SHARE KABIR

Trendline broken. Is it the time to Long?

2012-01-25T18:41:00.001+04:00

After the previous reading, DFM index as always went the other way. 1300 formed a support and previous resistance at 1340 was broken plus the trendline also broken with strong volumes. But i have seen something similar before and DFM index always tends to come back to the long term downtrend. Hopefully for a lot of the punters in this market 2012 will bring good tidings. But, i doubt it.

Greece Is Insolvent, Will Default on Its Debt, Fitch Says

2012-01-17T21:11:00.003+04:00

Greece is insolvent and probably won’t be able to honor a bond payment in March as the country negotiates with creditors to cut its debt burden, Fitch Ratings Managing Director Edward Parker said.

The euro area’s most indebted country is unlikely to be able to honor a March 20 bond payment of 14.5 billion euros ($18 billion), Parker said today in an interview in Stockholm. Efforts to arrange a private sector deal on how to handle Greece’s obligations would constitute a default, he said.

Prime Minister Lucas Papademos is scheduled to meet tomorrow with a group representing private bondholders after a five-day break to hold talks on forgiving at least 50 percent of the nation’s debt in the euro area’s first sovereign restructuring. Greece’s official creditors begin talks Jan. 20 on spending curbs and budget cuts that will determine whether to disburse additional aid.

“The so-called private sector involvement, for us, would count as a default, it clearly is a default in our book,” Parker said. “So it won’t be a surprise when the Greek default actually happens and we expect it one way or the other to be relatively soon.”

‘Restricted Default’

Fitch in July downgraded Greece to CCC, seven levels below investment grade. The rating company in July also said Greece will be considered a “restricted default” after a European bailout plan was unveiled that included getting bondholders to assume part of the cost.

The yield on Greek benchmark debt maturing in October 2022 fell 45 basis points to 33.6 percent, after hitting a record of 36.14 percent on Dec. 21.

The proposed debt swap aims to slice 100 billion euros from the 205 billion euros of privately owned Greek debt, with the help of 30 billion euros in cash for incentives to reach a debt- to-gross domestic product ratio of 120 percent by the end of 2020. That will relieve Greece of some 4 billion euros in annual debt servicing costs. The ratio was 162 percent in 2011, according to IMF estimates.

The targeted ratio is a “realistic outcome” for the talks, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said yesterday at the European Parliament in Strasbourg. Slower growth and a lack of progress on reforms since the Oct. 26 summit make it essential that the talks address how Greece will meet its debt obligations, Draghi said.

Debt Ratio Rising

The “government debt-to-GDP ratio is 160 percent and rising so it can’t pay its debts,” Parker said. “Plan A is for the PSI negotiations to resume and reach a voluntary agreement and if that isn’t possible, I would expect an involuntary debt exchange to be set up and for them to complete that by that date in March.”

Two days of talks in Athens between Greece and the Institute of International Finance, which represents the country’s private creditors, broke off on Jan. 13 without an agreement. Frank Vogl, an IIF spokesman, blamed the breakdown in talks on disagreement over the coupon, or interest rate, to be paid on new bonds and on discord among different authorities involved in the talks.

The country is surviving on the 8 billion-euro loan paid last month by the IMF and the EU, and proceeds from Treasury bill sales. Greece raised 1.6 billion euros in a sale of 13-week bills today at a yield of 4.64 percent, compared with 4.68 percent at the previous such sale on Dec. 20.

Standard & Poor’s last week downgraded nine euro area nations, including cutting France’s AAA rating. The downgrades by S&P suggest countries can fail to meet their debt obligations and Greece will prove to be the latest example, Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said in a Twitter post yesterday.

Europe’s debt crisis is likely to be “long and drawn out,” Parker said. “There is simply not enough political will to jump to some fiscal union, in the sense of joint and several guaranteeing of euro zone government debt.”

The Dubai Index could go down very far

2012-01-15T20:15:00.000+04:00

The Dubai Financial Market Index tried over the last week to hold the 100% Fibo at 1338 but, unable to do so. The volumes in the past fews days with a downward bias strongly suggest we are moving south with initial support at the down trend channel bottom line which could be anywhere. But a likely target would be 1166 which is 138.2% fibo level also times well with downtrend channel bottom line and the fibo timezone line (vertical). We could see a lot of support there. For the impatient kind there might be some support at 1217 (yearly pivot levels)

I will review this next week to see how well this goes. Upwards 1338 is big resistance now. But the rising volumes in down moves strongly suggest we are heading south.

Emaar puts Dubai Mall as collateral

2011-12-20T06:33:00.000+04:00

Emaar Properties has signed a new Islamic and conventional financing facility amounting to Dh3.6 billion ($1 billion).

The facility was signed with Dubai Islamic Bank, National Bank of Abu Dhabi and Standard Chartered Bank as mandated lead arrangers and bookrunners.

As part of the overall debt management for the company, the drawdown of the facility will convert the company’s debt’s maturity profile from short to longer term. This new facility will also assist in reducing the overall financing cost of Emaar due to the lower pricing achieved compared to existing borrowings.

Of the total facility, 50 per cent is repayable in a bullet repayment after five years, and the rest is amortised over eight years, said the statement.

The pricing on the facility is benchmark plus 350 basis points and is secured by The Dubai Mall. Initially, the facility will be utilised to repay the existing $300 million facility taken in 2010. Subsequent drawn downs will be made in 2012 as required, it said.

Mohamed Alabbar, chairman, Emaar Properties, said that the financing arranged is a further testament to Emaar’s ability to raise long term finance at competitive pricing even in tougher economic conditions.

“Emaar has again been amongst the first to raise an eight-year financing in the regional markets with the assistance of our core partner banks, which reflects the superior value Emaar has created for its stakeholders through its iconic developments.”

He added: “The prevailing financial climate also offers a strong opportunity for forward-looking organisations to strengthen their reserves and structure long-term growth plans.”

Emaar reported a net operating profit of Dh1.249 billion ($340 million) in the first nine months (January to September) of 2011. Revenue for the first nine months of this year reached Dh5.873 billion ($1.599 billion).

The nine-month performance of Emaar was underlined by the sustained growth of its hospitality and leisure and shopping malls and retail subsidiaries, the continued demand for homes and commercial space within its established communities such as Downtown Dubai, and the hand-over of prime real estate assets in international markets, including Turkey, Jordan and Syria.

Emaar is on track to hand over residential projects in Saudi Arabia, among other global markets, shortly.

Dubai Financial Market Close to MSCI but not classified this time

2011-12-15T10:36:00.002+04:00

DFM had positive remarks and could be the next potential MSCI upgrade candidate.Sounds very positive, now we should have some focus on our markets.Qatar obviously doesn't care about MSCI listing.

UPP posts record loss of 1.1 Billion dirhams for Q32011

2011-11-15T19:18:00.000+04:00

15/11/2011
Bloomberg

Union Properties PJSC (UPP), a Dubai-based developer, reported a record loss as costs rose and property values in the Persian Gulf emirate slumped.

The third-quarter loss widened to 1.1 billion dirhams ($289 million) from 452 million dirhams a year earlier, the company said in a statement today. Direct costs jumped to 726 million dirhams from 415 million dirhams.

Dubai’s property market went from being one of the world’s best-performing to the worst following the global credit crisis three years ago, with home prices slumping 64 percent since the mid-2008 peak, according to Deutsche Bank AG estimates. Emaar Properties PJSC (EMAAR), Dubai’s biggest developer, reported a 34 percent decline in third-quarter profit as revenue declined and property deliveries slowed.

Union Properties has been in talks with lenders to restructure debt, Chairman Khalid bin Kalban said in June. The developer is repaying borrowings this year with the 1.1 billion dirhams it raised from selling the Ritz Carlton Hotel and another 900 million dirhams from other property sales, he said.

Profit excluding changes in the value of Union Property’s real estate was 107 million dirhams, compared with a year- earlier loss of 32 million dirhams. Revenue increased 75 percent to 955 million dirhams. The company wrote down the value of its real estate by 1.17 billion dirhams in the quarter, compared with 420,000 dirhams the year-ago period.

Union Properties developed the 80-story Index Tower and the Limestone House apartment complex as well as villas and office buildings.

The shares were little changed in Dubai trading at 30.3 fils as of 1:02 p.m. They’ve declined 16 percent this year, cutting the company’s market value to 1.02 billion dirhams. The stock peaked in July 2007 at more than 5 dirhams.

DU get TRA nod for 4G

2011-11-15T19:12:00.002+04:00

UAE's integrated telecom operator du has been allowed by the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA) to refer to its HSPA+ mobile network as 4G, a company statement said.

It said since March 2011, du has been providing 4G mobile data network in the UAE, covering 99.8 per cent of the country’s population.

However, du was temporarily refrained by the TRA from running advertisements claiming its mobile network was 4G till a review was done.

The company said that over the past few weeks it had submitted detailed information to the TRA in support of its claim and the TRA had carefully studied them.

'Du is committed to lead and continue to offer the latest telecom technologies and products to the consumers in the UAE,' it added.

Q32011 Results

2011-11-15T19:03:00.001+04:00

Company	Net Profit (Q32011)	Net Profit (Q32010)	% change	EPS (FILS) 9months
ENBD	174.8 mil.	423.9 mil	-58.70%	41.9
DIB	298.0 mil.	269.6 mil.	10.80%	22.4
EMAAR	406.5 mil.	612.3 mil.	-33.60%	18
DU	244.4 mil.	163.1 mil.	49.60%	14.4
ARMX	48.0 mil.	46.7 mil.	2.80%	10.5
DIC	24.9 mil.	213.6 mil.	-88.20%	7.4
TAMWEEL	15.7 mil.	7.3 mil.	115.10%	7.1
AIRARABIA	99.3 mil.	135.2 mil.	-26.60%	4.1
DFM	(9.3) mil.	(3.0) mil.	-200.10%	1
DEYAAR	0.6 mil.	(145.5) mil.	-	0.8
TABREED	54.1 mil.	35.0 mil.	54.30%	0.23
ARTC	39.1 mil.	6.8 mil.	400.70%	0.06
GGICO	(155.8) mil.	48.8 mil.	-219%	-0.17
AJMANBANK	3.0 mil.	(3.3) mil.	-	-0.48
GULFNAV	(29.1) mil.	(15.3) mil.	-93.30%	-3.2

Emaar Third-Quarter Apartment Sales Plunge 86% Amid Weak Demand

2011-11-14T10:33:00.001+04:00

Nov. 13 -- Emaar Properties PJSC, the developer of the tallest tower in
Dubai, said revenue from apartment sales plunged 86 percent in the thrid
quarter amid weak property demand in the Persian Gulf emirate.

Income from apartment sales dropped to 183.3 million dirhams from 1.34
billion dirhams a year earlier, according to Emaar's financial statement
posted on Dubai's stock market today. Revenue from sale of villas jumped
to 126.4 million dirhams from 30.4 million dirhams. Emaar posted
third-quarter earnings on Oct. 27 and provided a breakdown of revenue
today.

Emaar, United Arab Emirates' biggest developer by market value, was hurt
by a more than 60 percent slump in property prices in its home market as
speculative demand waned and banks tightened lending since mid-2008. The
company reported a 34 percent decline in third-quarter profit as revenue
declined and property delivery slowed.

Revenue from hospitality business advanced 14 percent 224.5 million
dirhams, while rental income increased 21 percent to 526 million
dirhams, according to the statement.

The developer plans to borrow $700 million and build a commercial center
in its Eighth Gate development in Damascus, Chairman Mohamed Alabbar
told Dubai TV on Oct. 24. The shares gained 0.4 percent to 2.67 dirhams
in Dubai trading today, paring its lose this year to 25 percent.

As per a news article in bloomberg....

Dubai investor gets record $9.6 million fine

2011-11-13T15:14:00.001+04:00

"
'Sophisticated investor' Ramesh Goenka fined by UK regulator for manipulating GDRs of Reliance Industries
By Vicky KapurPublished Thursday, November 10, 2011
Rameshkumar Satyanarayan Goenka, a Dubai-based private investor, has been fined $9,621,240 (approximately £6 million) by the UK's market regulator Financial Services Authority (FSA) for artificially inflating the closing price of Reliance Industries (Reliance) securities on the London Stock Exchange with a view to profit from it, the London-based FSA said in a statement on Wednesday.

"This is the largest fine imposed by the FSA on an individual," the regulator said, adding that the fine would have been an even higher $12.4 million had Goenka not received a 30 per cent discount for settling at an early stage of the FSA's investigation.

"Goenka is an Indian businessman who has been living in Dubai for the last 12 years. He is a prominent and sophisticated investor with a substantial portfolio of investments," the FSA said in the declaration detailing the facts of the investigation.
"

Said a prominent newspaper today. Such manipulators may also exist on the regional and local markets... They should be banned from trading and protecting the small retail investors of UAE.

United Foods 34mil profit EPS 1.46

2011-11-09T10:00:00.001+04:00

03 Nov 2011 : Results for Nine Months 2011 for United Foods (DFM)
United Foods Co. announced its results for the nine months ended on
30-09-2011 as follows:
Net Profit AED 33.846 Mill
Earnings per share AED 1.35
Net Profit same period last year AED 36.432 Mill
Earnings per share same period last year AED 1.46

Tabreed profit up 6mil from last year

2011-11-09T09:59:00.001+04:00

03 Nov 2011 : Results for Nine Months 2011 for TABREED (DFM)
TABREED announced its results for the nine months ended on 30-09-2011 as
follows:
Net Profit AED 129.880 Mill
Earnings per share AED 0.07
Net Profit same period last year AED 123.199 Mill
Earnings per share same period last year AED 0.31

GulfNAV 54mil loss

2011-11-09T09:58:00.001+04:00

03 Nov 2011 : Results for Nine Months 2011 for Gulf Navigation (DFM)
Gulf Navigation Holdings announced its results for the nine months ended
on 30-09-2011 as follows:
Net Loss AED 53.672 Mill
Loss per share AED 0.0341
Net Profit same period last year AED 8.286 Mill
Earnings per share same period last year AED 0.0052

DIC net profit down 477mil from last year

2011-11-09T09:57:00.001+04:00

03 Nov 2011 : Results for Nine Months 2011 for Dubai Investments (DFM)
Dubai Investments announced its results for the nine months ended on
30-09-2011 as follows:
Net Profit AED 238.638 Mill
Earnings per share AED 0.07
Net Profit same period last year AED 715.232 Mill
Earnings per share same period last year AED 0.19

Deyaar 45mil profit

2011-11-09T09:53:00.002+04:00

03 Nov 2011 : Results for Nine Months 2011 for Deyaar Development (DFM)
Deyaar Development announced its results for the nine months ended on
30-09-2011 as follows:
Net Profit AED 45.079 Mill
Earnings per share AED 0.78 Fils
Net Loss same period last year AED 525.715 Mill
Loss per share same period last year AED 8.46 Fils

Takaful House Loss 11mil

2011-11-09T09:53:00.001+04:00

03 Nov 2011 : Results for Nine Months 2011 for Takaful House (DFM)
Takaful House announced its results for the nine months ended on
30-09-2011 as follows:
Net Loss AED 11.065 Mill
Loss per share AED 0.111
Net Loss same period last year AED 9.620 Mill
Loss per share same period last year AED 0.096

Dubai Islamic Insurance 20mil loss

2011-11-09T09:52:00.001+04:00

03 Nov 2011 : Results for Nine Months 2011 for Dubai Islamic Insurance
Co. (DFM)
Dubai Islamic Insurance Co. announced its results for the nine months
ended on 30-09-2011 as follows:
Net Loss AED 20.650 Mill
Loss per share AED 0.09
Net Profit same period last year AED 16.085 Mill
Earnings per share same period last year AED 0.07

Road to ruin or recovery?

2011-11-03T14:28:00.000+04:00

Fallout from the euro-zone debt crisis will ripple through the UAE
economy, says the Middle East director for banks at Fitch Ratings.

Europe's struggles as it attempts to through of financial crisis.

His warning comes as world leaders from the Group of 20 gather today in
Cannes, France, for perhaps the most important summit in the
organisation's history.

Despite the possibility of Greece rejecting the latest EU benefit
package, the summit of the Group of 20 leading and emerging economies
(G20) will look to agree on a deal on the country's debts and ensure the
financial consequences of a Greek no vote are not felt throughout Europe
and the rest of world.

And Mahin Dissanayake, at Fitch Ratings, said the UAE and its banks
could not avoid being affected by decisions made at the G20 on the euro
zone.

"We do not agree with some of the statements being made that the UAE
will be immune from issues in the euro zone and globally," said Mr
Dissanayake. "We believe a further, and possibly protracted, downturn in
the global economy could affect the UAE economy and therefore the
banking sector."

A funding squeeze at banks is also likely to affect lending to
businesses, he said.

"There's a clear link between tourism, services, manufacturing and
trading segments, in particular Dubai, with what's happening globally.
As a result, we believe the banks will be affected in terms of growth,
asset quality and earnings. It's as simple as that," said Mr
Dissanayake.

Yesterday ahead of the summit, George Papandreou, the Greek prime
minister, held emergency talks with Nicolas Sarkozy, the French
president, and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor.

Mr Papandreou stunned world markets earlier this week by calling for a
referendum on a deal tocut the country's debts.

A euro-zone agreement had been made to write off half of Greece's bank
debts, increase the size of a recently established European bailout fund
and recapitalise banks. But the Greek people are expected to vote
against the deal in a referendum that could be held within weeks.

Stock markets fell sharply around the world after the referendum call
but stabilised somewhat yesterday ahead of the G20 meeting, which it is
hoped will dispel some of the uncertainty created by the Greek
announcement.

However, figures released yesterday in Germany showed that unemployment
rose unexpectedly last month for the first time in more than two years
and manufacturing contracted in Europe's largest economy. In addition,
the final Markit Euro-zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for
last month fell to 47. 1, revised down from a preliminary reading of
47.3 and down from 48.5 in September. The survey suggests the crisis is
putting a chokehold on euro-zone business and adds pressure on the
European Central Bank to cut interest rates.

"It makes grim reading," said Alan Clarke, an economist at Scotia
Capital. "If there was any doubt t the euro zone was headed for
recession, these data should confirm it."

Air Arabia profit down 26 percent in Q3 2011

2011-11-03T09:08:00.001+04:00

02 Nov, 2011 - Air Arabia announces third quarter 2011 net profit of AED
100 million - Air Arabia net profit for the three months ending
September 30, 2011, which was in line with analyst forecasts, stood at
AED 100 million, a decline of 26 per cent compared to AED 136 million in
the corresponding period in 2010. In the third quarter of this year, Air
Arabia posted a turnover of AED 691 million, an increase of 22 per cent
compared to AED 568 million in the same period of 2010.

Du Q3 profit increases 50 pct

2011-10-31T16:11:00.000+04:00

* EBITDA margin 34 pct vs 32 pct in Q2* Q3 net profit 244 mln dirhams vs f'cast 214 mln* Revenue 2.23 billion dirhams vs 1.74 bln year ago* Mobile ARPU static at 118 dirhams (Rewrites first paragraph, adds CEO quotes, detail)DUBAI, Oct 31 - UAE telecoms operator du's margin will rise in the fourth quarter, it said when beating forecasts with a 50 percent rise in quarterly net profit, driven by higher mobile revenue.Du, which ended Etisalat's domestic monopoly in 2007, said its third-quarter EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) margin was 34 percent, up from 32 percent in the second quarter and 30 percent a year ago."The name of the game is better efficiency in our operations," Chief Executive Osman Sultan told reporters on Monday. "We are moving towards better EBITDA margins, not only for the coming quarter, but hopefully for the next year."Du made a third-quarter net profit of 244 million dirhams ($66.5 million), compared with a forecast for 214 million."The main growth came from mobile revenues," said Sultan.Du has provisioned to pay half of its 2011 profit in royalties, or tax, to the federal government. This is the same percentage levied on Etisalat, but in 2010 du paid only 15 percent in a surprise decision by the government. Du is still waiting for confirmation of the 2011 royalty, Sultan said.Third-quarter revenue was 2.23 billion dirhams, up from 1.74 billion a year earlier.Revenue growth was likely to be "between 26 and 28 percent" in 2011 as a whole, Sultan said, with du's share of total UAE telecoms revenue "close to 28 percent".Mobile revenue was up by nearly third to account for more than 75 percent of quarterly revenue. Subscribers rose 162,000 quarter-on-quarter to 4.94 million at the end of September, giving du a 45 percent market share.Contract customers, who typically spend more than their prepaid counterparts, continued to grow in numbers, du said, and now account for 7 percent of mobile subscribers, although the company's average revenue per user (ARPU) remained static at 118 dirhams."If we move up for the coming year with a couple of (percentage) points, I would consider this to be a decent result," said Sultan.Data income rose 46 percent year-on-year to 167 million dirhams, providing just under 10 percent of mobile revenue.Du said it had 639,700 fixed line customers in the third quarter, up 24 percent from a year earlier. It added 16,100 lines in the three months to Sept. 30, implying slowing growth.Sultan said this would rise when a long-awaited network infrastructure deal between the two UAE operators is finalised -- du and Etisalat already offer landline phone, broadband and TV, but not in the same districts.Yet this would likely be introduced in phases, rather than a nationwide roll-out, Sultan said, implying it would miss a year-end deadline previously mentioned by the UAE regulator.Du has no plans to borrow before the end of 2011, Sultan added, declining to comment on the firm's financing plans for next year. In June, du repaid an $817 million loan facility. ($1 = 3.673 UAE Dirhams)

Dubai Financial Market Q3 loss widens as volumes plunge

2011-10-30T06:53:00.004+04:00

DUBAI, Oct 27 - Dubai Financial Market (DFM), the Arab world's only listed bourse, said its third-quarter net loss more than tripled amid a sharp slump in turnover at the bourse.

DFM posted third-quarter net loss of 9.3 million dirhams ($2.5 million), compared with a loss of 3 million dirhams in the year-ago period, it said in a statement on the Dubai bourse Thursday.

Analyts polled on average expected third-quarter net loss of 1.5 million dirhams.

"The constant drop in trading values overshadowed the company's revenue, as trading value decreased by 52.2 percent during the first three quarters of this year," the statement said.

Traded value for the quarter fell to 5.2 billion dirhams, a 42.3 percent decline compared with 9.03 billion in the same period last year.

Total revenue for the first nine months of the year fell 29 percent to 145.1 million dirhams, DFM said.

Turnover on Dubai's bourse is set to slump to a seven-year low in 2011, with this year's annual traded value likely to be less than a fifth of that of 2008. Its benchmark index is down about 10 percent year-to-date and some 80 percent below a 2008 peak.

The exchange has not seen a single initial public offering of shares in more than three years.

GCC Real Estate analysis

2011-10-24T20:42:00.001+04:00

Revising forecasts; Balance sheet

improvement, muted growth



Balance sheet repair in full swing but at the expense of growth and

profitability, particularly for Dar Al Arkan, Aldar, and Arabtec; we see
deep value in Dar Al Arkan and Aldar and keep them at OW



Project execution/awards adversely impacted by regional political

instability, highlighted most recently by Arabtec’s and Depa’s
numbers; we downgrade Depa to N and maintain Arabtec at N; DSI is
our preferred play, on strong EPS momentum – maintain OW



Emaar is trading well below its theoretical floor, but upside is capped

– maintain N; Sorouh is a better play, on EPS turnaround and book
derisking – maintain OW; Al Akaria’s rental assets are priced in –
maintain N; upgrade Mabanee to OW on recent pullback
Despite improving liquidity and rental yields in the UAE, we maintain our
neutral view on the sector as excess supply remains a concern

. We see

good value in Aldar and Sorouh, with Sorouh’s risk/reward profile looking

more attractive over the medium term as it trades in line with the sector

(2011e P/B of 0.5x and 2011e NAV of 0.3x) despite its superior growth

outlook and stronger balance sheet. We cut Sorouh’s TP 11% to AED1.6

from AED1.8 but maintain our Overweight recommendation. For Aldar, the

government bailout is expected to be fully realized by the end of 2012,

alleviating its medium

‐term debt burden, likely bringing recurring income

assets into focus. We cut Aldar’s TP 22% to AED2.1 from AED2.7 but

reiterate our Overweight rating. Emaar is trading well below its theoretical

floor valuation of AED3/share (rental assets), but the upside is likely to

remain capped due to its weakening growth profile and deteriorating

balance sheet. The potential for an impairment of Amlak at the end of the

year is likely to remain an overhang. We maintain our TP for Emaar at

AED3.2 and our Neutral rating.

In Saudi Arabia, supportive sector dynamics, particularly recent
government initiatives, are not yet being reflected in the companies’
fundamentals given regulatory inefficiencies and still tight liquidity

. We

continue to prefer Dar Al Arkan over Al Akaria, purely on valuation grounds.

For Dar Al Arkan, we estimate that the cash accumulation seen in 1H11

should continue till the end of the year, helped by collection of receivables

and a slowdown in CAPEX. At current levels (2011e P/B of 0.5x), the market

appears to be pricing in a 50% probability of default, and successful balance

sheet deleveraging should therefore drive share performance. We cut our

TP 16% to SAR11.1 from SAR13.2 but reiterate our Overweight rating. While

Al Akaria continues to provide a defensive play on the underlying demand

story in Saudi Arabia, at current levels its rental portfolio appears fully

priced in, on our estimates. We maintain our TP for Al Akaria at SAR25.9

and our Neutral rating.

Dar Al Arkan Overweight

Target price (SAR) 11.1

Aldar Overweight

Target price (AED) 2.1

DSI Overweight

Target price (AED) 1.2

Sorouh Overweight

Target price (AED) 1.6

Mabanee Overweight

Target price (KWd) 1,037

Depa Neutral

Target price (USD) 0.57

Al Akaria Neutral

Target price (SAR) 25.9

Emaar Neutral

Target price (AED) 3.2

Arabtec Neutral

Target price (AED) 1.4

8 September 2011

For the full report download
Disclaimer:
This report available on another site for public viewing and is copyright to its author and publisher, owner sharekabir doesn't claim any ownership or responsible for any data published in that report.

Technical Alert

2011-10-11T20:24:00.000+04:00

DFM Market Chart failed to rise again with pressure from ENBD.

RSI met resistance at 30 so likely to another downward move. likely to touch 1350 or so. Next week may see better moves.

ENBD's takeover of Dubai Bank could weigh down this market further as even though its not liquid it has big effect on the Index.

A few Charts to ponder over Eid.

2011-08-30T17:20:00.000+04:00

Dubai Financial Market Index

Air Arabia

Drake & Scull

Amlak Losses continue

2011-08-19T13:57:00.000+04:00

Amlak Finance, the Dubai-based Islamic mortgage company that’s being reorganized by the United Arab Emirates government, reported a wider quarterly loss in the second quarter as income from its core business fell and impairments more than doubled.

The company said in a statement its net loss swelled to AED 52.2 million ($14.2 million) from AED 597,000 ($162,500) a year earlier. Income from its core Islamic financing and investing assets business dropped 17.2 per cent to AED 130.8 million ($35.6 million), while impairments surged to AED 61.2 million ($16.2 million) from AED 29.7 million ($8.08 million) in the second quarter a year earlier.

Revenue fell 12 per cent to AED 148 million ($40.2 million) “as a result of no new business origination over the past two years continuing into 2011 and further mortgage rate cuts offered to existing customers,” the company said.

The government suspended shares of Amlak and Tamweel, another Dubai-based Islamic mortgage company, in November 2008 amid a liquidity crunch and announced intentions to merge the two Islamic lenders. The plan was scrapped after the Dubai Islamic Bank raised its stake in Tamweel to 57.33 per cent.

Amlak said a federal government committee studying an overhaul of Amlak “continues to explore the possibilities of a balance sheet restructuring.”

Emaar Properties, Dubai’s biggest developer, owns 45 per cent of Amlak.