Crozet Community Advisory Council, Pantops Community Advisory Council, Places 29 (29 North), Village of Rivanna (east of Pantops) – and there are vacancies on the Pantops, Places 29 and Village of Rivanna Councils.

Here’s the thing – I learned a ton by being at and live-tweeting the meeting, and I noticed that I was getting interaction and questions from other people on Twitter who were unable to attend the meeting. I’ve made no secret of my affinity for Charlottesville Tomorrow; they are invaluable and their recent partnerships with the HooK and C-Ville will prove moreso.

But … having someone in the meeting engaging the community following was super-valuable. I’ve noticed this in Crozet several times as a watcher – one following the meeting from the outside. I’m interested in what’s happening at the meeting, but can’t attend (kids, work, family, etc) and a live-stream wouldn’t be as useful as tweets.

Take a look at the storify from last night’s Crozet meeting – there were a couple things in there that likely wouldn’t have made any story published elsewhere – they’re asides, but valuable asides, and mentions that don’t warrant individual stories. They’re valuable tweet-worthy asides.

What’s the point? The point is this -

If you can, find your way to community meetings – particularly ones that aren’t covered by media – and get involved, tweet the meetings and tell others. A lot of stuff happens and gets discussed in these meetings, and most often, the wider public learns about them after decisions are made.

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The overreaching question is: How do we move to excellent urban planning?

(and how do we connect Charlottesville and Albemarle and the greater Charlottesville area?)

Thanks to Sean for the pointer.

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Matt Hodges sums up current thinking:

“I’m bullish on the lending market and the real estate market locally,” said Hodges. “We believe that there’s even going to be a greater demand this year than last.”

“There was a pendulum swing where it was way too easy and then it was way too hard to get a mortgage,” said Hodges, who has worked in Charlottesville for 14 years. “Today, consumers still believe that’s it harder to get a loan than it actually is.”

From my perspective as a buyer’s representative – if you’re qualified, you can get a loan. Getting a loan is a far, far more tedious process than it used to be, but it’s absolutely doable. There are challenges that need to be navigated, including the application process, appraisals, underwriting … but these are all surmountable challenges, particularly if you as a buyer have surrounded yourself with the right team.

Remember: lenders don’t ask for things repeatedly because they are bored – they’re asking more questions because they have to. Unlike the previous market, lenders do have some risk if they make bad loans. And we all benefit from a reasonably more stringent lending world. I’m not saying it’s perfect (and never will be). The knee-jerk responses (see: HVCC) by an ignorant, paid-for Congress are extreme, but I feel that we’re on a path to balance. Hopefully.Disclosure: Matt’s one of the Charlottesville lenders I recommend to my clients.

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Dave McNair at The Hook reports on how they’re moving forward under new ownership. I’ve always loved that development and wish it was viable on a larger scale.

Either way – as Dave reports, they should be able to make a much better run at it; the original price in 2006 was $31 million; the foreclosed sale price was $7.5 million.

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Also, this is curious:

Habitat for Humanity wants to trade land it owns at the Southwood Mobile Home Park for land in Biscuit Run State Park, some of which Habitat would donate to Albemarle County for athletic fields.

The Department of Conservation and Habitat “have a mutual understanding of each other’s needs in any potential swap,” said Dan Rosensweig, Habitat’s executive director. “I’m confident that we’ll continue to work together to find a win-win.”

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I’m having a lot of fun writing this note, have received some of the most thoughtful replies I’ve ever received, and I’m truly grateful for the growth in readers every month. If you sign up today (or tomorrow) I’ll send you last month’s note.

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An interesting proposal from the Free Enterprise Forum to remove cash proffers from Albemarle County’s toolbox for managing new growth. I’m curious to know what alternatives exist that would replace proffers. Proffers are not always effective at restricting growth or helping the County achieve the desired revenue stream to support infrastructure development.

Impact fees, adequate public facilities regulations and legislation … what else could be done so that new homeowners don’t bear the full burden of growth? (it’s not merely mean old rich developers who pay the fees … they pass those fees on to new homeowners). This is one bill that failed in the Virginia General Assembly a few years ago – Conditional zoning; replaces cash proffer system with system of impact fees.

The only answer which I can come up with now is that there is no easy answer as to how to pay for the impacts of growth and the lack of sufficient infrastructure, other than we can all agree that both need to be paid for, but we want someone else to pay for it.

I’m curious as to how many developments have gone by-right (not needing a rezoning) because going through the proffer/rezoning process and paying the proffers were cost-prohibitive.

If you’re curious about impact fees (which I believe are traditionally fought by real estate/developers, but I could be wrong), spend a few minutes reading the Virginia Code

A. Any locality that includes within its comprehensive plan a calculation of the capital costs of public facilities necessary to serve residential uses may impose and collect impact fees in amounts consistent with the methodologies used in its comprehensive plan to defray the capital costs of public facilities related to the residential development.

B. Impact fees imposed and collected pursuant to this section shall only be used for public facilities that are impacted by residential development.

C. A locality imposing impact fees as provided in this section shall allow credit against the impact fees for cash proffers collected for the purpose of defraying the capital costs of public facilities related to the residentialdevelopment. A locality imposing impact fees as provided in this section shall also include within its comprehensive plan a methodology for calculating credit for the value of proffered land donations to accommodate public facilities, and for the construction cost of any public facilities or public improvements the construction of which is required by proffer.

D. A locality imposing impact fees under this section may require that such impact fees be paid prior to and as a condition of the issuance of any necessary building permits for residential uses. ¶

See also, the McDonald’s theory.

And from a discussion about the comprehensive plan found at Albemarle County’s site that

The principles that can be learned from Lerner are four-fold: (1) the decision to phase or time development
should be expressed in the comprehensive plan; (2) the criteria for timing or phasing development should not be so
vague so as to permit their discriminatory application; (3) the actual timing of development should be determined by
the application of reasonably objective criteria, rather than by general statements that public facilities should be
adequate; and (4) the comprehensive plan must likely provide the means for a locality to absorb, in reasonable
measure, its fair share of growth.

In 2002 Va. Op. Atty. Gen. LEXIS 51, the Attorney General issued an opinion concluding that a locality could
adopt, as part of its comprehensive plan, a proffer policy that considers an adequate public facilities requirement.
After a survey of the applicable Virginia law, including Allman and Lerner, the Attorney General recommended that
the following criteria be used by a locality:

 The impact of the proposed development on public facilities.
 The protection against undue density of population with respect to the public facilities in existence to serve the
proposed development.
 The planning by the locality to provide public facilities consonant with the efficient and economical use of
public funds to serve the proposed development.
 The locality’s interpretation and application of its comprehensive plan concerning the timing of the
development as determined by reasonably objective criteria.

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Per the Charlottesville MLS (and acknowledging that the numbers will shift as end-of-the month-closings are entered into the system:

Some things are looking pretty good … Initially I was working with data from the Charlottesville MSA, but I had to pull the data apart and limit my query to Charlottesville and Albemarle, single family and attached homes. I wasn’t looking for hard numbers (yet) but more a sense of how fast things are selling, and hopefully what the list-to-sale ratio was in April.

In Charlottesville and Albemarle in April, for only single family and attached homes (not marked as “new construction”: (yeah, I know this would look super-cool as a snazzy info graphic, but we make decisions based on data and insight rather than pretty pictures, right? )

- 112 122 homes sold in April in Charlottesville and Albemarle

- 8 had continuous days on market of 3 or less — average DOM was 2; homes sold for 99.3% of the asking price – Price per square foot: $151

- 32 had continuous days on market of 15 or less — average DOM was 7; homes sold for 98% of the asking price – Price per square foot: $145

- 43 had continuous days on market of 30 or less — average DOM was 10; homes sold for 97.8% of the asking price – Price per square foot: $143

On the other side of the days on market conversation:

- 43 had continuous days on market of 90 – 120 days — average DOM was 189; homes sold for 94.6% of the asking price – Price per square foot: $148

- 10 had continuous days on market of 120 – 180 days — average DOM was 140; homes sold for 95.5% of the asking price – Price per square foot: $143

- 25 had continuous days on market of > 180 days — average DOM was 240; homes sold for 93.9% of the asking price – Price per square foot: $154

Short story: YOUR MARKET will vary. But – price your home just right you’re going to be better positioned to sell your house faster for closer to the asking price. Here’s the thing – there’s an outside chance you might sell your home for a little bit more if you wait for that one buyer.

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It is a shame that there’s not an existing location which would be a central hub for connectivity via foot and bicycle traffic.

Neil Williamson at the Free Enterprise Forum has more.

What’s interesting to me is that as the new Crozet Library has grown, more and more of my buyer clients are mentioning that proximity to the library is a key factor in their “where to live” equation.

Update:

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Now they’re asking for the community’s help to Kickstart their foray into covering the education side of the news.

Charlottesville Tomorrow has provided something extremely valuable – consistent reporting for many years. Here’s hoping they’re able to replicate this success in the school reporting arena.

Keep in mind – “Distance from Schools” and “Quality of Schools” are the two least-likely-to-compromise criteria for home buyers.

* Disclosure: I donated $50.

From the Kickstarter page:

Charlottesville Tomorrow will take its successful approach to in-depth community news and start covering K-12 public education in Charlottesville-Albemarle.

During June 2013 to May 2014, we will produce 2-5 education news stories a week, build a community calendar for education-related events, and create a new weekly email news service focused on education. Think of all the things Charlottesville Tomorrow does today, applied to local public education.

Our focus on the classroom will include a “Meet your Educator” series, we’ll explore our specialty centers (STEM, performing arts, etc.), we’ll have data-driven stories on student achievement and in-depth stories comparing our two school divisions. At the school board level, we’ll keep you informed about the candidates running for office and their choices on school policy, budget, curriculum, and staffing.

Our community has not had a dedicated education reporter since 2005. Local schools are a major quality of life issue and the biggest portion of local government budgets. We all want to ensure those tax dollars are being invested wisely and getting results.

Successfully preparing our children for their future requires a public engaged in the local education agenda. Economic vitality and successful local businesses require strong public schools. UVa needs strong public schools to recruit faculty.

A December 2009 study by the Brookings Institution makes the business case.

“[T]here is no substitute for day-to-day reporting on the schools. Reporters who parachute in to cover a particular school crisis are no substitute for journalists who immerse themselves both in the broader issues surrounding educational improvement and in the on-the-ground experiences of particular teachers and students and schools. We believe that partnerships between not-for-profit organizations and profit-making newspapers should be encouraged.”

Shortly before this study was issued by Brookings, Charlottesville Tomorrow launched just such a news partnership with The Daily Progress. Today 60 percent of the daily newspaper’s content on growth and development matters is written by Charlottesville Tomorrow.

With your support of this campaign, we can expand those media partnerships and the coverage of local education. We are pleased to announce that both our community’s weekly newspapers, C-Ville and The Hook, plan to publish the education news created by this project. It’s an exciting development that will ensure Charlottesville Tomorrow’s trusted reporting gets even greater exposure in our community.

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Several years ago a real estate agent I know had a buyer who was closing on a home purchase in a couple days. He called his insurance company a few days prior to closing and said he needed insurance. But.The combination of his credit (not 800+ credit score) and the house’s credit resulted in his insurance policy costing many, many times what he was expecting (and budgeting for). He no longer qualified to buy the house … and everyone found out a few days prior to closing.

Did you know that the Clue Report goes back five years into the history of a property. It is standard industry practice to purge losses over five years old“?

So … when the power went out for a week in last year’s derecho and the seller of the home you’re trying to buy filed a homeowner’s insurance claim for the $400 worth of groceries they’d just bought? That could affect the buyer’s ability to get affordable homeowners insurance.

In other words:

“Only information about property loss claims made against homeowner’s or automobile policies is included in the CLUE database. Information from the CLUE database plus your risk score make up the complete insurance risk profile. However, your credit history can play an important part in an insurance company’s judgment about your risk potential.”

Or:

When I’m putting together offers to Purchase when representing clients, I use an addendum (that has been a part of the standard Virginia Association of Realtors’ forms since at least February 2005) called the “Homeowners’ Insurance Addendum” (simple, right?). The most difficult part of this form is that most many Realtors in Charlottesville seem to have never seen this form – and many see it as an unnecessary, superfluous contingency . I don’t know why.

The form addendum is clear – it forces the buyer to ascertain within a short time period (similar to that of the home inspection contingency) that they can get affordable homeowners’ insurance – with a certain cap on the annual premium and the deductible.

Better to find out in the first two weeks if the homeowners insurance will be $4,000 per year instead of $700, right?

And: (bolding mine)

• If you file a claim for loss against your homeowner policy, the insurance company adds this information to the national database.

• The CLUE database is maintained by an information vendor, not another insurance company.

• If you apply for homeowner’s insurance with another company – say, you move to another part of the country – the new insurance company can access the CLUE database and learn of your past claims.

The CLUE report also shows the new insurer information about claims you filed under your previous insurer’s policy, although nothing filed more than five years ago. CLUE might also include information about inquiries you make, even if a claim was never submitted or paid. To find out if this practice is prohibited in your state, contact your state insurance agency. You can find contact information at www.naic.org/state_web_map.htm

Here’s why I use the form:

Home buyers who have never made a claim on their own policies are finding themselves being rejected for insurance coverage on the house they’ve just bought, because the house itself has a poor CLUE record. If you can’t get insurance coverage, you can’t get a mortgage. Worse, if you pay cash for a house and then get turned down for coverage, you can find yourself between a rock and a hard place — either paying excessive premiums to get your property protected or “going bare” with no insurance protection against a variety of perils. … Problems experienced by consumers in the homeowner’s insurance market because of errors in CLUE reports have received media attention, contributing to the perception that CLUE reports only pertain to homeowner’s insurance. CLUE reports may relate to individual homeowners or to a specific property. Reports of water damage included on a home’s CLUE report, for example, could blacklist the property, even if the owner never filed a claim and even if the real estate market is hot. Worse, the seller or buyer is not likely to know about errors in the report until the deal falls through. …

Now why wouldn’t you want to know about a house’s CLUE report?

(this is yet another reason I advise people to not file claims unless they suffer a catastrophic loss)

Update 1 May 2013 – for a much broader perspective on databases and privacy, read about CISPA, which …

will allow the government to collect all sorts of personal data from corporations, without any oversight at all, and will protect corporations from lawsuits based on their handing over that data. Without hyperbole, it’s been called the death of the 4th Amendment. Right now, it’s mainly the FBI and the NSA who are getting this data, but — all sorts of government agencies have administrative subpoena power.

Food for thought.

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There are six seats on the Albemarle County Board of Supervisors; at least two will be contested this year. Every race should always be contested, so thanks to those who are volunteering to run for seat that pay $14,542 per year.

Jack Jouett – retiring Dennis Rooker has anointed School Board Rep Diantha McKeel as his successor.

Samuel Miller – Liz Palmer, board member for Albemarle County Service Authority, will be running against incumbent Duane Snow

Rio District – Urban and Environmental planner Brad Sheffield will run again incumbent Rodney Thomas.

To my eye, the announced races seem to be very much managed-growth (challengers) versus not-so-well-managed-growth (incumbents).

Pay attention, folks. Albemarle County is (and has been for years) at a crossroads. Think less of the “Austin or Aspen or Arlington ” debate and more of the “Loudoun County or Albemarle County” debate.

Get ready as well to follow the money at VPAP, the Virginia Public Access Project.

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Click through for an outstanding infographic titled “Why Buying Local is Worth Every Cent”

*(this is a subject I touched on in last month’s monthly note from Jim)

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Even though this is what we believe to be an extremely accurate market report, it’s still a broad-brush report.

Mill Creek will have different inventory levels and absorption rates than will Old Trail, or the Gleason condos. As will different price points. i.e. – low absorption rate at $1 million + , high absorption rate in the $300k – $400k price point.

Dig in, get educated, ask questions, either in the comments below or email or call me anytime.

This is an example of how saying “sales are up” or “sales are down” doesn’t tell the whole picture.

For all residential sales year to date in the Charlottesville MSA:

Very broad takeaways -

- Inventory levels across the MSA are up, sales are down.

- Quality inventory is anecdotally way down

- In some market segments, multiple offers are common place.

- New construction is going to be a huge market segment – for better or worse.

- Being prepared to act fast – whether as a buyer or seller – is crucial.

The full report is embedded below, or download it here.

Looking at some numbers a different way – (for Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson):

Summary of this image – Inventory is down, sales are down, but Contracts are way up. Contracts are a much better indicator that closed sales as to what the market is doing right now.

Q1_2013 Cville Nest Report – Jim Duncan

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Sunday’s Daily Progress’ editorial notes –

U.S. 250 in the Crozet growth area needs to be retrofitted to accommodate the kind of traffic generated there — including pedestrian traffic.

But the issue goes deeper than that — all the way to the growth pattern that created the problem in the first place.

Within two years, two pedestrians have died near the Blue Ridge Shopping Center, on one side of the highway, and Clover Lawn Village, on the other.

These developments — along with nearby subdivisions — were approved to locate along the highway, which made a certain sense at the time by allowing traffic to take advantage of existing infrastructure.

But the growth then altered the highway usage. Traffic increased — especially vehicular traffic, but also pedestrian — and U.S. 250 went from being a through highway to serving as a local road.
The two uses are profoundly incompatible.

Here’s the thing – Albemarle County have encouraged the growth in Western Albemarle, yet they haven’t begun to address how to facilitate the moving of the people who will move there … and 250 West is likely to not be widened as it’s a Scenic Byway, advocated for by Scenic 250, “… a citizens organization dedicated to preserving the rural and scenic character of US Route 250 from Charlottesville to the western boundary of Albemarle County“.

What’s the solution? I honestly don’t yet know, but the status quo is untenable.

Have you heard of a “Stroad“?

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“… the Principles of Real Estate course doesn’t talk about completing a contract“

Because … how often does a real estate agent write a contract, right?

Note: Principles of Real Estate is the course that all new real estate licensees in the Commonwealth of Virginia must take in order to get licensed.

From the Virginia Association of Realtors’ Commonwealth Magazine -

The only true education (in anything, really) is experience. I’ve talked about this, and sat on committees (for *years* – at both national and state Realtor levels) about “real estate professionalism” … and have since resigned myself to the ineffectiveness of the political system with respect to this issue.

The only reasonable solution is an apprenticeship program.

More hours won’t solve this.

To consumers: caveat emptor as there is no viable nor valid means by which to ascertain a real estate professional’s competence online without asking another competent professional his opinion of another.

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Some context – the number of homes (single family, attached, condo) sold – in the first quarter – in Charlottesville and Albemarle since 1999:

For this story, I’m not looking at Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson, Louisa as their growth seems to have started a bit after Charlottesville’s and Albemarle’s did, respectively. Right now, I’m seeking consistent volume in the real estate market.

Single family homes are the traditional marker of the market, for the sake of consistency. Attached homes have exploded in popularity (we’ll be looking at new construction numbers next week) in the past 5-7 years.

For anyone looking to buy a home in the Charlottesville-Albemarle markets right now, five key points to be aware of are:

- Quality inventory is in high demand, low supply. Of the 550 homes (all types) in the MSA that went under contract in 1st Quarter 2013, 276 had days on market of less than 30, 214 had days on market of less than 14, 129 had days on market of less than 3! (57 had days on market of at least 300)

- Overall inventory is up (surprised, right? Me too)

- Quality, well-priced homes are selling – fast. Often with multiple offers (I’ve written several escalation clauses in the past few weeks, if you can believe it)

- Being prepared – both as a buyer and seller – is crucial. Know the market; hire a quality real estate agent, prepare your house effectively.

- Be patient. If you’re a buyer looking in particular segments, you might have to lose at least one house in the process. I know it sucks. But there will be another house.

If you’re interested in the actual numbers, click through to see the rest of the story.

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I haven’t reviewed the respective Comprehensive Plans, but the one thing that I think would be a crucial component would be how each locality plans to cooperate and collaborate with the other – particularly on infrastructure. Our locality’s inability to plan effectively and more importantly – implement and execute (at all) – are damaging to the community, real estate values and quality of life. 40 years ago, the Meadowcreek Parkway was a logical road (from what I’ve been told); today, notsomuch. But it’s the best that could be done apparently.

Naturally, Charlottesville Tomorrow reports on both.

The City of Charlottesville’s Comp Plan:

After two years of review and more than 60 meetings, the Charlottesville Planning Commission will hold a public hearing Tuesday on the document that will help shape land use decisions through 2018 and beyond.

…

The plan also includes an analysis of the city’s ability for future growth. There are currently around 10,000 potential residential units that could be built by-right, though only 800 of those would be in the city’s lower-density neighborhoods.

…

Haluska also said that the city is running out of vacant land for new residential development, so new homes will likely be built on sites that will have to be redeveloped.

And the County of Albemarle’s Comp Plan:

“[In the 2007 version] we had five sections in the Comprehensive Plan and they were kind of unbalanced,” county principal planner Elaine Echols said. “Those sections were created at different times and they each start with the growth management policy.”

“[In the current draft] we’ve pulled these sections together into one single document and moved the growth management policy [to the beginning of the plan],” Echols added, noting that these changes should decrease repetition and increase ease of use.

I’ve said many times that

The relationship between the City of Charlottesville and the County of Albemarle is akin to that of divorced parents who really kind of hate each other but are able to keep it together justenough to keep the kids fed. In this case, the kids are the citizens of Albemarle and Charlottesville.

I’d love to have a plan to force cooperation, but for now all I can say is “please, do better.”

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I hate to pick on Zillow, Trulia or Realtor.com (frankly, I’m surprised by Realtor.com)

1: If you’re looking for a house in Charlottesville to see today, use a site that is trusted as having a current, local feed from the Charlottesville MLS.

- RealCentralVA’s search

- Nest’s search

- The local Realtor Association’s site.

2: Maybe the big sites aren’t picking up the “Contingent” status as “Under Contract” – maybe they’re waiting for “Pending”

3: Two doesn’t really matter. The data’s not right.

4: Ultimately, bad data might not matter to consumers; they’re still going to use the big sites.

5: Seeing the house still being listed on all the other sites leads to confusion, mistrust and frustration – on behalf of everyone involved.

CAAR Doesn’t have it.

My site doesn’t have it.

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This month’s outline looks like I’ll be addressing a couple things -

- Evaluating the A-Team

- The impact one agent can have on the entire real estate industry

- A brief market update (summary: It’s weird and inconsistent)

- The value of emotional detachment in real estate (and some of the associated challenges)

- I’m going to pull one or more things out of my story file.

If you’re so inclined, I’d really appreciate your choosing to subscribe and read.

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