As we approach the end of this years tournament, the IPL, the world’s showpiece T20 competition, has once again been rocked by spot fixing accusations.  This won’t come as much of a surprise to many of the regular cricket traders but what is a bit of a turn-up is the swiftness of the Indian police to condemn and even arrest the 3 suspects; Ajit Chandila, Sreesanth and Ankeet Chavan.

Their crimes?  Well allegedly there were 3 matches where underground bookies had controlled the players actions:

Rajasthan Royal v Pune Warriors (05/05/13)

Chandila given the ball for the 3rd over.  Allegedly told to give up runs and is shown to bowl consistently down leg-side. Forward the action to 17 mins:

Kings XI Punjab v Rajasthan Royals (09/05/13)

In the 2nd over of his spell Sreesanth is allegedly told to concede 13 runs.  Before the over he is also allegedly told to use the code of turning his watch and use a towel whilst also warming-up first to allow bookies enough time to place bets.

 Mumbai Indians v Rajasthan Royals (15/05/13)

Ankeet Chavan is allegedly instructed to give away at least 13 runs in his 2nd over.  He bowls the 3rd over….

You can make your own minds-up but it’ll be interesting to see what develops from here and what the consequences will be.

If you want a better understanding of how gambling operates in India then I’d also recommend you read Ed Hawkins book, ‘Bookie, Fixer, Gambler, Spy’. Alternatively, you can download it via Kindle.

The following puzzle was posted on the Bet Angel forum by ‘JollyGreen’ recently and I thought a few of you may find it interesting.  I came across this riddle a while back but had forgotten the details, so it was a nice surprise to see it posted.

You are a contestant on a show and there are three boxes for you to choose from. One box has a set of keys to a Ferrari and the others have a carrot in. You get to choose box 1 2 or 3

Let’s assume for the sake of argument, you choose Box 2. The box is chosen but NOT opened when the host who knows which box holds the keys, opens box 1 and shows you a carrot in it.

He then asks if you want to stick with your original choice of box 2 or if you want to swap box 2 for box 3?

Do you stick or swap and why?

Now I could try and explain the correct answer myself, but this short video is worth watching and does it perfectly…

One question a lot of football followers would like answered is how would their modern day heroes compare with those from the past?  Well, last night I stumbled across a very interesting graphic that paints a very interesting picture of Bobby Moore’s contribution during the 1966 World Cup final using the Prozone Matchviewer.

It compares his successful (blue lines) and unsuccessful (red lines) passes during the game with that of his centre back partner Jack Charlton.

Quite incredible eh? Moore was everywhere!  No doubt he was some player.

It’s well known by most punters and casual fans that playing at home in most sports (at least the ones I’m familiar with) offers the home team an advantage.  In football this can be measured as 0.40 of a goal and in rugby and NFL the same principle can apply, but the question I’ve been asking myself recently is why does this bias exist?

Afterall, conditions in most sports remain similar; the playing area is the same size, there’s the same number of players on each side etc.  The list goes on, so what ‘happens’ to these home teams when they play on territory familiar to them?

Passion

“One with passion is worth 40 without.”  That’s a saying I first heard when I was a teenager and it must have hit a chord as it’s stayed with me ever since.  I can’t help thinking this could be the vital here.  Just in case I’ve lost a few of you, I’m not talking about Valentines Day, I’m suggesting that maybe home teams have a greater desire to do well at home whereas, perhaps after a  long journey to a remote part of the globe this emotion may erode a little.  They simply want it more. Could it be the buoyancy of the home fans? The confidence they bring?  Or could the coaches/managers have more of an impact in this area than is at first obvious?

If I consider the names Alex Ferguson, Jose Mourinho, Stuart Lancaster and Warren Gatland  I think of men who are highly regarded in their chosen field. Could it be that these men have encountered success from highlighting passion, and in turn desire and belief, as the key ingredient in moulding their teams?  Furthermore, have they concentrated on transporting these feelings into the minds of their players when surroundings are unfamiliar?  Their records speak for themselves and when you look at their policies on recruitment and selection it would seem a hunger to succeed from their players is an essential attribute.  Yes, there will be other important factors but could this be the crucial one?

I can’t say for sure if this is their ‘secret’ but I’d be interested to hear your views on this topic, so feel free to post any comments below.

Elsewhere, this weekend sees the 3rd round of the 6 Nations kick off.  England are looking strong although I don’t think they’re Grand Slam shoo-ins just yet.  However, they are looking too good for France , especially at home at Twickenham.  With this in mind I’m keen on England -7 @ 1,.91 on the handicap, as unless there’s a meteoric turnaround from Les Bleus this would seem within reach.

Following on from my last post and it seems the Baltimore Ravens have confounded their doubters by over-coming the Broncos and the Patriots to reach the Superbowl.  I said their price at 26 was too big!  Their current Betfair price has shortened now to 2.60 but disappointingly I admit to trading out of my position on them too early – I just didn’t see them getting this far!

Elsewhere, England are due to take on India in the 5th and final One Day International on Sunday at one of the most beautiful cricket grounds in the world. It promises to be an intriguing match as Dharamsala sits at the foot of the Himalayas and temperatures are not expected to rise higher than 13 degrees.  That’s chilly for cricketers!  The ground hasn’t hosted an ODI before so to a certain extent anything could happen.  One things for sure though, it’ll be interesting to see how the bookies mark up their prices and there could well be some value on offer.

It’s that glorious time of the year again when the NFL reaches it’s business end and the remaining 12 teams enter the Playoffs.  The Superbowl is the prize and I know who’s going to win.  How?  Well I’ve studied the form, tracked the players and analysed the match-ups. The answer is below in my ‘Playoff Predictor’ pic and team previews.

Ha!  In all seriousness, this is just my attempt at working out who will be crowned champions based on the possible scenarios, but in the NFL it’s well known that any team can beat any other on ‘Any Given Sunday‘.

AFC Conference

Baltimore

It’s true that for most of the season I thought the Ravens were over-rated but their performance against the Giants in week 16 when they won 33-14 was a reminder of what they can do, especially on home turf.  On this basis I see them blasting away the Colts but narrowly succumbing to the Broncos a week later.

Cincinnati

Despite a much vaunted defence who’ve only conceded 42 points on the road in their last 4 games, I don’t fancy the Bengals to overcome Houston in the Wild Card round.  I suspect it’ll be tight but am just edging with the Texans to have too much firepower in the end.

Denver

Peyton Manning has made a much expected difference to the Broncos this season and has helped them make ‘Mile High’ Stadium into a fortress to be respected.  Being the number 1 seeds in the conference they’re scheduled to have home advantage until the Superbowl, but despite getting past the Ravens I see them coming unstuck against the Patriots in the Championship decider.  The only team they’ve faced of that calibre at home this year was the Texans in week 1 and they went down 25-31.

Houston

I’ve already mentioned that I see the Texans sneaking past the Bengals in the Wild Card round but for me that’s as far as they’ll go.  With New England looming in the next round I’d be surprised if they can reverse the 42-14 hammering they got at the hands of the Patriots in week 14.  Yes, the score did flatter the home side but the psychological advantage is the most difficult one to over-turn.

Indianapolis

I didn’t expect the Colts to get this far and my expectation now is that they’ll start to run out of ‘Luck‘.  Okay, enough of the cruddy jokes, but realistically the Colts have been 2 different sides this season – the one at home and the one on the road.  Unfortunately for them their meeting against Baltimore is away from home and whenever they’ve come up against top teams on their travels this year they’ve come out on the wrong side (Bears,Patriots,Texans).  I don’t think this will change in the post-season.

New England

For me, the Patriots are the team to beat although they’ll have to get past the altitude and vociferous support in Denver to get to the Superbowl.  The return of Rob Gronkowski from injury against Miami last week is a big plus and I just see them as a much more all rounded team this year.  A finale against the 49ers who beat them 34-41 in week 15 would be a cracker.

NFC Conference

Atlanta

If there’s an over-rated team this season then maybe the Falcons fit the bill?  Their performances, especially at home this season, have been mostly unconvincing although that hasn’t stopped them from from winning 7 from 8.  They may have been able to sneak past the Raiders and Cardinals, but I think either the Seahawks or the Redskins will have the advantage come the Divisional Playoff.

Green Bay

The Packers lost to the Vikings last week to give their opponents a playoff berth, but I can see revenge on the cards at Lambeau Field this weekend.  Ultimately though it will all be in vain, as the 49ers will prove too much in San Francisco. Despite having Aaron Rodgers ,Green Bay’s away form has just been too scratchy.

Minnesota

To my mind, Adrian Peterson will have to rush another 200 yards if the Vikings are to stand a chance of overcoming the Packers away from home on Saturday.  I think they may have already run their race and I’m not sure how much they have left in the tank for another almighty tussle.  Both teams know each other well with the Packers winning this fixture 23-14 in week 13.

San Francisco

The 49ers have come up with some big performances over the season but none more so than their 30-22 road trip victory to the Packers in week 1.  As I see these two teams matching up in the Divisional Playoff I can see the 49ers repeating the dose but from there things will get a little trickier.  The Redskins and RG3 will provide a stubborn test in the Championship game but a small edge in cooler heads will sneak them through to the main event where Brady and the Patriots will be waiting.

Seattle

I’ve been a big fan of the Seahawks this season and I’m chuffed for them that they’ve reached this stage.  However, they’re also going up against a team in the Redskins that I feel have also been under-rated.  Home ground advantage is likely to make the difference and Seattle may have to wait another year.  Needless to say, Marshawn Lynch is a crucial player for them.

Washington

Like Manning at Denver, the arrival of Robert Griffin III at the Redskins has been inspirational.  For a rookie he’s been a revelation and I’m already a big fan of his alongside his partner in crime Alfred Morris.  I can see the Redskins going well if they can get past the Seahawks but maybe all the way is a little bit too much to ask?

Price Too Short?

Denver @ 4.2, Atlanta @ 9, Green Bay @ 9.4

Price Too Big?

Washington @ 34, Baltimore @ 26

So what does 2013 have in store for me and what ambitions do I feel the need to plan for?  In an ideal world I’d love to be able to increase my profits by another 50%+ but if this became a reality I’d then be knocking on the door of incurring Betfair’s highest level of premium charges, and with it a whole host of different challenges.

At the same time I probably need to become more realistic.  Yes, I did say I could put more money through the markets but even though this is possible it doesn’t mean I’ll be mentally strong enough to cope with it.  Scaling up can be a big challenge on the mind as the numbers you play with start growing bigger and although I’d like to think I’ve coped well until now, there’s no doubt in my mind that this is where it’ll start to get really tough.  Afterall, who puts large amounts into the market?  My guess is that the majority are big players, who on the whole are very shrewd and know what they’re doing.   They won’t be offering any freebies so if I’m going to make more the chances are it’ll have to come from them.

So I think the plan is to just try and grow on my 2012 figures.  Whether that’s 2%, 20% or 200% shouldn’t concern me as I should just focus on each individual event at a time.  There’s a huge temptation to think only about the money but the key is to only focus on the process and let the outcome take care of itself.

Cricket also has to play a leading role, and I now think of this sport in the same way as day traders think of Pork Bellies and Orange Juice.  With another 270+ televised matches likely over the next year I really need to target the big tournaments and this is how the calendar currently looks (rough guide) :

Of course there’ll be One Day Internationals and Test matches outside of these tournaments, but my aim has to be to better what I did last year and with 76 matches over 2 months the IPL will once again play a major role.

Other sports?  Well the main back-ups will continue to be Rugby Union and NFL whilst the jury is out as to whether Darts will figure at all.

Anything else?  Nope, that’s it, the plan is set, it’s time for my biggest year!

So in 2012 I was able to go up a gear but what sports helped me achieve my aim and when compared to my review of 2011 at the beginning of last year, have there been any big shifts?

Here’s the ‘good sports’….

Cricket (UP 63%)

Part of my plan for 2012 was that I had to concentrate on the sports that were profitable to me and really go for it.  As Cricket has been my ‘go to’ sport for quite some time it seemed logical that this is where I needed to target my energy and it looks like things paid off.  In total I traded 277 matches (7 more than in 2011) and each match was worth  an additional 57.16% to me than the year before.  The T20 World Cup filled the void of the 50 over equivalent and it would seem that the Champions Trophy being held in England will need to do the same for me in 2013.

Football (UP 268%)

The increase in my returns from Football betting look impressive but in all honesty there wasn’t much to start from as over the years it’s a sport I’ve only dabbled with rather than give a lot of attention too.  However, that’s not to say I’m not pleased with the result.  The time and effort I put in sifting through the data to create ‘Soccer In Play’ definitely helped and I’ve gradually become more aware of the effect of in-game tactics than I used to.  Alongside that I also feel I now have a much better handle on pricing up matches before kick-off.  It may have been a flash in the pan but I’d be happy with the same outcome from this sport over the next 12 months.

Then there were the ‘inbetweener’ sports – the ones that were consistent but didn’t grow as hoped….

NFL (DOWN 2%)

Have to admit that I’m a little disappointed I was unable to kick on with my NFL results as I feel my knowledge of the game and the match odds market has improved vastly over the last 12 months.  Add to this some excellent in-play guidance from Andy and the team over at NFL Insight and I’m left thinking some got away.  If there’s a positive to draw on it’s that I’m sure it’s all part of the process and I’m sure I’m better equipped now to progress than at any time in the past.

Rugby Union (DOWN 19%)

This looks a bit worse than it was as there wasn’t a Rugby World Cup to provide additional games to trade in 2012.  That said though, I’m still concerned about the in-play liquidity for most domestic matches on Betfair and a change of approach maybe needed where I take more of an outright stance.  Hopefully I can also make the most of the gems Russ Petty gives to his  followers on twitter too – the guy knows his stuff!  Thanks Russ

Finally, the ‘spoil sports’ of 2012….

Darts (DOWN 155%)

Like a cheap date I couldn’t resist her advances, and after promising myself that I’d hung up my darts mouse for good I was lured into the dark night of the World Championships.  The ‘fling’ didn’t last long as I realised the error of my ways, but the damage was done.  If only I’d stopped the romance after the Premier League had finished earlier in the year.

Betfair Premium Charges (UP 58%)

Boo! Hiss!  I hear the cries of disdain throughout the land but there’s no getting away from the fact that the Betfair Premium Charge is here to stay and it continues to be an almighty fly in the ointment.  As far as I can see there isn’t an easy way to reduce the pain as all potential remedies revolve around ‘losing’ more on the exchange.  Something which I’m sure you’ll agree, doesn’t rest easily on many gamblers shoulders.  If I’m ‘lucky’ enough to reach the PC3 threshold then something will have to give, a 60% tax on my weekly profits would be a huge cross to bare.

In part 3 of my annual review I’ll round-up my plans for what needs to be my biggest ever year.

Well that’s it for 2012 and it’s time for me to do a round-up of my progress over the last 12 months.  Some of you may remember that I did something similar last year and I found it really helped me evaluate where I was going and in making plans on how I could get there.

So, not being one to change something that’s not broken, here’s my overview… 

The Results

The bit that matters is that I was able to build on my first year of full time sports investing and earned 54.55% more in 2012 than in 2011.  I’m really chuffed with those numbers as even though I had a target figure in mind of 50% at the beginning of the year I’m not sure I thought it was achievable.  I’ll go into a little bit more detail in part two of this review which sports were kind to me, but by sticking to my plan things just seemed to click into place and as the year wore on the figures just started to build.

The following graph breaks down my year into quarters and you can see that the big improvements came from July onwards when compared to 2010 and 2011.

So why the change?  How come I was able to keep on growing at a time of the year that traditionally stagnates?  From looking at my records it seems it was mainly down to 3 things; the emergence of Football profits (helped by ‘Soccer In Play’?), the T20 World Cup and cutting out involvement on sports that had a negative expectancy (e.g. horse racing & darts).

It’s nice to be able to look back and pinpoint these improvements but the big question now is can I keep on going?  How much further growth can I expect?  In what could be my last year on Betfair, I can only make an educated guess based on conditions remaining the same (no further Betfair charges, changes to the law etc) but from playing the cricket markets I would say I could manageably push through 2/3 times the volume that I’ve done this year.  It’s comforting to think that’s possible as one thing I’ve realised as I’ve grown is that liquidity has become more and more important.   Trading in-play on some sports is no longer feasible due to this reason alone, and some are on their last legs (rugby union) and a change in approach will probably be needed soon.

If you’re new to sports trading and have ambitions to grow then keep this in mind from the outset.

In January I also mentioned I’d be tracking the number of hours I worked in order to get a feel for how many hours I’m putting in compared to the rewards I’m getting out.  An interesting exercise which I’ve strangely enjoyed – here’s the final count:

The key points?  Well I racked up over 2000 hours either trading, researching or updating databases.  That’s quite a bit but even so, still some way from the illustrious 10,000 hour mark.  Maybe we need to clock up 5 full years to attain expert sports trading status?  I’m guessing since August 2006 I’ve notched 9,000

The other noticeable thing was I only had 26 full days off.  Not much considering most in ‘normal’  full time employment would get 2 a week plus holiday entitlements.  It’s too be expected though – ultimately sport takes place in other peoples ‘leisure time’ and if you want to bet/trade on it then this is a sacrifice you need to put up with.  The plus point though is that not every day was a 8-10 hour slog.  On some days, as you can see from the pic, I barely turned on the PC.

In my next post I’ll look at the ‘good’ and the ‘bad’ sports that made up my year, but in the meantime have a great New Years Eve and I wish you a healthy and prosperous 2013!

G’day mates!  It does feel like I go on about this tournament every year, but in case you didn’t know the Australian T20 Big Bash League starts tomorrow with Murali’s Melbourne Renegades going up against Warne’s Melbourne Stars.

Yes, I know there seems to be more and more T20 tournaments popping up all over the globe and maybe things are reaching a saturation point but this competition is probably my favourite of the lot, AND there’s the added bonus this year that all the games will be televised live on SKY.  Bingo!

The quality on show is normally high, there’s usually big attendances and the start times are pretty good (8am GMT tomorrow) so it really does have the lot.  All you have to do is figure out how to profit on it – easy eh?

Not really, but I generally have a lot more confidence when playing these markets than in some other tournaments, which basically means you can pretty much trust what you’re seeing on the pitch.

From a betting point of view I plan to trade the majority of the matches in-play (I’ll miss 2 as I’m going away for a weekend – bad planning ) but I’m also likely to dabble with some straight up punts if I spot some value.  Either way, I’ll try and post my thoughts on twitter as and when I get any.

If you do get involved then good luck and enjoy it, but if you feel the need to brush up on your betting knowledge then why not take a look at Bettingexpert’s newly launched Academy?  There’s some great guides there if you want to start taking your betting more seriously.

Come to think of it, I also did an interview for Bettingexpert recently which if you missed you can catch here.