A Cub-fan friend of mine recently said to me that Carlos Marmol is two entirely different pitchers. One day, he comes out of the bullpen and is unhittable, but the next day he is wild and ineffective. He assured me he could predict how well Carlos Marmol would fare in the game based on his immediate performance when he entered the game. I found this fascinating. Could you really predict whether good Marmol or bad Marmol is going to pitch that day after, say, ten pitches? If you could, that would be a tremendous advantage to have.

The thing about Carlos Marmol is that he is basically unhittable. The batting averages against him since 2007 are incredibly paltry, .169 in 2007, .135 in ‘08, .170 in 2009 and .148 this year. The only way to beat him is to hope that he is wild. Let’s take a look at every game in which Marmol has appeared since 2007 and we’ll break down his first ten pitches into the total number of balls and strikes. What we’ll try to do is see if Marmol’s performance can be predicted based how wild he is. We can hypothesize that the more balls he throws in the first 10 pitches, the less effective he will be. Our measure of effectiveness will be opposing OPS for at-bats that begin after the 10th pitch in each of Marmol’s appearances from 2007 through last night. Here is the opponent OPS based on how many balls Marmol throws in his first ten pitches.

Our hypothesis was incorrect:  Marmol’s first ten pitches aren’t indicative of things to come. The good news for Cubs fans is that regardless of the number of balls thrown in the first ten pitches, Marmol is remarkably effective and consistent.

Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week™, http://www.statoftheweek.com/.

The Fielding Bible–Volume II by John Dewan | Get Cubs tickets to any game!

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See this Cubs fan video on YouTube.

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Elton & Billy slug it out at Wrigley Field

As the sun faded and night fell, the feeling of baseball in the air gave way to that of a big league concert. The vibe was good, music was loud but clear, and for a minute I even forgot I was sitting in the front row of the upper deck behind first base. A rather frightening moment took place toward the end of Elton John’s set when he broke into ‘Crocodile Rock’ and all the baby boomers around me leaped to their feet to jump and dance along with the song. Strange thing was, I could feel – actually feel – the upper deck of Wrigley swaying back and forth! I stayed in my seat, enjoying the song, and no I wasn’t drinking at all, but I wondered if we were having an earthquake. Only the earth was quaking to the rhythm of Crocodile Rock. Very unsettling. I wanted the song to end before the 80 year old (upper deck was built in 1927) upper deck pancaked down onto the unsuspecting lower deck concertgoers! Yes, that’s a little dramatic, but it sure felt that way at the time. But I digress…

Best seats for a concert at Wrigley are probably on the field, but I was not at all disappointed with my upper deck row 1 seats. My veiw was unobstructed even for my peripheral vision, looking straight ahead at the stage in front of me on the field. If you are a big fan of DMB or opening act Jason Mraz, you might consider using a legit ticket broker to get the exact seats you want:

Ticket Network | Stub Hub | Gold Coast Tickets

I’ll also say there were clearly more limousines per-capita at the Billy-Elton concert than any Cubs game I had ever seen. Really, it’s not a bad way to make it a big night – no parking hassles!  Check out LimoStars for special concert deals.

Now if you’re not so sure about Dave Matthews or Jason Mraz, you can hear/get their music here:

Dave Matthews Band:  Amazon | iTunes

Jason Mraz: Amazon | iTunes

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With the All-Star Game being played tonight, it’s time to take a look at who the Defensive All-Stars are. While there isn’t a Home Run Derby for defense, these fielders’ contributions have had a tremendous impact on their team’s performance. Here are our current Defensive Runs Saved leaders:

Three of last year’s Fielding Bible Award winners are the leaders at their respective positions at the half way point. Ryan Zimmerman is a good bet to eclipse his total of 22 Runs Saved last year. He is already at 16.

The corner outfielders remain the same as well, as Carl Crawford and Ichiro Suzuki continue to keep anything and everything from falling in left and right field. Crawford is first in Plus/Minus among left fielders and has the second highest Outfield Arm Runs Saved total.

Marlon Byrd is, perhaps surprisingly, the leader in centerfield. Before this season, Byrd’s highest season Runs Saved total was eight back in 2006 with Washington. He has already surpassed that and then some.

At first base, our leader is Daric Barton, who is five Runs Saved ahead of second place Russell Branyan. Four-time Fielding Bible Award winner Albert Pujols is far behind the pack at a mere two Runs Saved during the season’s first half.

Two years ago, Robinson Cano cost the Yankees an estimated 13 runs with his weak glove. Last year, he improved that to +7. This year, he has saved an estimated 16 runs and is the top second baseman in baseball so far. He may be the most improved defensive player in all of baseball, a testament to the hard work he has put in at the keystone.

Yunel Escobar is our All-Star defensive shortstop. His 21 Runs Saved is the most in baseball at any position. Escobar may be frustrating Braves fans with a disappointing offensive year, but his defensive performance has largely compensated for his struggles at the plate.

The battery for our All-Star team is Ricky Romero from the Blue Jays and Miguel Olivo from the Rockies. Olivo has thrown out 44 percent (18 of 41) potential basestealers, the best rate of his career.

Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week™, http://www.statoftheweek.com/.

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Big Z will be evaluated by two doctors, one chosen by MLB, one chosen by the MLBPA (players union). After their initial evaluation, a treatment plan will be outlined and Zambrano is required to follow it. Sounds good, right?

Hendry went on to say Z will not return to the Cubs until after the All-Star break and when he does, manager Lou Piniella has stated he will pitch out of the bullpen.

Now I’m no expert, but I would guess any effective treatment plan to manage Z’s anger issues would take more than just a few weeks to execute. What Hendry didn’t say is what is the milestone that must be achieved by Carlos to return to the club? Is it merely his cooperation in such a program?  Or is there some negotiated, stated result that has to be met? We may not be privy to all the details, and perhaps we shouldn’t be, but Hendry’s press conference outline of the agreed upon ’conclusion’ seemed lacking teeth to me. One cannot expect real change in behavior without dedication to the process both in terms of effort and will to change.

Big Z will need to call on his Higher Power to succeed

So if anyone is expecting a ”new Big Z” when he returns, they are likely to be disappointed. Carlos may – if he is truly willing to change – learn new skills to manage his anger and emotions as they arise, but it does take practice and discipline. He has shown a stubbornness and lack of discipline in continually cramping up from dehydration, poor core conditioning resulting in lower back issues, and the inability to control his infamous temper. So his track record is not good here. 

My feeling is it will take a serious wake-up call for Carlos to find the inner-resolve needed to achieve true change. And that, Cub fans, will likely not take place while he is still wearing Cubs pinstripes.

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Ron Santo is a Cubs legend. His passion is renown, but his game analysis offers almost no value besides an occasional story from when he played. Still, his spirit and tenure embodies that of a die-hard Cubs fan. He played hard in his day but has no ring or Hall of Fame recognition to show for it. Suffering from Diabetes, he’s lost much of both legs and gets around on prosthetics to make it to the radio booth most Cubs games of the past 20 years. He refuses to give up or give in. He wears his heart on his sleeve and goes home disappointed each October as we all do. But he is back and brimming with unfounded, borderline-delusional blind optimism each spring. The guy and his resiliancy is nothing if not inspirational.

Baseball purists can ridicule his game analysis, but Pat Hughes quietly makes up a good part of that void with clever, well constructed lead-ins to nudge Ronnie toward an attempt at game analysis and the occasional war stories from back in the day. Honestly I think Pat deserves a better baseball foil, but as a broadcast partner the two make it special for everyone.

Now Ronnie is 70 years old and his health is catching up with him. I sure wish him well and hope the team can make it to the promised land before he does.

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I wrote a post a while back on the similarities between the Hawks and Cubs organizations. They have quite a storied past together and now of course we all hope the baseball team will follow the hockey team to a league championship.

You can bet there we Blackhawks – likely with Lord Stanley in hand – present for some ovations at Wrigley this weekend during the Crosstown Classic. I would guess Saturday, in front of the national TV audience, would be the day they throw out the first pitch, take a bow and sing Take Me Out To The Ballgame, and generally collect the accolades of an appreciative all-Chicago crowd… just the way John McDonough might have scripted it.

The Blackhwaks championship gear is available now as well – get yours here via Amazon…

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Prior to this season, in 134 seasons of Major League Baseball dating back to 1876, only 18 perfect games had been thrown. That’s one every seven or eight seasons. This year, we’ve had three in less than a month (though only two count).

Dallas Braden was on top of the pitching world with his perfect game on May 9. Not to be outdone, Roy Halladay matched his feat going 27-up, 27-down on May 29. Two days ago, on June 2nd, Armando Galarraga retired the first 26 batters followed by the umpire gaffe on the final play to deny him the official perfecto.

What are the odds of so many perfect games in such a short period of time?

With the advent of the 162-game schedule and gradual expansion from 16 to 30 teams, there is a greater chance of a perfect game happening in the modern era than there was previously; however, the odds still remain quite low.

The odds that a perfect game occurs in a season: 4-to-1

For two or three perfect games, the odds start getting quite remote:

The odds that there are two perfect games in a season: 43-to-1
The odds that there are three perfect games in a season: 580-to-1

But we had all two (three?) in a month. The odds on three perfect games in a month are astronomical at 16,033-to-1. Maybe Jim Joyce was thinking this subconsciously when he made the bogus safe call in Galarraga’s game.

The odds that there are two perfect games in a month during a season: 212-to-1
The odds that there are three perfect games in a month during a season: 16,033-to-1

You’ve seen history, folks.

Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week™, http://www.statoftheweek.com/.

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Will Big Z hear the wake-up call?

The move may prove beneficial in the long run if it serves as a wake up call to the Cubs fledgling ace pitcher. I believe it was ESPN1000’s Bruce Levine that reported Zambrano’s ERA over his last 41 starts is 4.77 with a 12-11 record - hardly the mark of a #1 starter on a team known for having a good rotation. But Big Z always seems to have some mitigating circumstance sabbotaging his rise to elite status. Whether that be anger issues, dehydration, or lack of concentration, Z has all the tools but seems afraid to put it all together. So if his sudden demotion to the bullpen serves as a wake up call that he has to carry his weight as a top of the rotation kind of guy, then this exercise may have been worthwhile all along. Somehow though, I fear Z will even find a way to sabbotage his wake up call.

My bold prediction here is Zambrano will pitch well in his return but likely will return to his old ways soon enough. I hope to be wrong here, I hope he has matured to a place where he can hear this wake up call and seize the opportunity to get back on track. He has the talent, he just needs to focus and practice better self care – both mental and physical. We shall see…

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Doug Glaville will begin his media blitz this week to promote the book. Stay tuned to DougGlanville.com for last minute announcements.  Meantime, those in Chicago can find Doug here:

• Borders Books – 830 N. Michigan Ave in Chicago on Tuesday May 11th from 7:00-8:30pm
• Harry Caray’s Tavern – 3351 N. Sheffield Ave. (across from Wrigley Field) on Wednesday May 12th from 5:00-6:30pm
• Doug will visit with Pat & Ron on the radio and Len & Bob on TV when he sings Take Me Out to the Ballgame during the 7th inning of Wednesday’s (May 12) Cubs game at Wrigley Field
• The Book Stall – 811 Elm St., Winnetka IL (847)446-8880 Saturday May 15th 2:00pm-3:30pm

Publisher’s Desctiption:

An insider’s revealing look at the hidden world of major league baseball
Doug Glanville, a former major league outfielder and Ivy League graduate, draws on his nine seasons in the big leagues to reveal the human side of the game and of the men who play it.

In The Game from Where I Stand, Glanville shows us how players prepare for games, deal with race and family issues, cope with streaks and slumps, respond to trades and injuries, and learn the joyful and painful lessons the game imparts. We see the flashpoints that cause misunderstandings and friction between players, and the imaginative ways they work to find common ground. And Glanville tells us with insight and humor what he learned from Jimmy Rollins, Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson, Barry Bonds, Curt Schilling, and other legendary and controversial stars.

In his professional career, Glanville experienced every aspect of being a player—the first-round pick, the prospect, the disappointment, the can’t-miss, the cornerstone, the veteran, the traded, the injured, the comeback kid. His eye-opening book gives fans a new level of understanding of day-to-day life in the big leagues.

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