Fantasy tips for fantasy baseball, fantasy football...Fantasy Tipster

First Impressions

noreply@blogger.com (Randy Marquis) — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 17:42:00 +0000

If you missed it (and if you're fantasy baseball fanatic, you didn't), the Matt Wieters Era finally began on May 29. His sidekick in hype, David Price, made his season debut just a scant four days earlier. Perhaps inspired by seeing Orioles and Rays fans stampeding to the ticket counter, the New York Mets, Atlanta Braves and Chicago White Sox all followed suit by calling up their own franchise saviors, Fernando Martinez, Tommy Hanson and Gordon Beckman seemingly within minutes of each other.

Let's take a look at the first impressions these kids are making on the fantasy baseball owners burning up the waiver wires to add them to their own rosters...

Matt Wieters: I'll leave the hyperbole up to the folks at the hilarious Matt Wieters Facts website, but let's just say that those possessing a Y chromosome haven't been this excited since Jessica Biel finally revealed her true talents in Powder Blue. But don't start casting that Hall-of-Fame plaque just yet. Wieters was batting just .229 as of this writing, without a homerun or RBI to his name. He does sport an unsightly 8:1 K:BB ratio, mildly surprising given his minor league track record of patience.

Those expecting "Joe Mauer with power" to be their fantasy savior this season may be sorely disappointed. He plays the most physically and mentally demanding defensive position on the diamond, so any extra work he does this summer will be dedicated to learning about the Orioles pitchers and opposing hitters, not adjusting his own swing. He'll have to survive in the batter's box on talent alone and, while that talent is prodigious, that may not be enough for a 23 year old with barely a season's worth of professional experience.

For perspective, here's how some of the best hitting catchers in major league history fared in their real exposure to the big show:

Mike Piazza - 21G, .232 1 HR 7 RBI
Carlton Fisk - 16G, .283 2 HR 6 RBI
Johnny Bench - 26G, .163 1 HR 6 RBI

There are exceptions (both Mauer and Brian McCann got their careers off to solid statistical starts), but regardless, patience will be the order of business for Wieters owners. They may have to wait until 2010 for their investment to truly pay off.

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David Price: Though he made is major league debut last season, Price is still a rookie and, perhaps excepting Hanson, the most hyped pitching prospect in all of baseball. Rays fans and fantasy baseball owners surely questioned Tampa's decision to send Price to Triple-A Durham to open to the season, but the prudence may well have paid off.

Not only did the Rays delay Price's service time clock (no small factor for a small market team like the Rays), not only did Price gain valuable experience while pitching for the Bulls, not only will they be better able to control Price's innings load this season, but they also got a good look at what Jeff Niemann and Andy Sonnanstine could offer the big club this season. Since in Sonnanstine's case the answer is "not much," expect Price to stick around Tampa even after Scott Kazmir returns from his injury prompted hiatus.

That said, don't expect miracles. Other recent, similarly talented young arms have experienced plenty of growing pains once they started facing major league hitters:

Max Scherzer - 115.1 IP, 2-8, 3.59 ERA
Clayton Kershaw - 171.2 IP, 8-10, 4.35 ERA

Going back a little farther, we begin to see a trend developing:

Jon Lester - 81.1 IP, 7-2, 4.76 ERA
Chad Billingsley - 90 IP, 7-4, 3.80 ERA

And how about some future Hall-of-Famers:

Tom Glavine - 50.1 IP, 2-4, 5.54 ERA
Greg Maddux - 31 IP, 2-4, 5.52 ERA

Frankly, it almost behooves Price to start slowly as many pitchers who came out of the gate dominating (Dwight Gooden, Fernando Valenzuela) ultimately flamed out more rapidly than Paris Hilton's "acting" career.

Since this post is already obscenely long and I'm running out of clever celebrity comparisons, we'll cover Martinez, Hanson and Beckman early next week.

Fantasy "aces" MIA

noreply@blogger.com (Randy Marquis) — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 22:00:00 +0000

Brandon Webb. CC Sabathia. Jake Peavy. Cole Hamels. What do these four names have in common? All are "ace" pitchers, probably taken within the first five rounds of your fantasy baseball draft. All are absolutely killing those teams.

Add Francisco Liriano, Cliff Lee and even Tim Lincecum to the list and you have a new Murderers Row. ERA and WHIP Murderers that is.

Of the top ten fantasy producers (according to Yahoo) so far this young season, seven are hitters (Ian Kinsler, Albert Pujols, Nick Markakis, Grady Sizemore, Aaron Hill, Matt Kemp and Kevin Youkilis), three are pitchers (Zack Greinke, Johan Santana and Chad Billingsley).

A number of fantasy pundits eschew pitching in the earliest rounds of their drafts, preferring to stock up on the big hitters with steady and reliable production. They mine the later rounds for pitching diamonds-in-the-rough where the risk isn't as great but the rewards potentially substantial.

So far that strategy has proven a sound one, as Webb, Sabathia, Hamels etc have struggled while later-round gems like Greinke (12th), John Danks (14th) and Erik Bedard (14th) have sparkled. And don't forget waiver-wire finds Kevin Millwood, Wandy Rodriguez, Ricky Romero and Jarrod Washburn, all of whom have out performed the so-called aces thus far.

Meanwhile Hill is the only top ten hitter you could consider a genuine surprise.

Of course when the dust settles, Millwood is highly unlikely to have more value than Sabathia or even Liriano and Lee, though his ultimate value relative to his draft position should be much higher. And that's the key to fantasy success: getting the most production for the price paid. Remember this when you're debating between Webb and Markakis, Peavy and Curtis Granderson next spring.

For those owners currently suffering through the ownership of any of these struggling aces, resist the temptation to take thirty cents on the dollar for them. You won't get enough value in return given where you drafted them and most should supply better production going forward. Besides, it's future production that matters when making trades, not past.

For those looking to buy low, know that all of these pitchers come with warning labels fully attached. Webb and Hamels are already battling injuries to their shoulders, while Sabathia and Lincecum bear the weight of expectations and massive inning totals. If I had to recommend any one to target it would be Peavy as he's coming off a sub-200 IP season, plays half his games in the pitching haven of Petco Park and his Padres are looking like they might have more wins in them than expected.

But, as always when it comes to the rare creature called "ace," buyer beware.

The Replacements

noreply@blogger.com (Randy Marquis) — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 21:49:00 +0000

Remember the Keanu Reeves/Gene Hackman film where Reeves plays "scab" QB Shane Falco and leads a rag-tag group of replacement players to NFL glory? Yeah, me neither.

But during every fantasy season a group of rag-tag waiver wire players replaces their more heralded colleagues, albeit not usually due to strike but instead to injuries and ineffectiveness. Shrewd owners always pay heed to "the guy behind the guy" and plan accordingly because no fantasy roster ever makes it through an entire season unscathed.

This week's Fantasy Tipster Fly 5 looks at a some recent replacement players who could lead you to fantasy glory...Brooke Langton not included.

1. Brandon Wood, SS/3B (LAA) - Vladimir Guerrero tore his right pectoral muscle and is expected to miss a minimum of a month's game action, leaving a gaping hole in both the Angels' and a number of virtual lineups. While Gary Matthews Jr. is the most immediate beneficiary, it's the powerful Wood that could ultimately make the most impact. He excelled in Spring Training (.333/4HR/13RBI) and has continued to mash at AAA. He's still a work in progress (his '08 43K:4BB ratio is as ugly as it gets) but the Angels needed power even before Guerrero went down and Wood is more than capable of supplying it.

2. Felipe Paulino, SP (HOU) - After Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez, Houston's rotation bears some resemblance to the assorted stock boys and security guards dotting the fictional Sentinals' roster. Two of those misfits, Brandon Backe and Brian Moehler are out of commission, giving Paulino, arguably the 'Stros best pitching prospect, a chance to show his stuff. He dazzled in his first start against the Reds (6IP/3H/2BB/6K) and could stick with a few more such efforts. Baseball America rated Paulino's fastball the best in the Houston farm system as recently as 2007, so he's definitely worth keeping tabs on to see if that skill can translate to big league success.

3. Justin Masterson, SP/RP (BOS) - With Daisuke Matsuzaka out indefinitely with inflammation in his pitching shoulder and erstwhile prospect Clay Buchholtz coping with a hamstring injury of his own, Masterson steps into the Red Sox rotation. While undoubtedly one of Boston's top prospects, let's not forget most of his success last season came in the bullpen. He was solid if unspectacular in nine starts last season where control problems limited his effectiveness. Given the likely short-term nature of Matsuzaka's injury and the plethora of options available should Masterson falter, don't view him as more than a short-term plug-and-play for favorable match-ups. Of course if you're in a keeper league, now's the time to hope for some immediate returns on your investment in addition to the potential for long-term success.

4. P.J. Walters, SP (STL) - Chris Carpenter's Comeback Player of the Year candidacy is on hold for at least a couple of months as he recovers from a torn oblique muscle. Walters is the Cardinals' first candidate to keep Carpenter's place warm and, while he only made it through four innings in his first start, he showed he has some quality stuff in striking out seven while walking just two. In fact, stuff hasn't been Walters problem as he's averaging close to a K per IP throughout his minor league career. But last season at the AAA level his control eluded him as he posted an unsightly 1.52 WHIP due mostly to 62BB in just 122IP. Prior to '08, however, Walters displayed solid control (4K:1B ratio) and, if he can harness it at the big league level, he stands to collect a few wins with a solid Cardinals club. And if he does show some success as Carpenter's replacement, he could even ultimately take the below-average Joel Pineiro's rotation spot for the long run.

5a. Manny Corpas, RP (COL)/5b. Ryan Franklin, RP (STL)/5c. Garrett Mock, RP (WAS)/5d. Joe Beimel, RP (WAS) - A number of relievers have already been booted from "Survivor: Closer Island." Thanks to their early season struggles, Huston Street, Jason Motte, Joel Hanrahan have already been voted off the island, with Corpas, Franklin, Mock and Beimel ascending to their vacated places. But if there's one thing predictable about saves it's that who gets them is nearly unpredictable. Carlos Marmol already has twice the saves of the Cubs' "closer" Kevin Gregg. David Aardsma, Jason Grilli and Todd Coffey have combined for more saves than Jose Valverde, Kerry Wood and Brian Fuentes. The point? Don't be afraid to take a flyer on a newly promoted closer...but keep the deposed closer on speed dial. He might wind up being the replacement for his replacement.

Hotties and Notties

noreply@blogger.com (Randy Marquis) — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 17:06:00 +0000

Just about every major league player has hot & cold streaks. When they're hot, hitters think about chasing Pete Rose or Joe DiMaggio...while pitchers have Nolan Ryan and Cy Young in their lofty sights. When they're cold, hitters worry the Mendoza Line will be renamed for them...and pitchers see visions of John Van Benschoten dancing in their heads.

If those hot & cold streaks happen at the start of a season, however, they're put under more microscopes than Lindsay Lohan's career. Fantasy baseball owners with itchy trigger fingers are watching live gamecasts ready to click the add/drop button with every 0-fer.

Before we dive into the Fantasy Tipster's first Hotties and Notties of 2009, remember that everything is uber-magnified at this time of the year. Remember, Dustin Pedroia started his career 6 for 38 (.158 BA)...and finished as the 2007 Rookie of the Year (not to mention the 2008 AL MVP). Is there a Pedroia lurking in our Notties? Let's find out...

The Hotties

Emilio Bonifacio (2B/3B) FL - There may be no more a polarizing player this season than Bonifacio. Some view his start and think he's the second coming of Luis Castillo, circa 1999. Others look at the peripherals and are simply waiting for the inevitable Tuffy Rhodes flameout. Unfortunately, a close look at his minor league track record suggests that fantasy baseball owners may want enjoy this while it lasts. Bonifacio's numbers suggests a career more in line with Britney Spears (hot start then crash and burn) than Christina Aguilera (hot start, steady production). The one thing Castillo (and others of his ilk...see: Lofton, Kenny and Pierre, Juan) had that Bonifacio does not is plate discipline. During Castillo's breakout season, and through his most productive seasons, he drew nearly as many walks as strikeouts and never whiffed more than 90 times in a season. Bonifacio has K'd over twice as often has he's walked in the minors and the 41 K/14 BB line he posted with the Nationals last year suggests his average is bound to fall back to earth. Hard. That doesn't mean he can't be productive, Willy Taveras stole 68 bases last season while hitting .251 and posting a 79/36 K-to-BB rate. Just don't expect miracles and if you're the "sell high" type, sell sell sell.

Nick Swisher (1B/OF) NYY - A former 1st round pick who'd played in at least 150 games for the past three straight seasons, Swisher found himself in an unfamiliar spot to open 2009: his butt planted squarely on the Yankee pine. But thanks to early injuries to Mark Teixeira, Xavier Nady and Hideki Matsui, Swisher has quickly become a fixture in the starting lineup, even batting cleanup in yesterday's victory over Tampa Bay. Swisher is just 28 years old, has always exhibited solid plate discipline and hits lefties and righties with equal authority. Maybe all he needed was some motivation to finally deliver on all that potential. He'll never hit .300, but 25 HR and 90 RBI are very much in reach if he can continue to find regular playing time.

The Notties

Jimmy Rollins (SS) PHI - How bad has Rollins been? In Yahoo's ranking system, he's ranked 1105th. Alex Rodriguez is ranked 959th and hasn't played a game yet. In other words, you'd have been better off leaving your SS spot empty than starting Rollins. Ouch. Still, it's hardly time to panic. While the power he flashed in 2006-07 is looking more and more like a Brady Anderson out-of-body experience, Rollins peripherals actually suggest he's only improving. In 2008 he walked more than he K'd for the first time in his career. He also swiped a career high 47 bases and was caught just three times. Now if you drafted Rollins looking for a 20-20 or 30-30 player, you'll probably be disappointed. But despite the slow start, there's no reason to think Rollins won't end up with 15 HR and 40+ SB when all is said and done. If you don't own him, see if you can pry him loose from a panicked owner.

Lasting Milledge (OF) WAS - Anybody else feeling a little deja vu all over again? For all Milledge's obvious talents, the Nationals, like the Mets before them, have grown weary of his poor defense, poor plate discipline (10/1 K-to-BB ratio) and poor attitude (missing meetings, late arrivals to the ballpark). Washington has more than enough options to fill out it's outfield in Milledge's absence (Elijah Dukes, Austin Kearns, Adam Dunn & Josh Willingham) so don't expect Milledge back in the big leagues barring injury, Dukes implosion or a serious attitude adjustment. Of course, players of his talent always find jobs so if you have room to stash him on your bench do so, but until he figures out that being a big leaguer means more than just having talent, he'll never deliver you or the Nationals to a championship.

Opening Week: Day Two

noreply@blogger.com (Randy Marquis) — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 18:19:00 +0000

- Don't drop Brandon Morrow based on his poor outing in his first save opportunity of the season. Who else is going to close in Seattle? Miguel Batista? Roy Corcoran? Chad Cordero is out until at least May, so Morrow will have plenty of opportunities to prove his health & live up to the "Joba Chamberlain Lite" comparisons.

- Chad Tracy isn't getting much attention these days (he's owned in just 3% of Yahoo leagues). Between Felipe Lopez's scorching debut, hype machine products Justin Upton, Chris Young and Max Scherzer and new closer Chad Qualls, there isn't enough fantasy love to go around in the desert. But it's Tracy, not Young, not Upton, not even Stephen Drew or Mark Reynolds, that batted cleanup for the D'backs in the season's first two games. Tracy looked like a future star before injuries derailed him. A healthy Tracy, batting cleanup, could produce 25 HR and 100 RBI and a .280 batting average. You could do much worse with your corner infield slot. If you missed out on Hank Blalock, here's your consolation prize.

- If you're looking for stolen bases and not much else, Nyjer Morgan is your man...at least until the Pirates finally promote Andrew McCutchen.

- Yup, that was Chris Duncan batting cleanup behind Albert Pujols yesterday. It's hard to recommend anyone in the crowded Cardinals outfield (Rick Ankiel, Ryan Ludwick & Colby Rasmus are also fighting for at-bats; thank heavens Skip Schumaker is still bumbling around at second base, or this situation would be even muddier) but Duncan did smash 43 HR in 655 AB over 2006-07. He'll have to stay hot, but if he does, Tony Tinker (LaRussa) will find him at-bats. And if he's batting him behind Pujols, that should speak volumes.

Opening Day Quick Hits

noreply@blogger.com (Randy Marquis) — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 23:07:00 +0000

- Is this the year Felix Hernandez delivers on all that promise? 8IP, 5H, 3BB, 6K, .185 BAA...all on a bum ankle. If Erik Bedard is healthy and Ryan Rowland-Smith can pitch like he did last September (3.06 ERA, .252 BAA), maybe Seattle won't suck so bad after all.

- I don't know if Emilio Bonifacio will ever have another game like yesterday's (4-5, 4R, 3SB & an inside-the-park home run), but wouldn't you like to have him in your lineup in case he does?

- No, the sky isn't falling Yankee fans, despite what Jon Heyman writes. Even Whitey Ford and Mickey Mantle had bad games. CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira will be just fine.

- I guess Chris Ray and Jason Motte owners (yours truly included) have a little longer to wait for their sleepers to produce. Motte owners might want to take a flyer on Ryan Franklin, just in case.

One game does not a season make, but one game should have you taking a second look at Bonifacio, Felipe Lopez, Adam Lind, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Hank Blalock, Kevin Millwood & Paul Maholm. No, you shouldn't go cutting Sabathia, Teixeira, Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay, Ryan Howard or even Cliff Lee to make room. But at the bottom of every roster is someone you can live without and that's the place to try and nab a breakout star before your competition does. You can bet your competition will try and do the same.

Saves and Supermodels

noreply@blogger.com (Randy Marquis) — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 16:48:00 +0000

In fantasy baseball, top closers are like supermodels. They're rare, they're expensive and they make otherwise rational men do things they'll deny to friends later.

"I didn't draft Jonathan Papelbon in the third round. No, really, what kind of man do you take me for?"

Usually much beer drinking ensues.

Now if Tom Brady's marriage to Giselle doesn't work out, since he's already rich and talented beyond mortal standards, it's easy for him to pick himself up, dust himself off and go hang out at the Playboy Mansion looking for a rebound.

But if Papelbon, Rivera or K-Rod leave you at the alter, don't expect Hef to be handing you the keys to his mansion. You'll have to hit the waiver wire and scrounge for saves like the rest of us mortals trying to decide if Manny Corpas or Huston Street looks like a bridesmaid (setup man) or a bride (closer).

Oh sure, you could pledge allegiance to the single life, trolling the bars (waiver wire) for a one-night stand. Or worse, you could become a saves monk, punting the category and making a vow of saves celibacy. But you'll never find a supermodel that way…and you probably won't win a lot of fantasy baseball championships either.

Don't despair. Here are five names to remember as we enter this week's Fly 5: Salomon Torres, Jon Rauch, Ryan Franklin, Jonathan Broxton and Jensen Lewis. All entered 2008 as no more than bridesmaids to Eric Gagne, Chad Cordero, Jason Isringhausen, Takashi Saito and Joe Borowski. All ended it with double-digit save totals. Broxton, in fact, may be a borderline marriage prospect going into 2009.

Who can be your Broxton or your Franklin this season? Here are five current bridesmaids you might consider proposing marriage to before the season is out, in order of marriage worthiness:

1. Jensen Lewis (CLE) – If Kerry Wood were a supermodel, he'd be Kate Moss: in and out of rehab but productive when healthy. The health issue (sore back) has already reared its ugly head this spring, making Lewis a must-have for Wood owners. He converted 13 of 14 save chances as 2008 came to a close, so don't be afraid to nab Lewis if Wood reverts to his injury prone ways.

2. Ryan Perry (DET) – The Tigers bullpen is a complete mess, the equivalent of "American's Next Top Model" if all of the contestants were culled from the ranks of those who failed to make it on the "The Swan." Fernando Rodney has been announced as the closer going into the season, but Brandon Lyon and Joel Zumaya lurk as unappetizing alternatives. Perry, the Tigers first round selection in 2008, has the stuff, but he's just 22 years old with 13 innings of professional experience. Still, unless Willie Hernandez comes out of retirement, he may well be the Tigers most appealing option come summer.

3. Jerry Blevins/Santiago Casilla (OAK) – With Joey Devine en route to visit Dr. James Andrews, sidewinder Brad Ziegler has the closer duties to himself. But it's his deception, not his stuff, which gets major league hitters out. If the A's find Ziegler can't repeat his magic, Blevins and Casilla, profile as more classic closer types with their strikeout abilities. Casilla has already been mentioned as a potential Ziegler sidekick, but Blevins has the better control.

4. Juan Cruz (KC) – Cruz spent most of the winter like Paris Hilton. He had nearly every team interested in his services, but no firm commitments because of the price tag. Eventually the Royals coughed up the cash and the draft pick to sign him and he's likely to set up for super closer Joakim Soria. While Soria is secure in his role, Cruz's stuff (12.37 strikeouts per nine innings in 2008) makes him, along with the Cubs' Carlos Marmol, the best of the setup men "one heartbeat away" from top dog.

5. Todd Coffey/Jorge Julio (MIL) – Trevor Hoffman is 141 years old. Carlos Villanueva and Seth McClung have eight career big leagues saves between them. David Riske is exactly that. Looming in the back of the Brew Crew 'pen are Coffey (mentioned by manager Ken Macha as a potential fill-in) and Julio, he of the 99 career saves. Never underestimate what can happen when a manager has a "proven closer" to turn to.

Jay Cutler Traded

noreply@blogger.com (Randy Marquis) — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 23:10:00 +0000

Reports from Colorado are that disgruntled Denver Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler will be shipped to the Chicago Bears for a pair of first round draft picks, a third round pick and Bears quarterback Kyle Orton. The trade is the climax of an ugly feud between Cutler and new Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels.

Fantasy football owners may want to knock Cutler down a notch or two on their draft boards given his destination. Last season, Cutler had the pleasure of throwing his spirals to a stable of wide receivers that included all-pro Brandon Marshall, up-and-comer Eddie Royal and steady-as-ever Brandon Stokley. This season, all he'll have is Devin Hester.

In addition, no Bears quarterback has ever eclipsed the 4000 yards passing in a single season. The closest was the ever forgettable Erik Kramer way back in 1995. With dynamic running back Matt Forte around, the offense will revolve around his power rushing skills and Cutler is highly unlikely to come close to the 4546 yards he accumulated in 2008. Some prodigious numbers, while an obvious reflection on Cutler's skills, can be chalked up to playing in a Mike Shanahan system with no running game to speak of.

With his numbers likely to come back to the pack, owners shouldn't be looking Cutler's way until after Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and maybe even Kurt Warner and Aaron Rodgers are off the board. Once you're looking at Tony Romo, Matt Cassel and the rehabbing Tom Brady, Cutler may begin to be an attractive option.

As for Orton, he now makes for an intriguing late round sleeper. McDaniels worked his magic with Cassel last season and with the aforementioned receiver stable in Denver, could Orton could crack 3000 yards and 20 passing touchdowns for this first time? If things break right, he could find himself just outside the top 10 quarterbacks in 2009.

Difference Maker: Kendry Morales

noreply@blogger.com (Randy Marquis) — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 19:16:00 +0000

It may seem like you've been hearing about Morales for a long time…and in fantasy baseball circles, four years is a long time for a player to maintain "prospect" status.

Morales was a celebrated amateur and short-lived professional in Cuba before defecting to the United States in 2004. As a measure of his determination, it took him eight tries to finally set foot on the U.S. soil. The Angels quickly snatched him up with a six year deal and sent him off to Single-A Rancho Cucamonga. Morales, already a millionaire and a minor celebrity, was just 22.

Morales hit well at every minor league level, compiling a .332 career average and swatting 55 homers over 4 seasons. After short big league stints over the course of 2006-08 where he showed respectable power, Morales was anointed the Angels starting first baseman for 2009 once the Yankees signed away erstwhile starter Mark Teixeira.

He will be 26 come June, so the prospect label is beginning to peel off. To make the Angels forget about Teixeira, Morales will need to sharpen his batting eye and show a bit more patience at the plate. However, given that his only competition for at-bats is the journeyman Robb Quinlan, 20 homers and 80 RBI seem well assured for this season.

Closest comparison: he doesn't project to have the thump of elite first sackers like Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard or Teixeira, but if he takes a walk here and there to help his average, Morales' numbers should be in the company of Joey Votto, Derrek Lee or Adam LaRoche by year end. As he'll likely be around towards the tail end of your draft or as a waiver wire pickup, the risk is minimal given the potential rewards. Just note that in some leagues (such as Yahoo), he currently qualifies in the outfield only.

Don't Believe the Hype

noreply@blogger.com (Randy Marquis) — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 01:49:00 +0000

Ah…spring. The time of year when a young man's fancy turns to love. Those shiny shin guards…the graceful curve of his swing…the flash of the radar gun…98…99…

Of course I'm talking about spring training and fantasy baseball owners falling head-over-heels for hot young prospects. They send pulses racing on draft day yet, like any spring fling, they can leave us with nothing but broken hearts and last place finishes.

That's not to say there won't be a number of break-through rookies in 2009. Owners who fell for Evan Longoria or Joey Votto at this time last season found themselves in satisfying, perhaps even keeper, relationships. But for every Longoria there's a Clay Buchholz, for every Votto there's a Daric Barton or a J.R. Towles.

Here are some of this season's spring flings and a few alternatives that may not be as sexy but should at least turn your head for a second look:

Matt Wieters, C (BAL) - Wieters can hit for average. Wieters can hit for power. Wieters can walk on water, turn water to wine and rise from the dead on the third day…

Okay, so the last three he can't do (probably), but given how breathlessly some experts have promoted Wieters as the second coming (of Mike Piazza if not JC himself), fantasy owners wouldn't be shocked to see him tiptoeing across the Chesapeake Bay.

Don't get me wrong, Wieters is a terrific talent and will probably live up to those Piazza comparisons before long. But he enters 2009 behind the illustrious Gregg Zaun on the Orioles depth chart and seems likely to spend a few months wasting those talents at the Triple-A level. Even if he does open the year in the Majors, there's no guarantee of immediate big league success (see: Saltalamacchia, Jarrod or Clement, Jeff). He's going in the 10th round of Yahoo! drafts, which means he's going ahead of established, productive players like Torii Hunter, Raul Ibanez and the aforementioned Votto.

Instead, consider: both Saltalamacchia (17th) and Clement (20th) are worth a look as late round flyers, but if you're looking for a #1 catcher, try Chris Iannetta. The Rockies backstop came to the majors in 2007 with a bit less hype than Wieters, but he is no less a prospect. He mashed 18 homers in just 333 AB last season, plays half his games at Coors Field (still a hitter haven, despite the humidor) and projects to bat somewhere in the middle of the Rockies order. And you can get him at least two rounds later, letting you spend that 10th round pick on a Hunter, Ibanez or Votto.

David Price, SP/RP (TB) – If Wieters can't bring the wine to supper, maybe Price can. All he did in three minor league stops in 2008 is go 12-1 with a 2.30 ERA and 109 K in 109.2 IP. Add a dominant 19.2 regular and postseason major league innings and Price has a number of fantasy owners/disciples crossing themselves that the Rays hand him the keys to the starting rotation this spring.

Before I get struck by lightning for too many Christian allegories in one blog, here are the numbers that should give any potential Price owner pause: 1, 162 and 4.52.

1 is the number of big league starts Price as made to date.
162 is the number of innings that would represent a 25% increase on Price's workload from last season, a number the Rays are unlikely to let him surpass.
4.52 is the ERA of Felix Hernandez in his first full big league season.

Yet Price is going in the 11th round of Yahoo! drafts, ahead of Ryan Dempster, Ricky Nolasco, Zack Greinke and John Danks. All of those four pitchers have at least 50 major league starts to their credit. All won at least 12 games last season. And all racked up at least 150 K. All are quite deserving of your love, so…

Instead, consider: Clayton Kershaw was last season's Price, over-hyped in the spring and marginally effective come summer. But he's entering his fourth season of professional baseball, his arm handled a solid 168 IP between AA and the majors in 2008 and, most importantly, he's already had his big league trial by fire in the form of 21 starts (during which he whiffed 100 batters in 107.2 IP). He's going about four rounds later, too, letting you nab a Greinke or Nolasco and still take a chance on a fire-balling, baby-faced lefty.

P.S. If you're drafting a keeper league, by all means consider Wieters and Price. Just know that you're building for 2010 and beyond...

Fly 5: Draft Day Tips

noreply@blogger.com (Randy Marquis) — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 02:23:00 +0000

On draft day, you need to be the man (or woman) with a plan. You need to rank players, both overall and by position. You need to scour the trade publications and websites for nuggets about up-and-coming rookies and down-and-out former stars. You need to load up on the carbs and be prepared for the marathon that is your league's draft day...

..and then you need to be prepared to scrap it all and improvise.

OK, maybe not "scrap it all," but before we plunge into this week's Fly 5, remember that the most important tip for a successful draft day is to pay attention to what your fellow owners are doing. If you're so caught up in your charts and magazines that you miss Chase Utley dropping into the second round...or the owner before you stocking up at catcher but neglecting the gaping hole he has at third base...or your buddy Joe having his fourth beer before round 2...you'll miss out on the handful of opportunities where the right decision will be the difference between a Yoohoo shower and drowning your sorrows in Ovaltine.

Without further ado, this week's Fly 5, Draft Day Tips edition...

1. Go for value. The favorite word of everyone from Mel Kiper to Bill Belichick on draft day is "value," perhaps followed a close second by "upside." What is value? It's the contributions of a player relative to the round they were drafted. In other words, Matt Kemp has greater value if you got him with your third round pick than with your second. Why? Because you presumably were able to nab an even better player in round two. The moral is, no matter how much you might think of Lastings Milledge, don't go off the charts and spend a sixth round pick on him. He might ultimately give you third round production, but your team will be better if the price was an eighth or ninth round pick.

2. Know your enemy. I play in a few different leagues, some with a bunch of buddies and some with perfect strangers in a public format. When you're playing with friends, remember their likes, dislikes and tendencies. If everyone is from the New England area, you can bet a significant number of your fellow owners will be Red Sox fans. That means two things: first, if you really want Dustin Pedroia or Jonathan Papelbon, you'll probably have to reach to get him. Second, many owners will loathe the idea of a Yankee on their roster and you can probably snatch up a Robinson Cano or Johnny Damon a lot later than you otherwise would expect...even if it makes your own stomach clench. While not all owners will have those obvious biases, they will undoubtedly have some, so don't be afraid to play to them where you can.

3. Always think at least one pick ahead. Most drafts follow the serpentine process whereby the owner who picks 1st in the first round picks last in the 2nd round and so forth. That means that usually there will be more or fewer owners picking between your picks depending on the round. As the draft progresses and your choices get tougher, you'll want to notice who stands between you and your next pick. For example, let's say you're in the eighth round and you're torn between grabbing Pirates catcher Ryan Doumit and shoring up your SS slot with JJ Hardy. Between you and your ninth round pick are four teams and all have viable starting catchers in Victor Martinez, Russell Martin, Geovany Soto and Brian McCann, but only one has filled their SS slot with someone better than Hardy. In other words, you've got a better chance to nab Doumit in the ninth round than Hardy, so you might take Hardy now and hope Doumit is there for the taking on your next turn.

4. Beware of drafting for "need." As your roster takes shape, you may find yourself spotting categories where you're lacking stat fillers. Some of the worst draft day decision are usually made when you decide you "have" to take the best base stealer left or because you reach for Brian Wilson three rounds too early because you need the saves. Remember, championship trophies are not handed out immediately post-draft. You'll have six months to patch those holes with free agents and shrewd trades.

5. Save the risky business for the end of the draft. My last couple of picks are almost always guys with a lot of upside that I think could pay off huge. Some years it works (Josh Willingham), some years it doesn't (JR Towles). But no matter how highly you think of a rookie or a veteran returning from injury, you don't want to find yourself counting on a high level of production. By filling out your roster with as many sure things as possible in the early rounds, you can take a couple risks towards the end, knowing that you can always drop them and pick up someone else if they don't live up to your lofty expectations.

Fly 5: Hitting the glass...

noreply@blogger.com (Randy Marquis) — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 04:53:00 +0000

Once a week I'll touch on 5 players who should be on your fantasy radar but aren't getting a lot of love in most leagues. Today, we'll kick of this feature with a 5 NBA players who can help you down the stretch. Without further ado...

1. Thabo Sefolosha, G/F (OKC) - A former 1st round pick, Sefolosha usually shows up on every fantasy prognosticator's "sleeper" list in the pre-season, only to register barely a blip once the season begins. Since moving to the Thunder at the trade deadline, however, Sefolosha has posted a very useful line of 10.4 PTS/5.7 REB/1.9 ST. With top scorers Kevin Durant and Jeff Green nursing injuries, Sefolosha is getting ample opportunity to finally live up to some of that pre-season hype. He probably won't keep up the scoring, but the rebounds and steals could be useful in helping you swipe a playoff spot.

2. Carl Landry, F (HOU) - Landry was a pleasant surprise last season, showing a nose for the glass in very limited minutes. Landry's numbers have improved across the board this season, but it's what he's accomplished since the Rockets "lost" Tracey McGrady that bear mentioning. In the past month, Landry's been offering prospective owners a line of 11.4 PTS/4.7 REB, 1 steal and 1 block per game. When you add in very solid percentages (57% FG/84% FT), it's amazing he's only found his way onto 11% of Yahoo rosters. Every playoff team could benefit from a stat sheet filler like Landry.

3. Chris Andersen, F/C (DEN) - Andersen is a head-to-head special, a guy who can single handily win a category for you. Only Dwight Howard and Marcus Camby have kept pace with Andersen's 2.3 blocks per game average. Add the equally under appreciated Ronny Turiaf and you have every NBA player averaging at least 2 blocks per game. With the brittle duo of Nene Hilario and Kenyon Martin once again battling injuries, Andersen has also hit the glass with abandon, pulling down an even dozen in three straight games as February came to close. He won't be dropping 20 points on anyone, but if you need blocks, you really can't do much better.

4. Leon Powe, F (BOS) - With Kevin Garnett out for at least another week and Glen "Big Baby" Davis leaving Sunday's game on crutches, Powe should have no trouble getting the minutes that will allow him to continue posting the 13.7 PTS/7.3 REB he's averaged for the last handful of games. He was a 20/10 man in college, so the 20 points and 11 rebounds he posted against Cleveland (in just 26 minutes, no less) shouldn't be a shock given the opportunity and he'll have a few opportunities to do just that over the next few games.

5. Marco Belinelli, G (GS) - This is, admittedly, a stretch, but with the Warriors long since out of the playoff hunt, Don Nelson has started getting his younger players some looks. Vets like Stephen Jackson, Monta Ellis, Corey Maggette and Andris Biedrins all have rode the pine of late in favor of the kiddies. Belinelli has started the past seven games with Ellis dealing with ankle and family issues and over the past week he's chipped in a nice 11.5 PTS and 2 treys per game. He can score in bunches (December saw him hit for double-digits in 11 of 14 games), so watch how the playing time shakes out once Ellis returns and if Belinelli can stay in the rotation, he can be a useful source of points and threes down the stretch.

What to do about A-Rod?

noreply@blogger.com (Randy Marquis) — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 07:12:00 +0000

Reports from Tampa indicate Alex Rodriguez will attempt to play this season with a torn labrum in his hip. If he opts for surgery, recovery could take from six weeks to four months depending on your source.

For those who have already drafted or are in keeper formats and are the no longer proud owners of A-Rod, all you can do at this stage is rub the nearest rabbit’s foot and hope that he can avoid surgery until after the season. Even at 75%, A-Rod should still compile numbers to keep him among the top players at the third base position.

If your league hasn’t yet drafted, the question now is: where should A-Rod go off the board? Before the injury, he belonged with just a handful of players considered a possible first overall selection. But now…well, it’s down to the holy trinity of Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez for the top spot, with maybe a David Wright crashing a few draft parties. A-Rod will have to be content to slum it with the likes of Miguel Cabrera and Grady Sizemore a few picks down.

So the question is: do you feel lucky? Well, do you? It will take a gutsy owner to pick A-Rod inside the top 10. You could argue that after Pujols, Reyes, Ramirez and Wright are off the board, Cabrera, Sizemore, Josh Hamilton and even Ryan Howard or Ryan Braun are franchise cornerstones worthy of ascension above a hobbled A-Rod. Until you start considering names like Chase Utley (hip), Johan Santana (elbow) and Manny Ramirez (sanity), the risks of taking A-Rod probably outweigh the rewards.

That said, this same time last season many owners shied away from picking Pujols with a similar fear of the knife (elbow surgery). Prince Albert, however, not only played virtually the entire season (148 games), he actually outpaced his 2007 performance with 37 HR, 116 RBI and a near career best .357 average. Mind you that A-Rod is nearly six years Pujols’ senior, the injury is in a different and more crucial area and A- Rod plays a more defensively demanding position. Yet it’s possible those brave enough to grab A-Rod late in the first round this year could well reap the same rewards as those who nabbed Pujols in a similar spot last year.

If you’re willing to assume the risk, drafting A-Rod could return a huge reward…or you could lose it all. But if your money is in bonds (not Barry), then grab a Ryan Braun and enjoy the modest returns.

So…do you feel lucky, punk?

P.S. This news has a ripple effect on the draft values of other Yankee players like Mark Teixeira, Johnny Damon and, indirectly, CC Sabathia and Mariano Rivera. Some owners will downgrade Teixeira and Damon figuring the loss of A-Rod will limit their run production opportunities. Be on the lookout for steals here, since even minus A-Rod, the production of Teixeira, Damon and others isn’t likely to suffer much if at all. In fact, Rivera’s value might increase if the Yankees are involved in closer games as a result.