chinese at all and can be cited no further back than 1950 to British science fiction author Eric Frank Russell, is a perfect distillation of the past two years.

Interesting times, historic events. Lehman, Bear Stearns and Merrill, Bank of America, TARP and the 2008 election will be analyzed and written about for decades. The fears of Ben Bernanke, and Hank Paulson as markets collapsed and the end of the world financial system seemed a matter of hours will be told and retold to generations on Wall Street. But surprisingly these dramatic events have not left traders, bankers, regulators and politicians with a true sense of the vulnerability of the global financial structure and the revolution which has taken place.

Simply because the world did not end in 2008 it will continue just as it was before, seems to be the operating opinion in finance and government. We have a sense of returning normality not of danger, of continuation for our financial system and methods not of their end. The sharp break that actually took place a little more than a year ago has been concealed by the restoration of economic growth in most countries and the survival of almost all pre-crisis institutions.

But has the world resumed its pre-crash ways and can the developed nations look forward to a restoration of normal economic and political life?

If the West has lost both the ability to finance its own expenses, which Europe and the United States it certainly have, and also the resolution to recoup its budgetary position or to ensure fast enough economic growth to accomplish the same, the retention of past attitudes and expectations for economic expansion and consumption are just so many left over mental habits.

The financial crisis was the cataclysm that revealed the unstable foundation of the modern Western economy. Nations cannot fund a burgeoning welfare state on the back of permanently loose credit. No matter how tame inflation appears to be, the result is always a bubble market and then collapse. Cheap money does not foster economic growth. Consumption without the requisite economic expansion to pay for it is a dead end, as is a state that rewards non-productive activity over work as social policy.

But before we write the end of Western economic dominance let us look at where the United States and Europe are at this moment.

It has been almost three years since the sub prime housing crisis in the United States and its ramifications catapulted the world into the longest economic crisis in three generations. We have, thus far, escaped the worst that was thought to be imminent in fall of 2008. The global financial system did not fail; unemployment in most of the developed world while severe is nowhere near the levels of the 1930s. The destruction of GDP has been minimal compared to the Depression and even equities have fared much better than in the fall that followed upon October 1929, when the Dow lost 90 percent of its pre crash value and did not return to the level of the Roaring Twenties for twenty five years.

For the spendthrift US and European governments either solution to their deficit and debt problems will damage what potential for economic growth is left. The more debt governments amass the greater the chance for a high interest rate future as investors demand heightened return before taking on government debt. And if a government cuts benefits and spending enough to dent the deficit, the crash in government expenditures will deepen and prolong the recession. There are no good fiscal and economic choices.

In Europe and the United States growth has resumed but with little indication that it will be sufficient to reduce the huge burden of unemployment on consumption and economic growth. World trade will not provide the engine for economic progress. Exporting nations cannot improve their domestic economy by sending goods overseas if there are few buyers and if export expansion is the goal of all nations at the same time. The Obama administration's stated idea of improving US exports enough to bolster the American manufacturing sector is optimistic and naïve because it assumes foreign buyers where there are none.

The European conception of austerity for Greece, but not for Spain, Italy and Portugal is a pleasant fiction. If Greece receives assistance, if German workers who can retire only at 65 are forced to subsidize Greek workers who can retire at 58 then the entire European democratic social construct is bankrupt. The European economies do not generate enough cash to support their own social payments. The choices are stark, cut social spending and reveal to the population that there are few jobs and little chance for economic improvement, or permit sovereign bankruptcy and endure the financial and social chaos that will follow. The prescribed austerity will inflict a damaging recession on Greece and any other country that is forced to accept a bailout from the EMU. In a trading bloc like the EMU austerity for some must damage growth for all.

American economic growth in the fourth quarter, revised to 5.9% is far more fragile than apparent. More than half the quarter's expansion was generated by restocking of business inventory. Real final sales, the actual expansion of consumer spending grew by only 1.7% in the fourth quarter. New home sales and existing home sales have plummeted. Government support for the housing market in the form of a tax credit for home buyers only succeeded in pulling future home sales forward, not creating economic activity. Jobless claims have climbed since January and consumer confidence in February was at the lowest point in 30 years barring the extreme lows in the fall of 2008 and the following spring.

Europe or the United States no longer have self-sustaining economies. This has been true for a number of years as borrowing has risen faster than economic growth and therehas been no political will or consensus to curb spending. But it took the financial crisis to reveal the extent of the Western economic rot.

1 Mar 10 : A very good day for Yanlord

2010-03-01T21:00:00.000+08:00

Yummy ! :)

======

Pre-Market Open Commentary for 01 March 2010

DJIA: 10325.26 +4.23
Nasdaq Composite: 2238.26 +4.04

US stocks ended little change last Friday as investors remained cautious following a surprise drop in existing home sales for January to 5.05 mil unit rate, worse-than-expectations of a rise to 5.5 mil unit rate, from a revised 5.44 mil unit rate in December while AIG reported a weaker-than-expected US$9 bil quarterly loss.

Other economic reports released were mixed with 4Q09 GDP growth at 5.9% annual rate, compared to the initial reported rate of 5.7%. The Chicago purchasing managers’ index on regional manufacturing rose to 62.6 in February, ahead of expectations of a fall to 59.7, from 61.5 in the previous month. In contrast, consumer sentiment index came in worse-than-expected dipping to 73.6 in February, against expectations of a rise to 73.9, from 73.7 in January.

For the week, all the major indices ended lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.74% and S&P 500 declined 0.42% to end at 1104.49. Nasdaq composite dipped 0.25%.

A stream of economic reports due this week will set the market tone and these include the highly-anticipated jobs report, retail sales, auto sales and factory order. Monday will bring the January personal income and spending reading, inflation report, construction spending and ISM manufacturing index.

In Singapore today:

News of a rise in Singapore manufacturing output in January by 39.4% over last year brought cheers to the market but concerns over the weak US job figure and Greece’s debt crisis dampened sentiment. The STI index closed only marginally higher on Friday, adding 1.71 points to 2750.86. For the week, the STI declined 6.28 points, or 0.22% lower.

In light of disappointing reports on consumer confidence, jobless claims and home sales from US last week, as well as lingering concerns over Greece debt woes and China’s bank lending curbs, we expect market sentiment to be cautious to the start of March. Economic reports released from US in the coming week will shed more light on the state of the US economy.

===

Mid Day March 1. Asian bourses mostly higher.

Asian bourses were mostly higher led by mining issues and encouraged by fresh murmurs that a help plan for Greece would soon be announced. The STI index rose 20.39 points at 2771.25 points. For every stock that fell, 1.5 rose. Turnover was 834mil shares with a value of $716mil traded.

Shares of Wilmar rose 15 cents at $6.65 after it turned in a decent profit helped by volume growth across its products segments. The results were above consensus expectations. Shares of Golden Agric, IndoAgric, Noble Group, Olam and Straits Asia rose between 2 and 6 cents following demand for resource stocks in the region. Venture Corp's better than expected results helped boost the counter 17 cents higher at $8.61. A local broker issued a buy report with a target of $9.03. Talks of short covering triggered a bounce in the shares of Genting Singapore that rose 1.5 cents at 91 cents.

China's lastest PMI data came in at 52 points, a dip from the previous month number of 55.8 points. The below consensus number suggested that the pace of manufacturing expansion was slowing down and probably meant the authorities could put off a rate hike soon. Trading interests in S-chips appeared active with shares of Pac-Andes, Yanlord, Cosco Corp, China Fishery Group, Sinotel and Epure International added 1 and 8 cents.

On the balance, shares of STX PanOcean, UOB, Jardine C&C, CNA, Haw Par and PSL eased between 1 and $1.00.

========

26 Feb 10 : Month Closing....

2010-02-26T20:45:00.000+08:00

Pre-Market Open Commentary for 26 February 2010

DJIA: 10321.03 -53.13
Nasdaq Composite: 2234.22 -1.68

US stocks ended with modest losses on Thursday following bigger selloffs in earlier trading led by downgrades by Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s on Greece’s debt ratings should the country fail to implement austerity measures to rein in deficit. Weak reports on the jobs market and factory orders further dampened sentiment, with the number of new claims for unemployment jumping last week to 496,000, worse-than-expectations of 460,000, from a revised 474,000 the previous week; claims have jumped 12% over the past two weeks due to the impact of severe winter storms on the east coast. In a separate report, durable goods orders rose 3% in January fueled by aircraft demand, ahead of expectations of a 1.5% increase, from a rise of 1.9% in December. However, orders excluding transportation came in worse-than-expected, falling 0.6% in January, against expectations of a rise of 1%, from an increase of 2% in December.

On the corporate front, Coca-Cola is looking to buy the North American operations of its largest bottler, Coca-Cola Enterprise (CCE) that will cut costs and provide it more control of its distribution. The multi-layer deal will result in Coca-Cola giving up its 34% stake in CCE worth about US$3.4bil and taking on US$8.9bil in debt.

All the major indices ended lower with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 0.51% while S&P 500 fell 0.21% to 1,102.93. Nasdaq composite dipped marginally by 0.08%.

Friday is a busy day for economic news with the release of the second reading on 4Q09 GDP growth, which is expected to remain unchanged from the first reading at 5.7%. The regional read on manufacturing, revised reading on consumer sentiment and existing home sales as well as the quarterly results of Berkshire Hathaway are also scheduled on the same day.

US light crude oil for April delivery fell US$1.83 to settle at US$78.17 a barrel.

In Singapore today:

Despite Wall Street’s overnight gains on Wednesday, led by Fed Chairman’s reassurance that interest rates will stay low for the foreseeable future, Greece’s mounting problems over debt and talks of downgrades by Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s on the country’s debt ratings rattled the Asian markets. Concerns over the weak US job market and weak housing sales further dampened market sentiment. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.33% while Nikkei fell 0.95%. The earlier advance failed to gain traction on the STI index as profit taking limited its upside. The STI index ratcheted off the 2774 high to end 12.99 points down at 2749.15 points. For every stock that rose, 1.7 fell. Turnover was 1.27bil shares with a value of $1.05bil traded.

Straits Asia's results came in below consensus and it did not provide updates on its FY10 contracts. At least one broker downgraded the stock to a sell with a price target of $1.73 on lower earnings projections. The stock eased 7 cents at $2.07. IndoAgri reported profits this morning that was in line with expectations. Stock fell 4 cents at $2.11 as traders opted for quick profits while awaiting more details from an analyst briefing this morning. New listing Cogent debut at 24 cents but subsequently eased to end at 22.5 cents, which was still 0.5 cents above its 22 cents offering.

Expect market to be range bound with downside bias today taking leads from the modestly weaker overnight close in Wall Street. Ahead of the weekend, investors are unlikely to take fresh positions in light of the lingering debt problems in Greece, which continues to dampen sentiment.

======

Mid Day February 26. Asian markets mostly higher.

Wall Street recovered from its earlier slump to close between 0.1 and 0.5 per cent lower on rekindled fears about the economy. One prominent banker expressed fears of a "double dip" scenario given that `there are huge potential negatives out there'. Asian markets were mostly higher, helped by a retracement in the dollar's strength. The STI index eased 3.70 points to 2745.45 points. Market breadth was flat at best. Turnover was 687mil shares with a value of $724mil traded.

Shares of Genting Singapore plummeted 3 cents at 88 cents on 163mil shares on rumours of a rights issue. Dealers said there was little to play for `now that the casino is open. Classic buy on rumours, sell on news'.

Straits Asia fell a second day, erasing 7 cents at $2.00 after a series of downgrades after the company reported a lower than expected set of results yesterday. Recent ipo Cogent fell 1 cent at 21.5 cents as traders regurgitated their positions when the stock fell below its 22 cents ipo level. Other shares that fell were Jardine C&C, Jardine Matheson, UOB, Hyflux, SParkway, Olam, Keppel Land, UOL and Fortune REIT eased between 2 and 72 cents.

China Environment rose 3 cents at 30 cents after the company announced results that comforted investors. The stock has plunged in recent weeks on rumours of accounting problems. A dealer said the higher price was due to `re-stocking' by those who sold earlier amid talks that company may soon announce contract wins. Z-Obee rose 1.5 cent at 36 cents; ahead of its dual-listing ( the Hong Kong ipo price of Singapore equivalent of 32.5 cents) on Monday. Others like Great Eastern Holdings, APB, F&N, DBS, Semb Corp, Keppel Corp and Semb Corp rose between 2 and 20 cents.

=====

Market close Feb 26. Stocks close off day's high

Asian markets were mainly higher today, h elped by a retracement in the dollar's strength, but still closed off the day‚s high on profit taking ahead of the weekend and continued uncertainty as to whether the world will see a double dip recession. The STI index eased 1.71 points to 2750.86 points. Market breadth was flat at best. Turnover was 1.28bil shares with a value of $1.45bil traded.

Shares of Genting Singapore plummeted 1.5 cents at 89.5 cents on 235mil shares on rumours of a rights issue. Dealers said there was little to play for `now that the casino is open. Classic buy on rumours, sell on news'.

Straits Asia fell a second day, erasing 5 cents at $2.02 after a series of downgrades after the company reported a lower than expected set of results yesterday.

Yesterday‚s IPO debutante, Cogent fell 1.5 cent at 21 cents as traders regurgitated their positions when the stock fell below its 22 cents offer price.

Other shares that fell were Jardine C&C, Jardine Matheson, UOB, Sp Land, Ve n ture and City Dev, eased between 6 and 72 cents.

China Environment rose 7.5 cents at 34.5 cents after the company announced results that comforted investors. The stock has plunged in recent weeks on rumours of accounting problems. A dealer said the higher price was due to `re-stocking' by those who sold earlier amid talks that company may soon announce contract wins.

Z-Obee rose 4.5 cent at 39 cents; ahead of its dual-listing ( the Hong Kong ipo price of Singapore equivalent of 32.5 cents) on Monday. Others like APB, Great Eastern, and Elec, rose between 16 and 70 cents.

The Commandants of Foreign Exchange Currency Trading

2010-02-26T15:36:00.000+08:00

I failed all :)

But these are just jokes anyway :)

====

1. If you cannot quickly recite the daily, weekly and monthly support & resistance values for any pair you're planning to trade with an EA, you shouldn't be trading.

2. If you can't manually calculate the currency exchange conversion values for any pair you're planning to trade with an EA, you shouldn't be trading.

3. If you cannot read and understand the code of an EA you're planning to trade with, you shouldn't be trading with it.

4. If you haven't learned to successfully trade manually for at least a year or two, you shouldn't be mechanically trading trading with an EA.

5. 99% of all EA's are destined to fail. Some sooner, some later.

6. Technical indicators don't work. They're a big fib to appease retail traders.

7. Knowledge of only price action, a few key patterns, and support/resistance is necessary to trade.

8. If you cannot quickly name the 10 key news events and their dates/times during the upcoming month, you shouldn't be trading.

9. You're worst enemy in trading is your broker.

10. Broker Pip spreads are only a portion of your trade cost. You are regularly gouged by slippage costs. If your EA has a default slippage value of 3, guess what your typical slippage will be? If it's set to 4, guess what your typical slippage will be?

11. The only EA's that will be profitable are the ones that are cleverly designed to out-fox the brokers and other insideous market forces by resorting to tricks, gimmicks, and smoke & mirrors tactics.

12. Any EA's freely available publicly will lose your trading account.

13. 95% of "traders" on public forums are as uneducated as you are about trading. Be wary of free advice.

14. The average trader who is persistent and lucky enough to eventually become a profitable trader regularly will first lose $20K - $30K in the markets and spend another $10K on books, lessons, eBooks, subscriptions and software. The rest will perish somewhere along that path.

15. The amount of time you are "exposed" in the market through active trading, either manually or mechanically, is inversely proportional to your profitability success rate.

16. Two high probability trades yielding 15 pips each and using a lot size of 50 is all you need each week.

25 Feb 10 : IPO not so cool

2010-02-25T19:00:00.000+08:00

Pre-Market Open Commentary for 25 February 2010
DJIA: 10374.16 +91.75
Nasdaq Composite: 2235.9 +22.46

Wall Street was clued into Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s statement overnight, giving his semi-annual assessment of the economy. Mr Bernanke reassured that low interest rates were here to stay for some time, and that last week's move to raise the rate for emergency loans to banks was not indicative of more changes to come.

This led to a relief rally of sorts on Wall Street, but lower than expected new home sales reined in any undue euphoria. New home sales fell 11 per cent to a 309,000 annual unit rate from 348,000 in the previous month. Market consensus was going for an increase to a 354,000 annual unit rate.

In other news, there were reports Citigroup could be looking to sell its hedge fund business.

A continued rise in energy demand, coupled with a fall in inventory levels, helped push crude prices up. Crude for April delivery added US$1.14 to US$80 per barrel.

In Singapore today:

Investor sentiment remained cautious yesterday in the second session and though the STI index closed off the day’s lows, there was noticeable selling towards the close, resulting in the benchmark STI closing 20.41 points down at 2762.14 points. For every stock that fell, about 1.2 rose. Turnover was 1.2bil shares with a value of $1.2bil traded.

Dealers said trading was unusually choppy the last two days and could be linked to the rollover of index futures contract today.

We think there could be further correction in the property counters today as the Hong Kong government’s move yesterday to raise the stamp duty on luxury property sales, in a targeted move to prevent a property bubble, could reverberate into the local market here where the Singapore government has also stated it is watching the situation. The HK government further warned that more measures could follow if this was deemed to be insufficient, and that it would be adding more to supply as well.

On the corporate front, shares of Broadway rose 6.5 cents at 92 cents after the company announced a dividend of 3 cents alongside its good results. Noble Group bounced from its $3.03 nadir to close down 1 cent at $3.11 after reporting results that were in line with expectations.

CWT shares rose 3 cents at 91.5 cents on rumours that it may announce a special dividend with its results.

======

Mid Day February 25. STI's upside limited by profit taking.

Asian markets were more obsessed with the falling Euro dollars than Fed Chief Bernanke's speech last night that sparked a Wall Street rally. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke pledged to keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future, that temporarily pulled the US dollar lower. The lower dollar helped lift stocks as risk appetite returned. Twelve hours later, the Euro dollars plummeted towards the lows of 2010 as fears about Greece got rekindled. The US dollar rose as traders squared positions.

Traders said volatility in the last few sessions lasting into (the first few days) the new month could be due to the expiration of current month futures contracts. The advance failed to gain traction on the STI index as profit taking limited its upside. The STI index ratcheted off the 2774 high to end 16.82 points down at 2745.23 points. For every stock that rose, 2 fell. Turnover was 796mil shares with a value of $586mil traded.

Straits Asia's results came in below consensus and it did not provide updates on its FY10 contracts. At least one broker downgraded the stock to a sell with a price target of $1.73 on lower earnings projections. The stock eased 7 cents at $2.07. Indoagri reported profits this morning that was in line with expectations. Stock fell 4 cents at $2.11 as traders opted for quick profits while awaiting more details from an analyst briefing this morning. Ezion shares rose half cent at 74.5 cents after its strong results came in above expectations. Traders said the stock could have another renewed upmove if it announces a contract win from the phase II of the Gorgon project. New listing Cogent debut at 24 cents but subsequently eased to end at 23 cents . This was still 1 cents above its 22 cents offering.

Shares of Jardine C&C, Jardine Matheson, Cosmosteel, SGX, Parkway, SingTel, Keppel Corp, SIA and Kim Eng fell between 2 and 26 cents.

====

Market close Feb 25. Profit taking caps any attempt to rally

An attempt to rally in the S ingapore bourse failed to take off as profit taking limited its upside. The STI index ratcheted off the 2774 high to end 12.99 points down at 2749.15 points. For every stock that rose, nearly 2 fell. Turnover was 1.26bil shares with a value of $1.05bil traded.

Straits Asia's results came in below consensus and the group also did not provide updates on its FY10 contracts. At least one broker downgraded the stock to a sell with a price target of $1.73 on lower earnings projections. The stock eased 7 cents at $2.07.

Indoagri reported profits this morning that was in line with expectations. Stock fell 4 cents at $2.11 as traders opted for quick profits while awaiting more details from an analyst briefing this morning. Ezion shares gained 1 cent at 75 cents after its strong results came in above expectations. Traders said the stock could have another renewed move upwards, if it announces a contract win from the phase II of the Gorgon project.

New listing Co g ent made a debut at 24 cents but subsequently eased to end at 22.5 cents. This was still 0.5 cents above its 22 cents offering.

Shares of Jardine C&C, STX Panocean, JSH, and DBS, fell between 4 and 24 cents.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence for Feb 2010

2010-02-25T09:08:00.002+08:00

Consumer Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Yesterday's Conference Board Consumer Confidence number for February seems to have been lost in the news flow, but with two notable exceptions it was the lowest on record (the series began in 1967,1985=100). The seven months from October 2008 until April 2009 were all weaker--in order beginning in October: 38.8, 44.7, 38.6, 37.4, 25.3, 26.9, and 40.8. Job losses averaged 685,000 per month and included the highest number lost for the period at 779,000 in January of last year. In December 1974 the Conference Board also recorded a lower confidence number at 43.2. That month the economy shed 602,000 jobs, also towards the end of a severe recession. Job losses continued to be heavy for four more months into 1975.

The puzzle in this February's number is that the worst of the jobs losses are well behind the economy. Some commentators have blamed the severe winter weather in much of the country for depressing spirits, but it snows every year. More blame can probably be placed on the lack of job creation this time around. In 1974 from the peak of job losses in December the economy had begun to produce jobs only five months later in May 1975. June 1975 recorded another loss, but from July on the economy averaged 250,000 new jobs per month for the rest of the year. It has already been more than a year from the peak job loss in this recession last January. The extreme duration more than anything else is probably what is weighing on consumer sentiment.

24 Feb 10 : Weird Feeling about the Markets

2010-02-24T22:00:00.000+08:00

Pre-Market Open Commentary for 24 February 2010
DJIA: 10282.41 -100.97
Nasdaq Composite: 2213.44 -28.59

US stocks tumbled on Tuesday following a plunge in US consumer confidence by more than 10 points in February, reflecting investors’ growing pessimism about the strength of the economic recovery as consumer spending fuels about two-thirds of US economic growth. The Consumer Confidence Index declined to 46.0 in February, worse-than-expectations of 54.8, from a revised 56.5 in January. Separately, the home price index fell 3.1% YoY in December, in line with expectations, from a YoY decline of 5.3% in November, but rose 0.3% from November, implying that the housing market is continuing to recover.

The corporate results of retailers were largely ahead of expectations. Home Depot returned to a profit in 4QFY09, which was better than expectations, from losses in 4QFY08 but issued a cautious 2010 outlook amid the still-fragile economic recovery. Target and Sears also reported higher-than-expected quarterly profits.

All the major indices ended lower with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 0.97% while S&P 500 fell 1.21% to 1,094.60. Nasdaq composite lost 1.28%.

Expect market sentiment to take leads from the highly-anticipated congressional testimony by the US Fed Chairman over Wednesday and Thursday. The Chairman is expected to discuss the economy and monetary policy and more importantly, may provide indications on the central bank’s plans to close out some of the emergency programs put in place during the height of the financial crisis. The economic reading on new home sales for January is also scheduled on Wednesday.

US light crude oil for April delivery fell US$1.45 to settle at US$78.85 a barrel.

In Singapore today:

Most of the regional bourses rallied on Tuesday as concerns over sovereign debt woes in Greece eased. Increasing hope that US Fed Chairman will keep interest rates at the current low levels and news of Dubai injecting fresh funds into heavily indebted Dubai World further lifted market sentiment. The Hang Seng index reversed from a 250 points decline to close 245.73 points or 1.2% higher, prompted by talks of goodies to be announced in tomorrow's budget speech. This is turned lifted most stocks in the local bourse from their nadir lows. The Taiex index also gained 0.49% and Kospi edged up 0.11%. The STI closed 25.09 points, or 0.91%, to 2782.55, led by local banks. For every stock that fell, 1.74 rose. Turnover remained light with 1.19bil shares with a value of $1.27bil traded.

Shares of Genting fell 1.5 cent at 95.5 cents after failing to breach the 98 cents resistance point. It earlier touched a low at 93.5 cents prompted by talks of short selling. Recently listed Sin Heng fell 2 cents at 25.5 cents but recovered to end 1 cent down at 26.5 cents. Traders wondered if the IPO issue manager had started to buy back shares as part of the stabilisation program. Resource stocks were off the lows of the session with shares of Wilmar, Noble Group and Olam rising between 1 and 8 cents.

Expect market to consolidate taking cues from the overnight tumble in Wall Street and as investors await the highly anticipated congressional testimony by the US Fed Chairman on Wednesday and Thursday.

========

February 24. STI lower at mid day

Asian stocks started lower dented by the po or US consumer confidence data that took Wall Street 1 per cent lower. Traders who took up stocks late yesterday probably threw them out again at the open bell on knee jerk selling. It wasn't all gloom and doom as a brighter Shanghai open and the subsequent recovery in Hong Kong's Hang Seng index inspired some bargain hunting and prompted some short covering. The STI index closed 19.12 points down at 2763.43 points but was off its 2749.4 points nadir. For every stock that rose about 1.3 fell. Turnover was 560mil shares with a value of $599mil traded.

Dealers said trading yesterday and today were unusually choppy and could be linked to the rollover of index futures contract tomorrow. `Just when you think the market was going down, it about turns' a dealer mused. Shares of Broadway rose 4 cents at 89.5 cents after the company announced a 3 cents dividend payout alongside its good results. Noble Group bounced from its $3.03 nadir to end unchanged at $3.12 after reporting results that were in line with expectations. CWT shares rose 3 cents at 915 cents on rumours that it may announce a special dividend with its results. Other shares that rose were Jardine C&C, Haw Par, IFS, SembMarine, UE, SATs Services and NOL that added between 2 and 58 cents.

On the balance, shares of Jardine Matheson, DBS, UOB, SGX, OCBC Bank, City Developments and SPH eased between 2 and $1.14.

======

Market close Feb 24. Investor sentiment still cautious in the second session

Investor se ntiment remained cautious in the second session and though the STI index closed off the day‚s lows, there was noticeable selling towards the close, resulting in the benchmark STI closing 20.41 points down at 2762.14 points. For every stock that fell, about 1.2 rose. Turnover was 1.2bil shares with a value of $1.2bil traded.

Dealers said trading yesterday and today were unusually choppy and could be linked to the rollover of index futures contract tomorrow. `Just when you think the market was going down, it about turns' a dealer mused.

Shares of Broadway rose 6.5 cents at 92 cents after the company announced a dividend of 3 cents alongside its good results. Noble Group bounced from its $3.03 nadir to close down 1 cent at $3.11 after reporting results that were in line with expectations.

CWT shares rose 3 cents at 91.5 cents on rumours that it may announce a special dividend with its results. Other shares that rose were Jardine C&C, HL Asia, SembMarine, H aw Tar, UOI and Indo Agri, that added between 5 and 46 cents.

On the balance, shares of Jardine Matheson, DBS, UOB, SGX, and Great Eastern, eased between 8 and 68 cents.

23 Feb 10 : Got into Yanlord again

2010-02-23T19:19:00.000+08:00

The gambler in me strikes again. Got into Yanlord (6 lots) at $1.76. Volume is still lower than Moving Average Volume but higher than the past few days.

Pray again :)

============

Pre-Market Open Commentary for 23 February 2010

DJIA: 10383.38 -18.97
Nasdaq Composite: 2242.03 -1.84

Following four-straight consecutive trading sessions of gains, US stocks ended a choppy Monday marginally lower as investors await the highly anticipated congressional testimony by the US Fed Chairman on Wednesday. Meanwhile, investors weighed corporate results, President Obama’s healthcare proposal and a corporate acquisition deal. Lowe’s reported higher-than-expected quarterly earnings and revenue and was upbeat that sales will continue to rise in the current financial year. Investors also took comfort from signs that regulatory changes proposed in Washington will be milder than feared, including provisions in President Obama’s health care reform plan. The 10-year plan of close to US$1 trillion plan that would cover more than 31 mil Americans currently not insured without adding to the budget deficit. On the corporate scene, Schlumberger is buying oil driller Smith International in an all-stock deal worth US$11 bil, which has already been approved by the board of directors of both companies.

All the major indices ended lower with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 0.18% while S&P 500 fell 0.10% to 1,108.01. Nasdaq composite dipped 0.08%.

Market sentiment will also take leads from a bevy of economic readings due this week. On Tuesday, reports are due on the housing market and Consumer Confidence Index. The corporate results of several retailers including Barnes and Noble, Home Depot, Macy’s and Target are also scheduled on the same day.

US light crude oil for March delivery rose US$0.35 to settle at US$80.16 a barrel.

In Singapore today:

It was a slow trading Monday on the local bourse as the market awaits the Budget announcement. The exuberance in the other regional markets did not catch on in the local market. The STI added 18 points but slid back to end a mere 0.32 points higher at 2757.46. In contrasts, Hang Seng gained 2.4%, Nikkei was up 2.7% and Kospi Index rose 2.0%, after the market’s knee-jerk reaction last week to the hike in discount rate gave way to a more measured take since the Fed’s move will not impact borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. Traders now saw the rate hike as confidence in the economic recovery. Fears about a meltdown in the Chinese stock markets abated when the Shanghai Composite re-opened yesterday after its week long close for the Chinese New Year holidays. The Shanghai market ended 0.5% lower in reaction to the latest PRC measures to cool the credit market. For every stock that fell, 1.6 rose. Turnover was light with 1.12bil shares with a value of $1.21bil traded.

The Singapore Government announced last Friday after the market closed further measures to cool the property sector. A seller's stamp duty and a lower loan-to-value limit of 80 per cent for all housing loans was largely seen as symbolic and targeted at speculators. Nonetheless, property counters fell as sentiments weighed on the sector. Shares of City Dev, CapitaLand, Wing Tai, Ho Bee and Keppel Land fell between 7 and 52 cents.

Expect market sentiment to be subdued and the local bourse to consolidate taking cues from the weaker overnight close on Wall Street and as investors await the highly anticipated congressional testimony by the US Fed Chairman on Wednesday and Thursday.

======

Mid Day February 23. Stocks recovered after spike in the Hang Seng Index.

Asian markets wobbled and tracked a lower close on Wall Street as traders mused on the next FED move. While general consensus point to a rate hike(FED fund rate) at the end of the year(at the earliest), some traders now think they may soon end its program to buy mortgage back securities at the end of the quarter. Stocks worked lower when the Shanghai Composite index shed over 1.4 per cent in early trading but managed to claw back from their nadirs. The STI index rose 3.73 points at 2761.19 points after a spike in the Hang Seng index prompted a short cover bounce here. Market breadth improved over the session to end almost flat. Turnover was 677mil shares with a value of 637mil traded.

Traders again moved to limit their exposure to the market as the rebound reached some resistance levels. A weak open in the Chinese indices had traders playing from the short side. The Hang Seng index reversed from a 250 points decline and about turned to a 250 points gain, prompted by talks of goodies to be announced in tomorrow's budget speech. This in turned lifted most stocks here from their nadir lows. Shares of Genting fell 1 cent at 96 cents after failing to breach the 98 cents resistance point. It earlier touched a low at 93.5 cents prompted by talks of short selling. Recent listing Sin Heng fell 2 cents at 25.5 cents but recovered to end 1 cent down at 26.5 cents. Traders wondered if the ipo issue manager had started to buy back shares as part of the stabilisation program.

Resource stocks were off the lows of the session with shares of Wilmar, Noble Group and Olam rising between 1 and 8 cents. Cosco Corp fell 4 cents at $1.24 despite reporting earnings to were largely in line. Traders said the spectre of further order cancellations appeared to weigh on the stock.

On the balance, Semb Marine rose 21 cents at $3.62 with its results beating street consensus. One analyst believes the company is on the verge of announcing several sizeable orders in the future. Others like WBL Corp, Cerebos, Jardine C&C, AP Oil and ARA rose between 2 and 54 cents

========
Market close Feb 23. STI rises towards the close

The local bourse got a boost from the pos itive US futures and also Hang Seng‚s higher close to overcome earlier lethargy. Stocks had inched lower when the Shanghai Composite index shed over 1.4 per cent in early trading but managed to claw back from their nadirs. The STI index closed 25.09 points higher at 2782.55 points after a spike in the Hang Seng index prompted a short cover bounce here. Market breadth improved over the session to close with 268 gainers against 154 losers. Turnover was 1.19bil shares with a value of 1.26bil traded.

Traders again moved to limit their exposure to the market as the rebound reached some resistance levels. The Hang Seng index reversed from a 250 points decline and about turned, prompted by talks of goodies to be announced in tomorrow's budget speech. This is turned led most stocks here from their nadir lows. Shares of Genting fell 1.5 cent at 95.5 cents after failing to breach the 98 cents resistance point. It earlier touched a low at 93.5 cents prompted by talks of short s e lling.

Recent listing Sin Heng fell 2 cents at 25.5 cents but recovered to end 1 cent down at 26.5 cents. Traders wondered if the ipo issue manager had started to buy back shares as part of the stabilisation program.

Resource stocks were off the lows of the session with shares of Wilmar, Noble Group and Olam rising between 1 and 8 cents. Cosco Corp fell 2 cents at $1.26 on 18.3m shares traded, despite reporting earnings that were largely in line. Traders said the spectre of further order cancellations appeared to weigh on the stock.

On the balance, Semb Marine rose 26 cents at $3.67 with its results beating street consensus. One analyst believes the company is on the verge of announcing several sizeable orders in the future. Others like WBL Corp, Cerebos, Jardine C&C, AP Oil and ARA rose between 2 and 54 cents.

-------

Fed Hike : What does it mean

2010-02-23T10:07:00.000+08:00

Discount Blues
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The Federal Reserve 25 basis point discount rate increase on Thursday to 0.75% was not a market moving event. The first Fed hike in either the discount rate or the more important fed funds rate in almost two and a half years will have little direct economic impact. It had no effect on the bond or mortgage market and little on banks whose Fed borrowing is directly subject to it. The 10 year Treasury closed higher on Friday.

The discount rate is not unimportant but its meaning is largely symbolic. It is the rate at which banks borrow overnight funds from the Fed at the discount window rather than in the private sector money markets. But since almost no bank has been using the window the hike will have no material effect on banks' cost of funds.

Historically the discount rate has been about 1% over the federal funds rate; essentially it is a penalty charge. With fed funds at 00%-0.25% the discount rate has probably two more 25 basis point hikes in the immediate future. The Fed itself said the increase represented a 'normalization' of lending rather than a change in policy. The FOMC statement for more than a year has included its assessment of the US economy as needing low rates "for an extended period" and Fed officials repeated this on Thursday when they announced the discount hike.

The fed funds rate is properly the Federal Funds Target Rate. It is where the Federal Reserve aims to keep rates in the private money markets by example and by intervention through the trading desk of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). If banks cannot access the private markets because of credit or liquidity constraints then they can borrow from the Fed directly at the discount window. Because of the implied impairment witnessed by use of the discount window banks have always been extremely reluctant to take this route. The window lets the private credit and equities markets know that an institution is in trouble, hence the term 'discount window stigma'.

The increase in the discount rate is a measure of the Fed and Ben Bernanke's willingness to return to normal interest rates and an estimate of the evolution of their economic and financial concerns.

Banks and the banking system are no longer on the front lines of distress. If they were or if the government still had serious concerns about their capital or asset structure the Fed would not have risked even this symbolic step. If the reported profits and bonuses of some of the banks that took government TARP money are one sign of returned corporate health, this rate increase is a second.

Consumer inflation, headline and core, are benign. In January CPI gained 0.2% and the core measure was negative at -0.1%. The year over year readings were 2.6% and 1.6% respectively. This was the first monthly fall in core inflation since December 1982. It has long been the Fed contention that inflation would be restrained by the recessionary inability of firms to raise prices and the deflationary effect of unemployment on wages.

But inflationary indicators are stirring. In January the Producer Price Index (PPI) gained 1.4%, almost double the expectation and more than three times the December reading of 0.4%. The yearly result was 4.6%; in December it was 4.4%. Over the past six months the rate of wholesale inflation has been 9.8%. The Fed may be correct that firms are currently unable to pass along price increases. But PPI seems to indicate building inflationary pressures that even a modest decrease in the unemployment rate may remit into consumer and wage inflation.

The Fed's estimated range for GDP growth this year of 2.8% to 3.5% will not appreciably reduce unemployment. The recent up tick in weekly jobless claims, the four week moving average has gained almost 27,000 in the New Year, a warning on the complete lack of job creation.

The discount rate hike is symbolic anti-inflation rhetoric. The Fed is unable to make a substantive rate move, even if it wanted to, in the face of a very weak job economy and uncertain prospects for long term employment growth.

More important for the real interest rate market is the ending of the Fed's MBS purchase program and its impact on residential and commercial mortgage rates and the housing market.

Housing is directly tied to the health of the banks and the stability of the financial system. Many institutions still hold large amounts of asset-backed paper with questionable mortgage portions. The housing market remains very weak and in most measures is close to historic lows. If the withdrawal of Federal support for the housing securitization market causes a spike in mortgage rates, and the Fed cannot be certain that will not happen, then the entire cycle of falling housing prices devaluing the existing mortgage assets on bank books, requiring more support capital, the cycle that almost brought down the system last fall, could reignite.

The possibility of the asset write-downs triggering capital requirements in the financial sector is considerably less than it was in the fall of 2008 because some of the mark-to-market rules have been relaxed. Banks no longer have to price assets for which there is no market reference well below residual value. Still, after the 2008 near death experience, Ben Bernanke and the Fed Governors will take no chances.

In the current American economic environment of low actual inflation, weak GDP growth, nonexistent job creation, a moribund and still dangerous housing market and a financial sector only in remission, the symbolic placebo of the discount rate is all the anti-inflation medicine the Fed can afford to prescribe.

22 Feb 10 : So China Market Did Not Crash...

2010-02-22T20:20:00.000+08:00

Pre-Market Open Commentary for 22 February 2010
DJIA: 10402.35 +9.45
Nasdaq Composite: 2243.87 +2.16

Following a weak open last Friday in reaction to the Fed’s decision to boost the emergency bank lending rate, the US market managed to claw out gains as the knee-jerk reaction gave way to a more measured take since the Fed’s move will not impact borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. The government’s reading on consumer inflation, which came in better-than-expectations, indicating that pricing pressure remains minimal, also helped lift market sentiment. Consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% in January, against expectations of a rise of 0.3%, after rising 0.2% in December while core-CPI declined 0.1% in January, against expectations of a rise of 0.1%, after rising 0.1% in December.

For the week, all the major indices ended higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.00% and S&P 500 climbed 3.13% to end at 1109.17. Nasdaq composite gained 2.76%.

A bevy of reports on the housing market, employment and GDP growth are due this week. The Fed Chairman will also be testifying on the state of the economy and monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Friday. On the corporate front, the quarterly results of Home Depot and Target will be due this Tuesday. However, on Monday, there is no market-moving company or economic news scheduled.

In Singapore today:

Most of the regional markets took a tumbled last Friday on concerns about the US Federal Reserves’ decision to raise the emergency bank lending rate. The STI did not escape the meltdown but managed to claw back losses towards market close, to end 12.05 points, or 0.44%, lower at 2757.14. For the week, the STI closed virtually unchanged, easing 1.76 points or 0.06%.

Expect the broader market to take leads from the positive overnight close on Wall Street last Friday as initial concerns over the Fed’s decision to raise discount rates eased given that the higher rates will not hike consumer or corporate borrowing costs. The property sector, however, is expected to react negatively to last Friday’s announcement by the government to impose a seller’s stamp duty and tougher rules on bank lending to curb property speculation. The new measures are expected to dampen sentiment on the property sector in the short-term.

========

Mid Day February 22. STI rose at mid-day.

Wall Street improved through the session Friday to close in positive territory as traders worked off the initial FED shock. For now, traders saw the hike in the discount rate as confidence in the economic recovery. Fears about a meltdown in the Chinese stock markets abated when the Shanghai Composite (SSEC) re-opened today after its week long close for the Chinese New Year holidays. At the time of this writing, the SSEC closed 0.2 per cent down and traded in a narrow range. The STI index rose 11.67 points at 2768.79 points. For every stock that fell, 2 rose. Turnover was light on 642mil shares with a value of $672mil shares.

The Singapore Government announced Friday after the market closed further measures to cool the property sector. A seller's stamp duty and a lower loan-to-value limit of 80 per cent for all housing loans was largely seen as symbolic and targeted at speculators. Nonetheless, property counters fell as sentiments weighed on the sector. Shares of CapitaLand, City Developments, Ho Bee, Allgreen Properties, Wing Tai and Keppel Land fell between 4 and 60 cents.

On the balance, shares of Genting Singapore, Noble Group, Indo Agric, Straits Asia, Ezra, Ezion, SIA, UOB, Jardine C&C, DBS and OCBC bank rose between 2 and 40 cents.

========

Market close Feb 22. STI closes flat despite positive start

Fears about a meltdown in the C hinese stock markets abated when the Shanghai Composite (SSEC) re-opened today after its week long close for the Chinese New Year holidays. While China indices eventually closed down, the volatile Hang Seng Index closed up 488 points up, and in the process, aided sentiments across the region.

But profit taking again whittled the gains in Singapore and at closing bell, the benchmark STI closed up a mere 0.32 points to 2757.46. For every stock that fell, 2 rose. Turnover was light on 1.1bil shares with a value of $1.2mil done.

There was profit taking in the property counters after the Singapore Government announced last Friday further measures to cool the property sector, and prevent a bubble. An additional seller's stamp duty on units sold within a year of purchase, and a lower loan-to-value limit of 80 per cent for all housing loans was largely seen as symbolic and targetted at speculators. Nonetheless, property counters fell as sentiments weighed on the se c tor. Shares of City Dev, CapitaLand, Wing Tai, Ho Bee and Keppel Land fell between 7 and 52 cents.

On the balance, shares of Jardine C&C, STA Panocean, SIA, and F&N, rose between 10 and 38 cents.

=======

The Four Stages of Market Rallies

2010-02-20T22:44:00.000+08:00

Which Stage Are We At Today ? :)

19 Feb 10 : All Eyes on Next Week

2010-02-19T23:30:00.000+08:00

Pre-Market Open Commentary for 19 February 2010

DJIA: 10392.90 +83.66
Nasdaq Composite: 2241.71

Following a volatile session, US stocks ended higher for the third-straight trading session notwithstanding the mixed economic readings, Wal-Mart’s cautious outlook and a stronger greenback. Weekly jobless claims jumped with the number of new claims for unemployment rising to 473,000 last week, worse-than-expectations of 438,000 claims, from a revised 442,000 claims in the previous week while continuing claims held steady at 4.563mil, instead of expectations of a decline to 4.5mil. The key inflation indicator, Producer Price Index (PPI) rose a seasonally adjusted 1.4% in January, higher-than-expectations of a rise of 0.8%, from a rise of 0.4% in December. Core-PPI also rose higher-than-expected with an increase of 0.3%, against the forecast of a rise of 0.1%, after registering no change in December, signaling inflationary pressure is starting to build after a period of little pricing pressure. The leading economic indicators also came in worse-than-expected with a rise to 0.3% in January, against expectations of a rise of 0.5%, from a rise of 1.2% in December. On a more positive note, the regional read on manufacturing rose to 17.6 in February, better-than-expectations of a rise to 17, from 15.2 in January.

The corporate results were also mixed with Dell reporting a weaker quarterly earnings and higher revenue that both beat expectations while Wal-Mart reported higher quarterly earnings that topped expectations but higher quarterly revenue that missed forecast. In addition, Wal-Mart’s sales of same-store fell 1.6% QoQ and the forward outlook was cautious with the company indicating that its US business is likely to continue to struggle in the tough economy.

Following the market close, the Federal Reserve also raised the discount rate by a quarter-percentage point to 0.75% although the Fed Fund rate is expected to remain unchanged at historical lows near zero for the foreseeable future.

All the major indices rose with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.81% while S&P 500 rose 0.66% to 1,106.75. Nasdaq composite climbed 0.69% higher.

On Friday, reading on the January core price index will be released.

US light crude oil for March delivery rose US$1.73 to settle at US$79.06 a barrel.

In Singapore today:

Positive leads from US were largely ignored by most of the Asian markets yesterday amid lingering concerns over Greece’s debt woes. There were also jitters over the possibility of selling pressure when the Chinese market open next Monday as the PRC bourse has yet to react to last Friday’s news about increasing bank reserve requirements for the second time this year. The Hang Seng was down 0.54% while the STI fell 24.87 points, or 0.89%, to 2769.19. For every stock that rose, 2.5 fell. Turnover was thin with 1.37bil shares with a value of $1.23bil traded.

Talks of funds selling took shares of Genting below the psychological $1.00 level to end 7 cents down at 95 cents on 368mil shares. Other decliners include Jardine C&C, STX Panocean, JMH, SIA, DBS, UOB and IndoAgri which fell between 9 and 40 cents.

Notwithstanding the positive overnight close in Wall Street, expect market sentiment to be cautious and some profit-taking today ahead of the possibility of selling pressure in the Chinese bourse next Monday as the PRC market has yet to react to news about raising bank reserve requirements.

====

Mid Day February 19. Asian markets were little inspired.

The US Federal Reserve surprised the market with a 25 basis points hike to the discount rate after the market closed. The discount rate hike(now at 0.75 per cent) is the first in three years and widely seen as a symbolic move. The FED also emphasized that the move doesn't mean it was tightening monetary policy and the current move was `intended as a further nomalization of the Federal Reserve's lending facilities'.

With the US index futures shedding close to 1 per cent (erasing much of yesterday's gains), Asian markets were little inspired. The US dollar's firming did not not go down well with risk takers as well. The STI index fell 29.55 points at 2739.64 points. For every stock that rose, 3 fell. Turnover was 861mil shares with a value of $774mil traded.

`The technical rebound appear to be over and we could now be resuming the downtrend' a trader said. `The US discount rate hike would be bad for sentiments now and traders are already musing over how the Chinese bourse would play out when they open next week - China announced a hike in the banks' reserve requirement last week' he added. Genting shares resumed its slide, shedding 2 cents at 93 cents on a staggering 255mil shares turnover.

Resource stocks fell with shares of Indoagric, Straits Asia, Olam, Golden Agric and First Resources easing between 1 and 7 cents. Other losers included Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, Keppel Corp, Ho Bee, Yanlord, City Developments, SGX and China Fishery Group that fell between 4 and 50 cents.

On the balance, shares of SIA, GuocoLand, Tiger Air, Osim, Wilmar and Seroja rose between 1 and 14 cents.

18 Feb 10 : Genting Goes Down the Drain

2010-02-18T13:15:00.002+08:00

Pre-Market Open Commentary for 18 February 2010

DJIA: 10309.24 +40.43
Nasdaq Composite: 2226.29 +12.10

US stocks gained moderately on Wednesday as investors weighed the better-than-expected economic reports and upbeat company news with mixed forecast from the Federal Reserve. Housing starts rose 2.8% in January to 591,000 unit annual rate, better-than-expectations of a rise to 580,000 unit annual rate, from 575,000 unit annual rate in December while building permits also topped forecast, falling 4.9% to an annual unit rate of 621,000 in January, against expectations of a fall to 620,000 unit, from 653,000 in December. The manufacturing reading was also upbeat with industrial production rising 0.9% in January, ahead of expectations of a rise of 0.7%, from a rise of 0.7% in the previous month while capacity utilisation rose to 72.6%, in line with expectations, from 71.9% in December.

Upbeat corporate news also lifted market sentiment. Walgreen will be buying rival drugstore Duane Reade for US$1.08bil including debt and the quarterly results of Hewlett-Packard, Merck and Barclays topped expectations.

However, the Federal Reserve released mixed forecasts with the central bankers saying that unemployment should decline only modestly over the next few years but gave a modest boost to the economic growth forecast to a targeted growth of between 2.8% and 3.5% in 2010 from an earlier forecast in November of between 2.5% and 3.5%.

All the major indices rose with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.39% while S&P 500 rose 0.42% to 1,099.51. Nasdaq composite climbed 0.55% higher.

Thursday brings numerous economic readings including the weekly jobless claims, index of leading economic indicators and the January Producer Price Index. The corporate results of Wal-Mart Stores will also be released on the same day.

US light crude oil for March delivery rose US$0.32 to settle at US$77.33 a barrel.

In Singapore today:

Overnight gains on Wall Street, following upbeat US data showing rapidly improving manufacturing outlook in New York, lifted Asian markets. The China and Taiwan markets remained close for Chinese New Year but the Hang Seng rose 1.3% and Nikkei gained 2.7%. The STI added 35.16 points, or 1.3%, to close at 2794.06 but traders pointed to 2800 as the key psychological resistance level. For every stock that fell, 2.1 rose. Turnover was 1.41bil shares with a value of $1.43bil traded.

Encouraging URA data showing private home sales in Singapore of 1,473 units in January, rising for the first time since July 2009, further boosted market sentiment and lifted property shares. But resource stocks were clear standouts, aided by the US dollar's weakness. Straits Asia jumped 12 cents at $2.21 and was tracked by Golden Agric, IndoAgri, Wilmar, Olam, Noble Group and First Resources that rose between 2 and 12 cents.

Expect market sentiment to be dampened by a surprise QoQ 8.9% dip in Singapore’s non-oil exports in January, due to weakness in the volatile pharmaceutical sector. Although exports soared 20.8% YoY in January, the numbers were pale in comparison to those of South Korea and Taiwan which soared 47.1% YoY and 75.8% YoY respectively, signaling that the export recovery in Singapore is still vulnerable. Expect some profit-taking in the local bourse today in the absence of fresh directions.

=====

Mid Day February 18. STI eased on profit taking.

A jump in the US dollars and the revisit of the Euro dollars to its crisis levels of 1.355 (EUR/USD) caused some panic and had some traders jettison their positions. `Certainly feels dicey and I wonder if Wall Street's lead can be maintained. China could start lower when they open next week' a dealer cautioned. The STI index eased 10.96 points at 2783.10 points on profit taking. For every stock that rose, 2 fell. Turnover was 742mil shares with a value of $612mil traded.

Talks of a contract win boosted the shares of Ezion that rose 3.5 cents at 72 cents. Peer Ausgroup rose 1.5 cents at 58.5 cents on similar speculations. China Fishery Group rose 3 cents at $1.83 after it said its application for a secondary listing in Oslo has been approved. Financial One Corp which is seeking to list a subsidiary in Taiwan rose 4 cents at 50 cents on rumours that it may soon announce further details on the proposed listing. Other advancing issues included Singapore Land, Dairy Farm, Bukit Sembawang, Venture Corp, Falcon Energy, ARA and Sunpower that rose between 1 and 10 cents.

Talks of funds selling took shares of Genting below the psychological $1.00 level to end 3.5 cents down at 98.5 cents on 171mil shares. Other like Jardine Matheson, SIA, DBS, CapitaLand, UOB, ST Engineering, HPL, SATS Services, Olam, Semb Corp and F&N fell between 2 and 80 cents.

=====

Market close Feb 18. Profit taking wipes out most of yesterday's gains

Some weakness in t he US index futures market, a slight appreciation of the greenback and the revisit of the Euro to its crisis levels of 1.355 ( EUR/USD) caused some panic in the markets today and had some traders jettison their positions. The STI index was in negative territory for most of the day and closed 24.87 points down at 2769.19 points on profit taking. For every stock that rose, 2 fell. Turnover was 1.37bil shares with a value of $1.23bil traded.

Talks of a contract win boosted the shares of Ezion that rose 2.5 cents at 71 cents. Peer Ausgroup rose 1.5 cents at 58.5 cents on similar speeculations. China Fishery Group rose 1 cents at $1.81 after it said its application for a secondary listing in Oslo has been approved.

Financial One Corp which is seeking to list a subsidiary in Taiwan rose 2.5 cents at 48.5 cents on rumours that it may soon announce further details on the proposed listing. Other advancing issues included Singapore Land, Great Eastern, HL Asia, SingTe l and ARA, that rose between 3 and 10 cents.

Talks of funds selling took shares of Genting below the psychological $1.00 level to end 7 cents down at 95 cents on 368mil shares. Other like Jardine C&C, STX Panocean, JMH, SIA, DBS, UOB and IndoAgri fell between 9 and 40 cents.

Commodities Push Asian Stocks Higher

2010-02-17T22:17:00.001+08:00

Asian markets rallied Wednesday, with resource shares rising sharply on higher commodity prices, while a weaker yen boosted Japanese exporters.

Hong Kong shares advanced as trading resumed for the first time this week after the Lunar New Year holidays, aided by Chinese lenders, which shrugged off the People's Bank of China's decision Friday to increase banks' reserve requirements.

Japan's Nikkei 225 advanced 2.7% for its best single-day percentage gain this year, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 added 2.2%, South Korea's Kospi gained 1.7% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index tacked on 1.3%.

Singapore's Straits Times Index climbed 1.3% as trading also resumed in the city-state after Lunar New Year holidays, while India's Sensex also advanced 1.3%. Stock markets in China, Taiwan and Vietnam remained closed. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were 12 points higher in screen trade.

Concerns about Greece were on the backburner, although European Union finance ministers Tuesday stopped short of an explicit rescue plan for the country. Traders said worries appear to have eased somewhat after the EU gave the fiscally stressed country until mid-March to devise a more comprehensive fiscal consolidation plan for 2010.

17 Feb 10 : Market Rock

2010-02-17T19:50:00.000+08:00

Pre-Market Open Commentary for 17 February 2010

DJIA: 10268.81 +169.7
Nasdaq Composite: 2214.19 +30.7

Wall Street returned from the Presidents Day holiday with a bang overnight, led by financial stocks after news that JPMorgan Chase would be buying a joint commodities venture, and Bank of America said it saw gains in the number of modified mortgages on its books. Barclays, a British Bank, also said profits nearly doubled in 2009.

Economic data was also encouraging. The Empire State index, which reflects manufacturing activity in New York State, rose to 24.91 in February from 15.92 previously. This was well ahead of the 19 expected by economists. Consequently, the major indices closed near the day’s highs.

Corporate earnings did not disappoint. Merck reported higher quarterly revenue that was ahead of expectations. Kraft Foods also had higher earnings but revenue came in a bit short of consensus forecasts leading to a slight dip in share price. The group added that the sale of its frozen pizza business to Nestle will cut 5 cents per share from annual profits but the recent purchase of Cadbury will give a boost to long-term growth.

Easing concerns about Greece's sovereign debt helped lift the greenback which partly led to a rise in crude futures. Crude for March delivery rose US$2.88 or nearly 4 per cent to US$77.01 per barrel.

In Singapore today:

Singapore shares will likely open higher today after a long weekend, with sentiment boosted by Wall Street’s firm jump. The benchmark ST Index had closed last week on a cautious note though it recovered 75.3 points or 2.8 per cent for the week to close at 2758.90 points. Volumes had been lower on average last week as the market was expected to trade within a narrow range ahead of the long weekend. This will likely mean some pent up buying is likely today.

Sectors that could see some interest include property – as news reports again reflect buying interest in new launches. Banks too, will get a lift from the improved sentiment.

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Mid day February 17. Surge on Wall Street overnight buoyed Asian markets

A surge on W all Street overnight buoyed Asian markets to a strong open on Wednesday as many markets open after their Chinese New Year holidays. Key Asian bourses knocked up 2 per cent gains as a dip in US dollars favoured risk taking. Commodities and resource stocks featured prominently in the gainer's list as traders `re-stocked' on positions as fears about sovereign debt defaults in the troubled European countries abated. The STI index added 30.18 points at 2789.08 points but traders were quick to point out 2800 as a key psygological resistance. For every stock that fell, 2.5 rose. Turnover was 812mil shares with a value of $772mil traded.

With the Chinese New Year holiday over and as news of the European rescue firmed up, traders are being enticed back into the market. `There is pentup demand on the sidelines and if the US dollars will stay low a while, this bounce could last a few days' a dealer said. Resource stocks were clear standouts, aided by the US dollar's weakness. Straits Asia jumped 12 cents at $2.21 and was tracked by Golden Agric, IndoAgric, Wilmar, Olam, Noble Group and First Resources that rose between 2 and 11 cents.

On the balance, shares of STX Pan Ocean, TPV, Kim Eng, SingTel, Asia Water, Sarin, Creative Technology and CFM eased between 1 and 24 cents.

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Market close Feb 17. STI meets some resistance at 2,800 level

Asian markets got a lift f rom Wall Street‚s buoyant overnight close and enjoyed a strong boost on Wednesday as many markets opened after their Chinese New Year holidays. Key Asian bourses chalked up 2 per cent gains as a dip in US dollars favoured risk taking. Commodities and resource stocks featured prominently in the gainers list as traders `re-stocked' on positions as fears about sovereign debt defaults in the troubled European countries abated.

The STI index added 35.16 points at 2794.06 points but traders were quick to point out 2,800 as a key psychological resistance. For every stock that fell, 2.5 rose. Turnover was 1.4bil shares with a value of $1.43bil traded.

As news of the European rescue plans emerge, traders are being enticed back into the market. `There is pent up demand on the sidelines and if the US dollar will stay low a while, this bounce could last a few days' a dealer said. Resource stocks were clear standouts, aided by the US dollar's weakness. Straits Asia jumped 1 2 cents at $2.21 and was tracked by Golden Agric, IndoAgric, Wilmar, Olam, Noble Group and First Resources that rose between 2 and 12 cents.

On the balance, shares of Shang Asia, Kim Eng, Genting, Asia Water, Sp Land and Sin Heng eased between 3.5 and 20 cents.