Fight For Iowa

The last time Iowa played in East Lansing

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Sat, 13 Oct 2012 13:36:00 +0000

Go Hawks!

Until the game is won: Part 2

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Sat, 13 Oct 2012 03:13:00 +0000

My bye week Saturday was probably a lot like other Iowa fans. I spent time with the family, let my wife go out while I watched the kids, and watched a whole lot of football.

But there was also something else that was brewing during the bye week. I was offered the opportunity to join the tremendous Iowa blogging team at Black Heart Gold Pants. I graciously accepted and if you follow BHGP closely you've probably already seen a couple of my posts over there. Just today I posted my usual Four Factor Friday post for the Michigan State game tomorrow.

I plan on keeping this site maintained for the time being. I know a lot of people use it to check the schedule, so I'll do my best to keep that up to date. I also plan to use the site to share things that aren't worthy of a 500-word write up on BHGP, but are a little more substantial than what I'd put in a tweet.

So thanks to everyone who's followed me on here and be sure to continue following me over on Black Hear Gold Pants. I'm sure it'll be lots of fun.

So maybe Greg Davis does know what he's doing

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 00:32:00 +0000

I've been hard on Greg Davis. The offense has struggled under his control and has lacked an identity. The emergence of Mark Weisman has masked a lot of the problems and has everyone feeling a lot better. But there is still a lot left to be desired.

However, I do really like Greg Davis as a speaker. Kirk Ferentz has let the coordinators talk a little bit more this year and every time Davis gives good insight into what the Iowa offense is trying to do. He's more open about schemes, terminology, etc... And you can really tell he is a coach that loves to teach the game. He talks to reporters like students. So I like that. And I'm starting to think, maybe, just maybe, he knows what he's doing.

Yesterday Phil Parker and Greg Davis held short press conferences in lieu of the typical game week Ferentz presser. Here's the full transcript[pdf] if you care to read it. Marc Morehouse has some videos if that's more your thing.

One comment by Davis really stuck out to me when asked about how he'll use Damon Bullock and Mark Weisman.

For example, if we can put what appears to be a base formation, two backs, a tight end, two wide receivers on the field, with Mark being the fullback, Damon being the tailback, and then the next play the same grouping is out there, perhaps Damon is a wide receiver, using the personnel to best fit the situation is something we're going to have to do.

Yes. YES! Exactly. This is what I have wanted Iowa to do all season. I wrote about it over the summer back when I thought Brad Rogers would be the FB/RB instead of Weisman, but the same idea applies. An except:

Iowa can use its base personnel (2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 FB, and 1 RB) and switch seamlessly between a standard I-formation and 4-wide with C.J. Fiedorowicz and Damien Bullock (assuming he's the RB) splitting out in either slot. That would leave Rogers as the lone back, likely in there to block, but at least enough of a running threat to keep the defense honest.

It actually probably works even better now with Weisman as the FB/RB since he isn't just "enough of a running threat," he is a legitimate running threat.

Davis also talked more about the no-huddle, which I hope doesn't mean more of the 3-wide shotgun garbage that's hasn't worked since the Pitt game last year. But image if he used the no-huddle with the Weisman/Bullock flexible backfield idea. The defense would be forced to adjust to very different formation and plays without substituting. Oh the possibilities.

So with his presser comments, Davis has bought a little more time before I start calling for Brian Ferentz, or somebody else, to take over at OC. There are ideas there that are exciting and smart and in the right direction. Now we just need to see it on the field.

Pic for Iowa: Weisman for Heisman

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Tue, 02 Oct 2012 11:24:00 +0000

I'm not sure who to credit for this perfectly timed photo of Mark Weisman, but H/T to @PlannedSickDays for posting it on Twitter.

Hover over the picture for full effect.

The difference a week makes

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Mon, 01 Oct 2012 17:09:00 +0000

My brother texted me at halftime and said that Iowa looked like a completely different team than last week. So very true. How Iowa can go out one week and lose to a bottom half MAC team, then come back and beat an undefeated (though not really that good) Minnesota, I'll never know. I suspect it has a lot to do with Kirk Ferentz.

The team was ready to play on Saturday and came out fast and furious. The offense pounded the ball with Weisman and even used a little trickery. The defense was stifling and forced the inexperience Max Shortell into a lot of mistakes. The game was over by half and now Iowa goes into the off week with a "W" and a pig.

Four factors in review

Get early pressure - Really the team didn't make any major changes from last week. It was one minor change that made all the difference: the defensive line played a lot better.

You don't really see it show up on the stat sheet from the D-linemen, but they were very disruptive and really allowed the back 7 to make plays. The pressure they were able to put on Shortell forced him into a lot of mistakes. As a result, Iowa had 3 interceptions including one on Minnesota's opening drive and one by Kirksey that he return for a TD.

The D-line pressure also allowed the linebackers to get free shots on the running backs or on Shortell. Hitchens and Morris both finished with double-digit tackles and each had a sack.

Keep doing what works - It looked like Iowa had game planned for Minnesota's stout defensive line and was worried that Vandenberg would be under a lot of pressure. The passing attack was back to the more horizontal offense stuff we saw the first two weeks of the season. And it was frustrating at time. There was a 3rd-and-long that Iowa read blitz (and it wasn't a blitz) where Vandenberg threw a quick pass to the sideline that went for negative yards.

But, for the most part, Greg Davis did stick with what works: Mark Weisman. He was once again dominant running behind a once again dominant offensive line. The left side really got things going with Sherff and Tobin. They were absolutely destroying guys in the first half. Weisman had over 150 yards in the first half and finished with 177.

Play smart - Iowa still had too many penalties for comfort: 8. But they weren't so much of the stupid variety. At least 4 of those were on players that were seeing their first extended action of the year. Jake Duzey (who looks like he's surpassed Derby as the "B" tight end) and Andrew Donnal (filling in for Austin Blythe) both had false starts. Donnal also was called for holding. Greg Castillo (filling in for Lowery) had a pass interference called on him. (Side note on Castillo...he's been kind of a punching bag because of his performance against ISU last year, but he played really pretty well. Minnesota tried going after him and he for the most part held his own. He even had a nice interception in the second half on a poorly thrown ball by Shortell.)

So you can kind of takes those penalties on those guys. They also didn't have much, if any, impact on the game like last week's.

Bounce back - Iowa must have gotten out any of the feeling sorry for ourselves stuff early in the week, because they looked sharp from the beginning of the game. The next step is to break this W-L-W-L pattern that has been going on since last year and string together a couple of victories.

Of the games

Player of the game - This is getting redundant. It's Mark Weisman once again. He has been an absolute beast. He's 26th in the country in rushing, but would be even high if you consider he did it in just 2 and a half games.

Play of the game - No question the flea flicker. Perfectly executed and called at the perfect time. It was a nail in the coffin type of play and it was in the first half. With the way Weisman was running the ball, Minnesota's defense crashed hard when he took the handoff, so when he flicked it back to Vandenberg, Cotton was as wide open as I've seen an Iowa receiver in a long time.

Good coaching decision of the game - I'd like to say the flea flicker, but what I liked even more was Iowa's drive to end the first half. It was an unspectacular drive...it only went 45 yards and Iowa didn't score. But it started at Iowa's own 5 yard line and there was 6:31 left in the first half. Iowa faced a 3rd-and-9 from the 6 at the beginning of the drive. They ran a draw out of shotgun to Weisman and he took it 32 yards for a first down. From there Iowa was able to run out the clock in the half. So when it looked like Minnesota might get the ball back at the end of the half in good field position, instead Iowa held on and preserved its big lead.

Season outlook

It was all doom and gloom after last week. That was probably a little premature and an overreaction. But now we shouldn't overreact in the opposite way either. This was a good win and an important win for this season. The momentum taken into the off week should help, and we finally have a trophy in the trophy case. But Iowa still has a lot of work to do. Looking at the schedule there aren't 3 obvious wins. Iowa needs to beat Indiana, then 2 of Purdue, Northwestern, and Penn State. So that's doable, but Iowa needs to take this bye week and improve.

Four Factor Friday: Minnesota

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Sat, 29 Sep 2012 02:42:00 +0000

There's only a few hours left on this Friday, but there's still time for the four factors.

Get early pressure

In each game this year the Iowa defense has come out and stayed in its base 4-3 for the opponents entire (if not entire, close enough) first drive, and the past 3 weeks those drives have ended in the opponent scoring. To Iowa's credit, they have made great halftime adjustments and have played excellend second half defense. But Iowa needs to make adjustments quicker on defense to avoid faling in a big hole like last week against CMU.

So how to do that? It starts with pressure on the quarterback. A lot of the second half adjustments have been finding ways to help the struggling defensive line get in the backfield. It would be great if Iowa didn't have to send in blitzers, but after a month of football, we've seen that they do. So don't wait until the second half to mix it up on D.

The good news for Iowa is that MarQueis Gray suffered a high ankle sprain a couple weeks ago and will likely not play and definitely not start. So in his place is the much less mobile Max Shortell. He's got a good arm and can move around in the pocket a little, but isn't going to be as big of a threat to run a sweep on 4th-and-goal from the 2 in the final minute of the game and score a game-winning TD.

Keep doing what works

Iowa's offense has been pretty successful in the 1st quarter the past couple of weeks amd they've scored on each of their 4 opening drives. A lot of this has been driven by an excellent rushing attack and a strong play-action game. It was working great last Saturday the entire game, except for the second quarter when Greg Davis decided to completely go away from it.

So, keep pounding the ball with Weisman, and keep giving Vandenberg opportunities to throw to open players off of play-action. It'll work.

Minnesota's defense is going to be better than UNI's or CMU's and probably more like ISU's. They're not going to sit back and let Weisman easily rush for 200 yards. So the passing game is going to have to show up too.

Play smart

Iowa made more dumb mistakes last weekend than I can remember a Ferentz-coached team making. Yeah, it's probably hard to keep your cool when a 300-pound dude in lying on top of you gouging at your eyes, but you still have to do it. Iowa can't afford to have dumb penalties like that tomorrow.

Iowa also needs to be sharp and on the lookout for trick plays, onside kicks, fake kicks, etc... I don't think I need to recount the times in recent history Iowa has looked foolish on these types of plays.

Bounce back

Iowa's final 6 regular season games last year went W-L-W-L-W-L. Start of the season W-L-W-L. See a pattern here? Yeah Iowa has been losing a lot of games, but importantly for tomorrow is that they have done a great job putting the losses behind them. Iowa followed up losses last year with wins over Pitt, Northwestern, Michigan, and Purdue.

Nate Kaeding wrote a nice piece for Mike Hlas on The Gazette on how Kirk Ferentz leads Iowa through stormy times. I'm a total Ferentz apologist over here, so I ate this up. I think Iowa will clean things up and play a lot better.

So, prediction time.

Prediction

This game goes a lot like the rest of this season. Both teams scores earlier and trade some points in the first half. But Iowa's defense plays better in the second half and makes Shortell uncomfortable. Weisman adds two more TDs to his resume and Iowa wins in a close one and brings home Floyd on homecoming.

Final Score: Iowa 23 - Minnesota 20

2012 BlogPoll: Week 4

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Wed, 26 Sep 2012 02:29:00 +0000

There are just 26 unbeatens (27 if you count newly FBS Texas at San Antonio) left after 4 weeks of play so somebody had to be left out. Sorry Minnesota. Outside of the top 10 or so, I'm not too confident any of these teams will stick around much longer. But at this point you can't argue with zero losses.

Last week it looked like Alabama and everyone else. But Oregon and Florida State both had nice wins and are starting to look more and more like contenders. Kansas State and Notre Dame have also impressed.

Northwestern is the only team I have ranked that is left on Iowa's schedule. If Iowa was good this year, that would be a good ting. But alas, even all the unranked teams are going to be hard.

Fight For Iowa Ballot - Week 4

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
2	Oregon Ducks	1
3	Florida St. Seminoles	1
4	LSU Tigers	-2
5	Kansas St. Wildcats	6
6	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	3
7	West Virginia Mountaineers	1
8	Georgia Bulldogs	-1
9	Ohio St. Buckeyes	3
10	Stanford Cardinal	--
11	South Carolina Gamecocks	2
12	Texas Longhorns	3
13	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	3
14	Florida Gators	--
15	Louisville Cardinals	2
16	TCU Horned Frogs	2
17	Northwestern Wildcats	2
18	Oregon St. Beavers	--
19	Ohio Bobcats	3
20	Baylor Bears	4
21	Iowa St. Cyclones	4
22	Texas Tech Red Raiders	--
23	Cincinnati Bearcats	--
24	Rutgers Scarlet Knights	--
25	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	--
Dropouts: Clemson Tigers, Oklahoma Sooners, UCLA Bruins, Arizona Wildcats

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

A strange and awful game

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Mon, 24 Sep 2012 17:04:00 +0000

Let me start off with the couple of positive things, but the rest of this post is going to be a long, long stream of negative. Mark Weisman was in beast mode for the second week in a row. He had 217 yards on 27 carries and 3 TDs. He made the right reads, broke tackles, and even showed a little speed on some of his longer carries. I'm not sure if he'll still be the starter when Bullock is back, but he's at least shown that he deserves to be a big part of this offense.

A lot of credit too, should go to the offensive line and Brad Rogers. They were creating big holes for Weisman and kept Vandenberg upright. If there was one aspect of the game that looked like B1G vs. MAC, it was Iowa's O-line against CMU's front 7. It was domination.

The offense did respond in the 4th quarter when it needed to, to first take the lead, then "seal the game" with a long Mike Meyer FG into the wind and a Weisman TD respectively. And, the defense once again made good second half adjustments. They were completely shutting down CMU until the closing minutes of the game.

A couple of others: Meyer set the Iowa record for consecutive PATs. So, congrats there. And John Wienke has become a pooch punting machine. He should have had 2 downed inside the 1.

NEGATIVE TIME

Yes, the end of the game was crazy and awful. The onside kick sequence was one of the strangest things I have ever witnessed in a football game. I don't think anyone really knew what was going on. I didn't. The refs didn't manage it well. CMU couldn't figure out how to have a holder on an onside kick. And, worst of all, Iowa didn't know what was going on either and just watched the ball roll right into the arms of Central Michigan.

But, BUT, this game was lost well before the final 50 seconds. This game never should have come down to a last-second field goal. This game was lost in the second quarter.

The identity thing again

When you think Iowa Football under Kirk Ferentz, you think conservatism; risk aversion; zone blocking; bend-but-don't-break; traditional/pro offense; etc... And while some of those things are still embedded in the program, others are wavering and the results have been disastrous.

For this game, it all started with a 4th-and-4 from CMU's 37 at the beginning of the second quarter. Old Kirk Ferentz would have punted this ball in a heartbeat and the way John Wienke has been pooch punting, CMU probably takes over inside its 10. But new, crazy KF decided to go for it. And, yes, it should have been a TD to Kevonte Martin-Manley had Vandenberg not locked on Keenan Davis pre-snap. But the point is, it was a very un-Iowa like decision and it didn't work out. So CMU takes over on downs, drives down and scores a TD to go up 17-14.

Let me also point out that during that failed drive, Iowa decided to go no-huddle, shotgun, 3-wide, and then tried to run a freaking zone-read with Weisman and Vandenberg, two players who absolutely should never try to run a zone-read. And what the hell are we doing this shotgun crap, when pounding the ball right up the gut with Weisman and play-action are working very, very well. Anyway.

Now here's where it starts getting even worse. Iowa gets the ball back, has a couple of crushing runs by Weisman, then Greg Davis decides to turn his back on a running back that had just picked up 36 yards on 3 carries, and passes 3 straight times, completing 1 on third down for -1 yards. And punt and queue another CMU drive this time for a FG.

Iowa gets the ball back with little time left in the half. After a penalty, Iowa is sitting 1st-and-16 from its own 11 with under 2:00. If that doesn't spell a Ferentz run-the-ball-and-run-out-the-clock, then I don't know what does. Greg Davis has said though, multiple times, that if Iowa has the ball and there is time left on the clock, they are going to try to score.

This was the third time in three weeks that Iowa tried to press its luck with little time left in the half. And all three have been bad. Against ISU, Vandenberg threw a pick and luckily, the Cyclones missed a FG at the end of the half. Against UNI, they tried to move the ball at the end of the half and fumbled...but luckily recovered it and the time ran out. Against CMU, Iowa was not so luckily.

So 1st-and-16. Iowa tries 3 passes and completes just 1 for 7 yards. They only take 30 second of the clock, and after a short punt by Connor Kornbrath, CMU is set up with good field position and plenty of time. After a stupid/questionable personal foul on B.J. Lowery, CMU added another FG and Iowa went into half down 2 scores instead of 1 (23-14).

So, normal Ferentz conservatism maybe means 2 fewer CMU scores in the second quarter. Iowa may have actually led at half and cruised in the second half.

And, a big reason Iowa's offense stalled in the second quarter and didn't put up a point was based on the play calling. Instead of sticking the course by pounding the ball with Weisman and using the play-action pass (which was working really, really well and worked really, really well in the second half when Iowa went back to it), Iowa spread it out and tried to out-fineness the Chippewas.

Now, I'm not saying conservatism is the answer. Making the right decision for the situation is the answer. Aggressiveness was the right call on 4th-and-1 from the 33, which Weisman took for 6. But KF and the Hawkeyes just don't look comfortable pushing the action. And everything that the program has been built on is based on KF's philosophies. Just because we have new coordinators that have more aggressive personalities, doesn't mean we should change the identity of the program. It just isn't melding together into a cohesive game plan. It isn't working.

So, ugh. Just ugh.

Four Factor Friday: Central Michigan

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Fri, 21 Sep 2012 15:06:00 +0000

Iowa can't really afford to sleep on any team at this point, but if there is a best bet on the schedule, this is probably it. Central Michigan only won 2 games over FBS opponents last year, and those were Northern Illinois and Akron. The Chippewas are coming off a bye week, but a week prior they got bulled over by Michigan State. The Chippewas defense somehow made a team that only scored 17 on Boise State and 2 against Notre Dame look like offensive juggernauts and made Andrew Maxwell look like a good QB. So this is the week that Iowa really need to get the offense on track and get everything tightened up for the B1G season.

Oh, and reminder: wear green for Greenwood if you're going to the game tomorrow.

Throw a touchdown pass

There are definite holes in Central Michigan's defense. They gave up 24 first half points to Southeast Missouri State and were trailing by 2 TDs before rallying. MSU's Maxwell went 20/31 for 275 and 2 TDs before the Spartans pulled their starters.

CMU does employ a 4-2-5 so there will be defensive backs a-plenty. Usually one of the hybrid guys lines up in the box and he probably will live there against Iowa to try to stop the run. Plus they like to blitz. So there should be some openings to pass the ball if Iowa can pick up the blitzers. And maybe this will be the week where Iowa takes advantage of its bigger TEs against a smaller secondary.

And Iowa needs to work on its passing game. It looked a lot better last week when it back to its roots and mostly just passed off of play-action. We know Vandenberg can throw TDs, he threw 25 last year, but we need to see it in the new offense if only to build a little confidence before the B1G schedule starts next week.

Finish in the red-zone

This is another that improved last week against UNI as Mark Weisman punched it in 3 times in the red-zone. However, there were 2 other drives that ended on the 1 (on for a FG, one a turnover on downs) and another drive ended short with a FG.

Iowa has pretty much used a heavy set inside the 10 and it has been okay. The TEs need to get more involved from the set on play-action. Vandenberg and Keenan Davis have also been working on the back-shoulder pass, and have come close twice. Maybe this is the week that'll click.

Get some time for the backups

May this is overly confident here, but Iowa should be able to build a big enough lead to throw in the second team towards the end of the game. I'd like the see Jake Rudock get a few snaps and some game experience. I think the second group of receivers would also benefit from the playing time.

Plus, this is probably the last and only chance for some mop up time, so hopefully Iowa can take advantage of it.

Keep it going on D and running the ball

The defense has been surprisingly good this year. They just need to keep it going. A little faster start would be nice, but that's probably the only complaint. They should be pretty comfortable going against CMU's offense. The Chippewa O didn't put up a point on MSU. They employ a more traditional offense...a lot of I-formation and pro-sets. On third down, they will spread it out a little more and go to shotgun, similar to what Iowa does.

The running back thing is just crazy at this point, and super, super interesting. Weisman is the starter, but we will probably see Michael Malloy for the first time. Greg Garmon might play after his elbow injury last week. And, welcome back Jordan Canzeri.

Because CMU is blitz happy, I expect Weisman to get the majority of the snaps for his blocking ability. But I'm excited to see what Malloy can do. He's kind of fallen under the radar since his arrest and injury as a senior in high school, but at one point, he did have a scholarship offer to Iowa.

Plus Canzeri. He looked promising last year in the bowl game. He showed a toughness that I didn't expect and a good burst. If he wasn't injured, he probably would have started the first 3 games and instead of "Weisman for Heisman," we'd all be saying, "Canzeri is the Manzeri." Or something like that. I think he has a chance to be pretty good.

Now we start looking to after the bye week when Bullock and Garmon are probably both healthy again, Malloy and Canzeri will have had some reps, and Weisman will have racked up another 3 TDs. When has Iowa ever had these kinds of options at running back? Maybe I am dreaming, but it things are actually looking up at Iowa running back.

Prediction

Similar to last week Iowa will pound the ball on offense setting up sustained drives and deadly play-action passes. The offense will finish better and the red-zone and build a quick 3 possession lead. The defense will continue its steady ways giving up yards but not many points. By the second half Iowa will start to put it into cruise and the game will finish with the second teamers running a bunch of inside zones to burn off the clock.

Final Score: Iowa 34 - Central Michigan 10

Tweet For Iowa: Wear green for Greenwood

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Wed, 19 Sep 2012 12:41:00 +0000

@fightforiowa Spread the word about the #GREENOUT Next Saturday 9/22 for former #Hawkeyes player #BRETTGREENWOOD!! facebook.com/events/2847240…
— Green For Greenwood (@Green4Greenwood) September 18, 2012

So wear green on Saturday as Iowa takes on Central Michigan. Also check out the Brett Greenwood Foundation.

2012 BlogPoll: Week 3

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Tue, 18 Sep 2012 18:56:00 +0000

Right now it's basically Alabama and everyone else. The rest of the ballot is just trying to find some order to the 30 remaining undefeated teams. Teams like Notre Dame and Standford got big boost thanks to wins over ranked foes. And teams like USC and Michigan State were eliminated for losing.

I don't feel super confident with teams like Northwestern and Iowa State on my ballot right now, but they are undefeated and have decent enough resumes. Probably starting next week there will be fewer than 25 undefeated teams, so the 1-lossers will start to creep back in.

Fight For Iowa Ballot - Week 3

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
2	LSU Tigers	1
3	Oregon Ducks	1
4	Florida St. Seminoles	2
5	Clemson Tigers	2
6	Oklahoma Sooners	-1
7	Georgia Bulldogs	1
8	West Virginia Mountaineers	3
9	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	7
10	Stanford Cardinal	9
11	Kansas St. Wildcats	1
12	Ohio St. Buckeyes	-3
13	South Carolina Gamecocks	12
14	Florida Gators	--
15	Texas Longhorns	2
16	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	5
17	Louisville Cardinals	1
18	TCU Horned Frogs	-5
19	Northwestern Wildcats	--
20	UCLA Bruins	--
21	Arizona Wildcats	--
22	Ohio Bobcats	-2
23	Cincinnati Bearcats	--
24	Baylor Bears	--
25	Iowa St. Cyclones	--
Dropouts: USC Trojans, Michigan St. Spartans, Virginia Tech Hokies, Oregon St. Beavers, Arizona St. Sun Devils, Tennessee Volunteers

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

Weisman runs all over UNI

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Mon, 17 Sep 2012 13:47:00 +0000

Two things stick out in my mind about Saturday's win over Northern Iowa. First are the injuries to Damon Bullock and Greg Garmon and the ensuing emergence of Mark Weisman. And second, that the offense looked a whole lot more like the Iowa of old than it has the two prior weeks.

The running back situation

The two injuries were awful. In the stand, with no real information, the Bullock injury was scary. Both head coaches came out on the field along with about 5 or 6 from the medical staff. Hopefully it doesn't turn out to be as bad as it looked and he doesn't miss much time. At least the bye week is coming up, which will give him an extra week, if it takes that long to recover. Ditto on the Garmon injury...it looked bad, but hopefully he'll be back soon.

Both guys were playing well before their injuries. Bullock had 77 yards on just 13 carries and looked great. He had Iowa's longest run of the year, a burst for 27 yards on Iowa's first drive of the game. Then the injury, then Garmon. Garmon only had 3 carries before he was injured, and also had a nice kickoff return. Then his injury, then Weisman.

Weisman, already had scored a 2-yard TD on Iowa's first drive, but I wasn't exactly confident when he trotted out as the running back. Boy was I wrong. He looked fantastic. He hit the hole hard and hit defenders harder. He broke more tackles than I've seen in a long time. He racked up 113 yards on 24 carries and finished with all 3 of Iowa's touchdowns. He added 33 yards through the air. It was truly an amazing performance by a walk-on fullback.

Back to its roots

Somebody must have left a copy of Ken O'Keefe's playbook on Greg Davis's desk, because the offense on Saturday looked a whole lot like the offense of years past. It was a whole lot of pounding the ball, then using that to set up some devastating play-action. There was very little of the shot-gun, horizontal passing game that hasn't been effective the first two weeks.

On the Hawkeye's first drive, they ran the ball 9 of the 10 plays. It was a whole lot of inside zone, pounding it right up the middle. The offensive line created huge holes and forced UNI's linebackers and safeties to play the run first. So play-action was there and there was a whole lot of space between the linebackers and the safeties. Kevonte Martin-Manley found that space a couple of times...the first for a 26-yard gain that led to an Iowa FG, the second for 51 yards as part of a 4-play, 70-yard touchdown drive to start the second half and essentially put the game out of reach.

So, while there were a few questionable moments of play-calling (though they could somewhat be attributed to the fact that Iowa kind of went in to automatic mode for most of the second half), but a little more creativity in the red-zone may be needed. Though the 3 TDs by Weisman were great, there were still 3 other red-zone trips that Iowa came up short. Two ended on the 1 yard line...the first Ferentz decided to kick the FG, the second he went for it and came inches short.

Four factors in review

Start fast - For the first time this year, the offense got the memo when the defense didn't. It's becoming a trend that teams are winning the toss and taking the ball, then driving down the field against Iowa's base, vanilla defense. UNI had little problem moving the ball on its first two drives and led 7-0 and 10-7 after the two respectively.

The good news though, is that the offense started fast and kept up the pace. Iowa's first 3 drives all ended in points...and really you could say first 4 if you don't count the one that they let the clock run out to end the first half.

Establish the run - I already talked about this, but yeah, Iowa established the run in a big way. Iowa finished with over 200 rushing yards on 43 attempts. They didn't even back down from the run after the top two running backs went down with injury. I thought they might limit the playbook with Weisman back there, but he was doing everything an Iowa running back is asked to do, including lining up wide in 5-wide looks.

Exploit the mismatches - I'd say Iowa did a pretty good job of this. The obvious mismatch in Iowa's favor was the offensive line against UNI's front seven. Part of Weisman's big day was the big holes he had to run through. The O-line was dominant for the first time in run blocking and pass protection. And Iowa leveraged that to move the ball down the field and score touchdowns.

A big play - Neither the defense nor the special teams came up with a score, but there were a few big plays on offense. Iowa had 4 plays over 20 yards and each set up an Iowa score.

Of the games

Player of the game - Mark Weisman was undoubtedly the player of the game. I loved the "Weisman for Heisman" chant. He looks at worst Iowa's short yardage/red-zone back and the cliche thunder to Bullock's or Garmon's or Canzeri's (yeah, don't forget about him) lightning.

Play of the game - I'm going back to Weisman with this one. Towards the end of the first half, Iowa was facing 3rd-and-15 from UNI's 25. It looked like a sure longish FG was coming. Vandenberg dropped back to pass, and dumped it down to Weisman well short of the first down. But Weisman made the first guy miss, then was hit a good 3 or 4 yards short of the first down. But he plowed his way through about 4 would be tacklers, dragged the pile another 3 or 4 yards, and gave Iowa 1st-and-goal from the 4. And though Iowa failed to punch it in from there and did ultimately settle for a FG (a fumble on first down threw the whole thing off), that play showed that Weisman was a force to be reckoned with.

Good coaching decision of the game - I liked the aggressive call to go for it on 4th-and-goal from the 1 late in the game, but I'm going to use this space to give major props to Phil Parker for yet again making great adjustments at halftime. For the third straight week, Iowa's defense dominated the second half. UNI managed to only score a FG in the second half, and that came after an abysmal 11-yard punt from Kornbrath (who actually downed his own punt). Other than that, the majority of UNI's yard came on their final drive when Iowa was in full out prevent mode.

Defensive play of the game - I'm just throwing this one in here because Anthony Hitchens needs a little more recognition. He had his second straight double-digit tackle game and is currently 4th in the nation in total tackles with 37. He had his off-moments, yes. UNI's series in the second half when they scored a FG, Hitchens got completely schooled by Panther running back David Johnson 3 or 4 times. Hitchens missed a play in the backfield and missed a couple in the open field. He made up for it though with some jarring hits and a team-leading 10 tackles. (Honorable mention goes to Joe Gaglione who had another 1.5 TFLs and a sack.)

Closing thoughts

This was still Iowa vs. Northern Iowa, a FCS school (yes, a pretty good one). Iowa was bigger, faster, stronger, and showed it. It all went pretty much according to plan and that is promising.

Iowa should have another week like this against Central Michigan and then it's on to the B1G. And, as shaky as the first 3 weeks have been for the Hawks, it has been even shakier for the conference as a whole. There's no reason to think that Iowa can't compete in the Legends. Nobody looks unbeatable right now.

Four Factor Friday: Northern Iowa

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Fri, 14 Sep 2012 13:56:00 +0000

Realistically I could put all four factors as offensive production and that would do it for the post. I'm not worried about Iowa's defense. I'm not worried about special teams. The outcome of this game lies almost solely on the offense. Though, defense or special teams could really help them out with some points. The defense came close twice against Iowa State...one on the 50 yard interception return by Morris, the second on his fumble recovery that he fell on top of instead of trying to scoop and score (which I think he had a change to do, even if it was like 80 yards or so).

Anyway, writing "FIX THE OFFENSE" over and over again isn't going to do, so here are 4 different factors.

Start fast

This applies to both sides of the ball. Last week, the defense gave up a 10-play, 75-yard drive to start that game that quickly put Iowa behind 6. Phil Parker has been making great adjustments at half and the defense has only given up one score in the second half in the first two weeks. But Iowa can't afford to get behind early and allow UNI to build their confidence (which I'm pretty sure they are already thinking they should win this game.

The offense's opening drive was its longest (77 yards) last week, but ended in a field goal. While that is acceptable, the Iowa fans aren't going to sit around happy for very long if the offense doesn't score touchdowns.

Establish the run

Iowa State pretty effectively shut down Iowa's rushing attack by keeping its very talented linebackers in the box. But we saw Iowa run the ball very well a week prior against Northern Illinois. UNI is more like NIU than ISU in its defensive front 7. Like NIU, the Panthers have smallish defensive ends. While that caused problems for Iowa in pass protection, the tackles really pushed around the small DEs when run blocking.

UNI only gave up 3.6 yards per carry against Wisconsin and they will load the box and bring down a safety, so it won't be easy. But I think Iowa can get 4+ yard per carry and maybe, just maybe, do enough on the ground to open up the pass game.

Exploit the mismatches

This kind of goes along with the "establish the run" as I think Iowa will have an advantage in the trenches. But it also speaks to the passing game. Iowa failed to take advantage of the commonly used man coverage on the outside receivers. Especially when it was 5'7" Jeremy Reeves. That should have been an auto-fade and it was often just a short pass over the middle.

The tight ends also provide mismatches all over the place, but haven't really been used to their potential. The 1st-and-goal from the 3 series was a perfect example of misuse. Iowa went 3 TEs, ran the ball twice ineffectively, then threw to the FB on a broken 3rd down play and failed to score. Play-action of first down to one of those lumbering TEs is a TD most of the time.

I also think Iowa can do more with the Zach Derby motion out wide thing they do. I think he's maybe been targeted once in the half-dozen or so times they've used it. It seems like that motion could be used for more. Why not stop it short and use him as a lead blocker? How about something crazy like a TE-sweep? At least something different.

A big play

This needs to come from somewhere. The offense, the defense, special teams, where ever. It's what I was talking about in the lead. Let's score a defensive touchdown and relieve some of the pressure on the offense. Something. Anything.

Prediction

For the third week in a row, the defense plays well and keeps UNI at bay, especially in the second half. The offense struggles again, but is able to pound the ball and generate enough push to put up 20 points.

Final Score: Iowa 20 - UNI 13

Pic for Iowa: Pro Combat Uniform

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Thu, 13 Sep 2012 01:06:00 +0000

Here is the first look at the Nike Pro Combat uniforms Iowa will be rocking against Purdue on November 10. My first impression is: not too bad. It looks distinctly Iowa and isn't too flashy. You have to wonder if these don't come out yet if Iowa would have won on Saturday.

Photo via: @SourceMediaBRay (Brian Ray)

Marc Morehouse has a bunch more pictures of the uniforms as well.

Update: Brent Yarina from BTN is saying not so fast... So we'll have to wait and see.

Piling it on

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Wed, 12 Sep 2012 17:17:00 +0000

We all get it. The Iowa offense is bad. Really, really bad. It is statistically the worst offense of any team in a BCS conference in terms of yards per play. Only Oregon State is worse in points per play. And any way you slice it, Iowa is sitting in the bottom 10% of all offenses in the country.

And yet, I keep hearing a bunch of excuses.

Execution - Of course, the coaches and players are saying it's all about execution (this is still a Kirk Ferentz coached team after all). And execution is definitely a big part of it.

Iowa had 8 drops on Saturday. That is about 1 in every 5 passes. It wasn't just one player either. Davis, Fiedorowicz, Martin-Manley, Weisman, Shumpert, Bullock, and Hillyer all had a drop. It's a team problem.

Vandenberg has had his share of execution problems too. He's lacked a little touch, made a few bad decisions, and hasn't looked all that comfortable in the pocket (which is in part due to the offensive line's pass protection, or lack thereof).

New system - Others are pointing to a new offensive coordinator and the players having to learn a new system. The receivers have also struggled making the right reads and running the right routes. Or at least aren't making the same reads as Vandenberg.

I don't have the exact numbers of teams who have a new offensive coordinator, but it has to be pretty high. Just look around the B1G. Wisconsin, Penn State, Ohio State, Illinois, and Indiana all have new coaches over the offense. Not all of those transitions are going great (some quite bad, actually)...but they are all going better than Iowa's.

We've heard the coaches and player say that they are getting the new system down in practice. Now it's time to see it on game day.

Talent - Another thing I keep hearing is about Iowa's lack of talent on offense. This too I don't really get. Is Iowa's talent really in the bottom 10% of the country? I find that pretty hard to believe. Davis and Fiedorowicz were both 4-star guys (and un-coincidentally looked like the best pass-catchers against ISU) and there is a smattering of 3-stars. The make-up of this offense isn't so different from any past Iowa offense.

What's really interesting about the talent, is the two things Greg Davis has said repeatedly since arriving in Iowa City: he's going to shape the offense around the talent he has, and that there is a lack of speed at receiver.

So what has Greg Davis done? He has completely ignored Iowa's lack of speed and tried to cram in the receivers he has, into the system he wants to run. The receiving corps is not built to catch short passes in traffic and rack up yards after the catch. Martin-Manley kind of fits that mold, but he's the only one.

Davis, Shumpert, and Hillyer are all big, strong targets that aren't speedsters and aren't particularly shifty. They aren't going to turn too many bubble screens into 10 yard gains. But they do perfectly fit the mold of receiver that Iowa has recruited and used the past 10 or so years. They fit into Ken O'Keefe's offense. And that's why we saw the most effective plays Saturday were KOK staples (like the play-action bootleg).

So yeah. Despite all his big talk about adapting an offense to the team's strength, Greg Davis is just trying to jam a square peg in to a round hole. And maybe with enough jamming and cramming that peg will start to shimmy its way down. But that needs to happen very, very quickly. The football season is short. There are only 10 games left.

Identity Crisis

What all this boils down to is that Iowa's offense has no identity. To be fair to Greg Davis, this problem didn't start with his hiring...it started one year ago as Iowa found itself down by 3 scores to Pitt. Iowa went no-huddle and had one of the biggest and best comebacks in its history. Iowa won the game, but it was the start of major problems for the Iowa offense.

Kirk Ferentz became intrigued by the no-huddle and liked it so much that he decided to use it again the next week against Louisiana Monroe. It was successful enough that he trotted it out against Penn State...and it was disastrous. So, the no-huddle was canned for the season.

When Greg Davis was hired, he told us how Kirk Ferentz wanted to use some more no-huddle. Brian Ferentz teased on Twitter about the tempo of the offense and we saw quite a bit of it during the open practices.

And now, in the first two games, we've seen Iowa employ the no-huddle at times.

Here's the big problem though. Iowa's coaches have no idea how to run a no-huddle offense.

No-huddle vs. 2-minute - The coaching staff doesn't seem to understand that a no-huddle offense doesn't have to be, and shouldn't be, the same as a 2-minute/hurry up offense. The two have different goals.

The 2-minute offense is all about playing against the game clock. The play calling is extremely important here. Passes are thrown to the sideline to get out of bounds. A throw away is better than a 4-yard run. Passing over the middle is only acceptable if it's for a first down. Because the offense is very constrained in its play calling, the defense often has the advantage here.

The no-huddle offense is about exploiting advantages the offense has over the defense with college's substitution rules and by pushing the pace of play. And the advantages are pretty large. In college, you can substitute players on offense, and if you don't huddle, then you don't have to allow time for the defense to substitute players. You can create some pretty seriously mismatches here if you catch the defense sleeping.

The tempo can also make it hard for defenses to substitute. Long drives can be tiring for the 300 pound defensive linemen, and a quick pace may keep them in the game.

The quick tempo also drastically shortens the time for the defense to make pre-snap changes to try to disguise coverages and blitzes. This either forces the defense to show their hand or play a more vanilla defense.

What Iowa does - When Iowa goes no-huddle, it just trots out its 2-minute offense. I tracked the no-huddle in week 1. Every play was run using the same personnel, and all but one from the same formation. It was all from the 311 personnel.

Davis would split out on the short side of the field. Shumpert would be out wide on the other side with KMM in the slot and Fiedorowicz at TE. Vandenberg operated from the shotgun with either Bullock or Garmon by his side. That was every play, except for a 2nd-and-short when Vandenberg lined up under center and Garmon ran in up the middle for a first down.

And the play calling was a lot of short passes to the outside, with a little bit of quick hits over the middle mixed in. It was not so different than what you'd see at the end of the game.

So basically every advantage the offense gets by running up-tempo, Iowa throws away. The one thing it does seem to help though, is to get Vandenberg in a rhythm.

Running the ball and play-action - Iowa's run game hasn't really changed between KOK and Greg Davis. It's still a lot of inside and outside zones. Most of the running plays come out of sets with a fullback or 2 tight ends. It's all pretty standard and works well enough.

In the first two games, we've seen a strong lean towards run-run-pass play calling per each set of downs when Iowa isn't in its no-huddle mode. When breaking the mold and throwing on first/second down, or using some play-action, Iowa has been pretty successful.

On first and second down Vandenberg has completed 63% of his balls and is averaging 5.6 yards per attempt. Those aren't great numbers, but compared to the 6/19 (31.6%) passing for just 35 yards (1.8 yards per attempt), and they look fantastic.

So yeah...basically Greg Davis's horizontal offense is designed to pick up 3-4 yards per play and set up about a 3rd-and-3. The problem is, Vandenberg has been awful on third down and 3 yards is just far enough that rushing isn't a great option. And then we punt.

Like oil and water - So things aren't mixing well. The two main problems: the passing scheme doesn't take advantage of the running game (and vice versa) and Iowa's no-huddle doesn't fit in with the rest of the game plan.

Iowa faces a lot of 8-man boxes against Iowa State. The Cyclones were loading up to stop the run (which worked out well for them) and often left their corners one-on-one with Iowa's wide receivers. Did Iowa try to take advantage of this? A few rare times yes, but basically no. Instead of attacking the man coverage, Iowa threw short underneath passes.

How about some play-action? Yeah, there was a little bit. It was pretty successful early in the game, but we didn't seem much of it later. Greg Davis did dial up a play-action call on 3-and-goal from the 3 that pretty much the entire world saw coming. (That play fell apart fast, but Vandenberg bought some time with his feet and found Weisman for a would-be touchdown. Dropped.)

Then there is the no-huddle stuff, where Iowa doesn't even pretend like it's going to run. Any game plan Iowa had to attack the defense in different ways, set up big plays, whatever... that's all thrown out the window when Iowa goes no-huddle and runs its 2-minute offense.

What Iowa should do

It may sound like I am against using the no-huddle, but it's really the exact opposite. I'd like Iowa to employ the no-huddle almost exclusively...just not the with the crappy 2-minute offense stuff they're using now.

Iowa should run its base offense out of the no-huddle. They actually do some nice things, which if paired with tempo and some of the other advantages of the no-huddle, would be even nicer.

I love the way Iowa uses the same personnel to show pro-sets and then move seamlessly to 5-wide (imagine if they did that with some tempo and forcing the defense to react to it quickly). Having versatile guys like Bullock and Fiedorowicz really helps. Even a player like Derby, who Greg Davis likes to motion out wide, can create mismatches.

The play-action game is really good too and Iowa disguises it pretty well. You see teams like Oregon that have these base plays that look exactly the same, but could be a rush with the running back, the quarterback, or a pass all depending on what the defense does. Now Iowa's not anywhere close to doing that, but could do some similar things with its play-action game.

All that said, I'm trying to stay optimistic and trying to give the offense the benefit of the doubt. The excuses are excuses for a reason and are at least partially valid. But Iowa plays UNI on Saturday...and won't be facing a defense nearly as good as the first two it faced. If the offense doesn't get it figured out, then maybe it'll be time to recall that Greg Davis only has a contract for 1 year that doesn't have to be extended.

Iowa holds Iowa State to 9 and still loses

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Mon, 10 Sep 2012 14:53:00 +0000

I will do my best not to turn this into a full out rant on Greg Davis and the completely inept offense. But let me make this perfectly clear, this loss lands solely on the shoulders of the offense. The defense played a hell of a game. They forced 4 turnovers, held Iowa State to 9 points, came up time and time again with their backs against the wall to give the offense a chance...only to have the offense let them down. To their credit, they didn't give up. They kept fight until the end, even though they probably knew the offense wasn't going to come through.

Four factors in review

Contain Steele Jantz - For the most part, good job defense. Jantz had only 40 total rushing yards and only picked up one third down with his feet and was stuffed for no-gain or a loss on a couple of others. And though the D didn't come up with a sack, they had 8 TFLs and pressured Jantz into a couple of bad throws.

Vertical Offense - Well, at least they tried...some. Vandenberg took a couple of shots down the field and was mostly unsuccessful. He had 2 picked off, both in hurry-up mode and both trying to be overly aggressive when conservatism might have been the right decision. He was never in-sync with Kevonte Martin-Manley and overthrew a probable TD.

The mid-range pass was a little more present. The best play Iowa ran all day was the classic Ken O'Keefe play-action bootleg where all the receivers flood one side of the field at multiple levels. Of course Vandenberg never threw it to the deepest level, but was at least not throwing it to the guy in the flat.

What was very frustrating though, was the way Iowa failed to attack ISU's cornerbacks when they were in obvious man coverage. In past years, it was almost an automatic check at the line to throw a fade over the man coverage. How many times did we see that last year with Marvin McNutt? Well it was absent Saturday as Iowa State consistently loaded the box and player cover 1 with the receivers out wide in single coverage.

And you can't blame the pass protection this week. It was fantastic. Vandenberg had all day to sit in the pocket to try to find someone open. Iowa didn't give up a sack, and Vandenberg was only even pressured a couple of time.

In the red-zone - Another fail by the offense, another win by the defense. Iowa's offense drove inside the 20 just twice and twice came away with field goals. The 3 play sequence when Iowa had 1st-and-goal from the 3 at the very end of the third quarter was atrocious. To make excuses, Iowa thought they had scored to have a review bring it back, got stuffed on first down, then had the quarter end and had to go all the way to the other end of the field...that kind of killed their momentum. But the play calling was frustrating. All three plays were from a 3 TE set...the first two where runs right up the gut that went nowhere. The third was a pass that was defended/dropped in the end zone. If Iowa wanted to pass out of a 3 TE set, they should have done it one first or second down when it would have been more of a surprise. They weren't fooling anyone on third down. If they really wanted to pass on third down, bring in some receivers and don't throw to the fullback. (To be fair to Mark Weisman, the receivers weren't doing a much better job catching the ball either...there were 8 drops on the day. His was the only drop in the end-zone tough.)

Defensively, Iowa held Iowa State to just 9 points on 5 red-zone trips. That's pretty amazing. Iowa forced three red-zone turnovers...2 fumbles and an interception. Iowa State drove inside the 10 on all 3 of those drives that ended in turnovers. The last one was particularly spectacular. Iowa State was running down the clock in the fourth quarter and a TD would have essentially put the game out of reach. On 3rd-and-goal, James Morris picked off Steele Jantz and returned the INT all the way to mid-field, setting up the offense was a chance to win. Of course, they went 4-and-out on 4 straight incompletions.

Field position - Iowa squarely lost the field position game. It felt like the entire second half Iowa was stuck getting the ball around its own 15, would go 3-and-out, punt it out to about ISU's 45, ISU would go 3-and-out, then punt it down to the 15. Rinse and repeat.

Iowa's average starting field position was its 23 yard line. Iowa State's average start was at its 36.

It wasn't so much the kicking game, punts or kick offs, that made the difference. Both Connor Kornbrath and Kirby Van Der Kamp averaged about 37 yards per punt. The difference was really Iowa's offense wasn't able to move the ball down the field what so ever to help reverse the field.

Overly aggressive

Maybe it's my risk averse nature, but I generally am okay with Kirk Ferentz's conservatism. And Saturday Iowa looked more aggressive than usual with some of its calls, and I'm guess KF would like to have those decisions back.

The first un-Ferentz thing we saw was at the end of the first half as Iowa came out in its hurry-up offense and tried to drive down the field for a quick score before half. After a successful screen pass and a short run, Iowa decided to take a shot down the field...Interception.

Luckily, Iowa State wasn't able to capitalize and missed a 54-yard field goal as the half expired. It still wasn't pretty.

The second was the play the effectively ended the game. After picking up a huge 4th down and using Damon Bullock as a receiver out the backfield, Iowa was down to ISU's 32 yard line with around a minute to go needing only a FG to tie. Mike Meyer has already hit a 50-yarder this year. So at worst, Iowa should have been looking at a makeable FG to tie. This is where Iowa usually would have played it safe...run up the middle, short pass to the sideline, that kind of thing. Instead, Vandenberg throws it down-field over the middle and has it picked off. Game over. Credit to Jake Knott for making an amazing play getting that interception, but still it shouldn't have been thrown.

Some stats

BHGP presented some statistics without comment. I'm going to comment though. Iowa's offense is by the numbers in the bottom 10 in the nation. They are 120th in yards per play ( horray horizontal offense) and 115th in points per play. 114th in scoring offense, 119th in yards per passing attempt, and on and on. Just terrible.

Make excuses if you want. There are plenty of other teams that have new offensive coordinators. Plenty of teams that lost their best running back and wide receiver from last year. Plenty of teams that aren't full of 5-star recruits. But there are only about 5 teams that have a worse offense.

The defense has a new coordinator too. They lost a ton of starters on the defensive line, and half of the secondary. They don't have a bunch of 5-star guys either. And what has the defense done? They are a top 30 defense by the numbers. 25th in yards per play. 27th in points per play, 20th in total defense, 26th in pass efficiency defense, 26th in TFLs, etc...

So just more of the defense playing well, the offense not.

Of the games

Player of the game - I don't know. Clearly nobody from the offense (though Bullock had a good game with over 100 all-purpose yards). Anthony Hitchens had a monster game with 19 tackles. I'll give the POG to James Morris though. He struggled at times and missed a couple of tackles, but still finished with 12 tackles, had a TFL, an INT, and a fumble recovery.

Play of the game - It was Morris's interception. He picked it off in the end zone, and then returned it 50 yards giving the offense its best field position of the day. They only need about 15 yards to give Meyer a shot at tying the game. As we've been over before...4 incomplete passes later and the ball was right back in ISU's hands.

Good coaching decision of the game - Hmm. I don't have a particular call in mind, but I thought for the second week in a row Phil Parker made great adjustments at half. Iowa State didn't score a second half point. The Cyclones had 7 real drives in the second half; 5 ended in punts, 1 ended in a fumble, and 1 ended in an interception.

Closing thoughts

Last week my closing thoughts were those of optimism. The defense played well and the offense moved the ball up and down the field, just failed to score touchdowns.

This week, I am not so optimistic. The defense was still solid, but the offense failed to do anything right. The good rushing attack from last week was gone as ISU loaded up the box forcing Iowa to pass. And when Iowa was forced to pass, they failed.

Sure, there were signs of promise. The offense did drive down into field goal range on their final drive and could/should/would have tied the game if not for the INT. They also showed a little life in the middle of a couple of their drives. I'm talking about stringing 2 or maybe 3 plays together in what looked a competent offense. That's about it though.

Now Iowa has two more weeks to get it together before the B1G schedule starts. And that doesn't mean I think they can just cruise to victory the next two weeks. If the offense plays like it has, then Iowa will lose to UNI and maybe to Central Michigan as well. But the B1G season is what counts, right?

2012 BlogPoll: Week 2

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Sun, 09 Sep 2012 18:21:00 +0000

Not too many big changes towards the top. I shuffled a few teams around just based on how I was feeling this week.

The big jump up this week is from Kansas State as they destroyed Miami. Virginia Tech also got a big bump as I probably had them too low last week. TCU joins the ballot...I left them off week 1 because they didn't play. Texas, Mississippi State, Oregon State, Arizona State, and Tennessee also join the fun. A couple of those are rewards for nice wins over the weekend and a couple are just because there aren't a lot of teams with top 25 type resumes yet.

All the teams that dropped out were losers on Saturday.

Fight For Iowa Ballot - Week 2

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
2	USC Trojans	--
3	LSU Tigers	--
4	Oregon Ducks	--
5	Oklahoma Sooners	1
6	Florida St. Seminoles	3
7	Clemson Tigers	-2
8	Georgia Bulldogs	-1
9	Ohio St. Buckeyes	-1
10	Michigan St. Spartans	2
11	West Virginia Mountaineers	-1
12	Kansas St. Wildcats	6
13	TCU Horned Frogs	--
14	Florida Gators	3
15	Virginia Tech Hokies	10
16	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-1
17	Texas Longhorns	--
18	Louisville Cardinals	3
19	Stanford Cardinal	1
20	Ohio Bobcats	3
21	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	--
22	Oregon St. Beavers	--
23	Arizona St. Sun Devils	--
24	Tennessee Volunteers	--
25	South Carolina Gamecocks	-6
Dropouts: Arkansas Razorbacks, Nebraska Cornhuskers, Oklahoma St. Cowboys, Wisconsin Badgers, Miami Hurricanes, Nevada Wolf Pack

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

One Thing

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Sun, 09 Sep 2012 04:08:00 +0000

Hats off to the defense. They played a hell of a game.

Pic For Iowa: New Cy-Hawk Trophy

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Fri, 07 Sep 2012 22:51:00 +0000

Here it is folks, the brand new Cy-Hawk Trophy.

It's a nice looking trophy (a little cartoonish for my taste) and most definitely a football trophy. It is certainly better than the old one, the corn family one, and the replacement that fell apart in Ames last year. And it would sure look nice in Iowa's empty trophy case.

H/T: @MurphyKeith

Four Factor Friday: Iowa State

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Fri, 07 Sep 2012 16:07:00 +0000

So hate week. This is going to be my first Iowa-Iowa State game attended in person. I'm not sure how I've never been before...maybe I'm just too cheap, but I'm excited to finally experience this game live.

Contain Steele Jantz

Thanks Captain Obvious, right? It's pretty much the same thing every week with Iowa's defense against a mobile quarterback. The defense struggled early against Northern Illinois to contain Jordan Lynch as he ran draw after draw on third downs.

But the defense adjusted and improved. In the second half, besides the 73-yard touchdown, NIU had -5 yards of offense. The defensive ends were a big part of this. Joe Gaglione had 3 TFLs, a sack, and a forced fumbled. And Dom Alvis added 2 TFLs and a sack.

So there are some reasons to be hopeful.

But last year, Jantz ran wild against the Hawks. He looked like a Heisman candidate passing for long third down conversions, running for others. He often extended plays with his feet and found receivers down-field after the coverage had broken

I had the ISU game turned on, but was glued to the Iowa game on Saturday, so didn't see much of Jantz. But from all reports, he had a very good game. He complete over 70% of his passes and averaged 6.2 yards per attempt (basically double of what Vandenberg averaged). He threw 2 touchdowns, but still had an interception (he had 11 last year before he was benched).

So the key here is to make Jantz uncomfortable and keep him in the pocket. Under pressure, he makes bad decisions that Iowa's secondary is good enough to take advantage of. And ISU's offensive line is not an impenetrable force. They gave up 4 sacks to Tulsa and as a result, Jantz finished with -9 rushing yards.

Vertical Offense

I don't even think I need to say anything about this. Iowa has to, HAS to, have some vertical element to its offense. It's not just the fact that the horizontal offense struggled mightily in the redzone and the passing game looked all around awful. Teams are going to figure out very quickly that all they need to do it load the box against the run and defend the short passing game. Also, blitz.

Iowa needs to get its pass protection figured out quickly. ISU gave up 4 sacks, but Iowa gave up 6 in week one (which is tied for last in the country). Part of the reason there was an absolute absence of a vertical passing game, was that Vandenberg just didn't have time to sit in the pocket and let plays develop. Even when he did had time, he had already been hit so many times, he got jittery, lost his footwork, and made poor decisions. As Kirk Ferentz said on Tuesday, the good news is that these are all correctable thing. And if last season was any indication, Vandenberg should look a lot more comfortable playing in Kinnick Stadium than on the road.

Maybe Greg Davis is a sly old dog and was just setting us all up with his horizontal game to pull out a ferocious vertical attack to be unleashed this week. I have my fingers crossed.

In the red-zone

Another obvious one. Iowa needs to improve. In the past Iowa has had the defense that allowed them to settle for field goals. And while the D looked great at times in the second half last week, it is still not at the point where it can carry the team. The offense needs to capitalize on opportunities to score touchdowns. At least take a freaking shot at the end-zone... Stretch plays on 3rd-and-long aren't always going to work.

Iowa State scored on 5 of 6 red-zone trips against Tulsa...4 of those scores TDs. Holding Iowa State to a FG attempt is going to be a win for the defense. ISU's kicker is JUCO kid that red-shirted last year. At Iowa Central, he was 10/13 in his two years there. Last Saturday he made his lone FG attempt from 30 yards. So yeah...basically he's unproven.

And, if you go back to last year in the third overtime, Iowa failed to get a TD and settled for a FG. Iowa State was able to punch it in. And that was that.

Field position

The play of the game last weekend for Iowa was the John Wienke punt downed inside the 1 by Greg Castillo. It led to a 3-and-out by the defense, a short punt by NIU, an 18-yard return by Micah Hyde, and finally the game winning TD by Damon Bullock.

Iowa State was on the opposite end of a similar situation. In the first quarter against Tulsa, the Golden Hurricanes downed a punt on the 3 and on the next play stuffed ISU running back Jeff Woody in the end zone for a safety. They followed that up with a TD thanks to the short field to take a 10-7 lead.

Iowa State had some good punting of its own as well. Kirby Van Der Kamp punted 9 times and averaged 43 yards per kick. Five of his punts were downed inside the 20 and he had two go over 50 yards. For his efforts, he was named the Big 12 special team player of the week.

For Iowa, Connor Kornbrath punted 3 times and averaged 41 yards per kick. The most encouraging thing was that his first collegiate punt was a 51-yarder that he booted standing in Iowa's end zone. It was a good start.

So slight advantage ISU on punting. Iowa should have the advantage on kickoffs though. Meyer, after only having 4 touchbacks all year, had 3 on Saturday. Those extra 5 yards really helped. On ISU's 7 kickoffs (though on was from the 20 following the safety), they only had 2 go for touchbacks. Plus they gave up an average of 28 yards per return. They also gave up a 60 yard return in the first quarter. Iowa gave up just 20 yards per return with a long of 28 yards.

Prediction

I think everyone else is probably with me on this one...this is the most worried I've been of an Iowa State win in Kinnick in a very long time. But I also think Iowa will get the job done. The friendly confines of Kinnick will lend itself to a much improved passing day by Vandenberg. The running game will continue to be solid and I think Garmon will have a bigger impact this week. The offense will turn a couple of the FGs into TDs and put up more than the 18 lousy points last week.

The defense will do its part as well. Steele Jantz will get his yards on the ground and through the air, but the D will do just enough to keep him rattled and will lead to a costly turnover.

Final score: Iowa 27 - Iowa State 24

Link For Iowa: Throwback game this weekend

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Wed, 05 Sep 2012 03:06:00 +0000

I nearly forgot that this weekend's game against Iowa State is the throwback game honoring the 1921 and 1922 teams. It looks like some students put together a site as part of a class. Go there to learn about the two undefeated team and purchase a throwback uniform for yourself. They're only like $600.

Link: Official Iowa Throwback Uniforms

Oh, and here's Iowa official picture of the uniforms. I think they look sharp.

2012 BlogPoll: Week 1

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Mon, 03 Sep 2012 18:30:00 +0000

Outside of the top couple of teams things were pretty shaky. I tried rewarding schools for beating BCS conference opponents, like Ohio over Penn State and Nevada over Cal. Any team that lost is out, so goodbye to Michigan for at least a couple of weeks. If they beat Notre Dame, then maybe they sneak back in. I put Virginia Tech at 25 as a holding spot, because they play Georgia Tech tonight. My ballot isn't technically due until tomorrow morning, so if VT wins, they'll probably jump up around 15, and if GT wins they will take the 25th spot. Something like that.

Update: I watched that Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech game and I think 25 is probably about right for VT, who squeaked out a win in OT. So I'm leaving my ballot as is.

Anyway, because I do have until tomorrow morning, let me know if I made egregiousness errors. My ballot's after the break.

Fight For Iowa Ballot - Week 1

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
2	USC Trojans	--
3	LSU Tigers	--
4	Oregon Ducks	--
5	Clemson Tigers	--
6	Oklahoma Sooners	--
7	Georgia Bulldogs	--
8	Ohio St. Buckeyes	--
9	Florida St. Seminoles	--
10	West Virginia Mountaineers	--
11	Arkansas Razorbacks	--
12	Michigan St. Spartans	--
13	Nebraska Cornhuskers	--
14	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	--
15	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	--
16	Wisconsin Badgers	--
17	Florida Gators	--
18	Kansas St. Wildcats	--
19	South Carolina Gamecocks	--
20	Stanford Cardinal	--
21	Louisville Cardinals	--
22	Miami Hurricanes	--
23	Ohio Bobcats	--
24	Nevada Wolf Pack	--
25	Virginia Tech Hokies	--

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

Iowa survives Northern Illinois

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Mon, 03 Sep 2012 16:12:00 +0000

A win is a win is a win. I had to keep telling myself that on Saturday. It's hard not to come away from that game with some serious worries about the upcoming season. But it's in my nature to remain optimistic and I think there were some signs that Iowa is on the right track.

First things first...since I took the time to write about my keys to the game, I'm going to take the time to recap how they went.

Four Factors

Make Jordan Lynch throw the ball - This was a good reflection of the overall game...Iowa managed to make Lynch throw the ball just enough to matter. Lynch hurt the Hawkeyes with his legs multiple times, especially early in the game. His third down, super obvious to everyone but apparently the Iowa defense, quarterback draws were devastating. The 73-yarder in the third quarter was by far NIU's best offensive play of the game. But Iowa adjusted defensively. They didn't really blitz a lot, or at all, but kept more men in the box to defend the run. After his 73 yard run, Lynch ran the ball 5 more times for just 8 yards.

Making Lynch throw the ball worked great too. He completed just 6 of 16 passes for 54 yards. Those numbers make Vandenberg's look not too shabby (and shabby they definitely were). Besides a nice pass 25-yard pass to Martel Moore (who got away with a push off) over Micah Hyde in man coverage, Lynch really struggled.

In the fourth quarter, when Iowa was mounting a comeback and when the Huskies desperately needed to move down the field after Damon Bullock's go-ahead TD, Lynch was awful. He was 1 of 5 passing for -1 yard (yeah, negative).

Special credit here goes to Greg Castillo who came in for the injured B.J. Lowery (who, side note, should be just fine...just a bruised rib). He didn't miss a stride and promptly came in a broke up a pass. He also had the play of the game saving John Wienke's punt from trickling into the endzone and allowing his teammates to down it inside the 1 yard line. This play ultimately set up the Iowa's lone and game-winning touchdown.

Use the tight ends - The tight end play that sticks out most in my mind was when C.J. Fiedorowicz completely whiffed on a DE that led to Vandenberg getting sacked. But really other than that, the tight ends played pretty well. Fiedorowicz had 3 catches for 21 yards and Zach Derby added 2 for 10.

While those numbers aren't super impressive, none of the passing/receiving stats were. The Greg Davis #HoriztonalOffense meme was in full force on Saturday as Vandenberg averaged just 3.9 yards per passing attempt. He only took one shot down the field and only even looked downfield a couple other times. His longest pass of the day was a short throw to Keenan Davis who made a guy miss and had about 15 yards after the catch. So passing wasn't really a big thing...and the TEs didn't have a huge chance to be show cased. I think that'll come as everyone gets more comfortable with the offense. It has to...right?

Third downs - Ugh. I hate reading what I wrote about this on Friday, because it was all too true.

The key here is to contain Jordan Lynch. How many times in the past couple of years have we seen Iowa get an opponent in 3rd and long only to have the QB scramble and pick up the first down? Too many.

Ugh. Yeah. Actually, NIU was just 6/15 on third down conversions. That's not too bad by the defense. But all 6 of those came on rushing plays, 5 of them were by Lynch, and 4 were QB draws on 3rd-and-long. So that was not good.

The good thing, though, was Iowa's defense forced 4 3-and-outs, a 3-play drive that ended in a fumble, and a 4-and-out that essentially ended the game. The defense only allowed 2 long drives that both resulted in points. And both of them were early in the game, before Phil Parker made adjustments.

On the other side of the ball, Iowa was 8 of 18 on third down conversion. Not great, but not awful. The horizontal offense did set up a lot of 3rd-and-medium type of plays and Iowa struggled to pick those up. Vandenberg was sacked, a lot, or just didn't find a receiver down the field.

The great thing to see, though, was that Iowa was very effective at 3rd-and-short. Mark Weisman had a couple of FB dives that were effective (one came on fourth down in a welcome aggressive call) and Bullock was very good on third downs (his TD came on a 3rd-and-9).

Managing the slop - The weather didn't turn out to be as bad as weather.com was predicting and wasn't a factor in the game. Soldier Field's condition wasn't great and there were a couple of plays that I noticed players having problems getting their footing. I don't think that was a huge factor though either. There was no shortage of slop however.

The passing game never got its footing and the offensive line looked like it had never seen a stunt before. The defense missed a lot of tackles, especially early.

But Iowa kept the penalties at bay for the most part...just 3 for 30 yards. There weren't any dumb pre-play penalties either, like false starts or illegal formations, which Northern Illinois had a few of.

Also, Iowa had no turnovers. Bullock did have 2 fumbles along the sideline that rolled harmlessly out of bounds. None of Vandenberg's passes were in any danger. Really going back to 2009 when Stanzi was guaranteed to throw at least 1 interception per game, Iowa quarterbacks have kept it close to the vest and haven't taken too many risks. Maybe that's why the offense on Saturday looked so horizontal...Vandenberg just didn't want to pull the trigger on those long throws so either checked down or took a sack. Better safe than sorry...I guess.

The horizontal offense

This was the first time we have ever got to see new coordinators under Kirk Ferentz since the first game he coached. Looking at home the two called the game was probably the most interesting aspect of the game.

So Pat Harty wrote a post about how the offense didn't really look any different. (Long side note: He still puts his name in the title of his posts...nobody else on Hawk Central does this and they do put the autor's name with a little link to their profile under the title of the post. Plus, it's not like I couldn't figure out who the author was when reading his posts because he's the only person I know who never uses more than 1 sentence per paragraph. I don't get it.) I don't think we were watching the same game. The offense looked very different than Ken O'Keefe's version. It featured more short passes, fullback rushing the ball, motioning a TE out wide, a faster tempo even when huddling and blazing fast when no-huddle, more runs out of shot gun, a whole lot more screen passes, a smaller reliance on play-action, etc, etc...

The biggest and most frustrating difference was the lack of any vertical passing game. That was a staple of KOK's offense...play action, bomb it down the field. That pretty much was KOK's passing offense. Texas fans warned us about Greg Davis' love for the short passing game, but I honestly didn't believe it would be this bad or this frustrating.

It actually worked well between the 20s. Iowa successfully drove the ball up and down the field for most of the game. The Hawkeyes had 6 drives of 8 or more plays and 5 scoring drives. The big and obvious problem was the way the offense stalled right around the 25 yard line. Though Iowa spent most of its time on the Huskies' side of the field, I think they only took one legitimate shot at the endzone. It's like Greg Davis believes there is some magical forcefield that protects the endzone from balls thrown in the air and the only way to get the ball through the forcefield is in someone's hands or to kick it over. We have a 6-7 dude who is fast, strong, and outweighed the guys covering him by over 50 pounds. I think lobbing it up to him might have just worked. Also, Ken O'Keefe totally would have taken a shot at the endzone immediately following the turnover at the 14 yard line. Seriously.

The defense stepped up

For all the worries about the defensive line during the off season, I'd say they played pretty well. They struggled some early before Iowa added extra defenders in the box, and whatever was said to them at halftime worked. In the second half, the defensive ends really started to play well. Joe Gaglione had 3 TFLs, a sack, and a forced fumble. He finished with 6 total tackles, tied for third most on the team. He currently leads the entire B1G in TFL. Dominic Alvis is second in the conference with 2 TFLs and he was the one that recovered the fumble Gaglione caused.

The linebackers also improved as the game went on. They got swallowed up a little early in the game. Morris got completely shoved out of the play on Lynch's long TD run. But Hitchens and Morris both had 8 tackles and were effective run stopper once they started to be more aggressive and had less responsibility against the pass.

And as a whole, even though it felt like the defense was really struggling, NIU only score 10 points in the first half and 17 overall. The Huskies only gained 201 yards, only had 12 first downs, and only had 21 minutes time of possession. That should equal a win every week as long as the offense is competent.

Of the games

Player of the game - No question it was Damon Bullock. While I predicted he would ultimately lead the team in all-purpose yards this year, I never would have expected the 176 performance he had on Saturday. He showed good vision, broke tackles, looked fast, and always fell forward (he had just 1 negative run). Add in his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, something Iowa hasn't had for quite some time, and he looked great out there. He accounted for 2/3rd of Iowa's offense. Oh, and in case you forgot, he saved the game with his 23-yard touchdown on a very well-blocked outside zone.

Play of the game - It was the punt downed at the 1. Great punt by Wienke. Great play by Castillo to keep it in play. It was exactly what Iowa needed at that point in the game. The special teams did their part. Then the defense did their's forcing a 3 and out. Then the offense did their's scoring the game winner. Also, great move by the coaches to have Wienke be there pooch punter. Connor Kornbrath had his first career punt earlier in the game and standing in his own endzone booted it 50 yards. That's was nice to see. But Wienke executed the pooch punt perfectly and if that's all he has to focus on during practice, then he should be able to continue to do so. Plus, in pooch punt territory, it seems like the perfect place to try a fake punt...and having a former QB with his hands on the ball, there are options there.

Good coaching decision of the game - While I kind of ragged on Greg Davis's play calling, I did really like the 3rd-and-9 outside zone that Bullock scored on. Had it gotten blown up in the backfield, I would have seriously questioned why the hell we were running on third down with the game on the line. But it work and was brilliant. That's not my good coaching decision of the game though. My favorite call was the 4th-and-1 fullback dive on the 5 yard line. Typical Ferentz probably kicks a FG there, and the drive did ultimately end in a FG. But I liked the aggressiveness and the somewhat unexpected run by the rarely used fullback. It was an easy 2 yard gain, and Iowa probably should have punched it in for a TD, but oh well. And speaking of field goals, Mike Meyer was great. He missed the one 40-yarder but followed that up nailing one from 50. He finished the game 4 of 5 and was named co-special team player of the week in the B1G.

Wrapping it up with some optimism

I'm usually a pretty optimistic guy, and I do think there are some reason to be optimistic about this season. Really just correcting the red-zone offense and Iowa looks pretty good. Imagine if Iowa's gets TDs instead of field goals, even on just a couple of those trips deep inside NIU's territory, we're looking at a very comfortable win.

And, hey, this was Iowa's first game under new coordinators. The offense is a work in progress. The line is young, the receivers are still trying to figure it out, the running back depth is incredibly thin...but it still went okay and should only get better. NIU may be a MAC team with a MAC defense, but they had basically their whole defense back from last year and were probably better than any of us gave them credit.

And the defense was actually pretty good. The only reason I was feeling down on it was the QB draws. Other than that, Iowa pretty much locked it down. Now, there are some running quarterbacks that Iowa is going to have to deal with and deal with very soon. But if the 4th quarter, aggressive defense shows up, instead of the first half defense, I think we'll be okay.

So with that, I'm at about 2300 words and that's probably more than enough. An ugly win, but a win nevertheless.

Four Factor Friday: Northern Illinois

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Fri, 31 Aug 2012 14:17:00 +0000

So, there's no proper preview for Northern Illinois this week. I wanted to do one but ran out of time and then ran in to internet issues (thanks Mediacom). Anyway, here are a few keys of the game for tomorrow.

1. Make Jordan Lynch throw the ball

We've all heard about Chandler Harnish by now. Kirk Ferentz has mentioned him like 20 times in the past week. He was an amazing accomplished QB for the Huskies and set both passing and rushing records for NIU. If he was still around, somebody I would be seriously worried about Iowa's inexperienced defense trying to corral. But he's gone, drafted as the last pick. So we turn our focus to Jordan Lynch.

Even with Harnish at the helm last year, Lynch got his share of snaps. He finished 4th on the team in rushing yards with 246 and attempted 20 passes. Important note--There is a new OC in town, but the word is the offense is going to remain much the same so I'm basing a lot of this on last year. Based on the one game I watch of NIU's (the GODADDY.com Bowl), Lynch was primarily used as a run-first quarterback in special packages. A lot of the plays he ran were designed QB runs or option plays. The frequently used him with multiple backs instead of their usual 3-4 wide.

Harnish was NIU's leading rusher last season and I expect it to be Lynch this year. So Iowa is going to have to take this dimension of his game away. Or at least minimize it. We know Iowa has struggled against rushing quarterbacks in the past, and with the question marks along the defensive line, it at least looks like the Hawkeyes could struggle again this year.

The one speck of hope for shutting down Lynch's ground game is that NIU will be breaking in 5 new offensive linemen. The 3 interior starters are all red-shirt freshmen. So if there is one this year that the defensive line can maybe gain some confidence, this is it.

This is all not to say that NIU's passing game is going to be horrendous. While the rest of the offense is extremely inexperience, the Huskie receiving corps looks to be one of the best units on the team. Two of the top 3 receivers from last year return: Martel Moore and Perez Ashford. There is some depth there too. Plus they list 4 starting WRs on their depth chart (and 14 total players).

2. Use the tight ends

The biggest mismatch I can see just looking at the two teams' depth charts is Iowa's tight ends vs. NIU's linebackers. The starting trio of Huskie linebackers are all listed under 6'0 and all weigh in the 220 area. Compare that to 6'7", 265 C.J. Fiedorowicz, or 6'5" 248 Ray Hamilton, and on down the line of TEs. That should be an advantage in the run game and even more so passing. It would seem to me you could just kind of lob it up to CJF and let him just go up there and get it...over and over and over.

It'll be interesting to watch the mix of personnel groupings; 2 TE vs 3-4 wide vs 2 backs... Ferentz said on Tuesday that 4 TEs would play and 6 WRs. So that's a lot of guys that are going to be splitting targets (not to mention the running backs and full backs). I have a feeling that the TEs will finish the game with more receptions than any other group.

3. Third downs

If I learned anything from Googling Greg Davis, it's that he likes to throw the ball horizontally. A couple of quick 2-yard passes toward the boundary, and Iowa is sitting 3rd and 6. With questions at running back as well, Iowa could be looking at a lot of 3rd downs in that manageable, but not easy to pick up range. Here's where I'd probably just have CJF post up 1 yard past the first down marker.

NIU will make it more difficult than that though. In their bowl game, they repeatedly played pretty conservatively on 1st and 2nd down, but were aggressive on 3rddown, especially on 3rd-and-long. They used that everyone stand around the line of scrimmage so you don't know who is going to rush and who is going to drop into coverage type of D on 3rd down...and we've seen James Vandenberg struggle picking up blitzes before.

Kirk Ferentz loves to play the field position game, but with a true freshman punter, he may not have that luxury. Iowa has had some pretty good punting talent the past 4 or 5 years, but there could be some bumps this year.

Also, Greg Davis has talked about the offense going at a little faster tempo and using some no-huddle. This can really come back to bite a team if they have a couple of 3-and-outs and only burn about 20 seconds off the clock.

On the other side of the ball, Iowa's defense needs to keep the third down conversions to a minimum. The key here is to contain Jordan Lynch. How many times in the past couple of years have we seen Iowa get an opponent in 3rd and long only to have the QB scramble and pick up the first down? Too many. I think Iowa's secondary is good enough and will play tight enough to limit the 3rd and longs converted through the air.

4. Managing the slop

The first game of the year also has its share of sloppiness as both teams try to shake off the cobwebs. Iowa needs to keep the dumb penalties to a minimum. It seemed like that was a big problem from them in the second open practice as there were 6 false start penalties in the short scrimmage. Soldier Field probably won't be full or nearly as loud as the pumped in crowd noise, but still.

The other area that Iowa can't afford big mistakes is in the secondary. If Phil Parker is going to put the corners out there on an island and be more aggressive on defense, the margin for error shrinks. Iowa struggled early last season giving up the big pass play and it cost them at least one game. I'm not sure how comfortable I am with either Nico Law or Tom Donatell back there at SS in week 1.

Also...this game maybe sloppy because of the weather. Thanks to the remnants of Hurricane Isaac (it looks like it is supposed to hit Chicago right around 2:30--kick off time), this game may look similar to last year's season opener in terms of rain. With the current running back situation, I'm not so sure bad weather favors the Hawkeyes.

Prediction

If you look at NIU's Soldier Field game last year against Wisconsin (who, granted, was almost undoubtedly a better team last year than Iowa is right now), the Huskies only put up 7 points...and that was with Harnish. So I think Iowa will be able to hold them under 20. And while NIU is decidedly more experience on defense, they were still awful last year on that side of the ball and didn't really do anything to upgrade. If Iowa can't score 20 on NIU, it could be a long year.

I think both team will struggle offensively early in the game. Both are breaking in new offensive coordinator and have some inexperienced units. Ultimately though, Iowa's size and strength will wear on the Huskies and the Hawkeyes will pull away in the second half as NIU's offense continues to struggle.

Final Score: Iowa 31 - Northern Illinois 17

2012 BlogPoll: Preseason

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Mon, 27 Aug 2012 15:00:00 +0000

I'll admit it...I had no clue what I was doing when I was filled out my preseason ballot. I usually use a mix of a team's per play statistics, win-loss resume, and my own personal bias when coming up with my rankings. But right now I just have my bias and at lot of incomplete information. I don't follow the rest of the college football world outside of Iowa (and the B1G to some extent) to really know who's who this year. So anyway, here's what I've got for now.

Fight For Iowa Ballot - Week 19

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	2
2	USC Trojans	--
3	LSU Tigers	-2
4	Oklahoma Sooners	6
5	Florida St. Seminoles	2
6	Oregon Ducks	-1
7	Georgia Bulldogs	-1
8	Michigan St. Spartans	11
9	Michigan Wolverines	-5
10	Ohio St. Buckeyes	2
11	Clemson Tigers	2
12	Arkansas Razorbacks	-3
13	West Virginia Mountaineers	-5
14	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	-3
15	South Carolina Gamecocks	--
16	Wisconsin Badgers	2
17	Virginia Tech Hokies	-1
18	Nebraska Cornhuskers	-1
19	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	2
20	Stanford Cardinal	2
21	Florida Gators	2
22	Auburn Tigers	3
23	Texas Longhorns	-9
24	Boise St. Broncos	--
25	Kansas St. Wildcats	-5

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

Fight For Iowa

The last time Iowa played in East Lansing

Until the game is won: Part 2

So maybe Greg Davis does know what he's doing

Pic for Iowa: Weisman for Heisman

The difference a week makes

Four factors in review

Of the games

Season outlook

Four Factor Friday: Minnesota

Get early pressure

Keep doing what works

Play smart

Bounce back

Prediction

2012 BlogPoll: Week 4

Fight For Iowa Ballot - Week 4

A strange and awful game

NEGATIVE TIME

The identity thing again

Other problems

Four Factor Friday: Central Michigan

Throw a touchdown pass

Finish in the red-zone

Get some time for the backups

Keep it going on D and running the ball

Prediction

Tweet For Iowa: Wear green for Greenwood

2012 BlogPoll: Week 3

Fight For Iowa Ballot - Week 3

Weisman runs all over UNI

The running back situation

Back to its roots

Four factors in review

Of the games

Closing thoughts

Four Factor Friday: Northern Iowa

Start fast

Establish the run

Exploit the mismatches

A big play

Prediction

Pic for Iowa: Pro Combat Uniform

Piling it on

Identity Crisis

What Iowa should do

Iowa holds Iowa State to 9 and still loses

Four factors in review

Overly aggressive

Some stats

Of the games

Closing thoughts

2012 BlogPoll: Week 2

Fight For Iowa Ballot - Week 2

One Thing

Pic For Iowa: New Cy-Hawk Trophy

Four Factor Friday: Iowa State

Contain Steele Jantz

Vertical Offense

In the red-zone

Field position

Prediction

Link For Iowa: Throwback game this weekend

2012 BlogPoll: Week 1

Fight For Iowa Ballot - Week 1

Iowa survives Northern Illinois

Four Factors

The horizontal offense

The defense stepped up

Of the games

Wrapping it up with some optimism

Four Factor Friday: Northern Illinois

1. Make Jordan Lynch throw the ball

2. Use the tight ends

3. Third downs

4. Managing the slop

Prediction

2012 BlogPoll: Preseason

Fight For Iowa Ballot - Week 19