Habitation Intention

The Carnival of Space #221: The Prezi Experiment

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 00:49:00 +0000

Hit the forward arrow below to begin.

In case this gives you motion sickness, this week's articles are:

Applying Kant to Space: Part 2.5, The Starship of Musts

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 14:21:00 +0000

This is part 2.5of a series applying Kantian Ethics to manned space exploration and space colonization. All quotes are from The Groundwork of the Metaphysics of Morals. Please read part two before this part.

Imagine for a moment a starship without warp drive. It would have to be fairly large to support a crew of even 100. Even so, the 100 bedrooms would be small compared the the storage needed for food, water and equipment/materials for constructing homes on whatever different star system their multi-generational journey takes them. And that’s the problem, 100 people is the carrying capacity of the ship and it is a hard limit. These bedrooms are not luxurious, they are the bare minimum for human comfort and any increase in the ship’s crew will make it unethical to squeeze that many people together. Furthermore, life support systems will become overloaded if the population aboard the ship even reaches 101.

However, morally we are unable to limit the number of children. This is because it falls under the categorical imperative I described in part 2; it is something we can not do simply because we morally can not do it. Declaring something a categorical imperative is easy, explaining how it is a categorical imperative and how it is relevant is the next task.

We see how Kant’s law is relevant by applying the following test: try to make the rules that the starship’s crew has to follow to universal rules for all of humanity. That is to say imagine the whole Earth as a starship with a certain carrying capacity. We are free to educate; to give incentives to lower the number of children people choose to have less, but we can not force this rule upon all of humanity since it is impracticable to do so.

But this is not the end. No, we are in conflict with our space-faring goal of reaching the next star system on a multi-generational ship (the hypothetical imperative) should we conform to the categorical imperative. If our ship has a maximum load of 100 people then we are forced to meet this requirement just like we are forced to do homework if we want a degree.

To solve this conflict we must combine both the hypothetical imperative and the categorical imperative. That means our if-then statement become if we want to build a multi-generational starship then we must design it with a caring capacity that can expand. That way we can address both of the musts in the form of the hypothetical imperative and the categorical imperative.

Photo by Abriael

Applying Kant to Space: Part 2, What We Must and Must Not Do

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Sun, 09 Oct 2011 18:58:00 +0000

This is part two of a series applying Kantian Ethics to manned space exploration and space colonization. All quotes are from The Groundwork of the Metaphysics of Morals. Please read part one before this part.

Kant used the idea of imperatives to express the two different types of "must dos" in life. The first is called a "categorical imperative...which [is] represented [as] an action objectively necessarily of itself, without reference to another [goal]". The second is called the hypothetical imperative which are actions "good merely as a means to something else".

Photo by Tumnaselda

To make this clearer consider a starship on an 100 year mission. Physical requirements (like run x number of laps in y time) are ok to impose on the crew because one does not have to go on this mission to have a happy life; physical requirement belong to the hypothetical imperative. But imposing thought requirements and belief requirements would violate the categorical imperative.

For example, the captain of the starship and the design team must not place any limitation or requirements on the number of children crew members must or can have because that asks the crew to conform with a certain thoughts and that can make them miserable. It is different from physical requirements because it can be designed around. Furthermore, it is different because if we find ourselves violating anything that must be done to execute something that could be done then we find ourselves in moral fault. This is because it is far more important, because the proof for categorical imperatives does not rely on our wishes, to preserve categorical imperatives and abandon hypothetical ones.

Yes, this means we might not be able to do the 100 year starship mission at all.

Carnival of Space #218

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Sat, 08 Oct 2011 10:00:00 +0000

The Carnival of Space #218 has been posted at the AARTScope blog. You can follow the author on twitter @astroswanny.

Photo by K. Praslowicz.

Applying Kant to Space: Part 1, An Introduction to Kantian Ethics

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 23:56:00 +0000

Immanuel Kant was born in 1724, long before space dreams entered the mind of the general public. However, his thoughts still resonate today. His ideas resonate because he created an ethics system that was "cleansed of everything that may only be empirical and [based in] anthropology" (Source: Groundwork of the Metaphysics of Morals; all further ) Basically, he found a moral system that all rational beings would have to follow.; a moral system based on pure reason.

Kant's thoughts are important as this blog and the space community exploration the ethics of the field because of the many different cultures involved. We need some "supreme norm" to evaluate our ethical decisions in space. Otherwise, our discussions get clouded in the wide range of subjective ethics systems around the world.

One example is the need for space. Different cultures have different needs for personal space. Thus, the culture influences the size of hallways and rooms in a space station or settlement. Thus we see why the upcoming discussion is important.

Tomorrow I will explore more of Kant's thoughts.

Apollo Poked the Box but we are in a Dip

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 01:13:00 +0000

Seth Godin wrote a blog post about the "contradiction (it seems) between Poke the Box, which argues that you must consistently ship innovations to the market (and frequently fail), and The Dip [both by Mr. Godin], which argues that... the real success comes after the quitters have left the building".

The Apollo program, in fact the whole space race, poked the box in unique way. What they did back then is the biggest example of pushing pass the fear of shipping Seth Godin mentions.What's impressive about this is the cultural changes that took place to allow the space race. People, at one time, thought even short range rockets where impossible. Whole administrations on both sides of the race were against space programs at first.

We are now is the middle of the dip, the part where people quit because this is the most tiresome part of any endeavor. The excitement of the firsts has worn off. But quitting the multi-generational project that is space exploration "in the middle is dumb". We are on the verge of something epic. Every step through the brick wall that is holding humanity back from being space-faring will be awful, absolutely awful, but it will so be worth decades of effort on our part. Efforts that we might not see the fruits of, but efforts humanity will enjoy. No one said this would be easy.

Now is the hardest time in our progress towards space settlement, not our first baby steps, but our first steps as adults. We are allowed to fail over and over in the start, to keep poking at it until a species reaches its firsts in space. But once the project is committed to by showing the public successful baby steps, successful pokes, then, then we must not quit. Even as this struggle tempts us too.

Carnival of Space #217

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 22:08:00 +0000

The Carnival of Space #217 has been posted at Dear Astronomer.

Photo by M.V. Jantzen.

How the Race to the Bottom Blows Up Space Dreams

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Sun, 02 Oct 2011 09:39:00 +0000

Cheaper and faster, those two ideas dominate current industrial economies and strangles progress towards space faring economies.

Consumption as the Old Driver vs. the Need for New Drivers

We are use to this the model, buy stuff to satisfy our wants and needs at low, low prices. In the space age will will be doing the same things but it will be STEM (Science, Tech, Math and Engineering) and design powered. However, STEM powered things are costly mainly because the people who dream up these STEM based things demand a high pay for their training.

The Race to the Bottom

Seth Godin in a recent post said “[t]here's a race to the bottom, one where communities fight to suspend labor and environmental rules in order to become the world's cheapest supplier. The problem with the race to the bottom is that you might win”. Seth Godin goes onto explain that companies were able to charge a higher price and workers were able to earn more because of inefficiencies in the system. Now, as we remove each inefficiency, wages and prices drop. It seems we are stuck in this cycle.

Macro-engineering is the Solution

Macro-engineering project change the game. They remove inefficiency but rise wages because of a higher quality product being produced. This is why space is so important, we can make better stuff in zero gravity. We can produce more energy in space. It is the difference between bargain beef and organic beef.

Photo by gynti_46

Carnival of Space #216

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 02:25:00 +0000

The Carnival of Space #216 has been posted at Vintage Space!

Photo by Todd Huffman

The Subtlety of What's Next in Space

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 00:54:00 +0000

This is my entry for the Coalition for Space Exploration's "What’s Next?" Contest, please enjoy.

Photo by rAmmoRRison

We will not have cities on other planets in one hundred years, but subtle progress towards space habitation. This includes increased reliance on the undergraduate community, motivating them to continue space related careers. Isolating space programs economically, by the use of space resources to fund these high flying endeavours, will protect them from the recession and political movement. The diffusion of space centers and research throughout the nation will decrease the political tension in the space field. Increased focus on life cycle engineering during space system design is forced upon us because of the space junk problem. There is also the troubling public opinion towards science in general; it is no longer respected but is often regarded as “opinion”. All of the above items are next if becoming a space-faring species is in the cards for humanity.

One of the first lessons I learned in my ongoing undergraduate career is that attending a university is hard and learning Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) is harder. The joy of a STEM career is not enough to motivate students to complete their STEM majors, especially when other majors, like finance, seem more profitable. Space agencies will have to find ways to encourage undergraduate participation in the progress towards a space-faring society. This should be enough to keep STEM retention high.

Photo by blueforce4116

Global markets are currently volatile, so volatile that I fear we can no longer depend on them to fund space ventures using Earth’s resources. Private companies and governments must look at using space resources to fund high flying dreams. This will allow space development to continue no matter what happens on Earth. Furthermore, it will bring people into space ventures as money making opportunities open up in the high frontier.

Currently, with government being the major consumer of space services, space companies are exposed to political movements. At times like these, NASA is on the chopping block. However, independently funded space ventures are free from the tides of public opinion, even if they are ran by the government. No one will cut programs with short-term profit and technological benefits with no tax burden on the public. We also have the side benefit of speedier space development when funded with space resources.

Space projects are increasingly seen as only pork-barrel projects; not as projects of benefit to the greater public. However, this will change as humanity’s adventure into space increases in speed. Instead of adding onto the current space complexes, we will see spaceports rise all around the nation as demand for space services (especially telecommunications) increases. If people are able to see the impact of space in their local economies, they will have less reasoning behind the already baseless claim of the porky nature of space exploration.

However the space community does have self-made problems. The “[s]pace junk problem reache[d a] tipping point'” recently, “with enough currently in orbit to continually collide and create even more debris, raising the risk of spacecraft failures"1. If humanity wants to be space-faring, all future designs must focus on the whole life cycle of the device and include a way to safely de-orbit the object. I also fear that our attitudes are far riskier to development of the high frontier than a sphere of deadly space junk.

Science is no longer regarded as fact and I am troubled by this trend. This general attitude impacts the space field because of its high tech nature and need for heavy R&D. For example, if people are denying global warming, it becomes harder to convince them to launch more weather satellites or look into radiation. What we need is an increase in STEM education to allow people to connect with the scientific community better.

1: O'Neill, Ian. "Space Junk Problem Reaches 'Tipping Point'." Discovery News. Sep 2, 2011. Web. 26 Sep. 2011. .

Apology

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 02:53:00 +0000

I'm sorry for the offensive ad that was ran on my site. I have remove the Entrecard network as a result. Please accept my apology.

Image by butupa

Help NASA with Space Habitation

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Sat, 17 Sep 2011 12:57:00 +0000

College seniors and graduate students can build prototypes to be used in space in the eXploration Habitat (X-Hab) Academic Innovation Challenge. If NASA likes your proposal, they will send you $5-$45 thousand to build your idea. Stop procrastinating and build the space age.

Important Dates

March 14, 2011 - Date of Announcement / Release of RFP

March 29, 2011 Questions for TIM #1 Due

April 1, 2011 Notice of Intent Due

April 5, 2011 Technical Interchange Meeting Telecon #1

April 12, 2011 Questions for TIM #2 Due

April 19, 2011 Technical Interchange Meeting Telecon #2

May 6, 2011 Proposal Due Date

May 23, 2011 Award Announcements

The NASA Aeronautics Scholarship Program

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 12:36:00 +0000

The Aeronautics Scholarship Program (ASP) offers our nation's research leaders of tomorrow exceptional funding:
Undergraduate Students

$15,000 awarded for each school year, to be used for educational related expenses

$10,000 Summer internship at a NASA Research Center

2 years of support

Graduate Students

$35,000 stipend

$11,000 awarded each year, to be used for educational related expenses

$10,000 Summer internship at a NASA Research Center

2 years of support, with an option for a 3rd year

The NASA ASP online application is now open.

If you think you have the stuff to run with the nation's top program, than apply. Hurry, applications are due Jan. 15, 2012.

NASA Seeks Bight Undergraduates To Fly Research In the Vomit Comet

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 10:18:00 +0000

Undergrads, now is your chance to make a splash in the scientific community and do your own research with NASA.

Teams interested in conducting student-driven research should submit a letter of intent by Sept. 14. This step is optional, but serves as an introductory notice that a team plans to submit a proposal for the competition. Proposals for student-driven experiments are due Oct. 26, and selected teams will be announced Dec. 7. The actual flight experience will take place in June 2012.

This opportunity will set you up for a career in space, so what are you waiting for, my permission. Get a team together and start designing.

Mental Health in a Space Colony

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Sat, 10 Sep 2011 17:03:00 +0000

The human factor for manned space exploration brings with it the need to address mental health. Imagine your self in a space colony, not the leisure side, but the gritty side of daily survival. It is not a clean job, in fact space life is a swing between extremes. An easy life on one side and life or death situations on the other. This is hard to deal with mentally. But it will lead to better study of mental health, so we should not back down because of this nor have the stigma of mental health lead this not to be addressed.

It is Unacceptable to de-man the ISS

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 01:27:00 +0000

Dear NASA,

I write as a concerned friend. Recently, a Russian Progress rocket failed to reach space, prompting NASA to consider de-manning the International Space Station (ISS). This is unacceptable, NASA, unacceptable because it removes a major goal of the space programs, makes it harder to advocate for space, and makes it harder for space to be used as a tool a peace.

I got into an argument with a friend to explain why space exploration was important. I could only pull out philosophical arguments until I explained the ISS' reasearch programs. It provides tangible, non-Segan like answers for the question "why explore space". De-manning the ISS removes this tangible argument. De-manning the ISS also makes it harder to advocate for this reason, especially if it burns up in the atmosphere, adding to the long history of space station being wasted. It is hard to argue to spend large amount of money if its results aren't around for years and years. The Sudden Self-doubt in Russia over "crash of Progress space freighter" shows what happens when space programs make mistakes and fail. If the ISS is wasted, the same will happen. Finally, without an ISS there is nothing that will stop a military-based space race.

Best,
AronSora

Ignore Please

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 00:31:00 +0000

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Carnival of Space #163-#165

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Sun, 08 Aug 2010 23:58:00 +0000

I missed a few editions of the Carnival of Space, catching up in 3...2...1...

Carnival of Space #163 at the Planetary Society
Carnival of Space #164 at Next Big Future
Carnival of Space #165 at Cumbrian Sky

Photo By Ohio Ron

Interview: Dr. Lee Valentine of SSI

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Thu, 05 Aug 2010 00:42:00 +0000

One of the leading forces in the space habitation movement is the Space Studies Institute (SSI). I honestly thought this organization was history, but as SSI gears up for Space Manufacturing 14 – a conference on the technology on policy needed for space settlement – it is evident that SSI is here to stay and is more determined than ever. I was more certain that SSI was going to complete its mission when I saw the passion of Dr. Lee Valentine and other members of the SSI I interacted with. I was extremely lucky to have Dr. Lee Valentine, a member of SSI from the very beginning and current Executive Vice President, share his passion for space colonization and SSI in an email interview.

AronSora: For people who aren't familiar with SSI or your organization's recent work, can you give a brief history? What have you done in the last year?

Dr. Lee Valentine: SSI is a 33-year-old organization. Let's start off with what we've done. The first thing we did was to support the doctoral thesis of Scott Dunbar who showed that there should be asteroids trapped in orbit about the Earth-Sun Trojan points. These would be the easiest material objects to reach in the entire Solar System. We supported SpaceWatch, which began to discover the large population of Near Earth Asteroids. We developed electromagnetic mass drivers to launch raw materials from the Moon to high Earth orbit. We did much of the development of processes to get engineering materials from the Moon, specifically aluminum and glasses, including glass-glass composite materials. We designed the Lunar Prospector spacecraft that found water at the lunar poles. We did the first separation of raw lunar regolith into feedstocks suitable for industrial processes. We designed power satellites optimized for construction from lunar materials. We developed processes for completely enclosed, all biological life support systems at Cornell University. We supported the development of piston pump technology, now used for high performance, longest life rocket engines. We designed space settlements. I'm sure I'm forgetting other things SSI has done.

In the last year, we moved the office to Mojave, at a considerable savings in overhead. We have organized the next Space Manufacturing and Space Settlement Conference. We have made an investment intended to bring the world's first fully reusable piloted spacecraft into operation next year.

AronSora: So, it is safe to assume that SSI is all about the hardcore engineering around space habitation?

Dr. Lee Valentine: That's only the means to the end, but that would be a fairly accurate summary. Without new technologies that SSI is pioneering, space settlement will not be possible. SSI was created to fill in the missing technical pieces needed to settle the High Frontier.

AronSora: What made you want to join SSI?

Dr. Lee Valentine: The fact that they were capable people working on real hardware projects designed to provide a basis for a real, profitable space economy that would lead to space settlement.

AronSora: Where do you see SSI in 10 years? Would you have completed some of your goals?

Dr. Lee Valentine: I think SSI will be vibrant and pushing hard on the forefront of space development again. I do not expect that we will have achieved our final goal of establishing permanent, self-sufficient settlements in space in 10 years, but I do expect we'll have made huge progress toward building and deploying power satellites and developing technologies for space manufacturing. There are many small technical steps that need to be taken, so yes, we will have met more of those goals

AronSora: In your mind, what is the most compelling reason to inhabit space?

Dr. Lee Valentine: The survival and prosperity of humankind.

AronSora: What can people expect from Space Manufacturing 14, what makes this space conference unique?

Dr. Lee Valentine: This conference focuses on the hardware needed to bring the idea of space settlement from fantasy into reality.

AronSora: Describe to me the atmosphere at a Space Manufacturing. What is it like to be there?

Dr. Lee Valentine: It's exciting if you're interested in space settlement. It's especially good if you like to talk to lots of very smart people with interesting ideas. It's also fun because many people who are famous in the tech world because of their professional accomplishments attend these conferences. So you meet famous physicists, astronauts, mathematicians, robot developers and rocket builders. So it's great to meet people who are working hard toward these goals, and it's great to see the progress from one conference to another..

AronSora: What would Dr. O'Neill, if he was alive today, think of humanity's progress in space?

Dr. Lee Valentine: Professor O'Neill always said that things looked the blackest before the dawn, so I think he would be very optimistic, particularly since we have a new space industry that appears to be able to lower the cost of space transportation by a factor of up to 100 within the next 10 years.

AronSora: Do you have any advice for people who want to support space settlement?

Dr. Lee Valentine: Join SSI. Invest in the capable NewSpace companies. Support the reinvigoration of technology development at NASA and the utilization of the capable commercial space transportation providers for both human and cargo transport to low Earth orbit.

There are a number of technical problems that need solutions before we have a truly mature space transportation system. By that, I mean a system in which you throw away nothing but the propellant, and one in which you can use the vehicle at least daily. Such space transportation will lower the cost by a factor of about 100.

If NASA becomes a good customer for transportation services instead of a competitor, we expect to see a steady reduction in transportation cost by the market force of competition.

AronSora: Thank you Dr. Valentine.

Make sure you register for Space Manufacturing 14 and submit your papers, abstracts are due August 16th. I also suggest you explore the SSI website.

All images from NASA

Carnival of Space #162

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 04:54:00 +0000

The Carnival of Space #162 has been posted at Skymania. Every week, the space community showcases its best articles. The Carnival of Space is organized by Fraser Cain of Universe Today. Please, if you run a space related blog, post a link to this week's Carnival of Space.

Photo by lehcar1477

SPC #27: Irrational Dreams?

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 04:29:00 +0000

Welcome to the Sunday Paper Club. Every Sunday, this blog will offer an analysis of a paper on space habitation and other related topics. These are my opinions on a weekly scientific paper; basically, I read the paper and write down my thoughts while I read it. They are subject to my perspectives and believes. I am open to debate, so if any reader believes I have misinterpreted something in a paper, please point it out. I'm only a student and I'm still learning how to read these papers and interpret them. All quotes and ideas are from the paper, unless otherwise noted.

This week we are reviewing the paper Irrational Dreams of Space Colonization. I am using a format based on the Lifehacker article Back to School: Keep an Academic Reading Journal.

Article Information

Title: Irrational Dreams of Space Colonization
Author: Lynda Williams
Date: January 2010
Volume: 22
Issue: 1
Page: 4-8

Image by Flickr user Temari 09 
(traveling)

Article Overview
While the knee jerk reaction would be to attack this piece, this article offers a refreshing and an overview of all the most effective counter-arguments to space habitation. These counter-arguments should be understood and carefully considered by all space cadets; this paper asks the space community to seek Earth based solutions, instead of space based solutions, for many of the problems humanity faces.

Key Quotes and My Comments
"...we have five billion years, plus or minus a few hundred million, to plan our extraterrestrial escape. The need to colonize the moon or Mars to guarantee our survival is not pressing" Page 4.

My comment: I agree, it might not be pressing if we only consider the sun as out primary threat, but I still think we need to maintain an active space program and slowly work our way to leaving this solar system.

"There are many Earth-based technological strategies that can be developed in time to mediate [deadly asteroids and comets], such as gravitational tugboats that drag the objects out of range" Page 5.

"This is the core of the ethical dilemma posed by space colonization: should we put our resources into developing human colonies on other worlds to survive natural and manmade catastrophes, or should we focus all of our energies on solving and mitigating the problems that create these threats on Earth?" Page 5

My comment: This is a point that must be researched more by the space community. I feel there is a way to gain resources from NEOs to create a planetary defence against astroids...but the environmental issues are harder to solve with space. We need to find the set of world problems which space is the only solution, then we can have a real discussion.

"Currently, there are no means for generating the energy on the moon needed to extract the helium-3 to produce the promised endless source of energy. Similar energy problems exist for the proposed use of solar power on the moon, which has the additional problem of being sunlit two weeks a month and dark for the other two weeks" Page 6.

My Comment: This is a valid point that could kill a lot of plans for space habits on the moon and it also kills the helium-3 hype.

"To date, no space-faring nation has ratified [The Moon Treaty], meaning the moon, and all celestial bodies including Mars and asteroids, may be up for the taking" Page 6.

" Every year, since the mid-1980s, a treaty has been introduced into the UN for a Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS), with all parties, including Russia and China, voting for it, except for the United States and Israel" Page 5.

My Comment: The two above quotes are really eye opening..despite all the talk of world peace through space settlements, there is still a high potential for a nation to go plant a flag in the moon and declare the whole moon their own...this would start WW3, easily. It's frustrating that we have to deal with all this political drama...not supporting these bills is short sighted...everone wins when we work together.

I think getting these treaties ratified should be the next major step of the space movement.

"Many young scientists are perhaps fueling the prophesy of our planetary destruction by dreaming of lunar and/or Martian bases to save humanity, rather than working on the serious environmental challenges that we face on Earth" Page 8.

My Comment: From my experience, many of the young space cadets are also environmentalists, but I need to prove that statement. That being said, more environmental action would be nice. However, I feel the space community is so small that we are not having a huge impact by working on space instead of the environmental movement. Personally, I support environmentalism because I know how rare this planet is...how lucky we are. I know how hard it would be to live else where. I do what I can to support green activies on campus...I think it's telling that we have no space club but a few environmental groups...but the author is right, I could be running a blog about saving the Earth instead of blogging about space habitation.

Questions Raised by the Paper
Can humanity pull off massive ecological action, space settlement and world peace at the same time?

Does the book Paradise Regained: The Regreening of Earth offer an effective counter-argument to the paper?

Can the Earth sustain future populations? (there is a ton of conflicting data out there, I may need a few posts to sort to all out)

Is it possible for one person to activily support and contribute to saving the Earth and space habitation?

Does the paper Space Colonization--Yes, But Not Now counter these arguments or further support them?

Space Settlement: A Leap of Faith?

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Fri, 16 Jul 2010 03:57:00 +0000

Image by Flickr user The Boatman

Apollo was insane... no, insane is pulling an all nighter to finish a 20 question long problem set each question having 8 to 10 parts...insane is drinking 5, 5 Hour Energy Drinks in a row...the Apollo program was deranged. To demonstrate how much faith in man's abilities was involved with dreams of landing on the moon in 10 years, I give you exhibit A, Tom's Astroblog post Machines: A Begining, Part 1...

When we were first developing the technology to go into space, I admit I had some serious doubts. Remember, we’re talking about the very beginning of the 60′s. If you suppose life then was much as it is now, you are sadly mistaken. Let me think: Okay, the telephones weighed five pounds and were permanently affixed to one spot. There was no caller ID, no answering machines, no call waiting, no texting. You had a black and white television (maybe) and three channels. No cable, no satellites, no pocket calculators, no cell phones, and no home computers. And we’re going to the moon. Okey dokey.

The Question is: Will we ever have to, once again, take such a death-defying leap in space development to build our first space settlements? But if we wait to think about and plan out the lead; build a bridge over the gap, when does all the planning stop and we start the countdown clocks? To answer, I have commandeered the lens of Seth Godin and personal development blogger Danielle Laporte.

Plan 1: Go Forth with Confidence

There is a lot of discussion going on about space habitation, all sorts of papers and books are published in increasing numbers every year. There are serious discussions about legal issues surrounding property in space and if this dream could ever be profitable. One listen to the people calling in on the Space Show or the comments on popular blogs articles easily show we are in a conceptional design like stage of space settlement.

Seth Godin, rebel fighting against ineffective business world traditions, calls what the space community is doing now thrashing, and it is far from a bad thing:

"So how do you ship [or build a massive object]? Well, first you decide it’s important to ship. If you decide it’s important to ship, you do things in the right order, you do them with rigor. And what you say is the first week of this project is when we’re going to thrash.

Lawyers, CEO come during the first week or don’t come at all. We can thrash all we want at the beginning because we haven’t done, we haven’t laid the foundation, we haven’t ordered the parts, we haven’t built everything. Come at the beginning and then you’re not allowed back in the room. You will not see it again until it’s in the store. You will not see it again until it’s online. You will not see it again until it’s shipped out the door, so you better come at the beginning and thrash a lot.

People say this is unrealistic. Well, shipping is unrealistic. It is unrealistic to imagine that three or five or fifty motivated people can make a dent in the universe, but they can. And so the way they do it is by taking the unrealistic act of thrashing at the beginning...[because "the closer we get to shipping the louder the [fear based part of the] brain gets. The more the reasons there are to worry"]". ~Seth Godin's Blog: Transcript of the first Linchpin session.

Basically, this path has us on Earth in labs and libraries refining the idea of space settlement until we have perfected every issue: technical, legal and financial. It is a path that has us launching smaller endeavors (by small I mean missions that are about the same size and scope as the International Space Station) every time we can prove a small undertaking will work. After those small attempts at space settlement fail or succeed, we go back to our labs and do more studies and plan out a smaller mission. If we can come to agreement on the path humanity should take in space, then we won't have another fizzle out in the same way Apollo lost steam.

Image by Flickr user smithfischer

I really liked the way the blog White Hot Truth explains why a confidence based plan for anything is great, it is because "[y]ou need confidence to lead, to sustain, and to offer the kind of straight up compassion that transforms people" and society. We need to be able to look into the eyes of people, as the space community, and say "I am 100% sure a space settlement will work and will help the people you love". I'm not sure we are there yet...it might be years before we are that point. So, a leap of faith might be needed

Pros and Cons of Long Term Plan

Pros:

High amount of long term public support; A solid plan will have tons of support behind it
Increased Safety
Easier to convince investors to invest since most of the risks are mitigated

Cons:

Low amount of short term public support; “We are doing research” doesn't get a lot of people excited
Requires dedication; Space Settlement could fizzle out or die after an accident or a long period of solely researching (For example, if we don't launch anything for 5 years, support might die) under this plan
Requires time; requires a multi-generational plan
Has to deal with political cycles

Plan 3: Take a Leap of Faith

Despite our level of activity space , starting a moon base tomorrow would still be a leap of faith. We won't have a successful model to base our moon base off of. Yes, we have the ISS, but I think it is only on the verge of becoming the epic assembly it was always meant to be. We are close, really, really painfully close. But we still have radiation and gravity issues to deal with. The legal issues aren't settled yet.

But Seth Godin once again points out the good in the confusion:

"...'This better work,' is the thinking of safety, of proven, of beyond blame.
'This might work,' on the other hand, is the thinking of art, innovation and insight...if you spend all your time on stuff that might work, you'll never need to dream up something that better work, because your art will have paid off long ago." ~Seth Godin's blog: This better work

Basically, you need to take a risk to do something epic like space habitation. You need to do stuff the might not work. We might need to start companies that end up failing or use regulation that is too loose or too tight. But, these risks are justified because of what we could do.

Pros and Cons of a Leap of Faith

Pros

Doesn't require a multi-generational plan; complete the project in a short burst.
Easy to motivate public; they see benefits within their lifetimes
Fast
Has very few political cycles to deal with

Cons

Riskier
Less investors; raising capital for leaps of faith can be pulled off, but you at least need a detailed and solid business plan...but those usually have some time of foundation, a proven case on which the risk can be based on

Conclusion

White Hot Truth puts it bluntly, “you need blind faith to build confidence”. Apollo proved that we could visit other worlds, ISS proved we could live in space and both were leaps of faith. This is not a black and white choice - we need both confidence and leaps. However, we must make sure there is a transition between the leap of faith and a proven plan. For example, I feel Apollo would have been so much more successful if the program effectively moved from Kennedy's argument for space into continuing Apollo level funding as a part of a multi-generational plan; as a part of something bigger than beating the Russians based on arguments generated from what was learned in those first moon landings.

I feel, however, that the space community in general relies too much on leaps of faith. Do you think I am insane? Feel free to challenge me in the comments.

Carnival of Space #161: Traditional Edition

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 04:54:00 +0000

Check out the Youtube version of the Carnival of Space.

Hi, my name is AronSora and this is the Carnival of Space #161.

Quick Version:

1: Astroblog; Music, Moons and a Partial Eclipse
2: Astroblog; Ian's Guide to Photographing Iridium Flares
3: Urban Astronomer; What was the Star of Bethlehem?
4: Chandra Blog; A Black Hole Slingshot?
5: Music of the Spheres; Cité de l'Espace (Space City)
6: Collect Space; Rare rocket delivery: Gemini-Titan display arrives in Houston
7: (mp3) Cheap Astronomy; Favorite Shuttle Missions
8: Next Big Future; Diamond Methane Impact Nuclear Fusion
9: Weird Sciences; Surviving Alien Invasion: Filmmaker's Worst Nightmare
10: Next Big Future; Lawrence Livermore Simulating Viable Nuclear Bomb Asteroid Deflections
11: Rocket Scientist; RS Classic: Science faux pas (and my movie pet peeves)
12: Habitation Intention; Two Call for Papers
13: 21st Century Waves; How the Sun is Influencing Climate and the New Space Age
14: Universe Today; Graphite 'Whiskers' Found in Apollo Moon Rocks
15: Out of the Cradle; Review: "Platinum Moon"
16: A Babe in the Universe; Earthrise, Gusev Crater
17: The Space Writer's Ramblings; Planetary Habilitability
18: Weird Sciences; Hyperluminal Spaceship, Tachyons and Time Travel
19: Crowlspace; E-Eyes on the Cosmos
20: Centauri Dreams; Costs of an Interstellar Probe
21: Armagh Planetarium Blog; Alternative Space
22: (PDF, 41 Page E-Mag) Universities Space Research Association's Lunar and Planetary Institute; The Trouble with Titan

My Spotlight:
The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautic's Design/Fly/Build Competition

The Portal to the Universe

Inspired by the Sky

There are two Submissions are from Astroblog. The first article, Music, Moons and a Partial Eclipse, has this blogger running around and spreading the news about an upcoming lunar eclipse during a school concert night. The question is, will he have time after going to a restaurant to set up his cameras and record this event. Check out his blog to find out whether or not he got the shot and to read his other submission where he shares his knowledge about photographing the light reflected off of Iridium communication satellites.

Next up, we have the Urban Astronomer who tries to find what event caused the Star of Bethlehem. Was it a comet, a supernova, a planetary conjunction or divine intervention. You'll have to check out the article to find out!

The people who are lucky enough to operate the Chandra telescope have found a recoiling black hole. Basically, they saw a galaxy with multiple blackholes with one of the blackholes getting slung out of the galaxy at high speed. Nice work guys!!!

Celebrate Space History

FlyingSinger visits the Space City, an epic space museum. They have a full mock up of the MIR space station, stunning even this veteran space cadet with its size. Go forth to his site, and experience the epic.

The ninja reporters at Collect Space have documented the delivery of a Gemini-Titan rocket to NASA's Johnson Space Center, completing the story of local involvement in space told through the many rockets displayed. However, this rocket has suffered damage and, because it is so rare, will take some effort to fix everything. Check out the site to find out how the rocket is doing.

With the shuttle program winding down, The author of Cheap Astronomy and the senior editor of Universe Today reminiscence about their favorite shuttle missions. They recall the greatest moments and the times when they had to bite their nails. Take a trip down memory road, check out this interview!!

Space Cadets Who Ponder about the Future

Of course, to get to the future, we need to manage to survive and that will take a ton of energy. With oil running out, Next Big Future alerts us to a method to create nuclear energy by firing a diamond bullet into a methane crystal, overcoming many of the problems with fusion energy. Read the article if you want to learn more about this game changing technology.

Ever if we deal with our energy needs, an alien invasion will basically alienate the human race. The blogger at Weird Sciences gives ways the human race can survive, from an AI to rebuild after everything is gone to establishing stealthy space colonies, where there is a will, there is a way. Read the article, it could save your life if scifi becomes real.

The most realistic threat from space is not a bunch of aliens, but asteroids. However, just like the movies, we could just nuke the problem away. Can't we?... But would it work? Won't it just create smaller pieces of flaming death! Read about the asteroid nuke simulation over at Next Big Future!

Unfortunately, space won't be like the movies, the Rocket Scientist explains all the contradictions with physics most scifis have.

Leave Earth?

My blog, Habitation Intention, covers two call for papers that you can submit your high-quality ideas to, one of the conferences is a historic icon in the space world, check out my blog to learn how to submit your papers.

Of course, we will need the economic strength to become spacefaring. But will the sun's patterns effect the economic cycles that lead to periods filled with exploration, find out at 21st Century Waves.

Graphite whiskers have been found in a few moon rocks, were those whiskers indigenous to the moon? Join the discussion at Universe Today.

To find out how the commercialization of space might go, Out of the Cradle submits a review of a fiction about a group of astronauts who go to the moon to find platinum to help energy needs on Earth. This is fun scifi filled with political drama. I won't give away much, but the crew gets stuck in a sticky situation, find out more at Out of the Cradle.

Maybe all the political drama would go away if those politicians experienced the Overview effect, a feeling of insignificance when viewing the planet from a far. A Babe in the Universe brings us the awe-inspiring picture of the Earth, viewed from mars. It is an amazing picture.

But it will take more than exploitable materials to settle a planet, we will need water, warmth and food. The Space Writer takes a look at our closest neighbors, Mars and Venus, to see if life could have survived on those planets.

Of course, we can't stay in this solar system, that are really cool things else where in the universe. Yet, they are so far away. Traveling faster than the speed of light could allow us to explore other system, but it could cause weird paradoxes with the flow of time itself... or so we thought, Weird Sciences shows us that the paradoxes might not exist.

But, we will need to see where we are warping off to. Crowlspace discusses the technology being used to map Pluto that could be useful in mapping exoplanets.

Centauri Dreams gets down to the dollars and cents, mapping out how long and how much money it will take to build an interstellar starship. It is not as long or as much as you think, learn how close we are by reading their submission.

The Armagh Planetarium Blog reports on all the cool things we would have achieved all these epic things if funding for NASA wasn't slashed in the 70's, check out this submission to read about the creative projects NASA engineers dreamed up.

Want to Join Us?

Have all these legendary articles have you itching the ranks of the Space Cadets? Then the Universities Space Research Association's Lunar and Planetary Institute has published a 41 page e-magazine with all the recent developments and conferences in the space field. You'll be in the know in no time.

My Spotlight

Almost done! I would like to spotlight 3 organizations. The AIAA Design Build Fly is a really amazing aerospace competition for undergrads, I had a lot of fun participating in the event and, after talking with them, I believe all the participants are the next set of aeronautics leaders. Registration for this year is opening in about a month, so keep your eye on them. Next, The Portal to the Universe is a hub for all space blogs, check them out to see the whole space community shine. Finally, I would like to thank Princeton Community Television for letting me use their equipment and my parents for their camera (Check out my dad's contracting company) to put this edition of the Carnival of Space together. Thank you!

All photos by Flickr user Lunar and Planetary Institute

Carnival of Space #160

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Sun, 04 Jul 2010 16:29:00 +0000

The Carnival of Space #160 has been posted at Beyond Apollo. Every week, the space community showcases its best articles. The Carnival of Space is organized by Fraser Cain of Universe Today. Please, if you run a space related blog, post a link to this week's Carnival of Space.

Happy 4th of July!!!!!!

Photo by wyntuition

Please Ignore - Test

noreply@blogger.com (Aron Sora) — Sun, 04 Jul 2010 07:42:00 +0000

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