A’s +135 vs Giants (Greek)

Royals +136 vs Cardinals (Matchbook)

Cubs +154 vs Diamondbacks (Matchbook)

Rockies +230 vs Rangers (Bet Online)

Mets +136 vs Yankees (5 Dimes)

A’s +130 vs Giants (Bovada)

Royals +123 vs Cardinals (Bookmaker)

Cubs +186 vs DiamondBacks (Bet Online)

Rockies +244 vs Rangers (Matchbook)

Twins +202 vs Reds (Matchbook)

Again, all bets are to win 1x. Notice again the importance of having multiple options. My actions is spread across 5 different books today. All these lines are the best available on the market right now. Even a small difference in price can mean the difference between a winning and losing year.

First I look at the consensus sites like Wagerline to determine which teams are being bet on the least. I like to focus on teams that get 30% or less of the bets.

Then I look to see which home favorites are getting less than 50% of the consensus picks.

These two areas will consist of 90% of my MLB plays. To put it simply, I’ll be betting on a lot of bad teams and bad pitchers.

One rule I have in MLB is to never pick a side that is favored -110 or greater. I’ll almost always be betting on short favorites and underdogs. The more dogs I pick, the less i have to get right to be profitable.

Betting on favorites means you would have to guess right over 53% of the time (and often much higher in MLB), and I do not believe that is sustainable in the long run.

After that brief introduction, here are today’s picks:

Mets + 130 vs Yankees (5dimes)
Astros +120 vs Indians (Bovada)
Royals –110 vs Cardinals (5dimes)

Michael Jordan was an elite player surrounded by an amazing supporting cast. LeBron James is an elite player who for the majority of his career played with a bunch of nobodies. It’s almost impossible to compare different eras. That’s why I refuse to do it.

I’m not trying to be controversial. I just hope LeBron finally wins his ring so we can go back to discussing where he ranks amongst the games all time greats.

As the world watches LeBron’s every move tonight, I’ll be sitting back with a cold beer in my hand hoping that this one goes under.

Here is my first posted pick on the blog:

OKC Thunder/ Miami Heat Under 194 (-105) (5Dimes)

My plays will always be posted in this format. All plays are to win 1x of bankroll, unless stated otherwise.

The first rule of Sports betting. Forget everything you know about sports. Everything. Being a winning sports bettor requires absolutely no knowledge of sports. I cannot stress this enough. Often times the average sports bettor thinks that he can outsmart the bookmaker. He will usually cite his opinion or some absurd stat to support his case. “The Browns are 3-0 at home this year against the spread,” “Ray Rice always kills the Jaguars,” or “I got a feeling Eli is gonna have a HUGE game this week.”

This is all bullshit of course. All of those statements are thrown around by Square sports bettors seeking to validate their lame selections.

If you want to be a successful sports bettor you have to learn to separate your opinion from the line. You cannot outsmart the bookmaker.

It’s only once you do this that you can move onto the next important step:

Bankroll management.

To be a winning sports bettor you have to have a bankroll that is 100x your standard bet size. That means if you plan on betting $50 per game, your bankroll should be $5000. If you decide to stray from this you will lose money in the long run.

The next commandment of being a winning sports bettor is to never chase your losses. It’s always tempting to increase your bet size after a rough day. This is what finishes off the majority of sports bettors. If you have a bad day just forget about it. There will be good days and there will be bad days. Stay level headed and your bankroll will thank you in the long run.

The next part of the contrarian guide to gambling is the difficult part. Finding value. In order to find value you need to find a line that is better than what the current market is dealing. Let’s say Pinny is listing the Bengals +2.5 this week. Perhaps your local bookie is offering +3.5. That is value. Finding value can be the tricky part though. In order to do this you must line shop and have money spread across multiple books. If you play at one sportsbook you are severely limiting your profitability. I like to be posted up in at least 5-6 sportsbooks.

In addition to finding value, it can be beneficial to “fade the public.” Fading the public simply means to bet against the consensus of most bettors. There are numerous websites where you can find consensus numbers for multiple sportsbooks. Use these resources as your friend.

Just using this information you are probably better off than 98% of sports bettors. Becoming a winning sports bettor involves a total change in philosophy. Take the first step and you won’t regret it.

I’ll touch on each of these topics more in depth soon. I just wanted to get this out before I start making selections.

That’s a goal. For those living under a rock, that was from Tuesday’s England/Sweden Euro group match. Ukraine striker Artem Milevskiy scored what appeared to be a goal in the 62nd minute, but the referees were asleep at the switch. England ended up winning the match 1-0 and won the Group.

This would normally be a travesty. I’m a big believer that technology needs to be used to correct calls in every sport. But maybe the referees ineptitude here was a good thing. Let’s look at Milevskiy’s position before the goal.

That’s offsides. The goal should not have counted anyway. So the referees got 2 calls wrong and ended up getting it right. Good job guys.

Here’s what to expect when you visit Contrarian Sports:

Contrarian Sports will call out members of the mainstream media for factual inaccuracies and idiotic statements.

Contrarian sports will provide analysis using numbers and not biased opinion.

Contrarian sports will provide sports betting analysis and tips based on a strategy of fading the public and exploiting inefficiencies in the market.

Welcome to Contrarian sports. Think Different.