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The crisis and its lessons

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 22:49:00 +0000

The crisis and its lessons
Lecture by Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB
at the University of Venice
Venice, 9 October 2009

I. Introduction

Ladies and gentlemen,

It is a great pleasure for me to be at the University of Venice. Ca’ Foscari is one of the most prominent and vibrant universities in Italy. I know it is also one of the universities that is most open to international exchanges. Its blend of research excellence and cultural diversity makes it close to the ECB in spirit. The ECB is perhaps the most diverse central bank in the world in terms of its staff composition: more than 27 countries are represented in our ranks. And our economic departments constitute a relevant centre of economic analysis in Europe.

As a central bank, we are prime consumers of economic research. For this reason, we maintain very close interactions with the academic world. We import tools and ideas and are eager to employ excellent economists from centres of advanced economic studies such as Ca’ Foscari. At the same time, the ECB is an active source of cutting edge economic thinking. I was very happy to see that last year our electronic Working Papers Series – posted on our web-site – attracted some 4 million downloads. A number of those articles have made significant contributions to macroeconomic research.

I am also most delighted to be in Venice. This city talks both to the artist and to the economist. I have discovered that its name can be construed to signify its charm. As you will know, Francesco Sansovino, for example, claims that: "[i]t is held by some that this word VENETIA signifies VENI ETIAM, that is, come again, and again, for however often you come, you will always see new things, and new beauties." [1]

But, for all its beauty, Venice was never a place of idle contemplation for its citizens. My countryman and great scholar of European civilizations, Fernand Braudel, chronicles that wealthy Venetian merchants in the early 1500s used to instruct their agents to “never leave ‘ li danari mortti’, money lying dead.” “Sell quickly, even at a lower price, in order to ‘ venier presto sul danaro per un altro viaggio.’” [2] It would be nearly impossible to find a more fitting description of the inner force that moves a market economy. In a vibrant market economy, money does not rest and is used to serve the creativity and the effort of undertaking enterprises.

II. The financial crisis

Let me start my remarks by recalling the origins of the crisis as I see them.

Over past decades, our economies have greatly benefited from the effects of financial liberalisation and financial innovation. For example, the securitisation of assets has played a role in facilitating an efficient allocation of economic risks. It allowed the financial sector to offer credit for productive purposes, at more favourable conditions than was possible in the repressed credit systems of the past.

More recently, however, managing genuine economic risk gradually ceased to be the main concern of international finance. Instead, the creation and assumption of financial risk became the core activity of the financial industry. The decoupling of financial positions from the underlying flows of goods and services gradually created the conditions for a credit boom. The credit boom was reinforced by an asset price boom, which credit itself was partly sustaining. Both the credit and the asset price expansion found formidable amplifiers in the microeconomics of the financial markets and in global imbalances.

In the financial market, compensation schemes for bank loan managers weakened their incentive to conduct a prudent screening of loans. Executive pay was a function of overall volumes, which encouraged turn-over and the origination of loans. At the same time, risks could be shed – or so it seemed – by selling off the loan to other investors in the secondary market. As for these investors, increasingly complicated financial structures made it difficult for them to assess the quality of the assets that they were acquiring. They had to trust the originators. More than in the past, the viability of the financial system came to depend critically on trust and confidence.

On a global scale, a chronic shortage of savings in some industrialised economies had to be financed out of an excess of savings in other parts of the world. So, international intermediation provided a potent fuel to the expansion of finance.

In August 2007 – suddenly but not unexpectedly – trust and confidence started evaporating. The circular interactions between asset price appreciation, biased incentives, excessive complexity and global imbalances went into reverse. Market liquidity became scarce and investors extremely afraid of the risks that they had been exposing themselves to for so long. Finally, mid-September 2008, the collapse of a major financial player turned the re-pricing of risk into major financial panic. The chart of money market spreads tells this tale clearly.

[ Chart 1: Money market spreads during the turmoil]

As the collapse of confidence became evident, financial intermediaries made every possible attempt to restore liquidity buffers. Credit spreads soared. Financial market activity fell dramatically, and the global financial system came close to seizing up.

[ Chart 2: Money market spreads during the crisis]

The crisis triggered a freefall in economic activity.

Within a few months, from January to July 2009, the distribution of GDP projections for the current year shifted to the left, increasingly into negative territory. To fully appreciate the massive change in perspective that this brought for all of us, compare the range of outcomes that were considered likely in successive rounds of forecast updates.

In January, forecasters predicted on average a decline of 1.5% for this year. In March, they had become even more pessimistic, and they provided a decline of 2.5%. The uncertainty surrounding these forecasts was high, but even in March a decline of 4.5% was not seen as possible. This figure was outside the range of all forecasts and was a zero-probability event. Four months later, in July 2009, it became the central forecast. This shows the rapid and dramatic free-fall in economic activity. By now, in September, there has been a slight improvement, to a 3.9% contraction for this year.

[ Chart 3: The economic free fall]

Faced with such unprecedented challenges, central banks around the globe demonstrated a remarkable unity of purpose. Different economies, different channels of transmission called for different responses.

In the end, the action taken by the leading central banks paid off. If I can return to my first picture, money market spreads – a symptom of the lack of trust that had gripped financial transactions in the early autumn – retreated from their peaks. They are now back at levels that were prevalent before the intensification of the crisis.

[ Chart 4: Money market spreads: the decline]

III. The ECB’s response to the crisis

How did the ECB meet the challenge? The turmoil started on 9 August 2009. The ECB was in the vanguard among major central banks. It was first in identifying the severity of market distress, and the first to act on the very same day. As the financial debacle finally materialised, in the autumn 2008, the ECB’s approach to crisis management was diversified but consistent.

We activated both conventional and non-conventional instruments of policy. We cut our key policy interest rate by 325 basis points, bringing it to a level that has no historical precedent in post-World War Europe. In parallel, we adopted a wide spectrum of “non-standard” measures. They were designed to ensure that the reductions in our policy instrument were transmitted to the broader credit market and the economy at large.

These non-standard measures are part of what we collectively define as our policy of “enhanced credit support”.

[ Chart 5: Non-standard measures]

This policy comprises five building blocks:

First, full accommodation of banks’ demand for central bank liquidity at fixed interest rates in our refinancing operations.

Second, a further expansion in the list of assets eligible for use as collateral in our refinancing operations.

Third, a further extension of the range of maturities at which liquidity is made available to banks in our refinancing operations. The longest maturity is now one year.

Fourth, provision of liquidity in foreign currencies, notably US dollars.

Fifth and finally, a direct covered bank bond purchase programme aimed at reviving a segment of the financial market that is important in Europe.

Let me emphasise only a few selective aspects of this policy. First, our primary mission is to preserve price stability. It implies that the transmission of monetary policy impulses is functioning correctly and that the money market is not disrupted. In this new unexpected situation we had to tackle the paralysis of inter-bank transactions in the money market. The money market is where banks can refinance their assets as a precondition for rolling over their loans to the economy. The flow of credit is primarily channelled by banks in the euro area. A complete breakdown in the funding relationships that constitute the money market would have derailed the bank lending channel altogether. The interruption of the bank lending channel would have turned the financial crisis into a very profound depression. By granting unlimited access to central bank liquidity – the “fixed-rate full-allotment” tender procedures – we put banks in a position to maintain their crucial role in the financing of the real economy. By expanding the list of eligible collateral, we ensured that banks could refinance that large proportion of their assets that had become less liquid in the crisis. By extending the maturity of their liquidity provisions, we gave banks a more medium-term perspective in their liquidity planning. This measure greatly attenuated the maturity mismatch between assets and liabilities in banks’ books, which would otherwise have further deterred bank lending activity.

We have also been providing foreign exchange liquidity. This primarily took the form of US dollar liquidity backed by a swap facility with the US Federal Reserve System. The malfunctioning of the foreign exchange swap market had made the currency mismatch in banks’ balance sheets extremely severe. Thanks to our policy, they could count on ongoing access to foreign currency balances. This policy was made possible by the very close cooperation between central banks in the crisis.

Finally, the Governing Council’s decision to intervene directly in the financial market by purchasing covered bonds was meant to re-ignite activity in a market segment that is particularly important as a source of funding for banks.

IV. Liquidity and exit considerations

Our enhanced credit support policies have boosted market liquidity. Through that channel – as I showed a few minutes ago – the reductions in our policy instrument could be transmitted to a whole spectrum of interest rates that are used as re-setting benchmarks for adjustable-rate loan contracts. This has greatly benefited households and firms. But what is the link between liquidity and price stability? Will enhanced liquidity provision trigger inflation sometime in the less proximate future? In this respect, let me emphasise two important aspects of our exceptional policies.

The first aspect is related to the definition of liquidity. Our non-standard measures have increased central bank liquidity – cash reserves that the Eurosystem makes available to banks in refinancing operations. But this has not led to an increase in broader monetary aggregates. In fact, broad measures of money growth are decelerating in the euro area. In normal times, banks would use an increase in our liquidity provision to expand credit to households and enterprises. In current conditions, however, liquidity primarily takes the form of precautionary balances that certain banks are deliberately holding with the Eurosystem. As long as central bank liquidity serves at least in part banks’ precautionary motives, this extra liquidity will not result in higher inflation in the future.

These considerations bring me to the second aspect of our non-standard policies: the conditions for their unwinding. Exceptional times have called for exceptional measures. But we will need to phase out these measures once the rationale for their adoption fades away and the situation normalises.

The Governing Council believes that it would be premature today to think that the crisis has been overcome and conquered in a sustainable manner. So, it is not the time to exit yet. Our future decisions on the phasing-out of non-standard measures will be guided by a transparent exit strategy. This exit strategy has been designed around four cornerstones.

[ Chart 6: Cornerstones of the exit strategy]

First, it will be linked to our primary objective and thus to our monetary policy strategy. The crisis has not changed the ECB’s primary objective. This means that any non-standard measure whose continuation would compromise the maintenance of price stability at any time in the future will be undone promptly and unequivocally.

Second, the forward-looking initial design of the measures will help us wind them down when the time is ripe. The ECB’s non-standard measures were designed with exit considerations in mind. A number of measures – think of our refinancing operations – will phase out naturally by design. At the same time, the size and scope of the outright purchases have been calibrated so that they would not interfere with the implementation of appropriate liquidity conditions in a phase of interest rate increases.

Third, the ECB has the technical and institutional capability to act. The operational framework of the ECB proved very resilient at the start of the turmoil. It is also sufficiently flexible and reliable to fit all possible situations which could realistically arise in the future. On the institutional side, the Governing Council has the unfettered capacity to decide and institute appropriate policies whenever circumstances warrant this. The ECB rests on a strong institutional platform, with a clear dividing line between what pertains to the central bank and what belongs to the fiscal sphere of responsibility.

Fourth, the Governing Council can mobilise its reputation for swift and decisive action whenever that reputation will be required to support the credibility of its policies. Over the past decade, our institution has established a clear track record of steady-handedness. This is also because market participants know that we are permanently alert and that we act decisively and in a timely fashion when conditions so demand.

V. The current situation

The ECB’s “steady-handed approach” to conventional monetary policy action has not impeded, in fact it has strengthened, a swift transmission of policy changes to market rates and to credit conditions more broadly. This was possible for two reasons. First, steady-handedness makes policy changes more powerful. Private sector expectations regarding future interest rates adjust and move in a manner consistent with policy-makers’ intentions at all maturities. Second, interest rate reductions have been reinforced by our non-standard monetary policy measures. These policies have made financial intermediaries less reluctant to pass on the degree of credit easing that the ECB wanted to implement.

All in all, there are encouraging signs that the substantial stimulus introduced is gradually bearing fruit. The negative inflationary readings over the summer have been due to large declines in the price of crude oil in relation to the previous year. In this sense, the fall in inflation – by boosting the purchasing power of our citizens – has acted as an automatic stabiliser at a time in which the economic conditions were deteriorating.

Inflation expectations are a good measure of the degree to which the free fall in the economy and the dis-inflationary process could come to feed upon itself. They have remained stable around levels consistent with our definition of price stability.

[ Chart 7: Inflation expectations in the euro area]

The economy, too, is showing signs of stabilisation. After the strongly negative readings recorded earlier this year, economic activity in the second quarter is estimated to have declined by 0.2% relative to the previous quarter. In the period ahead, we expect to see a very gradual recovery. While the statistical risks to this outlook remain broadly balanced, there is no room for complacency and we are, as always, alert to any unexpected developments. On the upside, the impact of the macroeconomic stimulus packages and other policy measures may prove to be stronger than currently foreseen. On the downside, the negative feedback between the real economy and the still strained financial sector may prove more protracted than expected.

VI. Lessons to be learnt

What lessons can we learn from the financial crisis that has shaken our world so profoundly? The crisis has exposed the fundamental fragility of the international financial system. I had mentioned that the macroeconomic situation shows signs of stabilisation. We expect a very gradual recovery ahead, but substantial risks remain.

We have to consider all aspects of finance very seriously. The financial system needs to be as immunised as possible against its intrinsic tendency towards complacency, irresponsibility and self-destruction. Three intrinsic weaknesses need correction.

First, the pro-cyclicality of the financial system needs to be mitigated by mechanisms that can provide built-in stabilisers. The quality and quantity of bank capital and banks’ liquidity buffers have to be improved in good times to provide a sufficient buffer for bank equity to withstand the inevitable increase in credit risk when the cycle turns. The cyclicality of market economies is inevitable. But the financial system should not be allowed to amplify swings.

Second, the transparency of the financial structures needs to be enhanced. Financial innovation cannot be built upon – and exploit – gaps in investor information and a lack of financial literacy. Well-informed decisions by market agents are a key element of any functioning market economy. All institutions, instruments and markets that are of any relevance for systemic stability need to enhance their risk disclosure. The reach of financial regulation needs to be extended to better reflect the role of highly leveraged institutions and prevent abuse in the derivatives markets.

Third, short-termism in the design of financial contracts needs to be corrected. Market participants – traders, loan managers, risk committees and boards of directors – were given strong economic incentives to focus on short-term profits. Long-term value creation was not a concern in the pre-crisis world. Collectively, this resulted in excessive risk taking. In tune with the last G-20 pledge, a reform of the executive compensation schemes and practices is an essential part of our effort to secure financial stability.

Far from putting off the agenda for structural reforms, the crisis has made them more urgent. No segment of the market or category of players has been immune to the crisis. The list of areas that proved dysfunctional can be extended to include the risk management and credit assessment of banks, accounting standards, audit quality, supervision, and many more elements. No market segment or financial actor should escape profound rethinking. This rethinking should have the scope and ambition of a paradigm change. The new paradigm should be based on three notions.

First, medium-term and long-term sustainability in macroeconomic policies and financial strategies should replace the myopic perspective that is always a temptation. Herd behaviour in the financial markets might have two parallels in the macroeconomic sphere. These are: profligate fiscal policies in times of boom and over-accommodating monetary policy in downturns. A new medium-term perspective should concentrate policies on medium-term objectives. Like financial contracts, policies should not amplify economic fluctuations.

Second, authorities and major players in the financial scene should immunize themselves against complacency. The crisis has proved that unpredictable shocks, however unlikely, can compound in the aggregate. In these conditions, historical correlations of risks become an insufficient instrument to check the resilience of an institution or the system as a whole. A constant monitoring of resilience should become part of the new regime.

Third, the approach should be holistic. The global proportions of the crisis call for a rethinking of the links between financial behaviour and macroeconomic policies. This has two implications. The first concerns domestic governance. Major economies need to complement their micro-prudential apparatus with a new macro-prudential function. Macroeconomic resilience calls for a systemic analysis of risk. Macro-prudential supervision offers this type of analysis and can act as a countervailing force to the tendency of the financial system to amplify economic swings. A far-reaching reform in this direction is underway in the EU. A new European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) will be created which will detect risks to the EU financial system and issue warnings and recommendations to national supervisors.

The second implication concerns international macro-governance. Over the last year, efforts to find new fora in which risks to the global economic order can be identified, discussed and addressed have intensified. Throughout the turbulent times, coordinated guidelines have been put forward at the European and international levels by the Financial Stability Forum, the Eurogroup and the European Council. They were reflected in the declarations of the G-20 summits. The G-20 itself has emerged as the premier forum for international economic dialogue.

Within the G-20, I find it encouraging that there is now a broad consensus between the emerging market economies and the industrialised countries on the principal directions of financial reform. In this field, I see a very strong consensus in the global community of central banks. As first signs of recovery can be observed and as banks are returning to profitability, it is important to keep up momentum and to proceed with the further steps that are necessary to ensure that events of such intensity do not recur in the future.

Yet, in the new economic order that will emerge these fora – and each single macroeconomic authority that is represented at the table – will share a precisely defined responsibility: the correction of global imbalances. Trade and financial imbalances were a major source of instability in the pre-crisis world. Now, it is the precise mandate of the world economic leaders to identify a pattern of growth across countries that is more sustainable and balanced. They need to evaluate whether the macroeconomic policies that are enacted domestically by the major economic players are collectively consistent with more sustainable and balanced growth worldwide.

For this process to be effective, peer pressure needs to be made more compelling than it was in the past.

Let me say a few words on Italy.

The Italian economy is undergoing an unprecedented adjustment, as are virtually all developed countries throughout the world. Many Italian enterprises, in particular small and medium-sized ones, are currently dealing with very challenging times. I am confident that they will emerge from present hardships with leaner cost structures and a more efficient organisation of production processes. In the end, the entrepreneurial spirit that is in the genes of this nation will prevail.

The financial crisis, the macroeconomic response to it and the lessons that we need to learn have been the themes of my talk today. My main message is that despite all the difficulties, the crisis is an opportunity for this continent and for this country in particular. Italy is a country that has traditionally gained confidence in the severest of circumstances. I therefore hope that reflections on the causes and lessons of the crisis can contribute to economic reform that can bring a new era of progress for Italy.

First of all, the crisis has shown the health of private finance in Italy. Italy never indulged in the financial excesses of the recent past. It remains an economy, where finance is first and foremost support for real economic production. Strong saving propensities and prudent banking represent a platform of security from which the economy can restart.

But economic reforms cannot be delayed. The crisis can be the trigger for an ambitious plan to modernise the Italian economy and to make it more dynamic. Labour market institutions need to be overhauled to make labour compensation better reflect individual effort and firm-level excellence. The pricing chain – notably in the service sector – needs to be streamlined to increase the flexibility of prices. Welfare-enhancing positions that are a drain on disposable incomes and the economic potential of the country need to be discarded.

I would like to encourage policy makers to tackle these issues.

VII. Concluding remarks

Bold efforts by central banks and governments around the world have been effective in containing the propagation of a formidable shock. But short-term steps to alleviate the crisis need to be reinforced by longer-term reforms that can inhibit the development of bubbles, stabilise financial markets and provide greater financial security to households and businesses.

A number of elements and – one might even say “totems and taboos” – of the pre-crisis economic universe have now lost most of their value. This applies to individual financial players and business models alike. Other elements, however, have maintained their worth. It is on these latter elements that we should build the future of this continent.

The euro – the single currency – and the macroeconomic framework of the Union have certainly proved their strength in the last 12 months. The countries of Europe were not left to weather the storm alone. The financial maelstrom has not turned into any national debacle. A medium-term-oriented macroeconomic framework had helped – before the crisis – to put Europe on a solid ground. Those solid foundations have enabled it to withstand the onslaught.

In the end, the strength to overcome the present hardships will come from the inside. Our openness to trade, our balanced and dynamic business structures, our talented and well-trained workforces are part of our future. We know that technological progress will continue unabated in Europe. Companies and people will continue to prove their entrepreneurial spirit in large and small organisations. Reflection and endurance will be rewarded by a sense of personal fulfilment and by collective progress. Private thrift and a sense of prudent housekeeping are Europe’s primary safeguards against the risk of developing into a bubble economy.

All this will be the engine that will steer the economy towards tomorrow’s recovery.

Thank you for your attention.

[1] Francesco Sansovino, Venetia città nobilissima et singolare, Venice, 1581.
[2] Cited in F. Braudel, “ Civilization and Capitalism, 15th-18th Century: The Wheels of Commerce” University of California Press, 1992.

source

Lehman Brothers and the crisis: A year on | The Economist

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 13:36:00 +0000

Lehman Brothers and the crisis: A year on | The Economist

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A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers. By Lawrence G. McDonald and Patrick Robinson. Crown Business; 368 pages; $27. Ebury Press; Â£7.99. Buy from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk

This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. By Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. Princeton University Press; 496 pages; $35 and Â£19.95. Buy from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk

ON JUNE 7th 2005 the then new global head of fixed-income trading at Lehman Brothers launched a devastating attack on Americaâ€™s housing market. It was â€œpumped up like an athlete on steroidsâ€, he said in an office meeting. Those muscles gave a â€œfalse impression of strength and in the end would not be sustainedâ€. Almost instantly Americaâ€™s housing bubble started to deflate.

On February 9th 2007 Lehmanâ€™s global head of distressed trading publicly challenged the boss of its mortgage-securitisation business, predicting that the â€œdomino effectâ€ of the collapsing housing market would damage the banking sector. He gave warning that Lehman, with its trillions of dollars of debt and high exposure to mortgage-backed securities, was at risk. You donâ€™t know what you are talking about, replied the head of mortgage securitisation.
Both Lehman traders were right in their gloomy prophesies. Had they been heeded by the investment bankâ€™s bosses, perhaps Lehman could have been saved. But both quit, derided for their bearishness. They later returned in a last-ditch effort to rescue the ill-fated investment bank, after a coup weakened its chairman and chief executive, Richard Fuld, and ousted his longtime crony, Joe Gregory, the chief operating officer. But by then it was too late: Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on September 15th last year, becoming the best known casualty of the financial crisis.

Many blame the sycophantic â€œcourt of King Richardâ€ for Lehmanâ€™s undoing. To feed his desire for ever bigger bonuses, Mr Fuld encouraged the use of borrowed money to take big bets on rising property prices. He did not help matters by riling Hank Paulson, the former boss of Goldman Sachs turned treasury secretary, at a private dinner in early 2008. Though Mr Paulson encouraged Lehmanâ€™s boss to sell the firm, Mr Fuld came away with a different message. â€œ[W]e have huge brand with [T]reasury,â€ he swiftly wrote in a now famous memo. This smug disregard of what was more an order than advice perhaps strengthened Mr Paulsonâ€™s resolve to let Lehman go bustâ€”a decision that was to prove catastrophic within days as the entire financial system panicked.

That, at least, is how Lawrence McDonald tells it. The former Lehman traderâ€™s inside account of the investment bankâ€™s collapse, published earlier this summer (and newly in paperback in Britain), has been branded by Mr Fuld as â€œabsolutely slanderousâ€, not least for its description of him bunkered in his huge office on the 31st floor of Lehmanâ€™s headquarters (â€œWell, I left my office, I left my office plenty,â€ he has countered). It would come as no surprise to learn that Mr McDonald (who wrote his account with Patrick Robinson) has taken some liberties in his highly readable yarn, which hits its stride a few chapters in. He provides no sources for scenes that take place after he was fired in early 2008, many of which show Mr Fuld in a particularly bad light. Yet â€œA Colossal Failure of Common Senseâ€ largely rings true. It expresses the anger that many former Lehman employees still feel toward Mr Fuld. And it convincingly characterises the investment bank as a house divided against itself, between the bears who had foreseen bubbles and the bulls who wrongly believed that this time would be different.

The silly notion that history and precedent have no bearing on contemporary finance is at the root of what Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff call â€œeight centuries of financial follyâ€. The two economistsâ€™ book is no page-turner (though it is much more readable than the academic research it draws from). But it is essential reading nonetheless, and is certain to have a longer shelf-life than the Lehman book, both for its originality and for the sobering patterns of financial behaviour it reveals.

The authors identify several red flags that indicate a looming financial crisis (such as house prices rising in tandem with increased debt-to-income ratios), many of which were visible in the run up to Lehmanâ€™s demise and the panic that followed. Even more worrying is their evidence of just how damaging banking crises tend to be, and how long it takes to recover from them. In the aftermath of the average crisis, asset prices fall sharply. Real housing prices fall on average by 36% over six years, equity prices by 56% over three-and-a-half years. Unemployment tends to rise by seven percentage points during the down phase of the cycle, which on average lasts four years. Government debt increases by 86%; GDP falls by over 9% on average, and typically takes ten years to return to what it was before the crisis. (When only post-war crises are considered, this changes to just over four years, though the current crisis is worse than any of them.)

Mrs Reinhart and Mr Rogoff do not expect a quick recovery this time. Nor do they expect their proposed reformsâ€”which include creating a new global financial regulator and beefing up the IMF, where Mr Rogoff was once chief economistâ€”to prevent future crises, though they could make them less frequent. As they say, â€œThe persistent and recurrent nature of the â€˜this-time-is-differentâ€™ syndrome is itself suggestive that we are not dealing with a challenge that can be overcome in a straightforward way.â€

The problem lies in the human tendency to be optimistic and forget the lessons of the past. There will be other banking crises, so the world must learn what it can from this one. Lehman Brothers is dead; long live Lehman Brothers.

American opinion on industries: Business friendly | The Economist

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 13:57:00 +0000

COMPANIES are more likely to be popular if their products or services don't involve drilling in pristine wilderness. In a recent Gallup poll, Americans say they are keenest on the computer industry, with the restaurant business and hard-working farmers not far behind. Oil and gas producers come off worst, with the troubled car industry and the federal government only slightly more popular. Banking has plummeted in the public's estimation. Only two years ago, it enjoyed an overall positive rating from 30% of people.

American opinion on industries: Business friendly | The Economist

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GDP in the OECD area stabilised in the second quarter of 2009

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 12:36:00 +0000

The new release about the GDP (Gross domestic product) is out now.

If you want read the release go here

Is crisis finished? At the moment no, but we are in a good way to go out

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 09:46:00 +0000

Economy and finance are in a good situation? We still don't know, but the future may be great, maybe better than before, because (we hope) economy and finance will be under a strange control by autority.

A lot of workers lost their jobs, a lot are losing, but in next months only few of them will lose, and some will take a new one.

But the way is good...we must trust in the new economics world..people and industries have to believe in that!

2010 will be one of the most important year for economy: we hae to wait for it and we will know what kind of economy and finance we will live in next years

GDP (or PIL in italy) is going down down down....

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Fri, 15 May 2009 14:21:00 +0000

in the three-month period the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in the major part of world countries is going down...here some data (first is for this three-month period from the last quarter of 2008, second is for the tendential data of this year)
Ue-27 -2,5% -4,4%
Eurozone-16 -2,5% -4,6%
Italy -2,4% -5,9%
Germany -3,8% -6,7%
France -1,2% -3%
Great Britain -1,9% -4,1%
Spain -1,8% -2,9%
USA -1,6% -2,6%
Holland -2,8% -4,5%
Hong Kong -4,3% -5,5-6,5%
Kazakistan -2,2% (annual)

Source

We can see that the crisis is not finished...but the opposite...for all the 2009 we will feel it....for 2010...well....it's another question..but economists say that there will be a rise of the GDP..not a big one but...crisit will be, maybe, only a far memory..

Freedom House on Ustream: Watch the 2009/05/01 conference

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Fri, 01 May 2009 07:10:00 +0000

Barack Obama: his first 100 days compares with other presidents

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 18:56:00 +0000

THE 100th day of his presidency falls on Wednesday April 29th and Barack Obama remains popular. Despite the dire economic situation, his overall approval rating is a healthy 65%, only three percentage points lower than when he first took office, according to Gallup. Over the past 50 years, the approval ratings of presidents at the 100-day mark have varied widely. Democrats seem to do badly: Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter suffered a similar dip in their fortunes. But every Republican had gone up in the public's estimation after 100 days.

From The Economist

Tomorrow is going to be the anniversary of the first 100 days into the Obama's presidency: maybe the first 100 days presidency more harder of all time....Obama is, according to me, fighing in a good way against the econoomical crisis, but the way is too long..we are just at the beginning...I hope that Mr. Obama will "play a great game"..and I trust in this..

Swine flu: what are the consequences for Economy?

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 10:45:00 +0000

I know, this isn't the most imporant topic in this period but, in this blog I talk about economy so...it's a part of the problem also this.
Every day the Swine flu is always more bad and worse, and we can see this situation also in world markets:

Airplanes company are in losing (Air France-Klm -7,6%, Lufthansa -11,9%, Iberia -8% British Airways -7,3%.
In Italy, Autogrill yesterday lose the 6,87%
The pharmaceutical industries are in rise (Roche +3,72%, Glaxosmithkline +3,63% and Sanofi-Aventis (+1,65%)

If the Swine flu will worsen, these markets will lose much (for Airplanes and Autogrill) and rise much (for pharmaceutical).

I think that also alimentary industries are going to lose much....
Roche is in rise because the "Tamiflu" could be the solution against the Swine flu...

By the way, of course not for economy situation, I hope that the Swine flu will be defeated really soon..

Also Asia feels the pain and the crisis

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 19:47:00 +0000

This image is the graphic of the Asian Axports on 2006(before the crisis) and 2008 (during the beginning of the crisis)..as you can notice, 2008 was a terrible year...more or less the drop was about the 50% or worst.
The World Trade Organisation predicted that global trade volumes would drop by 9% this year, the biggest decline since the second world war. Exports from developed countries are forecast to fall by 10%, and those from developing countries, which are more trade-dependent, by up to 3%....and Also Asian economy will feel this drop...

Source
Source

Want to earn extra cash? You can do one of this "jobs"

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 17:30:00 +0000

On the site of "The Indipendent", today there is an article that shot me, in positive: in a Recession, how people can earn extra cash? Simple, with a sort of "alternative" jobs like these:

News of redundancies making you nervous? Fancy building up a cash buffer in case of financial disaster, or need to boost your savings? Forget bar jobs and stacking shelves, there are more fun and imaginative ways to generate a second income.

Surveys

Companies that provide products and services need to know that they're appealing to current and future customers, so pay agencies to collect plenty of data from all sorts of people. As an incentive, those agencies will offer you cash, vouchers or the opportunity to win prizes in return for your thoughts. You have to be over 18 and a UK resident to take part. Sign up at www.sarosresearch.com, for example, and you could earn from £30 to £100 for two hours' work.

Tour guide

If you know enough about your local area and it attracts enough tourists, you could sell your knowledge as a tour guide. You'll need plenty of time, some comfy shoes and be confidence with public speaking. It helps if you know a few words of a range of foreign languages to ingratiate yourself with your target audience. A basic walking tour can bring in as much as £5 per person.

Competitions

There are scores of online competitions that don't require a stamp or a phone call to enter. You can win anything from CDs to large sums of cash and holidays. Plenty of websites have lists of free-to-enter competitions, including www.born toloaf.co.uk, which also offers tips on how to make the most of your entry. Watch out for competitions that demand a payment to enter or register on the site.

Virtual office

Old-fashioned envelope-stuffing ads tend to be a scam, taking your money to set up in the first place then disappearing. But becoming a virtual secretary, giving support to small businesses that can't afford their own full-time staff, can earn you between £10 and £20 an hour. You'll need good word-processing and computer skills, a phone and an internet connection for your home computer. See www.ebs-digital.co.uk.

Rent your kids

If you, your children or even your pets are particularly pleasing to the eye, or even if you're not, modelling could bring in £200 for a five-hour session, minus an agency commissioning fee. Avoid agencies that charge an up-front fee as the reputable ones will take a 20 to 25 per cent cut of earnings. One of the largest agencies in Europe is www.modelsdirect.com.

Auction sites

Trawl car-boot sales for a bargain, polish it and sell it for a huge mark-up on online auction sites such as eBay. Alternatively, listings online which are wrongly labelled can be snapped up for a song and resold. As well as eBay, try www.esources.co.uk.

Tutoring

From music to maths lessons, there's no end of things people want to learn. You'll have to be good though, and have heavyweight credentials, especially with the academic subjects. The more qualified you are the more you'll earn, but expect upwards of £20 an hour. Self-employed and individual workers can't apply for a Criminal Records Bureau check, but if you work via an agency this may be necessary. For more information, visit www.crb.gov.uk.

Rent space

Clear the junk out of your spare bedroom and rent it out, or, if you live in the centre of a city, even your parking space could be worth a few pounds a month. The rent should be based on local market rates, and the Government's "Rent a Room" scheme means that you can earn up to £4,250 a year tax-free (£2,125 if letting jointly). Go to the "Rent a Room Scheme" page at www.direct.gov.uk.

Babysitting/childminding

For anyone taking on a job with children, you'll need to know what to do if any dramas unfold and be able to take control of the situation. Having contact details to hand for parents, close relatives and local emergency services should be a must. You can earn upwards of £5 an hour.

Street performing
If you're not shy of an audience and have a decent visual talent, even if it's just standing still, this could be an option. You'll need to be able to cope with banter from the audience, a bit of rain and a variable income. Get in touch with your local council to find out about any restrictions or rules.

House and petsitting

Housesitters are paid to live in someone else's house while the owners are away. Many people will pay around £20 a day for you just to be there and may even stock the fridge for you. In return, you'll need to look after the house and its contents, including arranging any emergency work, care for any pets and water the plants. Advertise locally or through an agency such as www. homesitters.com, or www. g-angels.co.uk.

Film or TV extra

Fancy brushing shoulders with the stars? Then sign up as an extra. The BBC pays around £60 a day, and you'll get free meals. However, you'll need to be prepared to travel at short notice and stand around in the rain and cold for long periods of time. Agencies provide producers with databases of extras and may charge you a membership fee. Visit www.universalextra.co.uk or www.extra.co.uk.

Mystery shopping

This is another dream job for many people, a huge number of large retail companies use mystery shoppers to check their service levels. That means you can get paid to eat, drink, shop, and even watch movies. Assignments pay between £5 and £15 each, plus being reimbursed for purchases. Avoid agencies which charge a sign-up fee. Try www.retaileyes.co.uk .

Drugs testing

Not for the squeamish, taking part in drugs trials can earn you money for taking a tablet or injection then sitting around drinking tea. You may also get a few free nights' accommodation. Volunteers are paid anything from £50 to a few thousand pounds, depending on the level of risk or pain involved and the duration of the test. Enquire with your local hospital first before searching for clinical and medical trials online from sites such as www.testwiththebest.com.

Cashback

If you're careful, not to mention disciplined, there could be money to be made from banks and retails themselves. Cashback from credit cards and bank accounts, as well as discount shopping sites, is often offered as an almost free way to entice new customers because the vast majority of us will spend it elsewhere rather than use it to pay off our debts. The amount you get back can be anything from a few per cent of the value of smaller items to several hundred pounds for taking out a mortgage, but it's more of a discount on your living costs than a second income. Alliance & Leicester is offering £100 if you sign up to their current account before Thursday.

Domestic breeding

The rat-like creatures celebrities cart about in Louis Vuitton bags are worth a fortune themselves. Pure-breed dogs, cats and even rabbits can sell for hundreds of pounds each, so breeding them seems like a real money-spinner. But there is significant cost, time and effort involved before you earn anything. You'll have to buy a pure-breed female then stud it. There are also ongoing veterinary bills and proper care, exercise and accommodation to consider. Domestic breeding schemes take up to 20 years to become profitable, so it's not an option for short-term cash.

Nude modelling

Comfortable with your body? Artists often need life models and it's not as smutty as it sounds. Nude modelling involves taking your clothes off and staying still for up to 45 minutes per pose. Experienced life models earn around £10 an hour, so enquire with local colleges or universities or consider membership of the Register of Artists' models at www.modelreg.co.uk .

Phone operative

This is where it all gets morally challenging. If you've got a phone line and a good imagination, you can fit in adult calls around your everyday commitments. It's a competitive market, but you could earn in excess of £10 an hour. Go to www.adultwork.com and www.fone-me.com/action/operator for ways to list your services.

Sperm/egg donor

Did I mention morals? Those happy to donate their baby-making material could be "reimbursed" for expenses and lost earnings for up to around £250. It's illegal to be paid for sperm or egg donation in the UK, but fertility clinics in the US offer up to $8,000 (£5,500) for egg donation. That can involve surgery under general anaesthetic, so it's one for the strong, and open- minded (www.ngdt.co.uk ).

Surrogate mother

Upping the ante, if you can cope with the emotional and physical roller-coaster, becoming a surrogate mother could offer hope to childless couples and earn you some cash at the same time. Again, it's illegal to be paid for this service in the UK, but in the US and South Africa for example, surrogacy can earn you as much as $20,000 (£13,700) per baby. Take a look at www.surrogateweb.com .

Beppe Grillo on Firenze, on streaming 8/03/09

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 12:19:00 +0000

this is the streaming of the interview for the project "Liste Civiche a 5 Stelle" by Beppe Grillo
You can find it also on the Beppe Grillo's blog and on the LostSpace:The Odyssey's blog
Enjoy the show

A mirror of the crisis: 8000 people for 150 jobs

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 16:04:00 +0000

in GB, there are 8 km of people on the streets near the zoo...why? Because the zoo of Twycross wants to take 150 workers.
I think that this situation is a mirror of the crisis in GB, but also in all the "rich countries"....

Banks of the government and of robbery

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 20:18:00 +0000

Banks of the government and of robbery

The Great Flight

The banks and the regulatory authorities are the main ones responsible for the financial catastrophe. In the last few years, Where have the Bank of Italy, Consob, ABI, the Ministers of the Treasury been? People like Tremorti and Padoa Schioppa? Like Fazio and Draghi? Like Geronzi, Passera, and Profumo? The mayors who have invested the taxes of the citizens in derivatives? The financial analysts? The economic journalists? People like Cardia and Capuano? The rubbish shares, the futures without a future, the subprime sub-primes, the CDOs, the holes in the balance sheets, the banking liabilities without guarantees. Either these gentlemen knew everything and thus are criminals and should be prosecuted, or they are incompetents and should be sacked as soon as possible.
Renewal has to start with the pinnacle of finance. To get rid of the politicians and leave the bankers in place is of no use. The next time round, the ones who have control of the financial system will elect other figureheads, who are willing servants or are business partners.
To save the country that has been destroyed by the banks they are lending money to the banks without getting rid of those responsible. It’s an upside down world. They are using public money, the fruit of the taxes of the families to reward those who ravished the savings of the citizens. Without even asking for renewal, with Passera and Geronzi still in post with salaries of millions of Euros. Instead of taking a step back, they have taken two steps forward. The ones who are responsible are rewarded. Often the citizens have lost everything. If you are starving and you steal ham from a supermarket, they arrest you. If you throw millions of families into poverty you become President of Mediobanca
A collective clearing away is taking place
The banks control the newspapers, they are present in the Boards of Directors of the publishing groups. The financial tsunami is described as a supernatural event, something inevitable, something cosmic. The top brass in the banks are the victims of the situation not the ones responsible for it. In recent years, how much have the bankers gained in stock options thanks to the toxic shares? After the crisis, by how much have their salaries gone down? I think that it’s necessary to have a public discussion with data, names, position, illegal gains of those who have been at the top of the financial institutions and their journalist accomplices. Meanwhile, not a single Euro from the State to the banks.

From: Beppegrillo.it

Would you know how much energy your house are using? Now you can with Google Power Meter

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 18:37:00 +0000

The Google PowerMeter software will analyse the consumption information captured by "smart meters", and translate it into easy-to-understand information to help people see where they could cut back.
Users will be able to monitor the PowerMeter through their computers and other web-enabled devices using a special widget embedded on their personalised iGoogle homepage.
Ed Lu, a member of Google's engineering team, said that the company has been campaigning to force electricity suppliers to provide consumers with more detailed information about their home electricity use.
He wrote on Google's blog: "In a world where everyone had a detailed understanding of their home energy use, we could find all sorts of ways to save energy and lower electricity bills.
"It may not sound like much, but if half of America's households cut their energy demand by 10 per cent, it would be the equivalent of taking eight million cars off the road."
The Google PowerMeter is currently in development, and is being tested among select members of Google's own staff before eventually being introduced to the wider public.
It needs access to an advanced energy meter, known as a "smart meter", which is capable of giving detailed information about power consumption.
There are currently around 40 million smart meters in use around the world, although energy companies plan to install some 100 million more in the next few years, according to Google.
Mr Lu said that Google's mission was to organise the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful.
He said the company was working on new ways to provide consumers and utilities with real-time energy information, and bring America's "1950s-era electricity grid into the digital age".
He wrote: "We believe that detailed data on your personal energy use belongsd to you, and should be available in an open standard, non-proprietary format.
"You should control who gets to see your data, and you should be free to choose from a wide range of services to help you understand it and benefit from it."

from "The Telegraph"

What can I say...as the post said, we have to wait some months, but I'm going to wait because...if this system will be good, all the energy used will be under our control...we will know where and when we can save energy..and money (in this period is useful)
Stay tuned, more to come!

England, Sweden and Denmark can enter into the Euro zone?

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 18:18:00 +0000

England, Sweden and Denmark: three countries without Euro, but into the European Union, can become as the other members, and use the Euro.
The man who said this is Joaquin Almunia, during the "Foro Abc"
These countries decided to keep the Euro maybe for the stability and the power of this money in the world, for the economy crisis (have a powerful currency gives better security).
For more information, follow the blog
Stay tuned, more to come

Luca De Meo leaves Fiat group

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 19:46:00 +0000

Today Fiat announced that the Chief Marketing Officer of Fiat group, Luca De Meo, leaves his job to search other professional opportunities.
This is a bad hit for Fiat shares, in fact they lost about -3.45% (the beginning was positive) in a bad day for cars market and economy in general.
Who will take his job? Who will be the new Chief Marketing Officer of Fiat group?
Stay tuned, more to come

Antitrust, economy, finance, struggles (conflicts) of interests in italian shares company

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 16:55:00 +0000

Can I say one thing? They are finally noticed! This terrible economic and financial crisis is opening up some eyes to few people who are beginning to ask why certain things happen only in Italy.
Beppe Grillo has been denouncing this situation, and repeated in his last post (here in English) drawing, also in the form of mini-game, the map of power, which are shown in all the "conflict of interest" caused by people who are inside most boards of directors, in Italian.
Now, I do not know what this will bring the antitrust action and I hope that situations such as that with Tronchetti Provera 0.11% controlled Telecom.
Can be this the beginning of a revolution?
Stay tuned, more to come

Here the post by Corriere.it
Here my post on Lostspace

How will be 2009 for economy and finance according to me

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Sat, 10 Jan 2009 16:55:00 +0000

Preface: I am not an economist, I'm studying economy at university, so I haven't experience, but, reading here and there on internet and watching some tv programs, I try to explain my idea about this new year and about what will be happen for Wall Street, finance and economy in general.

2008 was maybe the most terrible year since 1945 for economy and finance: crisis shocks everybody, from the medium citizens to the big broker or big companies. A part of economy history is finished, and since now, the 2009, a new era for all companies, all economy and markets is beginning to start.
So, How will be 2009 for economy and finance?
I think it will be a bad year, not bad like 2008 but many companies will disappear, like cars companies, and many many workers will lose their jobs and many people will lose moneys by bad investments.
Governments bonds will enter in crisis, no one will buy Bot, Btp and CCT and probably some states will risk a failure as Iceland.
The Oil price will beginning to rise after a first part of a drop down, maybe under the 40$, and will touch the 80$ or more.
Green Energy will increase their market and business, more in USA and in China, not much in Italy, Poland and Russia.
Computers will increase their selling, but despite this, some companies will fires workers and close some shops.
Purchasing power of people will be lower, with all the consequences for economy.

These are my idea for the 2009...soon some advices about where can I invest my money.
Stay tuned, more to come

Detroit auto saloon: a show or a disaster? The beginnig of a new cars era?

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Sat, 10 Jan 2009 14:07:00 +0000

The annual Detroit auto saloon (or show) is finally here: after a terrible year for cars market, this auto show will be a show or a disaster?
I think the second one, because the most important companies, like Nissan alla Rolls Royce, Ferrari, Mitsubishi.
A lot of society are in real crisis, like:

Opel (that is in searching for money to not go failure)
General Motors
Chrysler
Bmw
Renault
Nissan

By the way, this year, for the first time, the protagonists will be not the leader and the "nobles"of the cars market and also cars story, but the new "generation", like the Chinese companies: Byd and Brilliance.
This is the sign of the conclusion for a generation and the opening for a new generation for cars: I talked about the new generation also here: this is the beginning of a new cars era? Are the USA and European cars company near to failure, and leave the market for the new Asian companies or few big companies? I don't know, but I'm sure that something will change and we will see since the Detroit auto saloon 2009.
Stay tuned, more to come

Can exist Apple without Steve Jobs

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 22:19:00 +0000

Apple is the company that revolutionized th e world of computers and "home technology" (as I call): Ipod, Iphone, new kind of notebook, a operative system and programs useful and simple to common people and many others.
All these news were announced by Steve Jobs during the Macworld every year with the famous "Keynote"...every year different announces...every announces a revolution.
This year is different: the Macworld was a "fiasco":the only important news is the notebook with 17'' screen and long battery, too different from the Iphone and Ipod, also if we consider that this is the last Macworld with Apple so...and, this Macworld was the first without Jobs (more information here)..no Jobs, no revolutionary announces...a coincidence? I don't' think so.
After this...can exist Apple without Steve Jobs?
I say no: When Steve Jobs returned to Apple in 1997, Apple shares has increased more or less of 2000%...he transformed a company near to the failure to maybe the most important one with Microsoft.
When he announced his no participation to the Macworld, Apple shares lose the 2%, and after his letter they increased the 2,5%.
Steve Jobs is the company, Steve Jobs is Apple.
Stay tuned, more to come

Arctic sea ice not in crisis: the level is the same of 30 years ago

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 22:05:00 +0000

This isn't a joke: Arctic sea ice not in crisis: the level is the same of 30 years ago, in the 1979.
The source is the Arctic Research Center, University of Illinois, that monitoring the level of Arctic sea ice: in the first period of 2008, sea ice level was too dramatic, and predictions were rife that the North Pole could melt entirely in 2008. Instead, the ice level is rising in a faster way than scientists haven't expected: this increase is maybe a record.
But, why this radical freezing?
According to Bill Chapman, a researcher with the UIUC's Arctic Center, this is due in part to colder temperatures in the region, and also wind patterns have also been weaker this year. Strong winds can slow ice formation as well as forcing ice into warmer waters where it will melt.
In conclusion, is the crisis finished? I don't think so, sure this is a good thing, excellent I can say, but...this can be an exception, so..I hope that this is only a started point: Nature helped us, now it's our time.
Stay tuned, more to come

Obama's fiscal cuts: 310 billions

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 18:23:00 +0000

Mr. Obama economic plan of 800 billions contains a part, in which it says that 310 billions of dollars will be taken from some fiscal cuts.
This is maybe one of the most important and bigger cut of American history: bigger, for example, than George Bush cuts, that, in 2 years, touched 174 billions.
From 150 to 200 billions to family, and more than 100 billions to companies that will take new workers.
In president Obama plan, American people will have a taxes cut for 500 dollars to each single person and 1000 dollars to each family. Who can use these cuts, isn't sure...maybe people with a salary of 200.000 dollars at year.
All this cuts are also put into the plan for increase the Republicans agree to all the economy's plan of Obama, in fact in the senate at democratizes are lacked by 60 votes on 100.
I hope (for American people) that this plan will agree into the Senate, and, maybe, also here in Italy someone, one day, will have a similar plain.
Stay tuned, more to come

Letter From Steve Jobs to the Apple Community

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 22:45:00 +0000

This is the letter from Steve Jobs to the Apple community:

Dear Apple Community, For the first time in a decade, I'm getting to spend the holiday season with my family, rather than intensely preparing for a Macworld keynote.

Unfortunately, my decision to have Phil deliver the Macworld keynote set off another flurry of rumors about my health, with some even publishing stories of me on my deathbed.

I've decided to share something very personal with the Apple community so that we can all relax and enjoy the show tomorrow.

As many of you know, I have been losing weight throughout 2008. The reason has been a mystery to me and my doctors. A few weeks ago, I decided that getting to the root cause of this and reversing it needed to become my #1 priority.

Fortunately, after further testing, my doctors think they have found the cause -- a hormone imbalance that has been "robbing" me of the proteins my body needs to be healthy. Sophisticated blood tests have confirmed this diagnosis.

The remedy for this nutritional problem is relatively simple and straightforward, and I've already begun treatment. But, just like I didn't lose this much weight and body mass in a week or a month, my doctors expect it will take me until late this Spring to regain it. I will continue as Apple's CEO during my recovery.

I have given more than my all to Apple for the past 11 years now. I will be the first one to step up and tell our Board of Directors if I can no longer continue to fulfill my duties as Apple's CEO. I hope the Apple community will support me in my recovery and know that I will always put what is best for Apple first.

So now I've said more than I wanted to say, and all that I am going to say, about this.

Steve

(from Letter from Steve Jobs)

After this letter, Apple shares earned the 4%, sign that for Apple world (and not only) Steve Jobs is the most important man of Apple, and a part of market world is based on this man (for example, when he said that he will never be present on the Macworld, Apple shares lost the 2%).
Stay tuned, more to come

Macworld 2009 is here without Steve Jobs..what are the possible news?

noreply@blogger.com (IceMat "Magelykun") — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 11:31:00 +0000

Macworld is started, the first without Steve Jobs, co-founder of Apple: no "keynote" this year by him. This isn't the only non technological news, in fact, few days ago, Jobs said that this will be the final Macworld with Apple. These two things damaged the Apple shares (more or less -2% on the announcement day).
But...what are the possible news this year at Macworld?
On internet I found 5 possible news, but the reals are "top secret", in pure Apple style:

The announcement data of release of Mac Os X 10.6 "Snow Leopard", the new version of the"Apple Windows", that will enter in competition with Windows 7
New version of notebooks with 17'' screen, the MacBook Pro 17: double quad-core processor , battery with long endurance and super-fine design
New applicative suites for Apple, iWork, e free time, iLife, on"cloud computing" version,
An updating for desktop Mac: Mac mini and Apple Tv, Apple's media center will be all in a "personal computer" super economic that will function also as a digital entertainment source
New Iphone model, but this is really improbably

We have to wait not much time and we can see what Apple and Jobs have in store
Stay tuned, more to come