blue chip bulldog

It Must be Monday

dianekjs@mac.com (Brinkley) — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 14:25:00 +0000

Black Friday

dianekjs@mac.com (Brinkley) — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 13:41:00 +0000

The original "Black Friday" occurred in 1869 when a couple of rogue speculators tried to corner the market on the New York Gold Exchange, triggering a financial panic and an ensuing scandal. In modern times, it has referred to the Friday following Thanksgiving when scads of shoppers traditionally swarm the stores on the biggest sale day of the year, supposedly moving retailers into the "black" and profitability. This year, early indications may be a little closer to the former designation than the latter, with global markets plunging over the holiday as news that Dubai needs to delay its debt repayment hit the airwaves. U.S. investors awakened to sharply lower futures, suggesting the long-awaited correction has at last arrived.

The /ES had formed a large head & shoulders-like pattern over the past 20 days, with clearly defined neckline support. The support was easily sliced through overnight, but was being tested as new resistance in a pre-market bounce.

-Brinkley
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Looking Through a Different Lens

dianekjs@mac.com (Brinkley) — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 14:40:00 +0000

Most traders tend to more naturally see things through either a bullish or a bearish lens-- sometimes stretching the imagination considerably in order to make a chart conform to their personal bias. This is human nature to a large extent, and learning to step back and try to see things objectively-- or differently-- is paramount to mastering the art of profitable trading. Ask yourself continually if you're using your technical analysis skills to truly analyze the charts, or are you using them to try to find a way to get them to support your preferred view?

Denial and stubbornness are powerful trading foes. Technical analysis should be employed as a dispassionate map from which to formulate your trading decisions. If you find yourself trying to guide TA instead of letting it guide you, it's time to step back and take another look.

-Brinkley
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It's Still All About the Dollar

dianekjs@mac.com (Brinkley) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:20:00 +0000

Monday, Monday

dianekjs@mac.com (Brinkley) — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 05:25:00 +0000

--Brinkley

Charting a Course in Rough Seas

dianekjs@mac.com (Brinkley) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:38:00 +0000

Bulls and bears alike have been getting tossed around in an increasingly volatile market lately, and preserving trading capital in this environment is paramount. It's an OPEX week, which heightens volatility as a rule, but there has also been a battle going on near significant long-term resistance on the major indices. The dollar continues to be the guiding force and has shown a little strength in recent sessions, causing those short the currency some angst. We'll see if there's anything to the move this time around or whether it's yet another technical bounce that will be swiftly sold at resistance. Meanwhile, futures traded down to support in pre-market trading where a short-term bounce could get underway. OPEX Friday's typically turn out to be non-events, ending the session not far from where they began it-- not that there has been anything "typical" about this market.

--Brinkley

All That Glitters

dianekjs@mac.com (Brinkley) — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:26:00 +0000

Bubbling Crude

dianekjs@mac.com (Brinkley) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:34:00 +0000

"And up through the ground came a bubblin' crude. Oil that is, black gold, Texas tea."

While the current backdrop in the energy sector may not come close to approaching Jed Clampett's windfall described in the familiar lyrics from the theme song of The Beverly Hillbillies, there are a number of interesting setups starting to take shape among select oil stocks that should at least be on the radar. First and foremost is the nice bull flag forming in USO; and although there are still more than a few messy charts scattered throughout the group, an increasing number of oil stocks are beginning to tilt bullish and may be signalling a new move on the horizon.

With a little help from Warren, XOM is flirting with long-standing resistance that it looks likely to overcome near-term. Mr. Buffett recently disclosed a rather sizeable stake in Exxon Mobile, giving the stock a boost and renewing interest in the shares.

--Brinkley

Transporting the Market Higher

dianekjs@mac.com (Brinkley) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 00:12:00 +0000

Transportation stocks put in a strong performance on Monday, with the Dow Jones Transportation Index closing at a new high for the year. Action in the group is quite bullish, and the sector is well-positioned for a new leg up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also made a new 2009 closing high, undoubtedly giving satisfaction to Dow Theorists who look upon the two indexes both as market barometers and as confirmation signals when they travel together.

--Brinkley

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Weekend Reflections and Review, Featuring Your Requests

dianekjs@mac.com (Brinkley) — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 19:00:00 +0000

So many unmistakable market messages all the way up; so much uneasiness as we climb. The proverbial "wall of worry," if you will. It would seem that an overwhelming majority of traders in the blogosphere are now absolutely convinced that a major correction is not far off, and many believe that the correction will be in the form of a catastrophic crash. Even Carl Swenlin of Decision Point, who in my opinion is one of the best technicians around today, seems to be grasping at straws somewhat as he redraws patterns to accommodate his expectations of a more extended pullback waiting in the wings. And it may well be. Volume has been drying up as price drifts higher, internals have been exceedingly bearish, and many divergences have been warning of a pending downturn for some time now. Nevertheless, price has continued to levitate, and corrections continue to be mild.

Is a more significant correction mandatory or inevitable, or could we continue to "melt up" with shallow pull-backs along the way? No one knows, but it should at least be considered that perhaps the very fact that bearish patterns have either repeatedly failed to have bearish resolutions or else have needed to be continually redrawn to remain potentially relevant is significant in and of itself. Is the market not signalling its intended direction when major trendlines are broken, only to be quickly reclaimed? Or when too many head and shoulders patterns to count fail to break down, either bouncing strongly off their necklines or vaulting northward out of the top of potential right shoulders? Food for thought, and a look at the 2003 rally off bear market lows that is shown below has some interesting parallels to contemplate along these lines.

In the meantime, we head into an Opex week parked just off rally highs. Many leading stocks ran up into the close on Friday, and we have seen some rotation into large caps in recent trading as the small caps that had outperformed for months take a well-deserved breather. The market moved higher again last week, but the bulk of the gains took place on Monday, with the remainder of the week spent more or less in a holding pattern with stocks consolidating gains while still suspended near 2009 highs.

Let's take a look at the 2003 rally off bear market lows just for fun. There are some interesting comparisons to contemplate.

And as long as we're flashing back to the prior recovery rally from bear market lows, a look at the Nasdaq from that time frame may also be of interest.

On Friday I asked for chart requests for the weekend post and said that I would select a few to include. Rosabarba submitted the Russell 2000 for consideration, which I thought was very timely and a chart I might have featured anyway, so we'll start with $RUT. It's at an interesting juncture as it has weakened considerably relative to the major indices since mid-October, correcting down to support after putting in a short-term double top at rally highs. It has had a decent rebound over the past couple of weeks, but so far the snapback rally stalled at resistance. It could be forming a complex head and shoulders pattern, or it could be getting ready to push back up after a decent correction in which important support held firm. The Russell had run up substantially more than other leading indices before its correction began, and that needs to be considered when drawing conclusions in regard to its recent weakness. From the March low to the rally high, $RUT gained roughly 82%, $NDX approximately 76%, $SPX around 66%, and the Dow bringing up the rear at 61%. Note that the patterns shown below in the $RUT chart do not line up as nicely in the chart of IWM. I would give more weight to the $RUT chart.

Sentiment Al wanted to see a chart of ATVI, and I've marked up two charts that show both a long-term and more recent view of the stock. This is a messy chart, for what it's worth-- it is more or less in no-man's land right here, but I've highlighted some key levels to monitor going forward. First up is a weekly chart.

Trader Tamas put in a request for a UUP chart, and Keith and others wanted to see the $USD again, so next up are updated charts of those. As you will notice, UUP is not following the dollar very reliably right now, as the dollar bullish ETF reportedly "ran out of shares" last week and has apparently filed an application with the SEC to issue 100 million new shares. I'd watch $USD or $DXY if you're trying to track the dollar until the UUP situation stabilizes. Little has changed in the $USD chart since it was shown on Friday-- a slight gap down and close near the low of the session, but still off November lows. For now, the chart remains bearish as it works its way down the channel and continues to break down from the massive double top.

That's it for now. If I didn't get to your chart request, I may be able to address it in the comments section on Monday. And if not, maybe we'll do this again before too long and I'll try to get you next time. Trade well. -- Brinkley
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Charts for Friday

dianekjs@mac.com (Brinkley) — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 14:32:00 +0000

Trades for 11/12/2009

bluechipbulldog@gmail.com (moo) — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:19:00 +0000

Trades for November 12, 2009
moo's /ES Range Estimate for All Sessions
E-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT

( 1072 - 1083 - 1089 - ( 1096 ) - 1102 - 1109 - 1120)

(subject to change after evening session

Trades for 11/11/2009

bluechipbulldog@gmail.com (moo) — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 13:49:00 +0000

In Honor of Your Memory and Supreme Sacrifice

Trades for November 11, 2009
moo's /ES Range Estimate for All Sessions
E-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT

(1080 - 1087 - ( 1092 ) - 1097 - 1100 - 1110 - 1120)

(subject to change after evening session)

Trades for 11/10/2009

bluechipbulldog@gmail.com (moo) — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:30:00 +0000

Trades for November 10, 2009
moo's /ES Range Estimate for All Sessions
E-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT

(1055 - 1073 - ( 1083 ) - 1100 - 1100 - 1126)

(subject to change after evening session

Trades for 11/9/2009

bluechipbulldog@gmail.com (moo) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:08:00 +0000

Trades for November 9, 2009
moo's /ES Range Estimate for All Sessions
E-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT

( 1032 - 1045 - 1055 - ( 1063 ) - 1072 - 1080 - 1095)

(subject to change after evening session

Facts of Interest

bluechipbulldog@gmail.com (moo) — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 12:55:00 +0000

Suryia the Orangutan and Roscoe the Blue Tick Hound

bluechipbulldog@gmail.com (moo) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 22:01:00 +0000

This is a follow up to a popular post recently:

http://bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com/2009/10/if-orangutan-and-hound-dog-can-get.html

I am very attached to this dog because it looks exactly like the dog I had as a child.

This is Suryia the Orangutan and Roscoe the Blue Tick Hound.

Suryia lives at the The Institute of Greatly Endangered and Rare Species in South Carolina and one day Roscoe, a bedraggled and starving stray, followed a couple of institute workers home to the institute.

Suryia immediately adopted Roscoe and even helped feed him back to health and they’ve been best friends ever since.

Chart Watch for Friday

dianekjs@mac.com (Brinkley) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 07:29:00 +0000

Trades for November 6, 2009
moo's /ES Range Estimate for All Sessions
E-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT
( 1005 - 1030 - 1045 - ( 1054 ) - 1071 - 1080 - 1105)
(subject to change after evening session

Brinkley's Market Commentary

Thursday's market rally was extremely impressive in terms of price, with the Nasdaq posting its highest percentage move in months and closing back above its 50-day moving averages, the Dow climbing just over 200 points to reclaim 10,000, and the $SPX gaining nearly 2% and closing just below critical resistance. Volume was somewhat less impressive, however, dipping slightly on the session and casting a slight shadow on the otherwise bullish session. Still, advancers comfortably outpaced decliners, up/down volume was very positive, and new highs trounced new lows. Leading stocks outperformed, with BIDU and CME each adding nearly 10 points, and AMZN, GOOG, and ISRG each gaining over 8 points.

Better than expected economic data along with upbeat earnings from Cisco sparked the rally, but the focus will turn to Friday's much-watched employment numbers scheduled to hit the wires before the open. Technically, the $SPX is approaching a critical crossroads, with a short-term bullish setup due to collide with longer-term significant resistance just above here. The morning jobs data may provide the tipping point.

First up is a look at the recent $SPX action on a 30-minute, 15-day chart. A longer-term daily chart follows.

That's it for now. Trade well. -- Brinkley

Trades for 11/5/09

bluechipbulldog@gmail.com (moo) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 11:43:00 +0000

Trades for November 5, 2009
/ES Range Estimate for All Sessions
E-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT
( 1020 - 1030 - 1038 - ( 1047.5 ) - 1055 - 1066 - 1084)
(subject to change after evening session

The Decoupling of Gold?

bluechipbulldog@gmail.com (moo) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 02:41:00 +0000

Trades for 11/4/09

bluechipbulldog@gmail.com (moo) — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 13:52:00 +0000

Trades for November 4, 2009
/ES Range Estimate for All Sessions
E-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT
( 1002 - 1020 - 1030 - ( 1038 ) - 1048 - 1055 - 1072 )
(subject to change after evening session

Trades for 11/3/09

bluechipbulldog@gmail.com (moo) — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:09:00 +0000

Trades for November 3, 2009
/ES Range Estimate for All Sessions
E-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT
( 1020 - 1026 - 1031 - ( 1038 ) - 1044 - 1050 - 1056)
(subject to change after evening session

Trades for 11/02/09

bluechipbulldog@gmail.com (moo) — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:42:00 +0000

Trades for November 2, 2009
/ES Range Estimate for All Sessions
E-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT
( 1015 - 1021 - 1031 - ( 1042 ) - 1048 - 1054 - 1064 )
(subject to change after evening session

Finding the Forest

dianekjs@mac.com (Brinkley) — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 20:29:00 +0000

The Bears Get Down

dianekjs@mac.com (Brinkley) — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 18:07:00 +0000

blue chip bulldog

It Must be Monday

Black Friday

Looking Through a Different Lens

It's Still All About the Dollar

Monday, Monday

Charting a Course in Rough Seas

All That Glitters

Bubbling Crude

Transporting the Market Higher

Weekend Reflections and Review, Featuring Your Requests

Charts for Friday

Trades for 11/12/2009

Trades for November 12, 2009moo's /ES Range Estimate for All SessionsE-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT ( 1072 - 1083 - 1089 - ( 1096 ) - 1102 - 1109 - 1120) (subject to change after evening session

Trades for November 12, 2009

moo's /ES Range Estimate for All Sessions

Trades for 11/11/2009

In Honor of Your Memory and Supreme Sacrifice

Trades for November 11, 2009moo's /ES Range Estimate for All SessionsE-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT (1080 - 1087 - ( 1092 ) - 1097 - 1100 - 1110 - 1120) (subject to change after evening session)

Trades for November 11, 2009

moo's /ES Range Estimate for All Sessions

Trades for 11/10/2009

Trades for November 10, 2009moo's /ES Range Estimate for All SessionsE-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT (1055 - 1073 - ( 1083 ) - 1100 - 1100 - 1126) (subject to change after evening session

Trades for November 10, 2009

moo's /ES Range Estimate for All Sessions

Trades for 11/9/2009

Trades for November 9, 2009moo's /ES Range Estimate for All SessionsE-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT ( 1032 - 1045 - 1055 - ( 1063 ) - 1072 - 1080 - 1095) (subject to change after evening session

Trades for November 9, 2009

moo's /ES Range Estimate for All Sessions

Facts of Interest

Suryia the Orangutan and Roscoe the Blue Tick Hound

Chart Watch for Friday

Trades for November 6, 2009moo's /ES Range Estimate for All SessionsE-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT( 1005 - 1030 - 1045 - ( 1054 ) - 1071 - 1080 - 1105)(subject to change after evening session Brinkley's Market Commentary

Trades for November 6, 2009

moo's /ES Range Estimate for All Sessions

Trades for 11/5/09

Trades for November 5, 2009/ES Range Estimate for All SessionsE-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT( 1020 - 1030 - 1038 - ( 1047.5 ) - 1055 - 1066 - 1084)(subject to change after evening session

Trades for November 5, 2009

/ES Range Estimate for All Sessions

The Decoupling of Gold?

Trades for 11/4/09

Trades for November 4, 2009/ES Range Estimate for All SessionsE-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT( 1002 - 1020 - 1030 - ( 1038 ) - 1048 - 1055 - 1072 )(subject to change after evening session

Trades for November 4, 2009

/ES Range Estimate for All Sessions

Trades for 11/3/09

Trades for November 3, 2009/ES Range Estimate for All SessionsE-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT( 1020 - 1026 - 1031 - ( 1038 ) - 1044 - 1050 - 1056)(subject to change after evening session

Trades for November 3, 2009

/ES Range Estimate for All Sessions

Trades for 11/02/09

Trades for November 2, 2009/ES Range Estimate for All SessionsE-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT( 1015 - 1021 - 1031 - ( 1042 ) - 1048 - 1054 - 1064 )(subject to change after evening session

Trades for November 2, 2009

/ES Range Estimate for All Sessions

Finding the Forest

The Bears Get Down

Trades for November 12, 2009
moo's /ES Range Estimate for All Sessions
E-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT

( 1072 - 1083 - 1089 - ( 1096 ) - 1102 - 1109 - 1120)

(subject to change after evening session

Trades for November 11, 2009
moo's /ES Range Estimate for All Sessions
E-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT

(1080 - 1087 - ( 1092 ) - 1097 - 1100 - 1110 - 1120)

(subject to change after evening session)

Trades for November 10, 2009
moo's /ES Range Estimate for All Sessions
E-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT

(1055 - 1073 - ( 1083 ) - 1100 - 1100 - 1126)

(subject to change after evening session

Trades for November 9, 2009
moo's /ES Range Estimate for All Sessions
E-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT

( 1032 - 1045 - 1055 - ( 1063 ) - 1072 - 1080 - 1095)

(subject to change after evening session

Trades for November 6, 2009
moo's /ES Range Estimate for All Sessions
E-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT
( 1005 - 1030 - 1045 - ( 1054 ) - 1071 - 1080 - 1105)
(subject to change after evening session

Brinkley's Market Commentary

Trades for November 5, 2009
/ES Range Estimate for All Sessions
E-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT
( 1020 - 1030 - 1038 - ( 1047.5 ) - 1055 - 1066 - 1084)
(subject to change after evening session

Trades for November 4, 2009
/ES Range Estimate for All Sessions
E-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT
( 1002 - 1020 - 1030 - ( 1038 ) - 1048 - 1055 - 1072 )
(subject to change after evening session

Trades for November 3, 2009
/ES Range Estimate for All Sessions
E-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT
( 1020 - 1026 - 1031 - ( 1038 ) - 1044 - 1050 - 1056)
(subject to change after evening session

Trades for November 2, 2009
/ES Range Estimate for All Sessions
E-MINI S&P 500 DECEMBER 2009 CONTRACT
( 1015 - 1021 - 1031 - ( 1042 ) - 1048 - 1054 - 1064 )
(subject to change after evening session