A first round pick of San Diego’s in 2007, Luebke put up solid numbers in the minors before reaching the majors in 2010. Posting 32 wins, a 3.49 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 4 minor league seasons, Luebke seemed to be a candidate for a bullpen role as his K/9 averaged only 7.5 during that same span.

But upon his arrival to the majors, Luebke increased his K/9 to 9.2 in a 17 inning September call up. Paired with a 3 K/BB (a level he maintained in the minors), the Padres gave Luebke a chance to start 2011 in the majors. Proving effective as a reliever early on, Luebke earned a rotation spot at the end of June and finished the season with 17 starts, 6 W, a 3.29 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and a K/9 of 10.

It’s uncommon for a pitcher to increase his K/9 when jumping from the minors to the majors, but Luebke’s jump is unbelievable at almost 3 K per game. Now, it’s pretty common knowledge that Petco Park can turn almost any pitcher into a staff ace but looking at Luebke’s splits from 2011, things were actually worse for him at home. I hate to split these stats given that Luebke only pitched 139 innings last year, but when you post a 4.04 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 at home compared to a 2.55 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 11.2 K/9 on the road, something has definitely changed.

Looking at projections on Fangraphs, Baseball HQ and other sites, most analysts believe Luebke will maintain most of the skills he’s shown in the majors, including his huge increase of K’s. I have no idea why they think that’s the case, other than his previous major league track record, but look for this buzz to make Luebke a trendy sleeper nominee for 2012.

Knowing that Luebke is being thrown back into the player pool for my league, I’m tempted to grab him because I believe somewhat in his 2011. However, in a 12-team keeper league with 14 keepers, I still don’t know if I’m willing to burn a keeper slot on someone who’s numbers suggest a serious downturn in his skills and stats could be coming soon.

It’s these types of decisions that plague owners all offseason, and it’s these types of decisions that can drastically impact a season. While the outward numbers seem to scream that Luebke is a #1 or #2 starter in the making, understand that it’s more likely his ceiling is that of a #3. Heading into your draft or auction with the proper long term perspective will help you avoid overpaying/reaching for Luebke, but it also means he only slides to you if your league mates see the same warning signs.

Now, there’s a good chance I may not end up with Luebke this year but if I’m able to fill more than one position with the money I save from overbidding on him, I’ll be better off anyway.

For a guy who’d hit 38+ HR 7 straight seasons, a move from a neutral ballpark to one that improved power for lefties was supposed to keep that streak intact. Instead, Adam Dunn had a season he couldn’t have imagined even in his worst nightmares.

There has to be some explanation for going from a .260/38/103 line in 2010 to .159/11/42 in 2011 but for all the factors that changed for Dunn from 2010 to 2011, even when you combine them together you can’t fully account for that large of a drop in stats.

In most cases, large drops like this often occur when a player hides playing through an injury but in this case, the only thing we know that affected Dunn last year was an April appendectomy. Surely he would’ve healed and gotten back to full strength before the end of the season right?

Some will point to the fact that Dunn was unhappy playing DH full time, while others will look at his .240 BABIP. Obviously a 43% K% is really high, even for Dunn, a .064 BA against LHP (it was an absurd .019 in 1H) certainly hurt the production and an 11% drop in HR/FB% can explain the drop in HR, but we still have no idea why all this occurred.

While it would be nice to have some sort of explanation for Dunn’s drastic drop in performance last year, the real question keeper league owners want to know the answer to is whether or not he is a keeper for 2012.

I’ve talked about Ron Shandler’s findings regarding player’s regressing to their historical levels before on this blog, even talking about Dunn in that post. While most sites and analysts feel Dunn will be closer to the player he was in 2011 as opposed to 2010 and earlier, I’m going to go against the crowd and say Dunn’s 2011 will only live on in his nightmares after 2012.

Dunn may not be the 40 HR hitter he was a few years ago but at only 32, there’s no reason to think he can’t hit 30-35 over the next couple of years. If you’re a keeper league owner looking for a cheap option at 1B that can give you a nice profit, Dunn is the guy to target. Get him now while everyone is down on him and laugh at everyone else when he looks like the Dunn of old in 2012.

And if you own Dunn, you’ve made it this far, what’s a few more months?

These rankings are based on projected cumulative value over the next 5 years.  Minor league players have been excluded.  Hitters who will qualify at 2B or SS were also excluded.  

Longoria was the easiest player to rank on this list.  His combination of youth, current production, growth potential and makeup create perhaps the best keeper player in the baseball universe.  A .300/40/120/15 season in 2012 or 2013 would not surprise me in the least.

Zimmerman is just a notch below Longoria in terms of upside, but he too combines youth, current production, growth potential and makeup.  Some have speculated that Anthony Rendon could push him off of 3B eventually, but right now Zimmerman is widely regarded as the best defensive 3B in the majors.  I don’t see that move happening any time soon.  Zimmerman has .300/35/120 upside, but the Nationals are very careful with his health and he doesn’t get the green-light on the base paths enough to be a factor in the SB department.

Sandoval’s bat is every bit as potent as Zimmerman’s, but conditioning and weight concerns could limit him to 1B at any point.  Even at 1B his bat would be a force.

Wright’s ever increasing strikeout rate is a cause for batting average concern, but he’s still a natural hitter with plus power and the ability to swipe 20+ bags.  He’s only 29 and with good health there’s no reason we couldn’t see a few more .280+/25/100/20 seasons out of him.

Lawrie’s ranking may be a bit aggressive considering the small sample of production we have at AA or above, but when you combine his pedigree with 2011’s production it’s hard not to get excited about what such a young player could potentially do for many, many seasons in a keeper league.  If not for his track record of fragility I would have likely ranked him above both Beltre and Youkilis.  A .280 20/20 season in 2012 is certainly a possibility and there is certainly potential for more as he gains experience.

Finally I’d like to highlight Headley, who has largely been forgotten in keeper leagues.  Headley was known as a patient hitter with plus power as a prospect.  Much of his power potential has been muted by Petco Park, but consider his career triple slash road splits before you completely write him off: .303/.364/.441.  Those lines looked even better in 2011 (.330/.399/.465) as he continued to reach physical maturity.  To boot Headley has developed the ability to take second base when pitchers aren’t paying attention (10+ steals the past 3 seasons).   If SD decides to make room for Jedd Gyorko by shipping Headley elsewhere, it would be a major boon to his fantasy value and Headley could find his way into the top 10 on this list.

While the impact in redraft leagues is obvious, this is the type of injury keeper owners dread as they now have to weigh VMart’s lack of 2012 value against his value for 2013 and beyond when deciding on this year’s set of keepers.

So, what should a current Martinez owner do?

Valued more for his bat than his defense behind the plate, Martinez has shifted from a 20 HR/year full-time C to a .300+ BA C/1B/DH hybrid. Either of these strengths are valuable when it comes to a C, but ever since he left Cleveland, Martinez has found himself being used more frequently as a DH, meaning his keeper value (and possibly fantasy value in general) is dropping quickly.

Martinez controls the strike zone well, as evidenced by his 8% BB% and only 9% K% last season, meaning the .300+ BA should be a regular thing but for a player that may only qualify at UT/DH by 2014, is that really a good use of a roster spot?

Having just turned 33, it’s a pretty safe bet that the days of 20 HR are not coming back. Martinez was able to save a lot of his value by driving in 102 runs but there is no guarantee he can do that again (or that his teammates will give him that many opportunities to do so).

Unfortunately, the case for keeping Martinez is pretty weak. Even those rebuilding in 2012 in hopes of making a run in 2013 can’t justify sitting on Martinez for a year.

If you are one of the unlucky VMart owners out there, my apologies. Here’s to hoping your 2012 title run isn’t now DOA because of this news.

If Martinez was guaranteed to continue to qualify at C, I would argue strongly that his owners should keep him if possible. However, coming off a serious knee injury, I find it hard to believe that the Tigers let him catch at all once he finally returns.

This list is a must-have for any keeper league owner, as it balances and accounts for both short- and long-term values of the players on the list.

The cost of the list is $5 is available to purchase through the Top 200 page. Make sure you check out the free sample of the list on the Top 200 page also.

These rankings are based on projected cumulative value over the next 5 years.  Minor league players have been excluded.  I tend to favor power and upside over the ‘won’t hurt you’ players.

Matt Wieters’ combination of youth, power, contact ability and pedigree earn him the top spot on this list.  His second half power breakout allows those of us who have been patient to breathe a sigh of relief.  Those who lost patience and cut-bait early … I’m sorry but you blew it.

Carlos Santana’s power and patient approach landed him second on the list and could propel him past Wieters if he gets some BABIP help.  If Cleveland continues to play him at 1B or DH on his off days he could post an MVP-like season at some point in the near future.

Brian McCann and Joe Mauer are the old guard of top Cs.  Both are still in their prime and a big season from either at any point wouldn’t surprise.  In terms of on-field performance there is very little risk in rostering Mauer or McCann for the next few years.

Jesus Montero may be the surprise ranking of this list since many don’t think of him as a C and in terms of real-life baseball he probably isn’t.  However, depending on your league settings he may already qualify at C for the 2012 fantasy baseball season and if not he likely will before long.  The offensive upside is similar to that of Wieters and Santana, but he will benefit from DHing most nights and thus avoid the wear-and-tear of catching on a regular basis, not to mention the mental stress …

I like Miguel Montero quite a bit and think he has the potential to out produce anyone on this list in 2012 … I wouldn’t be surprised to see Alex Avila’s BA drop below .250 in 2012, but the power and patience are real and drive his value … Mike Napoli’s production will decrease in 2012, the only question is, by how much?  He’s still a good bet to hit for power and moderate BA … Wilson Ramos has a solid set of skills to be a successful major league C for the next decade, but don’t expect more power growth until he changes his approach and starts hitting the ball in the air more often … The ballpark change won’t benefit Chris Iannetta (Coors greatly enhances LH power while Angel Stadium slightly depresses it), but a full-time gig certainly will.  Maybe he’s the 2012 version of Napoli?

Building on my previous post about player regression, here are four more candidates likely to experience some regression to their career norms (both bad and good) in 2012 and whether or not they are worth targeting for your keeper league team.

Curtis Granderson – shocked the world by hitting 41 HR in 2011 and those thinking he will repeat that performance in 2012 will be in for quite a surprise. Granderson excelled in his second season with the Yankees but many of his surface stats improved because of the opportunities he had, not necessarily because his skills are getting better.

Granderson’s power spike is mostly supported by his skills so a 30 HR season may not be out of the question, but be ready for those HR to come with a ton of strikeouts (21% K% in 2011) and a BA in the .240-.250 range.

Given the lack of overall power in the majors the last two years, Granderson is probably still worth keeping in most situations but if you can find an owner in your league willing to pay based on last year’s performance, he should be easy to part with.

Asdrubal Cabrera – will likely be one of the biggest question marks in 2012 given that he is coming off a career year and plays one of the hardest positions to fill on a fantasy roster. The 25 HR, 92 RBI and 17 SB all look attractive but Cabrera isn’t likely to repeat those numbers.

Cabrera’s HR numbers spiked thanks to an increase in FB% and an even larger increase in HR/FB% while his SB numbers were boosted by an increase in opportunities. Had he converted more than 77% of his steal attempts, Cabrera likely would’ve finished the season as a 20/20 player and would be even harder to figure out.

While SS is a tough position to fill in any format, if you decide to keep Cabrera, do so knowing he won’t reach his 2011 numbers. He may still put up decent numbers in 2012 but expect stats more along the lines of 15/10 rather than 20/20.

Evan Longoria – got off to a slow start thanks to an oblique injury at the start of the year but once he got healthy he was able to rack up 31 HR and 99 RBI in 483 AB. The biggest blemish in last year’s numbers was his .244 BA but most of that can be attributed to a BABIP in the .240s.

Hidden in the numbers is the fact that Longoria improved his K% and BB% while maintaining his power. Add in all the problems at 3B in the majors last year and there may not be a better keeper option in any league under any circumstances. If you can manage to pry him away from his owner there may be no better time, just keep talking about the .244 BA and see what happens. You’ll be glad you did.

Jayson Werth – signed one of the biggest free agent contracts before the 2011 season and followed that up as one of the biggest disappointments in the majors. I’m going to let my bias show here a little bit and say I wasn’t surprised with Werth’s collapse as I’ve never been a big believer in his skills. The biggest problem for Werth last year was not having Ryan Zimmerman‘s bat to protect him in the lineup for a long stretch last year. Being called upon to carry the Nationals offense, Werth hit only .232 (including a .184 BA against LHP) and struck out in almost 30% of his ABs.

I would expect similar results to last year’s 20 HR, 58 RBI and .232 BA in 2012 and Werth is not someone I would target if I was looking for a bounce-back candidate. Again, that may be my bias showing but seeing how much his skills declined last year, and given the fact that he will be 33 in 2012, I don’t see many reasons to expect a return to his Philly numbers.

Once again, as you set out to improve your rosters for 2012, make sure you’re looking to see whether a breakout or a letdown was a result of a player’s skills or an outcome of luck.

Have a player to nominate for Part 3 of this series? Let us know in the comments or by sending us an e-mail.

Photo by Jim Higgins

I promised that I would recap what I saw last week at the AFL, so here is Part 2 of my impressions of the AFL.

• The person who impressed me the most last week was SS Brandon Crawford of the Giants. Combine this with the rumblings that the Giants are more interested in signing a backup for him as opposed to someone to compete for the starting job and we could have the first fashionable sleeper of 2012. In two games last week, Crawford hit the ball with authority and played good enough defense that he could stick with a solid spring.
• Another SS that had a good week was Seattle’s Nick Franklin. Franklin stole the show offensively and defensively at the Rising Stars game, which he needed given the lost season he had in the minors in 2011. Seattle is obviously a team in need of offense and if Franklin can start off strong in the minors I could see him getting the call early in 2012.
• Another Mariner that impressed was Danny Hultzen. The guys I went to the Rising Stars game arrived wanting to see what Gerit Cole would do and left talking about how dominating Hultzen was. I’m not going to begin to try and estimate what Hultzen’s ceiling is, but the lefty could be another pitcher fast-tracked for the majors. He is worth keeping an eye on.
• Speaking of Cole, his start on Saturday was horrible. And while the AFL is usually rough on pitchers, it seems amplified this year given the poor defenses backing these pitchers up. The important thing for Cole is his velocity was there.
• I spent a lot this trip looking at players I can build my keeper league team with and besides Crawford and Franklin, another guy I’m keeping an eye on is Texas IF Mike Olt. The bat looks like it is pretty close to MLB ready and the power is definitely there.
• Lastly, those who have been looking at Royals OF Wil Myers should be happy with the performance he has turned in this fall, especially given his struggles during the season. Myers played a decent RF when I saw him and he seems to be regaining confidence in his bat. The trade of Melky Cabrera has to be a positive sign that the Royals want to cash in on their young talent soon and I wouldn’t be surprised if Myers gets called up about the same time Eric Hosmer did last year.

I may or may not write up one more piece on the AFL but I do feel that I’ve shared almost all of what I wanted to. If you have any further questions about any of the prospects at the AFL, let me know in the comments and I’ll be sure to respond.

Game 1: Scottsdale at Surprise

• Nothing more needs to be said concerning Bryce Harper – he hit a monster of a HR yesterday and really seems to have adjusted to the level of competition he is facing. I saw him a few months ago when he played the Bowie Baysox and he was still adjusting. He seems like a different player now.
• First impressions aren’t everything, and that’s a good thing for Mike Trout. He had 3 K’s yesterday as part of an 0-for-6 day. I have two more chances to see him so hopefully he’ll get on base.
• Pitchers have it rough – there were 3 errors in this game and 5 in the second game I saw. While there were some good defensive plays, you have to wonder if these kids are tired from all the baseball they’ve been playing all year.

Game 2: Peoria at Salt River

• I was excited for this game because it was my only chance to see Peoria, made up of players from the Padres (my favorite team). I will see the best Padres in the Rising Stars game on Saturday, but this was my shot to see the guys who won’t be in Saturday’s game.
• Keeping with the Padres, I wonder what they will do with Jaff Decker. He played DH for Peoria and that seems to be his best fit. I wondering if he will be traded at some point.
• The 5 errors in this game were all by Peoria. Their defense was terrible as they dropped balls on routine grounders and missed cutoff men on throws. Add in the fact that Seattle’s Cody Scarpetta started the game by giving up 7 ER while only recording 1 out, you have to wonder if something was going on behind the scenes.
• I’m impressed with Nolan Arenado. If he wasn’t already owned in my keeper league he would be a guy I would be targeting, especially since the Rockies need a 3B next year.
• I don’t know much about Mets 3B Jefry Marte but he is now on my radar after a 2-for-3 night with a HR and 2 RBI. Again, it was only one game (see my note on Trout above) but with 3B being so thin last year, it’s time to start looking under every rock before someone else makes a decent find.

Alright, I’m off to see more games today and will put my thoughts up tomorrow. In the meantime, if you have any players here at AFL you want more info on, let us know in either the comments section below, via Twitter or via Facebook.

These rankings are based on projected cumulative value over the next 5 years.  Minor league players have been excluded.  Players who also qualify at a more-scarce position (2B, 3B, SS, C) have also been excluded and will be ranked at that more-scarce position.

It was difficult for me not to rank Pujols No. 1 on this list.  The fact that Cabrera’s skills are improving each year and that he’s 3 years younger coupled with the decline in Pujols’ skills and overall performance was just enough to convince me that Cabrera’s cumulative value over the next 5 years will exceed that of Mr. Pujols.

I’m obviously pretty bullish on the Royals duo of Hosmer and Butler.  I really like the plate discipline and contact ability they have both displayed in their pro careers and there is untapped power in both of their bats.  The latter could be greatly enhanced by the former when they reach their respective peaks.

Belt, Freeman and Duda all ended up higher than I expected.  After the top 6 elite 1B there is a precipitous drop-off to unproven players with potential (Hosmer, Butler, Belt, Freeman, Duda, Alonso and Smoak), players whose forecasts are foggy due to significant injuries (Howard, Morneau, Davis and Morales), players with suspect skills (Morse, Lind, Pena, Goldschmidt and Dunn), and finally the two older studs who aren’t likely to be playing regularly more than another 2-3 years (Berkman and Konerko).

I have to admit that I was one of the doubters who wondered if Belt’s power breakout across three levels of the minors in 2010 was legit. While he may have struggled initially in the bigs this year, he went back to AAA, straightened out his swing (and the stuff between his ears), and then put on a power display as a part-time player over the last couple months of the season (8 HR in 130 AB).  I’m going to break from the rest of my peers and say that his power is real and I believe it will be more than the 20 HR that most pundits have projected for his prime.  I’m projecting 25-30 HR per year during his peak seasons, beginning in 2014.

Lucas Duda is probably the biggest surprise on this list.  Humor me for a minute and pretend you don’t know who I’m talking about and see if these facts impress:

• 6’ 5” 250 LBS – 26 years of age for the entire 2012 season
• Makes hard, consistent contact (typically 80% or better as a pro and confirmed in 300+ MLB at-bats during 2011).
• Solid plate discipline leading to BB rates at or above 10% in every season as a pro.
• ISO power of .295 in AAA in 2010 and 2011, with a solid .189 as a regular Major League 1B in 2011.
• Lacks elite bat-speed, but succeeds with size/strength, opp-field approach, and natural barrel-to-ball ability.

This is the profile of a somewhat late-bloomer who could hit .280/.350/.500 with 20-25 HRs for the foreseeable future.

If Morales and Morneau are healthy going forward I will have ranked them too low.  If they continue to struggle to recover from their respective ailments I will have ranked them too high.  Given what they have produced over the last season and a half (zero – zilch) I feel that these rankings are more on the bullish side with the advantage going to Morneau because of his longer, more consistent track record of production.