Goal-Line Stand

Rear-View Monday: For Cards, Boldin is expendable

Brad Gagnon — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 06:57:21 GMT

No one predominant theme to this week’s column. Just going to ramble on about a few trends and storylines from the Sunday that was. Naturally, if it bleeds it leads. But there was no blood Sunday, so controversy takes the top spot.

CARDS SHOULD TRADE BOLDIN

Yes, I know that can’t happen right now. The wonderfully dramatic soap opera that is the NFL trade deadline has already come and gone. But the Arizona Cardinals need to strongly consider dealing their tough-as-nails but (in a strange and oxymoronic way) injury-prone and whiny No. 2 wideout before his value goes down. It has to happen as soon as this season ends.

The key words from the above paragraph: “No. 2.” Other teams have to put up with divas and drama queens because they’re their top players. But with Larry Fitzgerald already in the stable -- and Steve Breaston proving to be a more than capable secondary option -- the Cards need to dump Boldin before it’s too late.

Boldin, who’s dealing with an ankle injury, ran his mouth after being made inactive for Arizona’s big victory Sunday in Chicago, calling out head coach Ken Whisenhunt.

"The only thing I can say is that when I came here, all of my stuff was in my locker," Boldin said. "I went out and warmed up -- felt great -- and when I came back in, everything was gone. Nobody was man enough to come to me and tell me what was the situation.

"I would have probably felt better had somebody been man enough to walk up to me and tell me what the situation was, but I had to walk back in the locker room and find all of my stuff gone."

This isn’t the first time Boldin has got his panties into a knot regarding team affairs; his contract squabbles were the top story of Arizona’s offseason. But the spring and summer should have been about the Cards’ newfound on-field success and first-ever Super Bowl appearance.

You know, just like how Sunday evening should have been about an impressive road win over the Bears. But Boldin, strangely, continues to display an attitude that completely differs from the persona we see from him on the field.

ESPN.com’s Mike Sando -- who first brought the Boldin trade possibilities to the forefront on Sunday -- notes that the Cardinals are now 5-1 without Boldin since the start of the 2008 season. Arizona doesn’t have the luxury of stockpiling at a position in which it’s already rich. Sunday’s debacle was the last straw -- the Cards need to trade Boldin in the offseason and improve either elsewhere.

SIX SPECIAL GAMES (AND ONE TO GO)

I mentioned last week that there was an unusual number of good games in Week 9, counting seven significant matchups in total. Here’s a quick take on what went down in the six that have already been played.

Cardinals-Bears: I kept believing and believing in Chicago, but it looks as though the Bears’ season is on the brink of being over. There just isn’t enough talent, and Jay Cutler alone can’t change that. Funny that after that tumultuous offseason, Denver is the one laughing last (or at least currently.)

Ravens-Bengals: The Ravens are now essentially two and a half games back of Cincinnati, with the Bengals having clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker. I firmly believe the Ravens have more talent, but the stars seem to be aligned for the Bengals. Baltimore does have a fairly weak schedule during the home stretch, but a wild-card spot is probably best-case scenario at this point.

Texans-Colts: It’s always something for the Texans. Penalties did them in on this occasion, as they fall to 0-8 all-time in Indianapolis. Houston has lost three straight games to the Colts by a total of 13 points. The way things are looking, the Texans, Ravens and Chargers could be left fighting it out for just one wild-card spot.

Dolphins-Patriots: It isn’t that the Wildcat didn’t work, per se, because Miami’s two scoring drives were Wildcat-filled. It’s just that there was no consistent rhythm. New England is the better team, and like Denver and Indy, their division is practically theirs.

Chargers-Giants: Who would you rather have as your quarterback, Philip Rivers or Eli Manning? For me, I don’t care that Manning’s won the only Super Bowl of the two, Rivers is hands down the better leader and the better player. And he proved that Sunday, bearing down and getting his stuff together after throwing what could’ve been a game-ending pick late in the fourth quarter. I don’t feel as though Manning would’ve been that cool in the face of adversity.

Cowboys-Eagles: The Cowboys take over the NFC East lead, for now, and deservedly so with a gritty victory in Philly. But I said last week that I haven’t been able to determine which team is better for some time, and that’s still the case. I think if these guys play a seven-game series, it goes to overtime in Game 7.

Steelers-Broncos: Stay tuned.

BEST CHANCE TO RUN THE TABLE?

No winless teams left, which is a shame because in a sick, twisted way I have more fun cheering for a team to go 0-16 than 16-0. So now that the Buccaneers have spoiled that party (are the 2008 Lions popping corks together somewhere?) I guess we should start watching both the 8-0 Saints and the 8-0 Colts. Here’s what each has left, with my predictions in brackets:

Saints: @ St. Louis (win), @ Tampa Bay (win), vs. New England (loss), @ Washington (win), @ Atlanta (loss), vs. Dallas (win), vs. Tampa Bay (win), @ Carolina (win).

How sexy is that Pats-Saints game in New Orleans? Potentially, it could be history’s only 16-0 team trying to prevent a new team from getting to 11-0. Not bad. I have New Orleans going 14-2 and getting to the Super Bowl, just like I said they would back in August.

Colts: vs. New England (win), @ Baltimore (loss), @ Houston (loss), vs. Tennessee (win), vs. Denver (win), @ Jacksonville (win), vs. New York Jets (win), @ Buffalo (win).

Again, 14-2. So I have neither going 16-0, which shouldn’t be a big surprise. Perfect seasons are anomalies. They don’t happen, and mathematically they definitely don’t happen twice in three years.

That said, if one team has a better shot at pulling it off, I’m thinking it’s the Colts, who’ve been in a position like this many times before and have a fairly easy final five games (when starters could potentially rest.)

TWITTER ZONE: THOUGHTS IN 25 WORDS OR LESS

+ Junior Seau is on a personal 25-game winning streak with the Patriots.

+ Tom Brady is now 59-10 lifetime at home. No quarterback has had a home record that good since the 1970 merger, according to ESPN.

+ Why does the league treat touchdown celebrations like H1N1? Let the guys have some fun and show off their personalities. I never thought I’d say this, but take a page from the CFL’s book.

+ The Giants defence continues to look lost without Kenny Phillips.

+ The Saints defence has two more touchdowns this season than the Browns offence.

+ Vincent Jackson has officially become an elite receiver

+ Whisenhunt in his post-game press conference: “We didn’t let ‘em off the hook!” Amazing.

+ Aqib Talib is a true playmaker; he just has to keep his head on straight.

+ They say one bad unit can destroy a season, and Green Bay’s offensive line is proving that to be true.

+ Amazingly, the Cardinals -- a team that has to travel like no other -- are 4-0 on the road, 1-3 at home.

+ The Bears are the definition of “flat.”

+ And the Packers aren’t a playoff team, either.

+ Coincidence or not, Vince Young wins games. He’s now won six straight starts.

+ Why do the chains have to come from the far side of the field every time there’s a measurement? Can anyone actually offer me a reasonable explanation for this?

+ I’m consistently breaking my self-mandated 25-word limit, and I’m OK with that.

AWARDS

Player of the week: Chris Johnson -- That’s two in a row for the Titans speedster. Without him, Tennessee surely wouldn’t have a win (as opposed to, you know, two). Johnson had 160 yards and two scores on 28 touches against San Francisco. LenDale White has been completely forgotten.

Team of the week: Arizona Cardinals -- If only they could find some consistency. Here’s a look at their last three games: Very impressive 24-17 win at Giants Stadium, completely spiritless 34-21 loss to the 2-4 Panthers, complete domination of the much more talented Bears … in Chicago.

Surprise player of the week: Robert Meachem -- Drew Brees can make anyone look decent, but Meachem sure did find a good time to have the best game of his bust-worthy career.

Surprise team of the week: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- I’m wondering if Raheem Morris has some incriminating photos of Mike McCarthy.

SETTING THE PACE

+ Peyton Manning is on pace to break Dan Marino’s all-time single season passing yards mark … by a total of six yards.

+ Chris Johnson is on pace to run for 1919 yards, which would be seventh on the all-time single-season list, 15 yards back of Earl Campbell.

+ Bills rookie safety Jairus Byrd has seven picks in his last four games and is on pace to intercept 14 passes this season. That would tie Night Train Lane's single-season record, set back in 1952.

+ Vikings defensive end Jared Allen is on pace to record 21 sacks, which would bring him just a sack and a half short of Michael Strahan's single-season record.

IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY...

MVP: Drew Brees -- Peyton Manning finally takes a back seat to Brees, who’s simply doing more with less.

Offensive player of the year: Chris Johnson -- Tough week for Manning, who loses two awards. It’s just a shame Johnson’s stuck on a losing team, because he truly is having the best offensive season in football.

Defensive player of the year: Jared Allen -- Can’t get knocked out on a bye week.

Offensive rookie of the year: Percy Harvin -- Ditto.

Defensive rookie of the year: Brian Cushing -- Mr. Consistent has had at least six tackles in all nine of his starts.

Comeback player of the year: Anthony Hargrove -- No one’s noticing, but the guy’s tearing it up in his second life with the Saints.

Coach of the year: Josh McDaniels -- Tonight’s gonna be a big night. (Don’t tell me the Black Eyed Peas aren’t in your head now. You’re welcome … or I apologize, depending on your tastes.)

Sunday Picks: Texans hand Colts first loss

Brad Gagnon — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 21:23:24 GMT

What’s that? A record of 14-7-5 against the spread the last two weeks? Maybe this isn’t a lost cause after all. But before I get too cocky, maybe I should focus on keeping the ball rolling in Week 9, where there are a ton of games that could go either way.

It’s a gimme for the Falcons, at home against the Redskins after putting up a nice fight down in the Bayou. But I’m a bit concerned about Roddy White’s health. White’s been hampered by a knee injury all week, but is expected to play Sunday. I still don’t think the ‘Skins get inside 10 points… Atlanta 31, Washington 13

Alright, it’s about time the Bears start to play to the level of their talent. Chicago gets an up-and-down Arizona team in Illinois Sunday, and there’s a very real chance the Cards could be without Anquan Boldin. Regardless, we’re looking at two borderline playoff teams, so it should stay close… Chicago 20, Arizona 17

This much is for sure: Indianapolis is a much better team than Houston. But the Texans are feeling very good right now and have nothing to lose headed into a crucial matchup with the Colts, who have struggled just a tad as of late. Indy’s secondary is a bit of a mess, especially with Bob Sanders going down this week with an elbow injury. Upset alert… Houston 30, Indianapolis 27

And again, this much is for sure: Baltimore is a much better team than Cincinnati. But doesn’t it just feel as though the stars are somewhat aligned for the Bengals this year, while the Ravens just can’t catch a break? Cedric Benson had a big day less than a month ago in Cincinnati’s win in Baltimore, and it could only get uglier this week in Cincy, especially with Haloti Ngata dealing with an ankle injury… Cincinnati 20, Baltimore 17

I’m taking the Jaguars to win and cover a 6.5-point spread against Kansas City, mainly because Larry Johnson isn’t playing for the Chiefs due to a team-mandated suspension. Just kidding -- Johnson, for all intents and purposes, is already retired. But I’m sticking with the Jags, who should come back with a vengeance after a tough loss in Tennessee… Jacksonville 24, Kansas City 13

Green Bay only giving up 9.5 points against Tampa Bay? Seems low. At home this year, the Buccaneers have been outscored by an average of over 18 points per game. The Packers will have a refreshed offensive line, with Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton set to start, and they should be hungry after a rough outing against the Vikings… Green Bay 35, Tampa Bay 10

Why do the Dolphins have to talk smack this week? Talk smack whenever you want, except when you’re about to play the Patriots. Don’t piss these guys off, man! The Pats win, but they’re dealing with too many injuries -- namely the one to left tackle Matt Light -- to blow ‘em out… New England 24, Miami 14

I’m not crazy (or maybe it’s gutsy) enough to take the Panthers in an upset over the Saints, as a few members of the NFL media have, but I do agree that the Panthers will keep it close. Carolina is a better team than its record and knows the Saints well. Thirteen points is too much… New Orleans 38, Carolina 28

The Lions still don’t know what they’ll get out of Calvin Johnson. And even with Johnson, this team simply doesn’t win on the road (they’ve been outscored by 68 points in three games away from home this season). The Seahawks are still in the NFC West race, and they know a win Sunday is crucial to staying alive… Seattle 27, Detroit 13

It’s actually remarkable how closely the Titans and 49ers match up in almost every category. That said, the Titans are going in one direction (up), while San Francisco is going in another (take a guess). The healthier Titans pull out the upset on the road… Tennessee 23, San Francisco 20

I think the Giants get back on track in a home game against the Chargers, and I think that, for once, Brandon Jacobs is the difference-maker. With Eli Manning struggling, New York’s coaching staff has to make some adjustments. It only make sense this week to run hard at San Diego’s 27th-ranked run defence… New York Giants 28, San Diego 21

I’ve been weighing the Eagles and Cowboys since early August, trying to determine which team is better. Obviously now, I don’t have a lot more clarity on that issue. I think the Eagles match up well with the Cowboys, especially when you consider what Philly’s speed can do to the Cowboys’ so-so pass defence. I’ll stick with the home team by a field goal… Philadelphia 27, Dallas 24

Baltimore made easy work of the Broncos last week, and I expect the much better Steelers to do the same thing on Monday night. The game’s in Denver and Pittsburgh’s still dealing with some injuries on defence, but I still think the Steelers cover a three-point spread… Pittsburgh 23, Denver 17

Last week: 9-4 (7-3-3 against the spread)
2009 season: 78-38 (51-51-14 against the spread)
2008 season: 161-94-1 (114-112-30 against the spread)
2007 season: 174-82 (118-105-33 against the spread)

Greg Sansone, Tim Micallef and “The Bear” toss some picks your way, too…

Oh, and don’t forget about Cam Stewart’s thoughts…

Injury Analysis: Texans could face depleted Indy secondary

Brad Gagnon — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 03:59:24 GMT

The initial Week 9 injury report is out. Here are some of the highlights.

+ The Cardinals and Bears meet in what could end up being a big matchup when the two teams are fighting for playoff spots down the line. Both teams have a top receiver who's dealing with injury problems. Anquan Boldin (ankle) didn't practice Wednesday for the Cards, while Devin Hester (ankle) sat out for Chicago. Boldin's been bothered by the bad ankle since October, and may have re-aggravated the injury in Week 8. With Steve Breaston dealing with knee problems himself, Arizona needs Boldin to get healthy quickly. Hester has a sprain, but expects to play Sunday.

+ From two bad ankles to another. Haloti Ngata sprained his ankle in Baltimore's Week 8 contest with Denver. Ngata missed Wednesday's practice for the Ravens, but head coach John Harbaugh expects the big defensive tackle to be ready to go Sunday in Cincinnati. His presence is crucial for a Ravens team that had trouble slowing down Cincinnati's running game in their first meeting.

+ The Panthers have a tall task ahead of them if they want to rebound and try to make a playoff run. The win Sunday in Arizona was a start, but now Carolina travels to New Orleans to take on the 7-0 Saints. To make matters worse, the Panthers had three important players -- safety Charles Godfrey (ankle), wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad (knee) and running back Jonathan Stewart (Achilles) -- miss practice on Wednesday. Stewart is a regular "practice-misser" and should be good to go Sunday, but Muhammad and Godfrey weren't able to go in Week 8, so it doesn't look like they're progressing quickly enough to be 100 percent by Sunday.

+ Dallas-Philadelphia is clearly the game of the week, at least in my humble opinion. And I think the best part about said matchup is that injuries don't look as though they'll be a factor. Brian Westbrook (concussion) practiced fully on Wednesday for Philly, and head coach Andy Reid says he expects the starting running back to be "good to go."

+ Detroit's top two offensive players were already dealing with injuries for a few weeks, and now we can add a third to the list. Running back Kevin Smith aggravated a shoulder injury Sunday against St. Louis and missed practice Wednesday. But there's good news with the other two guys: Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson (both knees) both practices on limited bases on Wednesday. Stafford played in Week 8 and should go this week in Seattle. Johnson appears to be on track to make his return to the lineup. From a fantasy perspective, though, I'd still be a little tentative about putting him in my lineup. The Lions don't want to rush their future star into the lineup in a season that was lost long ago.

+ Aaron Rodgers has been sacked far more than any other quarterback in the game so far this year, which is a big reason why he missed practice Wednesday -- and isn't expected to return until Friday at the earliest -- thanks to two injured feet. You can blame the Green Bay offensive line for most of those sacks, but there's good news in regard to that -- left tackle Chad Clifton (ankle) practiced fully Wednesday and finally looks to be set to return to the lineup without limitations. Donald Driver (neck) and Charles Woodson (hip) also sat out practice Wednesday, but there doesn't appear to be a lot of concern for either at this point. The Packers visit the Buccaneers Sunday.

+ The Colts have been dealing with some ongoing injuries that we've been checking on pretty much every week. They're still waiting on Anthony Gonzalez (knee) and Marlin Jackson (also knee). Neither has played since the first month of the season, and neither practiced on Wednesday. It doesn`t look as though either will return this week, and Gonzalez could still be out awhile. Add Bob Sanders to the walking wounded for Indy. Sanders, who missed the first five weeks of the season with a knee injury, missed practice Wednesday with an elbow injury. Things aren't looking good for Indy's secondary, especially when you consider that cornerback Kelvin Hayden, who suffered a concussion and a knee injury in Week 8 against San Francisco, missed practice on Wednesday as well.

+ Things still aren't looking good for starting New England left tackle Matt Light. Light (knee) hasn't played since Week 5 and missed practice Wednesday, alongside Fred Taylor (ankle), Julian Edelman (forearm) and Jonathan Wilhite (illness). Meanwhile, the Pats' opponent, Miami, is getting healthier. Channing Crowder (shoulder) returned to practice Wednesday.

+ As the Chargers and Giants prepare to meet in the Manning-Rivers Bowl, each team could have some guys coming back who've been out much of the season. Nick Hardwick (ankle) practiced on a limited basis Wednesday for San Diego. The team's regular starting centre hasn't played since Week 1. Meanwhile, the Giants expect to get two significant defensive newbies -- Michael Boley (knee) and Chris Canty (calf) -- back. Both were limited in practice Wednesday. Like Hardwick, Canty hasn't played since the opener, while Boley's been out since Week 4.

+ Roddy White (knee) didn't practice Wednesday. There's no panic at this point, but it's something to keep an eye on as Atlanta prepares for the Redskins.

Early look at Week 9’s top games

Brad Gagnon — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 03:16:34 GMT

Usually I list the top five games of the week ahead to try to set the table. This week, though, we have a particularly sexy docket of games to look at. So here are the top seven. (Rankings listed come from the Goal-Line Stand’s Week 9 power rankings.)

1. Dallas Cowboys (No. 8, 5-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles (No. 7, 5-2) -- Dallas is rolling in, having not lost since Week 4. You can also argue that fewer than a handful of quarterbacks are playing better right now than Tony Romo and Donovan McNabb.

2. San Diego Chargers (No. 12, 4-3) @ New York Giants (No. 11, 5-3) -- Eli Manning and Philip Rivers will be linked for the rest of their careers, obviously. These two only play once every four years, so this one should be special. Besides, the Chargers are trying to keep within range of Denver, while the Giants try to do the same with Dallas and Philly in the NFC East.

3. Baltimore Ravens (No. 6, 4-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (No. 9, 5-2) -- The Bengals pulled out a late, somewhat lucky victory last time out against Baltimore. Now, they’re at home. A win would give Cincy a 4-0 record within the division, while pretty much guaranteeing the Bengals a position in the playoff race from now until the end of December.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 5, 5-2) @ Denver Broncos (No. 10, 6-1) -- The Broncos are 3-0 at home, having outscored Cleveland, Dallas and New England 64-33 in those three affairs.

5. Miami Dolphins (No. 13, 3-4) @ New England Patriots (No. 4, 5-2) -- The Dolphins can change the entire outlook of the AFC East with an upset victory. Last time they were in Foxborough, the Dolphins sprung the Wildcat on the Pats and won big.

6. Houston Texans (No. 16, 5-3) @ Indianapolis Colts (No. 2, 7-0) -- The Texans are finally looking like a legit playoff team. A win in Indy would send a big statement while moving Houston to within a game of the AFC South lead.

7. Arizona Cardinals (No. 18, 4-3) @ Chicago Bears (No. 19, 4-3) -- Two teams likely to be fighting for playoff positions in a few weeks.

The Ten: Week 9 (Saints and Colts still lead the way)

Brad Gagnon — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 01:52:49 GMT

1. New Orleans Saints
Last week: 1

The Saints win when they’re on, win when they’re off. The defence deserves more credit than it usually gets, but it’s obviously still about Drew Brees and the offence, which is on pace to score 624 points -- 35 more than the Patriots registered in their record-breaking 2007 campaign.

2. Indianapolis Colts
Last week: 2

Not a particularly pretty victory against San Francisco, but, like New Orleans, Indianapolis is proving that it can defeat solid teams even when it’s off its game. The only thing hurting the Colts’ case: they’ve only played one team this season that currently has a winning record.

3. Minnesota Vikings
Last week: 3

The special thing about this team is that it’s hard to find a weak spot -- even harder than it is in the case of New Orleans and Indy. The pass defence if the only “questionable” segment of the team, but with a defensive line and pass rush like that, it’s not hurting the Vikes.

4. New England Patriots
Last week: 4

A week to relax before a relatively big game against Miami. The Pats have struggled within the division this year, barely getting past Buffalo and losing to the Jets. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are 3-0 within the AFC East.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers
Last week: 6

Winners of four straight and two weeks to prepare for the Broncos. Funny how we’re at mid-season and the expected cream -- Indy, New England, Pittsburgh, Baltimore -- has risen to the top of the crop. (I think that makes sense.)

6. Baltimore Ravens
Last week: 8

You’ve gotta love what the Ravens continue to do on offence. I have a lot of confidence in Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and Derrick Mason. I think they start to make a statement now, with the Bengals, Colts and Steelers in three of the next four weeks.

7. Philadelphia Eagles
Last week: 10

With back-to-back impressive performances after that dud in Oakland, the Eagles are starting to look like the team everyone envisioned they’d be back in early August.

8. Dallas Cowboys
Last week: 11

Obvious game of the week: No. 7 Philadelphia hosts No. 8 Dallas on Sunday night. The winner becomes the mid-season favourite in the NFC East.

9. Cincinnati Bengals
Last week: 9

Huge matchup with Baltimore with two weeks of preparation. A win Sunday at home would give the Bengals the lead in the AFC North, a virtual three-game lead over the Ravens and a 4-0 record within the division.

10. Denver Broncos
Last week: 5

Well, well, well. Maybe the Broncos aren’t such a superpower after all. If they were outplayed that badly in Baltimore, what’s going to happen in prime time against Pittsburgh? The AFC West is still within San Diego’s reach.

The rest…

11. New York Giants
12. San Diego Chargers
13. Miami Dolphins
14. Green Bay Packers
15. Atlanta Falcons
16. Houston Texans
17. New York Jets
18. Arizona Cardinals
19. Chicago Bears
20. Carolina Panthers
21. San Francisco 49ers
22. Seattle Seahawks
23. Buffalo Bills
24. Jacksonville Jaguars
25. Tennessee Titans
26. Kansas City Chiefs
27. Oakland Raiders
28. Washington Redskins
29. St. Louis Rams
30. Cleveland Browns
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
32. Detroit Lions

Odds + Ends: Week 8

Brad Gagnon — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 01:04:54 GMT

Alright, the ball is now officially rolling and the Goal-Line Stand is now on track. This new strategy of “going with my gut” has paid off for two consecutive weeks. In Week 8, I went 9-4 (7-3-3 against the spread) to push my regular-season record back to a more respectable 78-38 (51-51-14 against the spread). But for the real betting downlow (or is it lowdown? I’m not cool enough to know nowadays) check out The Score’s world-famous television segment, “Odds + Ends,” each and every week. Producer Thomas Dobby keeps a close eye on the league’s bettting trends each weekend and has some additional thoughts for both of the Goal-Line Stand’s regular readers:

Not a lot of nail-biters in the NFL this past weekend, especially against the spread. But there were a few totals that came down to the wire, and games that appeared to be going one way, but somehow managed to go the other, on the odds board.

When the Dolphins and Jets hooked up three weeks ago, a 35-point fourth quarter saw it sail over the number. On Sunday, there was a similar trend. The over/under was 40, and in a 3-3 game at halftime, it looked like it would easily stay under. But the scoring came thick and fast in the third quarter. After a 55-yard Jay Feely field goal, Ted Ginn ran the ensuing kick back 100 yards to give the Dolphins a 10-6 lead. Jason Taylor then took a fumble recovery back to the end zone, Mark Sanchez ran one in, before Ginn returned his second kick of the quarter! Braylon Edwards’ touchdown late in the third put the game over, just like that. Thirty-eight points in less than nine minutes. A bitter blow for under players, and an unlikely win for over bettors.

Oakland-SanDiego was pretty much the opposite of the Dolphins-Jets game, as there were 31 points by halftime in San Diego. The total was 41.5, so over bettors only needed 11 points in the second half for the win. But all of a sudden the defences stepped up, and field goals were the name of the game. At 21-16 mid-way through the fourth, over players needed a touchdown to win. Then the Chargers marched downfield, taking almost eight minutes off the clock before stalling inside the 10, and settling for a field goal to put them up eight. Enough for them to win the game, but not enough to put it over. Nine points in the second half wins it for under players.

When Chicago turned the ball over on downs on the Cleveland 1-yard line with five minutes left, the under seemed like a lock. It was 23-6, meaning under bettors could still give 10 points and win. But, Charles Tillman made a great pick-six to make it interesting. One more meaningless touchdown, in a blowout, would put it over. And it came agonizingly close to happening. Devin Hester brought a punt to the house with under three minutes left, only for it to get called back for a hold on the Bears. They got the ball at their own 36, and ran out the clock. That flag doesn’t come, and a lot of money goes the other way, on the over, instead of the game staying under.

Who won or lost you money? What’s your bad beat story? Let Dobby and the gang know by sending an e-mail to oddsandends@thescore.com. And on Sundays, follow Greg Sansone on Twitter.

Browns take the easy road, fire Kokinis

Brad Gagnon — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 01:53:56 GMT

When the Cleveland Browns hit their bye week at 1-7, speculation ran rampant that owner Randy Lerner would make a major change and replace head coach Eric Mangini only eight games into his tenure.

Lerner did make what appears on the surface to be a major change on Monday, but it wasn’t the one most were anticipating. Instead, it was a move to simply save some face.

According to multiple reports, Lerner gave general manager George Kokinis his walking papers, which, for all intents and purposes, will not change the day-to-day operations of the franchise.

I mean seriously, how do you blame Kokinis for what’s happened to the Browns so far? How is a first-year general manager the first guy responsible for the team’s on-field struggles? He’s not, and Mangini is. But Mangini was the guy who Lerner took a chance on despite the fact that it appeared as though a total of zero other NFL teams were interested in him after he was fired by the New York Jets.

Kokinis was the least important general manager in football (edging out Miami’s Jeff Ireland for the crown). Inexplicably, he was hired by the Browns after the team hired Mangini to come on as head coach, which goes against both tradition and logic. Few believe he wielded any power over the team’s head coach, something that is bound to create problems within the power structure of the front office.

So now Lerner is sitting back on the bye week, looking at a 1-7 team that’s been outscored by the widest margin in the AFC, and he realized that he has to get proactive. The best way to do that while not making yourself look like a fool? Fire the guy no one knows in the first place.

Had Lerner fired Mangini, his reputation would’ve taken a much bigger hit for making the hire only a half-season ago.

There’s probably no way this will help Lerner come to the realization that he himself is the biggest problem. He should completely remove himself from the hiring process, because he’s shown time and time again that he doesn’t have the know-how to make such crucial decisions. Provide the money, Randy, and get the hell out of the way.

Too late for that. Now, Lerner has to find a GM who will be capable of working with the most stubborn head coach in the NFL. That means the Browns essentially have to hire someone who won’t challenge the man who is supposed to be his junior. They need Kokinis, v. 2.0.

And this is why you don’t hire in an ass-backwards way. You hire in descending order. Right now, the Browns are in a hole that they won’t be able to get out of until they admit their initial mistake and replace Mangini, who is not a good personality, not an especially good football mind, and has an awful head-coaching résumé.

Rear-View Monday: Favre's extremely strange return

Brad Gagnon — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 06:01:35 GMT

Anyone else left a bit underwhelmed by what went down Sunday in Green Bay?

I don't want to call it a disappointment, but the Super Bowl of Hype that was Brett Favre's return to Wisconsin was at least a bit anticlimactic.

It was cool, of course. But it wasn't what I though it would be. I was picturing Derek Jeter returning to Yankee Stadium in 2015 wearing a Red Sox jersey. How exactly would the bleacher creatures react to such a thing? That's what made this game so intriguing.

We've had many boo-inducing, media-enticing returns over the years (my personal favourite was Vince Carter's first game back in Toronto), but this was supposed to be the biggest we've ever had. The king of America's NFL Mecca was returning home, representing the kingdom's greatest enemy.

Picture Paul Revere joining the British army just before the Battle of Concord. Based on the hype, this was supposed to be worse.

And while the happenings at the game were interesting to watch, the sexy storyline of the week was the height of the drama. There were boos in the pre-game warmup (expected), and boos when Favre took the field and threw his first few passes (likewise), but that was pretty much the end of it.

Why? Because football is one of the world's most ultimate team sports. There are too many factors at play to focus on one guy and his grinding axe for three-plus hours. Carter's return to Toronto was one affair in an 82-game campaign, and while it would be ridiculous to compare the circumstances of Carter in Toronto wearing a Magic jersey to those of Favre's return to Green Bay in a Vikings jersey, I'm willing to say that, watching from home, there was a hell of a lot more drama in Carter's return.

The crowd was able to sit back for two and a half hours in a much more individual-based sport and boo the living hell out of their former hero every time he touched the ball.

In Green Bay on Sunday, a crucial game -- one of a precious 16 -- had to be played. People didn't have time to focus all of their time, energy and attention on one guy, no matter who it was and what scenario was at play.

And that's a good thing. No one single personality is bigger than this sport. Even the wildest circumstance imaginable -- Favre returning to his old stomping ground in a purple jersey -- wasn't enough to overtake the importance of the game itself.

Don't get me wrong, the emotions were high at Lambeau Field on Sunday -- very high. And that was justified, after what Favre brought to the Packers franchise for 16 years. But I feel as though most fans' emotions were misplaced. They held mock funerals for the guy, and booed him to no end, but what exactly did Favre do to them? Remember, it was No. 4 who was virtually locked out of the team's complex. He didn't turn in his key to the city, but the team (and by extension the city) changed the locks.

It was the team that turned its back on Favre, not the other way around. And while Favre rightly stated after the game that Packers fans are and were Packers fans first and Favre fans second (and now not at all), it's sort of a shame that things have come to this.

Favre understands. This is how the sporting world works. When you leave a team and return to the original city with your new team, you usually get booed, regardless of the circumstances.

Regardless of the mocking t-shirts and the anti-Favre rallies, I'm pretty sure most Packers fans will always love Favre. They love him and they miss him. But they had to release their emotions one way or another on Sunday. Booing was the only way to do it while still supporting the team they love first and foremost.

TWITTER ZONE: THOUGHTS IN 25 WORDS OR LESS

+ After allowing just 71 points in their first five games (all wins), the Giants have given up 112 in their last three (all losses). So it can't be just Eli Manning's heel. (I'm looking at you, Kenny Phillips.)

+ With that said:

Manning pre-injury: 4 GAMES (4-0), 63%, 8 TD, 2 INT, 1039 YDS, 104 RATING

Manning post-injury: 4 GAMES (1-3), 52%, 5 TD, 6 INT, 816 YDS, 68 RATING

+ I continue to believe that Tony Sparano is the least mentally competent head coach in football. I see examples every time I watch Miami play.

+ From now until the end of time, defensive players will try to recover fumbles by scooping them up on the run. They'll never learn, will they?

+ One of the most enjoyable parts of the Wildcat is finding out on the run what hand these running backs and wide receivers are. Who knew both Ronnie Brown and Joseph Addai are lefties....

+ It's remarkably easy to dislike Bart Scott.

+ In the Jaguars-Titans game Sunday, Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew had four rushing touchdowns of 50 yards or more. Until today, that had never happened in NFL history.

+ Derek Anderson has been Cleveland's starter for five games. He's completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes in four.

+ Dallas-Philadelphia is suddenly the matchup in the NFC East next Sunday. The winner is the favourite the rest of the way.

+ So much for that promising start in San Francisco. The 49ers haven't won since Week 4, and they've scored a total of 45 points in that span.

+ I’m giving the Cardinals a mulligan. That was baffling.

AWARDS

Player of the week: Chris Johnson -- I'm not convinced he's even mediocre in the "consistency" category, but two more deep shots against Jacksonville have me convinced he's football's best home run hitter. But he doesn't do a lot when he doesn't take you deep. He's football's Adam Dunn.

Team of the week: Philadelphia Eagles -- The Michael Vick signing looks like a publicity stunt or just a simple failure, but maybe -- just maybe -- the pressure Vick's presence has applied on Donovan McNabb is just right. Philly made the Giants look foolish on Sunday, and McNabb had another career-ish day.

Surprise player of the week: Ted Ginn -- Sometimes they'll go out right when everyone's losing faith in them and totally redeem themselves. That's what Ginn did Sunday, with two touchdown runs of 100 yards or more in Miami's second win against the Jets in less than a month. Ginn became the first player in NFL history to record two 100-yard scores in the same game, strutting out of Sparano's doghouse in the process.

Surprise team of the week: Carolina Panthers -- What the hell was that? Don't look now, but Carolina's back in the wild-card race.

SETTING THE PACE

+ Bills rookie safety Jairus Byrd is tearing it up. Byrd has seven picks in his last four games and is now on pace to intercept 14 passes this season. That would tie Night Train Lane's single-season record, set back in 1952.

+ Vikings defensive end Jared Allen is on pace to record 21 sacks, which would bring him just a sack and a half short of Michael Strahan's single-season record. It feels as though this record's in jeopardy every year at around this time.

IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY...

MVP: Peyton Manning -- Even Tony Dungy said it on NBC Sunday night: Manning had an "off day" against San Francisco. Yeah, 347 yards ... must be rough.

Offensive player of the year: Manning

Defensive player of the year: Allen -- He's not getting the credit Favre, Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin are, but the guy's really ballin' out right now.

Offensive rookie of the year: Harvin -- Thanks mainly to his special-teams efforts, he's running away with it.

Defensive rookie of the year: Brian Cushing -- Tough to keep Byrd out of this spot, but Cushing has been delivering consistently week in and week out for the Texans. He's doing everything: a sack and a half, two interceptions, two forced fumbles and 36 tackles. Oh, plus a safety.

Coach of the year: Josh McDaniels -- The loss hurts, but he's still doing the "a lot with a little" thing better than anyone else in the league.

Sunday Picks: A week of close games

Brad Gagnon — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 21:06:51 GMT

Going with my gut seemed to help last week, so I’ll go down the same path in Week 8. (Although I had a burrito for lunch, so who knows what it’s trying to tell me.)

I’m really not all that worried about Reggie Wayne’s knee injury. First, there’s a chance he’ll still play. Second, there’s a chance Anthony Gonzalez will make his return. And third, I love what Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon bring to the table. But I do think there’s a chance Indy has to resort to running it more than usual, which isn’t ideal against San Francisco’s sixth-ranked run defence. Under these circumstances, I feel as though 12 points is just too much… Indianapolis 30, San Francisco 23

I get the feeling Eli Manning is having more trouble with his heel than the team is letting on. How else can we explain his sudden drop-off in production? Sure, the Giants’ schedule has also hit its toughest spot, but there’s no relief this week either. The Philadelphia defence looked very good Monday night in Washington. I expect the Eagles to keep Manning and the New York offence in check all day Sunday… Philadelphia 23, New York Giants 20

Click here for Cam Stewart’s take on Giants-Eagles.

Sure, Ryan Fitzpatrick is far from a Pro Bowler, but the guy seems to get the job done, doesn’t he? Befitting a Harvard grad, he makes good decisions, and is riding a personal four-game winning streak. I still think the Texans pull out the victory at Ralph Wilson Stadium, but I’m warning you now that I have literally no confidence in this pick… Houston 21, Buffalo 20

Click here for Cam Stewart’s take on Texans-Bills.

The Ravens are the kind of team that plays best when they’re desperate. And while Josh McDaniels has his Broncos playing desperate every week, Ray Lewis and the rest of that Baltimore defence realize that their season is on the line Sunday. At home and coming off a bye (both teams are), the Ravens tough it out… Baltimore 17, Denver 14

Click here for Cam Stewart’s take on Broncos-Ravens.

I can’t use last week’s mess in Cincinnati as a factor in trying to pick a winner in the Bears-Browns games. Cleveland just does not stand a chance against any team in football right now (outside of St. Louis, Detroit and Tampa), and a 13-point spread isn’t enough for a Bears team looking to set the record straight after a Week 7 debacle… Chicago 31, Cleveland 10

Click here for Cam Stewart’s take on Browns-Bears.

The Seahawks have had two weeks to prepare for the Cowboys, but Seattle has looked awful on the road this year, whereas Dallas was very impressive at home last week against the Falcons. Dallas is finding its groove right now, and it’ll keep it going against a banged-up Seahawks team… Dallas 27, Seattle 17

A lot has changed since Miami shocked the Jets a month ago. New York is now without Kris Jenkins on defence, which should further restrict what it can do against the Wildcat. But I think Rex Ryan’s defence proved last week against Oakland that it can get the job done without the Pro Bowl defensive lineman, and I’m betting Ryan has made some serious adjustments since the initial meeting. Plus, the Jets nearly won that Monday night matchup, and they’re at home this time… New York Jets 27, Miami 24

You’ve gotta love this Rams-Lions matchup. Two teams that are 3-42 since the beginning of the 2008 season … seriously. But while the Lions have been mildly competitive this year, St. Louis isn’t really coming close. The Lions have actually only been outscored by 5.7 points per game at home this year. Meanwhile, the Rams have been shutout 28-0 and 35-0 in two of their four road games… Detroit 24, St. Louis 10

Click here for Cam Stewart’s take on Rams-Lions.

I keep wondering if I’m putting too much stock into two weeks of preparation due to bye weeks. So I did a little research, and it turns out that teams are 8-4 coming off of byes this year, with quite a few blowouts sprinkled in there. So I’m feeling good about the Titans, who’ve had two weeks to rest and prepare before their matchup with the Jaguars. Jacksonville owned the first meeting, but this one’s in Nashville. The Titans bear down and land a field-goal game… Tennessee 20, Jacksonville 17

Finally a spread that’s worth debating involving the Raiders. Sixteen points is a lot to give even Oakland, especially when you consider that the Raiders outplayed San Diego in their first meeting. I have a strong feeling the Raiders keep it close again… San Diego 27, Oakland 24

Everything seems to add up to a Packer win at home against Brett Favre and the Vikings. The Green Bay defence is really working it right now, and now the Packers have had a chance to learn from their mistakes in the first meeting. At home, and with the offensive line improving with the potential return of Chad Clifton, the Packers win a close one… Green Bay 27, Minnesota 24

Hey, maybe the Cardinals weren’t an anomaly last year. Arizona has now beaten three solid teams coming out of the bye. At home against a Panthers team that is really floundering, 10 points seems about right. (Sorry, Vegas is really thinking with me this week.)… Arizona 24, Carolina 14

The spread that really puzzles me is New Orleans giving 10.5 points to Atlanta. This is a Falcons team that aside from a couple lame ducks against New England and Dallas has been pretty, pretty, prettyyyyy, pretty good. The Saints, meanwhile, were badly outplayed in the first half last week against Miami. Sure, the second half was a different story, but New Orleans had a lot of trouble getting past the 2-4 Dolphins, so why should it be any easier against the 4-2 Falcons? I just don’t see it… New Orleans 30, Atlanta 27

Last week: 10-3 (7-4-2 against the spread)
2009 season: 69-34 (44-48-11 against the spread)
2008 season: 161-94-1 (114-112-30 against the spread)
2007 season: 174-82 (118-105-33 against the spread)

And now I turn things over to Gregory, Timothy and the man they call “The Bear”…

Young’s final chance to avoid ‘bust’ label

Brad Gagnon — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:53:32 GMT

Some guys don’t get this many shots. Vince Young should be thankful.

One of the greatest quarterbacks in college football history is in his fourth year in the NFL, 29 starts, 33 interceptions and 53 sacks under his belt.

It hasn’t been Ryan Leaf-bad or JaMarcus Russell-bad. In fact, it probably hasn’t been as bad as two fellow busts from the 2006 draft, Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart.

But it has been bad.

And while Leaf has gone down as the greatest bust in NFL history, Russell is the only current NFL player with the rap sheet to challenge him. Bush has at least found a niche in the New Orleans Saints’ offence, while Leinart has stepped aside for a potential Hall of Famer in Kurt Warner.

Young has simply been lost for two years, with his mental toughness, his mental competency and his physical attributes coming into question.

How many signs do we need that the Tennessee Titans have lost all faith in their former No. 3 overall draft pick?

The wave of football’s present and future is supposedly the Wildcat offence, but Young -- who would appear to be the prototype for Wildcat success -- has yet to be involved in a single snap from the single wing.

Kerry Collins, the greybeard whom Young lost his job to after the first week of the 2008 season, has a passer rating lower than that of Lions rookie Matthew Stafford, more interceptions than all but three starting quarterbacks and a completion percentage that only Russell himself has been able to stay below. Throw in the fact that the Titans were 0-6 and virtually out of the playoff picture (in other words, they had nothing to lose) headed into their Week 7 bye, and going to Young was a no-brainer, right?

But no. By all indications, Titans head coach Jeff Fisher still appeared tentative about making such a change. It appears as though eventual pressure from owner Bud Adams was the clincher in the debate.

As Titans linebacker Keith Bulluck said yesterday, Fisher’s hands were tied. And if they weren’t, there’s a good chance Collins would still be the starter in Tennessee, with no light at the end of a cold, sad tunnel.

And so at least this change give Titans fans a chance to see if Young can reignite the flame that burnt out following his “Pro Bowl” rookie season. It gives purpose to the second half of the season.

Fisher’s body language and the approach of the coaching staff in general indicates that the team doesn’t have a lot of faith in Young somehow doing a 180 and turning his career around. And if Young does fail over the next 10 games, there’s a good chance the Titans ditch the 26-year-old, whose salary-cap number climbs to $14 million in 2010, and look for another “quarterback of the future” in the 2010 draft.

The Ten: Week 8 (Pats swap spots with Giants)

Brad Gagnon — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 03:37:41 GMT

1. New Orleans Saints
Last week: 1

Finally facing some serious adversity after digging a 21-point hole in the first half against Miami, the Saints showed that they can also win in the most improbable of situations. This team can win in so many ways, and now we know that they can do it when the pressure’s on.

2. Indianapolis Colts
Last week: 3

As if anyone expected a different result for the Colts in St. Louis. Indy hasn’t had a challenge in some time, and the 49ers and Texans are next in line. There’s a very good chance they’re unbeaten headed into their Week 10 matchup with the Patriots.

3. Minnesota Vikings
Last week: 2

They outplayed the Colts, so I don’t want to rag on them too much for one loss, especially in Pittsburgh. Without a pick six and a fumble six in the fourth quarter, they probably win on Sunday.

4. New England Patriots
Last week: 7

That’s 94 points in two games, as New England continues to dust garbage teams. There are eight teams right now that are getting run over pretty much every week (the bottom eight teams on this list), and the Pats were lucky enough to play two in a row. Things get much tougher after the Week 8 bye.

5. Denver Broncos
Last week: 5

Are they for real? We’ll get an answer over the next two weeks -- the 6-0 Broncos have had a fortnight to prepare for Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers
Last week: 6

Headed into the bye, Pittsburgh has scored at least 27 points in four straight weeks. And as we saw in Week 7, the Steelers can create points on defence like no one else. I’m thinking they regroup with the week off and start a run at the top spot in the conference in the second half.

7. New York Giants
Last week: 4

The wheels are flying off at rapid speed. They’ve been able to fight through so many injuries early on, but the one to Kenny Phillips might do them in, long term.

8. Baltimore Ravens
Last week: 8

Idle in the rankings after being idle on the schedule. Denver this week, which means a chance to make a serious move up the list. A fourth straight loss could be crippling.

9. Cincinnati Bengals
Last week: 10

Pretty much a flawless performance against Chicago. Are the Bears that bad or are the Bengals this good? I’m starting to believe this is truly a playoff team. The defence gets the job done and a healthy Carson Palmer changes everything.

10. Philadelphia Eagles
Last week: 11

Obviously Monday night’s score doesn’t tell the whole story. Considering how abysmal Washington was, it probably should have been a hell of a lot worse than that. But one thing the Eagles have to be thrilled with is the impact Will Witherspoon made in his first game in midnight green.

The rest…

11. Dallas Cowboys
12. Green Bay Packers
13. Atlanta Falcons
14. San Diego Chargers
15. Miami Dolphins
16. New York Jets
17. Arizona Cardinals
18. Chicago Bears
19. Houston Texans
20. San Francisco 49ers
21. Buffalo Bills
22. Carolina Panthers
23. Seattle Seahawks
24. Jacksonville Jaguars
25. Kansas City Chiefs
26. Oakland Raiders
27. Washington Redskins
28. Cleveland Browns
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. St. Louis Rams
31. Tennessee Titans
32. Detroit Lions

Odds + Ends: Week 7

Brad Gagnon — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 02:07:18 GMT

I decided to go with my gut when making my Week 7 picks, and while the improvements were miniscule, they did exist. I was 10-3 straight up and 7-4-2 against the spread last weekend. I didn’t exactly go out on many limbs and most of the big favourites came through. If you’re a regular Score viewer, you probably know all about our “Odds + Ends” segment, which takes a look at the weekend that was, with a betting spin. Producer Thomas Dobby hand-delivered these additional thoughts:

Week 7 in the NFL was not for the faint of heart, as bettors were put through the ringer in many of the Sunday games. Huge comebacks and crazy finishes were on display around the league, but let’s have a look at what stood out the most from a betting perspective.

There was a bit of everything in the Vikings-Steelers game, where the Vikes, at 6-0, went to kickoff as a 6-point underdog.

Down three midway through the fourth quarter, the Vikings drove into Steelers territory, and looked poised to grab the go-ahead score. But after a tripping penalty negated a touchdown, Brett Favre fumbled, and LaMarr Woodley took it back all the way to the house for a 10-point Steelers lead. Crushing for Vikings backers, but the emotions swung again moments later as Percy Harvin took the ensuing kickoff the distance, again bringing the Vikes within three.

The rollercoaster of emotions rolled on, though, as once again the Vikes were driving, and a turnover went the other way …all the way… for a sickening touchdown that saw the Steelers cover the spread. An amazing Houdini act for anyone with the Steelers, but I’m sure they’d take it. I would have.

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There wasn’t any excitement on the spread in the one-sided Colts-Rams game, but there was plenty of intrigue in terms of the over/under. The number was 45, and those with the under were sitting pretty with the score at 28-6 with under four minutes left. But a pass interference penalty on third and 16 kept a Colts drive alive, which they capped with a touchdown.

After the Rams went four-and-out on their next possession, Indy could seemingly bleed out the clock. But, on their first play from scrimmage, the Colts’ Chad Simpson broke one down the sidelines for a 31-yard score, putting the game over. Again, on a personal note, had this one under.

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Two big comebacks made for intriguing and nervous watching on Sunday. In Houston, as a 3-point favourite, the Texans let a 21-0 lead slip, and had to hang on to the 24-21 win over the 49ers. A push on either side, which, as they say, is like kissing your sister. But a stinging hit for those who bet Houston.

Meanwhile in Miami, after trailing 24-3, the Saints, favoured by six points, miraculously came back to cover. A 36-point second half saw them stay perfect against the spread this season, but not before a big-time sweat.

The Dolphins, down 12, drove the length of the field in the last minute, only to see the game end on an offensive penalty. Because they had no timeouts, there was a 10-second run-off as Miami was on the eight-yard line.

Who won or lost you money? What’s your bad beat story? Let Dobby and the gang know by sending an e-mail to oddsandends@thescore.com. And on Sundays, follow Greg Sansone on Twitter.

Sunday Picks: Bears over Bengals

Brad Gagnon — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 02:22:52 GMT

Okay, I’m trying desperately to get off the schneid, so I’m mixing it up this week. Not looking in depth at stats and details, but sticking with my gut. No research -- I’m just going to use what’s in my noggin, which eats football information seven days a week. In other words, do not use these picks. Anyhow, it should be kind of fun going through the process this way.

Green Bay favoured by only seven and a half points in Cleveland? The Packers shut out the Lions last week, and the Browns are worse. Cleveland’s decent performance against Pittsburgh is probably inflating the perception that it can compete… Green Bay 30, Cleveland 10

It feels as though San Francisco and Houston are going in opposite directions. The Texans were extremely impressive last week in Cincinnati, while the 49ers were blown out at home against Atlanta. Houston returns home now, and a field goal might not be enough… Houston 30, San Francisco 20

Indianapolis got healthier in the bye, and now the Colts have had two weeks to prepare for one of the worst three teams in football. The spread I’m looking at is 13.5, which is just a gift… Indianapolis 38, St. Louis 12

Fifteen-point spreads are a little less comfortable. That’s what the Patriots have on their hands as they prepare to play Tampa Bay in London, England (weird to type). Again, no research allowed here, but I’m pretty sure the Buccaneers have been blown out by every “good’ team they’ve played (Giants, Eagles, Cowboys). I think the Pats take it by three scores… New England 37, Tampa Bay 20

I feel as though the Vikings are just happy to still be unbeaten, merely hanging on on a week-to-week basis. I think they’re a very good team, but I don’t think they’re as good as advertised by their record. I think the opposite is the case for the Steelers, who know how to get back on track in a hurry when their backs are against the wall. At home, and with Minnesota’s top corner dealing with injury problems, Pittsburgh comes through… Pittsburgh 30, Minnesota 23

Speaking of backs being against the wall, the Chargers are already feeling some serious pressure in the AFC West, having fallen behind Denver by four games. ~~At home~~ on the road, they make easy work of the Chiefs… San Diego 27, Kansas City 14

Bills-Panthers is a tough one because both teams are coming off of victories to sort of atone for very rough starts. At the end of the day, though, the Panthers are healthier, more talented and at home… Carolina 20, Buffalo 13

Is Oakland for real, or was last week’s performance against Philadelphia an anomaly? The Raiders have a chance to prove they’re the playoff team Richard Seymour says they are in another home test, this time against a very good Jets defence. I think Rex Ryan gets his guys in line in time for a season-saving victory, but I don’t think it comes easy… New York Jets 20, Oakland 17

Also had a lot of trouble getting a first impression on Atlanta-Dallas. I’ve thought from Day 1 that the Cowboys are a much better team than the Falcons, but Dallas continues to disappoint in situations like these, while the Falcons continue to surprise. I’m still going to go with the ‘Boys, who I think will exploit Atlanta’s banged-up secondary at Jerry Jones’ Taj Mahal… Dallas 26, Atlanta 23

The Bears hung in there without Pisa Tinoisamoa earlier in the season, so I’m not making too much of his season-ending injury. I think Antwan Odom’s injury will affect the Bengals more than Tinoisamoa’s will hurt the Bears. Chicago has been a bit off kilter so far, while the Bengals have played above their heads. That changes Sunday… Chicago 24, Cincinnati 17

The Dolphins have become a popular upset pick this week and I can sort of understand why. A lot of folks are still doubting New Orleans’ defence, and the Wildcat can be quite the test. I still think New Orleans hangs on, but six and a half points is a lot… New Orleans 30, Miami 27

The Giants simply don’t lose at home. In fact, I’m thinking they were 8-0 at home last year (damn, wish I could do research), and I know they haven’t lost at Giants Stadium in 2009. And New York is slowly getting healthier. They win a high-scoring game against Arizona Sunday night… New York Giants 41, Arizona 34

Philadelphia’s only a seven-point favourite Monday night in Washington. I’m guessing there are two reasons why it’s only a one-score spread: 1) Philly’s shocking loss Week 6 in Oakland, and 2) the game’s in Washington, where the Redskins usually put up a fight, even when they’re bad. But they haven’t been this bad in a long time, and the Eagles will be hungry to get things back on track… Philadelphia 31, Washington 10

Last week: 6-8 (5-6-3 against the spread)
2009 season: 59-31 (37-44-9 against the spread)
2008 season: 161-94-1 (114-112-30 against the spread)
2007 season: 174-82 (118-105-33 against the spread)

Injury Analysis: Vikes need Winfield

Brad Gagnon — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 02:15:31 GMT

The initial Week 7 injury report is out. Here’s what you need to know….

+ The Giants are used to having starters miss practice every week. There was no exception on Wednesday, as Michael Boley (knee), Chris Canty (calf) and Aaron Ross (hamstring) all sat out. Ross, who’s the team’s No. 2 corner, hasn’t played all season (in hindsight, the Giants are wishing they’d placed him on the PUP list). And while not having quality players like those didn’t hurt the G-Men over the first five weeks of the season, it made a difference last week in New Orleans. The good news for New York is that its opponent, Arizona, is also dealing with injuries to three starters. Anquan Boldin (ankle) sat out practice Wednesday, while Steve Breaston (knee) and Chris “Beanie” Wells (hip) were limited. Since the Cards’ big injuries are on offence and the Giants’ are on defence, there’s a chance they’ll sort of cross each other out. (Yes, that’s simplistic, but this is all sort of a crapshoot anyway, isn’t it?)

+ Ryan Fitzpatrick will likely start for the Bills this week. Trent Edwards (concussion) missed practice on Wednesday and apparently wasn’t even at the Bills’ facility. Giving a Harvard grad an important job is usually a good thing -- unless that job is starting quarterback for an NFL team. Sorry, Ryan. Buffalo’s still pretty banged up headed into its Week 7 matchup with Carolina: starting defensive backs Terrence McGee (knee) and Donte Whitner (ankle) missed practice on Wednesday.

+ The Bears defence continues to struggle with injuries. Pisa Tinoisamoa’s return from a knee injury was short-lived. He’s done for the year after re-injuring himself Sunday night in Atlanta. But Chicago’s opponent, Cincinnati, is also down a significant defensive starter, as Antwan Odom (Achilles) is also done for the season. Odom had eight sacks in the first six weeks. Good news for the Bengals offence: rookie offensive tackle Andre Smith (foot) practiced Wednesday and looks as though he’ll make his career debut against Chicago.

+ A flu bug has hit the Browns. Instead of trying to explain everything, I’m just going to copy and paste the list of players who missed practice sent to me from the NFL: WR Joshua Cribbs (knee), K Phil Dawson (right calf), RB Jerome Harrison (illness), TE Steve Heiden (knee), C Alex Mack (illness), CB Anthony Madison (illness), S Brodney Pool (illness), DT Shaun Rogers (illness, foot), TE Robert Royal (illness, hamstring, finger), WR Chansi Stuckey (illness), LB Jason Trusnik (illness), RB Lawrence Vickers (illness), DE Corey Williams (illness), LB Kamerion Wimbley (illness). The guys to keep an eye on: Cribbs, Mack, Rogers, Stuckey, Wimbley. Twenty-three of the 53 Cleveland players are on the injury report.

+ Bob Sanders (knee) isn’t even on the Indianapolis injury report and will almost certainly make his season debut Sunday in St. Louis. And the news gets better for Indy’s secondary, as starting corner Kelvin Hayden (hamstring) also isn’t included on the injury report. Hayden has missed the team’s last three games. They’ll have to wait on cornerback Marlin Jackson (knee), who missed practice Wednesday and doesn’t expect to play until November. But it is just the Rams on the other end, and St. Louis hasn’t won in a very long time (over one calendar year!). To boot, Donnie Avery (hip) didn’t practice Wednesday for St. Louis.

+ Antoine Winfield has the big injury in the sexiest game of the week. The Vikings’ top cornerback injured his foot against Baltimore and missed Wednesday’s practice. There’s a decent chance Winfield will be doubtful when designations come out on Friday, which could help Pittsburgh’s passing game continue to be superb.

+ Want the Bizarro Seahawks? Look no further than Miami. The Dolphins have a big, fat “No Injuries to Report” on this week’s Wednesday practice report. How insane is that in October? And Miami was just as healthy last year, too. I’m sure some of it is just the team playing things close to the vest (maybe too close, actually) but it’s still scary (and surely frustrating for some) to see how healthy the Dolphins have been over the last season and a half.

+ The Patriots have a few injuries of note as they prep to pummel Tampa in London, England. With Sammy Morris (knee) and Fred Taylor (ankle) both missing Wednesday’s practice, Laurence Maroney should once again shoulder the majority of the load across the pond. Meanwhile, left tackle Matt Light (knee) continues to sit out, so Dusseldorf, Germany’s own Sebastian Vollmer will likely get another start. That sure didn’t hurt the Pats against Tennessee, so I wouldn’t sweat it against the Buccaneers.

+ Brian Cushing has once again found himself on Houston’s injury report with a foot injury. Cushing didn’t practice Wednesday, but he didn’t practice last Wednesday either … four days before going out and forcing three turnovers against Cincinnati. The NFL’s top rookie six weeks into the season should be good to go Sunday against San Francisco.

The Ten: Week 7 (Saints not even cutting it close)

Brad Gagnon — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 01:23:00 GMT

1. New Orleans Saints
Last week: 1

The Saints haven’t just won all five games they’ve played, but they’ve won all five by 10 or more points. And it’s not like it’s been a particularly weak schedule -- their opponents are 14-14. And I’m keeping an eye on that defence, which is still ranked ninth in the league.

2. Minnesota Vikings
Last week: 4

They played well but got lucky against Baltimore. Now, they’ll need to step it up with a very tough two-week road trip to Pittsburgh and Green Bay. If they’re still unbeaten in two weeks, the Vikes pretty much have to be on top of this list.

3. Indianapolis Colts
Last week: 3

A week of rest for the high-flying Colts, who stay in the three hole in advance of a relatively light run over the next three weeks: Rams, 49ers, Texans.

4. New York Giants
Last week: 2

They need to get healthy. Playing shorthanded doesn’t kill relatively deep teams against opponents like Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Oakland, but they need their best players for games against New Orleans (last week’s debacle), Philadelphia (Week 8), San Diego (Week 9), Atlanta (Week 11), Denver (Week 12), Dallas (Week 13), Philly again (Week 14), and Minnesota (Week 17). Boy, nice schedule.

5. Denver Broncos
Last week: 9

What a way to go into a bye week. I guess I should finally admit that this defence appears to be for real, led by the suddenly unstoppable Elvis Dumervil and his league-leading 10 sacks. They were criticized for beating up on bad teams early, but now it’s clear that it wasn’t just about the easy schedule. It’s hard to believe that Denver has itself a four-game lead in the AFC West.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers
Last week: 6

Something’s still not quite right, even as Troy Polamalu re-joins the lineup. My biggest concern is the turnovers. The Steelers already have 11 of them in six games. They had only 19 last season.

7. New England Patriots
Last week: 10

Scary to think that Tom Brady didn’t start to hit his stride before New England’s unprecedented 59-0 victory against Tennessee, and yet the Pats still have the NFL’s fourth-ranked offence. The annual sweeps-week tilt with Indy is only four weeks away. At that point, I expect the Colts to be 8-0 and the Pats, who are currently 4-2, to be 6-2.

8. Baltimore Ravens
Last week: 8

Three straight losses on the final possession. That’s tough luck, and it’s why the 3-3 Ravens remain in the eighth spot. I expect them to finally turn it around against Denver after their bye week, but the Broncos keep proving me wrong, so who knows….

9. Atlanta Falcons
Last week: 11

I’m getting ripped in the comments for not giving enough love to the Falcons, who have very quietly put together a 4-1 start. I’m not convinced the defence is better than average, especially with the loss of starting cornerback Brian Williams, but the offence has still been pretty solid. When you consider that Michael Turner still hasn’t really gotten on track (and believe he will), this has to be a playoff team.

10. Cincinnati Bengals
Last week: 5

They still have the AFC North lead and a 4-2 record despite the fact they’ve given up as many points as they’ve scored. Are they for real? I can’t figure it out.

The rest…

11. Philadelphia Eagles
12. Dallas Cowboys
13. Green Bay Packers
14. Miami Dolphins
15. San Diego Chargers
16. Chicago Bears
17. Arizona Cardinals
18. New York Jets
19. San Francisco 49ers
20. Houston Texans
21. Carolina Panthers
22. Buffalo Bills
23. Seattle Seahawks
24. Jacksonville Jaguars
25. Kansas City Chiefs
26. Oakland Raiders
27. Washington Redskins
28. Cleveland Browns
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. St. Louis Rams
31. Tennessee Titans
32. Detroit Lions