Coming home from a Washington Nationals game last week, a league mate and I got on the topic of Atlanta Braves OF Jason Heyward. This league mate drafted Heyward in our keeper league during a minor league draft before Heyward made his major league debut and has held on to him like a bride is counseled to hold on to her groom – for better or worse, for rich or poor, in sickness and health.

Now, if you happen to read any fantasy advice online, you know that Heyward’s stock in single season league’s has been depressed since his mediocre season last year and most analysts suggest Heyward to be what they call a “buy low” candidate. While I am not really a Heyward supporter or detractor, I was curios to see what this league mate felt about Heyward given everything he has gone through with him. And unless you understand the dynamics of our league, you would’ve thought his answer was coming straight from the 2011 preseason.

Read any fantasy baseball article on any fantasy baseball website today and the words sleeper, bust, buy low and sell high litter the writing – they are the current buzzwords of the industry. Problem is, there are so many people writing so many things about fantasy baseball today, these words have essentially lost all meaning (at least in keeper leagues).

As I look over the last four years in my keeper league, the guys I’ve been able to “buy low” on, really haven’t turned been the deals I thought they’d be. I turned minor league draft picks into Dexter Fowler and Justin Morneau last season, and while both continue to tease us with what they are capable of, neither has been consistent enough to become top tier keepers.

And forgot about selling those players having a good season – even if you can get one of the owners in my league to consider taking that player in deal, you’d be lucky to get them to pay for what the player is actually worth, let alone what their perceived value should be given their current stats.

Of course, my bitterness at these concepts could come from the fact that I play in a mixed league with decent depth and solid managers, none of which seem to follow the conventional wisdom of the many fantasy baseball analysts out there. So, before I go any further about how the concepts of sleepers, buying low and selling high are bogus, I want to turn the floor over to you by asking if you are still able to execute trades in your keeper league where you can either buy low or sell high. Share your trading stories and experiences in the comments section below.

As a lifelong Padres fan, this year is one that really tests how much of a fan you are. And it isn’t as much about the losses that are piling up as it is about the fact that there’s not much on this team to cheer for.

For all the great minor league talent San Diego has acquired recently, I’ve found that at the major league level the only hitter I actually look forward to watching is 1B Yonder Alonso. I had the opportunity to check out Alonso when the Padres were in D.C. to play the Nationals this week, and here are my thoughts on him as they relate to keeper leagues.

The first thing I noticed watching Alonso play Monday night and Tuesday afternoon is that he has a smooth swing. It doesn’t generate a ton of loft but it looks easy and I finally understand why many scouts feel Alonso is a good fit for San Diego. Even though I saw him playing in Nationals Park, there was enough room in that OF that line drives escaped to the gaps, and showed why Alonso already has 12 doubles this season. Obviously you don’t want to make any finite judgements on a handful of ABs, but there’s something about seeing a person live that just doesn’t translate to highlight or live TV, and with Alonso, I could just see that there’s something there.

Talking to a league mate after yesterday’s game, I feel that his comparison of Alonso to John Olerud is spot on – Alonso may never hit more than 20-25 HR in a season, but his line drive approach should help him consistently hit around .300 with 35+ doubles every year. Of course, those stats won’t make Alonso the prototypical 1B for fantasy purposes but as a UT or CI guy, he will be the type of player that can allow you to roster a poor BA/high K guy like Adam Dunn or Carlos Pena.

If Alonso can reach that ceiling, it should make him an attractive keeper option in leagues with 7+ keepers or in leagues that count OBP. He has posted around a 10% BB% in his time in the majors and this year has a K% less than 17%, showing solid strike zone judgement. These skills will make Alonso a solid contributor year in and year out, even if he may never rank as a Top 10 fantasy 1B.

This may not be a skill set that makes you sit up and drool but it is one that should be effective and keep the blood pressure down as Alonso should avoid severe swings in his stats.

If you find yourself looking for a safe option at 1B, don’t overlook the only interesting offensive player in San Diego. I mean someone has to knock in runs down there right?

A third round draft pick in 2007, Kansas City Royals LHP Danny Duffy was the first of a wave of promising young arms to flood the Royals farm system with major league caliber talent. At age 20, Duffy represented the Royals in the MLB Futures Game and the following spring, he earned an invitation to Spring Training.

All that promise almost slipped through the Royals fingers though as Duffy decided during the spring that he wanted to retire from baseball to reexamine his priorities.

Fortunately for the Royals, Duffy decided in June that he wanted to return to baseball and despite missing the first few months of the minor league season, he showed he still had that power arm the Royals coveted, hitting 95-97 mph consistently through the rest of the season. Despite the layoff, Duffy proved he was still one of the top arms in the system.

Heading into 2011, Duffy wasn’t even the highest ranked LHP in his own organization though. In a system as deep as Kansas City’s was in 2011, Duffy entered the year overshadowed by John Lamb and Mike Montgomery, while Chris Dwyer, also a lefty, was ranked close behind him.

All four LHP’s spent the final games of 2010 in Double A, but it was Montgomery who had spent the most time at that level and appeared to be first in line to get a shot at the first avalable spot in the major league rotation. Montgomery got off to a poor start in 2011 however (which he never recovered from), and Lamb ended up needing Tommy John Surgery early leaving Duffy as the first option for an early season promotion.

Duffy’s major league debut was anything but dominating, as he finished with a 4-8 record while compiling a 5.64 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and giving up 15 HR in 105 1/3 IP. A 4.4 BB/9 and 5 hit batsmen showed just how much Duffy struggled with his command in 2011, but a 7.4 K/9 and a .329 BABIP showed all hope wasn’t lost.

Duffy has looked like a different pitcher in 2012, and it starts with the jump in his average fastball velocity. After sitting in the 93 MPH range last season, Duffy has improved that number to the 97 MPH he flashed when he returned from his retirement in 2010. That spike has helped Duffy post a K/9 over 10 (which is similar to his MiLB numbers) and improve his K/BB over 2. An improvement in his BABIP (down to .315) and his HR/9 (0.8) have helped him start the season off 2-2 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP.

Duffy still has some growth to undergo and his numbers this year are being helped by a favorable left on base percentage and that low HR/9, but 97 MPH throwing lefties are the mythical unicorns of baseball and given his track record, Duffy is making a strong case for owners to invest in him now. And since he should be relatively cheap to acquire given his lack of track record to this point, he is the perfect target for owners rebuilding their franchises to take a flier on.

His path to the big leagues may have been more unusual than the road others have taken, but his talent and passion seem to have him on the path to fantasy stardom.

The violent swing.

The mullet mohawk hairdo.

The cannon arm in the outfield.

The gallons of eye black.

The steal of home after a division rival purposefully plunked him.

At only 19-years-old and with only a handful of games at the major league level, phenom Bryce Harper is doing everything he can to live up to the expectations that have been placed on him since he appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated while still in high school.

I’ve personally had the opportunity to see Harper play at three different levels over the past year, and every time I’ve walked away more impressed with him than the previous time I saw him. And while it would be easy to call him overrated, those who are doing so haven’t seen Harper enough.

My first chance to see Harper play came last summer when the Harrisburg Senators (Washington’s Double A affiliate) visited the Bowie Baysox (Baltimore). Harper had just been promoted to Double A and had been struggling to hit. However, upon seeing Harper in person the first thing that stood out to me is that while watching him swing the bat makes your arms hurt from sympathy pain, he is still a disciplined hitter that will take what the other team gives him. A low BABIP suppressed his overall numbers but a BB% over 10% and a K% under 18% showed Harper knew what he was doing.

The second time I saw Harper was in the Arizona Fall League, and again, from AB to AB it was obvious that Harper was taking what the opposing pitcher was giving him and adjusting accordingly. After struggling to connect in his first AB in the first AFL game I saw him in, Harper toyed with the pitcher by trying to lay down a bunt (unsuccessfully) before connecting on a moon shot to straightaway center a few pitches later. Obviously, Harper’s first motive was to get on base, followed by crushing any mistakes made his way.

Oddly enough, Harper tried this same tactic in his D.C. debut on Tuesday. With a home crowd cheering for every little thing he did, Harper tried to make up for a K in his first AB by trying to lay down a surprise bunt on the first pitch in his second AB. Unfortunately he fowled that off and failed to reach base, but once again Harper showed that at 19, he is mature enough to know that winning is more important than individual accolades, and that he has the talent to make a difference.

Even though his promotion was questioned due to his slow start at Triple A this season, Harper is showing everyone why he almost made the team out of Spring Training. And now that Jayson Werth is out indefinitely, Harper’s place is probably secure for the time being.

Harper has been owned in most keeper leagues for years now but if the opportunity to acquire him arises, don’t pass it up. While conservative expectations had Harper not being much of a fantasy contributor for the next couple of years, he once again seems determined to defy the odds.

Harper is already one of the most exciting players to watch in baseball and as he gains experience, his legend will only continue to grow. Tell me, how many other players have exacted revenge on a pitcher that plunked them by stealing home later in the same inning?

It’s time to sit back and enjoy the legend that is Bryce Harper.

I caught Bryce Harper‘s Nationals debut on Tuesday and plan to post about his performance and the game but I traveled across the country yesterday and it has put me behind schedule. I plan on posting my thoughts on Harper tonight. In the meantime, if you have any questions or comments, please share in the comments below.

One thing I get asked to do a lot of is to evaluate various trade offers. Many owners come to me looking for a second opinion on whether a deal is fair and I am happy to give my opinion because I have done the same thing with my friends over the years. Sometimes pulling the trigger on a deal is so much easier when you have that second opinion.

Where things get tough though, is when an owner asks me to compose a counter offer if I don’t like the deal he e-mails me.

The one thing that makes composing counter offers (especially in a vacuum) tricky is that even with complete rosters, as an outsider I have no idea how that other owner values certain players, which is the entire reason a trade happens.

In my main keeper league, we recently had an owner trade Joe Mauer for Yankee minor leaguers Mason Williams and Jose Campos. Now, regardless of what you think of the trade, there is a reason why it was made – the guy selling Mauer is a huge Yankees fan and he believes Williams and Campos will provide his rebuilding squad with more value from this point forward than Mauer.  And even though the odds don’t seem to be in favor of that right now, it’s not necessarily out of the realm of possibility either.

Even if Mauer’s owner had given me a list of only Williams and Campos, there is no way I would’ve combined those two together and thought it would’ve been enough to acquire Mauer. And in 99.9% of leagues, a negotiation starting at that point probably doesn’t go very far. The other twist to this deal is I know Mauer’s owner was offered deals I personally thought were better in value.

And therein lies the problem with outside trade advice – no one knows your league like the members of your league.

So, if outside help ends up being of no help in your trade negotiations, what can you do to craft a solid counter that doesn’t require hours of back-and-forth e-mailing?

Simple, ask your trade partner what players he has actual interest in.

Now, this isn’t just shooting off an e-mail saying, “I’m interested in player X, what would it take for you to trade him to me?” That will only turn the other owner off because you are blatantly passing the work over to him. However, if you were to approach him with an offer and he turns it down, ask him to name the players on your team he is interested in, and have him rank them from No. 1 to however many he names.

Through this tactic I was able to turn a trade discussion centered on Heath Bell and Matt LaPorta into a deal where I ended up with Justin Upton and Bell. I had no idea how much the other owner liked Buster Posey and when he shared that info, I was able to expand our talks and come up with a deal both of us liked.

Now, this post isn’t a longwinded way of saying that I don’t want to help you in your trade negotiations because I truly do want to. I’m just offering up a different way that may make those negotiations easier and give you less of a headache in the process.

One of the most frustrating things about fantasy baseball can be making trades so why not try to make it less painful next time?

That’s one trick that has worked for me. What has worked for you when talking trade with another owner in your league? Let us know in the comments section.

This is the Nolan Reimold fantasy/keeper owners and Orioles fans have been waiting for.

After a debut that saw him hit .279/.365/.466 with 15 HR in 358 AB in 2009, Reimold has disappointed fantasy players to the point he became irrelevant, going undrafted in almost all types of fantasy leagues the last two seasons.

But in 46 AB to start off 2012, Reimold has already amassed 5 HR (1/3 of his career high), with a .370/.383/.783 slash line. Obviously the average will fall, especially if his 11-1 K/BB ratio is any indicator. Also, given a BABIP around .400 and a HR/FB% of 42%, the HR rate will slow down as well. Now, that doesn’t mean he won’t hit more than 15, it just means his final total won’t match his current pace. Given full time ABs, Reimold will be a sleeper source for power.

Now that he’s living up to the promise he showed during his rookie year, the question moves from how long will he keep this up to will Reimold be worthy of keeping past this season. Historically speaking, Reimold’s skills have always hinted at a possible breakout but health and prolonged slumps have always gotten in the way.

As of right now, those who are rebuilding should grab Reimold as his imminent breakout is just the type of upside an owner looking towards the future wants to latch on to. For those competing in 2012, it probably isn’t a bad idea to grab him now and see how he holds up during the season. At worst, you could trade him to that rebuilding owner in your league for the player you need to win your league championship.

I’m still hesitant to go in all Reimold and expect the production he’s teasing us with currently. I am however, in favor of taking a gamble on his skills. And if he proves to be an April mirage? At least you got a couple of solid games from him before he turned back into the player we’ve come to expect – one that isn’t relevant in most fantasy league formats.

It seems that over the last couple of weeks the Internet has been littered with advice on exercising patience with your roster in April. Since I’ve already taken my turn beating that topic into the ground, I thought I’d find something more fun to talk about.

Like I said last week, it’s too early to let stats get to you. However, that doesn’t mean you have to ignore the stats entirely. In fact, my post today is going to look at some of the more interesting things April has offered my squad so far.

• The most HR anyone on my team has hit so far this season is 4. The three players on my squad to reach that mark – Andre Ethier, Justin Morneau and Omar Infante (?)
• According to Yahoo, my team had the most HR in my league for Week 2 with 13.
• Infante also has the highest BA (.333). He has averaged 10 HR and a .276 BA over his 11-year career.
• Ethier leads my team with 18 RBI. No one else has more than 9.
• The lowest BA on my team – Ryan Raburn (.081). Interestingly enough, he doesn’t have the lowest OBP though (my league uses OBP instead of R), that distinction belongs to Jose Tabata, whose BA is 30 points higher.
• With a staff that includes Zack Greinke, Matt Garza, James Shields and Johnny Cueto – my most valuable starter so far is Danny Duffy.
• Yes, I owned Mark Melancon and yes, his damage to my roster is his entire 49.50 ERA and 6.00 WHIP. At least I got the 1 K.
• Yes, it’s ok to drop Melancon at this point.
• Finally, despite all the fantasy advice about sitting tight in April, one team in my league has already made 23 roster moves this season. Not surprisingly (at least to me), he currently sits in 9th.

If you want to see just how crazy April can be, take a look at who leads your team in each category. Chances are many of your current category leaders won’t be at the top once September rolls around.

Does anyone else have interesting category leaders on their teams? Share them either in the comments or on our Facebook page.

An after-thought in most leagues heading into the season, one of the hottest players in 2012 so far is Minnesota OF Josh Willingham. One of those players who always seems to be available in the free agent pool, Willingham has posted a .389/.476/.778 line to start the season, while posting 8 R, 4 HR, 8 RBI and 1 SB – good enough to land him as the 5th best player on ESPN’s Player Rater.

Obviously small season caveats are abundant at this point, but with such a strong start the question that pops up is, will Willingham be keeper worthy for 2013?

Willingham’s skills are a mixed bag at this point – obviously his obscene .435 BABIP is the reason he’s hitting .389 but his 9.5% BB% is more than 1% lower than his career norm and his 25% K% is right in line with his career numbers. While these stats suggest he will slow down somewhat, there are a couple of major red flags sending off warning signs as well. Willingham currently has a GB% of 48%, over 10% more than any percentage he’s posted since 2007. And despite the huge increase in GB%, Willingham has 4 HR in 42 PA, thanks to an unsustainable 44% HR/FB%.

Willingham posted a career-best 29 HR and 98 RBI while playing for Oakland last season, but with three other seasons of 20+ HR, he should continue to be a decent source of power. Given the dramatic drop off in offense across the majors the last couple of years, those numbers are definitely roster worthy.

But are those numbers keeper worthy? In most leagues they aren’t. But if Willingham builds on his success from last season, would he earn a spot as a keeper in deeper leagues?

At this point I’m going to chalk up Willingham’s success to his tremendous good luck. But if his stats keep pace once his skills level out, Willingham could become a cheap keeper target in many league formats.

As we search for the next Jose Bautista while trying to keep the numbers in perspective, sometimes we run into the Willingham’s of the majors – players whose current skills don’t quite support the current level of production, but they do support the possibility of improved production. So for now, I’m going to say Willingham still isn’t keeper material but he could easily change all of that by the end of the season.

What are your thoughts Willingham owners?

Zack Greinke gave up 8 earned runs in 3 ⅔ innings.

Your offense went a collective 3-for-30 with only 1 run scored.

Your team lost 25 ROTO points and is now sitting in your league’s basement.

April sucks.

Preseason optimism has been replaced with a hard dose of reality now that the 2012 season is finally underway.

But just because the games now count, it doesn’t mean they are meaningful … yet.

As the temptation to tinker with your team takes over now that you’re accumulating stats, the long term focus of your squad starts to get fuzzy even though it needs to be as clear as ever. And while the Internet is full of articles urging fantasy owners to exercise patience at this point of the season, it’s even more important for keeper league owners to avoid rash decisions in April, as a hasty move now might not only cost you this year, but in future ones as well.

April should be seen as an extension of spring training – players injured in March are still getting into form, the opponent’s roster is no longer littered with guys who had no chance to make the 25-man roster and pitchers are now starting to use their entire repertoire.

While the temptation is undoubtedly tough to avoid, keeper league owners should think of adopting a no-move period. For me, I don’t make any roster moves (other than replacing a player that is put on the DL) before May 1. Sure, you may miss out on the hot pickups for April but that may not be a bad thing. Does the name Chris Shelton ring a bell?

Now, this rule is not hard and fast – if an opponent wants to drop a struggling Mark Teixeira, by all means make room on the roster. However, if you find one of your sleeper picks struggling out of the gate, stay patient. There was a reason he was a sleeper after all and a couple of weeks at the beginning of the season should do nothing to dissuade you from that opinion.

Tim Lincecum’s ERA will come down from 12.91, Barry Zito will eventually give up a run and Justin Upton’s BA will rise above .133, but in April these numbers catch our eye as there are no other stats accumulated yet to soften the blow of a bad game.

Welcome back baseball – now could you please get to the point where we have enough stats to start making grounded roster decisions?