Commentary from Brad Gareiss and Matt Weller, Technical Analysts, GFT

AUD/USD Downtrend to Resume After Fast and Furious Squeeze

Despite the negative fundamental and technical situation for the AUD/USD, rates have stormed higher in a clear short squeeze over the past 12 hours. With rates approaching near-term Fibonacci retracement resistance at .9780 and the previous highs at .9840, the bounce is likely to peter out soon.

Candlestick Daily: Picking up the Pieces After Bernanke

CURRENCY	CURRENT BIAS	POTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Short Term)		Looking to sell bounces to fib retracements at 1.2930 and 1.2960. See full report for more details
GBP/USD (Short Term)		Bouncing slightly from key psychological support at 1.50, next resistance at 1.5100 and 1.5180.
USD/JPY (Short Term)		Sharp drop finding support at 101.00, looking to buy dips toward 101.00 over the course of today's trade. See full report for more details.
USD/CHF (Short Term)		Yesterday's breakout buy trade invalidated, rates essentially unchanged from yesterday's report after rollercoaster 24 hours.
USD/CAD (Short Term)		Clear bullish channel intact, looking to buy dips toward 1.0300
AUD/USD (Short Term)		Bullish candlestick pattern may point to larger bounce if rates break above .9700
NZD/USD (Short Term)		Bouncing back from .8000 psychological support, but resistance expected at .8100 and .8200. See full report for more details.

EUR/AUD: Buy Shallow Dips after Break to New 18-Month Highs

The EUR/AUD has surged higher over the past 24 hours, reaching its highest price since November 2011 earlier today. This breakout clears the road for further gains over the rest of the week, but the prudent traders may prefer to wait for a pullback to enter the recent uptrend at value.

Candlestick Daily: AUD/USD Sell Working Well, New USD/CHF Breakout Buy

CURRENCY	CURRENT BIAS	POTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Short Term)		Rally stalling as eyes turn to Bernanke - see full report for more details
GBP/USD (Short Term)		More weak economic data pushing rates lower, looking to sell on any bounces to the mid- or upper-1.5100s. See full report for more details
USD/JPY (Short Term)		Yesterday's trade invalidated, though continued trade above 103.00 opens the door for a run to 104.00 next
USD/CHF (Short Term)		Buy if USD/CHF breaks above .9762, stop at .9680, target at .9875. See full report for more details
USD/CAD (Short Term)		Previous buy trade hit target, bullish channel now testing key resistance levels at 1.0310 and 1.0335
AUD/USD (Short Term)		Trade in progress: Sold AUD/USD at .9815, stop at .9815, target at .9730. See full report for more details
NZD/USD (Short Term)		Still inching lower ahead of Bernanke, next supports at .8100 and .8070.

UPDATE: GBP/JPY Sell Off Resistance at 4-Year Highs

With a potentially high impact BOJ meeting taking place after today’s North American trade, we are looking to move the stop loss on our open GBP/JPY short down to 155.75 (above previous-support-turned-resistance from earlier this week) to lock in profits ahead of the statement and press conference. We will leave the original target unadjusted at 155.10, though more conservative traders may want to consider closing the trade out at current market rates to avoid the event risk altogether.

AUD/USD Sell: If at First You Don’t Succeed…

The big drop on AUD/USD has been one of the defining features of the forex market over the past few weeks as traders abandon carry trades for the safety (and relatively strong growth) offered by the U.S. Dollar. Though we were stopped out of a previous short trade on yesterday’s bounce, the recent price action and nearby resistance level point to another sell opportunity today.

Candlestick Daily: USD/CAD Long Approaching Target, New USD/JPY Buy Chance

CURRENCY	CURRENT BIAS	POTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Short Term)		Turning lower after rallying to 1.2900 round handle last night - key support sits down at 1.2800.
GBP/USD (Short Term)		Collapsing after poor CPI data, next target for bears at 1.5100. See full report for more details.
USD/JPY (Short Term)		Buy if USD/JPY breaks above 1.0305, stop at 102.75, target at 103.90. Move stop to breakeven on rally to 103.35 following entry.
USD/CHF (Short Term)		Still rangebound between resistance at .9750 and support at .9600
USD/CAD (Short Term)		Trade in progress: Bought USD/CAD at 1.0225, stop at 1.0225 (breakeven), target at 1.0285. See full report for more details.
AUD/USD (Short Term)		Yesterday's sell trade stopped out, but rates now appear to be resuming downtrend off Monthly R3 Pivot
NZD/USD (Short Term)		Turning lower off Monthly Pivot Point resistance at .8211, room down toward .8100 or .8070. See full report for more details

USD/CAD Set to Bounce from Bullish Trend Line

The USD/CAD is approaching a clear area of support that may present a low risk buying opportunity soon. Rates have been rallying within a clear bullish channel over the past two weeks, and the current pullback leaves the pair just above the lower end of the channel and previous-resistance-turned-support near the Monthly R1 Pivot at 1.0220 (a development we hinted at in this morning’s Candlestick Daily report). No trade opportunity is guaranteed to work, but the convergence of technical support levels around 1.0220 point to a higher-probability buy opportunity.

Candlestick Daily: Quick AUD/USD Sell Opportunity as Dojis Abound

CURRENCY	CURRENT BIAS	POTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Short Term)		Consolidating in quiet trade in the mid-1.2800s, see full report for more details
GBP/USD (Short Term)		Trading timidly around 1.5200, break above may suggest larger bounce
USD/JPY (Short Term)		Potential for modest pullback to overnight lows at 102.00 support
USD/CHF (Short Term)		Rangebound between resistance at .9750 and support at .9600
USD/CAD (Short Term)		Friday's buy trade invalidated, but longs still favored on a pullback to the lower-1.0200s. See full report for more details
AUD/USD (Short Term)		Sell AUD/USD above .9775, stop at .9815, target at .9705. Move stop to breakeven on drop to .9735.
NZD/USD (Short Term)		Bouncing strongly off lows, potential for further gains toward .8200 round handle

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