The pots can get large if players pay top dollar in the bidding process. The advantage is if you start off with trash, you can pass on the bidding, fold, and only lose your ante. I don’t generally recommend bluffing in this game since hands have the potential of being very strong come the showdown. It is important to pay attention to what your opponents are bidding on and know whether to get out of their way and stop them from making their hand.

There may be a time when you should outbid an opponent for a card you don’t need just to stop them from having a monster. For example, you have a strong full house–three aces and two tens, and your opponent has already bought a king and is bidding on another king. At this point you know the last king probably made him trips or a full house, which your hand trumps, but this new king would give him four-of-a-kind. This is when the game can get nasty since both you and your opponent are willing to spend a small fortune bidding on the card. There is a lot to think about, but in a different way then most poker variations, and that’s why I like bid poker.

On a micro-scale, we can deal with the easy numbers. My favorite games are single-table tournaments with the top three places paying out. (These are also known by the somewhat counter-intuitive name sit-n-goes. Once you “sit” you can’t “go” until the game is over.) The bubble here is fourth place. Out of the last ten games I’ve played I’ve been first, second, third or fourth–so the end-game strategy has been fresh on my mind. Be aware, this is on-line advice and my not apply in person.

Every time I reach the top four, everyone tightens up except for players with a significant chip lead. These players steal blinds with bets four or five times the big blind. I’ve found that when the blinds are high enough to significantly impact the smaller or mid stacks, that is overkill. The minimum raise is often enough to get the player to fold pre-flop. According to traditional advice, this is a weak play. I agree, it is weak, but if it works it works. I have been using this strategy over the last ten games and have been first or second most of them. In addition, when you do get a call, you are still seen as on the offensive for the hand. Most people will respect your post-flop bet assuming your table reputation is solid.

Disclaimer: The minimum raise has worked for me consistently, but only under specific circumstances. I’ve been min. raising (1)  online, (2) with four or less players at the table,  and (3) not in the big blind. I use the min. bet to steal the big blind, it is less likely to get anyone who has already called the big blind to fold. Also I’ve only tested this tactic with buy-ins between $10 and $30. Your mileage may very.

The first tell to which I’ve turned my attention are shaky hands. It is a common misconception that shaky hands are a sign of fear. Players do the fear math and assume Mr. Shaky has a weak hand. Therefore, any bet is a bluff.
The opposite is likely true. Players never make the decision to bluff when scared. True, they may become scared if they believe you may call their bluff, but that is after it has been made. The shaking hands were likely noticed as the chips were moved into the table. As a rule, shaking means strong, not weak.

You have probably heard this before, I know I have. Many poker books speculate that shaking is the sign of a monster hand. While this is a much sounder assumption than fear, I have a bit more to add.

I’ll go ahead and admit, this tell affects me. Like most tells, it is a subconscious occurrence. Unlike many, it isn’t one that can be easily controlled once identified. Imagine getting a stubborn case of hiccups at the table, it just kinda has to run its course. Because of this, I’ve played very close attention to when it happens. The good news? I don’t give away as much information as I thought.

My hands shake when I have the most at risk. It happens when I have a significant portion of my chips on the line, whether I have the nuts or I am bluffing my ass off. Further analysis shows:

• I am usually the aggressor
• The temperature is usually cold
• The risk is a function of relative chip stack and completely independent of whether or not the chips represent hundreds of dollars or nothing at all
• Early Parkinson’s may be setting in (but I hope not)

My opponents already know when I’m risking most my chips and am playing aggressive, so if that is all that can be summized from my wavering paws, my net information loss is zero. It is important for you to keep in mind that while you may perceive something as a tell, it may mean nothing. Inversely, it is important that I keep in mind that while I have found causes for my “tell,” they may not be the only causes.

I recognize that I have tells. We all do. As soon as I recognize and understand mine, I’ll be sure that you and my other possible opponents will be the last to know. If you have had any noteworthy experiences with tells, please feel free to leave them in the comments.

The law of averages is useless with small samples. If your memory alone can keep track of your poker hands, it is a small sample size. If you work with the statistics of months of quantified luck (I call this profits and losses) you will eventually see an average.

For example, if your long-term stats show that you typically win $5 in an hour of play, and your most recent hour nets you $50, you can expect the next hour to be closer to $5 then to $50. This is called regression towards the mean. $5 is the mean, or average. If you think of the “law of averages” in terms of returning your hourly profits to $5/hour regardless of what ever hot or cold streak you just came off, then you’d be correct. It’s just that no one thinks of the law of averages like this.

As a rule, disregard the waves of fortune and misfortune from day to day and focus on playing good cards. Only detailed records can give you any insight on what to expect in the future.

Here is a great refresher on odds from the article:

Let’s have a quick refresher on what “odds” are. We all know what a probability is (or at least, we’re familiar with the term!). Odds can be seen as ratios of probabilities. Just as we use P(A) for the “probability of A,” we may talk about O(A), the “odds of A” (where A is some apparently sensible proposition).

In terms of probabilities, O(A) = P(A)/P(~A). So for example, if there is a 66% probability of rain tomorrow, then O(rain) = 0.66/(1-0.66), or more easily 66:33, which finally reduces to 2:1 (usually read “two to one in favour”). The “:” is basically just a division sign, so O(rain) can be stated as “2 to 1” or as simply “2.” Although odds can be expressed as ratios of probabilities, they are best understood on their own terms altogether. In this case, “odds of 2 to 1 in favour of rain tomorrow” means something like “days like this are followed by twice as many rainy days as non-rainy days, to the best of my knowledge.”

Odds are even more familiar from the racetrack, where a bookie might give “10 to 1 on Longshot, to win.” What this means is that if the bookie is selling stakes for $5 each, then a single $5 stake will get you (10+1)*$5 = $55 if you win (i.e., a gain of $50 plus your $5 stake back), while a loss will simply lose you your $5 stake. (Of course, in order to make money, the bookie must think that the realodds on Longshot are even longer than 10 to 1.)

What games can compare to the skill/luck ratio of poker? Well there are games like tic-tac-toe, checkers and chess on one end of the spectrum. These are all skill based and at varying levels of difficulty. The flaw in not involving chance is that each aforementioned game can be won with a predetermined best move in every situation. We all should know how to play tic-tac-toe to either a win or a draw by now. Checkers and chess are the same only at a much more complex level–as proven by computers ability to overcome the best of us.

The other side of the spectrum? Keno is devoid of skill and a good example of how chance can quickly go too far. (Despite what Bizarro Grundy might have to say.)

So if poker is a middle ground, what other games can compare? Well, there are other card games of course…bridge, canasta, gin rummy to name a few. I am not too experienced in most of these, but without the opportunity to bluff it takes away some of the psychological element that I love so much. Of course you can bluff in “BS,” but that game lacks the gentlemanly quality.

Backgammon is a popular gateway game into poker. The introduction of dice bring chance to an otherwise skillful game. Stratego is another favorite of mine. It involves neither cards nor dice, but the mystery of the placement of your opponents pieces allow for lucky guesses at times. Man, I miss that game.

What else? Are there any other games that achieve the balance of skill and chance?

(a) think the government should not be in so much debt, but don’t really feel like paying more taxes to cover the IOUs?

or

(b) play poker and want to enjoy the game legally from the comfort of your own home.

Then you should pass this letter on to the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction (found here http://deficitreduction.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/contact because…

(a) you’ll sit back and watch a bunch of degenerate gamblers pay a vice tax to help get the country back on track.

or

(b) it will let the government know that you want to enjoy the game legally from the comfort of your own home.

Here is a sample letter provided by the Poker Player’s Alliance.

“Dear Honorable Joint Select Committee Members,

Please support HR 2366 — raise revenue without raising taxes

As a voter and tax payer, I am writing to ask that you please consider H.R. 2366, the Online Poker Act of 2011, during your deficit reduction discussions. This bipartisan legislation, sponsored by Congressman Joe Barton (R-TX), will provide much needed federal and state revenue without raising taxes. It will also bring American companies into the Internet poker market, creating thousands of new jobs that we so desperately need. It will provide for strong consumer protections and age verification requirements as well.

Former Homeland Security Advisor Tom Ridge supports federal licensing of online poker because it addresses control and accountability of cash flows. Additionally, WiredSafety, the world’s largest Internet safety group, concluded that “combining a thoughtful regulatory scheme with education, technology tools, and support appears to be the most effective means of handling the realities and risks” of online poker. This groundbreaking study can be found at www.theppa.org/harvardstudy. U.S.-based horse race wagering sites have proven that online betting sites can successfully implement these important protections. The game of poker deserves no less.

This bill does not authorize video poker or any other house-banked casino-style game. Rather, it provides for sensible regulation of the game of online poker — the electronic version of the game families across America play at the kitchen table — and is limited to this person-to-person game of skill.

Every federal dollar wasted on efforts to stop American adults from playing online poker is another dollar added to the federal deficit. Quite frankly, there’s simply no reason for the deficit reduction super committee to ignore HR 2366.

Thank you for your consideration,

Add your name here”

I guess the big anniversary is next year. I should do something…

I’ve already written about some of my favorite poker tunes, but I’ve learned that music can be more than diversion at the card table. In film, musical cues help the audience to feel how the director wants them to feel. You might think you are shedding a tear for the visual performance of the starlet’s death scene, but the accompanying violins have a very clear and intended affect. This same affect can be applied to poker.

I have a series of playlists. The first inspires aggression and a sense of urgency, made up of scores from chase scenes and mounting suspense. Think of tracks from the new Tron soundtrack or anything from the Bourne Trilogy, Batman Begins & Mission: Impossible.

The next playlist backs off the energy. I use this when I want to go back to the status quo, which for me is fairly tight play. Any “character building” movie music should work here. Anything you like, my playlist is mostly light John Williams.

Another playlist consists of entirely slow and happy music. I have a few Pixar scores here. I use this to take the edge off when I’m coming off a bad beat dangerously close to going on tilt.

Music can both sooth and waken the savage beast within, the trick is just finding what is right for you. If movie music isn’t your thing, so be it. Personally, I just find the connection to theatrical moments make the desired affect more prominent, not to mention the fact that lyrics distract me.

• Shaking hands or a flush face usually come from the adrenaline caused by a player’s excitement about a strong hand. Don’t assume shaking means nervousness, often the player is quite confident they will win.
• Your opponent will likely cover his cards  with his hand or look back at them more than once. This is a subconscious action in line with the desire to protect what one considers valuable. Keep in mind that you are looking for anything out of the ordinary. If he always covers his card in the same way, it means nothing.
• Disinterest and drawing attention away from the game is often an act to disguise a big hand.
• A player with a weak hand, hoping to bluff, may throw his chips into the pot aggressively and make a point for direct eye contact with the player thinking about the call. Often acting strong equals weak and acting weak equals strong.

It is also important to note that if you are up against an inexperienced (or drunk) player, the tells will be less reliable. This is because tells don’t really give you information about your opponent’s hand, only about how you opponent perceives the strength of his hand. If the hand is misread, you will be mistold.

Mistold is a new word copyright HellsColdDay 2008.