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Calculated Risk: Rail Traffic Declines Slightly in November

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:56:00 -0500

From the Association of American Railroads: Rail Time IndicatorsIn October 2009, U.S. freight railroads originated 1,100,714 carloads, an average of 275,179 carloads per week. That’s down 15.3% from October 2008 (when the weekly average was 324,836 carloads) and down 0.3% from September 2009 (when the weekly average was 276,137 [...]

The Big Picture: Financial Lessons From the Meltdown

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:30:28 -0500

Brilliant:

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Out of Control: Don't Believe the Hype on Federal "Insourcing"

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:30:00 -0500

Get ready for some spin from the White House on the supposed cost savings of insourcing (or de-privatizing) federal work, writes Professional Services Council president Sam Soloway in an excellent column at Washington Technology. As Soloway notes, these claims will have been based on fuzzy math that utterly underestimates [...]

macroblog: Small businesses, small banks, big problems?

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:23:30 -0500

In a speech on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart drew some connections between the current commercial real estate (CRE) problems and the prospects for a small business-led recovery.

The starting point was an observation made in an earlier macroblog post that identified the important role [...]

demography.matters.blog: On soldiering and migration

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:21:00 -0500

Yesterday was Remembrance Day in Canada, the two minutes of silence starting on the 11th minute of the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month commemorating the 65 thousand war dead of the First World War. These dead, like Caanda's other war dead, as in other nations, [...]

winterspeak.com: I love this

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:10:00 -0500

There is so much right with this post:

“All speakers are equal but some of the speakers are more equal then others”

The more I exposed to the different loudspeakers, the more I’m learning that the horn-loaded loudspeakers are the most interesting creatures. Nope, not because they [...]

CoreEcon: Tobin tax: Financing Australia’s current account deficit

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 16:05:55 -0500

On Wednesday I wrote that people who advocate a Tobin tax are revealing that their understanding of risk is at the level of static risk management rather than higher level of dynamic risk management. Let me use an example to explain what I mean.

Australian banks make more loans than [...]

Environmental and Urban Economics: Measuring the Output of Economists

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:44:00 -0500

All academic fields have an index numbers problem. To collapse a scholar's lifetime output into a single index of quality, we must agree on how to add up "apples" and "oranges". Do 3 QJE papers = 412 Journal of Junk Food Publications? How much does your star status go up [...]

Ideas: Plumbing and indirect causation

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:42:00 -0500

In both my price theory textbook (webbed) and Hidden Order, I point out that one cannot safely assume that changing one thing in a system leaves everything else unchanged; the context there is the effect of changing one element in a transaction, such as the price, the terms the [...]

winterspeak.com: The Public Purpose of Banking

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:36:00 -0500

While Lloyd Blankfein claims bankers are worth Billions, even as they destroy Trillions, it's worth taking a look at what the public purpose of banking is. Chicago economists, sit back down, the public purpose of banking is not to enrich their shareholders any more than the public purpose of pharmaceutical [...]

Businesspundit: So What? How to Communicate What Really Matters to Your Audience: A Book Review

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:25:29 -0500

How do you sell something? Do you start with “I want to tell you about _____?” Do you introduce yourself by your job description, then try your best to keep eye contact as your audience’s attention wanders?

If you do, stop. The people you’re addressing don’t care [...]

Mises Economics Blog: Fumbling the Antitrust Football

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:14:49 -0500

Tonight the National Football League will telecast the first Thursday night game of the season on the league-owned NFL Network. Football fans might wonder why the NFL, which generally plays on Sundays and Monday nights, would force teams to radically alter their weekly routines to play on Thursdays. While the [...]

Calculated Risk: FHA on DAPs: "Too many homeowners not equipped for home ownership"

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:11:00 -0500

The FHA commented on the damage caused by the Downpayment Assistance Programs (DAPs) today. These DAPs circumvented the FHA down payment requirements by having the seller funnel the "down payment" to the buyer through a "charity" (for a small fee of course). The FHA attempted to stop this practice, but [...]

HSH Associates Financial News Blog: All of the Homebuyer Tax Credit Info In One Place

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:57:09 -0500

While many of you have been keeping tabs on our regularly-updated post on the homebuyer tax credits, we wanted to take it a step further by writing another post which provides most of (if not all) the links and information you’ll need to answer any more questions you may [...]

Marginal Revolution: Innumeracy can get you killed

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:23:00 -0500

"Statistically, it is very dangerous, but I have lived here a long time and I don't feel like I'm in any danger."

That is Justin Fenton, the Baltimore Sun's crime correspondent.

The quote comes from a longer article by a British reporter who switched places with his Baltimore counterpart because he wanted [...]

Freakonomics: Give Me More of Your Notable Quotations

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:08:34 -0500

Since last week's posting elicited many helpful comments, let me repeat it this week in hope of getting even more input: I'm starting to think about my annual list, run by the Associated Press, of the top 10 most notable quotations of the year.

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The Big Picture: Registered Rep Webcast: “Coffee Break”

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:00:55 -0500

Number of comments: 2

I am doing a 1 hour webinar (what a terrible word) this afternoon from 4-5:00 pm

You can register here.

[...]

Mises Economics Blog: New Dynamic Blogroll

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 13:43:25 -0500

We've just replaced the static "Outside Links" list on the blog sidebar with a JavaScript-enabled dynamic blogroll, which provides previews of the latest posts from the top blogs dedicated to economics and liberty.

Yet another reason to make the homepage of the Mises Economics Blog a daily destination frequently' [...]

The Big Picture: 30 year bond auction was light

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 13:24:26 -0500

Number of comments: 1

The record $16b 30 year bond auction was light as the yield was a few bps above where the when issued was trading and the bid to cover at 2.26 was the weakest since May and below the ‘09 average of 2.43. Indirect bidders totaled 44% which is about in [...]

Calculated Risk: Hotel RevPAR off 11.8 Percent

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 13:20:00 -0500

Number of comments: 0
From HotelNewsNow.com: Boston leads RevPAR gains in STR weekly numbers Overall, in year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy fell 3.6 percent to 54.8 percent, average daily rate dropped 8.5 percent US$97.19, and RevPAR decreased 11.8 percent to US$53.29. Click on graph for larger image [...]

Don't Mess With Taxes: Is the IRS hanging onto your refund?

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:59:00 -0500

It does if your name is on one of the 107,831 refund checks that bounced back to the agency as undeliverable mail.

While the number of checks is tiny compared to the millions who file returns and get refunds, the amount that's in a holding pattern is huge.

The [...]

Marginal Revolution: Assorted links

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:50:00 -0500

1. Undercover economist eats with Naked Chef.

2. Genetics and success, from Atlantic Monthly.

3. List of hot people in Tokyo.

4. Terse answers from Uwe Tellkamp. I guess he is tired from having written an almost 1000-page book. I really liked this one.

5. Summary of recent inequality [...]

Businesspundit: Say Goodbye to Debit Overdraft Fees

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:49:47 -0500

The Fed today announced that, starting next July, banks can no longer charge overdraft fees on a debit card or when a customer is using an ATM. That new law is moot if a customer has agreed to pay charges for overdrawing their account. Bloomberg [...]

HSH Associates Financial News Blog: Jobs: “One of the Great Challenges That Remains”

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:43:29 -0500

President Obama announced today that a jobs summit will be held at the White House next month in order to recast legislative attention to a sector of the economy that has worsened:

“This is one of the great challenges that remains in our economy, a challenge that my administration is [...]

Businesspundit: Straightforward Anchorman John King Replaces Lou Dobbs

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:36:30 -0500

CNN announced today that John King will be replacing Lou Dobbs on CNN. Dobbs unexpectedly resigned from CNN yesterday after roughly 30 years with the network. State of the Union anchor John King will replace Dobbs early next year. The New York Times has the [...]

The Big Picture: China Exports by State

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:30:26 -0500

Number of comments: 10

Pretty neat infographic, via Visual Economics:

click for ginormous graphic

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Freakonomics: Sand Dunes on Mars

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:28:16 -0500

If you've never really gotten a good look at Mars, here's your chance: The Big Picture has collected 35 striking photographs from the NASA Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, which has been orbiting and photographing the planet since 2006.

[...]

voluntary Xchange: Cool Science: Off-the-Fault Earthquakes

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:25:00 -0500

Rumblings away from fault-lines may just be aftershocks from old quakes rather than precursors of the next one.

Really, really, old aftershocks – running into the hundreds of years.

So … the earthquake risk in place like Missouri and South Carolina – which have had devastating earthquakes in the [...]

Businesspundit: Reebok EasyTone Shoes Promise to Tone Your Butt. Fad Alert!

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:13:40 -0500

Number of comments: 1

Reebok–remember that brand?–recently came out with its new EasyTone sneakers. These women’s shoes are built to tone and firm your bottom while you walk. WalletPop has a good analysis of what’s behind the butt-firming EasyTone:

These sneakers apparently build your body 12 different ways, just [...]

The Big Picture: U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HEADED FOR 12.0-13.0%

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:00:36 -0500

Number of comments: 1

David A. Rosenberg is Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff, with a focus on providing a top-down perspective to the Firm’s investment process. Mr. Rosenberg has earned both Bachelor of Arts and Master of Arts degrees in Economics from the University of Toronto. Prior to joining Gluskin Sheff, [...]

Angry Bear: HR3962 as Passed: the importance of close reading

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 11:48:00 -0500

Number of comments: 0
by Bruce Webb

H.R.3962:
Affordable Health Care for America Act (Engrossed as Agreed to or Passed by House).

Back in July I singled out what I thought was the single most important provision of the House Tri-Committee Bill in a post called Sec 116: Golden Bullet [...]

Mises Economics Blog: New Literature

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 11:33:25 -0500

A windfall for lovers of online classics

The Principles of Ethics, by Herbert Spencer, volume I and volume II

Money and the Mechanism and Exchange, by W. Stanley Jevons

International Trade and National Income Multiplier, by Fritz Machlup

The State: Its History and [...]

The Big Picture: Pigeon Impossible

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 11:30:45 -0500

Number of comments: 1

Awesome 6 minute animation Pigeon Impossible:

via boingboing

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Out of Control: Reason's 2009 Webathon! Because Free Minds and Free Markets Aren't Free!

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 11:25:00 -0500

Free Minds and Free Markets Don't Come Free!

For the next week, Reason magazine Editor in Chief Matt Welch and I will be asking you to please help us keep Reason.org, Reason.com, Reason.tv, and Reason magazine going stronger than ever by giving a tax-deductible donation to Reason Foundation, the nonprofit publisher' [...]

Marginal Revolution: Markets in everything: 8 year old child custody for two Damien Hirsts edition

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 11:15:00 -0500

Kapernekas, a 49-year-old New York art dealer filed a suit in federal court in Manhattan claiming an interest in the two Hirsts, which have been valued at an estimated $47.6 million, court documents show. The custody suit, involving their 8-year- old daughter, was being heard in New York County Family Court.

Kapernekas has agreed [...]

Calculated Risk: FHA Reserves Fall Sharply, Well Below Required Minimum

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 11:08:00 -0500

Number of comments: 0
From David Streitfeld at the NY Times: Housing Agency Says Cash Reserves Are Down Sharply The Federal Housing Administration said Thursday morning that its cash reserves had dwindled significantly in the last year after a record drop in home prices.
...
The results of the F.H.A.’s annual audit showed [...]

Free exchange: Tim Geithner, double-talker

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 11:06:14 -0500

Straight talk on the dollar is hard to find

AH, THE painful contortions American leaders find themselves attempting whenever the dollar's relative strength or weakness is at issue. Earlier this week, Tim Geithner could be heard saying:I believe deeply that it's very important to the United States, to the [...]

Mises Economics Blog: JLS 21.4: On Rand and All That

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 11:05:48 -0500

The final issue of the Journal of Libertarian Studies is online, the last issue under the editorship of Prof. Roderick Long. It has some remarkable material in it. I was particularly impressed by Barbara Branden's reflection on how the negative reception of Atlas Shrugged affected Rand's outlook on [...]

HSH Associates Financial News Blog: HSH in the News

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 11:04:40 -0500

Don’t forget to check in on our “HSH in the News 2009” page located at the top-right section of the blog. News outlets across the country seek to quote not only our mortgage rates and statistics, but they often seek our commentary and opinions on the latest financial and [...]

Healthcare Economist: Risk Adjustment Tools for Measuring Physician Quality

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 10:56:05 -0500

A paper by Thomas, Grazier, and Ward (2004) analyzes a variety of risk adjustment software products. Using these six risk adjustment products to calculate physician efficiency scores, they found “moderate to high levels of agreement were observed among the six risk-adjusted measures of practice efficiency.” However:

“And even though our [...]

Kudlow's Money Politic$: The Congressional Assault on Fed Independence

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 10:45:00 -0500

Investors and political analysts should keep a sharp eye on the congressional assault on Federal Reserve independence. This is a transparent effort by members of Congress to use the financial-reregulation bills as a means of applying political leverage to stop the Fed from any 2010 midterm-election-year exit strategies that might [...]

The Big Picture: Banks Are Getting Desperate With Principal Reduction Offers

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 10:32:24 -0500

Number of comments: 1

Calculated Risk has a fascinating and detailed look at an UNSOLICITED Principal Reduction Loan Modification (pdf) offer from BofA.

A few background details:

The homeowner bought the house in May 2005 for $420,000. The homeowner refinanced in March 2006. This included a negatively amortizing adjustable rate mortgage (NegAM ARM) first with [...]

Peter Gordon's Blog: Who's counting?

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 10:30:00 -0500

Ken Orski reports the following:In a revealing article that should be required reading for smart growth advocates everywhere, Gerrit-Jan Knaap, executive director of the National Center for Smart Growth Research and Education at the University of Maryland, offers a sobering appraisal of Maryland's smart growth policy. Writing in the current [...]

Free exchange: That's a lot of wine

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 10:19:32 -0500

Australia drowning in a sea of surplus Sauvignon

AUSTRALIA has a lot of wine sitting around:Australia has an accumulated surplus of 100 million cases of wine that will double in the next two years if current trends continue, according to the report. The annual surplus is huge – equal [...]

Environmental Economics: A question for your benefit-cost analysis students

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 10:18:35 -0500

Is the widening of US HWY 421 in Boone efficient (i.e., a potential Pareto improvement)? Use these resources to answer the question below:

Estimated Cost: Construction $16.2 million Length: 1.1 miles About 45,000 vehicles use the road there daily Watauga County Quickfacts Value of time (use Table 1: PDF): [...]

Freakonomics: Crate Expectations

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 10:18:01 -0500

If you ever find yourself in a room full of pig farmers and want to start a fight, just ask about farrowing crates. A farrowing crate is a cage that confines a lactating sow. Its dimensions are tight - a typical crate enables a mother pig to move a few [...]

The Big Picture: The LLOYD’s Prayer

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 10:00:34 -0500

Number of comments: 10

via Bill King, we get this modest variation of The Lord’s Prayer:

THE LLOYD’s Prayer

Our Chairman,
Who Art At Goldman,
Blankfein Be Thy Name.
The Rally’s Come. God’s Work Be Done
On Earth As There’s No Fear Of Correction.
Give Us This Day Our Daily Gains,
And Bankrupt Our Competitors
As [...]

Heavy Lifting: Shut it down!!

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:45:00 -0500

The pay-for-grades program lasted about two seconds:A North Carolina middle school's cash-for-grades fundraiser has come to an abrupt end, school officials said Wednesday.Wayne County school administrators halted the plan at Rosewood Middle School in Goldsboro that would have allowed students to get 20 test points in exchange for a $20 [...]

Free exchange: Still dividing

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:42:23 -0500

The Berlin Wall's impact on trade patterns persists

TO FOLLOW up a bit on the discussion earlier this week on German economic integration, post reunification, here's a new research result from Volker Nitsch and Nikolaus Wolf:Why do borders still matter for economic activity? The reunification of Germany in 1990 [...]

Chronicle of the Conspiracy: OH BOY... A "JOBS SUMMIT"... THAT WILL HELP

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:33:00 -0500

Will there be beer? From DC-insider "Mick Danger":This “just in.”Mr. Obama is set to make the announcement at 9:15 a.m. in the Diplomatic Reception Room, an official said, before he leaves for a weeklong trip to Asia.

With health care and Afghanistan dominating the conversation in Washington, many Democrats have [...]

The Capital Spectator: THE RECESSION FADES AS QUESTIONS OF GROWTH LINGER

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:31:06 -0500

The news on new filings for unemployment benefits once again favors the idea that economic recovery is continuing. It’s a tenuous rebound, one ripe with caveats, including a big one we’ll discuss below. But it’s a rebound nonetheless.

The Labor Department today reports that initial jobless claims dropped to [...]

Stumbling and Mumbling: Capital & full employment

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:24:44 -0500

Duncan has endorsed Keynes’ old proposal to maintain cheap and easy money, and so achieve “an increase in the volume of capital until it ceases to be scarce”.
I’m not sure this will work. We’ve tried something like it twice, and on both occasions it proved unsustainable. [...]

Free exchange: Snow, the public option

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:23:03 -0500

The Chinese government stimulates weather, as well

HERE'S your bizarre news story of the day:Beijing’s airport canceled more than 60 flights and delayed more than 120 others today as the heaviest snowfall in the Chinese capital in at least 54 years blanketed the city for the third day this [...]

The Big Picture: Can You Find “Superior Information” About Markets?

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:15:35 -0500

Number of comments: 10

Yesterday, we discussed the NYU paper on how Market Timing beat Buy & Hold over the past few decades.

The WSJ reviews this idea today; They make some subtle distinctions about the idea of timing:

“A study from New York University’s Stern School of Business suggests market-timing can work [...]

Felix Salmon: Happy 10th birthday, Financial Modernization Bill!Felix Salmon

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:13:14 -0500

Ten years ago today:

SEC. SUMMERS: Let me welcome you all here today for the signing of this historic legislation. With this bill, the American financial system takes a major step forward towards the 21st century, one that will benefit American consumers, business, and the national economy for many years [...]

Mises Economics Blog: Securitization and Fractional-Reserve Banking

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:08:26 -0500

Securitization has provided banks with an alternative source of liquidity, different from central banks open-market operations. It has become a tool for spreading the illusion of savings-driven economic growth and for creating the FULL ARTICLE by Niikolay Gertchev

[...]

Free exchange: This counts as good news

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:08:17 -0500

The labour market bleeding is slightly less profuse

BY THIS, I mean the fact that only half a million people filed for unemployment benefits last week. Still, the 502,000 initial jobless claims reported this morning were fewer than economist forecasts and the lowest total since the beginning of the [...]

The Big Picture: Initial Claims continue downward trend but…

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:06:36 -0500

Initial Claims totaled 502k, 8k less than expected and its the lowest level since the 1st week of Jan when it was 488k (Oct ‘08 was time before that where claims were below 500k) and down from 514k last week which was revised up by 2k. Continuing Claims fell 139k [...]

Calculated Risk: MBA: Purchase Applications Fall to Nine Year Low

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:05:00 -0500

Number of comments: 0
The MBA reports: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increase, Purchase Applications at Nine Year LowThe Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. ...

The Refinance Index increased 11.3 percent from the previous week and the [...]

Mises Economics Blog: How the Fed Helped Pay for World War I

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:03:42 -0500

Just as kings debased coins to help pay for their wars, the Fed used inflation to help pay for US participation in World War I. It did so by creating and issuing dollars in return for government debt. FULL ARTICLE by John Paul Koning

[...]

EconLog: Bequest Question

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:02:00 -0500

(November 12, 2009 02:02 PM, by Bryan Caplan) According to "mistake" theories of inheritance, people leave bequests because they don't have enough information to spend all their assets before they die.Question: In a world with annuities and negative mortgages, how can anyone continue to believe this story?...' [...]

Mises Economics Blog: Obamacare is a Devastating Tax on the Working Class

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 08:59:10 -0500

Depending on the specific plan and other variables such as location, the healthcare plan amounts to a direct labor tax of approximately $300 per month for an individual, or nearly $700 for family coverage.FULL ARTICLE by Eric M. Staib

[...]

Free exchange: Is there a poverty trap?

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 08:37:58 -0500

Wouldn't workers keep trying to earn more?

GREG MANKIW is worried about the effect of rising implicit marginal tax rates (thanks to the phasing out of benefits for lower income workers) on earning incentives. He produces this chart to illustrate the "poverty trap".And he writes:It shows income after taxes' [...]

Division of Labour: Libertarian moments in the movies: "I wanna smoke a Cuban cigar the size of Cincinnati in the non-smoking section."

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 08:36:00 -0500

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Felix Salmon: The Fed cracks down on overdraftsFelix Salmon

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 08:32:27 -0500

Go Fed! In a very CFPA-ish move, the Fed has now announced that effective July 1, no bank can impose overdraft fees on its customers for ATM or debit card transactions, unless and until they explicitly ask for that “protection”. And they even come with a quote from [...]

EconLog: The Signaling Model of Education Standing on One Foot

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 08:30:00 -0500

(November 12, 2009 01:30 PM, by Bryan Caplan) Look at what people learn in the classroom. Look at what people do on the job. How much of a connection do you see?... [...]

Calculated Risk: Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims: 502 Thousand

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 08:30:00 -0500

Number of comments: 0
The DOL reports weekly unemployment insurance claims decreased to 502,000:In the week ending Nov. 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 502,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 514,000. [revised from 512,000] The 4-week moving average was 519,750, a decrease of [...]

Cafe Hayek: A Recipe for (Much) Greater Risk

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 08:15:19 -0500

Number of comments: 7

Here’s a letter that I sent yesterday to the Wall Street Journal:

Thomas Frank worries that, if Uncle Sam creates “One Big Regulator” for financial markets, this czar will be an industry insider who does more harm than good (”The Real Danger of ‘One Big Regulator’,” Nov. 11). Frank is [...]

Felix Salmon: One question for Sheila BairFelix Salmon

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 08:11:49 -0500

Paul Solman is taking questions for Sheila Bair. If I could ask her just one question, it would be about her actions taking over WaMu and wiping out all its senior unsecured debt. That's the wholesale interbank market right there, and in the wake of the WaMu collapse, banks [...]

The Big Picture: Morning stuff

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 08:10:54 -0500

The MBA said weekly purchases fell 11.7% to the lowest level since Dec ‘00 as the uncertainty over whether the home buying tax credit would be extended clearly froze activity. With it now being resumed into the spring, purchases should tick up again but we’ll get to see how much [...]

Felix Salmon: Micropayments datapoint of the dayFelix Salmon

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 07:52:00 -0500

Joe Brancatelli reports on airline fliers' stubborn refusal to pay even a nominal sum for wifi:

Passengers “want to be connected, [but] they want it to be free,” Doug Murri, Southwest Airlines senior manager of technologies, told a group of airline and entertainment executives this past summer. Alaska Airlines, testing' [...]

Marginal Revolution: Range voting

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 07:45:00 -0500

A few readers asked me to discuss range voting. Wikipedia defines it as following:

Range voting (also called ratings summation, average voting, cardinal ratings, score voting, 0–99 voting, or the score system or point system) is a voting system for one-seat elections under which voters score each [...]

Marginal Revolution: What I've been reading

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 07:24:00 -0500

1. Momofuku, by David Chang and Peter Meehan. This Nelson/Winter treatise on industrial organization teaches you the evolution of recipes and restaurants and (most of all) the mistakes made along the way. Smokiness is an important concept in Japanese food, pickling and fermentation are underrated cooking techniques, a cook can [...]

Economics Unbound: My investment choices....

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 07:15:01 -0500

...if anyone is interested.

Following my usual practice, I regret to inform you that I've reduced my investments in domestic equities. I think this play still has another unhappy act to run before the (perhaps) happy ending. But is there an intermission?

' [...]

Businomics Blog: Tight Inventories Limiting Sales

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 07:00:00 -0500

Business have trimmed inventories significantly--and that's starting to bite them in the sale. Here's the raw data:

There was good reason to cut inventories: sales were falling. This is a recession practice I recommend in Businomics. However, the tight inventories are now limiting sales [...]

EconLog: Health Care: Let the Games Begin

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 06:59:00 -0500

(November 12, 2009 11:59 AM, by Arnold Kling) Gene Steuerle writes, Here is the bottom line on how employers and employees together can maximize what they get from government. Many employers who don't provide insurance today will probably just choose to pay the tax ($400-per-employee under one scenario...' [...]

The Big Picture: Faber: Gold Permanently Over $1,000

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 06:57:06 -0500

Number of comments: 10

Here’s a interesting take: marx Faber says that Gold has permanently eclipsed the $1,000 level:

“Gold won’t fall below $1,000 an ounce again after rising 27 percent this year to a record as central banks print money to help fund budget deficits, said Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & [...]

Liberalism-Capitalism-Globalisation: Jag behöver din hjälp

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 06:46:31 -0500

Ett nytt barn, en ny film och en ny bok. Det är mina tre pågående projekt.

- Vi väntar vårt andra barn vilken dag som helst, och det upptar naturligtvis de flesta tankarna. Så bli inte förvånad om jag plötsligt bara är borta från allting ett tag.

- Jag arbetar också [...]

Greg Mankiw's Blog: Steuerle on Healthcare Reform

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 06:20:00 -0500

Gene Steuerle of the Urban Institute describes the maze of incentives embedded in the pending healthcare reform bill. [...]

Businesspundit: How Not to Pose With a Tree

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 06:00:08 -0500

[...]

Newmark's Door: "Par-a-noia strikes deep . . .

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 05:45:00 -0500

. . . into your hearts it will creep."

I've stoutly resisted pessimism and paranoia about our current fiscal and political situation. But this story is just a little bit scary.

San Francisco resident Carla Ruff's safe-deposit box was drilled, seized, and turned over to the state of California, marked "owner unknown." [...]

Worthwhile Canadian Initiative: What's the optimum net worth of a charitable organisation/university?

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 05:43:02 -0500

Last night I was chatting with someone who works for a think-tank. I work for Carleton University. We both work for charities. Like households, firms, and governments, charities have income and expenses, and a net worth. Consumer choice theory tells us, at least in principle, how much people should save, [...]

EconLog: Lessons from Banking History

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 05:40:00 -0500

(November 12, 2009 10:40 AM, by Arnold Kling) Piergiorgio Alessandri and Andrew G. Haldane write, Historically, the link between the state and the banking system has been umbilical. Starting with the first Italian banking houses in the 13th century, banks were financiers of the sovereign. Sovereign need was... [...]

Newmark's Door: "Lessons from the Rise and Fall of Delta Airlines"

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 05:20:00 -0500

One lesson I've heard in a number of contexts: "If you get the people parts right, it's easy to get the rest." [...]

Newmark's Door: "The Coming Collapse of the Municipal Bond Market"

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 05:18:00 -0500

Philip Greenspun has me thinking about shorting muni bonds.

See also the unhappy news in "Public Pensions Face Ugly Choices".

[...]

CoreEcon: Social Mobility Conference

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 05:16:21 -0500

I still have a few spare spaces for my intergenerational mobility conference at ANU on Monday 30 November. The conference will now be opened by Terry Moran, the Secretary of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet. So if it’s good enough for Australia’s most senior public servant…

Also, each paper [...]

Andrew Leigh: Social Mobility Conference

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 05:14:29 -0500

Also, each paper [...]

Newmark's Door: One of the potentially most important Supreme Court cases in a while

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 05:14:00 -0500

. . . is the Bilski case on patentability. Here are 40+ briefs that have been filed (and more will be posted soon). [...]

Felix Salmon: The shipping industry's $350 billion debtFelix Salmon

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 05:07:45 -0500

Landon Thomas's story on dodgy shipping loans has some absolutely astonishing numbers, the biggest of which is simply the size of the market, which he pegs at a whopping $350 billion.

The story is pegged to Eastwind Maritime, a shipper which went bust this summer owing $300 million on a [...]

Angry Bear: More on the Estate Tax

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 05:00:00 -0500

Number of comments: 0
by Linda Beale
(cross posted with ataxingmatter)

Tax Prof and its commenters

More on the Estate Tax--the Heritage Foundation speaks gobbledygook
hat tip to Tax Prof and its commenters

The Heritage Foundation, I'm afraid I've concluded, is not a "think tank" at all--it's a' [...]

EconLog: Book Update: Available for Order

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 04:52:00 -0500

(November 12, 2009 09:52 AM, by Arnold Kling) Finally, From Poverty to Prosperity is available for order at Amazon. It will be in stock there in a few days. I should warn you that it is an intellectually heavy book. It is not the sort of thing that... [...]

Felix Salmon: A child of 8 could be traded for that!Felix Salmon

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 04:48:35 -0500

Talk about alternative asset classes: Venetia Kapernekas, a New York art dealer, has traded her claim to part-ownership of two Damien Hirst works in return for custody of her 8-year-old daughter. Need I add that one of the Hirsts is entitled “In this terrible moment we are victims clinging [...]

Felix Salmon: Goldman Sachs's not very charitable foundationFelix Salmon

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 03:16:58 -0500

Geraldine Fabrikant gets her hands on the 2008 tax filing for the Goldman Sachs Foundation today, and it's pretty astonishing stuff:

The latest tax filing for Goldman Sachs’s foundation is as thick as a phone book. The list of trades is more than 200 pages, single spaced. Goldman, it seems, [...]

Environmental and Urban Economics: The New York Post is a Leading Academic Source for Ideas and Quotes

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 01:00:00 -0500

Number of comments: 0
As I try to finish the final draft of my new book, I found these letters, from angry New Yorkers who were frustrated by heavy rains knocking out the NYC subways in 2007, to be quite useful. The NY Post captures the voice of "real" New Yorkers. Somehow, the letters [...]

Ideas: The Motorola Droid

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 23:38:00 -0500

Friday I got a chance to play with the new Android phone at a local T-mobile store. For the most part, I like it. The one disappointment was the keyboard, which does not seem any better than the one on my G1. On the other hand, the D-pad on the [...]

Ideas: An Android Glitch

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 23:29:00 -0500

On the whole, I'm reasonably happy with the Android OS, but there is one problem I have observed in two unrelated applications and so suspect is coming from the operating system.

One of the applications is DocsToGo, which provides, among other things, a word processor that can read and' [...]

Division of Labour: Being rich enough to afford not being greedy

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 23:24:00 -0500

It strikes me that the film industry is a decent example of a competitive industry. Granted, states like mine (LA) provide tax credits for companies filming here, but there seems to be a highly competitive labor market, no salary caps (though the SGA seems to enforce wage floors), and lots [...]

Mises Economics Blog: "Intellectual Property and Libertarianism," Liberty magazine

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 23:03:37 -0500

My article Intellectual Property and Libertarianism was published last month in Liberty magazine (December 2009 issue). This article is based in part on a speech at Mises University 2009 (July 30, 2009; audio; video) and also on my What Libertarianism Is, which contains [...]

Division of Labour: Markets in Everything: Vaccine Line Walkers

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 22:46:00 -0500

An unemployed Gatineau man has been doing a modest but steady business in the past week by standing in line at flu clinics for people who cant line up themselves. And he says the citys security measures havent slowed him down. For $15 an hour, the man who calls himself [...]

Econbrowser: Politico Does Economic Analysis...

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 22:10:00 -0500

Be afraid; be very afraid.

From "'Created or saved' doesn't add up", by Joseph Lawler:

...[t]he "created or saved" numbers are meaningless. The administration purposefully devised the metric to be nebulous. Without a counterfactual, showing the trend of unemployment in the absence of the stimulus, it is impossible to know how' [...]