#GCC and #MiddleEast Finance News

#UAE stocks rise on robust corporate earnings | Reuters

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Fri, 24 Apr 2026 13:36:48 +0000

UAE stocks rise on robust corporate earnings | Reuters

Stock markets in the United Arab Emirates closed higher on Friday, with Dubai leading regional gains after stronger-than-expected earnings from the country's three largest lenders lifted ‌banking shares and supported broader sentiment, even as investors remained cautious amid the Iran war.

Dubai's main index (.DFMGI), opens new tab gained 0.7%, snapping two sessions' losses with top lender Emirates NBD Bank (ENBD.DU), opens new tab increasing 2%, while state-run utility firm Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWAA.DU), opens new tab advanced.

Emirates ⁠NBD (ENBD.DU), opens new tab said on Thursday its profit for the first quarter rose 3% to 6.4 billion dirhams ($1.74 billion).

The Dubai index logged a 2.2% decline, its first weekly loss after five positive sessions, while Abu Dhabi recorded a 1.3% weekly fall, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank recorded a 37% hike in first quarter net profit to 3.36 billion dirhams, while Q1 operating income jumped ‌18% ⁠year-on-year.

The banking sector's performance reinforced confidence in the underlying strength of the domestic economy, encouraging selective buying and providing broader support to UAE equities, said George Pavel, general manager at Naga.com Middle East.

"However, sentiment could ⁠remain cautious amid persistent geopolitical risks in the region".

Oil prices - a catalyst for the Gulf's financial market - declined on Friday after a Pakistani government ⁠source said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was expected to arrive in Islamabad on Friday night with a small team and peace ⁠talks with the U.S. were likely to take place.

Brent crude was down 0.9% at $104.16 a barrel by 1151 GMT .

Pimco Privately Lends $10B to Gulf States in Wartime Bond Deals - Bloomberg

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Thu, 23 Apr 2026 16:25:59 +0000

Pimco Privately Lends $10B to Gulf States in Wartime Bond Deals - Bloomberg

As Persian Gulf states build cash buffers to deal with any potential economic fallout from the Iran war, one large buyer has stepped in: Pacific Investment Management Co.

Since the conflict began on Feb. 28, Pimco has lent more than $10 billion to state-backed and government borrowers in the Gulf via so-called private placements, according to people familiar with the matter.

The $2.27 trillion asset manager has been a significant buyer of privately placed bonds issued by the governments of Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Kuwait, as well as by Qatar National Bank, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information. Pimco also participated alongside other investors in several placements that boosted the size of existing Abu Dhabi bonds by a combined $2.5 billion, they added.

In total, regional borrowers raised $13.8 billion from Feb. 28 to April 23, in privately placed bonds denominated in hard currency, according to data compiled by Bloomberg — meaning Pimco accounted for a majority of that lending.

Spokespeople for Pimco and Abu Dhabi’s Department of Finance declined to comment, as did the Kuwait Investment Authority, which handles the country’s debt transactions. Representatives for Qatar’s ministry of finance and QNB didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

Private placements are a trade-off for issuers. They can be more expensive than public debt, meaning they offer higher returns for buyers such as Pimco. In return sellers are able to borrow faster, with more privacy and greater flexibility on deal terms.

The coupon on Qatar’s privately placed bond was 4.8%. That was about 0.3 percentage points higher than implied by the yield curve for the country’s public traded bonds, according to Bloomberg calculations. The actual yield for bondholders depends on the price at which they bought it from the issuer, which wasn’t disclosed.

“Not all countries have the option of borrowing at reasonable interest rates at a time of geopolitical uncertainty. It’s notable that the three Gulf nations with the strongest balance sheets are the ones tapping the market,” said Ziad Daoud, chief emerging markets economist at Bloomberg Economics. “And they’re resorting to private borrowing instead of public issuance. The latter probably requires more disclosure and higher transparency.”

The Newport Beach, California-based Pimco has invested heavily in emerging market bonds. It opened an office in Dubai last year, joining a rush of investment companies seeking to deepen their presence in a region flush with sovereign wealth. Pimco said this move built on over 20 years of managing assets for investors in the Middle East.

Pimco intends to hold the bonds over the long term, one of the people said. Earlier this month, Pimco bought all of a $400 million bond issued by a Blue Owl Capital Inc. fund, in an important vote of confidence for the private credit specialist.

Gulf bond markets were among the busiest globally in recent years, with regional borrowers selling about $50 billion of public debt in the first two months of this year. But those markets have effectively shut since the conflict began.

Before a ceasefire between the US and Iran was agreed in early April, Gulf Arab states contended with thousands of missiles and drones over several weeks, intercepting the vast majority. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted energy exports — a key source of government revenue — prompting the International Monetary Fund to cut growth forecasts across the region.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday that many Persian Gulf allies had requested foreign exchange swap lines with the US, a day after President Donald Trump said an arrangement with the UAE is under consideration.

The UAE has informally inquired about a currency swap, if the economic and financial impact of the war worsens, people familiar with the matter had told Bloomberg News. The Emirati ambassador to Washington signaled the country had no need for external financing, and Bloomberg Economics’ Daoud described the inquiry as “a call for confidence, not a call for help.”

Most Gulf markets retreat on stalled US-Iran peace efforts | Reuters

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Thu, 23 Apr 2026 13:57:37 +0000

Most Gulf markets retreat on stalled US-Iran peace efforts | Reuters

Most Gulf stock markets ended lower on Thursday as concerns over stalled peace talks between Iran and the U.S. weighed on sentiment, with trade restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz still ‌in place.

Iran seized two ships in the strait on Wednesday, tightening its control over the key shipping route a day after U.S. President Donald Trump indefinitely extended a ceasefire but maintained a blockade on Iranian ports.

Top Iranian negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said a full ceasefire would only make sense if the blockade was lifted.

With the strait ⁠effectively shut, pressure on global oil supplies pushed Brent crude back above $100 a barrel.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab fell 1.2%, extending its losing streak to six sessions, weighed down by a 2.2% slide in Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SE), opens new tab and a 1.8% drop in the kingdom's biggest lender by assets, Saudi National Bank (1180.SE), opens new tab.

SABIC Agri-Nutrients Co (2020.SE), opens new tab dropped 5.1% after reporting lower quarterly sales, despite posting higher profit.

Strait of Hormuz disruptions and stalled diplomacy are keeping investors defensive, with only limited relief from the ceasefire extension, said Daniel Takieddine, co-founder and CEO of ‌Sky ⁠Links Capital Group.

In Qatar, the index (.QSI), opens new tab eased 0.1%, with the Gulf's biggest lender, Qatar National Bank (QNBK.QA), opens new tab, down 1.3%.

Abu Dhabi's index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab closed 0.4% lower, dragged down by a 2.1% fall in First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB.AD), opens new tab, even though the UAE's biggest lender beat forecasts with a smaller-than-expected 2% fall in first-quarter ⁠net profit.

Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI), opens new tab erased early gains to close unchanged. Emirates NBD Bank (ENBD.DU), opens new tab slipped 0.1% after the emirate's largest lender by assets reported a 3% rise in first-quarter profit. Budget airline Air ⁠Arabia (AIRA.DU), opens new tab gained 1.2%.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab bucked the trend to close 0.8% higher, with Commercial International Bank (COMI.CA), opens new tab rising 1.3%.

Mideast Stocks: Gulf markets fall as Hormuz closure dulls ceasefire optimism

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Wed, 22 Apr 2026 16:31:55 +0000

Mideast Stocks: Gulf markets fall as Hormuz closure dulls ceasefire optimism

Stock markets in the Gulf ended lower on Wednesday, as caution over the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz outweighed ⁠U.S. President Donald Trump's move to indefinitely extend the ceasefire with Iran. Trump said on Tuesday ‌he would extend the ceasefire to allow further peace talks aimed at ending a war that has killed thousands and rattled the global economy.

The U.S. Navy, however, maintained its blockade of Iran's ports and coastline, a move Tehran has described as an act of war. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles around 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, remained largely at a standstill.

At least three container ships were hit ⁠by gunfire in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, maritime security sources and the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said.

Dubai's main share index fell 1.1%, with most stocks ending in negative territory. Blue-chip developer Emaar Properties declined 2.2%, while Emirates NBD, Dubai's largest lender, dropped 1.8%.

In Abu Dhabi, the index lost 0.8%, weighed down by broad-based declines led ‌by real estate ⁠stocks. First Abu Dhabi Bank, ⁠the UAE's largest lender, fell 2.6%, conglomerate Alpha Dhabi retreated 1.4%, and Aldar Properties slid 1.8%. On Tuesday, Aldar said it had acquired, together with Mubadala, "The Link" at Masdar City for 654 million dirhams($178.06 ‌million).

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index extended losses for a fifth straight session, ⁠falling 0.9%, with almost all constituents in the red. Al Rajhi Bank lost 2%, while ACWA Power dropped 2.2%.

Oil giant Saudi Aramco , however, bucked the trend to rise 0.4%. Oil prices climbed after reports of attacks in Hormuz, with Brent crude futures up 1.2% at $99.56 a barrel. The Qatari index edged down 0.1%, as Qatar National Bank, the region's largest lender, fell 1.5% and Qatar Navigation lost 1.2%.

Qatar Gas Transport rose 1.1% after reporting higher first-quarter net profit. "Stock markets were under some pressure as investors consider the uncertain geopolitical outlook after diplomatic progress stalled in the region," said Milad Azar, market analyst at XTB ‌MENA.

"While current conditions could continue to weigh on sentiment, the earnings season ⁠could help alleviate the pressure.

Strong earnings could help stabilize the market, in addition to the solid local fundamentals," he added.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index was little changed as Commercial International Bank fell 2%, while Eastern Company gained 2.8%.

#Saudi IT Firm to Press Ahead with IPO Despite War Uncertainty - Bloomberg

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Tue, 21 Apr 2026 16:44:00 +0000

Saudi IT Firm to Press Ahead with IPO Despite War Uncertainty - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabian information technology services firm Dar Al Balad Business Solutions Co. is pressing ahead with plans to list on the kingdom’s stock exchange despite the disruptions caused by the regional conflict.

A shareholder of the firm plans to offer 21 million shares, representing a 30% stake, according to a statement Tuesday. The institutional book-building will run between Apr. 26 and Apr. 30, with AlJazira Capital and Emirates NBD arranging the offering.

The first-time share sale is expected to fetch less than $75 million, according to people familiar with the matter. Representatives for the firm did not respond to a request for comment.

Dar Al Balad is the first in the Gulf to launch a share sale since the war broke out on Feb. 28.

Saudi Arabian stocks proved to be resilient throughout the conflict, with higher oil prices boosting heavyweights such as Aramco, even as production and exports have been hampered by a series of strikes on critical energy infrastructure.

Leading stock markets across the region have rebounded since the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire earlier this month, though they’ve pared some of those gains amid uncertainty over the future of the peace talks.

Other Saudi firms, including a contractor and a real estate developer, are also pressing ahead with plans to list before their regulatory approvals expire in June, Bloomberg News has reported.

Initial public offering volumes have slumped across the Gulf so far this year — a slowdown that began even before the Iran war started.

Still, two smaller Gulf companies that have listed since the conflict began have posted strong gains: Kuwaiti convenience store operator Trolley General Trading Co. and Saudi Arabian miner Saleh Abdulaziz Al Rashed & Co., which are up about 42% and 30%, respectively.

Dar Al Balad was founded in 2001 by a former executive at chemicals giant Saudi Basic Industries Corp. and provides IT services and business solutions. It reported 315 million riyals ($84 million) in revenue and 51 million riyals in net profit in 2025, according to its prospectus.

KKR Wins Investment From #UAE’s $30 Billion Alterra Climate Finance Fund - Bloomberg

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Tue, 21 Apr 2026 16:31:00 +0000

KKR Wins Investment From UAE’s $30 Billion Alterra Climate Finance Fund - Bloomberg

A $30 billion fund backed by the United Arab Emirates has committed to invest in KKR & Co. Inc’s global climate transition fund.

Alterra, an Abu Dhabi-based investment vehicle that operates as a fund of funds, is overseen by the UAE and focused on clean energy investments. The vehicle, which has already announced deals with BlackRock Inc., Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. and TPG Inc., said in a statement on Tuesday the partnership with KKR is part of its commitment to invest in real assets that can accelerate decarbonization.

Details of the size of the financial commitment weren’t included in the statement.

Introduced at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai in 2023, Alterra is designed to enable blended finance by making it more appealing for private finance to back the energy transition through the use of de-risking structures. The UAE has said the model has the potential to unleash $250 billion of climate finance by 2030, much of which will be channeled into developing markets.

Growing demand for energy and an increased focus on the security of energy supply, as well as the increasing cost competitiveness of clean technologies, are driving investor demand for infrastructure across electrification, grid resilience and industrial decarbonization, Alterra said. KKR’s climate transition strategy invests in a number of companies that play into those themes from renewables, to energy storage and sustainable fuels, according to the statement.

The strategy is managed by KKR’s Charlie Gailliot and Emmanuel Lagarrigue.

Mideast Stocks: Most Gulf markets inch higher on hopes of US-Iran peace talks

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Tue, 21 Apr 2026 15:34:00 +0000

Mideast Stocks: Most Gulf markets inch higher on hopes of US-Iran peace talks

Most Gulf equity markets ended marginally higher on Tuesday, supported by reports that Iran ⁠is considering attending peace talks with the United States, raising cautious hopes for ‌diplomacy as the two-week ceasefire nears its end.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Tehran was "positively reviewing" participating in the talks in Pakistan, which is making efforts to U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, which has emerged as a major obstacle to reviving negotiations.

However, the official stressed that no final decision had been taken, while Iranian Foreign Minister ⁠Abbas Araqchi said continued U.S. violations of the ceasefire remained a serious impediment to the diplomatic process.

Iran's top negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, reiterated that Tehran would not negotiate under threat. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — which carries about a fifth ‌of global oil ⁠supply — remained limited.

Dubai's ⁠main share index - which fell 2.1% in the previous session - closed up 0.3%, helped by a 0.3% rise in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties.

In Abu ‌Dhabi, the index edged 0.2% higher. GCC equity markets ⁠stabilized as investor focus shifted to the next round of regional diplomacy, with improving expectations of de-escalation offering near-term support despite lingering geopolitical risks.

Oil prices are likely to remain volatile as the situation evolves, said Joseph Dahrieh, managing director at Tickmill.

"In the event of clearer diplomatic progress, UAE equities could be well-positioned to extend their recovery trajectory."

The Qatari index closed up 0.1%, with petrochemical maker Industries Qatar rising 0.8%.

On the other hand, Saudi Arabia's benchmark index dipped 0.2%, ‌with Saudi National Bank, the country's biggest lender by assets, ⁠losing 2.4%. Oil major Saudi Aramco eased 0.2%.

Brent crude futures edged down by 18 cents to $95.30 a barrel.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index gained 0.3%.

Middle Eastern bourses fall on renewed US-Iran tensions | Reuters

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Mon, 20 Apr 2026 14:35:00 +0000

Middle Eastern bourses fall on renewed US-Iran tensions | Reuters

Gulf equities ended lower on Monday, on fears the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran could unravel after the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo vessel, while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely suspended.

Hopes for a more lasting peace in the region dimmed after Iranian ‌state media reported that Tehran had rejected fresh talks and would not take part in a second round of negotiations the U.S. had hoped to convene before the ceasefire expires on Tuesday.

Now in its eighth week, the war has triggered a historic shock to global energy supplies, sending oil prices soaring as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.

Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI), opens new tab retreated 2.1%, snapping four sessions of gains, hit by a 2.3% ⁠fall in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU), opens new tab and a 2.9% slide in toll operator Salik Co (SALIK.DU), opens new tab.

Budget airline Air Arabia (AIRA.DU), opens new tab finished 3% lower.

Renewed Middle East tensions hit sentiment, with regional markets driven by geopolitical headlines and the Strait of Hormuz in focus after a shift in rhetoric over the weekend, said Daniel Takieddine, co-founder and CEO of Sky Links Capital Group.

Resilient domestic fundamentals may help limit the downside, while signs of de-escalation or strong earnings could support a rebound.

In Abu Dhabi, the index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab lost 0.8%, dragged down by a 2.7% decline in Aldar Properties (ALDAR.AD), opens new tab.

The United Arab Emirates has begun talks with the United States on a potential financial backstop should the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran deepen the Gulf ‌nation's ⁠crisis, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday. Reuters could not immediately verify the report.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab closed 0.9% lower, weighed down by a 1.2% fall in Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SE), opens new tab. On the other hand, Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab gave up early gains to end flat.

According to Takieddine, elevated oil prices could offer a supportive backdrop, helping to cushion downside risks and stabilize sentiment.

Brent crude futures advanced $4.37, or ⁠4.8%, to $94.75 a barrel, as investors dealt with conflicting messages about the war.

The Qatari index (.QSI), opens new tab lost 0.4%, with Qatar Islamic Bank (QISB.QA), opens new tab dropping 1.8%.

U.S. President Donald Trump had earlier warned that the United States would destroy Iran's bridges and power plants if Tehran refused his ⁠terms, repeating threats he had made throughout the war.

Iran, meanwhile, said any U.S. attack on its civilian infrastructure would trigger strikes on power stations and desalination plants in neighboring Gulf Arab states.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab slipped 1.1%, ⁠with Commercial International Bank (COMI.CA), opens new tab losing 1.6%.

Gulf equities mixed as Hormuz uncertainty caps ceasefire optimism | Reuters

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Sun, 19 Apr 2026 17:54:00 +0000

Gulf equities mixed as Hormuz uncertainty caps ceasefire optimism | Reuters

Gulf equities ended mixed on Sunday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran had committed a "serious violation" of the ceasefire, renewing uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz and ‌the state of U.S.-Iran talks despite his insistence that a peace deal would happen.

Iran's armed forces turned back two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday after warnings over what Tasnim news agency described as "unauthorised transit."

Tehran said on Saturday it was tightening control over the Strait of Hormuz and warned mariners ⁠that the vital energy route was closed again, while President Donald Trump said Tehran could not blackmail the United States by shutting the waterway.

Neither side disclosed details on the state of negotiations on Saturday, just days before a ceasefire in the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran is due to expire.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab declined 0.8%, hit by a 0.7% fall in Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SE), opens new tab and a 1.2% decrease in oil major Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab.

On Friday, oil prices settled roughly 9% lower after ‌Iran ⁠said commercial shipping could resume through the Strait of Hormuz for the duration of the ceasefire, and Trump said Tehran had agreed not to close the waterway again.

In Qatar, the index (.QSI), opens new tab finished flat in a choppy trade.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab gained 1.8%, ⁠buoyed by a 7.9% surge in Talaat Moustafa Group Holding (TMGH.CA), opens new tab.

The developer said it launched "The Spine" in Madinaty, a project worth over 1.4 trillion Egyptian pounds ($27.09 billion) that it expects will ⁠generate more than 1.7 trillion Egyptian pounds in sales. At maturity, it aims to deliver over EGP 50 billion in annual recurring revenue.

Iran War: What Is the Real Oil Price Right Now? - Bloomberg

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Sat, 18 Apr 2026 19:34:00 +0000

Iran War: What Is the Real Oil Price Right Now? - Bloomberg

For all my reporting life, I’ve dreaded one question: What is the price of oil — the real one? Invariably asked during a crisis, it demands a neat answer, a precise dollar-per-barrel figure. But each time my reply is anything but: It depends on what kind of crude we’re talking about, when it is being sold and where.

The Iran crisis is no different. Rather than offering a single price, what I can attempt is to shed light on today’s physical and financial oil markets, and why you can pick up a barrel of crude for $78 in Kansas or $286 in Sri Lanka.

In the midst of the latest Gulf conflict, oil has been an economic weapon and propaganda tool. Both Tehran and the US had been blockading shipments through the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway before at least a temporary reopening on Friday, and trying to jawbone the market in their favor.

Be wary of anyone saying one particular oil-price gauge matters more than the others. Whoever is betting on the cost of crude going up will argue Friday’s relief selloff doesn’t reflect reality, with shipping still severely disrupted. Those betting on a fall will have had their own views confirmed.

Over a Pricey Oil Barrel

Oil prices in the physical market have risen to an all-time high in nominal terms. But to surpass the 2008 peak in real terms, they would need to rise over $200

Source: Bloomberg

Broadly speaking, the oil market is split in two. The first part is the physical market, where real barrels change hands and they can be touched, smelled, almost savored. The second is visible only on computer screens. These are the printed financial contracts such as swaps, futures and options that change hands in electronic marketplaces. Traders call them paper barrels.

The financial and physical markets are, of course, linked. But they do different jobs. The former is where traders transfer oil-price risk. By nature, it’s anticipatory. Sometimes, it prices in expected supply disruptions days, weeks or even months before they happen. And it prices supply recoveries well before the black stuff flows again. It’s a window into a possible future, a distillation of probable outcomes. It isn’t, however, a forecast, just the price buyers are willing to pay today for a barrel that would be delivered in the future.

The physical market is where traders go to buy and sell straightaway the real stuff that goes into refineries. It reflects supply and demand right now. The key to prices is what kind of barrels are available, and how easily they can be accessed and shipped. It’s more about logistics than mathematical models.

Crucially, the supply of paper barrels is unlimited and that of physical barrels constrained, more so during a shock. Ilia Bouchouev, an ex-oil trader now at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, estimates the physical market has lost more than 10 million barrels since the war started. But the financial market has traded an extra billion barrels when all the different paper instruments are aggregated.

In normal times, the price of the financial and the physical markets are closely aligned, plus or minus certain differentials and ancillary costs. In these periods of calm, the easiest answer to “what’s the real price of oil?” is to look at any financial screen. Typically, all the paper benchmarks — Brent, West Texas Intermediate and Dubai — trade in unison, within a few dollars.

Want a Physical Barrel of Oil? Pay For It

Saudi Arabia is charging a record high premium over the benchmark for supply, reflecting the extreme tightness in the physical oil market

Sources: Saudi Aramco and Bloomberg

But these aren’t normal times. Physical prices have skyrocketed as refiners hunt for any barrels for immediate delivery. What used to trade a few cents above or below the paper benchmark is being sold at a premium of $10, $15, $20 or even higher. Saudi Arabia will sell its flagship Arab Light to European customers at a premium of $27.85 in May. Last month, it was a discount of 65 cents. “Physical transactions are under a lot of strain,” Josu Jon Imaz, chief executive officer of Spanish refiner Repsol SA, says.

And this is before adding ancillary fees, which don’t feel so ancillary any more. Freight costs that used to be $1 a barrel today set you back as much as $25. Insurance is a small fortune. These extra expenses don’t figure in the financial market because no one needs to physically move a paper barrel. But add them in and “the barrel of oil, door-to-door, is way above the headline price,” says HSBC Holdings Plc CEO Georges Elhedery.

This gap doesn’t mean the physical and financial markets are disconnected, or that the latter is broken, as many bloggers and Wall Street types claim. They’re simply doing different jobs and offering two different answers. In broad terms, the physical market tells the price from today to about 30 days ahead; the financial market usually from two months hence to 10 years out.

So what message is being conveyed? One of my go-to oil traders, who’s happy to impart (anonymously) the knowledge built over multiple crises, puts it simply: The physical market shows barrels are extremely tight today; but the paper market is saying that if you look at a distribution of possible outcomes a couple of months from now, there are many scenarios where that eases.

Oil Transportation Will Cost You a Barrel

The cost of shipping crude around the world used to be an afterthought – today it is so expensive that it cost more than one barrel of crude did a few years ago

Source: Bloomberg

The different timeframe is critical. In the early days of the war, the paper market was where the fears about the conflict’s impact showed up. The Brent contract surged to $120 in early March. But because of the excess supply sloshing about back then, its physical counterpart barely made it above $100. Now, the situation has inverted: The physical market is still pricing today’s scarcity; the financial market is pricing the end of the war.

The irony is that financial traders, oil speculators par excellence, have softened the Hormuz shock by pricing in its potential resolution. But oil refiners must live in the present. Security of supply overrides thoughts about price. My trader contact says refiners, particularly if state-owned, will pay whatever it takes to guarantee delivery. And they will do so in way that’s disproportionate to the actual oil shock because not having a barrel is existential — for a country’s energy needs and critical products — in a way that overpaying is not.

Geography matters to price, too. Colonial-era terminology still lives on in this market, with an imaginary vertical line dividing the world at the Suez Canal in Egypt. The current oil shock started east of there, and that’s where the physical market and shipping costs have been most affected. Back-of-the-envelope math suggests some eastern refiners are going to pay north of $175 for “landing prices” — the sum of the barrel cost, its transport expense and other elements.

The fallout is, however, moving westward. Asian refiners are shopping in the Atlantic basin, from Norway to West Africa. The cost of Dated Brent, the reference for the physical North Sea market, briefly surged to $145 this month.

Even if Hormuz reopens, as President Donald Trump promised Friday, the shock’s impact will spread further west. The US, the largest oil-producing nation, will become the barrel of last resort. This is the land of cheap oil. Its refiners are buying crude at absurdly low prices compared to Asia and Europe. And because they’re connected by pipeline, they pay regular transport costs.

How cheap is cheap? Look at the daily “Crude Oil Price Bulletin” posted by American traders, pipeline companies and refiners as a reference for physical purchases. In the April 15 edition, West Texas Intermediate was $87.77. Colorado Southeastern goes for $78.27. Wyoming Sweet is $84.87, and Nebraska Intermediate commands $77.77. A lucky refiner with access to Utah Sweet can get it for $76.98. Western Canadian Select, a benchmark for the Alberta oil sands, goes for about $72.

What's The Price of Oil? It Depends

The cost of a barrel depends of what kind of crude, when it is being sold and where. North America is far cheaper than the rest of the world

Note: Prices as settlement Apr. 15, 2026

Sources: Bloomberg, General Index, and Plains All American Pipelines LP

Looking at those prices, you grasp the geopolitical and economic significance of the US shale revolution and Canada’s oil sands. In the middle of a historic oil shock, North America is swimming in the stuff.

The ultra-low prices won’t last, however, unless Hormuz reopens fully. An armada of tankers is headed toward the US coast no matter what happens in the Persian Gulf in coming days. They’ll still load US crude even if the ceasefire holds. All things equal, North American oil costs would increase, and the rises elsewhere would be capped as eastern refiners access the US market. We’re already witnessing the start. Mars crude, pumped out of the Gulf of Mexico, is one of America’s more easily exportable varieties. Earlier this week, it went for $97.30 as it becomes the go-to US crude to ship.

I hope by now you recognize the difficulty of providing an easy answer on the “real” price of oil. And there are other factors to include, too.

First, should we refer to oil in nominal terms or real terms? In the latter, adjusted by the cumulative impact of inflation, oil prices would need to spike further to match previous crises. The nearly $150 record set in 2008 in both the physical and financial Brent markets is about $220 in today’s money.

And second, should we pay more attention to the price of the refined products consumers actually buy and less to the crude that refiners purchase? During an acute shock like the Hormuz shutdown, the cost of refined products such as gasoline and jet fuel rises faster than the stuff they’re made from. Politically and economically, that’s arguably much more important.

Ultimately, if cornered I’ll always say the physical market is king, and the price is always what’s paid today, not two months down the road. But I will insist on an average among regions, including North America.

On that basis, let’s say the real level this week was $125 or so. In a couple of months? There, probably, I’d listen to what the speculators are saying in the financial market. So far they’ve been proved right in judging the supply disruption and now the resolution. I agree, the price is headed lower.

#AbuDhabi Wealth Funds Weigh New Entity for China Investment Strategy - Bloomberg #UAE

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Fri, 17 Apr 2026 18:49:00 +0000

Abu Dhabi Wealth Funds Weigh New Entity for China Investment Strategy - Bloomberg

Abu Dhabi is considering plans to consolidate Chinese assets housed within two of its wealth funds under a new entity, setting the stage for a radical overhaul of its investment strategy for the world’s second-largest economy.

The proposed investment vehicle will be jointly owned by the two wealth funds, L’imad Holding Co. and Mubadala Investment Co., according to people familiar with the matter. This would help avoid multiple Abu Dhabi vehicles competing for the same deals as the emirate looks to boost its exposure to China, the people said, declining to be identified discussing confidential information.

Details on structure and strategy are still under discussion, and no final decisions have been made on the consolidation. Representatives for Mubadala declined to comment, while Abu Dhabi’s ministry of foreign affairs and the emirate’s media office didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Such a move would bring a critical economic relationship under the ambit of two influential names within Abu Dhabi’s circles of money and power.

L’imad is overseen by Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Khaled bin Mohammed, a son of United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed who has taken on more prominent national security and economic roles over the past year. Mubadala is helmed by Khaldoon Al Mubarak, who has handled key relationships for Abu Dhabi, including China, for years.

Al Mubarak was among executives who accompanied the crown prince to China this week for meetings with President Xi Jinping.

L’imad has exposure to China via sovereign investor ADQ, which it absorbed this year, while Mubadala has deployed over $20 billion across more than 100 investments in China since 2015. The two entities have close links — Al Mubarak and his deputy at Mubadala are both part of L’imad’s board.

Abu Dhabi, home to about $1.8 trillion in sovereign wealth, has emerged as one of the world’s most consequential investors in recent years. Its funds — which also include the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority — have historically skewed toward the US and Europe. The city has committed to invest over a trillion dollars to America and tens of billions more to countries like France and Italy.

Ties with China have deepened in parallel, despite unease in Washington over some deals. Non-oil trade between the two nations surpassed $100 billion for the first time in 2025.

Earlier this year, Al Mubarak said Mubadala had historically been under-invested in Asia but is now expanding its footprint, citing strong performance in South Korea, Japan and China in 2025. The push aligns with the $385 billion fund’s plan, laid out in 2024, to double Asia exposure to about 25% by the end of the decade.

The crown prince’s visit came amid a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran in a war that saw the UAE bear the brunt of the Islamic Republic’s attacks.

But the conflict hasn’t slowed Abu Dhabi’s appetite for dealmaking, and key entities have deployed billions across alternative asset managers, private credit, technology platforms and hospitality. This week, L’imad struck a $2.3 billion deal in Jordan, underscoring its role in advancing the emirate’s strategic relationships.

L’imad, which means “the pillar” in Arabic, made headlines last year after joining influential Gulf funds in backing Paramount Skydance Corp.’s hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. Abu Dhabi has also folded into it the owner of McLaren Automotive and its stake in Chinese electric-vehicle maker Nio Inc.

The fund’s board includes senior Abu Dhabi executives like Jassem Al Zaabi — viewed by some as one of the emirate’s most influential non-royals — though it is still being built from the ground up.

Mideast Stocks: #UAE stocks gain on hopes of US-Iran peace talks; #Dubai at 6-week high

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Fri, 17 Apr 2026 16:50:00 +0000

Mideast Stocks: UAE stocks gain on hopes of US-Iran peace talks; Dubai at 6-week high

UAE stock markets ended higher on Friday, gaining for the second week, with Dubai at a six-week high ⁠and outperforming its regional peer Abu Dhabi, on prospects of peace ‌in the Middle East. U.S. and Iran are likely to hold peace talks over the weekend in Pakistan, while a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel has taken effect. Hopes of peace have driven a global stock rally, while oil, a key component of the Gulf's economies, was pinned below $100 a barrel.

Brent ⁠crude was down 3.13% at $96.28 a barrel by 1144 GMT. U.S. President Donald Trump expressed confidence that an agreement with Iran could soon be reached to end the conflict, and urged the Tehran-aligned Hezbollah group to hold its fire.

Any ‌credible path to ⁠easing maritime ⁠risks in the Strait of Hormuz would likely bolster regional risk appetite and support economic growth, said George Pavel, general manager at ‌Naga.com Middle East.

Dubai's main share index rose 1%, ⁠led by gains in heavyweight real estate and financial stocks. It gained 4.8% for the week, its biggest in more than nine months. Top lender Emirates NBD Bank jumped 2% on Friday, while blue-chip developer Emaar Properties rose 1.1%.

Abu Dhabi's benchmark index edged up 0.03% and logged a weekly rise of 0.8%.

The index was supported by a 0.5% increase in Aldar Properties after the company announced the delivery of 9,000 ‌value rental homes in Mohamed Bin Zayed City and Baniyas, ⁠with a gross development value of 2.8 billion dirhams ($762.32 million).

UAE's largest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank also rose 1.6%.

The index gains were tempered by a 0.5% decline in its largest firm, International Holding Company, ‌and a 0.6% fall in UAE's third-largest lender Abu ⁠Dhabi Commercial Bank .

#AbuDhabi Fund Signs $2.3 Billion Railway Deal With Jordan - Bloomberg

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Thu, 16 Apr 2026 17:29:00 +0000

Abu Dhabi Fund Signs $2.3 Billion Railway Deal With Jordan - Bloomberg

A newly created wealth fund overseen by Abu Dhabi’s crown prince has signed a $2.3 billion pact for a railway project in Jordan, highlighting the role the entity is likely to play in advancing the emirate’s strategic relationships.

L’imad Holding Co. will partner with multiple Jordanian entities to build and operate a railway line connecting phosphate and potash mines to the port of Aqaba, according to a statement Wednesday. Work on the 360 kilometer (220-mile) project is scheduled to begin in 2027 and be completed over five years.

“This is the biggest investment that Jordan has witnessed over the past 25 years,” the country’s minister of transport, Nedal Katamine, said by phone. “It’s the largest project concerning transport in Jordan, and among the largest ones in the region.”

L’imad’s involvement in the Jordan deal — an extension of a $5.5 billion agreement signed in 2023 — signals the central role the wealth fund is expected to play in Abu Dhabi’s dealmaking.

The fund shot to prominence late last year after joining influential Middle Eastern investors backing Paramount Skydance Corp.’s hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. In January, the Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohammed became chairman, after which the fund absorbed sovereign investor ADQ. Abu Dhabi has also folded into it the owner of McLaren Automotive and its stake in Chinese electric vehicle maker Nio Inc.

Its board is stacked with senior Abu Dhabi executives, including chief executive Jassem Al Zaabi — described by some as among the emirate’s most influential non-royals — and wealth fund Mubadala Investment Co.’s CEO, Khaldoon Al Mubarak.

The $2.3 billion deal is also the latest indication that Abu Dhabi is willing to keep deploying capital despite a regional conflict that’s impacted key energy infrastructure across the Gulf.

The United Arab Emirates has been an ally of Jordan and its royal family, and views the country as a buffer against regional instability. Jordan, which borders countries including Israel and Syria, has faced an influx of refugees and conflicts on its borders that have strained its limited resources.

Katamine said the railway project would boost employment, cut transportation costs, strengthen the country’s competitive edge in phosphate mining and help make the Aqaba port “a gateway into Jordan.”

Mideast Stocks: Most Gulf bourses rise as investors eye possible Iran war deal

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Thu, 16 Apr 2026 17:10:00 +0000

Mideast Stocks: Most Gulf bourses rise as investors eye possible Iran war deal

Most Gulf equity markets ended higher on Thursday, as hopes for a deal to end the Iran war lifted sentiment, with investors also ⁠watching rising U.S. pressure on Tehran ahead of further talks.

U.S. President Donald Trump said the war launched ‌with Israel in late February was nearly over, even as the shipping blockade he announced came into effect and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained sharply below normal. Washington, meanwhile, warned it could impose secondary sanctions on buyers of Iranian oil ahead of further negotiations, just weeks after loosening enforcement of some Iran energy sanctions.

U.S. and Iranian officials were considering returning to Pakistan for further talks as early as this weekend, after negotiations on Sunday ended without a breakthrough. Pakistan's army chief arrived ⁠in Tehran on Wednesday as part of a mediation effort to keep the conflict from reigniting.

Dubai's main share index advanced 1.1%, led by a 2.6% rise in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties and a 4.1% jump in budget airline Air Arabia. Optimism over a potential resolution has lifted sentiment, but markets remain sensitive to geopolitical headlines, tempering a broader risk-on shift, said Hani Abuagla, senior ‌market analyst at XTB ⁠MENA.

Strong domestic ⁠fundamentals in the UAE may support a return toward earlier highs, while further diplomatic progress could add momentum. "However, ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz remain a key overhang, potentially capping near-term upside."

Meanwhile, the luxury hotel ‌Burj Al Arab in the emirate will shut for about 18 months ⁠for its first major renovation since opening in 1999, with guests to be moved to nearby hotels, according to a staff member.

The work comes amid pressure on Dubai tourism from the Iran conflict; the hotel also sustained minor facade damage in March from drone debris.

In Abu Dhabi, the index finished 0.3% higher.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index lost 0.3%, with Saudi National Bank - the country's biggest lender by assets - down 3.2%. However, the index is up 1.9% for the week, its seventh straight weekly gain, outperforming regional rivals on higher oil prices and the kingdom's ability to reroute exports.

Brent crude futures climbed 67 cents, or 0.7%, to $95.60 a barrel.

The Qatari index eased 0.2%, ‌hit by a 1.4% fall in Qatar Islamic Bank. Qatar - the world's second-largest LNG ⁠exporter - may extend its force majeure on gas supplies beyond mid-June, Italian importer Edison said, though it expects lost volumes to be replaced by U.S.

LNG rather than Russian gas. QatarEnergy cancelled 10 cargoes for Edison between April and mid-June after the war disrupted supplies. Iran's attacks knocked out 17% of QatarEnergy's LNG export capacity last month, its CEO said.

Outside ‌the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index rose 1.4%.

Gulf states turn to private deals in $10bn wartime borrowing spree

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Thu, 16 Apr 2026 09:20:00 +0000

Gulf states turn to private deals in $10bn wartime borrowing spree

Gulf monarchies have discreetly raised almost $10bn in private sales of bonds this month in their first international borrowing since the Iran war delivered a major hit to their economies.

Abu Dhabi has sold $4.5bn, Qatar $3bn and Kuwait $2bn in private placements of US dollar bonds since the start of April, sidestepping public markets where they typically issued debt before the war but where borrowing costs can be more uncertain.

The sales highlight how Gulf states have been using a tentative ceasefire between the US and Iran as an opportunity to quickly raise money, as they tot up the costs of lost oil and gas revenues because of the near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage from Iranian strikes.

Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, is raising “a little bit of extra cash just in case,” one banker familiar with its debt sales said.

The governments of Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Kuwait did not respond to requests for comment.

The Gulf states are among the richest in the world, with their sovereign funds and state investors collectively controlling well over $3.5tn in assets. But they have nevertheless become regular borrowers in debt markets, to help fund vast investment plans as they seek to diversify their economies away from oil and gas.

The Iran war is delivering a sizeable blow to their economies, with Qatar forced to suspend exports of liquefied natural gas and oil flows from Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates sharply reduced, hitting the bedrock of their economies.

“Even if the war ends soon, we expect all six Gulf states to record negative GDP growth this year of 5-10 per cent,” Capital Economics analysts said.

Although this month’s flurry of deals in the Gulf is unusually large, private placements — direct sales of bonds to small groups of investors — in sovereign debt are generally on the rise, even though they offer issuers a less diverse investor base and the bonds tend to be less liquid.

Big global asset managers such as Pimco are increasingly willing to buy bonds where they negotiate terms and pricing bilaterally, while governments receive more certainty on borrowing costs by working with smaller groups of investors.

“Pimco has been a longstanding investor and financing partner across the Gulf region,” said Pramol Dhawan, head of Pimco’s emerging markets portfolio management team.

“We view the region as a core part of our emerging markets and private credit franchise, and we remain ready to deploy further capital to support Gulf sovereigns as their financing needs evolve,” he added. He declined to say whether Pimco has participated in the recent flurry of deals in the region.

Abu Dhabi sold $2bn in debt with a coupon of 4.6 per cent in a deal organised by Goldman Sachs on Monday. Goldman declined to comment.

The emirate also raised $2.5bn last week through private placements of existing bonds, in deals arranged by Standard Chartered.

HSBC helped Kuwait to sell $2bn in notes this week that had a coupon of 4.8 per cent, as did JPMorgan’s placement for Qatar. Qatar’s bonds were listed on the London market this week, a typical part of making private placements easier to trade and value.

Abu Dhabi’s deals have increased its international bond borrowing so far this year to $8bn, compared with just over $3bn in 2025, when the emirate sold bonds at some of the lowest premiums over US Treasuries ever recorded for emerging market dollar debt.

The emirate issued $3.5bn in dollar debt in January and February, with the last sales just days before the US and Israel began strikes on Iran.

In a sign of investor nervousness over the hit to these economies, the war pushed up the cost of five-year default protection on Abu Dhabi’s debt to as high as about 0.55 percentage points last month, compared with 0.3 percentage points or below before the conflict, but it has fallen to about 0.4 percentage points since the ceasefire.

Abu Dhabi issued an update to documentation for its bonds this month that warned it “has not yet completed an assessment of the immediate or long-term damage to its economy or infrastructure” from the war.

Just before the conflict, JPMorgan had flagged that debts of the UAE and its members would be upgraded to developed market status in bond indices maintained by the bank. Qatar and Kuwait were upgraded last year.

Kuwait’s private debt sale, which bankers said was to boost a rainy-day buffer, is particularly notable as the country only returned to global bond markets last year, with about $11bn of issuance, after an eight-year absence.

Saudi Arabia, the Gulf’s biggest sovereign borrower, is yet to tap private markets in any disclosed postwar deals. The kingdom already sold $13.5bn in bonds in January and February prior to the start of the war, compared with $53bn for the whole of last year.

Gulf state-owned banks have meanwhile raised hundreds of millions of dollars in recent weeks through private placements of bonds and other forms of short-term debt, sometimes through branches in Asia.

Mideast Stocks: Gulf bourses close higher on hopes for US-Iran peace talks

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 18:52:00 +0000

Mideast Stocks: Gulf bourses close higher on hopes for US-Iran peace talks

Gulf stock markets ended higher on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session, as hopes for renewed U.S.-Iran peace talks ⁠lifted investor sentiment.

The optimism came even as Washington said on Wednesday that its military ‌had fully halted sea trade to and from Iran, with investors remaining focused on signs that diplomatic engagement in the Middle East could continue. President Donald Trump said talks with Tehran to end the war could soon resume and potentially yield a deal, telling ABC News to watch for an "amazing two days."

Adding to signs of continued diplomatic engagementwas a statement by Iran's foreign ministry saying that a Pakistani delegation was ⁠highly likely to arrive in Tehran on Wednesday to relay U.S. messages as part of ongoing communication between Tehran and Washington.

Dubai's main share index advanced 2.6%, buoyed by a 3.2% rise in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties and a 2.5% increase in top lender Emirates NBD. Budget airliner Air Arabia jumped 6.5%.

In Abu Dhabi, ‌the index concluded ⁠0.5% higher, with Aldar ⁠Properties adding 0.6%. GCC equity markets extended gains as hopes for diplomatic progress and easing regional tensions improved sentiment, said Joseph Dahrieh, Managing Director at Tickmill.

He added that solid domestic fundamentals ‌and stronger confidence continued to support the rally, although markets remain ⁠vulnerable to any setback in the diplomatic outlook that could trigger fresh short-term volatility.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index climbed 0.9%, with Al Rajhi Bank rising 1%. Elsewhere, oil major Saudi Aramco closed 0.7% higher. Brent crude futures were up 71 cents, or 0.8%, to $95.50 a barrel after slumping nearly 5% overnight to below $100. "From a medium-term perspective, elevated oil prices could remain a supportive factor, particularly if shipping disruptions ease," said Dahrieh.

Separately, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday that growth in the Middle East and North Africa will slow sharply this year as oil exporters face fallout from ‌the Iran war.

The Qatari index rose 0.4%, led by a ⁠1.4% rise in the Gulf's biggest lender Qatar National Bank. The Gulf state denied any talks with Iran over payments to halt attacks, saying its demands were instead being conveyed through Pakistan and the United States, spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari said.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index rose 1.5%, with Commercial International Bank finishing 2.6% ‌higher.

Bain Capital Opens #AbuDhabi Office, Indicating Gulf’s Allure - Bloomberg #UAE

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 12:42:00 +0000

Bain Capital Opens Abu Dhabi Office, Indicating Gulf’s Allure - Bloomberg

Bain Capital is opening an office in Abu Dhabi, one of the first new regional outposts announced by a major financial firm since the war began.

The firm will initially start with five to ten people in Abu Dhabi’s ADGM, though this number could rise over time, Managing Partner David Gross told Bloomberg News. Bain Capital anticipates opening additional offices in the region, he said.

“While the unfolding war is obviously tragic in many ways, it doesn’t change Bain Capital’s long-term outlook or impact plans to deepen our investment in the region,” Gross said in an interview. “We view staying the course as a way to reinforce our long-term commitment to the region.”

Iran’s attacks on major cities across the Gulf have raised questions about the pace of Wall Street’s expansion, firms have been in unanimous in voicing support for the Middle East. Names ranging from from Brookfield Corp. to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have vied to establish themselves as loyal partners.

The oil-rich region, long a lucrative source of funding, has grown assertive in recent years. Foreign companies are increasingly expected to invest in local economies, and external observers have cautioned that walking away now could impact firms’ ability to partner with state-backed entities.

Bain Capital plans to deploy capital through its global flagship funds and portfolio companies, with talks underway on deals including a new platform for aircraft leasing and maintenance services. It will also look at sectors including healthcare, digital infrastructure, and financial technology, Gross said.

“The situation heightens the spotlight on the economic importance of the region,” he added. “It may actually lead to further investment, to support redundancy or to fund defense-related and government-level initiatives that may trickle down into the private sector,” he said.

Even amid the war, regional investors have continued to deploy billions in transactions spanning alternative asset managers, private credit and technology platforms. Meanwhile, Blackstone Inc. has announced two inbound deals since Iran started attacking Middle Eastern hubs on Feb. 28.

The UAE, a global economic hub and magnet for capital and talent, has contended with being a prominent target of Iran’s projectiles. In the war’s early days, some professionals relocated, unnerved by shelter-in-place warnings and frequent interceptions of missiles and drones.

Despite potential disruption to business — as well as to the flow of wealthy individuals and businesses to the UAE — some investors have said the country’s infrastructure and governance will help it recover. Registrations at Abu Dhabi’s ADGM rose 5% year-on-year in March to 284, and a spokesperson has previously said the hub has more than 100 applications in the pipeline.

Bain Capital’s new office there will be led by Nacho Font, who joined the firm this year as a managing director on its investor relations team. Font was previously at Brookfield, where he oversaw client relationships and capital raising in the Middle East.

The firm, founded by former US Senator Mitt Romney, has existing ties to Abu Dhabi, including through a partnership with a state-backed entity announced last year.

Mideast Stocks: Most Gulf markets gain as traders gauge prospects for US-Iran deal

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Tue, 14 Apr 2026 19:44:00 +0000

Mideast Stocks: Most Gulf markets gain as traders gauge prospects for US-Iran deal

Most Gulf stock markets rose on Tuesday after Washington said it was still ⁠engaging with Tehran to try to end their war, even as ‌the U.S. blocked shipping traffic to and from Iran's ports following the collapse of peace talks at the weekend.

Sources told Reuters that both sides had maintained an openness to dialogue, while a U.S. official said there had been progress towards an agreement. Negotiating teams could return to Islamabad this week, four sources said on ⁠Tuesday.

Dubai's main share index advanced 0.9%, underpinned by a 2.6% rise in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties and a 3.3% increase in toll operator Salik.

In Abu Dhabi, the index gained 0.6%, with Aldar Properties up 3.7%. Gulf stocks were buoyed by ‌hopes of a ⁠diplomatic breakthrough, although investors ⁠remained alert to the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, said Daniel Takieddine, co-founder and CEO of Sky Links Capital Group.

Oil ‌prices eased slightly but stayed elevated as ⁠disruption to traffic through the key shipping lane persisted, Takieddine noted.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index added 0.5%, supported by a 0.6% rise in Al Rajhi Bank. However, oil major Saudi Aramco fell 0.9%. Brent crude futures were down $1.52, or 1.5%, to $98.25 a barrel at 1235 GMT.

Takieddine said investors were looking to upcoming earnings for signs of corporate resilience that could lend fresh support to the recovery.

The Qatari index was up 0.6%, buoyed by ‌a 0.9% gain in the Gulf's biggest lender Qatar National ⁠Bank.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index - which traded after a two-session break - jumped 1.8%, with Commercial International Bank gaining 3.5%.

Mideast Stocks: Gulf markets mixed as US-Iran peace talks fail

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Mon, 13 Apr 2026 19:34:00 +0000

Mideast Stocks: Gulf markets mixed as US-Iran peace talks fail

Stock markets in the Gulf ended mixed on Monday after Washington announced a maritime blockade on traffic to and from Iranian ports, ⁠following weekend talks with Tehran to end the war that failed to reach a deal.

The ‌U.S. move, aimed at pressuring Iran, leaves a fragile ceasefire hanging in the balance. The U.S. Central Command said its forces would begin blocking all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports from 10 a.m. ET (1400 GMT) on Monday.

Dubai's main share index reversed earlier losses to close 0.8% higher. The index was dragged down by a 2.5% fall in top lender Emirates NBD and a 1.7% decline in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties.

Budget carriet Air Arabia ⁠also fell 3.5%. In Abu Dhabi, the index closed down 0.5%, with ADNOC Gas falling 1.2%. GCC equities were mixed as renewed geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiment following the breakdown in diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran and Washington's naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while oil prices rose on supply concerns, said Milad Azar Market analyst at ‌XTB MENA.

UAE equities ⁠came under modest ⁠pressure amid the evolving backdrop. Although geopolitical risks continue to weigh on sentiment, the recent easing in tensions may support near-term consolidation, added Azar.

The Qatari index concluded 0.1% lower in choppy trade, hit by ‌a 0.8% fall in Qatar Islamic Bank. Maritime transport company Qatar ⁠Gas Transport was down 0.6%.

The benchmark index in Saudi Arabia - which has been shielded from much of the regional disruption due to its ability to reroute oil exports - advanced 1%, led by a 2.7% rise in the country's biggest lender Saudi National Bank. Elsewhere, oil behemoth Saudi Aramco climbed 1.6%.

Saudi equities maintained a constructive tone. While geopolitical risks remained in focus, relatively softer tensions supported investor confidence, and higher crude prices continued to underpin the market's ability to absorb near-term volatility, said Azar.

Brent crude futures were up 7.2% at $102 a barrel, having gained more than 40% since the war began, disrupting supplies through the vital Strait ‌of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia said on Sunday it had restored the East-West pipeline to ⁠its full pumping capacity of about 7 million barrels per day, days after assessing damage to energy infrastructure from attacks.

A Reuters analysis showed the kingdom also benefited from firmer oil prices, with estimated March oil revenue rising year on year.

Egyptian bourse was closed for a public holiday.

Equities subdued as US-Iran talks falter, ceasefire concerns renewed | Reuters

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Sun, 12 Apr 2026 15:47:00 +0000

Equities subdued as US-Iran talks falter, ceasefire concerns renewed | Reuters

Gulf equities ended subdued on Sunday after marathon talks in Islamabad failed to deliver a U.S.-Iran breakthrough, clouding hopes for a lasting settlement and putting ‌the fragile two-week ceasefire under renewed strain.

The 21-hour negotiations ended in mutual recriminations. The conflict, which began more than six weeks ago, has unsettled the global economy and sent oil prices sharply higher.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance said American officials were leaving Pakistan without a deal, while Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar stressed the ⁠need to preserve the ceasefire.

In Qatar, the index (.QSI), opens new tab eased 0.1%, hit by a 1.5% slide in petrochemical maker Industries Qatar (IQCD.QA), opens new tab and a 2% decrease in Qatar Gas Transport (QGTS.QA), opens new tab.

The benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab in Saudi Arabia - which has been shielded from much of the regional disruption by its ability to reroute oil exports - dropped 0.3%, with ACWA Power (2082.SE), opens new tab losing 1.9%.

The kingdom said on Sunday it had restored the East-West pipeline to its full pumping capacity of about seven million barrels per day, just days after ‌assessing ⁠damage to its energy infrastructure from attacks during the Iran conflict.

A Reuters analysis showed that Saudi Arabia benefited from firmer oil prices, with estimated March oil revenue rising year on year.

Even as diplomacy faltered, early signs of normalisation appeared in energy shipping, with three fully ⁠laden supertankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday — the first such transit since the ceasefire.

Tehran's blockade of the Strait — a conduit for roughly 20% of global oil and ⁠LNG trade — has disrupted supplies and driven oil prices sharply higher.

Bahrain's stock index (.BAX), opens new tab was down 0.1%, while Boursa Kuwait (.BKP), opens new tab edged 0.1% higher.

Egypt's market will be closed ⁠for two days starting Sunday to observe the Easter holiday.

#Dubai, eternal city

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Sat, 11 Apr 2026 16:50:00 +0000

Dubai, eternal city

The people I speak to do not sleep well these days. Usually their waking is voluntary. Now there are alarms, incessant and immutable, that jolt them to life. On the worst nights they rouse themselves for a second or third time, and look out above the glimmering city for supersonic and subsonic streaks, for lights that rise to meet them, for that moment of interception. They draw the curtains shut and head to a bathroom away from the building’s periphery, just as the government has advised them to. There, they wait while explosions rattle the windows, the jet engines turn faint once more and the sense of emergency recedes. There will be another message to everyone with a phone: everything is fine. They return to bed. There is nothing further until the next alert. For now the problem has been handled, and the unusual thing has passed. With the payload neutralised, they fall into an approximation of sleep. The authorities may confirm debris “from routine air defence operations” and urge people to avoid said debris, if they aren’t already beneath it. The government is taking care of everything, a person I know tells me. (There will be no names taken here; despite a tentative ceasefire it is wartime, and although Dubai has been one of the centres of the conflict, the most famous emirate still hopes to present itself as on the periphery. For that reason, everybody is a potential snitch in the authorities’ eyes.) He says they have made life normal. There is no danger, there is nothing to worry about. He says that his office is full of people, the area is thrumming, and business is all right. He will not entertain any suggestion of returning to India, even briefly. His tone is of heightened enthusiasm, so unyielding to the possibility of danger that I join him in his appreciation for Dubai’s governance over the open telephone line. They are amazing, they really take care of residents, it is the best place to be. His wife is not as cheery. She begins to describe her own surreal existence, a story quite removed from her husband’s. I remind her that the line is not private in this autocratic state, and we agree to speak another time. Mid-1980s. Onlookers stand at the edge of a crumbling road to gape at a flash flood in the desert. The author was forbidden from getting too close © Rahul Bhatia Dubai, the most populous of the United Arab Emirates, is the destination of choice for south Asians and westerners hungry for opportunity and Russian money hungry for a sanction-free home. The city has space for appetites of almost every kind. It attracts people seeking relief from taxes, from war, from disorganisation and dysfunction. Fortified by an unseen undercity of labourers, Dubai allows the very rich to live their best lives. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of south Asians, Iranians and Arabs work in the banks and government enterprises or run companies of their own — keeping the city’s lifeblood of capital flowing. These are the people I grew up with, and attended school with, and who I speak to over the course of a few weeks as this new conflict in the Middle East deepens. Recommended United Arab Emirates UAE projects normal life as missiles shake haven reputation Weeks have passed since Iran carried out its threat to hit places of financial and economic significance across the Gulf in response to the attacks by Israel and America. This adds another dimension to the threat confronted by the UAE, which comes under attack from Iran as soon as the conflict begins, when it responds to some 346 drones and missiles. On March 13, the Dubai Financial Centre is hit by the debris of an intercepted drone, which causes “a minor incident on the facade of a building”, in the words of the Dubai Government Media Office. These fragments are presented as evidence that the country’s air defence can turn powerful ammunition into “minor incidents”. But the intercepted debris strikes buildings and gas plants across the UAE, sometimes leading to casualties. In between, some drones and missiles slip through to strike fuel tanks and one of the world’s largest aluminium plants — damage so extensive that it will take a year to recover fully. The people who work at the financial centre now turn up remotely, while someone else worries about the compliance and other regulatory transgressions this causes. But in the wealth management division of a European bank, management decides that remote work is now over. Normalcy has not returned, but the frequency of drones and missiles has dropped enough to move the needle just past the fine line between the headache of liability and the headache of compliance. Still, an employee wonders, is it too soon? The previous night was a rough one: alert, projectile, boom, alert, projectile, boom and so on. Morning life is normal again, as if nothing happened. The duality is jarring. It disorients her, this quiet war that intensifies for hours before subsiding, and then intensifies once more. During the quiet hours, she looks around and sees others fulfilling their functions. It is the most banal act and the most necessary one: to step outside and travel some distance; to turn up at work. Late 1980s. Watching a powerboat race. The author was forbidden from toppling into the Arabian Gulf © Rahul Bhatia She shops, meets people and goes about her day. But she thinks constantly about departure. She has dispatched her parents to safety, a move they resisted for its whiff of betrayal to Dubai. She told them to imagine it was a brief vacation — that was what it took to convince them. Now they are in Mumbai, getting massages. With her other relatives she has been less successful. She made the case that disaster rises like a flood and they were unmoved. They said they would leave only if they saw Iranian troops land on the city’s beaches. The inaction recalls the first days of the pandemic, when people were paralysed by the internal weights that measured loyalty with preservation and probability with mistrust — scales that were all wrong. They will only acknowledge the war’s danger if they feel it on their own skin. The shops are open, the prices are kept affordable because someone up the chain is swallowing rising costs, and the authorities arrive within three minutes of an interception to manage the damage. Just the other day, she says, she was at a hotel for a little staycation. When a successful interception happened, people at the pool clapped enthusiastically. Although her relationship with the city is strained by ballistic missiles, she tells herself this is the country to be in. There is an unshakeable belief in Dubai, among some communities that have moved there, which verges on delusion; every other place on the planet pales in comparison: Paris is dirty, New York smells like toilets, Mumbai is madness. Growing up in the city for over two decades, I heard it referred to as a golden bird, a lucky place, a city where your fortunes changed. It was a manicured garden, where the problems of the outside world were kept out of sight, beyond the trimmed hedges. Immunity from the pressures and restraints of other cultures and geographies was guaranteed. Here, Indians and Pakistanis arrived in such numbers that the alienation that often accompanies migration was softened, and suspicions were overcome so quickly that they fantasised about a team with Sachin batting and Wasim bowling. Making a financial killing was possible with hustle and a little luck. It began with the airport, where a traveller passing through Dubai Duty Free could attain an affordable raffle ticket for an unattainable car. Crazy things happened, but in Dubai, the feeling went, crazy things happened a little more often. The city turned normal people into actuaries of their own fortune. I remembered this while interviewing a former resident who had lived there for three decades. Dubai was behind him, but it had not let go of him. We talked about the questions over Dubai’s future, and about the western press’s conclusion that the dream was irrevocably broken, with money-grubbing non-doms forced to flee home. “There aren’t many places on earth that offer you high-quality living, safety, are very well connected, with developed infrastructure that’s better than western countries, and are multicultural,” he told me. There was something for everybody in Dubai, he said, from labourers to billionaires, precisely because it offers a quality of life proportionate to their purchasing power. “No income tax, a little corporate tax. People respect the law, and are aware of the consequences if they don’t. The royal family is innovative, very supportive, and gives you an environment where business can grow. It’s easier to go there with the golden visa. Can you go to Singapore that easily? No.” Inside Dubai, some of this fervent optimism has to do with the carefully curated morning newspapers, which arrive with mitigatory language. Despite the fact that the UAE is under attack, that its refineries, fuel depots, data centres and banks are vulnerable, that traffic to its main port is falling because of the strangled Hormuz strait, the main story one morning is about Israel bombing Lebanon. Other stories are calming. The economic stimulus announced will create confidence; business leaders hail the resilience of Dubai’s economic model. The only evidence of the conflict comes as downed missiles and drones, which cannot be denied. The war itself is referred to as “regional tension”, or a “geopolitical development” that creates “temporary disruptions” or “airspace closures”. A columnist explains that the strict control of information is necessary because, in the UAE, “perception directly affects economic resilience”. Some of it also has to do with the quiet ways in which a government reassures a city’s residents. By decree, children across the country now attend school online; textbooks are delivered home. Fares are cut for the elderly, parking fares and tolls lifted, visa restrictions relaxed. Traders who raise prices too high too quickly are fined over $50,000 by government inspection teams. There are plans to open neighbourhood parks everywhere, triple the number of trees and construct dozens of affordable schools. This dissipates the sense of siege. 1980s. A boat race © Rahul Bhatia But where people meet and talk, there is the unavoidable discussion of mortgage payments and cutbacks, of parents airlifted to safety or parents too old to be transferred elsewhere. The nine-to-five continues, and the usual vacation restrictions are in place. Discussions about property transactions and bargain sales are even more common. Someone tells me how well they are being paid in Dubai, and the difficulties they would face in beginning anew elsewhere. Another says simply that this place and its streets are what he knows. These are the voices of loyal longtime residents, the ones who stayed through the imminent threat of the first Gulf war, the wars after 9/11, and then the collapse of the real estate market during the global financial crisis in 2008. They remember these moments as points of inflection, pauses between stretches of the city turning itself from one thing to another through expansion, but also erasure. They understand the mores of the city, they know where to find things and have developed a sense of direction. Of course, if an Emirati passport was available, they would take it in an instant. But in its absence, they carry themselves as though they were citizens all the same. It is part of the compact of life here. The illusion of belonging grows stronger over time, even though their status is as tenuous as ever. In return, they will not disturb the idea of the city. They will internalise the understanding that “perception directly affects economic resilience”. Basically, the immigrants will go along with it. One of the perils of returning to Dubai infrequently is hearing how much the place has changed. Constant renovation is the local pastime. But, over the years, I’ve learnt that Dubai’s residents tend to prefer their relationship with the city to be uncomplicated by civic participation. That is why, when the war began and questions about Dubai’s future made global headlines, as if a long-held illusion of stability had suddenly vanished, I thought the city had been misunderstood. Not so long ago, when there were fewer skyscrapers and much more sand, Dubai was a place where police clomped around on horses to enforce bedtimes and shoplifters were threatened with their parents, not the police. Morality and threats to the family name were the chief instruments of control. Between the unsaid rules that defined an immigrant’s place and the licence to make money, a life could find expression. If we trace the trajectory of my idea of the city backwards, we land in the year 1979, at the coordinates of an affordable housing colony for migrants from south Asia, the Philippines and other parts of the Middle East. At one of its edges sits a very seedy cinema hall that plays Mallu porn. The colony consists of long, low white buildings set on a rectangular grid. The city has not yet colonised the desert. There are no seven-star hotels, no underwater restaurants, no giant palm tree housing developments constructed in the sea. It feels like a town, and its residents keep village timings. Except for the shopping, of which there is plenty. The place existed, in my parents’ account, courtesy of The Sheikh, a mysterious benefactor who had subsidised housing built to ease a family’s passage into the country. The rent was unbeatable, adding to The Sheikh’s reputation as a top-notch guy. But Rashid bin Saeed al-Maktoum was also a kind man, like a gentler version of the man they called the “Leader Necessity” across the water in Iraq. The Sheikh was behind the colony, the roads, the traffic signal timings, the height of the pavements. His will moved water through the pipes and carried away our sewage to who knew where. He terraformed the desert, and his planes caused the clouds to rain. I was given to understand, very clearly, that we were all there because he uttered the words, “Build it and they will come.” 1980. At Jumeirah zoo. The author was forbidden from touching the lion © Rahul Bhatia At the time, The Sheikh was a framed picture on the wall. My true interest was in how we used his infrastructure, primarily by turning the giant parking lot into football pitches some days, and cricket grounds on others. Dozens of children congregated on the tarmac and made the neighbourhood unbearable in the evenings. In such a crowd, invisibility was assured. On one side in the chaos one day, a small group gathered around a boy promising to show his audience an unforgettable sight. “Have you ever seen a naked woman?” he whispered, waiting for a reply, then brought out a card with a picture of an extremely naked American woman with big hair all over. It was foolhardy, and I worried that it could have ended in jail — lashes and deportation for all of us. My understanding was that even looking was potentially a crime. The sensation of guilt by association was amplified another day when two Emirati boys picked me out of a football game and ordered me to meet them behind a nearby car. They looked as if they could cause trouble, and so I obeyed. One pressed me against the car door and put a hand over my mouth. The other whispered in my ear that he wanted to measure something. On the car’s other side, the game went on. I was certain, upon returning home, that something wrong had happened. But to talk about it would have upset some carefully managed balance, inviting a degree of uncertainty into our life. I had been made to understand that a local’s word weighed differently. The healthiest thing to do, under the circumstances, was to pretend that nothing happened and not speak a word of it. This was not the Dubai that would come some day, with its facilities for the rich and tax arrangements for the obscene. But there was oil in the UAE, and money flowed easily, and that was all anyone could ask for. So I took on board the family’s usual advice: keep your head down and do your work. When survival demands pretence, it becomes a habit. In late March, by the war’s third week, to quell rising panic, police have arrested 109 people suspected of filming “incidents related to Iran’s attacks” and posting “inaccurate information on social media”. They’re accused of sharing unverified content from unofficial sources, of affecting internal security, of glorifying a hostile state, and “adding commentary and sound effects aimed at inciting public anxiety and panic.” Besides them, 35 others who filmed interceptions are quickly put on trial. If we trace the trajectory of my idea of the city back, we land in the year 1979, at an affordable housing colony for migrants At least some of these people are responsible for the offence of sharing what they had witnessed. It’s easy to imagine why they did so, despite the restrictions on documentation. An incoming attack is a singular event, in contrast to the cool reporting through official news channels, with its spirit of collective resilience: “Cancelled flights, unexpected gains: UAE residents find silver linings close to home”; “The world predicts chaos — Dubai proves resilience”; “Ten shows confirmed for April in the UAE”. But the singular experiences launched from Iran short-circuit all pretence, and experiencers look for ways to diffuse the current. When residents anonymously report explosions and debris from across the city on social media, they are reaching out for emotional solidarity in the aftermath of a shock. All they are really doing is counting the bangs. Four. Five. Now in this district. Then in that district. Condemnations of Iran, of Trump, of Israel. The messages were accompanied by warnings that locating the explosions could give them away. On Reddit, responses to online queries by nervous residents (“What tf is going on”; “another debris”) come within minutes (“We have interceptors for missiles, but nothing for debris”), and are one of a few high-frequency indicators the people I speak with rely on to check the temperature of the conflict. Undergirding it all lies the desire for a fuller picture. “A colleague returning from England last week said the flight to Dubai was 80 per cent full. And look, there are property transactions happening online. Not like before, maybe 60 per cent, but they’re happening,” an old Dubai hand tells me. Do you know why people go to Dubai? It gives you a life without constraints. As long as you don’t do politics, you’re fine I ask if the government accounts of the conflict and its explanations are enough for him. He gives me a list of local, Indian, Qatari, Iranian and American media sources he refers to. He has noticed the tone of forced normalcy in the papers, but life outside has not changed for him. Yes, there are concerns, he says, and the nights are less crowded, but the country is well-prepared. “They are doing an amazing job.” There’s an understanding that systems are under enormous stress, and that actions have been taken to limit the transmission of higher prices and shortages. The food supply is strong and the authorities have reminded shoppers there is no shortage of necessities. Signals like these calm him, and allow him to justify staying in Dubai, despite being in the flight path of 75 drones and missiles on an average day, and of the intercepted shrapnel that was racking up casualties. Working from home, the explosions have become background noise. He’s aware that Iran’s missiles sometimes evade Israel’s defence systems, but the cumulative effect of the assurances he receives leads him to have faith in similar systems around him. He has made his peace with the local ministry of defence’s daily statistics, which listed air defence engagements, but not what might have slipped through. Yet he is not immune to doubt. He asks, with some hesitation, if I will let him know if I feel the danger rise. I had begun to feel something about Dubai and the UAE under siege that may have not been entirely true, but fitted with my internalised understanding of the country. That the rules that applied to us migrants seemed to apply to the country as a whole: keep your head down, keep out of other people’s business, and be conservative. Purposeful non-involvement. As a child, I was told that Dubai did not get involved with the world’s problems, and so the world did not interfere with Dubai. But then I remembered that Blackwater, the mercenary security contractor that had killed Iraqi civilians in 2007, had been hired by the UAE in 2011, as the effects of the Arab Spring reverberated around the Middle East. Some years later, the UAE was part of a Saudi-led coalition fighting Houthi rebels in Yemen. In the 2020s, it allegedly provided drones to the Ethiopian government in a war that killed over 600,000 people. And more recently, it has been accused of arming the Rapid Support Forces, a Sudanese paramilitary group, in an ongoing and brutal conflict. As the UAE took on a more active role in the world, it seemed inevitable that the world would reciprocate. Late 1980s. The family car, an immaculate red Mazda 929, in which the author was forbidden from eating © Rahul Bhatia The old Dubai hand I spoke with believed that this involvement in foreign affairs was a mistake. But he believed the emirates were capable of defending themselves. He leaned back and casually swept an arm through the air in the manner of a technocrat describing an obvious engineering solution to a centuries-old social problem. “Going forward, the UAE government will invest more in their defence. They will protect petroleum and desalination plants. They will reduce their reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. They might create underground pipelines, or build an oil grid with neighbouring countries. And once the war was over, normalcy would return, he said. They would improve their external security to match the quality of their internal security, which was “already very strong”. So good that “you can see a person’s journey from their front door to his place of work. The day the war stops, the flights to Dubai will be full.” He was unimpressed by westerners and their newspapers, whose judgment he found suspect. “These westerners… they worry about the war and so they’re the first to jump ship like rats, you know? Look, countries face external threats from time to time. Now it’s the UAE’s turn. But once it’s done, what will happen? I think this is a passing phase. Dubai is resilient. Do you know why people go there? It gives you a life without constraints that have held you back. As long as you don’t do politics, you’re fine.” Recommended The Big Read In the centre of the storm: what does the Iran war mean for Dubai? He did not mention that the UAE may be pressing America to finish the job in Iran, and what this would mean for its long-term security. Air defence may become a line item in Dubai’s cost of living over time, but the loss of container traffic to Jebel Ali — the UAE’s and Middle East’s largest port, which accounts for over one-third of Dubai’s GDP and 75 per cent of its FDI in manufacturing, trade and transport — will be harder to overcome. Iran had been levying tolls on ships that passed through the strait. For now, some traffic has been routed through ports on the Red Sea, at whose southern tip the Houthis lie in wait, ready to potentially fight beside Iran and Hizbollah. These are hard questions, and will require a degree of “doing politics”. But with supply chains operating well so far and no shortage of groceries, such questions are kept at bay. In early April I reach out to the banker who thinks about departure often. Almost a month has passed since we last spoke, and she is no closer to a decision. There are parents and employees and pets to look after, a sudden feeling of financial frailty, as if the city’s construct was about to collapse. She turns up to work to show she is a team player. But she has the number of a private jet operator, and driving south across the border to Oman is a fallback. She can’t say when they would leave. The announcement of a ceasefire has brought temporary respite. But if there is a return to war, she will be at her window again, looking up to the stars, watching the streaks in the sky, waiting for a sign. Rahul Bhatia is the author of “The New India”.

#AbuDhabi Royal’s Firm to Buy Stake in Caring Hospitality Empire - Bloomberg

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Sat, 11 Apr 2026 16:41:00 +0000

Abu Dhabi Royal’s Firm to Buy Stake in Caring Hospitality Empire - Bloomberg

A unit of Abu Dhabi royal Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s investment conglomerate is acquiring a majority stake in Richard Caring’s hospitality empire, which includes some of the UK’s most iconic brands such as the Ivy restaurants chain and private members’ club Annabel’s.

As part of the deal, DIAFA — an affiliate of International Holding Co, the investment firm chaired by Sheikh Tahnoon, the brother of the United Arab Emirates’ ruler — will acquire a stake in the business that also runs the luxury restaurant portfolio of Caprice Holdings, which owns Sexy Fish, Scott’s and Noema, according to a statement on Saturday.

The “ten-figure” deal also includes Caring’s other private members’ clubs in London like George, Harry’s Bar and Mark’s Club, the company said.

The investment from the IHC affiliate is worth more than £1 billion ($1.3 billion), according to a person familiar with the matter.

Caring will remain executive chairman and will together with DIAFA lead the business’s next phase of expansion globally, the company said.

A British businessman, Caring built his fortune in fashion before pivoting into high-end property and hospitality, assembling one of London’s most valuable leisure portfolios. His strategy has centered on acquiring legacy brands and scaling them, most notably expanding The Ivy from a single celebrity haunt into a nationwide chain of more than 40 sites.

The transaction will add to DIAFA’s existing F&B portfolio, which includes brands such as the Azumi Group’s Zuma and Roka, and the h.wood Group that includes Delilah, The Nice Guy and Bird Streets Club. It is the latest for the investment conglomerate IHC, which has emerged in recent years as the largest listed company in the UAE with a market value of about $232 billion, helping drive Abu Dhabi’s global dealmaking push.

For Caring, nicknamed the “King of Mayfair” for his iconic assets in the city, the transaction provides an exit route as well as further capital to expand the business footprint globally.

Earlier this year, IHC said it was creating a new financial-services holding company, Judan Financial, that will oversee about 870 billion dirhams ($237 billion) in assets. That followed a move by the conglomerate to merge three units to create an investing behemoth with $33 billion in assets spanning finance, consumer and energy spread across 85 countries.

In addition to his role at the conglomerate, Sheikh Tahnoon oversees a vast empire spanning a wealth fund, the region’s most important private investment firm, the country’s largest lender and its main main artificial intelligence investor, MGX.

More broadly, the region is showcasing a continued appetite for dealmaking despite the ongoing war. Investors including Qatar Investment Authority and Mubadala Investment Co. joined Whoop’s latest funding round, while Savvy Games Group, a unit of the Saudi Public Investment Fund, agreed to buy Moonton from ByteDance. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority has also been active, while the QIA and a Bahraini aluminum producer announced large transactions in the first week of the conflict.

Officials have sought to underline that momentum will hold. The UAE’s ambassador to the US said the country’s $1.4 trillion investment framework with America remains on track, while executives at Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund have reiterated plans to continue deploying capital globally despite rising economic risks tied to the war.

Mideast Stocks: #UAE equities gain ahead of US-Iran negotiations

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Fri, 10 Apr 2026 18:00:00 +0000

Mideast Stocks: UAE equities gain ahead of US-Iran negotiations

Equity markets in the United Arab Emirates gained on Friday, as U.S. and Iran start ⁠talks in Pakistan and Israel seeks talks with Lebanon, ‌raised hopes for easing Middle East tensions and reducing risks of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

Delegations from Tehran and Washington are set to hold talks in Pakistan on Saturday.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday he is seeking direct talks with Beirut, ⁠a day after the worst bombardment of the war killed more than 300 people in Lebanon and placed Donald Trump's U.S.-Iran ceasefire in jeopardy.

Dubai's main market reversed early losses and closed 0.4% higher, ‌helped by ⁠a gains in ⁠industrial and financial stocks.

Low-cost carrier Air Arabia jumped 4.8%, while top lender Emirates NBD Bank climbed 3.4%.

Abu Dhabi's benchmark ‌index edged 0.02% up, supported by a ⁠4.1% rise in hyper market operator Lulu Retail Holding and a 3.9% surge in Dana Gas.

Gains in the index were limited by a 3.1% decline in real estate giant Aldar Properties and 0.5% drop in UAE's richest firm International Holding Company.

Dubai has restricted foreign airlines to just one daily flight to its airports until May 31 due ‌to the Iran crisis, igniting revenue loss fears among ⁠Indian carriers that had planned more flights than airlines from any other country, letters show.

Dubai index rose 4.2% for its biggest weekly gain in more than 10 months, while Abu ‌Dhabi posted a weekly gain of 2.5%, according ⁠to LSEG data.

Mideast Stocks: Most Gulf equities slip as fragile truce jitters investors

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 15:53:00 +0000

Mideast Stocks: Most Gulf equities slip as fragile truce jitters investors

Most Gulf stock markets fell on Thursday as a fragile regional truce appeared to be under strain, spooking ⁠investors and reviving concerns over prolonged geopolitical and inflationary risks.

The ceasefire's durability was ‌cast into doubt on Wednesday as Israel continued strikes on Lebanon, with Iran saying it would be "unreasonable" to pursue talks on a lasting peace deal.

Israel and the United States both said the two-week ceasefire did not cover Lebanon, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the strikes would continue.

Iran also targeted oil infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf states, including a Saudi pipeline used as an ⁠alternative route to the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, an oil industry source said. Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE likewise reported missile and drone strikes.

Dubai's main share index dropped 1.5%, a day after gaining more than 6%, weighed down by a 3.9% slide in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties and a 3.3% ‌fall in top ⁠lender Emirates NBD. Budget ⁠airliner Air Arabia advanced 1.8%. In Abu Dhabi, the index fell 0.3%, with Aldar Properties down 3.2%. Although initial optimism has softened, upside potential remains intact provided geopolitical conditions stabilise further and ‌the outlook becomes clearer, said Daniel Takieddine, co-founder and ⁠CEO, Sky Links Capital Group.

The UAE will seek clarity on the terms of the two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire to ensure Tehran fully commits to halting regional attacks and unconditionally reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on X. The Qatari index pared losses to close just 0.2% lower, with the Gulf's biggest lender Qatar National Bank falling 0.3%.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index was unchanged. Saudi Aramco gained 0.8%. The kingdom has an edge over regional neighbours as it can reroute its oil exports. A Reuters analysis showed Saudi Arabia benefited ‌from higher oil prices with estimated March oil revenue rising from ⁠a year earlier, while countries without alternative routes lost billions.

Brent crude futures were up $3.41, or 3.6%, at $98.16 a barrel at 1244 GMT.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index advanced 1%, led by a 1.3% rise in Commercial International Bank.

Mideast Stocks: Gulf equities rally on US-Iran ceasefire agreement

noreply@blogger.com (Rupert Neil Bumfrey) — Wed, 08 Apr 2026 16:09:00 +0000

Mideast Stocks: Gulf equities rally on US-Iran ceasefire agreement

Gulf stock ⁠markets ended higher on Wednesday after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a fragile two-week ceasefiredeal, which includes the immediate and secure reopening of ‌the Strait of Hormuz.

Markets have remained on edge since the U.S.-Israel war against Iran broke out in late February, with Tehran's effective closure of the strait - a vital artery for 20% of global oil and gas supplies - fuelling inflation concerns.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday said the last-minute deal was subject to Iran agreeing to pause its blockade of the strait. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran would cease counter-attacks and provide safe passage through the waterway if attacks against it stopped. Brent crude futures were down $17.47, or 16%, at $91.80 a barrel by 1205 GMT. U.S. presidential policies remain difficult to predict, however, and investors are expected to stay cautious.

The announcement has been ⁠well received and UAE equity market fundamentals remain strong, said Tariq Qaqish, deputy CEO at FH Capital. But higher risk levels are increasing the discount rate used to value capital markets, which may put pressure on valuations, he added.

Dubai's main market surged 6.9% in its biggest intraday gain since March 2020, buoyed by a 13% jump in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties and an 11% jump in top lender Emirates NBD Bank. Among other gainers, budget airline Air Arabia soared 10.8%. Dubai's main index has been the worst performer among its ‌regional peers recently, ⁠dropping more than 16% in March ⁠as the conflict continued.

Late last month, Dubai approved 1 billion dirhams ($272.34 million) in economic facilitation measures to support businesses for a period of three to six months starting April, the Dubai Crown Prince said on X on Monday.

Abu Dhabi's benchmark index climbed 2.9%, with its largest lender First Abu ‌Dhabi Bank rising 5% and real estate giant Aldar Properties soaring 10.1%. Energy firm Adnoc Gas gained 3.5%, ⁠while Abu Dhabi Ports Company advanced 11.1%. Qaqish said he expected the UAE government to keep supporting the economy through aid for banks, small and medium enterprises and new measures to restore confidence.

In Qatar, the index rose 3.7% as all its constituents advanced, with the Gulf's biggest lender, Qatar National Bank, climbing 4.2%. Petrochemicals maker Industries Qatar rose 5.8%, while Qatar Gas Transport was the top gainer, climbing 8.1%.

The prospect of a reopened Strait of Hormuz has removed part of the extreme tail risk markets had been pricing in, prompting a rebound in regional equities, said Ahmad Assiri Research Strategist at Pepperstone. But this looks more like tactical repositioning than fresh inflows, he said, adding that while sentiment has improved, conviction remains limited and the durability of the rally will depend less on valuations and more on whether the conflict continues to de-escalate.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index ended 2.3% higher, led by a 2.8% rise in Al Rajhi Bank. Budget airline flynas closed 8.9% ‌higher. Unlike its regional peers, the Saudi stock market was the least affected during the war.

The ⁠rise in global oil prices generated substantial financial gains for Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia, while costing states without alternative export routes billions of dollars, a Reuters analysis found.

Saudi energy stocks, meanwhile, gave back part of their recent gains, with oil major Saudi Aramco falling 2.8% on Wednesday after rising more than 10% since the conflict began. The Saudi energy index dropped 1.9%. Yanbu National Petrochemical Co after surging more than 41% last month. Boursa Kuwait added 1.7%, while Bahrain's index rose 0.6%.

Outside ‌the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index climbed 4.1%, with most of its constituents in positive territory, including Commercial International Bank.