The decline of active listings continues to plague Loudoun County's supply shortage. Since January, the number of active listings has declined nine of the last ten months with the October total falling short of the January total by 54 percent. This lack of available supply is fueling many of the other indicators affecting the Loudoun County housing market.
For example, the month's supply of inventory has fallen below the low threshold of a market in equilibrium (when there is enough supply to satisfy demand generally considered to be four or five months) over the last five consecutive months. It has been between 3.6 and 3.8 months since June. The 2009 average of 5.3 months represents a four-year low. Likewise, the days on market indicator stood at 57 days in October. It was the first time it's been this low in the last four years and the 2009 monthly average of 79 days beats the 2006 - 2008 monthly averages.
According to simple economic theory, as supply declines, demand increases. That translates to increasing prices. The median sales price in Loudoun County reached $345,000 in October, up 9 percent from this time last year. It has ranged from $340,000 to $350,000 over the last five consecutive months. A corollary to increasing prices is increasing close price to original list price ratios which have exceeded 94 percent in Loudoun since June. In fact, the 2009 monthly average reflects a four-year high of 93.4 percent.
The number of distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) that sold in October represented 44 percent of the total sales. Of those 184 units, 50 percent were foreclosures; short sales also accounted for 50 percent of the total.
Of the 476 active or pending listings marked as short sales or foreclosures, 74 percent were short sales and only 26 percent were foreclosures. Every month since July, the number of distressed units amounted to 30 percent of Loudoun's total active and pending listings.
Clearly the Loudoun housing market is enjoying a relative stability after four years of volatility as shown by steady prices, low available inventory, high close price ratios and falling days on market indicators.
Copies of the latest housing market statistics reports for Loudoun and Fairfax Counties are available here. For questions, contact Rosemary deButts, REALTOR® with 1757 Real Estate Company, 540/338-2212, rdebutts@1757realestate.com.
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Agents who do not have a SentriCard key and choose to get one after January 1st will pay $130 + tax, plus a one-time key activation fee of $75. NVAR does not pro-rate their key charges, so the price will be the same whether you get the key on January 1 or December 31.
]]>The 18th Annual Charity Auction and Dinner will be held Friday, November 6th at the River Creek Country Club from 6 pm to 11 pm. Tickets are $75/person which includes:
Register online or by calling the DAAR office (703.777.2468). Don't forget to invite your friends and family. The auction is open to the public and all proceeds benefit:
Tickets purchased after 10/30/09 will cost $75/person. NO WALK-INS WILL BE ALLOWED, since we have to provide a final headcount to River Creek a week before the event.
The Auction will be held on Friday, November 6th from 6 pm to 11 pm at the River Creek Country Club in Leesburg. The event is open to DAAR members, their guests, and the public. Last year's event raised $32,000 for local charities, including:
The winery outings are among the Affiliate Committee's most popular events, so reserve your spot today. Given its great location and the buzz about Dry Mill Vineyards, this is likely to be one of the most popular winery events we've had to-date.
]]>The ticket price includes two free cocktails, Hors d'Oeuvres, steak dinner (vegetarian entrees available if requested in advance), wine with dinner, and dessert. There will be both a silent auction and a live auction with fabulous items from our generous sponsors, including:
There are usually some great deals to be had, so it's a good time to stock up on your holiday gifts. The auction is open to the public, but seating is limited. So call your friends, get your tickets before they run out, and get ready to have a great time.
P.S. - We are still accepting donations and have a few sponsorship slots open. What a great way to give back to your community (and promote your business at the same time)!
]]>DAAR published September's existing home sale indicators in
Loudoun County this week. The monthly report reflects a healthy market with increasing stability. Loudoun continues to suffer from too little supply. Following seven consecutive months of declines, the number of active listings declined again in September 2009 reaching a longtime low of 1,204 units as of October 1st. Compared to the same month in previous years, the number of active listings in September was down 57% from 2008, -67.9% below 2007 and 71.1% below the total in 2006. In the last six months the month-over-the-year decline has ranged between 56% and 60% indicating a sustained level of market constraint.]]> September saw another month of steady demand pressures. A market in equilibrium (in which there is enough supply to satisfy demand) typically has a month's supply of inventory in the four to five month range. For the fourth consecutive month, Loudoun had a month's supply of inventory below four months. There is probably not enough supply to satisfy increasing demand at this rate. This was particularly evident in Sterling where all three Sterling zip codes posted a month's supply of inventory below three months again this month. A typical trend, the higher priced markets in Middleburg and Waterford had the highest month's supply of inventory based on characteristically low sales volume. The graph below shows how consistent this indicator has become since April.
For the third consecutive month, the average days on market indicator was in the 61 to 65 days range, again indicating market stability. It was less than 90 days over the last six consecutive months.
Following normal cyclical sales patterns, total unit sales declined for the third consecutive month - from 466 units in August to 435 units in September (-6.7%). However, total annualized existing home sales continued to gain on 2008 figures; the negative difference declined from -8.9% in August to -8.2% in September.
After reaching a low of $415,377 in February, the average close price for detached units averaged $501,154 in September, with monthly increases three out of the last six months. In fact, compared to last September, the average detached close price increased 3% (+$14,000) while the average prices for attached units increased $27,000 (+10%). Condominium prices continued to decline, -11% (-$19,000) over the year.
The median sales price remained steady at $340,000 in September, up 6.3% over this time last year. September also marks the second consecutive month since January 2006 that the median in the current month exceeded the corresponding median in the previous year.
The close price to original list price ratio is an indicator of either the willingness of sellers to negotiate price or their ability to price their homes to match current market conditions. In September, the ratio exceeded 94% for the fourth consecutive month and the 2009 monthly average was more than two percentage points higher than the 2008 average. This suggests sellers have adjusted their expectations to meet current market conditions.
]]>Our goal is to provide you with clear, concise communications in a format that allows you to easily and efficiently deal with the information they convey. Our hope is that smaller, more specific bites of information will fit better into your busy day.
]]>For the second consecutive month, the average days on market indicator was below 70 days (a phenomenon not seen since the housing boom in 2005) and was less than 90 days for the last five consecutive months. It appears that there were fewer homes on the market in August and that listings were selling at an increasingly faster pace - strong indicators that market conditions are improving.
Total sales are expected to decline on a monthly basis in the second half of the year and August followed the normal, cyclical trend. For the second consecutive month, total unit sales declined - from 490 units in July to 466 units in August. However, total annualized existing home sales continued to gain on 2008 figures; the negative difference declined from 10.7% in July to 8.9% in August. Also in August, condominium sales exceeded 20 units for the fourth consecutive month and the 2009 monthly average condominium sales figure was 5% higher than the 2008 average.
Although the median sales price declined $10,000 compared to July (for the first monthly decline this year) and albeit a small percentage increase, the August median sales price of $340,000 was 2% higher than the same figure in August 2008. For the first time this year the median sales price exceeded the corresponding figure from the previous year. Also for the first time this year, the average close prices for both detached and attached units exceeded the prices last year at this time. Detached prices measured 4% higher (+$21,168) and attached prices advanced 6% by $16,538.
The close price to original list price ratio is an indicator of either the willingness of sellers to negotiate price or their ability to price their homes to match current market conditions. In August, the ratio exceeded 90% for the sixteenth consecutive month and the 2009 monthly average was almost two percentage points higher than the 2008 average. This suggests sellers are pricing their homes more appropriately this year.
For a copy of the latest report, visit DAAR's Market Data and Trends. For questions on DAAR's housing market statistics contact Rosemary deButts, 540/338-2212, rosemarydebutts@verizon.net.
Courtesy of Rosemary deButts, DAAR Housing Market Consultant.
The FTC is also raising the fee for accessing the "Do Not Call" registry effective October 1, 2009. The cost for accessing the Registry for a specific area code will increase from $54 to $55, and the cost to obtain the whole Registery will be $15,058. The new fees are based on changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), since the FTC implemented a new law last year tying the access fee cost to the changes in the CPI.
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