Understanding the Charlottesville area real estate market is a full-time job – representing buyers and sellers, analyzing the market, etc.; making sense of the nation’s housing market – I’d go so far as to say it’s impossible to do accurately or credibly.

For a brief summary of where we are in Charlottesville:

Nest’s January 2012 Real Estate Summary

Nest’s 2012 Annual Report

And the “Market Statistics” category in RealCentralVA. Or, better yet, if you have a question about the market, start your research looking at the broader market statistics and then, ask me.

To see the responses to the title question from those on Twitter, read the rest of the story.

In other words, as I wrote in November of last year:

The National Association of Realtors is a trade organization, whose mission is to help its members. I am grateful for what they do with respect to lobbying; someone’s gotta do it. But they are not an unbiased news (heh. do those exist?) organization. Remember that.

Ardell says it extremely well:

My point is people have to stop thinking that “a NAR” is some kind of public interest group. They are a trade association supporting a business, the same as any other commercial.

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This absolutely makes sense.

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If you use the internet or shop online or in stores, you owe it to yourself to read those two stories.

I have no doubt that the big real estate sites such as Zillow, Trulia, Realtor.com, Redfin are doing this type of deep analysis – and if you use Facebook, everything you do online is being tracked – but I’m curious as to what the triggers or specific data points are that demonstrate that a consumer is moving towards the buying or selling phase of life.

My guesses at which search queries are indicative of this shift -

- moving to (a specific location)
- buying a home in (Charlottesville)
- best schools in (Charlottesville)
- homes for sale close to (UVA)
- Best neighborhoods in (Charlottesville)

Those are obvious. I’m wondering if a sudden surge in purchases of Magic Erasers or Windex or storage facilities or which combinations of such purchases are indicative of a life stage shift …

And, the author’s suggestion to use cash to prevent companies from tracking you? That could make you a terrorist. (and if you have a cell phone, you’re being tracked anyway)

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I know consumers use these sites, but they tend to not be the most accurate if you’re looking for homes to see this weekend.

But if you’re looking for the most accurate listings and what I feel is the best, most user-friendly and functional home search tool in Charlottesville, I really and truly think that the search tool here at RealCentralVA is the best in the area.

And if you’re looking for a step-by-step guide to how to search for a home in Charlottesville, read this post written by one of my savvy clients.- Real estate search is just as fragmented in 2012 as it was in 2007.
- Knowing this, would you trust Zillow?
- And no, Zillow’s zestimates aren’t accurate in Charlottesville – by their own admission.

* I’ve found a recording studio in Crozet so I’ll be doing more videos in the near future. I think it’s all sorts of cool that by virtue of striking up a friendship with one of the local baristas, I found something I never would have otherwise.

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Redfin Gets Traditional – I’ve long admired Redfin – their use of data and technology, their willingness to counter the status quo (and back it up) and their humility and willingness to shift to the market and realize that real estate is about more than data and technology.

… This technology won’t substitute for personal relationships, but personal relationships won’t substitute for technology either. A modern brokerage can’t compete without both, and without creating a new covenant between consumers and agents. The old model is broken in some ways, but it works in others. With Redfin 3.0, our humble hope is to give our customers the best of both.

– How can builder confidence improve, single family starts increase sharply, and new home sales be unchanged?

– Are gas prices affecting your decisions? (specifically your “Where should I live” decisions?)

Thanks, GasBuddy.

– I’d probably try to go to this if I had time/connections – How People Learn About Their Local Community in a Digital Age

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See all of Nest’s videos showing Crozet, 29 North, Nelson County and Charlottesville here.

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Keep in mind that this is for the entire MLS, not just Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa and Nelson.

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The Charlottesville real estate market has gotten busier since the General Assembly’s session started so my time has been more limited (and this highlights why the only ones able to really influence legislation are the ones paid to do so).

As a consumer, agreeing to Single-Agent Dual Agency would take an awful lot of consideration and trust … and perhaps a bit of greed and ignorance.

These are the edits to the already-passed but not-yet-enacted real estate licensing law, House Bill 206:

§ 54.1-2139. (Effective July 1, 2012) Disclosed dual agency authorized.

A. A licensee may not act as a dual standard agent unless he has first obtained the written consent of all parties to the transaction given after written disclosure of the consequences of such dual standard agency. A dual agent has an agency relationship under the brokerage agreements with the clients. Such disclosure shall be in writing and given to both parties prior to the commencement of dual standard agency. The disclosure shall contain the following provisions:

1. That following the commencement of dual standard agency, the licensee will be unable to advise either party as to the terms, offers or counteroffers; however, under the limited circumstances specified in subsection C, the licensee may have previously discussed such terms with one party prior to the commencement of dualstandard agency;

2. That the licensee cannot advise a buyer client as to the suitability of the property, its condition (other than to make any disclosures as required by law of any licensee representing a seller), and cannot advise either party as to repairs of the property to make or request;

3. That the licensee cannot advise either party in any dispute that might later arise relating to the transaction;

4. That the licensee will be acting without knowledge of the client’s needs, client’s experience in the market, or client’s experience in handling real estate transactions unless he has gained that information from earlier contact with the client under the limited circumstances specified in subsection C; and

5. That either party may engage another licensee at additional cost if he requires additional representation.

B. Such disclosures shall not be deemed to comply with the requirements set out in this section if (i) not signed by the client or (ii) given in a purchase agreement, lease or any other document related to a transaction. Any disclosure and consent that substantially complies with the following shall be deemed in compliance with this disclosure requirement:

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At least Virginia will be getting $479.6 billion from the settlement. And now, FHA will be bailed out. … at what point will the government just give a million dollars to every citizen? Wouldn’t that be easier?

So now the millions of backlogged foreclosures are going to come on the market. Sometime.

Back to doing market analyses for potential sellers …

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My client posted the above comment on the site I created to help them and us track the progress of their new home. Lots of people buy and build homes; to each

Over the past couple years, I have helped quite a few clients build new homes … it’s a fun, occasionally stressful and ultimately very rewarding process to see the finished product – both my clients and the house.

To them, I say thank you. Thank you for the reminder that what good Realtors do is this: help people live how and where they want to live. Help families establish roots. Help build families.

Another reminder: There are NO “Little Deals”

*Groundbreaking is always less ceremonious than one might think. No ribbon cutting, no pomp, just a couple guys with heavy equipment digging a hole within the confines of some sticks and string.

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We had the rumors at the Nest Report a few days ago and Charlottesville Tomorrow reports this morning that the “Fifth and Avon Center is Moving Forward.“

Stay tuned – the neighborhoods in the Fifth Street and Avon Street corridors are about to get closer to stuff – which is mostly good … except for the trees and nature that will have to be destroyed to make way for said stuff.

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He had me at the warm, thick cut bacon that topped my chicken sandwich.

Note that that is chicken breast, bacon and a hard boiled egg.

Lots of whisky, and the desserts sounded tremendous … but those will have to wait for a dinner visit.

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With that preface, there are negatives about Charlottesville and while they’re all relative (traffic) I’d like to think there are solutions.

I’ve been having this conversation on Google+ and on Facebook in advance of posting here.

My answer to the question: Perhaps the single greatest negative with living in CharlAlbemarle is the collective inability of the City and County to implement plans – specifically for infrastructure. Their constant bickering, planning, fighting, planning, discussing, planning and then planning some more is remarkably irresponsible.

My other response was – when I have the free time, choosing what to do from the plethora of options – sporting events, theater, music, arts, etc. Seriously. There is so much to do that choosing how to fill my limited free time is challenging.

The responses have varied from lack of Implementation of infrastructure plans to bickering of the localities.

I said last year: When explaining the City/County relationship to relocating buyers, I often describe the governments as being akin to estranged husbands and wives who are sharing custody of the kids. Or as brothers and sisters who occasionally poke each other in the eye, just to see what will happen.

It’s true, and it’s pathetic. And ultimately detrimental to the quality of life.

Or, as the UVA Law Blog’s title says: On Consideration, Charlottesville is Awful Actually OK

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First there are two bottoms for housing. The first is for new home sales, housing starts and residential investment. The second bottom is for prices. Sometimes these bottoms can happen years apart.

…
For new home sales and housing starts, it appears the bottom is in, and I expect an increase in both starts and sales in 2012.

I place a great deal of credibility in Calculated Risk; I’ve learned a tremendous amount there over the years. I’m not certain the bottom is quite here in the Charlottesville area, but I’m inclined to think we’re close.

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In today’s market, much more so than the previous one(s), buyers are much more cognizant of the costs to operate a home.

Everyone can calculate the PITI payment – Principal + Interest + Taxes + Insurance

What’s not easily calculable by buyers is -

- How drafty is the house?

- What’s the natural gas bill?

- What’s the electric bill?

- What’s the water bill?

- Trash/recycling is a fairly fixed cost.

- Do the parents scrap over the thermostat?

- How much is my commute going to cost? (this is huge; many of my buyer clients are looking forward to the time when gas goes to $6/gallon … )

If the mortgage is going to be $2500 per month, but the utilities are $900/month, I’m thinking that my clients may be disinclined to move forward with an offer … or they might knock $30k (or some other number) off the offer price.

I said late last year that I suspect 2012 will be the year when buyers start doing energy audits as part of the home inspection process … sellers need to be prepared for this component to the home selling process.

If you’re interested in learning more about your home’s energy efficiency, Charlottesville’s Local Energy Alliance Program (LEAP) is a great place to start.

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I’ve said it before. Case Shiller’s Perspective on the Charlottesville real estate market summed up in one phrase: it doesn’t exist.

As I said this morning on Google+ -

So we’re getting ready to widely release Nest Realty’s 4th Quarter 2012 Nest Report … there’s some interesting data and analysis in there.

Combined with the reports I’m hearing from agents about the massive traffic at open houses, I’m thinking that *pockets* of the Charlottesville – Albemarle real estate markets are likely to see some stability & even price increases this year.

As far as Case-Shiller and the NAR? They don’t track our market. They’re good insofar as they give insight into other markets and their respective psychological impacts are interesting but not particularly relevant to our local market.

Here’s Nest’s 4th Quarter report – (Download your copy of the PDF here)

What we’re seeing is this:

- Buyer activity is up. Way up, over the past few months and years

- Multiple offers on desirable properties are becoming almost common place

- Foreclosures and short sales are going to be with us for a long time

- Buyers want to buy. They just don’t want to buy crap or overpriced homes.

- (some) Sellers are becoming more realistic.

As a sign of positivity:

In the Charlottesville MSA in Jan 1-30 2011, 161 properties went under contract. This year, that # is 183. Not bad.Ed Skykes with NBC 29 reported on the Nest Report and this is one of the key snips:

But even with good news, he says there is still uncertainty.  Duncan stated, “No one’s calling a bottom by any stretch. I’ve written and said for years that we’re not going to know bottom until we have a year or two of hindsight. But right now, in our microcosm, we’re seeing very positive activity.”

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If you’re looking for new ways to get around for fun or to work, or might be trying to live a greener lifestyle in 2012, why not try biking? In March 2010 we introduced biking directions and since then Google Maps has been sharing biking directions with cyclists across the U.S and Canada.

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I’m going to listen to the show (thanks to Charlottesville Podcast) and put up some show notes, but in the meantime, feel free to what I think was a pretty interesting hour of real estate.

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This stuff matters, not simply because the assessed values affect homeowners’ taxes, but the County’s entire budget and to a certain degree property values in that buyers look to assessments for an indication as to what market value may be. My opinion that that the assessment rarely is equivalent to true market value.

Aaron Richardson at the Daily Progress reported last week:

Albemarle’s county executive, Tom Foley, has told the Board of Supervisors he was basing his budget request for next fiscal year, which is still in the works, on an equalized tax rate of 76.5 cents per $100 of assessed real estate value.

Schools Superintendent Pam Moran based her budget request for next fiscal year on the same figure.

For now, the tax rate sits at 74.2 cents per $100. The equalized tax rate is the rate that would have property owners paying basically the same amount of taxes as the previous year, the side-effect of falling property values. That equalized rate is also in the county’s five-year financial plan.

County spokeswoman Lee Catlin said that the 76.5 cent rate is a “working” figure that will be finalized in the next couple of weeks as the county finishes this year’s assessments.

Board of Supervisors Chairwoman Ann H. Mallek said she is in favor of the equalized rate. Moving to the new rate, she said, will make possible long-neglected capital improvements such as the Crozet Library and a police firing range.

Assessed values have been declining for years, and they absolutely matter – to local budgets, to schools’ budgets and quality, and to communities’ qualities of life.

I’ve written about real estate assessments many times over the years; if you’re interested in this subject, you may want to spend some time reading some of those stories.

From 2007: Assessments, property taxes and shifting market values in Albemarle County and also from 2007: basing budgets on hopes rather than actuality isn’t the best approach.

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