Mark Iverson - Professional Sports Trader

Closing Scene

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 08:40:00 +0000

After blogging for the last 26 months I've come to the conclusion that this is where my story will end.

I've taken the last couple of weeks to decide if this is the right thing to do and the truth is I'm finding it very hard to motivate myself to jot down my thoughts. Generally, I've realised that I no longer have anything interesting to say! At the beginning of this journey I was experiencing lots of new situations and emotions so getting them out of my system through writing a blog proved very helpful, but now the thought of having to think of something to say is proving to be a distraction that I think I can live without. Initially, I had two objectives and as they've now been achieved it seems the right time to call it a day. This isn't to say that I'm going to stop trading though. My plans on that front remain the same and although it's been difficult to get through the quiet Winter months I'm optimistic that the Summer will generate a good return.
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Just in case you're wondering, I haven't 'done' my bank, and to round things off here's a summary of my results since my last post :

Since Last Update P/L: £277.29

Cricket : £35.13

Darts : £68.11

Golf : £55.99

Rugby Union : £220.46

Soccer : £35.96

Premium Charge : £68.10

May I take this opportunity to thank you all for reading and to those of you that have left me comments along the way they've been very much appreciated. For those who've also expressed concern with Caden's health, the good news is that he celebrated his 1st birthday on Wednesday (where has the time gone?) and now has a much better future to look forward to. Personally, I'd also like to thank you for your support during the dark times of last year - it meant a great deal.

As they say in Llandow - ciao for now...

(EXIT STAGE LEFT)

Artificial Intelligence

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 16:50:00 +0000

Since Last Update P/L: £2.10
Monthly P/L: £1,007.43

It's funny what you can find by trawling through the recesses of unused folders on your hard drive. Yesterday I stumbled upon one of those forgotten files - a Classic IQ Test that I'd taken when visiting the old Tickle site a couple of years ago.

I wouldn't have described myself as a 'Visual Mathematician' previously, but after re-reading my results a lot of things seem to make sense:

"You have a strong ability to process visual-spatial and mathematical information. These skills combined with your strengths in logic are what make you a Visual Mathematician.

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You're able to understand patterns visually and in numbers. That means your mind can create a mental picture for any problem. In addition to that skill, you possess an intelligence that allows you to apply maths to that picture, too. That helps you manipulate multiple parts of the picture (or problem) to come up with a solution.

You have many skills that are critical to success and problem-solving. Your talents help you understand the "big picture," which is partly why people may turn to you for direction -- especially in the workplace. You flourish in environments where tasks are clearly defined, and you excel at improving processes and making things more efficient. Like Einstein, your ability to detect patterns and your skills in maths and logic, make it natural for you to come up with ideas and theories that simplify processes for everyone."

All job offers and public appearances considered - LOL! Seriously though, is it my ability to recognise patterns that make me well suited to trading? It seems a reasonable explanation, and as I'm also a Project Manager I'm glad to see that improving processes and making things more efficient should be one of my strengths.

Now, back to the usual stuff...

Trading has been slow over the last week and as I haven't been feeling too clever I decided to close the book on February to secure a profit of over a thousand pounds for the month. Achieving little milestones like that (especially in my off season) are important to me and allow me a pat on the back before concentrating on new challenges ahead. As it won't be long before I'm over-whelmed with a number of events to trade, this small break has been more than welcome.

Mr. Plod (my adopting name for the 'PC' - get it?) has continued to rear his ugly head so the losses on soccer and horse racing mentioned below are mainly my attempts at trying to duck the deductions. Here's my final results for February:

Darts : £66.10

Horse Racing : £4.06

Rugby Union : £14.48

Soccer : £18.87

Premium Charge : £59.75

Elsewhere, rumours are rife on the forums regarding Betfair's latest intentions. Allegedly, they are due to release a new product called 'Mini Games' very soon. Not content with enticing people via the casino and arcade, they are now internallly testing a product which will add fruit machines to your betting slip! So where you see Place Bet, My Bets, Rules & Help, you will also now see 'Mini Games' - just in case you were so addicted to losing money that you can't get a fix for another three minutes to the next race! I'll let you decide the ethics behind this one but it seems so bizarre how a company can change it's corporate strategy so quickly and purposefully turn full circle on it's loyal customers. Of course, this could all be 'hear say' but I wouldn't bet against it. If it does happen, then in my opinion Betfair must be struggling to fund their worldwide expansion.

Tugging Heart Strings

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 19:22:00 +0000

Since Last Update P/L: £245.79

Monthly P/L: £1,009.53

I've never been able to figure out why some people always bet on their favourite team. After all, should your team lose you not only have to get over the reality that they're perhaps not as good as you thought, but your pockets are also a bit emptier than when the game started. A double whammy. Correction, a triple whammy, as if you follow a high profile team such as Man Utd, Chelsea etc. then the chances are your bet didn't didn't even offer value as the odds on offer were reduced by other casual 'blind' fanatics.

So what's the answer? Well, "don't bet" would be an acceptable one, but if the temptation is too great then how about backing the other team? This does sound a bit hard to swallow but it's exactly what I did on Saturday when Wales packed down to face England in the Six Nations. I had sweaty palms that England would put in a strong performance and thought that Wales' match odds price of 1.27 was way too short. A quick scan of the other markets then allowed me to notice that England were available at even money with a 10.5 point head start. My decision was made - I'd oppose Wales for the match and back England to cover the handicap. If Wales won by over 10.5 points then I'd be out of pocket to the sum of £65 (a loss that would be worth it!) but if England won or lost by less of a margin then I'd at least break even. A no lose situation in my eyes! By full time, the winning margin of 8pts fell exactly where I wanted :-)

Here's my latest results:

Cricket : £134.53

Darts : £264.02

Rugby Union : £16.72

Soccer : £95.87

Premium Charge : £73.61

Rewind?

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 19:33:00 +0000

Since Last Update P/L: £132.77
Monthly P/L: £763.74

A question I've been asking myself recently is, "If I rewound the clock and only had £250 available to me, would I start this trading journey all over again?"

At this point I could just give you a quick answer, but let me pause for a moment to consider where I was then, and if I can, recall what my aims were at the time.

Gaining a steady income from gambling had long been a dream and I was getting fed up of winning, losing and then repeating the cycle for a small profit. It seemed as though I'd explored every system and I was a whisker away from declaring that it wasn't possible to make money (at least a reasonable amount) from this game. Then the 'Eureka' moment came when I realised that I didn't have to predict who would win a contest but just what would happen next. Whether this was during the next 30 minutes or 30 seconds didn't matter, as long as I called it right more often than not.

This saw a huge shift in my outlook and after spending some brief time putting together some strategies everything started to fall into place. I remember thinking at the time, "Why haven't I thought of this before?"

Over the next few months my initial feelings were proved correct and my extremely modest bankroll began to grow....quickly. Suddenly, everything felt possible and I could see a huge opportunity in front of me. How could I let it pass me by? Even though my gains were quite small at the time I always had a plan for where I was heading. By re-investing my winnings I'd be able to place bigger trades and make bigger profits - right?

To a degree this is how it's worked out, but it hasn't been easy. Sacrifices have been made as Nic will testify, but I feel it's been worth it as I'm continuing to make progress. However, I'm by no means at the destination yet. The carrot is still dangling in my front of my face and the window of opportunity is yet to close, but to answer my initial question, "Would I do it all again?"

Probably not. The Betfair Premium Charge has ended dreams before they've begun and with only a small amount of cash in my back pocket, I probably wouldn't have bothered putting in all the hard work. Unfortunately, I'm guessing that those of you reading this who are where I was then, will feel the same.

My recent results:

Cricket : £114.29

Horse Racing : £18.48

Losing It

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 19:30:00 +0000

Since Last Post P/L: £630.97

Monthly P/L: £630.97

Caden has suffered from a bout of sickness and diarrhoea this week so with looking after him, fighting the snow and coping with the launch of a new product in work it's surprising I've been able to make any profit at all!

Following a nice win on the 1st ODI International between Australia and New Zealand I decided that I needed to investigate ways of lessening the Premium Charge burden. My initial thoughts were to put together a horse laying system that over a period of time returned a break even p&l with an even percentage of winners of losers. My first foray into this strategy ended in a small loss of £28.43 (which is more than I would have paid in terms of PC) but it's not an approach that can be judged on one day so I won't fret just yet. It is a sad state of affairs though when you have to consider how to lose in order to keep hold of profit.

With 'losing' firmly in my mindset I then thought to myself, "Hey, what the heck, why not take another look at Tennis?" and proceeded to spend a good few hours going through some simulated scenarios. Although the Movistar Open currently being held in Chile isn't Wimbledon, it served it's purpose and provided some enlightening moments. Although I'm still paying for my education I'm beginning to see some light at the end of the tunnel.

Here's a round-up of my results for February:

American Football : £12.60

Cricket : £434.79

Darts : £94.10

Horse Racing : £28.43

Rugby Union : £249.35

Tennis : £53.82

Premium Charge : £77.62

Moving Target

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 14:23:00 +0000

Since Last Update P/L: £253.03

Monthly P/L: £1,008.37

Apologies for the lack of updates this week but it’s been a busy few days. Not so much for my trading activity but more to do with some odd jobs that needed taking care of.

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However, the I’m glad to report that January 2009 has developed into my most successful beginning to the year since I started this trading lark. In 2007 my winnings totalled £137.22 and in 2008 they only went up to £304.01, so to post a figure over £1,000 this year signifies that I’m continuing to move in the right direction. Okay, it didn’t all go to plan (Ulrika did win Celebrity Big Brother) but overall I’m happy with the return and with the rest of year promising plenty of cricketing action things are looking good.

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Looking back though, it’s funny how my thought process has changed over the last two years. Back then my goals were to pay the monthly telephone/electricity bill etc. and now I’m dreaming of new cars and fancy holidays! I guess there’s a lesson in there – targets should always be within reach but far enough away to keep you driven.

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Here’s my final results for January:

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Rugby Union : £138.13
Cricket : £132.81
Special Bets : £5.14
Poker : £1.48
Premium Charge : £24.53
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So what does February hold? Well, I’m generally expecting it to be another quiet month with the occasional highlight brightening up the wintry gloom. Most notably the Six Nations commences and my views on Wales defending the trophy haven’t changed. A lot will depend on their first game against Scotland – a win and momentum will rocket, defeat and 4th/5th position beckons. With their odds at around 3.25 to win the Championship I wouldn’t be tempted just yet.

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In keeping with the Rugby theme it shouldn’t be forgotten that the Super League starts on Friday. Leeds face new boys Celtic Crusaders in the first televised game and although I’d love the Bridgend based team to do well I can’t see it happening. If anyone disagrees, you can get 140 on Betfair for them to go on and win the Grand Final.

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Then there’s the Superbowl. Arizona have surprised everybody and although I’m already on Pittsburgh I wouldn’t put it past the Cardinals on taking the prize. I have an ‘icky’ feeling in my stomach that the underdogs may just come through so there’s a good chance I’ll hedge my bets at some point. Either way you can’t fault the event as a spectacle, and I’ll be staying up late to watch it.

Daylight Robbery

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 19:56:00 +0000

Since Last Update P/L: £76.14
Monthly P/L: £755.34

I'm not in the best of moods right now following the discovery of my Betfair Premium Charge for last week - £76.14!

So that everyone that reads this post understands, let's make this clear. This is a charge that Betfair make even after they've taken commission AND one which incurs no risk to themselves!

To make that £400 profit I had to put big sums of money on the line (to me at least) and back my own judgement. I could have lost, but because I don't very often (through skill and hard work) I'm victimised and left feeling like an employee. The graph above shows all of my wins and losses for the month so far and you can see that the Premium Charges (the dark red columns) are currently clocking up most of the negative figures.

I know there are many other traders out there paying more than this but I still find it unbelievable how a company can change their business ethics and hike their charges up so much (and get away with it) practically overnight.

Until now I vowed to myself that I'd give Betfair the benefit of the doubt until I could at least judge for myself, but after the last couple of weeks I'm now convinced they're totally taking advantage of their position in the marketplace and extorting the people they've previously gone out of their way to attract! I'm not a happy bunny and with the cricket season fast approaching I really need to consider my options.

I'll change topic briefly. Tomorrow sees the final of Celebrity Big Brother and I've gone 'All In' on Coolio. For some reason I've got a feeling Verne won't win, so it's seems a straight shoot-out between Terry and the American rapper.

A Premium Pressie

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 18:36:00 +0000

Since Last Update P/L: £333.97

Monthly P/L: £831.48

It had to happen sooner or later. Last Wednesday saw me incur my first Betfair Premium charge and even though I thought I'd prepared myself, it still left a sour taste in the mouth. I know it's only £15 but when there are no tools/warnings to help predict what this charge will be then it's very difficult to budget for. Being a successful trader/punter is all about control. From stake sizes to discipline it's all part of the big picture, so not having a clue how much Betfair will take at the end of the week tends to go against the grain of things. With this week providing a decent profit, I've got a funny feeling that the size of my gifts are about to start getting bigger.

Okay, rant over.

Here are my latest results:

American Football : £119.79

Cricket : £21.46

Greyhound Racing : £10.22

Horse Racing : £2.88

Rugby Union : £195.55

Premium Charge : £15.93

The NFL playoffs have so far provided a mix bag. I've been able to make surprisingly good amounts on trading individual matches but a lot of my picks for the big prize have fallen by the wayside. My top seeds Pittsburgh will now have to deliver if I'm to finish the Superbowl Winner market in profit.

What about the rest? The 2nd ODI International between Australia and South Africa was fun to trade and helped me get back into the swing of things but once more I made too many wrong decisions. That's the beauty of cricket though - you get so many opportunities to put things right.

The Heineken Cup has been great entertainment (how good were Cardiff?) and my mouth is now watering at the prospect of the Six Nations. From a Welsh perspective I'm confident of another good show but I wouldn't be backing them at 15/8 for the Championship. Scotland will be a tough opener and a lot rides on that first result.

Best not to ask about the Horse and Greyhound Racing ;-)

Caught Out

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 19:55:00 +0000

Since Last Update P/L: £306.13
Monthly P/L: £497.51

We've all played Monopoly and we've all been saved by the 'Get Out Of Jail Free' card. Up until Sunday morning I'd forgotten how sweet that feeling was.

Yet again, I'm kicking myself as I should know better. Twenty 20 Cricket is a high octane event and whilst I'd call it my specialised subject, I'm prone to forgetting that it takes time to adjust to the speed of the game - especially after not trading it for a while. So it shouldn't really surprise me that this is exactly what happened when I settled down to watch the Aussies take on the South Africans over the weekend. After being extremely hasty to get involved I was licking my wounds at the turn of innings and staring at a near maximum loss. It was time to steady the ship and fortunately after playing things tight I was able to recoup most of the deficit. Not an ideal way to start the season! However, I do find it comforting to know that even when I get multiple decisions wrong, I'm still able to make just a small loss. The ability to do this when things aren't going my way ends up saving me a hell of a lot of money over the course of a year and it keeps on reminding me that if I can keep to big wins, small wins and small losses I'll end up being a pretty successful trader.

Which leads me onto my next subject - Million Dollar Traders. The idea for the TV Programme that was screened on BBC 2 last night is similar to that described in the book, 'The Way Of The Turtle'. Give ordinary people some money, teach them to trade and watch them succeed. At least that's the idea, but any of you who caught the first show last night will vouch that it didn't look that simple! What made me laugh was how similar the experiences of the novices on the show were to when I started on Betfair. I'm sure many of you recognised the weaknesses; lack of discipline, too much emotion, hesitancy, bad timing, over analysis, reluctance to trade, laziness etc. The list goes on. All good entertainment and it'll be interesting to see how the volunteers fare in the coming weeks. One not to miss, and if I'm truthful I'm a little envious that I missed out on giving this show a go :-)

One last question. I've been a big fan of the Bet Angel team since becoming a customer of theirs over two years ago, and have always been inspired when I watch any of Peter Webb's trading videos. So after reading various new blogs where the authors mention that they've attending Peter's trading course, I now believe the time has come to make a decision on whether I'm serious about trading Horse Racing. Progress on my own systems has been slow so perhaps it's time to gather some insight? This is where I need your advice. If you've attended Peter's course previously then please leave me a comment and let me know if you think it will be suitable to my style. All the testimonials on the site look good (as you'd expect) but for £400 I'd like some independent advice before moving ahead.

Any help would be appreciated ;-)

Here's my full list of latest results:

American Football : £265.19

Cricket : £33.18

Horse Racing : £18.60

Rugby Union : £55.00

Green House

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Sat, 10 Jan 2009 14:42:00 +0000

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The figures might not be the biggest but after making a series of small trades I've managed to make a green book on the Celebrity Big Brother market. Verne Troyer continues to lead the way and even though he's a justified hot favourite there's the risk that the Producers could still throw another contestant into the mix to liven things up. If they do it's likely to be one of them characters that you'll either love or loathe so be careful about jumping on the 'Mini-Me' train to early. One surprise is the price available on Coolio. Okay, he's controversial and a tad annoying but you can't deny that he's entertaining. With that kind of personality I wouldn't be surprised to see his price shorten quickly if/when he comes up with something unpredictable.
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Elsewhere, the 21st January sees a planned 'Betfair' protest organised by Dariusz from the blog 'Betdaq Revolution'. It's a chance for those of you affected by the Betfair Premium Charge to make your feelings known. Even though I'm all for increased competition in the Betting Exchange market I won't be taking part this time. This is my quiet time of the year and even if I stopped using Betfair for 2 weeks they'd hardly notice.
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From Another Planet

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 19:53:00 +0000

Since Last Post P/L: £146.04
Monthly P/L: £187.02

Has anyone checked to see if Phil Taylor has the markings, 'Made In Taiwan' anywhere on his body? After demolishing Barney in a very one sided contest, the man from Stoke made it 14 World Titles and ended a glorious 12 months in style. He really is a freak and it baffles me how he can be so far ahead of the others. Okay, he practices - alot - but I'm sure most of the players do these days with the amount of prize money on offer, so what makes Taylor score 20 points more than the rest every 3 darts?

It has to be the psychological advantage he holds and the way he uses it for maximum effect. The pre-final interview revealed a significant amount when he admitted that at the first sign of weakness he would look to bully his opponent. Do all the top stars think this way? I'm sure they do, and when they have the game to back it up they become formidable opponents. If ever there was a man who deserved to win 'Sports Personality of the Year' then you'd need not look further than 'The Power'. Sadly, it seems that prize is one that will elude him.

Elsewhere, things have trickled along nicely. The NFL Playoffs results have so far edged in my favour and after adding LaToya Jackson to my Celebrity Big Brother portfolio I'm feeling a little more comfortable. An interesting few weeks lie ahead.

Darts

Van Barneveld v Wade : £70.27

Taylor v King : £0.02

Taylor v Van Barneveld : £19.64

Rugby Union

Leicester v Bath : £27.18

Wasps v Harlequins : £29.12

American Football

Baltimore v Miami : £4.17

Superbowl Winner : £4.36

First Impressions

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 13:05:00 +0000

Since Last Post P/L: £40.98

Monthly P/L: £40.98
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Celebrity Big Brother got underway last night and even though it may seem a little sad, the thought of all these prima-donnas arguing over the milk gets me excited. The line-up is a good mix of personalities but one in particular looks to have stolen the show already.

Verne Troyer is best known for the role he played as Mini-Me in the Austin Powers series of films, and even though he only measures 2 feet 8 inches it seems he's been keen to explore other opportunities since the last movie 'Goldmember' was released in 2002. Gus from the Tellybetting blog has already pointed out that Verne has some form when it comes to reality shows and as I'm a big believer in first impressions I've decided to make a play after just the first show. I'm opposing the female contestants as voting usually goes the way of the males when the decision on who gets evicted gets put to the public. Here's my book as it currently stands:

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Tonight also sees the start of the NFL playoffs and as usual I've tried to predict the eventual winner of the Superbowl. Last year I did quite poorly so I'm hoping to rectify things over the coming weeks and the following rankings are how I see the teams at the minute based on them meeting at a neutral venue. The latest Betfair odds are in brackets.
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1. Pittsburgh (6.4)
2. Baltimore (16)
3. Philadelphia (16.5)
4. Indianapolis (12)
5. NY Giants (4.1)
6. Tennessee (7.2)
7. Carolina (7.0)
8. Minnesota (42)
9. Atlanta (36)
10. Arizona (65)
11. Miami (55)
12. San Diego (22)
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With the way the seeding system works it's not just a case of backing the top team, so after trying to decipher the outcomes of each game I've dutched the following teams:
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The big gamble is opposing Tennessee. I think they've flattered to deceive this season and even though they finished the regular season with a 13-3 record I can't see them pushing past the likes of Pittsburgh at this stage. They have afterall, lost 3 of their last 6 games. Famous last words eh?!?
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The PDC World Darts Championships also now rolls onto the Semi-Finals and how good was it to see Barney take out a 9 darter last night? He was on fire against Klaasen and the thought of him versus Taylor in the Final is a mouth watering prospect. I can't see Wade causing him too much of a problem on current form.
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I blew a bit of profit last night but at least I've started the year in a positive way:
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Darts
King v Bates : £25.54
Taylor v Stompe : £44.97
Nicholson v Wade : £49.73
Van Barneveld v Klaasen : £79.26
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Cheerio 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 17:16:00 +0000

Since Last Post P/L: £641.21
Monthly P/L: £1,053.89
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With all the pre-tournament anticipation and media build-up it's very easy to get carried away during the first few matches of the PDC Darts World Championships, and that's exactly what I did. I should've known better as by the end of Day 2 I'd traded in 6 matches and dug myself a loss of just over £250. Needless to say my confidence wasn't very high and a different approach was needed. Yep, it was time to cut back on my stake sizes and to just concentrate on making a profit in each market. It sounds easy to say but in reality it's much more difficult to practice, so I had to remind myself that my strategy was sound and that it had produced good results in 2007. That's the problem with Darts - there are not an awful lot of televised events, and when there are the format is often different to the one before. Not ideal conditions when you're trying to perfect entry and exit points!

Anyway, the following 28 events were a grind but I stuck to my guns and ended with a profit in 22 of them. The temptation once I'd started winning was to up the ante, but I resisted the itchy feelings and thanks to this discipline am now able to post a profit of over a grand for December. Here are my final results for 2008:

Darts

Jenkins v Smith : £42.86
Painter v Clark : £86.72
Priestley v French : £4.01
Bates v McBrearty : £55.42

Tabern v Beaton : £120.19

Van Gerwen v Young : £146.77

Walsh V Cavern : £40.74

Dudbridge v Fulwell : £17.21

Mardle v Fatum : £24.04

Manley v Sulijovic : £25.35

Mason v MaGowan : £27.38

Kantele v Ilagan : £57.58

Lewis v Stewart : £13.51

Lloyd V Klaasen : £6.03

Baxter v Kantele : £30.40

Osborne v losper : £20.07

Sulijovic v Dudbridge : £63.57

Taylor v Van Gerwen : £6.46

Mardle v Thornton : £38.71

Davis V Bates : £151.70

Baxter v Ovens : £11.97

Klaasen v Van Der Rassel : £91.12

Van Barneveld v Newton : £18.07

King v Walsh : £90.32

Priestley v MaGowan : £35.10

Osborne v Van Der Voort : £5.42

Wade v Eccles : £82.26

Taylor v Painter : £36.99

Bates V Dudbridge : £29.53

Nicholson v Priestley : £76.33

Smith v King : £67.65

Mardle v Stompe : £75.09

Hamilton v Klaasen : £117.40

Van Barneveld v Baxter : £22.52

From reading that lot it may seem that Christmas was cancelled in our house but I promise you that wasn't the case, as in total there's only about 24 hours work there. After the stress of Caden's operation we were determined to enjoy every minute of the holidays and that's what we did. Seeing his face on Christmas morning was magical and it really made us realise how lucky we are. No trading experience could ever beat that feeling.

So that's it then, the end of 2008 and if I'm honest I won't miss it! But from a trading viewpoint how have things gone?

My hope at the beginning of the year was to achieve a profit after commission of £15,000, but unfortunately I fell short. With the final figure ending on £11,938.86 I'm a little disappointed, but after all that's gone on I can't be too hard on myself. Afterall, I'm still only trading part-time and it does mean that I've been able to generate over £20,000 from my original bank of £250 during the course of the last 29 months. That's not a bad effort. However, the most satisfying bit of all this is that I haven't spent the lot! As some of you may be aware, I've always been keen to re-invest as much of my winnings as possible to enable me to play with bigger stakes as I move forward. This has continued throughout the year and my trading bank now stands at £18,216 - a healthy increase on the £8,346 that I started with last January. In case any of you are concerned that I may blow that lot in one go I'll make it clear that I only use a portion of it at any one time. My current maximum exposure is just over 13% which equates to a stake of £2,459. These trades only happen on sports where I feel I have my biggest edge e.g. Cricket, and when the odds fall between a certain price range e.g. 1.01 to 1.50. Managing my risk is vital if I'm to continue making money.

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So what does 2009 hold in store? Nobody knows, but I do have a few wishes and resolutions that I'd like to see come true from both a personal and trading perspective. First the serious one:
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1. That all my friends and family stay healthy. It's true what they say - without your health money means absolutely nothing. I'd really like a normal, uneventful year.
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Then the rest:
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2. Is a £20,000 target after commission being greedy? Probably, but I won't beat myself up if I don't get there. The important thing is that I keep growing. I have a few exciting ideas up my sleeve that I'd like to see turned into reality so watch this space ;-)
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3. I start using my blog more like blog. As I now I sound like I've lost the plot let me explain. Everytime I write a post I feel the need to go into detail about everything and write a bloomin' novel! I need to calm down, post more often and just record my thoughts. I don't want to record drivel but there are other things I'd like to get off my chest apart from my profit and loss. Watch out for me going into a 'Dear Diary' mode though!
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4. This last wish is something which is out of my control. Please, please Betfair don't look to extract any further fees from your successful customers. Just in case you're wondering. I don't class myself in this bracket, but I understand the damage that would be caused if these big fish left. I've gone into these reasons before so I won't repeat myself - so please Betfair, just don't do it.
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Okay, I think I've said enough :-)
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May I wish you all a Happy New Year and may the coming 12 months live up to your expectations.
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Ciao for now.
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Miracles Do Happen

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 21:26:00 +0000

Since Last Post P/L: £412.68

Monthly P/L: £412.68

The last few weeks have been hugely demanding and extremely stressful but I’m very happy to report that Caden has had his heart repair surgery and is now on the road to recovery. However, there’ve been many highs and lows and I wouldn’t wish an experience like this on my worst enemy.
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To begin with we were told the night before the operation that due to a lack of beds within intensive care, the operation would need to be postponed with there likely to be a 1-2 week delay. After travelling to Bristol you can imagine our despair – his condition was becoming more noticeable and we were now ready, we needed this to happen.
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Fortunately the surgeon could see our determination and agreed for us to stay at the hospital in the unlikely event that a slot became available. Luckily for us one did and the operation took place on the 20th November. For what seemed like the longest 5 hours we lulled around shopping centres and restaurants waiting for the phone call telling us everything was okay and when we were told that everything was over we all shared a huge sigh of relief. Apparently he had suffered 2 : 1 Heart Block when coming out of theatre but this was something they were able to treat quickly and in general things had gone well.

It was at this point I thought the worst was over. What I hadn’t considered was the possibility of any setbacks.
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The first day after the operation went to plan but when he started to show signs of deterioration on the second day panic started to set in. It turned out that fluid had started to collect around his heart and lungs and that another operation would be needed to drain what was there. The risks weren’t as great but I still had to sign the consent form and whenever that happens there’s always an element of doubt. A stark reminder of this was the 6 month year old boy in the next bed. He’d been admitted for a similar heart operation but following complications during the procedure he’d suffered a lack of oxygen to the brain. Unfortunately there was no way back and he passed away whilst we were there.
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With these thoughts fresh in the memory it was practically impossible to remain completely calm but I shouldn’t have worried as he sailed through. Even though this complication did set him back he started to show signs of improvement pretty quickly afterwards and within a few days he was fully conscious and trying to become more mobile. He was discharged a week later but within 48 hours were back in hospital. His temperature was spiking for no apparent reason and with the risk of infection high on the radar the doctors wanted to be safe rather than sorry.
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That worry has now died down and since then he’s been gradually on the mend. As of today the progress he’s made completely astounds me. He’s nearly back to being normal and if any of you reading this want proof of a living miracle then you’re welcome to visit :-) The little guy’s been through so much we’re now going to make sure he has the best ever first Christmas!
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At this point of my post I’d love to be able lift the mood but unfortunately I can’t as I was deeply saddened this week to read of the passing of Richard Wildman. Richard was a fellow blogger who fought a courageous battle against cancer throughout 2008 before finally succumbing on the 5th December. If medals were awarded for having a ‘positive outlook’ then Richard would have been at the front of queue as anyone who has read his posts would testify. At the age of 36 he leaves behind a wife and two children and my thoughts are with them at this desperately tough time.
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What I’ve mentioned above really does highlight how precious our time is in this life and this is something I need to make sure stays fresh in my mind. If in future I ever take Caden or any of my family for granted I need to stop, take stock and think about how much others who are less fortunate would love to swap places.
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For what it’s worth I’ve now also been able to start trading again. The Heineken Cup Rugby has been the main focus of my attention and here’s my full results for the month so far:
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American Football : £95.91
Horse Racing : £25.55
Rugby Union : £368.55
Special Bets : £8.26
Poker : £34.49
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The highlight of December always seems to be the PDC Darts World Championship and this year appears to be no exception. Things kickoff on Friday and even though Phil Taylor has had a phenomenal year I’m not sure if the tournament being hosted at Alexandra Palace suits him. The Circus Tavern was his territory but last year he looked a little lost in the new surroundings so it’s difficult for me to get too excited about his chances when his odds are hovering around the 1.60 mark. He’ll surely reach the latter stages but I’d be surprised if you aren’t able to get better odds at some point along the line.
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Either way, the 13 days of competition will determine how I finish the year – will I be a ‘star’ or a ‘turkey’?
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Thanks again to everyone who’s left supportive messages during the past few weeks – they meant a great deal.
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Merry Christmas to you all.
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Mark

End Of November Update

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 21:58:00 +0000

Since Last Post P/L: £5.07
Monthly P/L: £416.44
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A couple of casual poker games before making the trip to the hospital put a small dent in my total for November but I'm not unhappy. With everything else going on just making a profit is welcome :-)
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The Big One

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 12:47:00 +0000

Since Last Post P/L: £110.66
Monthly P/L: £421.51

I'd been hoping for a quiet week but an 8 month old baby had other ideas! Caden decided last Tuesday to get himself another infection and this unfortunately hit him harder than before. His oxygen saturation levels weren't good so it was back to the hospital for a very stressful 3 nights and it was only after the Doctors declared that his temperature was back under control that we were allowed to come home on Friday evening. With his full heart repair operation scheduled for Wednesday the worry was that any deterioration in his condition would force it to be delayed and in extreme circumstances this could be for up to another 6 weeks. With his 'tet spells' becoming more regular this is something we clearly want to avoid so it's sods law that Nicola woke up with a cold on Saturday morning! She's now been banned from going anywhere near him :-)

So this is it - the big one. As a natural control freak this feeling of uselessness isn't resting comfortably on my shoulders and with there little left for me to do, I'm now resigned to the events that lay ahead. The statistics are in our favour but I'm very nervous - I just want my little boy to be okay.

With all of this going on I've only been able to to take a quick look at a few events over the weekend. There've been some topsy turvey results and if I hadn't taken a look at the NFL last night I'd have saved myself £80.

American Football : £63.94

Horse Racing : £4.26

Rugby Union : £175.42

Soccer : £0.36

Poker : £5.44

Nevermind, other things are way more important and all of my attention now turns to what looks to be a hugely challenging few weeks. Hopefully life will start to return to normal come the beginning of December and I'll be able to let out a huge sigh of relief.

As I'm not likely to be around for a while, many thanks in advance for all the best wishes we may receive - they are a source of strength and we are hugely grateful.

Juggling Priorities

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 10:37:00 +0000

Since Last Post P/L: £310.85
Monthly P/L: £310.85
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Before now I've often been guilty of forgetting the contents of my previous post so with this in mind I'll get the bit about my head out of the way. The staples came out last Monday and if I do say so myself I was very brave (ha!) and all that remains is a chunky scar which should at least serve as a reminder on not to be such an idiot in future! Of course, despite this mental note I maintain that my mate was to blame :-)
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My trading involvement has been relatively quiet so it's given me a chance to catch up on some reading. 'Reminiscences of A Stock Operator' was one title missing from my collection and with it being regarded as one of the best I was starting to feel a bit like a fraud for not having given it a look previously. I haven't finished it yet so I won't give a full review but my initial impressions are that if you can get past the way the book is written (it was 80 years ago and wordings have changed) there are some hidden gems on how to look at the bigger picture. It seems that the big money is to be made in the big swings and this is not something I've given my full focus to before. I've often looked to just the short term and whether that's for 1 minute, 10 or 20 maybe I haven't fully considered the conditions of the markets I've been active in. Plenty of food for thought there.
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Where possible I've continued to try and lend Betdaq my business - it hasn't been easy but the graphic below will help illustrate that generating decent sized profits on some in-play markets is possible. I went on to lose a bit of this cash but that doesn't matter ;-)
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What about the rest? Well, the Stanford Superstars giving England a whooping did make me chuckle. Everyone at the ECB got what they deserved in my eyes, and I'm sure they're regretting the decision to get involved with the whole thing now. It was very embarrassing. People have made comparisons regarding the sums of money available to that in football but until now there's never been a situation where Chelsea have been pitched to play Arsenal for $20 million in a one off match. No, although I enjoyed the spectacle, the Stanford match represented greed and for that reason it left a sour taste in the mouth. Not sure my comments mean much though as it also netted me a profit!
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Anyway, here are my full results for the beginning of November:
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Cricket
Stanford Superstars v England : £169.86
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American Football
Green Bay @ Tennessee : £80.35
Dallas @ New York Giants : £48.33
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Horse Racing
Wolverhamption : £8.27
Plumpton : £9.47
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Soccer
Newcastle v Aston Villa : £9.58
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Rugby Union
Australia v New Zealand : £18.99
Scotland v New Zealand : £117.30
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Elsewhere, we've been given the date of the 19th November for Caden's full heart repair operation. This date has already been pushed back once so it's possible it could happen again but if everything goes to plan then the blog and my trading activity are likely to be put on hold come the end of the month. We're now at the stage where we just want to get the operation out of the way so that we can look forward to our first family Christmas.
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Licking My Wounds

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 18:45:00 +0000

Since Last Post P/L: £336.08

Monthly P/L: £525.03

The picture above is a current snapshot on the state of my head. Ouch! With hindsight, I'd say I was very very lucky. If I'd hit the radiator head on, then I'm sure the outcome would have been much worse and at least when the staples come out, my hair should cover any scarring.

The bad news is I'm a 4/6 shot to go bald!

On the trading front I've dabbled in the Stanford Super Series and enjoyed every minute. It's so nice to get back to trading a sport I can rely on. The Middlesex v Trinidad & Tobago game was a classic with both teams trading as exceptionally low favourites at different points of the match. Swings like this suit my style and as they offer so many opportunities there's a good chance I'll catch one of them. In this case that's what happened but the England v Trinidad & Tobago tussle was a different kettle of fish, and even though that one ended up going down to the wire my involvement had already ended with a loss.

As I'm keen to finish the month on a decent score I'm going to call it quits for October and save my energy for the $20 million game on Saturday. I haven't got a clue who will win but as long I make a profit I don't really care.

Here are my final results for October:

Cricket

Middlesex v Trinidad & Tobago : £422.98

England v Trinidad & Tobago : £86.90

Please...No More Drama

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 16:31:00 +0000

Since Last Post P/L: £42.75
Monthly P/L: £188.95

On Saturday night myself and Nicola were invited by my best mate to a Cancer Aid Charity Dinner that was being held at the Millennium Stadium. Finding it hard to turn down a freebie and as it was for a good cause we jumped at the offer and got dressed up for the black tie event. Bob Champion was the guest speaker, and even though I wouldn't describe him as a natural comedian, his story about how he fought back to beat Cancer before riding Aldaniti to victory in the Grand National was inspiring.

After several drinks everyone was enjoying themselves and it wasn't long before it was time for home. Our group was one of the last to leave and it was at this point the stupid behaviour started. My mate (the one who'd invited us) thought it would be apt given the surroundings to rugby tackle me as I walked down the corridor to the exit. Needless to say this wasn't a good idea and following a brief scuffle my head cracked into the side of the only radiator within 50 yards! I knew it was quite bad as people came rushing to help me, and with Nic crying in the background I guessed my head was in a bit a of a mess. Fast forward a couple of hours and I'm lying in the local A&E Department whilst a nurse puts 9 staples into my scalp to try and close the gash. We finally left at 6am and after inhaling enough gas & air to see most women through labour crashed off to sleep with a headache as soon as we got in.

Yesterday was then meant to be a day of doing 'nothing much' in order to aid my recovery but after picking Caden up from his Nan's, he experienced another 'tet spell' that is to be expected from time to time with his heart condition. These spells aren't nice things; he has a screaming fit, he turns blue and whilst this is happening we're supposed to keep him calm and hold his knees into his chest to increase the flow of blood to his lungs. This is what we did but after a few minutes he seemed to be getting worse rather than better so it was time to call for an Ambulance. As you can imagine, the longest 6 minutes passed before the paramedics turned up and it was only then that he started to come around. To make sure he was going to be okay the decision was made to take him to the hospital and after a thorough examination I'm pleased to say we were on our way back home.

Phew! I guess that when it rains, it pours :-)

With all of this going on I haven't been able to take a look at the Stanford Super Series yet. From what I can gather the pitch is proving to be a rather difficult one, so if I'm up to it tonight I'll take a look and hopefully get my month back on track.

Greyhound Racing : £2.36

Horse Racing : £2.56

Poker : £37.83

Just Ahead

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 18:07:00 +0000

Since Last Post P/L: £302.07

Monthly P/L: £231.70

The experimenting has continued and it must be due to this and the fact that I've used Betdaq wherever possible, that I've managed to avoid the dreaded Betfair Premium tax. Over the last couple of weeks I've dipped my toes into practically everything with Test Match Cricket, Greyhound Racing and Poker all seeing some action but it was from following John's advice that I decided to give creating my own Bot a go by using BetBotPro.

The early signs were good - for little effort I was making £30 to £40 a day but it wasn't long before a string of events shook me out of my comfort zone. I'd made some calculations and knew the probability of incurring lengthy losing streaks but even I didn't expect to lay 4 consecutive winners at average odds of 7.40 within the first few days of trialling a recovery staking system!

It took quite a lot of stupidity for me to risk losing £800+ on the fifth selection - a dog running at Crayford! He made me sweat too as the bloody pooch led for 3 bends before eventually tailing off. William Hill Radio is a great service to catch commentary but I'm not sure if listening to the race helped on this occasion! I haven't given up on the idea of automating some of my betting but let's just say my enthusiasm has cooled for the time being :-)

Here's a full round-up of my latest results:

American Football : £22.58

Cricket: £134.99

Greyhound Racing : £137.55

Horse Racing : £77.45

Poker : £23.60

Rugby Union : £108.00

The Stanford Super Series is the only serious stuff I intend to get involved with for the rest of the month and it'll be interesting to see if England choke under the pressure. Will the huge amount of money on offer make a difference? I have a feeling it will and if I'm right expect some very volatile in-play markets.

Bet Angel For Betdaq

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 15:28:00 +0000

Excellent news - it's been released!

A big pat on the back to the guys at Bet Angel for getting this software out in remarkable time considering the position they found themselves in at the beginning of last month. I've had a quick look and on the surface things are almost identical to the Betfair version, apart from the lack of market depth on the ladder interface and the refresh rates being slightly slower. For a first release though it looks very good and I'm sure over time added functionality will be made available. Even better news is that the download is completely free so all you non Bet Angel Professional users have the opportunity to see if this type of thing can help you turn a profit.

I'm not sure how long this offer will last so make the most of it now by downloading it here.

Good luck and I'll see you at the purple place.

Over The Moon

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 08:57:00 +0000

I haven't been as happy as I was yesterday for a very, very long time.

The Doctors weren't keen on performing a cardiac catheter operation on Caden unless they really had to, so the decision was taken to try and get all the information they needed from a sedated chest echo scan. He's had these before during regular check-ups but they haven't been fully happy with the results so sending him off to sleep first seemed a good idea.

And guess what? It worked! The pictures and measurements the Doctors were able to get look to have done the job and although the next big step is to go straight to the heart repair operation the fact he doesn't have to go under general anaesthetic twice is fantastic news due to the increased risk of his other condition.

There's still a small chance that this plan could change when the results are passed over to the surgeons at Bristol's Children Hospital, but from the way the main man was talking yesterday the outlook looks good.

You can imagine the sheer relief for Nic and I. We hadn't let ourselves get sucked up in the idea that he wouldn't have to have the operation just in case we were disappointed, but as soon as the penny dropped that we'd be going home you couldn't keep the smiles off our faces!

I'd like to say a huge thank you to everyone that left good will messages following my last post - it brings a lump to my throat that people care so much and just goes to show the goodness in human nature. You guys are the best!

Many many thanks.

Mark & Nic.

A Quick Message

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 19:59:00 +0000

Thought I'd leave a short note to let those of you that read my blog regularly know that tomorrow sees my son (Caden) go into hospital for the first of his 2 heart operations. This isn't the full repair - just an exploratory mission to get a good feel for what lays ahead but I'm exceptionally anxious as he'll still need to go under general anesthetic and I don't think that mixes very well with his other condition (Long QT Syndrome).
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So I'm making my apologies now for the blog not being updated for a few days. Every bit of energy I have at the moment is concentrated on him getting better as soon as possible which I'm sure the majority of you will understand.
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All thoughts and prayers are extremely welcome and appreciated as we'd like as many people in our corner as possible.
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All the best as always,
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Mark
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In The Lab

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 16:16:00 +0000

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Since Last Post P/L: £70.37
Monthly P/L: £70.37

After all the recent events and with expected quiet periods around the corner, necessity has demanded that I start looking at additional ways of generating a profit. American Football & Horse Racing were likely candidates but my efforts so far have drawn a blank and it’s clear my strategies need to be reviewed. However, there is a glimmer of hope. Online poker is now so accessible that I’m beginning to think just maybe I can turnover a small consistent revenue stream from playing cash games.

This could be a silly idea but I’ve played the game on and off now for the last few years and I seem to be getting a little better. Maybe it’s time to make a serious effort and approach the game in the same way as my trading? With decisions needing to be made constantly I’m expecting my discipline to be severely tested but the early signs are promising and if I set aside a small starting bank then I won’t be risking the world if things go tits-up. A mate of mine recently appeared on the TV show 'How To Become A Poker Millionaire' and this got me thinking - now what did someone once tell me about big things being possible from small beginnings?

Here’s a list of my losses for the month so far :-) :

Poker : £12.24

Horse Racing : £3.55

American Football : £79.06

Wind Of Change

noreply@blogger.com (Mark Iverson) — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 23:01:00 +0000

Since Last Post P/L: £319.53

Monthly P/L: £867.85

If you want to blog interactively, open this in another window.

Unsettled Betfair customers will never have a better excuse to explore other options. The Premium Charge fiasco has rumbled on over the last week and now that the gate has been left open the question remains, "how many will walk through?" As many have said, the barriers preventing people from moving elsewhere are slowly coming down and I still can't believe that Betfair have remained silent on the issue. Heads seem firmly buried in the sand at Betfair Towers and short term thinking now seems to have clouded a once visionary company. With news circulating that Bet Angel are due to release API software for Betdaq within days, the time has come for us to join the exodus. Already websites are popping up to protest at the shoddy treatment and it should be of no surprise that the Betfair forum has gone into meltdown since the first debits were taken from qualifying accounts yesterday afternoon. The whole affair reminds me of what we often do in Wales when it comes to rugby - shoot ourselves in the foot.

So what have I been doing whilst this this has all been going on? Well, my strategy over recent days has been to do very little (apart from withdrawing another £2242 from my Betfair account) and to wait for the dust to settle. The incentive to trial systems on markets where I have little or no edge has gone, as the prospect of getting charged if I get 'lucky' doesn't appeal. However, fortunately for me, October and November are expected quiet months so I can afford to stand back and wait a while but once Betdaq becomes a real option, Betfair will become an expensive second option in my eyes. Bad feelings take a long time to dissolve.

Here's my final results for September:

Cricket

Glamorgan v Worcestershire : £378.00

American Football

San Francisco @ New Orleans : £3.52

Carolina @ Minnesota : £12.82

Arizona @ Washington : £21.46

Golf

Ryder Cup 2008 - Winner : £7.71

Horse Racing

Ascot : £20.00

In case you haven't already read them, here are a few recent stories in the media regarding the ongoing situation:

Business As Usual For Betfair Backers Hit By Charges

Betfair Provides a Lesson In Customer Alienation

Betfair Faces Criticism For Massive Rise In Charges