Global Security Monitor

The Gemini Gambit: Iran and North Korea against the US

2013-04-07T02:20:00.001-03:00

Two members of the much-maligned "Axis of Evil" - Iran and North Korea - are in cohoots together with the support of China to take maximum advantage of a weak US president at home and abroad.

Beijing's proxy war has never ceased against Washington. Too bad Washington does not realize this fact.

As GSM opined long ago, the US would do NOTHING to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons under the overmatched President Barak Obama.

Iran-North Korea Axis
So, Iran plays rope-a-dope in Kazakhstan in yet another successful attempt to buy time to complete its nuclear program.

North Korea threatens the US and South Korea with nuclear war.

These news items are not isolated.

The Iran-North Korea partnership is long-standing and is even closer today.

Evil twins Iran and North Korea are in a Gemini Gambit with China in full support to inflict the most damage possible on a cowardly US president and a USA in deep decline.

The future of Asia is not only in jeopardy, but a stable world order is as well.
*** Peace through strength.

#Eurozone Crisis Buffets #France

2012-07-16T07:00:00.000-03:00

#France is the next #Spain as Euroland continues to dissolve.

The second eurozone economy is making all the wrong moves to resist the austerity wave imposed by reality on the failed welfare states across the Old Continent.

The fledgling Socialist Hollande administration is cruising for an economic bruising as it pretends all is well.

Eurozone Crisis Hitting Paris
The jolting mass firing of 8,000 Peugeot-Citroen car manufacturing employees last week, including the complete shuttering of its Aulnay plant, is emblematic of the eurozone crisis hitting France.

The bad news follows the firing of 6,000 last year as its prime market, Europe, continues to see sales slump.

Peugot is operating at a loss - 7% so far this year - and will have to find a way to be profitable or go out of business.

As the Euroland continues to contract - economically, socially, and politically - more French companies could face tough choices between economic viability and drastic cost cutting.

French Economic Malaise
Things are not going well for France to say the least, economically. The country seems locked into a timewarp as the global economy passes it by.

France is not competitive in the world ranking 18th out of the top 20 countries, trailing neighbors Switzerland, Germany, and even Belgium, according to the World Economic Forum survey.

L'Hexagone ranks 67th in the world for economic freedom, nestled between Cape Verde and Portugal, but way behind Spain at 36th.

Its public unions are dinosaurs (and across the EU) and obstacles to real economic progress in an interdependent global economy where pro-business policies, low tax rates, and dynamism are the coins of the realm.

The post-industrial or Information Economy seems to be in the country's rearview mirror.

As an aside, French manufacturing is slumping in 2012 and 2.2% less than last year.

The sclerotic 0% economic "growth" for the year so far is yet another red flag of the storm brewing ahead. The country is not making any money.

A study computes French GDP to debt ratio far worse than official numbers of 85%.

Plus, the Holland administration faces a €33 billion gap if France wants to keep its commitments to cut the deficit to 3% of GDP by the end 2013.

Isn't this how Greece, Portugal, Ireland, and Spain got into trouble?

Hiking taxes to the hilt and reversing course on retirement reform (one thing Sarkozy got right) is not a promising start from the technocrat living in L'Élysée.

If the French do not demand more freedom, any escape from their suicidal economic downward spiral is a moot point.

Stubborn Socialists
French President François Hollande calls the Peugot-Citroen firings as "unacceptable" and must be "renegotiated."

What precisely is there to negotiate? A company that is not making money cannot keep paying its employees.

While it is natural for the leader of the country to not welcome such bad news, the State should resist meddling.

It would set a bad precedent for the remainder of Hollande's term and worse send a signal to international markets already skittish about the Euroland.

The markets are watching you, M. Hollande.

Surely someone in your administration knows enough capitalist economics to advise against acting hastily.

Socialism killing Euroland
At the end of the day, the core economic philosophy of the Euroland is a demonstrable failure - socialism.

Frankly, the EU states cannot afford their welfare states where leisure is more highly valued than productivity, smart (capitalist) economics, and competitiveness.

The structural organization of the national economies traps the states to escape the spirling death trap.

As seen over the weekend in Madrid and in the streets of Athens, any reform is met with cries. So many Europeans are wed to the welfare state, any change - drastic or otherwise - is too politically painful.

However, there is also the math problem - the EU welfare states cannot afford their commitments and socialism produces little or no economic growth to pay the bills.

Spain's hiking the IVA from 18 to 21% will not bring in the promised revenue; it is absolutely nonsensical to raise taxes when the economy is in deep decline, Sr. Rajoy.

Something has to give whether the dependent classes created by the cradle-to-grave society and their political patrons like it or not.

The alternative is a complete collapse of the civil society over national insolvency.

Conclusion
The lack of capitalism is killing the Euroland.

The harsh reality for (unionized) employees and politicians is that businesses do not exist to create jobs, provide vacations, health care or other benefits.

Businesses do exist to make profit and provide a healthy return to stockholders.

Until aggressive reforms that are pro-economic freedom - cutting tax rates to spur demand - are enacted the socialist economic superstructure will continue to sink the Eurloand.

Thus, France needs more freedom to pursue profit to avoid its own eventual bailout.

Unfortunately, in the last presidential and legislative elections, the anti-capitalist Socialists (besides their own personal fortunes) were swept into power - the exact opposite of what France needed as the effects of the Euroland storm threaten to throttle the region's second economic engine.

*** Peace through strength.

#Putin's Snarling #Russia

2012-06-14T10:42:00.000-03:00

Newly-elected former KGB Colonel Vladimir Putin is once again in total control of Russia and his global adversaries had better wake up.

A snarling Russia is back after a short hibernation under former puppet president Dmitry Medvedev.

From the brutal crackdown of the opposition at home to shielding Iran and Syria from international outrage abroad, Putin aims to use Moscow's limited influence where it can do the most damage to international peace.

The US Administration of President Obama now must see clearly what Russia has always been - a worthy adversary to stir up trouble on the global chessboard.

The last thing the Syrian Crisis needed was a Russian shipment of attack helicopters to help the Asad Regime in Damascus to cut down the opposition coalition.

Future of Global Security
The Syrian Conflict has always been more than an internal squabble between a disaffected opposition and an illegtimate authortitarian in another Mid East sandbox.

It is clearly Russia, China, and Iran vs. the US and its Western allies about the future of global security.

Russia of course needs to demonstrate fealty to its client states and deliver goods - it's good business for Moscow. Putin has brazenly laid down his marker.

Conclusion
The US-Russia-China squareoff over Syria is a window into the current state of international relations.

As from the beginning, the current US Administration is overmatched to defend freedom and its interests abroad.

The decline of the US, presided happily over by the current Administration, could not come at a worse time.

*** Peace through strength.

#Chavez officially stands for president again

2012-06-12T10:19:00.000-03:00

Yesterday Mr. Chavez, the current "president" of #Venezuela, rode in a caravan of vehicles from Miraflores Palace to the National Election Council to officially register as a candidate for the October elections.

The ailing leader expects another electoral victory despite a spirited campaign by opposition candidate, Henrique Capriles.

It has always been surprising that Mr. Chavez plays electoral politics when bretheren Castro of Cuba, Correa of Ecuador, and Morales of Bolivia have effectively neutered any opposition.

That is not to say Mr. Chavez has not moved to limit freedom; he assuredly has.

The Fix is In
However, he knows the score at the end of the day. There is no way he will ever lose an election.

The presidential election campaign in Venezuela is a show. Capriles or any opposition candidate will not be allowed to win.

In the end, in sham-democracies like Venezuela, he who has the guns and has stacked the bureaucracy with party hacks always seems to win.

*** Peace through strength.

#EU Dream Turns to Nightmare

2012-06-12T01:06:00.004-03:00

The #eurozone house of cards is quaking - again.

The $125 billion non-rescue rescue of Spanish banks is just another chapter in the eurozone thriller as worry now shifts to Italy.

Three headlines wrap up the current eurozone crisis:

EU Floats Worst-Case Plans for Greek Euro
Worry for Italy Quickly Replaces Relief for Spain
Esta vez, Europa está de verdad al borde del precipicio
(This time Europe is truly on the precipice)

Does Germany have enough faux currency - euros - to save the faux union, EU?

Doubtful.

*** Peace through strength.

#France, au contraire

2012-06-09T14:30:00.000-03:00

#Socialist Party top functionary-turned-President of France, François Hollande, expects sweeping gains in parliamentary elections tomorrow (Sunday) while Europe braces for the consequences.

The French Left is feeling its oats after more than a decade in the wildnerness.

Its ascendency to power could not come at a worse time for L'Hexagone and the house of cards known as the European Union (EU).

Undercutting NATO
On top of the four French soldiers killed this weekend, Hollande vows to cut-and-run from Afghanistan in July. The speedy retreat is set for the end of the year.

NATO's credibility will be in tatters by the time its operations wrap up in the SW Asian country.

Undercutting Germany-led EU
The "Mer-kozy" relationship between Paris and Berlin is ruptured.

The twin engines of the pan-European vision from the beginning at the signing of the Treaty of Rome in 1957, France and Germany cannot be farther apart than now.

Hollande wants to outspend Sarkozy against the tide of imposed austerity on EU states as the entire project is called into question because of its rocky economic foundation - socialism. It has never worked wherever tried.

The split between France and Germany on the future of the EU dooms the already teetering house of cards.

Undercutting France
A political hack without any policy experience, Hollande continues to steer France to the fiscal cliff.

As southern neighbor Spain nears yet another bank bailout for the eurozone, Hollande intrepidly pushes ahead with risky economic schemes.

He has already fulfilled a campaign commitment to rollback the retirement age to 60 from 62, nixing a moderate Sarkozy policy switch. This, when the socialist states of the EU cannot afford their welfare states now.

Madame "35 Hours Work Week" Martine Aubry, a party rival and new Socialist leader, and with estimable credentials in capitalist economics, urges higher taxes because the French do not pay enough now.

The classic Socialist economic elixir comes to France (welcomed by the voters no doubt) as capital flight speeds up before the brewing storm wrecks the country.

Conclusion
Elections have consequences.

The French grew tired of the Right and its antics.

While the Socialists were a minority for over a decade for good reason - voilá - they are back. There is no change from the confiscatory slow-growth policies from the past.

President Hollande is ill-equipped to lead L'Hexagone and those around him even less.

National politics still dictate the course of the EU despite the hopes of its founders of a pan-European project of "one for all and all for one."

Now finally reality bites the quixotic EU plan. "Everyone for himself" is now the slogan as long as German taxpayers do not tire of subsidizing their neighbors.

France's swing to the Left will only hasten the EU's demise.

*** Peace through strength.

Worrying Turn in #Syria Crisis

2012-06-09T13:14:00.000-03:00

The UN's point man on the Syrian Crisis, the former chief of the ineffectual organization, Kofi Annan, wants Iran to enter the talks to resolve the situation.

This is the problem with muddle-headed multilaterialism. Not every country at the table is an equal or shares the same values or interests as the others.

The least common demoninator always prevails and as massacres of civilians climb, is that really what the world needs now?

Wrong Move on Iran
Iran is a terrorist state and an international pariah that does not have a clean hands with the UN or any other legitimate international organization.

Because of Iran, the Asad Regime has been able to hold onto power so far. With its partners Russia and China, inserting Iran into the equation only complicates the vision of a post-Asad Syria.

Iran, China, and Russia do not want a post-Asad Syria!

Mr. Annan, always an amiable dupe for the forces of wrong in global conflicts, again shows his poor understanding of global politics, at best.

Iran-Syria-Hizbollah Axis
Western interests are to break the Iran-Syria-Hizbollah Axis of Evil.

Syria is the fulcrum and without "The Lion" Asad at least one terrorist mafia is broken and lives are spared.

Of course that is of no concern for Mr. Annan who sees no difference in any side and continues to play the role of a menace on the world stage.

Asad Must Go
The former London-based pediatrician-turned-dictator after Papa Asad passed no longer has any legitimacy, if ever.

His army is in rebellion. The grip on perennial puppet-state Lebanon is tenuous.

That does not automatically mean the "Syrian Opposition" is the best-equipped to replace him.

One of the dominant players lurking is the Muslim Brotherhood.

Conclusion
While the constantly changing Kaleidescope that is Mid Eastern politics is not so easily understood, the merciless deaths of so many Syrian civilians caught between warring factions is.

A humanitarian crisis underlies the struggle at the "peace talks" among world powers to find a way out of the cul-de-sac that is the Syrian Crisis.

Iran is part of the problem, not part of solution. Surely even Mr. Annan can appreciate that point.

*** Peace through strength.

#Iran Fools Again

2012-06-02T13:11:00.000-03:00

The slow sleep walk that is Iran's not-so-secret quest for a militarized nuclear program, and the ICBMs to deliver warheads to Tel Aviv, Paris or Washington continues unabated and worse, unopposed.

Iran balked again in the latest failed talks - a pattern that the Western powers just never seem to learn their hard lesson - Iran's nuclear program is non-negotiable.

While the Western powers, beset by economic malaise and domestic politics, continue to dither and allow China and Russia to protect Tehran in their proxy war against the West, Iran marches forward now with enough highly-enriched uranium for probably five bombs.

Obstacles: China and Russia
The white elephant in the room of the entire Iran Imbroglio is the proxy war between the Western powers and China and Russia.

It is evident in the showdown over Syria, too.
Like Tehran, Damascus is a friendly client-state and does the bidding for Moscow and Beijing in the region.

Is that bidding for good or for evil?

Both Syria and Iran are two cancers in the Mid East region as state sponsors of terrorism and regional goals incompatible with a lasting peace.

US Fecklessness
Add US fecklessness under the current Obama Administration and you have a region on the brink.

The unceremonious abandonment of Mubarak, a long-time ally in Egypt, has only heightened regional tensions and boosted radical Islamic influence. The repercussions are only now manifesting.

The forces against freedom - across the world - have been given a gift for four years with the current administration in Washington that sees the US more of a threat to world peace than its sworn enemies.

Nuclear Iran
It has been the position of GSM for awhile that Iran has already joined the nuclear club. The talks are folly and only allow Tehran to consolidate its gains.

It is also unlikely the negative regime in Tehran will altruisticly decide to cast away its chip on the world chessboard. Is there any example in world history for this to happen?

The time period of 2001-2012 will be remembered when Iran was allowed to achieve nuclear primacy - unopposed - and a nuclear nightmare began for those who truly want peace and security in a dangerous world.

*** Peace through strength.

Now, the Bell Tolls for #Spain

2012-03-29T18:14:00.001-03:00

After Greece, now #Spain?

The Choice
Which is it, Espãna?

Courage to leave the (demonstrable) failed policies and practices in the past or continue the road to destitution?

Tired, Failed Unionists
Look at the tired, worn faces of the unionists leading the la huelga nacional (national strike) across Spain today.

With the highest unemployment rates in the EU, doesn't Spain need to work more, not less? Just a thought.

Toxo and Méndez (CC OO and UGT respectively) pontificated today as if they have the real power in the country, not the Rajoy government which was just popularly elected in a landslide last November.

In fact, their old ways are out of step with a country facing financial ruin.

Their inflexibility, insularity, and inutility are barriers to saving Spain.

Narrow interests should not be allowed to hobble the economy of such a beautiful country.

The days of leftist union leaders demanding more from the taxypayers at whatever expense are over in Europe.

Are the unionists happy to be part of the problem rather than part of the solution?

Is Spain "Europe's biggest problem?"

Le Monde, France's leftist newspaper, singled out Spain in a frontpage headline as Europe's biggest problem (after Greece, I suppose).

The Rajoy government may not succeed in liberalizing the Spanish economy.

If it does not, Spain is likely the "next Greece."

Her youth - the future - are already abandoning the country because of the sky-high unemployment rate.

Worse, there is no hope, at least in the short run, for any positive change.

Conclusion
Spaniards have a choice.

They can support the leftists in the street smashing windows of businesses and whose policies only exacerbated Spain's finances under the Socialists and thus are responsible for the current economic morass.

Or they can give the Rajoy government a chance and give their country a chance to avoid a repeat of Greece.

Or watch the entire European Union unravel around them.
***

#Spain heads for #union strike, 29 March

2012-03-09T12:05:00.000-03:00

So, at a time when Spain needs to work more, be more productive, and deliver value to global markets, here come the public unions calling for a general strike on 29 March.

Are the unionistas tone deaf ?

Out of touch public unions
Any change to the status quo that may require the rigid unions to make concessions is automatically deemed non-negotiable.

Maybe the union bosses have not noticed - the status quo is not sustainable. Spain is sinking along with the entire faux "European Union."

And what happens when there is no business, no economy, to pay workers?

How will the greedy public union bosses earn their high salaries and privileges then?

Rajoy's Popular Party was swept into office last November after the disastrous failure of the Socialists under Zapatero to rejuvenate Spain - to save the democracy.

Should not the unionistas be wary of obstructing reform that is desperately needed?

EU Technocrats Arrive
Spain is not going to be the "next Greece" and grovel to Brussels.

Rajoy will not inflict more damage to the Spanish economy to please EU technocrats.

His defiance to not meet deficit targets for 2012 has drawn the ire of Brussels and now EU bean counters will descend on Spain to "verify" the deficit numbers.

Post-Greece EU
It appears that the Greek debt swap will work in the short term.

Now Portugal, Spain, and Italy are under greater scrutiny to strengthen their economies.

The eurozone crisis persists and will persist until there is more economic freedom to compete in the global market and less intrusion from Brussels and self-interested unionistas.

***

#Spain Losing Its Future/#España pierde el futuro

2012-03-05T11:38:00.002-03:00

While Greece steals most of the headlines in the Euro-mess, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Belgium, and yes, Spain are suffering dearly too.

Spain is where I really learned Spanish in 2002. Ten years later I can see from afar the destruction after the Socialist reign under Zapatero which coincided lamtentably with the current Euro-mess.

Whether Rajoy can steer the ship back onto course remains unclear. Certainly a break from Socialist orthodoxy is a good start.

Pain in Spain - Youth hit hardest
Unemployment is nearing 23% - nearly one in four Spaniards are out of a job. Spain has the highest unemployment rate in the sinking European Union.

Spain also leads the Euro-zone in youth unemployment - 42.9%!

The IMF warns that the country could possibly risk losing a generation.

Brain Drain
Its future leaders are not staying home either. More than 300,000 Spaniards have fled abroad since la crísis.

A group called JESP (jóvenes emigrantes sobradamente preparados) - well-prepared young migrants - are participating in the global economy, as reported by Cinco Días, a business daily in Madrid.

Spain has more university-educated adults between the ages of 25 and 34 than the rest of the Euro-zone. The educated are usually more motivated, restless, and refuse to settle for mediocrity.

The JESPs are engaging the global economy and leaving Spain behind - a classic brain drain which does not augur well for the future.

What future?
Spain must shake away from socialism or it will never recover, just like the EU.

The public unions need to be flexible and the leadership needs to be more reasonable by thinking more about the country than their own greed.

The economy continues to contract.
Unemployment does not abate.

Rajoy has a chance to be bold and return the country to a road to recovery, off the road to serfdom.
***

Terror, Inc. Nuclear Ambitions Unabated and Uninterrupted

2012-02-26T07:30:00.000-03:00

Terror, Inc.'s drive for nuclear primacy continues unabated and uninterrupted.

Global security officials in Western capitals appear to have acquiesced to a nuclear terror state bent on Islamic jihad.

Is Iran already nuclear?

Iran will become (if not already) a nuclear state. GSM has been confident in that fact since its 2009 Net Assessment.

The Western powers do not have the will to challenge the terror tyrants in Tehran, a fact underscored by the dovish US Obama Administration.

Aggressors throughout history have profited from the cowards in Western officialdom.

One of the mysteries about the entire Iranian ambitious push for nuclear primacy has been the timeline.

Recently analyzed Iranian telexes contained in an ISIS report again point to weaponized nuclear capability from the beginning. It seems Iran has been working on its nuclear portfolio longer than Western "experts" believe.

Just how far along are the Iranian nuclear projects?

It is absolutely folly for the top US intelligence official to doubt Iran has decided to pursue nuclear breakout.

Tehran Undeterred

Iran is serious about marrying its burgeoning nuclear capability with the ballistic missiles to deliver warheads.

Tehran is undeterred in its maniacal maneuver to eliminate the state of Israel, become a regional hegemon, and drive the US out of the Middle East.

Just as more futile sanctions were applied by the European Union (EU) and it was learned that Iran had greater capacity to enrich uranium, Tehran called for negotiations.

Time and again negotiations have been used by aggressors throughout history to consolidate their naked ambitions and to keep their enemies on the defensive.

This "rope-a-dope" strategy still advances Iran's nuclear goals while lulling the cowardly West.

Given Tehran's record deception and deceit throughout its entire nuclear escapade, really, what is there to negotiate?

Iran laughs at the West and marches steadily toward its atomic dream.

Conclusion

More pressure is now on Israel to stand down and let Iran go nuclear without a fuss.

The US Administration has an election to win and the EU is just plain powerless.

China and Russia prod on Iran in their proxy war with the US in the MidEast region. These two protectors encourage Tehran to defy the West and to do so with impunity.

It may yet be a couple of years before Iran explodes a nuclear bomb to once and for all clear up any doubts about its capability.

However, Iran will become nuclear - that is without any doubt.

The next question is how to be ready to counter a nuclear terror state in one of the world's most volatile regions.

The #EU Down for the Count

2011-07-11T19:30:00.000-03:00

GSM has assiduously followed the dizzying downward spiral of the European Union.

The fundamental weakness, above them all, is the inescapable truism that socialism is a failed economic theory.

The faux union of Western and Central European states is now naked for all to see.

The second Greek bailout has spurred the contagion across the Old Continent as Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and now Italy (the second most indebted economy in the EU) weigh on investors.

The invisible hand may be constrained, but in the end, the laws of economics cannot be denied. The market will out.

The evaporating EU cannot be saved if Spain or Italy cede to international investors and German and French taxpayers cannot cough up the euros for the collapsing EU dream.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

#Peru's Peril after #Humala's Victory

2011-06-07T08:52:00.001-03:00

Evo Morales, Hugo Chavez, and Ollanta Humala

There are three consequences in and outside of Peru after the arrival of the pernicious Chavista brand when Ollanta Humala (51%) beat Keiko Fujimori (48%) for president in a nasty electoral battle last Sunday.

Peru's Peril
It is highly unfortunate Peru had to choose from two very checkered candidates for the highest office in the land.

Humala's victory is a radical departure from the centrist presidents of the recent past.

The losing candidate, Keiko Fujimori, paid the sins of her father, former president Alberto Fujimori who led Peru successfully against the terrorist group Sendero Luminoso, but at a catastrophic cost to human rights and the democracy.

He is now serving a 25-year prison sentence for corruption and crimes against humanity. Humala was given a boost from the start, but his narrow victory shows lingering sentiment for the Fujimoris and ambivalence about Humala's campaign promises.

Former lieutenant colonel Ollanta Humala's campaign saved the forced sterilization of the indigenous under Alberto Fujimori as an effective weapon in the closing days of the campaign. Just as Chavez has been able to arouse support among the indigenous in Venezuela, so Humala will in the days ahead in Peru.

In his nighttime address to his supporters at a rally in Lima (where Keiko Fujimori did her best showing), he again promised to ''transform'' the country. The Left is very serious about projects to reshape society into their own image.

Humala will probably follow Evo Morales, not Lula's path as most analysts seem to believe. He is not a moderate in any sense!

Expect moves to lift the five-year restriction for presidents in Peru, among other troubling constitutional moves. Like Chavez, Morales, and Correa of Ecuador, changing the constitution once in power is a high priority.

Once the fig leaf of legitimacy is secure at the ballot box, the destruction of the democracy can begin apace. Peru may have had its last free election.

Press freedoms will necessarily be curbed, too. When you are transforming the country, you cannot take chances.

Humala's "social inclusion" language is about wealth redistribution. Now, leftists are schooled in doing this in a number of ways. Subtly new taxes on "the rich" and corporations may be implemented.

Capital flight like in Argentina and Venezuela is of course an unavoidable consequence, but the purity to leftist ideology matters most.

The shock of direct nationalization of industry is too drastic when you are just beginning. The frog in the pot tactic works best by slowly turning up the heat until the frog is cooked.

The Peru stock index plummeted on Monday to welcome the Humala victory.

As Chavez learned, it is best to purge the military ranks as well early on. When the planned social, economic, and political chaos strikes the country, the only lever available to stop the madness is usually the generals.

Peru will rue the day, and maybe even Nobel laureate Mario Vargas Llosa as well, when Humala became president of Peru.

Democracy was not saved. On the contrary, Humala's victory imperils Peru.

The Chavista tyranny march in Latin America notches another step.

Colombia Encircled
A stubborn holdout from the Chavista Club in Latin America is Colombia, the region's oldest democracy.

Now, Colombia is fully encircled by the Chavista camp. Bogotá stands alone against Chavezism.

The longest-running civil war perpetrated by the narcoterrorist FARC rebels continues to plague Bogotá. Despite a successful concentrated campaign against the rebel inner command circle, there is no evidence of any victory in sight.

While the Colombian Supreme Court dismissed the trove of evidence found on FARC laptops, it is plainly evident Correa's Ecuador and Chavez's Venezuela provide material support to the rebels. Now Humala's Peru can help out as well.

Despite the economic disparities and poverty, Colombians fundamentally reject tyranny and for now that keeps Colombia free from the Chavistas.

US Loses Ally
Peru was one of the two or three loyal allies in a region increasingly hostile to Washington.

The Humala victory is a significant defeat for the US.

President Obama like his predecessor Bush barely recognizes how the region is almost entirely anti-American.

Washington has neither the will nor the energy to resist the Chavista Left south of its border.

The direct threat to US national security cannot be understated with plans for Iranian missiles in Venezuela.

Conclusion
Democracy is in retreat. Press freedoms are scant. The deliberate destruction of wealth and lives is a daily matter in Latin America.

The light of freedom is darkening across Latin America. Expansionist tyrants who win at the ballot box and then cannabilize their democracies are on the move.

Given the competition from the Middle East and the global economic crisis, news from Latin America is somehow deemed less important perhaps.

Tyranny is a universal problem and all should be concerned wherever it is and wherever it grows.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

EU Center Collapasing

2011-06-01T08:39:00.002-03:00

News about the EU periphery is horrible. Now its core is in trouble.

Greece may yet leave the faux European Union (EU) by the end of this year after its economy remains in dire straits. It was never a qualifying state, but at least it kept its nemesis Turkey out.

Ireland and Portugal got their multi-billion euro bailouts to keep their economies afloat by passing the bill to fellow EU partners.

Spain is wobbling, but resists any talk of a bailout.

EU Center Collapsing

Germany and France have been the two principal authors of the EU experiment since its founding with the Treaty of Rome in 1957.

The Germany-France nucleus is now unraveling.

While Sarkozy's France seems to be stable, it is Germany, the EU's largest economy (nearly $3 trillion GDP), where attention now turns in light of two recent bits of news: another devastating electoral loss by Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Party and the Cucumber Crisis.

Lights out for Germany?

In another stinging electoral defeat this year, Chancellor Merkel's party lost an election in Germany's most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia last Sunday. The CDU also lost control of its upper house of the German Parliament as a result, the Bundesrat.

Germany's bailout of Greece continues to exact a toll on Merkel's governance.

The political shift in Germany unmistakably away from the sane CDU could have a deleterious effect on an already hobbled EU going forward.

As an immediate reaction to election defeat, Merkel decided to essentially turn out the lights in Germany by ordering all nuclear plants extinguished by 2022, a concession to the wild-eyed Green Party. More energy will have to be pumped in from France and Poland at an added cost to German consumers.

Despite evidence abound, Germany will rely more upon a demonstrably failed wind power scheme to fuel the EU's largest economy. It is a very risky move for the country and the ailing EU around it.

Cucumber Crisis Crisscross

The Spanish cucumber crisis is more evidence of a Germany adrift.

An e.coli bacteria breakout in Hamburg last week has now claimed 14 lives across the country.

Fingers quickly pointed at Spain in more bad news for Madrid at a time of economic malaise.

However, now, German health authorities have backtracked leaving Spain the option to seek legal relief from the cucumber crisscross.

Spain faces a €43 million loss in wake of the false claims.

EU Death Throng

The EU continues to wither away. Now, even its core is crumbling.

While German Chancellor Merkel is expected to run for a third term in 2013, that looks less certain in the wake of the electoral defeats for her party and her unsteady leadership in face of truly difficult issues.

Berlin will regret the wind energy folly over the safety and certainty of nuclear energy.

The unwarranted highly-publicized panic to pin the cucumber crisis on Spain shows more than poor judgement. In the larger scheme, it is yet another sign of the faux EU.

A high level of mistrust runs deep between the member state capitals. The ghosts of history stalk the EU.

To undermine another national economy so recklessly is beyond excusable.

No, the EU is in its death throng. The collapse of steady and sane governance at the EU's core, Germany, marks another milestone in the organization's checkered history.

The silly Euro elitist experiment is coming to an end and not all of the overpaid and underworked bureaucrats in Brussels can put it back together again.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

#Middle East and #Latin America Heat Up, #Spain Turns Right

2011-05-22T22:56:00.000-03:00

Tyranny grows at freedom's expense in the Middle East and Latin America. Spain, suffering the ills of statism, turns to rightist Popular Party (PP) in local elections for a way out of its economic, social, and political malaise.

US Power Again Undermined by Obama Speech on Israel-Palestinian "Issue"

US President Obama, feeling his oats after killing Osama bin Laden on May 1, turned to one of the perennial chestnuts of global security - the so-called Israel-Palestinian issue.

In a speech on Thursday, while Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu was in the air on his way to Washington for talks, Mr. Obama hoped to trap his supposed ally in a public relations vise grip.

The gambit backfired spectacularly. Mr. Obama's call for a forced return of Israel to its pre-1967 borders was soundly rejected by Mr. Netanyahu and supporters of Israel.

The Jewish state's current borders were forged when its Arab neighbors ganged up for invasion and were soundly thrashed in combat, a historical fact seemingly ignored or not understood by the US president. History ignored usually is history repeated.

The public degrading of a US ally, nothing new from the current US administration, is yet another wakeup call for both friend (those remaining) and foe. Washington leans harder on its allies while refusing to confront common enemies, an amazing shift from previous administrations that understood realpolitik.

The naive leftist US president was rebuked publicly in the Oval Office on Friday by Mr. Netanyahu for all of the world's cameras to record the open dispute between supposed allies.

Mr. Obama endangered Israel's existence with his reckless and radical US policy shift despite claims to the contrary now that harsh criticism has descended upon him.

That a US president would apparently endorse the Muqawama Doctrine used by Israel's terrorist enemies is despicable.

The current US administration's anti-Israel bias is highly disturbing and provides too much comfort to the radical elements that work diligently to dissolve US power already on the wane in the Middle East and the state of Israel.

Missile Silos, ALBA Intrigue, FARC Laptop Fallout, Mel back to Honduras

Hugo Chavez's ALBA (Alternativa Bolivariana para Los Pubelos de Nuestra América) tyranny project continues unopposed across Latin America.

After reports at the end of 2010 about plans for Iran to install medium-range missiles in Venezuela, again German sources indicated this week an initiative to build missile bases on the Paraguaná Peninsula jutting out into the balmy Caribbean Sea just miles from Colombia.

Terror,Inc, racing to master the nuclear genie and build the missiles to deliver payloads of mass destruction, is not content to meddle in the Middle East region. That is why rogue regimes must be confronted and defeated. Their tentacles, once firmly rooted, continue to spread around the world.

All of this news comes on the heels of reporting about Iran's new Quiyam missile test fired by the Revolutionary Guard this week.

Iran is not the only interloper in the region (See Russian bombers post).

Now Washington, should it have the will, must confront growing Iranian influence in Latin America in alliance with Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez. The encirclement of the US and its dwindling friends in the region meshes nicely with the diabolic plans of both Tehran and Caracas to spread tyranny wherever possible.

Two other Chavez-related news bits from the region were reported this week. First, Colombia's Supreme Court ruled any evidence from the FARC laptops seized in a daring raid into Ecuador in March 2008 was inadmissible in legal proceedings.

Reyes, the number two guerrilla commander, was killed and a treasure trove of laptops and thumb drives were confiscated by the military. However, the Court cited military, not police, handling of the evidence in its harmful decision for the side of freedom in a region with less every day.

As Bogotá's El Tiempo reports today, the decision continues to cause shockwaves in and outside of Colombia. Colombian congressional representatives under investigation for collaboration with the narcoterrorist FARC and related international cases could be scuttled now. Chavez figures prominently in the FARC laptops which is not surprising given his belligerency toward democratic states.

In Cartagena, Colombia, today, Presidente Santos and the Venezuelan foreign minister welcomed the current presidente of Honduras, Porfirio Lobo, and the legally-ousted Chavista Mel Zelaya.

In a plan cobbled together over four days, Zelaya is allowed to return to Honduras to continue his tyrannical campaign and Honduras is eligible to re-enter among the flaccid Chavista-dominated Organization of American States (OAS).

The Chavistas have not given up on adding Honduras to their notch in the belt of Latin American countries heading toward the totalitarianism of Fidel's Cuba and Chavez's Venezuela: Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and soon-to-be Peru.

The return of Zelaya supposedly heals the wounds he opened with his failed gambit to force Honduras into the ALBA orbit. It is quite the opposite and the consequences for freedom-loving Honduras will become quickly apparent.

Spain's Socialists Smashed in Local Elections - "una histórica victoria" (historic victory)

Spaniards went to the polls in droves seeking relief from the pain of the incumbent Socialist Party's disastrous misrule and the country's tattered economy which threatens to deepen the eurocrisis gripping the Continent.

According to the Socialist fave, El País, the rightist opposition PP (Partido Popular) swept 10 of 13 regions and gained 10 points on the incumbent Socialists in local elections.

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero was always the accidental president of Spain elected as a chaotic reaction to the PP's mishandling of the macabre 11-M Islamic terror attacks at the Atocha train station in 2004 on the eve of the presidential election.

The witless political apparatchik, Zapatero, was never qualified to lead the country and adding the failed policies of the Euro-Socialists, the electoral carnage today results.

Socialism threatens to undermine the entire European Union. After Portugal's €78 billion bailout this week by the IMF, eyes turn to "sick" Spain.

Presidente Zapatero should resign immediately given his Party's sound rejection by Spaniards across the country.

Stay tuned for the clearest insights into global security issues as developments warrant!

***

The EU Reckoning

2011-05-15T20:01:00.000-03:00

An article in El País today echos GSM's analysis of the eurozone crisis: 5 Reasons Why Europe is Cracking.

The "crack" is more like a gaping hole, but the realization is the same.

The confection of the European Union is not durable enough to survive the ghosts of history, mutual suspicions, and above all the failed economic system of socialism, the crux of the EU's problems.

One of our 6 Strategic Questions for 2010 was: "What next for the EU?"

Here are some other comments we have made:

Bloomberg - EU disintegration?
A Grim Future for the EU - Report

**If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

Eurozone nearing end?

2011-05-08T00:16:00.000-03:00

Charlemagne, the medieval Frankish king, is credited as the first uniter of Europe.

Napoleon and later Hitler also tried by force to forge one Europe united under one man. In the end, the tyrants went down to defeat.

The dream was resurrected by the peaceful Treaty of Rome of 1957, the beginnings of the European Union (EU) today.

The EU went on to embellish statism as its chief economic system.

There is the root cause for the EU's angst.

Sooner than later, money tends to dry up from overregulation, numerous onerous taxes, nanny-state interference in every aspect of life, and the disincentives built into the economy that reward sloth, not hard work.

EU Pain
The rapid expansion of Europe from the Urals to the Atlantic did not come without a price.

Despite the haunting past, the European elite pressed forward with their idea of a common European market, and a common European currency in an attempt to forge a faux European identity.

The north-south split it appears in the end trumps the east-west division in the EU.

Namely, Greece, Portugal, and Spain threaten to shred the EU false construction from papier-mache. The fragile southern economies as feared are a drag on the richer northern economies of France and Germany, and to a certain extent, the United Kingdom (not in the European Monetary Union).

All eyes on Greece
Rumors of Greece's exit from the EU scheme drubbed the euro and forced a hasty meeting of EU ministers in Luxembourg last Friday to discuss restructuring Athen's debt.

Should Greece drop the euro, like a pebble in water, it would ripple from the Adriatic to the Atlantic. The eurozone house of cards would likely collapse.

But, is there enough money and willpower left in the EU to prop up Athens?

Will EU taxpayers happily pony up to save the united Europe dream of which they were barely consulted?

Or (more likely) are the days numbered for the EU as we currently know it? Charlemagne would not be proud.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

It's the ideology, President Obama

2011-05-07T22:52:00.002-03:00

The United States struck a major, but not definitive, blow in its global war against Islamic fascist terrorism by killing the titular head of Al Qaeda, Osama Bin Laden (OBL).

While US President Obama has deservedly received criticism for his handling of the war on terror, his kudos for approving of the daring early morning raid deep in Pakistan are meritorious as well.

Ideology, not personality
One must remember however that OBL represented a perverse ideology. While his death was retributive justice for 9/11, Islamic fascism and corrupt reading of the Koran are key elements of the terror fight.

Another element, the schism inside Islam, trumps both of the above. However, no outsider is able to much influence the course of the world's largest and fastest growing religion.

The paroxysm of violence associated with Islamic fascism can be countered and that should be the true focus of freedom lovers around the world.

Al Qaeda's tentacles
Al Qaeda's challenge has changed since 2001. Its branch in the Arabian peninsula (AQAP) threatens to topple President Saleh in Yemen. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) haunts France. AQIM totally denies the recent terrorist attack on a popular cafe for tourists in Marrakesh. Suspicions linger.

While the operational capability for another 9/11 is not certain, Al Qaeda has adapted to the pressure from the US and its allies.

No Silver Bullet
That is why taking down the deserving OBL is not a silver bullet despite high praise for the operation.

Vigilance against terrorism is a never ending battle.

As the IRA told former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher after its failed Brighton hotel blast in 1984: You have to be lucky all the time; we only have to be lucky once.

The war on Islamic terrorism rages on many fronts. Its pernicious ideology must be defeated.

More blows against Al Qaeda, Hamas, Hizbullah and their friends must be executed before that happens.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

Chavista Tyranny on the March

2011-05-07T22:27:00.005-03:00

Chavista tyranny is on the march in Latin America.

Peru
Peru's embryonic democracy hangs in the balance.

Chavista Ollanta Humala, donning a business suit and tie and nice smile, but without overt Chavez endorsement this time unlike in the 2006 presidential race, appears bound for victory in the the second round on June 15. It is more probable given the poor choices for Peruvians.

The wolf in sheep's clothing may fool his fellow countrymen, but outside observers have seen this act before in Bolivia, almost in Honduras, and in Ecuador.

Electing those with dictatorial inclinations and a rabid ideology, already dooming Venezuela (and has already sunk Cuba), is usually not a good idea at all. He promises to reform the Peruvian constitution, just like Evo Morales in Bolivia, Rafael Correa in Ecuador, and almost like Mel Zelaya in Honduras.

Funny, the ''reform'' always seems to leave the Chavista in power for life.

The certain death of freedom in Peru and loss of another US ally in the region are one election away.

Ecuador
The elected Chavista dictators have not all had smooth roads to totalitarianism.

From aiding and abetting (including border refuge) Colombian FARC narcoterrorists, to roughing up his opposition, Rafael Correa's reign in Quito has had its fits and starts.

His melodramatic ''coup'' lie last year only follows the Chavista playbook that opponents are always out to assassinate them so this provides an automatic excuse to take away more freedom from the people.

Today, Correa's Diez Preguntas (10 Questions) apparently won a 57% SÍ from the people.

This is one of the most disheartening aspects of the Chavista agenda - winning at the ballot box that which could never be won as rebels in the field not so long ago.

The ''consulta nacional'' (national referendum) is a complete assault on the Ecuadoran constitution, market economics, and freedom.

The ''10 Questions" (en español) are laced with Chavista-charged language including attacks on private enterprise, ''reform of the judicial system'' especially detentions (...hmmm) and of course ''excesses'' by the press or telling the truth.

A free and independent (yes, that means privately-owned) press is a big obstacle to tyrants.

From Argentina where Cristina has relentlessly raged against media giant Clarin, to Bolivia where Evo Morales cowardly hid behind a supposed anti-racism law to muzzle the press, to Venezuela where Chavista goons have violently attacked Globovision's station, it is patently obvious the press must be ''reformed'' for tyranny to advance.

In wake of Correa's victory (and defeat for the country), Ecuador will be poorer, less free, and driven into greater despair by his Chavista schemes.

Conclusion
Dark clouds rumble on Latin America's horizon.

Given the corruption charges have been dropped against Chavista Mel Zelaya (ousted in Honduras for clumsily trying what Correa and Morales have pulled off), he could return and create mischief.

Honduras successfully fought off a Chavista coup - for now.

For Argentina, Bolivia, and Ecuador, the people opened the door to their tyrants. It is too late for them.

Peru has one last choice even a poor one to escape the Chavista mantle.

Will freedom triumph over fear?
***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

#Yemen's #Saleh Sealed fate

2011-03-21T15:42:00.000-03:00

France 2 reports military officers are joining the protests in Yemen:

"L'un des principaux chefs de l'armée , le général Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, et des dizaines d'officiers ont annoncé lundi rejoindre la contestation, emboîtant le pas à des ministres, des ambassadeurs et des députés du parti au pouvoir qui ont fait défection."

"One of the key army chiefs, General Ali Moshen al-Ahmar, and a dozen officers joined the protest on Monday, following in the footsteps of ministers, ambassadors and members of the party in power who have defected."

President Saleh's options are dwindling. He has lost control of the street and now the loyalty of the military who keep him in power.

He has no choice but to seek asylum.

Aftermath of Saleh's ouster
Will Al Qaeda and Iran fill the power vacuum near the Bab el-Mandab passageway, one of the seven strategic global oil shipping chokepoints?

eia.doe.gov

The fall of Yemen will be an Islamic fascist terrorist prize.

Finally, an Iranian toehold on the Saudi peninsula does not augur well for the region, countries targeted by MidEast terrorism, and those heavily dependent on the free flow of oil.
***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

Ineffectual Libya Foray

2011-03-20T09:32:00.003-03:00

The Western powers, led presumably by France and the United Kingdom, not the United States, have made a tragic mistake entering into the Libyan civil war.

Curious Motives
While the plight of the Libyan people is cited, the West's motivations for intervention in the Libya affairs are circumspect. The Libyan people have been held captive for over 40 years by the madman in Tripoli.

Their plight is now an international issue?

Paris and London are curious leaders of the military operations against the murderous Khadafy regime.

President Sarkozy of France is still reeling from the forced resignation of his foreign minister, Alliot-Marie, in wake of the Tunisian rebellion and her scandalous links to the former dictatorship in Tunis.

Prime Minister David Cameron's UK (under former Labour PMs Blair and Brown) paved the way for the release of the so-called "Lockerbie bomber" from prison in Scotland.

The United States has been very reluctant to take any position beyond empty rhetoric against one of its presumed inveterate enemies who sponsors international terrorism.

President Barak Obam had been hailed as a "friend" by Colonel Khadafy, and gently refers to "Libya" only in his remaks on the subject, avoiding Khadafy by name.

Too little, too late
While Colonel Khadafy is not unlike other blood-soaked autocrats without any legitimacy in MENA (Middle East and North Africa), the die is cast: Benghazi, the last significant rebel holdout and capital of "Free Libya" is bound to fall back into his fold.

The half-hearted Western response is too little too late.

Beyond the landing of ground forces to stop the pro-Khadafy forces advance on Benghazi, and short of forcefully removing the Tripoli tyrant, the military maneuver will be seen as an ineffectual foray.

Post-Uprising Libya
Khadafy is likely to unleash a wave of oppression in wake of his victory.

While weakened, he will have the resources to reform his military and security apparatus to remain in power.

The Western powers will have no leverage to manage the ''mad dog'' after the attacks.

"Limited" military action does not exist in the global security lexicon. Victory is what counts.

London, Paris, and Washington are officially at war with Tripoli. The trio is now committed to the rebels and their defeat will be the defeat of the Western powers.

Khadafy's propensity for terrorism is just one worrisome result from the failed Western intervention.

The West's tragic mistake of ''intervention on the cheap'' will make Libya more dangerous and belligerent in an increasingly unstable MENA bordering on war.
***
If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

Sanction Khadafy's Libya? Get Real!

2011-02-25T09:13:00.000-03:00

Headlines today point to sanctions as the Western response to the quickly unfolding events in Libya:

Libye: Berlin pour des sanctions (Libya: Berlin for sanctions, TF1.fr)

Francia y Reino Unido reclaman a la ONU la imposición de sanciones a Libia
(France and United Kingdom ask UN for imposition of sanctions for Libya, ElPais.es)

Get real!
As the French press reports today, the third most important city in Libya, Misrata, has fallen to the rebels.

The circle is tightening around the cruel and crazy Khadafy. The battle for Tripoli is coming.

Not Sanctions, Troops
International powers may consider a peacekeeping force instead as the mercs fill the pro-Khadafy ranks.

Images of the macabre scenes in the streets, the spread of malnutrition, and general breakdown of society suggest a humanitarian disaster at the hands of a desperate despot.

Sanctions are often an excuse for doing nothing. The current country of Libya is ceasing to exist as rebel control expands.

More creative and bold ideas are needed to deal constructively with the post-Khadafy period. It is time to face that reality.

The European Union has the most the lose from the falling dominoes in North Africa from a refugee crisis.

***
If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

#Iran's Med Cruise through #Suez

2011-02-22T12:05:00.002-03:00

The on-again off-again news reports about two Iranian warships set to pass through the Suez Canal for the first time since the Revolution is a curious item.

Press accounts have been both frenetic and erroneous. Why?

Chilling Egypt-Israel Relations
Terror, Inc. decided to run the gauntlet now to exploit the chaos in the wake of Mubarak's fall from power.

The Egyptian military junta has apparently decided to allow passage of the British-built Alvand frigate and a supply ship in a purported ''training mission'' in Syria. Sure.

One can speculate about the ''supplies'' Iran brings to Syria and its puppets Lebanon, Hizbullah and Hamas.

It will mark the first time an Iranian warship ever docked at a Syrian port.

The indecisiveness of Cairo to allow the passage shows the chaos in the decision-making process in the power vacuum following the exit of Hosni Mubarak.

It would be nice to know also to what degree the junta's relationship with Israel factored into the agreement. That the ships were granted passage could show a definite chill in Egyptian-Israeli relations.

Conclusions
Flexing naval power is an age-old tactic by states to prove their bona fides as a power player.

None of Iran's moves is calming or for fostering stability.

Terror,Inc's designs to become a regional hegemon are explicit. The quest for nuclear primacy already is an unsettling issue rattling an already shaky region.

Moreover, widening Iranian and Syrian cooperation is another facet of the Iranian cruise into the Med via the Suez. Both terrorist states are aligned for the destruction of Israel.

No doubt Damascus is still fuming about the preventative strike by Israel which destroyed its budding nuclear plant in 2007.

Events in the Middle East are shifting daily, but one observation stands pat - a regional showdown is brewing among the states aimed at the Jewish state.

Whether Sunni or Shia, the Islamist fascist factions agree Israel must be vanquished and plot to realize this perverse dream.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

The #MidEast Ablaze

2011-02-22T11:30:00.000-03:00

While Global Security Monitor prepares a more thorough review of the Middle East in Mubarak's wake, we offer an interim note.

From Morocco to Af-Pak, an arc of fire consumes the old order of the Middle East.

The diverse region of Arab monarchs and despots will forever be changed by the so-called Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia. Its ramifications rattle the brittle regimes with scant legitimacy to govern.

A new Middle East is emerging with each shift in the political sands of a storied region wracked by religious warfare, economic despair, and shattered dreams of the angry youth raging in the Arab Street.

Brittle Regimes
Despite their vaunted security apparatus, secret police, and strong-arm rule, in the end, the fall of former ''President'' Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia and ''President'' Hosni Mubarak of Egypt seemed anti-climatic.

Ali, 71, and Mubarak, 82, held in check more radical elements in their respective countries as long as possible. The brittle rule of the old men was clearly out of step of the needs and desires of the Arab Street and they paid the ultimate price by those who rule by force.

The shock waves of their collapse continue to undermine regional autocrats.

Falling Dominoes
When will the last domino fall?

Morocco. Algeria. Libya. Yemen. Jordan. Bahrain. Monarchs and dictators face the ire of their people. The thirst for freedom is innate in the human soul amid a world where slavery is the norm.

Zany Colonel Khadafy of Libya appears ready to fight to the bitter end. Unlike Tunisia and Egypt, the Libyan strongman has no compunction for using the full weight of the military against the people.

The defection to Malta of the two air force colonels who refused to do so gives little relief. Reports of other planes bombing the people demonstrated yet some loyalty to the regime.

The expected return of a key opposition leader to Bahrain cannot redound positively for the rulers on the tiny oil kingdom in the Persian Gulf as a tug-of-war between Saudi Arabia and Iran plays out.

Algerian strongman Abdelaziz Bouteflika has thus far staved off the ''Egyptian effect,'' but it is yet not clear he can resist the demands from the Street for an end to his authoritarian rule and miserable living conditions.

It is difficult to determine just when the dominoes will stop falling.

Economic Consequences
MENA (Middle East and North Africa) is home to the world's largest proven oil reserves.

Like a full goblet of wine, the slightest jolt in political, economic, and social events in the region and it spills out and prices soar.

The world economic recovery is fragile pressured by the spike in commodity prices and now the surge in oil threatening to undercut any gains made.

Who fills the vacuum?

When dictators fall, the strongest and most organized opposition group has the best shot of claiming the mantle to lead.

In many cases in the regimes that are on the brink in the MENA, Islamist fascists are poised to bring order to the resulting chaos.

Speculation about ''democracy'' in countries who have only known repression and misrule is only happy talk. Only Israel has managed a Western-style pluralist government with legitimate consent of the governed.

The potential for mal-actors to exploit the power vacuums emerging in the breakdown of the previous dictatorial orders is great. GSM explores the winners and losers in its coming examination of the phenomenon occurring the region today.

Final Words
The fear of the strongman dictating the course of affairs in individual Arab countries is over. Those lucky to survive the current wave of opposition must reform or flee.

The rage in the Arab Street has steadily built among the delusions of the dysfunctional society in each of the afflicted countries.

High unemployment, squalid living conditions, and broken dreams despite the wealth of the country and/or its despotic leader fueled the wave of opposition to the older Middle East order.

Stir in a liberal dose of Islamist fascism, nuclear ambitions of Iran and Syria, a Pakistan moving closer to implosion, and a notable decline in US influence, it is not difficult for a dispassionate observer to see more upheaval in a region that plays a significant role in the world economy as long as oil is its lifeblood.

***
If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.