MEI Editor's Blog

Divide and Rule in Tahrir

2012-01-27T16:49:00.001-05:00

Today's Cairo demonstrations, multiple marches to Tahrir all aimed at protesting military rule, have apparently included both renewed instances of sexual harassment and assault, which has become all too common in Egypt, and clashes between the young revolutionaries and the Muslim Brotherhood. So far I have mostly bits and pieces from Twitter and may have the wrong impression, but if the theme of the afternoon was tension between the young revolutionaries and the Islamists, then it's a good day for SCAF. My personal sentiments lie closer to those of the revolutionaries, but the elections demonstrated that the MB represent a broad and real sector of Egyptian public opinion. "The people" who are demanding the fall of military rule are the same people who elected the Brotherhood with 47% of the seats in Parliament. Polarization between the demonstrators and the Brotherhood, unfortunately, simply entrenches the Army: in fact, it adds to the impression, which the Army loves to foster, that the Army is the only guarantee of order.

If the revolutionaries and the Islamists go to war with each other before the Islamists have actually done anything objectionable, the revolutionaries ensure their own defeat. That doesn't mean the Brotherhood wins; it means the Army wins. The revolutionaries, to be sure, believe the MB are allied with the Army. The MB may think so too. I suspect the Army sees things rather differently: its is playing its foes against each other. If that the case then the verdict for today has to be: Advantage: Army.

Via Hossam Bahgat

The National on Arabic E-Books

2012-01-27T14:22:00.000-05:00

The National looks at the emerging market for e-books in Arabic.

Some Realism on Israel and Iran

2012-01-27T12:34:00.000-05:00

I've known Barry Rubin for many years, though we don't agree that often; but when he's right, he's right: "Israel Is Not About to Attack Iran and Neither Will the United States.

At least, I hope he's right.

Three Years of Blogging

2012-01-27T09:02:00.000-05:00

Today marks the third anniversary of my very first post on this blog, January 27, 2009. That was acltually a placeholding "coming soon" announcement, and the first substantive post was the next day, January 28, a post on Hisham Melhem's coup of becoming the first Arab journalist to interview the newly-inaugurated Barack Obama.

In those three years there have been over 2600 posts. In the near future we'll be migrating the blog to a new home in the Middle East Institute's new website, but nothing else substantive will change. Thanks to all my readers for the past three years!

One of Those "Sleeping" Legislators is Blind

2012-01-26T19:59:00.001-05:00

I was one of many to post a picture of the Egyptian Parliament's first day which appeared to show two of the Salafi MPs sleeping. As Marc Lynch points out in "The Sleeping Salafi," the fellow at the lower right, Dr. Wageeh al-Sheemy, is actually blind, which explains the closed eyes. He is in fact the first blind member elected to the Egyptian Parliament. My apologies to Dr. Al-Sheemy, and congratulations to his constituents for electing him to Parliament despite a disability.

The fellow two rows back, however, is pretty clearly in dreamland:

Who's in SCAF Anyway?

2012-01-26T15:21:00.001-05:00

Yesterday's demonstrations in Tahrir Square, as has become customary, included many calls for the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) to step down. Readers of this blog will be familiar with SCAF's total lack of transparency, and its tendency to speak collectively, except on the still-rare occasions when Field Marshal Tantawi himself makes a public address. Sometimes SCAF seems to contradict itself. At one point in December it issued three communiques in a row (I think an unprecedented frequency); the first was hardline, the second conciliatory, the third hardline again — in three days. Is its counsel divided? Who knows, since no one knows how it takes decisions?

But there's another issue lurking here that only rarely gets addressed. There is considerable confusion about its exact membership. It consists of the General Staff, the Defense Minister and his Deputy Ministers, the Commanders of the Military Districts, and at least some Deputy Commanders and Assistant Ministers, but the exact tally is a bit vague. Oh, there are lists, even official lists, but they don't always agree, not only on the exact names, but on the whole number of members.

Wikipedia, for example, says there are 20 member s , citing as its source a State Information Service site which, however, as recently as December, said there were 18. (Archived copy: the SIS site is being updated.) One enterprising website has surveyed the various lists, comparing names, and has come up with lists ranging generally between 15 and 20. but with a total of 22 distinct names. Most lists tend towards either 18 or 20 names, but initially only 15 were published.

What's going on here? Is the membership a state secret? If so, why did the State Information Service publish a list? And why doesn't that list agree with other lists? Has membership increased over the past year?

Some of this may come from confusing reports that cite any senior general who speaks publicly as a a member of SCAF, often incorrectly. In December there were two flaps when a retired general named Abdel Moneim Kato made two successive controversial statements, in the first of which he said the protesters deserved to be "burned in Hitler's ovens" and in the second, he claimed that "international law" gave the Army the right to use live ammunition to fire on civilians. (Since SCAF has always denied live ammunition was used, it promptly distanced itself from Kato.), But a great many overseas reports, and one or two Egyptian ones, quoted KATO as a "member of SCAF," though he is a retired officer in the Morale (!!) Department, and all the members of SCAF are active duty. His proper title seems to have been an "Adviser to SCAF," and such confusion may account for at least some of the uncertainty about which officers are actual members.

Obviously it is the Field Marshal and the top brass who, presumably, are calling the shots in SCAF, but the fact that nearly a year after "Communique Number One," the precise names and even precise number of the members of Egypt's executive authority is still a little gray around the edges is indicative of the remarkably opaque methods of SCAF.

Ayatollah Jannati Jokes

2012-01-26T11:08:00.000-05:00

Just to lighten things a bit, a RFE/RL piece about the popularity of Iranian jokes about Ayatollah Jannati's age.

As Others See it Today

2012-01-25T15:56:00.002-05:00

I've already posted some of my own reflections on today's anniversary, but others have many interesting perspectives to offer as well. This is just a selection of some of the English-language commentary, and only includes those not behind paywalls; even so, I may have more links and more comments of my own later.

Issandr El Amrani, The Arabist, "The Arab Spring, US Foreign Policy, the Status-Quo Lobby and the Dream Palace of the Zionists."

Marc Lynch offers links to Foreign Policy's coverage and a variety of articles.

Zeinobia live-blogs the day in Tahrir with pictures and commentary.

Another live blog and photo gallery from Ahram Online.

Khaled Fahmy, Egypt Independent: "The Army and the People are Not One."

Mohamed Elmeshad, Egypt Independent: "A Reporter's Look Back: The Three Wise Men of January 25."

Larbi Sadiki, Al Jazeera English, "January 25 and the 'Republic' of Tahrir Square."

Joseph Fahim, Daily News Egypt, "Egyptian Culture: Year Zero" on the cultural side of the revolution.

Sarah Carr, "Revolutions." (Posted a few days ago, but her reflections on the anniversary.)

Sorry, Full: Tahrir Today

2012-01-25T13:27:00.000-05:00

Turnout in Tahrir Square for the first anniversary has been huge and, so far (it's evening now), peaceful. The various competing narratives about the day do not appear to have produced any major clashes.

Not only has Tahrir itself been full to capacity, but the second photo shows the crowd on Qasr al-Nil bridge leading to it.

"Bliss Was it in That Dawn ...": From Revolutionary Enthusiasm to ... What?

2012-01-25T10:23:00.001-05:00

Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive,
But to be young was very heaven!--Oh! times,
In which the meagre, stale, forbidding ways
Of custom, law, and statute, took at once
The attraction of a country in romance!

Wordsworth on the French Revolution

Wordsworth captures the enthusiasm of the initial revolutionary fervor of the French Revolution, even among some Englishmen. But that Revolution evolved into the Terror and the guillotine, the Directory and Bonaparte. On the first anniversary of the Egyptian uprising, many of the revolutionaries are disillusioned (though not all), and many Westerners who initially applauded Arab spring are disturbed and apprehensive by an elective Egyptian Parliament in which the Muslim Brotherhood and the even more conservative Salafi Al-Nour Party hold 70% of the seats. The Army and the Islamists have declared today to be a day of celebration of the Revolution (as if it is something that occurred, and is completed); the young revolutionaries have declared it a day of protest, to fulfill and complete an unfinished revolution. We'll see how the day turns out.

Certainly democracy is messy, and the elections, though they went fairly predictably, did not produce the sort of revolutionary change the young idealists dreamt of. Many in the West see the results as dismal: bad for the US, bad for Israel, and yearn for the certitudes of the Mubarak years.

Later today I'll be doing a roundup of opinion pieces on the revolution's anniversary, but I think a responsible historical view would be that a revolutionary movement is a process, and we cannot control its direction; on the other hand, an elected Parliament is something new, and provides a counterpoint to the military council; this will be a year of bartering and maneuver over a new constitution, and a new President. Meanwhile the young revolutionaries are still there, and the masses of ordinary Egyptians, though perhaps most interested in stability, will also hold the new government to account, as they ultimately, after 30 years, did the old one. If the Islamist fail to make life better, they may find their majority in trouble. To those who fear they will seize power and hold it, that this election will have been, "one man, one vote, one time," I would say that 1) there is no evidence of that, and 2) I think that underestimates just how much Egypt changed a year ago. Once people know they can bring about revolutionary change, they will have the option of doing it again if the new system fails.

I am not totally complacent about Egypt's prospects, but I'm not going to view with alarm until we have some kind of evidence that the worst scenarios are transpiring The West didn't make this revolution, and it's not ours to shape. Tahiyya Misr.

Janjuary 25, 2011: One Year Ago Today

2012-01-25T08:33:00.000-05:00

Everybody in Egypt loves January 25 now. SCAF, the revolutionaries, even the Islamists who sat it out the first time. It's the likeliest date to be celebrated as a new national day, regardless of whose narrative of the revolution comes out on top. One year ago today, I started the day's posting with the following:

Today is Egyptian Police Day, anniversary of a great nationalist moment in 1952 when the police attacked the British, but today too often a moment to glorify centralized authority. Here's my post from last year, but this year this is going to be a day of rage Tunisian style, if the protesters have their way. Let's see what happens.

By later that day I was starting to notice that something, indeed, was going on:

Based on video reports, Facebook, Twitter, etc. the demonstrators seem to have succeeded in makiNG their presence felt, and have occupied Tahrir Square (the central one downtown, shown above at dusk today) and are planning an all-night sit-in. Big turnouts were reported from Alexandria as well.

Note that back then I felt obliged to explain what Tahrir Square was.

Extensive presence of Central Security Forces means the government was able to control and channel the demonstrations to some extent, but they don't seem to have deterred them as has often happened in the past. Perhaps Tunisia really has given people a new determination. By all reports the demonstrators were peaceful and didn't loot or attack private vehicles. The police were not as gentle. This does seem to have been one of the most successful and impressive turnouts for a demonstration; too often in the past groups mustered tens of thousands of supporters on Facebook, but only a few dozen would show up in the street. This seems different.

The real question is whether everything returns to normal tomorrow. The difference in Tunisia was the crowds kept growing and people got angrier and angrier. But the Egyptian government has always allowed an opposition press as an outlet for releasing pressure; Tunisia was far more absolutist in its control. So I'd be surprised to see a replication of the Tunisian results in Egypt. Of course, I was surprised to see them in Tunis, too.

By the violent upheavals of January 28, three days later, we all were realizing something had changed.

I will certainly have more reflections as the day goes on, but wanted to begin with a reminder of how it looked, from a distance, a year ago.

SCAF to Lift Emergency Tomorrow . . . Mostly

2012-01-24T11:35:00.001-05:00

Field Marshal Tantawi has announced that Egypt's SCAF will lift the State of Emergency tomorrow on the first anniversary of the outbreak of protests that brought down Husni Mubarak. Or rather, will mostly lift it. It will still apply in cases of "thuggery" (حالات جرائم البلطجة). What does that mean? Unfortunately, I fear the answer is "whatever we want it to mean," but given the fact that one of the first demands of the demonstrators was lifting the Emergency and that after the Revolution SCAF actually expanded its scope, any lifting of it is presumably a good thing. It's the latest step in a struggle between the Army and the Islamists on the one hand and the revolutionary movement on the other on who gets to define the January 25 anniversary; the Army wants to brand any protests tomorrow as counter-revolutionary, since it claims it will be celebrating the revolution. (Re: "thuggery," on the word baltagiyya, see here.)

The Emergency has allowed arbitrary arrests and detentions, trial of civilians in military courts, and many other abuses targeted by the protesters. What's more, it has been in place, with one brief interlude, for nearly 45 years. Originally imposed in 1967 after the War with Israel, it was lifted for a bit over a year in 1980 by Anwar Sadat after the peace with Israel, though no great outburst of liberal reform took place. When Sadat was assassinated in October 1981, it was reimposed and has been in effect ever since; it's more or less been a permanent "Emergency." In 2010 Mubarak relaxed it, claiming to limit it to cases of narcotics and terrorism only, but last year SCAF broadened it again. The "thuggery" exception almost certainly means SCAF will still be able to arrest demonstrators more or less arbitrarily, but I'm willing to be pleasantly surprised to learn otherwise.

Who Says Islamists Aren't Like Other Legislators?

2012-01-23T15:36:00.000-05:00

To be fair, the last I heard the opening session of Egypt's Parliament was at nine and a half hours and still droning on, and posters on Twitter were joking it was sponsored by Red Bull, but maybe not:

Sheikh Saud al-Nasser Al Sabah, Former Ambassador to US, Dies

2012-01-23T12:33:00.000-05:00

Sheikh Saud al-Nasser Al-Sabah, who served as Kuwait's Ambassador to Washington during the 1980s and through the Iraqi invasion and occupation, and later as Information Minister and Oil Minister, has died at age 68, reportedly of cancer. Sheikh Saud al-Nasser was a well-known figure in Washington in those difficult days for Kuwait, now over two decades ago. I mention his passing mainly for those who, like me, remember those days, and Sheikh Saud's role in them, well.

Is a New Explosion Coming in Bahrain?

2012-01-23T12:19:00.000-05:00

I haven't talked about Bahrain lately, since the tensions there have remained persistent but somewhat under most people's radar. Yet over the past few weeks tensions have continued to rise, and February 14 will mark the anniversary of the outbreak of the protests. Since the regime narrative is also to blame everything on Iran, the overall escalation of tensions across the Gulf may also add to the pressures. But February (and March, the anniversary of the Saudi/GCC intervention) could be tense.

For All its Flaws, a Landmark Parliament Convenes Today

2012-01-23T09:02:00.002-05:00

The new Egyptian People's Assembly will convene today on procedural business, only two days before the first anniversary of the date that has come to mark the onset of the Revolution. The January 25 revolution may be turning out quite differently than the young revolutionaries envisioned, with the Muslim Brotherhood in first place (which is not so surprising) and the Salafis in second (which surprised many, not least the Brotherhood itself). SCAF is still calling the shots, and the new Parliament's powers are far from clearly defined. And yet, this is a landmark parliament.

It has been six decades since the military coup of 1952 toppled the monarchy in Egypt, elections have been constrained by the overwhelming dominance of the ruling party. Until the Sadat era there were no opposition parties at all; since the 1970s opposition parties have existed, but only those approved by a committee dominated by the ruling party. While there were occasional moments of liberalization (the 1980s for example), when the opposition won a fair number of seats, they never held enough to block a constitutional amendment, which meant the ruling party could change the rules at will, and frequently did, rejigging the electoral system, limiting who could run, etc. The vote counts were generally rigged as well, but even if they weren't the system was so weighted toward the ruling party they would have won anyway.

There were voting irregularities and imperfections this time as well, but they do not seem to have systematically favored one party. These elections were the most open, free and fair since the 1952 coup, and this Parliament will be something new and different. (Before 1952 women could not vote and there were other inequities such as the ability of large landowners to control the votes of local farmers, and the Parliament was limited — as this one may be by SCAF — by the power of the Palace and the British.) It may not be the Parliament I would have elected, but I'm not Egyptian, and whatever else it may be, it is a Parliament elected by Egyptians. Ex Africa semper aliquid novum.

Some Useful Reads

2012-01-20T15:59:00.000-05:00

A few useful reads. I'm working on longer posts of my own but here are some items of note from the past few days.

Issandr El Amrani quotes Jimmy Carter on how Field Marshal Tantawi is still in denial about the "blue bra woman incident." The revolutionaries keep labeling the military Kazibun, "liars." But if they're trying to peddle this line even to Carter, it raises the possibility that they are so out of touch they really believe it themselves.

Kenneth Pollack at The New Republic asks "Are We Heading for War with Iran?" Of the dozens of articles out there on both sides of the argument, this one caught my attention because Ken was a major supporter of the war in Iraq, before the fact, but he's clearly not on board on this one.

Marc Lynch on "Yemen's Stalemate."

The Problem of Modern Archives in Egypt

2012-01-20T13:45:00.000-05:00

Hussein Omar, in a guest post at Arabic Literature (in English) addresses the question of "Who Should Save Egypt's Archives?" It's not, as you might guess, another piece about the Institut d'Egypte fire, but about the question of preserving the archives of Egypt;s modern literature and history, which aren't well served by the existing National Archives and Dar al-Kutub. A useful read for students of literature and modern history.

Ambassador Patterson Meets the General Guide

2012-01-19T17:11:00.001-05:00

Photo from ikhwanweb.com

For the first time, a US Ambassador has met officially with the General Guide of the Muslim Brotherhood. US Ambassador to Egypt Anne Patterson met with General Guide Muhammad Badie.

In fact, Badie has already met with Deputy Secretary of State Bill Burns, so the meeting is not that surprising. He has also met recently with Senator John Kerry and former President Jimmy Carter.

Lincoln Battle Group Joins Vinson Near the Gulf as Threats and Brinksmanship Continue

2012-01-19T16:15:00.000-05:00

I already reminded readers a couple of weeks ago of the sort of tragedy that brinksmanship in the Strait of Hormuz can lead to. But with Parliamentary elections due March 2 in Iran and the US in the midst of a Presidential campaign, and the Israeli government (though decidedly not the Israeli military and intelligence communities) talking tougher and tougher, the situation is increasingly one of those that could spin out of control beyond the control of either side, a powder keg waiting for a stray spark.

When the John Stennis carrier group left the Gulf at the end of the year after conducting the last combat aviation missions over Iraq, Iran warned the US against sending another carrier. That was, of course, a non-starter; the Carl Vinson, though apparently it is still outside the Straits, quickly replaced the Stennis. Now it has been announced that the Abraham Lincoln is also moving to the Gulf Area of Operations.

Iranian Frigate Sahand Burning, 1988 (Wikimedia Commons)

During the Iraq War, the US usually kept two carriers in the area, but the dispatch of the second carrier is a potent reminder that the Iranian threats (made but then backed off from) to close the Strait, but it does raise the level of tension though, frankly, it seems a measured response to an overt threat. Just as I previously hoped the US would bear in mind the lessons of Iran Air flight 655 in 1988, I would also hope the cooler heads in Iran will keep in mind the results of the US Operation Praying Mantis the same year,

In that action, in response to a US frigate striking a mine, the US struck two Iranian oil platforms, sank an Iranian frigate and several smaller craft and damaged a second frigate. It is said to have been the US Navy's biggest surface engagement since World War II, and the first time US Naval surface units used ship-to-ship missiles in combat. The US is no paper tiger, and while Iran has a Navy much rebuilt and armed with modern missiles since 1988, the Vinson and Lincoln battle groups can defend themselves, too. That just adds to the powder keg, though, and while I personally doubt that Iran really wants a shootout with the US Navy, or that the US Administration is as eager as some in the commentariat to light the spark. I just hope everyone remembers that playing with fire around a gas pump can be risky.

Where's Waldo?

2012-01-19T12:51:00.000-05:00

See if you can spot the woman in the new Moroccan Cabinet:

Yes, she's really in there. Second row, far right, behind all the suits.

Juan Cole on "God's Way of Teaching Americans Geography"

2012-01-19T12:29:00.001-05:00

Citing Ambrose Bierce's quip that "War is God's way of teaching Americans geography," Juan Cole notes that a majority of Americans, despite the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the confrontation with Iran, still can't locate those countries on a map:

And he has a modest proposal:

I suggest a new regulation on war. If a majority of your country cannot find the enemy country on the map, they aren’t interested enough to justify making war against it.

Yet Another Minority, the Shabak, are Targeted in Iraq

2012-01-18T15:19:00.001-05:00

The latest car bombing in Iraq,in a displaced persons camp in a town near Mosul, has apparently targeted the minority Shabak community, killing at least 11.

While the violence in Iraq most often is sectarian between Sunni and Shi‘a, it is also frequently directed against non-Muslim minority populations. The frequent attacks on Iraqi Christians, mostly Assyrians and Chaldeans, are well known and have led to a growing flight of Christians to Assyrian and Chaldean diasporas in the West. There have also been attacks against the Mandaean and Yazidi religious minorities.

The Shabak are another one of Iraq's minor religious/ethnic minorities, with some similarities to and affinities with the larger Yazidi community, who live in the same general region. (Note: the link is to the Wikipedia article and Wikipedia is dark today in a protest action. You can access the link by turning off Javascript in your browser, or can wait until tomorrow if you don't know how.)

They are, like the Yazidis, a syncretistic religion with elements of Islam, Christianity, and older faiths. They speak a form of Kurdish, but their scripture is written in Turkmen.

These tiny, relic communities may seem like anachronistic curiosities, but they are a reminder of the palimpsest of migrations, conquests, and faiths that swept over the Fertile Crescent over the millennia. And they have few defenders. At least international Christian groups regularly protest attacks on Iraqi Christians, though with little result since the attackers are radical Islamists. Even the Mandaeans and the Yazidis have some support from diaspora populations in Europe. Most people have never heard of the Shabak. Nor do I expect this to be on the evening news. That's why I brought it up.

New MEI Website is Live

2012-01-18T12:30:00.000-05:00

MEI's newly revamped website is now live; please check it out. It's the same address so your bookmarks should still work. It may be a little harder to find the link to my blog, but the old page was too cluttered: it's down under "Middle East Journal." Or just bookmark the blog, too.

Revolutionary Rhetoric Enters Young People's Flirting Jargon

2012-01-18T11:52:00.000-05:00

Al-Arabiya English has an amusing post about how the rhetoric of the revolution in Egypt has entered the banter of the young, especially when flirting, including "The People demand your phone number," and "The People demand a date with you," It's perfectly in keeping with the Egyptian sense of humor, but it's also something I hadn't seen mentioned before.