Media Coverage and Polling Data

Why is all the polling data so wrong?  I think I know why and I attribute it to 2 main causes.  The first is sampling errors that it just seems polling companies refuse to acknowledge.  Many of the assumptions used in conducting poles have inherent biases today that were not present in 1992, (like phoning people from the phone book) There is a large and very active segment of the population that isn’t registered in the phone book and doesn’t even have a phone number.  I think the demographic isn’t just missing, but they would also tend to be of a particular persuasion.  Younger, more progressive.    For future prognostication I will assume most polls to be slanted slightly in favour of conservative establishments.

It happened during the Calgary election also when a distant 3^rd place mayoral candidate (by polling) won a convincing majority of voters and won the day.  Its not just that the polling sample tends to miss younger urban voters, but also that those younger urban voters tend to vote similarly.

Social Media Changes The second major change is that polling is only a snap shot in time anyways …but in a day of instant communication and discussion those snap shots are already pretty old in the conversation by the time they reach us –   That can still make them useful.  I also think misses a key component which I will call militancy.  My term for the “passion level” or likeliness to get your vote out.  I think the people they are missing in the polling data vote as a block and much more active than the polling people acknowledge.

Wild Rose and the power of fear

I think tonight’s election results make clear that the path to power is in the middle not on the right or left.  Chretians Liberals eliminated the deficit of the day – partisans are on the fringe, and they fuel the base,  but power is not.  Ironically the Wildrose party always seemed to recognize that they needed to avoid the labels “scary” or “extreme” and by policy they might have pulled it off.  It does seem though that the comments of a single Wildrose blogger played into the hands of the strategists who desperately wanted to paint the Wildrose as a “scary” alternative.  In the end I think it was fear of change that prevailed.

So we have a PC party that kicked the Liberals around for 41 years elected tonight likely by those same Liberals who have rallied against them all along – There is certainly an interesting new voter block taking shape.

Interesting to see Medicine Hat on the outside looking in at government for the first time in my lifetime.  I liked Darren Hirsch personally, but I think Medicine Hat has been taught that “the forgotten corner” is not automatically served by supporting the party in power.  When the floods came the relief never did, its our land owners battling for private property rights and the PC government simply wouldn’t listen.  At  least now we know we have representatives who will be allowed to speak out if Medicine Hat is being treated unfair, we no longer have a muzzled voice in government but a champion free to speak our concerns.

I must congratulate the PC party.  Its an awesome political machine that manages to be elected to 45 years of government on the promise of “Change”  – its a machine that can run a “protest” campaign against their own track record, test the winds of the people and seem to line up their sails to go for the ride.  It really is a marvel of campaigning.

For Medicine Hat though that awesome political machine didn’t make us forget about being forgotten.

I believe the premiers promise that she is more progressive than her predecessors and I think when the polling data catches up to real time…that she will sort of owe her majority to those more progressive minded voters.

To my friend Mr Hirsch and to our new MLA Blake Peterson, congratulations on a great campaign.  I admire both of you.

Local Medhatblog participant and social media maven is looking to be named the Servus Credit Union spokesperson for the 17-25 age customer.

I personally cant think of anyone more connected via twitter, facebook, and online presence, but I do wonder how well bank executives can figure out which applicant has the online presence to pull it off.

Blog bump to Savanna

“

Political Experience:  Even though Lavar Payne is the incumbent he still has to be considered a political rookie.  He barely had to cut his teeth during a nomination process that only had about 200 delegates participate in and though he took his seat by storm he did so largely unopposed on a very popular PC ticket.  On this score Norm Boucher has has twice won hard fought elections for mayor, including just nosing out Julie Friesen in the last local election.

Name Recognition:  Here again Norm Boucher is a very populist mayor.  No doubt he has detractors in the community but in terms of local news the civic politics will always get more play time.  The Mayor has had more impact on the lives of hatters than the MP has the last 4 years.

Branding: Lets face it, The PC brand is very strong.  Lavar’s greatest asset in this election is the PC name.  Hatters identify with conservatism, or at least history says they have.

I think this election will be much closer than usual.  Populist mayors and local celebrities can overcome branding.  Ralph Klein was originally elected to the Legislature as a Liberal some might remember.

To me its interesting.  From where I sit I see electing a PC candidate as better for federal policies and government – but barely any of that seems to trickle back here…Electing Norm might well be better for Medicine Hat, give us a voice in Ottawa and make the PC party not consider us the free space on the bingo card.  I will watch this local election with much more interest now.

As I watch these events unfold I am challenged to think of how we strike the balance between “right” and “fair.”

I think most people living in a democratic society believe that the fairest way to conduct ourselves is through grassroots democratic community participation.  Since this is largely impractical we elect representatives to participate in that for us.  In fact this belief is so largely accepted that even government s widely recognized as brutal dictatorships put on at least the façade of democratic legitimacy.

World over in history men and women have sacrificed their lives to establish “fair” government – meaning one in which all had a voice.

The temptation always sneaks in though…like a thief in the night, on subverting democracy in the name of what is “right”

The ugly truth of democracy is it only really represents the will of the group.  There is no perfect moral compass that says majority rules means majority is correct, fair, just or good.

The very real fear in Egypt today …while hopeful that the people will be masters of their own fate …Is that the people of Egypt might not behave as we like.  Today’s ruthless dictator happens to be an ally of our people.  The average Egyptian may well support warring with Israel and the west….Time will tell.   This viewpoint that we cheer for democratic progress in Egypt, but fear the choices they may make puts the very values we hold dear to the test.

In our politics – world renowned for being open, democratic and fair – we too live this struggle.  (though peacefully)  Our Provincial Democracy holds that each region in the province elects representatives to bring our viewpoints to the government.  In practice though the ruling PC’s have taken a dangerous step away from this.  Late last year we saw the PC’s kill and eat one of their own for daring to speak out on concerns from his electorate.  Dr Raj Sherman, an ER Doctor and at the time, Tory MLA dared speak out against Alberta Health Services and the quality of patient care in our province.

Speaking out in this regard was, in my view, a completely reasonable part of provincial discussion.  For his efforts the ruling party gave him a “time out” and eventually booted him from the team.   Medicine Hat and Cypress region racked with flooding in 2009 had both our MLA’s stand silent while the government grossly underserved our neighbours who lost everything.  In an elected democracy our representatives should have been screaming from the hills for help – instead our MLS’s became the representative of Edmonton back to us.  They have it backwards.

So tempting is it to subvert democratic process that is “fair” in the name of doing what we think is “right” – The quagmire that always follows, is that “right” is of course too subjective.  So mankind will ebb and flow, struggle and dance to find this balance between fair and right, effective and democratic.  I think the only medicine for this problem is active democratic participation.  When you see what others risk to gain something so many of us ignore, it makes you stop and wonder.

By Contrast

The story of a 14 year old Canadian Boy.

His strict father moved him to an area of world conflict to support his own radical political views.  He was then “given” to a gorilla warlord sensitive to his father political beliefs.  As a 14 year old he was made into what the United Nations calls a child soldier.

As a child soldier he was brought to a combat zone.  The US military had invaded this area of world conflict.  As happens in a combat zone a fight ensued.  50 US soldiers, a pair of UH-60’s and Apache Helicopters, and A-10 Warthogs began strafing and attacking the mud huts where the child soldier lay.  In total a pretty massive amount of fire was brought to bear on them.  At some point during that battle a grenade was lobbed towards the American position.  5 men were killed and the child soldier lay wounded.  Shrapnel from the offending grenade permanently damaged the child soldiers eye and he had been shot twice in his chest. Initial reports on the scene could not conclude where the grenade came from.   1 US soldier died later in hospital.

The Canadian child soldier was taken by the US military for medical treatment.  “JR” in Medicine Hat was allowed to write letters to her boyfriend and killer.  These letters were excluded from her court case and the police were admonished by the judge…

The Child Solider in US custody was told by his captors that detainees that lied to interrogators were allowed to be raped in the shower by big black men.  The child was interrogated by a US citizen who was later convicted of abusing detainees to elicit confessions following the torture death of another detainee.  The child soldier claims that he was refused pain medication for his wounds, that he had his hands tied above a door frame for hours, had cold water thrown on him, had a bag placed over his head and was threatened with military dogs, was flatulated upon, forced to carry 5-gallon pails of water to aggravate his shoulder wound. He was not allowed to use washrooms, he was forced to urinate on himself

He was transferred to Gitmo Cuba.

Here he was held in solitary confinement with no access to a trial for his crimes and went more than 2 years without being allowed to contact family.

He was told by an interrogator that  “Your life is in my hands”  they spat on him, tore out some of his hair and threatened to send him to a country that would torture him more thoroughly, making specific reference to an Egyptian Askri raqm tisa (“Soldier Number Nine”) who enjoyed raping prisoners. The interrogation ended with Khadr being told he would spend the rest of his life in Guantanamo. A few weeks later, an interrogator giving his name as Izmarai spoke to Khadr in Pashto, threatening to send him to a “new prison” at Bagram Airbase where “they like small boys”  When he told Canadians that he had been tortured into giving false confessions by the Americans, the Canadian authorities called him a liar, causing him to cry. He later recalled that he had “tried to cooperate so that they would take me back to Canada

After 8 years of torture and solitary custody, in a prison condemned by the United Nations and the US supreme court – the first child soldier since WWII was to be prosecuted by a military commission.  The US military tribunal ruled that confessions obtained from the child by his interrogators were admissible as evidence in his trial.  Faced with certain conviction in a legal process denounced by every credible international agency the Canadian Child soldier Omar Khadr  who had already been shot in the field of battle, already incarcerated and tortured for 8 years – was sentenced to 40 more years in prison.  The key to the deal was that he could serve a portion in Canada.  Canadian officials initially decline the request.

Canadian officials at almost any time in the past 8 years could have asked to have him returned to Canada and never did.

As a Canadian I am profoundly embarrassed by our response to both “JR” – whose identity is hidden, record cleared and crimes generally unpunshied and Omar Khadr who had no lawyer, no family, no due process, no “Miranda” rights and a no criminal trial – for a crime that has precious little evidence that he might have even broken a law, certainly not in the jurisdiction in which the “crime” occurred.

How can both of these cases be handled so different by the Canadian government?  What common set of values do we as a people have represented in this case.  Any casual outside observer would have to conclude that Canadians are firmly committed to hypocrisy.

403-502-8027

http://www.medicinehatelection.info/

via

http://www.medicinehatmedia.com/

Dangermouse Comments

I thought the mayor’s race was not much of a race at all.  Norm Boucher represents an open and democratic council.  He campaigned on it last time and followed through with it.  Under his leadership the city became open and approachable.  Compare the lack of discussion around the Espladade with the openness of the Events Center debate.  Or the open houses for the Utility discussion.  Norm followed through on my biggest concern last election.  How do I not support him now?

This election he has campaigned on economic growth and investing in Medicine Hat’s future.  I support that.

Julie Frieson

I have no doubt that Julie cares about our community, but she has not demonstrated leadership traits that impress me.  I want to see a candidate tell me what they stand for, where they stand on issues and let me as a voter decide if I want to support them.  Julie wants to tell everybody she supports them.  She cant.  I wish her the best of luck but I cant support her.

Scott Cowan

When you see statues erected to great leaders you see people of vision, passion and courage.  People don’t erect statues for cynics and complainers.  Other than making a fictional debt crisis into a civic issue I didnt see one solid new idea from Mr Cowan.  Some issues of discussion are a matter of opinion “Medicine Hat has great and or poor leadership”  those are things we can disagree on.  Facts are concrete.  They are either right or wrong.  Mr Cowan claims in the post forum interview on this blog that the city of Medicine Hat lost $600 million dollars worth of equity during the last term.  Medicine Hat news reports it as his “opinion” – anyone capable of clicking a link can read the cities financial report for themselves.  Anybody who misreads a financial report by more half a billion dollars doesn’t have much “fiscal management” credibility with me.

Ted Clugston
Dangermouse: yes
KJ: yes
Skeet: Yes

Dangermouse: Clugston brings vision and leadership to the table and I agree with his votes on most issues.  For me he is a yes

KJ: Perhaps the quietest member of council over the past three years, and who knows? Perhaps that could play to his advantage. It should also be pointed out that he sat on no less than 8 (maybe more) committees over the past three years… had perfect attendance AND fought tooth and nail to save Riverside Waterslide. A strong candidate who ran a strong campaign.

Skeet: My predication is Clugston gets the most votes this election.  And that is a good thing.

Robert Dumanowski
Dangermouse: no
KJ: yes
Skeet: no

Dangermouse: I still wont forgive him for telling us he was against the Bikini magazine bylaw at 2:00pm, and then telling everyone in council that people who didnt support treating Cosmo like it was Hustler were against the children of Medicine Hat.  I don’t mind disagreeing with someone – I mind being told he supports my view and then voting a different way.

Skeet: Someone posed this question to Robert at the Aldermanic Forum last election (2007): “We are $218 million in debt, what do you intend on doing about that?” Roberts answer: “We are allowed to be $500 million in debt, so we have lots of room”.

Wayne Craven
Dangermouse: yes
KJ: no
Skeet: undecided

Dangermouse: I like his business minded approach, but I hope he will be a part of the future and not a return to the past.

Skeet: This is a tough one.  I think he is throwing his hat back into the ring to run for Mayor in the next election. He “was” a good alderman in the past.  But some of his comments this election scare me. And he is acting like he has already won the seat (which he probably will).  I will probably decide in the booth.

Graham Kelly
Dangermouse: no
KJ: yes
Skeet: no

Dangermouse:  who votes for graham kelly?  All I hear from him is silence and the occasional campaign style blow up.  I thank him for his years of service, but for me an alderman who has no new ideas and no expenses whatsoever is just marking time.

Skeet: Graham should not be elected back to council.  no way.  I beg of you, do not vote for him.  The guy is mailing it in, he really is.  Kelly does not read up on the issues, has fallen asleep in numerous council meetings, does not want to be on committees because it takes up his time….  I know long time incumbents most always get re-elected, but put him out to pasture already.  He is in it to collect his paycheque.  thats it.

Phil Turnball
Dangermouse: no
KJ: no
Skeet: no

Dangermouse:  I dont know much about him except what was done on the campaign trail.  I think he represents another part of our community not me.

Skeet: If you are younger than…45, do not vote for this guy.  He believes the younger generation has no value, and we should respect and listen to him because he is old. Phil claims that he is a business man, but being the General Manager of Canadian Tire does not automatically make you a business man.  Did he ever have to worry about making payroll?  I’m guessing no.  And his pet project East Side Mario’s, what happened to that?

Jeremy Thompson
Dangermouse: yes
KJ: Yes
Skeet: Yes

Dangermouse: Jeremy is tough and gives strong opinions, but I like that about him.  At the end of the day, he ran on the platform of bringing openess and transparency, and he followed through.  When I msg’d him about having council meetings archived on the city website – he pushed to get it done.  I agree with him on most issues.

KJ: The first three years was very much a learning experience for Thompson. While experiencing a few setbacks in term one, his “family values campaign” certainly appealed to that demo within the city. Look for him to place in the Top 4 of Aldermanic candidates.

Skeet: The thing about Jeremy, is that he is completely transparent and approchable.  He tells you whats he thinks, and is not wishy washy.  And if you want to discuss issues, he will gladly talk to you anytime, or meet you for a coffee and civil conversation.  And Thompson knows the issue’s, he really does his homework.

George Webb
Dangermouse: no
KJ: yes
Skeet: no

Dangermouse: Medicine Hat doesnt have a Ward system – in a different style of government he could be a good representative of downtown, but council is for the whole city for me he is a no.

KJ: Webb would take a bullet for all the downtown businesses and clearly has their best interests at heart.

Skeet: Webb is all about downtown.  Which may be a detriment to the rest of the City on many issues.  George also seems to be a polarizing figure.  If you speak to people downtown, they either love him or hate him. I dont think that is a strong point.

Brian Varga
Dangermouse: yes
KJ: yes
Skeet: yes

Dangermouse: I like a guy on council who represents the blue collar working guy, I think Brian appeals to that.  I agree with him on issues.  I wish he was a stronger at public speaking, but dont let that fool you, he is very informed on local issues – a conversation with him will reveal it.

KJ: After going to dozens & dozens of council meetings in the past three years, none of the new Aldermanic candidates have worked as hard as Varga. He’s studied the issues, shook thousands of hands and has shown that his time has finally come.

Skeet: oh, this is another tough one for me.  Is he a single issue candidate; events centre?  Last election he was, but I believe he is far more rounded politically this election.

Les Pearson
Dangermouse: no
KJ: yes
Skeet: no

Dangermouse: I respect Les a great deal.  I admire the work he has done in the community with many different charitable causes – our community does need men like him.  Unfortunately for me, there is almost no politically similarity in his message and my thoughts.  I am much more conservative, pro business and economic development than I feel he is.

KJ: Pearson has run a strong issues-based campaign with an emphasis on attracting women voters, and doing away with the environmental levy on waste disposal bins. His platform seems to be gaining traction after “distractions” derailed his last campaign.

Skeet: Pearson says he will be a team player, but I don’t believe that for a second.  The guy is very confrontational and stubborn.  I predict fireworks if he gets voted in.

Pat Kraus
Dangermouse: no
KJ: no
Skeet: no

Dangermouse: She seems very nice, but doesn’t represent me.

Skeet: Pat, I am sure you are a very nice person, but I have no idea who you are or what you stand for.

John Hamill
Dangermouse: no
KJ: yes
Skeet: no

Dangermouse: I can see Hamill’s populist appeal, of the “old council” I thought he was OK, but I am not a supporter of “old council” – Hamil wanted to appeal to everyone – supports the events center, but votes against it.  For me you just dont know where he stands so I am taking a pass.

KJ: Let’s face it… there’s something very “Ralph Klein-esque” about John. Say what you want about “Button-gate”, there’s just something likable about the guy. And as we know, likable=forgivable.

Skeet: I have flipped flopped on Hamill more times than I can count.  He once said “I wish this was the Middle East where you could shoot people” after I made a comment about him that he didn’t like.  But, thats what we do here, stir the pot behind thinly veiled pseudonyms. John, I love ya, but you gotta go.

Wayne Ziegler
Dangermouse: yes
KJ: no
Skeet: no

Dangermouse: Wayne is an interesting guy.  I think he is less informed than some other candidates, but generally his views from the forums were consistent and well represented.  He seems to support the events center, economic growth and investing in Medicine Hat’s future.  Some people vote Dunomoski because he is young and well spoken, I cast that dark horse vote to Wayne.

Skeet: Wayne is the male version of Julie.  He is a really nice guy who can’t say no to anyone.  He will be two faced, because he will not want to hurt anyone’s feelings.  Not a politician.