If you think you are getting frustrated all the back and forth, then trust me, you are not alone. For the past few weeks we have been bouncing all over the map and tape like this isn’t fun. However, it’s important that we don’t fall prey to settling on a favorite directional bias. Get used to feeling lost as that is modus operandi of what a trader is facing every single day. As a matter of fact, the sooner we embrace this simple fact the better we’ll do on a long term basis.

Besides our price patterns we have a NLBL at 1642.5 (still from the June contract) which expires tomorrow evening. If we happen to reverse and breach it then I would take that as a credible long signal. Until that happens I am in bearish mode. By the way – did I mention I hate FOMC days?

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

The post Fakeout Sell Signal appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

The spoos have been pushing sideways overnight and I’m sensing a bit of ambivalence here. So let me lay things out for you guys as there is little gray zone left here. That 25-hour SMA is holding thus far and it better as this thing has to get out of the gate once and for all lest the bulls fumble the ball and watch the bears run off with it. A quick drive lower is tolerable until exactly 1632.25. If that one breaches then we have a fake out sell situation and we’re back in bearish mode.

Here’s the NQ traversing the 25-hour SMA. So far so good but unfortunately today once again is an FOMC day with an announcement scheduled in the afternoon. Which probably means mind numbing tape until Bernanke holds his press conference at 2:30pm EDT, at which point volatility hell breaks loose again. So watch your six today!

Nothing on the FX front this morning but I did run into a few goodies on the commodities front:

Cheers,

The post Wednesday Morning Briefing appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

The next and final hurdle is 3004 on the continuous NQ contract – if you use September the NLBL is placed at 2,997.75. However, I believe that for our purposes it is best to use the continuous contract.

On the spoos we are looking at a 1648.5 NLBL standing in the way of a squeeze higher.

By the way there was some talk about a VIX Buy signal yesterday and let me assure you that nothing could be further from the truth as the VIX closed above the Friday close on Monday. Please revisit the rules on the cheat sheet if there is any confusion.

Corn has managed to gyrate itself higher and meet up with its 100-day SMA. At the same time it’s now encountering upside resistance via the 25-w and 100-w SMAs. So I think this is not a bad place to be short until about 682.

EUR/CHF – yesterday’s RTV Buy is still active but is now questioned by an inside period. Per the rules a short trigger tomorrow would close out the long position and put us into a short. Frankly I’m not too eager to get into a short as we’re still sitting on top of the 25-week SMA. But if we push below that a short position might just drop us into the 100-week SMA.

GBP/JPY finding support at the 100-day SMA as well as the 25-week SMA.

USD/CAD testing its daily NLBL – as you can see it already touched its 25-week SMA and I think a push above 1.0216 would declare the previous SMA breach as failed and trigger a long signal.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

The post Inching Forward appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

The E-Mini has been clinging to the 25-hour SMA but is currently pushing toward a NLSL slightly below. I would want to be short if it drops below – long if it recovers the SMA.

Similar idea on the NQ – that 25-hour needs to hold to finally push us out of this dreaded sideways churn zone.

On the FX side it’s all about the Yen today. USD/JPY now above its 100-hour SMA and if that NLSL at 95.005 holds up I want to be long.

Cheers,

The post Tuesday Morning Briefing appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

As strange as it may sound – it’s not the setups you took that lead to your financial demise. We all pick losing trades, that’s part of the game and assuming proper money/campaign management a consistent hit rate above 60% puts you into a very solid edge. No, what gets most traders are the trades they did not take. Once you start cherry picking technically valid setups you’re already steering a sinking ship. You either don’t have a system and a demonstrable edge, or you’re too emotional to follow it in the first place. Either way, walk away from trading and try your luck in Vegas instead – at least there you get pretty girls serving you drinks.

Trading successfully and consistently on the other hand really isn’t that complicated – figure out what works and then do the same thing over and over again. This may sound a bit trite but we all stand on the shoulders of giants and there are many systems out there that will give you a positive edge. If you are able to stick to the game plan and put your ego and emotions aside it can be one of the most rewarding (and profitable) endeavors of your life. On the other hand, if you cannot then it may become a very sobering experience which, if nothing else, will teach you a lot about yourself.

If you paid attention on Friday afternoon then you should be long the spoos (or SPX) right now as it triggered its RTV Buy threshold of 1635 (Sept contract). As I’m typing this it’s however pinned below a NLBL just 1.75 handles higher and there’s another one at 1642.75. I think this setup flies or dies here – above 1643 the bulls are back in charge – until then we could still see some surprise plunge lower. Be on your guard but stick with the setup. It’s permissible to be short below that NLBL as an alternative to riding it lower into the stop. As long as you have a plan before taking out a trade instead of following your emotions.

Similar picture on the NQ – the RTV Buy has long triggered and once again we have two NLBLs standing in the way.

Update on the EUR/CHF – the RTV Buy was triggered and I also wanted to show you guys the context on the weekly which seems rather supportive here. Nothing to do here until our stop is hit.

RTV Buy also triggered on the GBP/CHF – I really like the context here and I hope some of you guys grabbed this one. Again nothing to do here until we’re stopped out or head into target (mine is near the upper 100-day BB).

Once again we have a TON of setups this afternoon – so let’s dive right in:

Did I promise too much? More setups than you could shake a stick at! Get to work steel rats but keep it frosty.

Cheers,

The post Persistence Pays Off appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

As you know we walk the walk here at Evil Speculator. I’ve been doing this for almost five years and counting and you’ve watched me do what I do on a daily basis. You can’t fake the mojo in this game – either you’re packing a consistent edge or your audience is going to leave for greener pastures. In that spirit let’s dispense with the platitudes and instead do what we do best:

Alright – as I said, we have a TON of setups tonight but all of them are entries which will only be valid starting Sunday night – hence the title of this post. I will list them with minimal commentary as everything you need to know is on the chart.

The spoos keep everyone guessing but fortunately the entry range is now compressing. We’ve got an RTV Buy and inside day entry starting Sunday night. Triggers on the chart.

Ditto on the NQ

Inside day setup on the EUR/USD – gets more interesting below the 1.3231 NLSL.

Gold kissing its 25-day SMA and will most likely in an RTV buy and inside day configuration on Sunday night.

Quite a bit more looming below for my intrepid subs – please step into my lair:

So, was I promising too much? Frankly, it really doesn’t get much better than this. We have a plethora of setups awaiting us Sunday night and until then I wish you an enjoyable pre-summer weekend.

Cheers,

The post Sunday Night Special appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

Here’s yesterday’s E-Mini session via the Zero indicator. It was a pretty smooth session and the Zero Lite was pointing the way right from the get-go. The are usually early signs of a squeeze – often it’s preceded by a sell-off session, the tape picks up where it left off despite having plunged lower overnight, and the Zero signals spikes higher in the first 30 minutes of the NYSE session. From there it’s usually one big squeeze into the close. Very entertaining to watch and if you were loading up on short positions the day earlier you found yourself in a world of hurt. Didn’t I mention a day or so earlier that I was anticipating the possibility of monkey business?

Post squeeze the spoos have settled down a little and are traversing a now completely horizontal 100-hour SMA. The 25-hour is rising from below and we’ll probably see at the beginning of the NYSE session if it’s good for a lift higher. Strictly short term speaking I would be long above the NLBL and short below the 25-hour SMA.

However there are considerations on the daily perspective as well which I deem noteworthy and I’ll cover it this morning so you guys are fully prepared heading into the day. Yesterday’s run higher breached the Wednesday shooting star’s high and thus triggering a Failed Shooting Star as well as an RTV Buy trigger at exactly 1632.50. Again, that’s a daily setup and since we’re trading back below it right now you will most likely have a chance to jump into the fray should we proceed higher.

Purely technically speaking we also now have an RTV Sell setup with a trigger at the 1590.75 NLSL. So if the tape continues to whipsaw all over the place we now have at least two inflection points to hang our hats on. Anywhere in between I suggest you stay the heck away and let this play out, unless of course you enjoy playing the swings.

The NQ in a similar configuration as the spoos and the 25-hour is also rising from below, thus wedging price between two inflection points. This ought to get interesting!

Now on to the Forex side – we have a ton of setups today – here’s cable, our first runner up. Nicely retesting its 100-hour SMA with a NLSL right below. Good inflection point and the rough triggers are shown on the chart.

Cheers,

The post Friday Morning Briefing appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

How often this beast is going to swing back and forth I do not know. But what I do know is that we are accumulating signs of distribution while the market is unable (or unwilling) to pick a direction. Personally I am not going to over complicate this situation as limbo tape like this is designed to do just that – it drives you crazy and either makes you change your mind on a daily basis or gives you just enough to support whatever directional bias you may have arrived at.

I’m a simple man so I’m going to dumb it down for us all: At 1642.75 we have a very juicy new NLBL which will need to be breached in order to break us out of the current down trend and hand the steering wheel back to the bulls. At 1590.75 there’s a NLSL which roughly lines up with our weekly RTV Sell trigger I talked about this morning (go look it up if you want to know more about that). In between we are basically stuck in fifty-two shades of pain – it’s a no-man’s land of directional uncertainty that will squash your ambitions of picking a low or a high here.

Since we’re on the subject – here’s another contract that has been giving a lot of folks some grieve lately. Silver has been stuck in a one-month sideways formation which was only briefly interrupted by a fast plunge last Friday. Since then it’s been slowing down and we are now faced with a triple inside period. A rare beast indeed and despite all the churn I’m tempted to grab a breach here, whenever it happens. Not that I expect this thing to be trending anytime soon but with a bit of luck and scotchtape we may get fast f-u candle in the right direction.

Cheers,

The post Fifty-Two Shades Of Pain appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

You surely remember the volume hole which I have been highlighting here over the past week or so. Overnight our equity future trifecta has descended lower and the E-Mini is once again trading below 1600. But that is only part of the story – in order to understand the implications of a drop lower let me show you our weekly panel:

It just so happens that the weekly SPX chart has us in a potential RTV Sell setup. There’s the spike high, then two weekly lower closes, then one higher which primes the pattern. All that’s needed now is a drop through 1598.23 and we have ourselves a weekly short entry.

What makes this issue more pressing right now as I’m typing this is that the spoos are but a few ticks away from that very inflection point – due to the fair value delta the trigger here is at 1590.75. I think we have an excellent long here with but a few ticks worth of risk. But if she breaches 1590.75 then I am going to be short with a stop above 1640.00.

For some that stop may be a bit rich but for me it represents 1R and thus you need to adjust your position sizing so that you will not lose more than 1% or 2% max of your assets should you get stopped out. That in fact is the position sizing rule Scott and I use for CrazyIvan and we will impart more pertinent information about our position sizing rules in the near future.

Here’s the daily on my Ninja chart via the Kinetick feed – when I pulled that chart I was still looking the old contract (we are rolling over into August today – ES U13 – the original spoos!) so go by the TOS data. Either way, please note the NLSL which is located at 1590.75 precisely at our RTV Sell trigger. Happy coincidence I guess

Public Service Announcement: The spoos are rolling over into the August contract today (i.e. ES U13 or ES 09-13) – make sure you’re not getting caught looking at the wrong contract this morning.

Happy hunting but keep it frosty – this is only one trade out of thousands in your trading future. I know some of you are itching to get short but do yourself a favor and don’t get over exposed.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

The post Special Morning Alert appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

I’m running a bit behind tonight, so let’s dive right in. As you can see this morning’s RTV Buy setup on the spoos has now officially gone where technical setups go to die. Once those two short term SMAs were taken out the ensuing plunge was pretty much procedural. If you were still short then congrats to you – there’s not much to do right now as we are touching tentative support near the lower 100-hour BB, however I don’t see a pressing reason to jump ship here (or to start buying for that matter). Let’s see what the close brings us.

A bit more context here on the volume profile chart. Once again the 1605 mark is where we see a volume gap all the way down to roughly 1595 – give or take a tick. Last time the bears attempted to slash through it but failed miserably. Frankly I’d love to see them try again as a breach would probably result in a plunge lower.

More productively I would look for potential buying interest near 1605 – if it fails and drops lower it’s permissible to start accumulating a few (and only a few) short positions which would be considered extremely speculative unless you are already delta negative right now. A drop through 1594.75 will most likely result in a surge lower. Like you guys I don’t have a crystal ball but that’s how I see it play out based on what I see on my charts.

A quick and pertinent heads up – VIX:VXO currently suggests they may try a bit of monkey business ahead of the close. That’s short term and does not affect the overall picture of what I’m suggesting above. Whether or not it happens today – remember that volatility spikes will always generate strong counter moves – it’s a bit like Newton’s third law of motion. FWIW – this one of the reason why most bears lose in bears market – they are unable to deal with aggressive counter spikes which are an inherent side effect of rising volatility (you see this less in late stage falling volatility trending markets).

Natgas may be painting a last kiss goodbye – I would use the 100-hour SMA as my line in the sand. Once that daily NLBL has been breached the bulls are running the show again.

A few FX setups for my intrepid subs – please step into my lair:

Cheers,

The post Technical Damage appeared first on The Evil Speculator.