Bleacher Report - Articles by Donna Cavanagh

Triple-Decker Sandwich Hell Awaits Patriots

Donna Cavanagh — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 20:26:45 -0500

An NFL team plays a sandwich schedule when they play a challenging game, and "easy win" game and another challenging game. The easy game is sandwiched in the middle and often not considered something to worry about. However, these games can result in upsets when the better team eases up its play performance.

This year, the Patriots have taken the idea of the sandwich game to a new level. In fact, we might say the Patriots are working on a triple-decker threat—but instead of the usual bread and meat sandwich, they will be facing three slices of sandpaper surrounding two layers of ground glass. Doesn’t this sound appetizing?

Over the next five games, the Patriots have to play their two toughest divisional opponents, and mixed in between are the only two currently unbeaten teams left in the NFL.

While the Jets are just .500 with at 4-4 record and the Dolphins are still below .500 at 3-4, these are the two teams with the most to gain if the Patriots falter in this stretch. The gauntlet starts with the Patriots hosting the Dolphins this weekend. They then travel to the 7-0 Colts. followed by a return trip home to New England to meet the Jets.

For week four, the Patriots get an extra day to prepare for the currently unbeaten Saints. They then get one less day to prepare for their trip in week five to Miami. For these five games, the Patriots’ opponents have a combined 24-12 record.

If you are thinking the Dolphins are not quite like the team of 2008, remember they played the Colts tough and possessed the ball for about three-quarters of the game. They also had a big early lead on the Saints that they failed to hold.

The good news for the Patriots is that after these five weeks, they finish with four teams that have a combined record of just 14-16.

We point this out to you as we post this week’s version of PossessionPoints schedule analysis chart that we debuted in the article “NFL 2009 Win – Loss Records: A Look At The Schedule Excuse”

There are now five teams with records over .500 that have played opposition with combined records over .500, while there are still only four teams with records under .500 who have played teams with combined records under .500.

There are now just two unbeaten teams: the Saints and Colts. The Saints have played the tougher competition based on their win-loss records. The Saints’ opponents so far have a combined .481 record, while the Colts' past opponents have just a.340 winning percentage.

Going forward, this flips, as the Colts’ future opposition currently has a combined .537 winning percentage while the Saints’ future opponents only have a .359 winning percentage. This is why when you hear speculation about a possible 16-0 team this season, the talk usually goes to the Saints.

Ironically, the last team to go 16-0, the Patriots, appear to be the most likely to derail the Saints from that goal this year. For the Saints, they may be better off if the Patriots or some other team does knock them from the ranks of the unbeaten before the season ends. As you all probably recall, the Patriots' unbeaten season did not exactly have a storybook ending for them.

2009 NFL Doormats: Are the Losing Teams Really That Bad?

Donna Cavanagh — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 18:47:43 -0400

We are big believers in the old saying, “You are never as good as you look when you are winning, nor as bad as you look when you are losing.” With that said, we decided to take our PossessionPoints.com schedule analysis work in a slightly different direction and look at the losing teams in the NFL.

We probably do not have to tell you this, but right now the losing teams this season look really bad. After Week Seven in the NFL, there are 15 teams with records over .500, five teams with .500 records, and 12 teams under .500.

If you look at the combined records of those 12 losing teams, you will find that they have just 16 wins combined. That’s right—a 16-63 combined record for a winning percentage of just 0.203. It would seem these losing teams are the “NFL Doormats”, and they clearly have the “welcome” sign out.

We like to be thorough, so we also want to note that the .500 teams are a combined 15-15 while the winning teams are 72-25 for a winning percentage of 0.742.

Now, before we go any further with our analysis, we need to take a quick sanity check.

How different are these percentages from last season? In 2008, there were 16 teams with records over 0.500, five teams with 0.500 records and 11 teams under 0.500.

The losing teams were 46-129-1 for a 0.263 percentage; the 0.500 teams were 40-40; and the winning teams were 169-86-1 for a 0.663 percentage.

Both the distribution of teams and the winning percentage are not that far off after Week Seven of 2009 from what they were for all of 2008, so we will continue with the analysis.

We decided to look at quality wins and bad losses. We define a “quality win” as a win over a team with a .500 or better record and a "bad loss" as a loss to a team with a sub-.500 record.

So by definition, looking at the 2009 records, you can see there are 16 bad losses so far (number of wins by losing teams) and 40 quality wins (number of losses by winning and .500 teams)

There is one situation where there is double counting. When a winning team loses to a losing team, it is a quality win for the under .500 team and a bad loss for the over .500 team. When two under .500 teams, play we do record a bad loss but hey, somebody has to win. Similarly, when two over .500 teams play, somebody is going to get a quality win.

It is the double counting situation that is most interesting. This year, there have been four bad losses by currently over .500 teams. Two of those bad losses belong to the Jets as they have lost to both the Dolphins(2-4) and the Bills(3-4). Another bad loss is owned by the Eagles, who lost to the Raiders(2-5), while the final bad loss belongs to the Jaguars(3-3) who lost to the Chiefs(1-6).

Keep in mind, unlike season ending analysis on the 2008 data, this is a snapshot in time. So, for example, a win by the Bills this week which would move them up to .500, would erase one of the Jets’ bad losses.

With that said, there are a couple of other interesting things to take from the “Quality Win”(QW) / “Bad Loss” (BL) chart below. Note the Titans (0-6), Lions (1-5), Browns (1-6), Raiders (2-5), Dolphins (2-4), and Seahawks (2-4) all have no bad losses. That means all of their losses have come at the hands of teams who have .500 records or better. Conversely, the Redskins and Bucs both have three bad losses.

When we look at last season’s chart (not included in this article but available on our site ) like the one above, we note a couple of things.

First, the Packers (6-10), only had one bad loss and three quality wins, which means of their 16 games, 12 were against teams with a .500 record or better.

The second fact that stood out was that there were 10 teams with zero bad losses. The Titans, Steelers, Panthers, Cardinals, Falcons, Patriots, Eagles, Ravens, Dolphins and Saints.

Perhaps you will note from that list, the only two teams that did not make the playoffs were the Saints and Patriots. It sounds obvious, that a good path to the playoffs is to avoid bad losses.

Along these same lines, we wanted to show this weeks update to a chart we debuted a couple of weeks ago in the article “NFL 2009 Win–Loss Records: A Look At The Schedule Excuse. "

You will note that there are now three teams with records over .500 that have played teams with combined records above .500 (highlighted in green). There are also only three teams with records under .500 that have played teams with combined records of under .500 (highlighted in tan).

Of the currently unbeaten teams, the Broncos have played the best opposition so far as their past opponents have a combined record exactly equal to .500. That helps explain how they have four quality wins in the first chart.

As we said in the beginning, our philosophy has always been to find new ways to analyze all the data that comes out of the NFL. Although our approach may not be traditional, it does give fans the opportunity to see how teams truly perform from season to season.

Denver Broncos Continue To Impress

Donna Cavanagh — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 19:37:55 -0400

We admitted last week in our article “2009 NFL Surprise Teams: Broncos and Bengals” that we were wrong in our preseason expectation of the Broncos. As we said last week, we saw the disarray in the Broncos’ camp surrounding the Cutler fiasco and the Brandon Marshall suspension, and we thought the Broncos were a last place team waiting to happen.

We did a new chart last week in our article “NFL 2009 Win–Loss Records: A Look at the Schedule Excuse." In this article, we looked at all of the teams with winning records who had faced competition also with winning records. The list last week consisted of three teams, and this week there are five.

One of the things that was true last week and is still true this week is that not a single one of the unbeaten teams has faced competition with a combined record over .500, while none of the winless teams have faced competition with a combined record under .500.

However, the Broncos and Saints are actually close. In fact, for both teams, if you drop the games their past opposition has played against them, then their competition’s combined records would be over .500. This is not true for the other two unbeaten teams: the Vikings and Colts.

Going forward, the Broncos’ competition does not appear to be that tough in that they have a combined win-loss percentage of just .491. We are not trying to argue that the Broncos do not have some tough teams in their future; they do.

They still have to face the Steelers (4-2), the Colts (5-0), the Giants (5-1), the Eagles (3-2), and the Ravens (3-3). Given the way the Broncos have played the first six games, we now have to believe that they can win at least two of those five tough games.

In our PossessionPoints.com preseason preview, we said it looked like the AFC West was the Chargers’ division to lose. As we have said, that was a poor assessment. We call ourselves a “data analysis” company, so we try to learn as much from our mistakes as from our successes. So, we went back over our preseason data, and we are going to blame some of our “surprise” on human error.

It turns out our Preseason “Relative Performance Measure (RPM)” data was pointing to good things for the Broncos relative to the Chargers in their division. If you go back to our article “2009 NFL Preseason Performance Rankings” you will see we said:

“So, are we concerned about the 1-2 Chargers who have a terrible -55 RPM? Yes, we are a little. To us, this might be a warning flag. We would rather see the Chargers’ RPM up there with the 0-3 Broncos.”

In the chart in that article, the Broncos were 10th with an RPM of positive 9.96. If you read through the comments in that article you will see that we took some heat from Chargers’ fans who just wanted to throw out the preseason. We mistakenly agreed that you probably should not read too much into preseason data.

However, our stat is scoring drive-based, and good numbers can be accumulated quickly even in preseason, so perhaps we undervalued the chart a little.

If we look back on that preseason chart we see the bottom five consisted of the Raiders (currently 2-4), Chargers (2-3), Rams (0-6), Titans (0-6), and Chiefs (0-6). The top five consisted of the Saints (5-0), Falcons (4-1), Steelers (4-2), Cardinals (3-2), and Jets (3-3). We’ll remember that next year when we look at preseason performance.

This week’s regular season RPM chart has the Broncos at seventh with an RPM of positive 39. This is a really nice performance, and while their future schedule has some teams with good RPMs, only two—the Steelers and Giants—are currently higher than the Broncos.

Our RPM chart this week is below:

NFL 2009 Win – Loss Records: A Look At The Schedule Excuse

Donna Cavanagh — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 15:56:00 -0400

It does not seem to matter if your team has a good record or a bad record. Why? Because, fans, sportscasters and writers will point to your team’s schedule and tell you if their record is either the beneficiary of an easy schedule or the victim of a difficult one.

We are not going to belabor the point, but as of now we would say that there are only seven teams in the league who based on their schedule should be looking in the mirror and feeling especially proud or upset with themselves.

We have heard the schedule excuse relative to the Vikings, Giants and Redskins. Well, in the Redskins’ case, we hear how they have been responsible for the first win for three teams, and they have a 2-3 record to prove it. In fact, it is pointed out by various sources that they have not faced a team that has a win on their record at the time the Redskins played them.

Since PossessionPoints.com is a “data analysis” company, we decided to look at all 32 teams and the win-loss records of their opposition to date to see where everyone’s record and performance truly stacks up in relation to their schedule.

The results were interesting. Fifteen teams have played opposition whose current combined record is over .500. Of those teams, only three of them - the Patriots, Bengals and 49ers - have a winning record. None of the five currently unbeaten teams have played teams whose combined record is over .500.

That leaves seventeen teams to have played opposition whose current combined record is under .500. Of those teams, only four of them - the Jaguars, Bills, Texans and Redskins - have a losing record. None of the four currently winless teams have played a teams with a combined record below .500.

Does it sound too obvious to state that if you have played tough teams you have a tough time winning while if you play lesser teams you have a tough time losing?

The table below shows all the teams sorted by their past opponents’ winning percentage. The Lions and Browns have faced pretty tough competition, but at least the Browns’ future opponents have a sub .500 record. The Patriots, Bengals and 49ers, who we highlighted before, also face future competition with a sub .500 record. On the flip side, the going gets tough for the Giants, Eagles, Vikings, Ravens and Bears (unfortunately it’s no picnic for the Redskins either) as they all face future competition whose combined record is well above .500.

2009 NFL Surprise Teams: Broncos and Bengals

Donna Cavanagh — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 20:21:42 -0400

When that crazy tipped pass ending gave the Broncos their first win, many of you probably thought, like most of the humans around the office here, “Well, somebody had to win.”

We have to admit that we never thought that we would be heading into week six and that game would have provided the only loss by either team.

Although PossessionPoints.com is based on the East Coast, we do what we can to follow teams nationwide. We are avid listeners to Sirius NFL radio so we hear fans from all over the country voice their biased opinions about their teams.

As early as August, even the most optimistic Broncos fan was only expecting maybe an 8-8 season. The team had dealt away their young “franchise” QB and seemed to have gotten the short end of the deal. They were feuding with their top wide receiver, and it appeared to many that their rookie head coach may be in over his head.

The Broncos went 1-3 in the preseason, and they failed to score over 20 points in any of the four games. So, we were not expecting much out of the Broncos this season. We will admit that we said that “the AFC West was the Chargers' division to lose.” We expected the Broncos to win their first game against the Bengals because our expectations for the Bengals were a bit lower than our expectations for the Broncos.

In the Bengals' case, we thought that they would have a tough time competing in their division with the two teams (the Steelers and the Ravens) that we expected to be quite strong, like they were in 2008.

So, here we are and five weeks are gone, and the Bengals are 4-1 with wins over both the Steelers and Ravens to their credit. The win over the Ravens was in Baltimore too.

The Broncos and Bengals sit at No. 6 and No. 7, respectively, on our Performance Ranking Chart, and now we have to say we would not be surprised to see both of these teams in the playoffs.

Looking ahead at the Bengals’ schedule, you cannot count them out of any game based on the way they have been playing. And you would have to count them as the clear favorite in the games against the Raiders, Browns, Lions, and Chiefs. That would give them eight wins.

The other teams left on the Bengals’ schedule are the Texans, Bears, Ravens, Steelers, Vikings, Chargers, and Jets. No pushovers there, but if they can win just three of those seven games, it would be an astounding feat and an 11-win season. Don’t tell the Patriots, but 11 wins usually makes the playoffs.

The road ahead for the Broncos is equally promising. They have five wins in the bank and still have two games with the Chiefs, one with the Redskins, and one with the Raiders ahead of them. With these opportunities in mind, let us say that the low expectation for the Broncos is nine wins.

They just beat the Patriots, so you have to count that game as well as the games against the Cowboys and Bengals as quality wins. Their immediate future is the toughest as they face the Chargers, Ravens, and Steelers in the next three games.

The Broncos get a break in that their bye falls right after the Chargers’ game, and that will give them a rest to prepare for the Ravens. The game with the Redskins follows the Steelers’ game and then the Broncos once again face the Chargers. However, this time the contest is in Denver. Denver still has the Giants, Eagles, and Colts on their schedule, so they do not have a “soft” schedule.

If they win the games we now expect them to win to get to nine wins, they only need to win two of the games against the Steelers, Ravens, Chargers (twice), Giants, Colts, and Eagles.

Hey, the Bengals beat both the Steelers and Ravens, and they have about the same “Relative Performance Number” (RPM) as the Broncos. (For more information on our RPM see our article on Week Two Performance Rankings, where we explain them in more detail.)

We actually enjoy “surprises” in the NFL. We find it interesting as our stat-based projections put out predictions that the humans in the office sometimes do not believe.

We shook our heads each week that our Matchup Chart picked the Bengals and Broncos, but so far they have lived up to their stats and won. The Matchup Chart did pick the Patriots to win last week, but the computer thought the game would be close enough that it had the Broncos with the points. That served us well anyway.

We can't wait to see what surprises the remainder of the season brings.

The full Week Six RPM chart is below:

Saints Shine in First Quarter of 2009 NFL Season

Donna Cavanagh — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 16:51:59 -0400

The Saints are one of the teams to start this year with a record of 4-0. At PossessionPoints.com, our expectations were high for the Saints this season as we expected that they would win their division and play the Giants in the NFC championship. Nothing we have seen in the first quarter of this year makes us rethink our projection. If we were to rethink anything, it might be the expectation of the Giants as the NFC champions.

The Saints currently have the best Relative Performance Measure in the league with an RPM of 68.6. (For more details on the PossessionPoints.com RPM see the Bleacher Report article “Week 2 Performance Rankings” where we do a more through explanation of this measure).

The Saints have achieved their 4-0 record while facing teams with a combined record of seven wins and eight losses or a .467 winning percentage. The four teams that they have played have a combined RPM of -20. By either measure, their first-quarter schedule ranked 20th in the league.

Their schedule going forward does not look much tougher. Their future opponents have a combined record of 16 wins and 28 losses for a winning percentage of .364 which is the lowest winning percentage of any team’s future opponents’ schedule. By the RPM measure, their future opponents have a combined -96 which ranks 27th in the league.

By contrast, the Giants have played teams with a combined record of four wins and 12 losses (a 0.250 winning percentage) and an RPM of -103. The negative 103 RPM was the easiest four game combination in the league. By combined record, the .250 winning percentage also ranked as the easiest in the league.

Going forward, the Giants’ future opponents have a combined 26 win - 17 loss record (0.605 winning percentage) and a combined RPM of -2. From a winning percentage point of view, that is the second toughest schedule while from an RPM point of view it is the 14th toughest.

Our outlook looks bright for the Saints. Their schedule does not look tough, and their performance has been outstanding. If they keep it up, we could easily see them playing the Giants, who are number two on our RPM chart with an RPM of 56, in the NFC championship game which was our original forecast for them.

The full Week 4 Performance Ranking chart is below:

NFL Week Two Performance Rankings

Donna Cavanagh — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 19:14:16 -0400

In our articles, we often refer to our “Relative Performance Measure” or (RPM) which is the statistic we use to make up our performance rankings. Unfortunately, it is impossible to explain our RPM fully in each article, but we do get questions from readers such as “What is your RPM?” and “Why is it significant?”

Since it is early in the season, and there are only two games to go on with our RPM, we thought we’d take the time here to explain what they are, and why they are significant.

What are the PossessionPoints.com RPM numbers?

This may take some time to explain, so be patient and stay with us. You won’t be sorry.

The basic PossessionPoints.com stat is an offensive measure. It is a blended stat (which means it is generated by a mathematical formula from other stats and game information). As the name implies, “time of possession of a scoring drive” and “points scored on a drive” are key components. The quarter in which the points are scored also come into play.

As an offensive measure, we have key cutoffs at 60 and 100 (From analyzing numbers, we determined that 60 and 100 were significant levels where winning percentages changed.) This is where our color codes come in.

We turn an offense “yellow” at 60 and “green” at 100. From the time that we have been keeping this stat from the 2006 season, we have noticed that a team that gets to the “green” level of offensive performance, wins better than 75 percent of the time.

The defense of a team is measured by how many PossessionPoints it allows the opponent’s offense to total. The same key cutoffs apply, but this time we start a defense “green” and turn it “yellow” at 60 and “red” at 100. A team, that keeps its opponent below 60 (Green), wins better than 80 percent of the time.

We have talked about offense and defense but haven’t mentioned RPM yet. To get a “team” measure in a game, we simply subtract their defensive PossessionPoints performance from their offensive performance. This net number can be positive or negative and has its own significance.

You’ll note the 40-point yellow range in the offensive and defensive numbers. That range has significance here also. We color the net “green” at positive 40 and “red” at negative 40. Here a green net equates to better than 90 percent winning. This net number is a single game “Performance Measure.”

Our season “Relative Performance Measure” is the average that a team has performed in all of the games they have played.

Why is the RPM significant?

This is an interesting question because different people find significance in different numbers so we will look at a couple of things. As you know, 12 teams make the playoffs each year. Based on end-of-regular-season RPM’s, eight of the top 12 RPM teams in 2006 and 2008 made the playoffs, and 10 of the top 12 in 2007 made the playoffs.

In 2006 and 2007, five of the seven teams with the lowest RPMs to make the playoffs lost their first game, and in 2008 six out of seven lost their first game. In 2008, three of the top four were in the Conference championship games, and in 2006 and 2007 it was two out of four.

Another way to look at significance is to look at a team that this season is defying the PossessionPoints stat, and is 2-0 despite a very red -66 RPM. That team is the Colts.

In 2006, the Colts went 12-4 and won the Super Bowl. They finished the regular season with an RPM of 17 which was tenth in the league. They owe it all to their offense who was first with an average 134 PossessionPoints per game. Their defense was dead last with an average of 116 PossessionPoints allowed. But they won it all.

However, if you remember, their defense came alive in the playoffs and performed to an average of just 53 PossessionPoints allowed in the Playoffs. So, there was no surprise that this new-found defensive strength coupled with their famed offense, proved to make the Colts unstoppable that year in the Playoffs.

In 2007, the Colts as a team did better in the regular season with an RPM of 29, but their offensive performance fell a little to 124 while their defense improved to 94. They went 13-3 and got a first-round playoff bye. They met the 11-5 Chargers who had the No. 2 defense that year and an RPM not far behind the Colts at 23. The Chargers’ prevailed 28-24, and the Colts were one and done in the Playoffs.

In 2008, the Colts were again 12-4 like 2006, but this time they were one of the few teams to ever make the playoffs with a negative RPM. Last season, they had a -6 RPM and had to travel to San Diego to play the Chargers in the first-round game.

The Chargers’ regular season RPM was 29. It was by no means a mismatch, but the Chargers did prevail 23-17, and the Colts were once again one and done.

We find significance in winning football games, but can a team win without following the PossessionPoints formula? Sure, it seems the Colts are trying harder than ever to prove it in 2009, but we wouldn’t count on it. More likely the Colts will take a deep breath, realize they are fortunate to be 2-0 and make fixes that will result in them performing better by our measure.

On to the Week Two Rankings:

As the season goes on and there are more weeks of data, we would stack our stat-generated “performance rankings” against any opinion-based “power rankings.” Early in the season with only two games done, many position changes for the teams are still ahead of us.

Does it surprise anyone that the Jets are on the top of the performance rankings after two weeks? The probability is that their numbers cannot stay this strong. An RPM of 100 is way more than the Patriots’ 2007 RPM of 83.

That RPM was off the charts for a full season. By comparison, last year the Steelers after the Super Bowl had the top RPM, but it was only 37. So, we have to believe the Jets will come back to the pack a bit, and the question we have to ask is that as they get reeled back in will they continue to win?

Behind the Jets are the Saints, while the Jets have been defense led (allowing only 23 PossessionPoints per game) the Saints as you probably have guessed have been offense led posting an average of 163 PossessionPoints per week.

It’s a long season, but those two teams are off to a great start. We could talk a lot more about the chart below, but we spent a great deal of space trying to answer some questions we have gotten in the past.

NY Giants Will Win It All: A 2009 Bold NFL Prediction

Donna Cavanagh — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 18:49:58 -0400

Opening night kickoff is only a short time away, so we figured now was the time to make our “out on a limb” call for who we think will end the season holding the Lombardi trophy.

We are sure you must be wondering what flawed logic went into this prediction, or maybe you are thinking that we are just Giants fans pushing our team.

Well, to be honest, maybe our logic is flawed, but we are not Giants fans trying to drum up support. We write on all teams and try to avoid sounding like we have a favorite. (The truth is we are all human, and we were fans before we started in the football stat business, so we do have our favorites. You'll just never know who they are.)

Now, we will be the first to admit that we are out on a limb with this projection.

What is the basis for this bold prediction? We put out a “Detailed Analysis of the 2009 Season” article a couple of days ago. You can go there and read about all 32 teams.

In that article we talked about each team and played their schedule against adjustments we made to our PossessionPoints.com stats. Those adjustments then gave us best case, worst case, and an expected season record.

As for the Giants, we say we are out on a limb chiefly because they are the only team where our expected record (13-3) matches what we came up with as a "best case." And our worst case expectation is an 8-8 record. So, there is clearly more downside in our view than upside to this prediction.

When and if you read the “Detailed Analysis” article, you will see that we used our PossessionPoints stat and made adjustments to it in percentage terms and played that against each team’s 2009 record.

We settled on a downward adjustment of five percent to the Giants’ offensive numbers and a very small upward adjustment of two percent to their defensive numbers. That gave us the projected 13-3 record, the NFC East division title, and a first-round bye.

In our view, the biggest question mark for the Giants is with their wide receiver corps. Who will emerge as the No. 1 receiver, and who will make up for the loss of Plaxico Burress?

This loss of a key weapon was our reasoning for dropping the Giants’ offense by five percent. The return of Osi Umenyiora was the main driving factor in the upward adjustment of two percent of their defense.

If the season plays out to our adjustments, the Giants will be playing the Saints in the NFC championship and the Steelers in the Super Bowl. The Steelers will have also beaten the Patriots in Pittsburgh to get to the Super Bowl.

It is always fun to go “on the record” with our projections, but this one will be tough. We honestly feel that at least 14 of the 32 teams have a real shot at the Lombardi trophy, so it appears to us to be a wide-open year.

This season should be a lot of fun, but we had to come down to just one and we didn’t make outlandish adjustments to “prop” up the Giants, so we’ll stand by it.

2009 NFL Season Detailed Analysis – Best Case / Worst Case Projections

Donna Cavanagh — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 18:45:54 -0400

As we did in 2008, we published our PossessionPoints.com “Preseason Preview” a couple of weeks ago before the first preseason game was even played. In this preview, we go through the full 256-game NFL schedule and look at how we think each team will do.

We wanted to give our Bleacher Report readers a synopsis of the preview, so here it is. Keep in mind that even though we call this a synopsis, this is a detailed, and we mean detailed, analysis. Going through 32 teams takes time and space. So, get yourself a cold drink or a cup of coffee, perhaps a pizza and sit down and enjoy!

One nice thing about the PossessionPoints stat is that it lends itself well to mathematical manipulation. So, we look at how teams did by our stat both offensively and defensively in the prior year, apply adjustments we feel account for off-season changes, then run their new stat against their 2009 schedule and see how they do.

Sound pointless? Well, we used the same methodology last year and our picks went 153-103. That was good enough for a top 10-finish in a contest with 300+ people picking games each week. They had the benefit of up-to-the-minute injury data and other variables, while our picks were made in July. So needless to say, we saw no reason to change this methodology.

We aren’t going to go into all the detail in this article that we did on each team in our preseason preview. We will provide readers who want to read the full 35-page preview a link at the end of the article. You can read it for free.

With each team, we accept the possibility that our expected case adjustments may be wrong. We intentionally try to be conservative so as to get a “middle” expectation. We then go to extremes, both positive and negative, and rerun the season. This gives us an idea of who the “surprise” good, and “surprise” bad teams might be.

Most teams in the NFL have a pretty wide range. If they stumble, they could be very bad, but if things fall right, they could have a season to remember. We find it a fun exercise to see where a team’s extremes could fall. Some teams surprised us, and our findings may cause you to raise an eyebrow also.

The other thing we love to look at is which conference do we think will be stronger in the coming season, and this year we think the balance of power is swinging to the NFC. In 2007, the NFC and AFC split their inter-league games 32-32, last season the AFC had a slight edge, 34-29-1 (Bengals and Eagles tied). The numbers we settled on this season, have the NFC winning 36 of the 64 inter-league games and the AFC winning just 28..

When it comes to the overall division records, we hope, for football fans in the west, we are wrong. But in both conferences, the western divisions are the only ones who fall below .500 (in the NFC the west is 29-35 while in the AFC total to just 23-41).

In each of the team write-ups, you will see a “projected record”. That will be followed with what their rank in the league was by our PossessionPoints stat for both offense and defense in 2008.

After that we show you the adjustment factors we settled on to for their offense and defensive numbers. All teams’ final adjusted numbers were played against the 2009 schedule to get their “projected record”. Next, you will see best and worst case scenarios, which we talked about earlier, followed by some quick observations.

Enough of the preliminaries, we promised you a team-by-team analysis and by gosh you are going to get it. We’ll start with the AFC.

AFC East:
Patriots:
Projected Record 13-3
2008 Offense Rank: 4th                Defense Rank: 11th
Offense Adjustment: +5%           Defense Adjustment: -5%
Best Case Record: 16-0                Worst Case Record: 6-10
Quick Observations: The return of Tom Brady could easily mean the Patriots have a bigger offensive adjustment than the 5% we put in. Could the Patriots go 16-0 again? Probably not, but being a stats-based manipulation, you can’t fault the computer for putting it out there.

The 6-10 downside is what surprised us a little. It indicates to us that the 2008 Patriots really did come “back to the pack” some, compared with where they were in 2007, plus the fact that the other teams in their division have improved since then.

Bills:
Projected Record 8-8
2008 Offense Rank: 23rd               Defense Rank: 18th
Offense Adjustment: +15%          Defense Adjustment: +15%
Best Case Record: 10-6                Worst Case Record: 2-14
Quick Observations: Perhaps, the addition of T.O. won’t make a difference to the Bills but that wouldn’t follow the pattern of T.O. which is that things go well the first year he plays on a new team. In reality, the teams finishing 2-4 in this division could end up in just about any order.

While we have the expected records of the Jets and Dolphins below the Bills, both of them have a better best case than the Bills. That is mostly due to the fact that we settled on a pretty aggressive upward adjustment for the Bills, while we were both conservative and pessimistic with the Jets and Dolphins. Time will tell.

Jets:
Projected Record 7-9
2008 Offense Rank: 10th               Defense Rank: 9th
Offense Adjustment: -5%             Defense Adjustment: 0%
Best Case Record: 13-3                Worst Case Record: 2-14
Quick Observations: The Jets made substantial improvements in 2008 with Brett Favre at quarterback. Their offense improved 43% from their 2007 level, so we are going with a small fall of in the offense due to another quarterback change.

These numbers and projections remember, were done before the first preseason game, and well before Mark Sanchez was named as the starter. If Sanchez is the real deal, then perhaps the Jets’ offense will not fall off at all, and they head toward their best case of a 13-3 record. Their best case is high because they were a top 10 offense and defense in the PossessionPoints stat last year.

Dolphins:
Projected Record 5-11
2008 Offense Rank: 13th               Defense Rank: 10th
Offense Adjustment: 0%             Defense Adjustment: -5%
Best Case Record: 12-4                Worst Case Record: 2-14
Quick Observations: We can hear Dolphins’ fans screaming. “How can you
take a playoff team from last year and project a 5-11 record?” Well, by our calculation, based on last year’s performances, the Dolphins’ 2009 schedule is the second toughest in the league.

Although the “wildcat offense” will not take anyone by surprise this season, Miami did add one of the best running quarterbacks in College football history, Pat White, to their roster. This could produce significant new wrinkles that opposing defensive coordinators must plan for. So, even though the Dolphins will have a difficult schedule, we left their offensive PossessionPoints unchanged from 2008. Not every team can improve, so we did cave into the hard schedule and drop their defensive numbers by a small 5%.

Like the Jets in this division, there is a wide range in the Dolphins’ possible results, again this is because they were in the high-middle in both offense and defense last year, and small changes could change their rank and performance dramatically.

Overall for the AFC East we have them just over .500 at 33-31.

AFC North:
Steelers:
Projected Record 14-2
2008 Offense Rank: 15th                Defense Rank: 2nd
Offense Adjustment: -5%           Defense Adjustment: -5%
Best Case Record: 15-1                Worst Case Record: 6-10
Quick Observations: The Steelers were a very good PossessionPoints team in 2006, 2007, and 2008. Their offense actually went back by 19% in 2008 while their defensive PossessionPoints performance improved by 16%. In last year’s Preseason Preview, we reduced their offense by 10% and left their defense unchanged and projected a 12-4 record. This year could be another great year for the Steelers.

We continue to bring their PossessionPoints projections back with the rest of the pack of the league. We reduced their offensive and defensive numbers by 5%. This does not matter much in our eyes, because unlike 2008, when we viewed their schedule as the toughest in the league, this year they have the fifth-easiest schedule based on teams’ 2008 PossessionPoints numbers. Even with the negative adjustments, the computer spit out a forecast of a 14-2 record and a return trip to the Super Bowl.

Ravens:
Projected Record 12-4
2008 Offense Rank: 19th                Defense Rank: 1st
Offense Adjustment: 5%           Defense Adjustment: 0%
Best Case Record: 15-1                Worst Case Record: 9-7
Quick Observations: The Ravens reversed their fortunes in a big way in 2008. After a horrible 2007, the Ravens got their defense back on track and led the league by our PossessionPoints measure. This got them a wild card playoff berth and carried them to a game short of the Super Bowl.

We do not see a repeat of the 2007 let down, and we expect the Ravens will continue to improve as Joe Flacco, their surprising rookie QB from last year, enters his second full season. So, we improved their offense by 5% and left their league-leading defense unchanged. Hopefully, the loss of Coach Rex Ryan doesn’t detract from their defense. Their worst case number shocked us in that they were the only team with a better than .500 worst case.

This, we can attribute to the fact that the first-place rank on defense doesn’t tell the story. By the PossessionPoints measure they were 19% better than the second-place Steelers defense, so even when we aggressively turned down the Ravens, their defense kept them winning more games than they lost.

Browns:
Projected Record 5-11
2008 Offense Rank: 30th                Defense Rank: 13th
Offense Adjustment: 20%           Defense Adjustment: 10%
Best Case Record: 11-5                Worst Case Record: 1-15
Quick Observations: The Browns stumbled big time in 2008 in terms of offensive PossessionPoints and wins, and it cost coach Romeo Crennel his job. The Browns’ offensive PossessionPoints numbers fell by 34% from their 2007 level. Injuries and ineffective performance plagued the quarterback position in particular. Will Coach Mangini have more success?

We think he could help, and we adjusted the Browns offensive PossessionPoints number up 20% and their defensive number up 10%. Those are pretty significant upward revisions, but coaching changes seem to be able to rapidly re-establish performance when there was a rapid falloff the year before.

Witness the 2006 to 2007 to 2008 Ravens: good, bad and back to good after a coaching change. That’s the good news. The bad news is even with the aggressive adjustments, the Browns were still projected sub .500. It takes even more radical adjustments to get to their best case of 11-5. Browns’ fans, you don’t want to think about the downside.

Bengals:
Projected Record 2-14
2008 Offense Rank: 32nd               Defense Rank: 21st
Offense Adjustment: 25%           Defense Adjustment: 10%
Best Case Record: 6-10                Worst Case Record: 0-16
Quick Observations: The Bengals were a bad PossessionPoints team in 2008 with a poor road record of 4-11. Their offense was dead last in the league at 32nd which was a 42% fall off from their 2007 offense that was seventh best in the league. Their defense last season was no glimmer of light either as they were 21st in the league.

Hopefully for the Bengals, 2009 will finally find a 100% healthy Carson Palmer. We have built that in and improved their offensive numbers by 25%. However, we did not bring them all the way back to 2007 levels because we think the loss of TJ Houshmandzadeh will be felt. The 2008 defensive performance was within one percent of 2007’s performance, so we think this year, Marvin Lewis will get his defense going a bit more. In anticipation of this defensive bump, we adjusted the defensive number up 10%.

Even with all these positive adjustments, the effects of having the 10th hardest schedule in the league by our calculation, causes the computer to spit out a very disappointing 2-14 record. It only likes home wins against the Lions and Chiefs.

Overall for the AFC North we also have them just over .500 at 33-31.

AFC South:
Texans:
Projected Record 10-6
2008 Offense Rank: 6th                Defense Rank: 17th
Offense Adjustment: 0%           Defense Adjustment: 5%
Best Case Record: 13-3                Worst Case Record: 8-8
Quick Observations: Coach Gary Kubiak is entering his fourth season at Houston, and we think conditions may just be right for his team to be the “surprise” team of 2009. If we are right in that the Colts experience some adjustment struggles with their coaching changes, and the Titans do not enjoy the kind of success they had in 2008, then the door opens for this young and talented team.

The Texans had the surprise rookie running back last year in Steve Slaton, and he is quite the complement to their all-world wide receiver Andre Johnson. If Slaton can avoid a sophomore slump, we feel quite confident that the Texans can equal their offensive PossessionPoints performance which was a quite good sixth in the league. So, we left their offense unchanged and upped their defensive performance, which was 17th in the league last season, by a conservative 5%. Based on last year’s team performances, the Texans have the fourth easiest schedule
in the league this season. All of these factors came together, and our computer spit out a 10-6 projection and a win of the AFC South.

Do not get too carried away Texans’ fans, as the South is a very good division and in reality, we wouldn’t be surprised if any of the four teams in the division were to win it.

Titans:
Projected Record 9-7
2008 Offense Rank: 22nd              Defense Rank: 5th
Offense Adjustment: 5%           Defense Adjustment: 2%
Best Case Record: 11-5                Worst Case Record: 7-9
Quick Observations: Last season, the Titans made Kerry Collins the starter and moved a troubled Vince Young to backup. Given the success the Titans had last season, Tennessee signed Collins to a two-year, $15 million contract. There is no QB controversy as the starting job is Collins’. The Titans’ offense wasn’t what propelled them to success last season based on our PossessionPoints numbers. They were 22nd in the league while their defense was an astounding fifth. So, for this season, we like the stability at QB as well as the running back tandem of Chris Johnson and LenDale White. We decided to give the Titans a 5% positive adjustment. While there isn’t much room for defensive improvement, we also moved that unit up, but by only 2%. The computer ran through the schedule, which based on last year’s opponent performances, is the 13th toughest in the league, and it produced a 9-7 record. The Titans are one of the few teams with a pretty tight range as we have them with a worst case of just 7-9. Like the Ravens, they can thank their good defense for that.

Colts:
Projected Record 8-8
2008 Offense Rank: 14th               Defense Rank: 27th
Offense Adjustment: 20%           Defense Adjustment: 5%
Best Case Record: 12-4                Worst Case Record: 3-13
Quick Observations: The Colts had a very good 12-4 record last season, but based on their PossessionPoints numbers, we would view them as overachievers. While in past seasons, they were typically a top-five PossessionPoints offensive team, in 2008 they ranked just 14th. This represented a 17% fall from their 2007 performance. However, let’s remember that their season was basically split. In the beginning, Peyton Manning was struggling to get back from off-season knee surgery and an infection which caused Manning to miss the entire 2008 preseason. The Colts’ numbers were markedly different in the last nine games as opposed to the first seven.

We decided to adjust the Colts up to the performance levels of the last nine games of last year. So, we upped their overall offense 20% and their defense 5%. The defensive adjustment may be doubtful if oft-injured star safety, Bob Sanders, doesn’t come back 100% from his current knee injury. The Colts have the 12th most difficult schedule in the league based on our stats, so even with the positive adjustments, the computer only yielded an 8-8 result.

The Colts have one of the widest possible ranges, and this is due to their 27th ranked defense. If their performance falls off instead of improving then the Colts could find themselves on the short side of a lot of high scoring games.

Jaguars:
Projected Record 8-8
2008 Offense Rank: 18th               Defense Rank: 22nd
Offense Adjustment: 5%           Defense Adjustment: 5%
Best Case Record: 12-4                Worst Case Record: 4-12
Quick Observations: PossessionPoints has the Jaguars listed last in the AFC South, but as we have said in other team write-ups, this division could be won by any of the four teams. The Jaguars had an off year in 2008. Their offensive numbers were off 23% while there defensive numbers broke down and tumbled over 31%.

Many people blame a rash of injuries, and we won’t argue with that. We do not think Jack Del Rio has lost his touch with the team. The offensive line had considerable injuries last year, so the Jaguars addressed that with their first-round pick of Eugene Monroe. Monroe missed the first few weeks of camp while his contract was being worked out, but he finally signed on August 14th. Time will tell if the missed practice time has an effect on the highly touted rookie.

We adjusted the Jaguars offense and defense up five percent, not bringing them back to their 2007 level, but certainly an improvement over last season. By our numbers, the Jaguars have the 11th easiest schedule, so even with the modest improvements we made, the computer yielded an 8-8 result for the Jags.

Like the Colts, the Jaguars have a pretty wide range in our best and worst case numbers. They are in the low middle with their 2007 offensive and defensive numbers, so again they are prime candidates for large movements.

Overall for the AFC South we have this division with the best overall record in the AFC at 35-29. No matter which teams wins this division, we would not count that as a surprise.

AFC West:
Chargers:
Projected Record 12-4
2008 Offense Rank: 1st                 Defense Rank: 15th
Offense Adjustment: 0%           Defense Adjustment: 0%
Best Case Record: 13-3                Worst Case Record: 6-10
Quick Observations: Norv Turner has flirted with disaster his first two seasons as Chargers coach. Last year, they won the division with an 8-8 record basically because of a monumental collapse by the Denver Broncos.

However, from a PossessionPoints standpoint, 2008 was not so bad and unlike the Colts who overachieved relative to their PossessionPoints stats, the Chargers underperformed. The Chargers were first in offense but 15th in defense. This left them seventh overall in our performance rankings.

Given where they were, we decided to leave both their offensive and defensive numbers unchanged, as we didn’t see any significant events in the off-season that would push us to make adjustments.

We did consider the return of Shawne Merriman, who missed all of last season with a knee injury, but in the end we went with the conservative approach and left it unchanged. The result is that once again that the Chargers will win the AFC West with a projected record of 12-4.

The best case is pretty close to what we see as the “best case” of 13-3 so it would seem like there is a lot more downside in the Chargers’ prediction than there is upside.

Raiders:
Projected Record 6-10
2008 Offense Rank: 31st                 Defense Rank: 26th
Offense Adjustment: 30%            Defense Adjustment: 20%
Best Case Record: 8-8                  Worst Case Record: 4-12
Quick Observations: In 2008, the Raiders backslid on their PossessionPoints offensive and defensive performances. They went backwards 22% on offense and 19% on defense. It is not surprising that Lane Kiffin lost his job although the circumstances surrounding the dismissal were a bit on the bizarre side even for Al Davis.

Then, there was the 2009 draft where the Raiders shocked the “experts” by selecting Darrius Heyward-Bey with their first round selection. It was very hard to gauge what kind of adjustments we should make to the Tom Cable-led Raiders. The Raiders played spoiler in the final game of the season and knocked the Bucs out of the playoffs (allowing the Eagles to sneak in). That takes some doing to get a team with a bad record to beat a team with a potential playoff future.

So, we went with very optimistic adjustments of 30% on offense and 20% on defense. Even with these incredibly large adjustments, the projection for the 2009 Raiders came out to be only be 6-10.

We can probably chalk that up to the Raiders having the eighth toughest schedule based again on the 2008 PossessionPoints performances of their 2009 opponents. The Raiders have one of the tightest ranges between best and worst case, only four games separate the best case of 8-8 and worst case of 4-12.

Chiefs:
Projected Record 3-13
2008 Offense Rank: 24th                Defense Rank: 29th
Offense Adjustment: 15%            Defense Adjustment: 15%
Best Case Record: 11-5                Worst Case Record: 1-15
Quick Observations: Last year, our preseason preview for the Chiefs started out “Dear Herm (Edwards): You have your work cut out for you this year.” Unfortunately, our projections proved optimistic as the Chiefs only won two instead of the projected three games.

The 2008 Chiefs were not a very good PossessionPoints team as they were 24th in offense and 29th in defense. The Chiefs tried to address their defensive inequities in the draft by selecting defensive end Tyson Jackson, defensive tackle Alex Magee and corner back Donald Washington with their first three picks. They also addressed the offense by getting quarterback Matt Cassel.

Given these changes, we adjusted the Chiefs’ offense and defense up by 15% each. It didn’t have much of an effect as the computer still only saw fit to favor them in three home games against the Raiders, Broncos and Browns. However, there is a wide spread with the Chiefs so if things do manage to click, they could be a surprise team this year pushing the Chargers.

Broncos:
Projected Record 2-14
2008 Offense Rank: 11th                 Defense Rank: 30th
Offense Adjustment: -5%             Defense Adjustment: 0%
Best Case Record: 7-9                  Worst Case Record: 1-15
Quick Observations: The Broncos had the playoffs made last season, and it looked like the Chargers were done. All the Broncos needed to do was win one of their last three games, but Denver seemed to fall apart, and they lost all them all. The Broncos of 2009 will be very different than the Broncos of 2008.

Gone are quarterback Jay Cutler and coach Mike Shanahan. The 2009 Broncos will be led by quarterback Kyle Orton and coach Josh McDaniels. McDaniels is off to a rocky start in Colorado. He will need to quickly get the focus off the off-season loss of Cutler at quarterback and onto football.

We think the production of Cutler will be difficult to replace even with the addition of rookie running back Knowshon Moreno. If they still had Cutler and added Moreno, we would be making a positive adjustment, but the loss of Cutler causes us to take 5% off their offensive numbers from 2008.

We left their defense unchanged. The projection was for a division trailing 2-14 record. That could make things mighty uncomfortable for rookie coach McDaniels. Even our best case is a sub .500 7-9.

Overall for the AFC West we have this division with the worst overall record in the AFC at just 23-41. This division really looks like the Chargers to lose, and we think they will have a hard time losing it.

NFC East:
Giants:
Projected Record 13-3
2008 Offense Rank: 2nd               Defense Rank: 6th
Offense Adjustment: -5%           Defense Adjustment: 2%
Best Case Record: 13-3                Worst Case Record: 8-8
Quick Observations: The Giants were a very good PossessionPoints team last year as they were second in offense and sixth in defense. They lost in the playoffs to a likewise good PossessionPoints team, the Eagles.

It is hard to see the Giants improving on last season offensively especially with the loss of Plaxico Burress who almost certainly will not be playing in the NFL this season. The Giants’ offense did tail off late last season after they lost Burress, so in this off-season, they drafted a wide receiver Hakeem Nicks. Unfortunately, he alone can’t replace the production of Burress.

The Giants also lost Derrick Ward to free agency to the Bucs who picked up the Giants number two running back from last season. They also tried to address that loss in the draft by picking Andre Brown from NC State. Unfortunately, he tore his Achilles tendon in practice and is already out for the season. On the positive side, the Giants defense should be getting Osi Umenyiora back.

So, we adjusted the Giants’ offense down 5% and defense up 2%. Despite having the seventh hardest schedule in 2009 and basically a negative adjustment to their 2008 performance, the computer still yielded a 13-3 division winning projection. In a real strange twist, even with further offensive and defensive performances, we still got 13-3 as a best case, so we are out on a limb forecasting the Giants to achieve what we think will be the best case scenario. There is plenty of downside - down to 8-8 or so.

Eagles:
Projected Record 11-5
2008 Offense Rank: 8th                Defense Rank: 3rd
Offense Adjustment: 2%           Defense Adjustment: -10%
Best Case Record: 13-3                Worst Case Record: 8-8
Quick Observations: The only thing standing in the way of the 2009 Eagles appears to be division foe - the Giants. As we made our adjustments, many of the early runs had the Eagles-not the Giants - in the Super Bowl. The Eagles’ defensive coordinator from last season, Jim Johnson, lost his battle with cancer earlier this year.

Sean McDermott has replaced Johnson, but we are concerned that the McDermott defense may not be as effective as Johnson’s defense. The Eagles also have already lost last year’s starting middle linebacker, Stewart Bradley, for the season with a knee injury. Last year, the Eagles were the third best defense in the league, but we have concerns that they won’t be able to maintain that level, so we adjusted their defensive numbers down 10%.

The Eagles have worked to improve their offense by drafting wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and running back LeSean McCoy. They also added Michael Vick, but we had already committed to a 2% positive adjustment to their offense before the signing of Vick, so we are sticking with that.

The Eagles have an easier schedule this year than last year. They have the 19th toughest schedule which isn’t that bad. With our adjustments, the computer figured the Eagles would come in second in the division with an 11-5 record. They have the same best case and worst case as the Giants, 13-3 and 8-8.

Cowboys:
Projected Record 8-8
2008 Offense Rank: 16th                 Defense Rank: 12th
Offense Adjustment: -1%           Defense Adjustment: 0%
Best Case Record: 12-4                Worst Case Record: 5-11
Quick Observations: We considered the Cowboys’ 2008 PossessionPoints performance somewhat middle-of-the-road. They were the 16th best offense and 12th best defense. In the off-season, they got rid of wide receiver Terrell Owens. Some people think this will be a positive; others are not so sure.

Terrell Owens is a top wide receiver and even if a play doesn’t go his way, he does have an impact because he will draw the attention of the defense. So, we made as minor a negative adjustment as we could with his loss- just 1%. We left their defense unchanged.

The Cowboys have the ninth hardest 2009 schedule by our calculation and that combined with their middle-of-the-road numbers yielded a mediocre 8-8 result. This year will be a good test for head coach Wade Phillips. We give him credit if he can get the team over .500, but we will be looking for him to be searching for a new gig if they fall much below .500.

Don’t panic yet, Cowboy fans, their best case is pretty close to the Giants’ and Eagles’ best case, and if they achieve that best case, you know some of those wins will come at the Giants’ and Eagles’ expense. So, we wouldn’t count the Cowboys out of winning this division.

Redskins:
Projected Record 3-13
2008 Offense Rank: 27th                 Defense Rank: 7th
Offense Adjustment: 0%           Defense Adjustment: 0%
Best Case Record: 10-6                Worst Case Record: 2-14
Quick Observations: The Redskins are hurt most by being in one of the toughest divisions in football. We know they added one of the best defensive linemen in Albert Haynesworth, but the Redskins have had a long history of signing big name players only to have them fall off considerably once they put on a Redskin jersey and cash that big check. We have no explanation for this, so we won’t even try to make sense of it.

The Redskins’ offense was their biggest problem last year as they were 27th in the league by our PossessionPoints stat. Their defense was actually quite good at seventh best in the league. Looking at their division and recognizing that not every team can improve, we made a modest 5% downward adjustment to their offense and defense.

Hopefully, for Redskins’ fans this is not the direction they go because this produced a poor 3-13 result. The good news is this was pretty close to what we see as the worst case scenario of 2-14. The best case of 10-6 would most likely land them a wild card.

Overall for the NFC East we have this division with the same overall record as the NFC North and AFC South 35-29. These three divisions tie for the best record in our projections.

NFC North:
Packers:
Projected Record 11-5
2008 Offense Rank: 3rd                Defense Rank: 16th
Offense Adjustment: 0%           Defense Adjustment: 0%
Best Case Record: 15-1                Worst Case Record: 6-10
Quick Observations: We really are excited to see how the NFC North shapes up this year. Aaron Rodgers established himself quickly last season, and Packers’ fans can expect more Rodgers to Jennings and Driver touchdowns this year. We thought about adjusting the Packers’ offense up but opted to just leave it unchanged.

Their defense in 2008 was 16th in the league, and they addressed the defense with two first-round draft picks: defensive tackle B.J. Raji (who was a contract holdout early in the preseason), and linebacker Clay Matthews who was taken with the 26th overall pick. We considered improving the Packers’ defense but opted to leave it unchanged as well.

The Packers’ schedule is not much harder than the Vikings. By our calculation, they have the third easiest schedule in the league. If our projections work out and the Packers play basically as well as they did last season, they should finish 11-5 and tied with the Vikings for the division title. If they lose that tie breaker, they would earn a wild card playoff berth. The best case that we got by making modest improvements in their offense and defense was an amazing 15-1.

Vikings:
Projected Record 11-5
2008 Offense Rank: 9th                 Defense Rank: 4th
Offense Adjustment: -5%           Defense Adjustment: 0%
Best Case Record: 14-2                Worst Case Record: 8-8
Quick Observations: This division looks to be tight battle between three teams. Sorry, Lions’ fans, but we do not think your team is quite up to the Vikings, Packers and Bears. At the time this was done we thought Brett Favre was staying retired so we were concerned about questions at quarterback.

If we were to redo things today we would probably at least leave the Vikings offense unchanged. In the end we aren’t sure if the Vikings are getting the Favre of 2007 or 2008,.

There was a big difference between the two years, so we will live with our -5%. However, the Vikings of 2008 were a very good PossessionPoints team both offensively where they ranked ninth, but they were especially good defensively where they ranked fourth in the league.

The Vikings’ defense should be a strength again this year, but given how good they were last year we could not see a compelling case to make a positive adjustment, and we left their very good defensive number unchanged. While their offense sports perhaps the best running back in the league in Adrian Peterson, the questions at quarterback caused us to adjust their offense down 5%.

According to our stat and based on last year’s performances, the Vikings have the second easiest schedule in the league, so even with the negative adjustments, the computer generated 11 wins and a tie for the division title with the Packers.

Bears:
Projected Record 10-6
2008 Offense Rank: 26th                 Defense Rank: 19th
Offense Adjustment: 25%           Defense Adjustment: 20%
Best Case Record: 11-5                Worst Case Record: 3-13
Quick Observations: The Bears were not a particularly good PossessionPoints team last year as they had the 19th ranked defense and the 26th ranked offense. They addressed their offensive weakness in a big way when Jay Cutler forced the Broncos to trade him.

We think Cutler should be a major upgrade, and we adjusted the Bears’ offense 25% to account for it. With the Bears’ offense better able to sustain drives and score, we think it could actually help their defensive PossessionPoints performance also. So, we improved their defense by 20%.

Our analysis of their 2009 schedule has it ranked as the 13th easiest, not as easy as the Vikings or Packers, but still in the easy half. What was the end result of all this number crunching for the Bears? A 10-6 record that has them just missing a wild card playoff berth. But do not fear Bears’ fans, this division and the projected wild cards are so close that one game either way will make a big difference.

Lions:
Projected Record 3-13
2008 Offense Rank: 28th                 Defense Rank: 32nd
Offense Adjustment: 25%           Defense Adjustment: 25%
Best Case Record: 7-9                Worst Case Record: 0-16
Quick Observations: Rookie coach (Jim Schwartz) and rookie QB (Matt Stafford) should be a recipe for a playoff berth, right? Well as much as we would love to see history repeat for the Lions as it did for the Ravens and Falcons, we just do not see a playoff season just yet.

The Lions have one of the best receivers in the league in Calvin Johnson, and they have the number one overall selection in the 2009 draft in Matt Stafford to throw to him. They addressed improving the offense further in the draft by selecting tight end Brandon Pettigrew and wide receiver Derrick Williams. These weapons are an addition to a running back, Kevin Smith, who had a surprisingly good year last year. So, we went ahead and improved the Lions’ 2008, 28th ranked offense by 25%.

The only thing worse than the Lions’ offense in 2008 was their defense which was ranked 32nd in the league by PossessionPoints figures. It is no wonder they were 0-16. If the Lions’ offense improves drastically, it will keep their defense off the field and fresh.

That scenario allows us to bump their defensive number also by 25%. Even with the 16th easiest schedule, these adjustments still produced just three wins. The best case still fell short of .500 and given that we do these projections based on modifying last year’s numbers, well the downside is the same as last year 0-16. However, we really don’t expect a repeat of that.

Overall for the NFC North, we spilled the beans when we did the recap of the NFC East: they tie for the best division record with the NFC East and AFC South 35-29.

NFC South:
Saints:
Projected Record 12-4
2008 Offense Rank: 5th                 Defense Rank: 25th
Offense Adjustment: 5%           Defense Adjustment: 10%
Best Case Record: 14-2                Worst Case Record: 6-10
Quick Observations: The Saints were a good PossessionPoints offense and a bad PossessionPoints defense last year. They were fifth in the league in offense and 25th in the league in defense. Their defense actually backslid by 10% from their 2007 level. The Saints tried to address their defensive deficiencies by drafting corner-back Malcolm Jenkins and safety Chip Vaughn.

They also signed free agents corner-back Jabari Greer and safety Darren Sharper. We look for the already very good offense to get a boost from the return of a healthy Reggie Bush and Jeremy Shockey. With these things in mind, we bumped their offense slightly by 5% and their defense a bit more by 10%. That was good enough for the computer to give the Saints a 12-4 record and win the NFC South.

Their best case would put them on top of the NFC with a 14-2 record while they do have substantial downside, down to 6-10. This downside could be attributed to the fact that this division has the toughest overall schedules and the Saints schedule we rank as the 11th hardest in the league.

Saints:
Projected Record 10-6
2008 Offense Rank: 17th                 Defense Rank: 20th
Offense Adjustment: 20%           Defense Adjustment: 20%
Best Case Record: 12-4                Worst Case Record: 4-12
Quick Observations: The Panthers won the division and had a first-round bye last season, but when they lost their first playoff game to the Cardinals at home, we weren’t terribly surprised. The Panthers were a 10-point favorite but PossessionPoints told our members on our match up page that: “Two Green indicators go with the Cardinals while one Yellow lines up with the Panthers.

So, our straight up pick is the Cardinals.” The reason PossessionPoints went that way, is that it appeared to us that the Panthers’ 12-4 record was a bit of an overachievement as they had the 17th ranked offense and 21st ranked defense by the PossessionPoints stat.

Coaching and confidence go a long way in the NFL, and while last season we thought the Panthers overachieved, we are sure that neither the team nor their fans agreed. Success builds on itself and a 12-4 season with a first-round playoff bye will be viewed as a solid success and a foundation to be built upon.

So, while we made adjustments to most teams based on football moves, with the Panthers we are making adjustments based on emotional factors such as confidence and determination. We adjusted their offensive and defensive numbers up by 20%, and the result was a 10-6 projection that just misses a wild card playoff berth.

If you look over our adjustments for other teams, you will agree that 20% is pretty generous and it takes further adjustments up to 25% to get to the best case 12-4 record. That would give the Panthers the division but the downside risk is substantial for the Panthers as our analysis gives them the hardest schedule in 2009.

Falcons:
Projected Record 8-8
2008 Offense Rank: 12th                 Defense Rank: 14th
Offense Adjustment: 5%           Defense Adjustment: 5%
Best Case Record: 11-5                Worst Case Record: 5-11
Quick Observations: Last season, Atlanta was the surprise team, but this year they will not sneak up on anybody. Teams are well aware of the key offensive weapons from last year which include running back Michael Turner, quarterback Matt Ryan and wide receiver Roddy White. Then, in the off-season, they added perhaps one of the best tight ends to ever play in the NFL, Tony Gonzalez.

While we are sure that Matt Ryan and offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey are drooling at the thought of all the options this offense now has, the defensive coordinators around the league now have a season full of film to dissect tendencies.

So, we struggled with how to adjust the Falcons’ 2008 numbers for 2009. The Falcons had the 12th best offense and 14th best defense in the league by our numbers last season. We finally decided to go with minor 5% adjustments to their offense and defense.

Like the Panthers, the Falcons have a very tough schedule in 2009 – the fifth toughest by our calculation. The adjustments resulted in a middle of the road 8-8 record, and no return to the playoffs for second-year coach Mike Smith. Like the NFC North we could see any of the three top teams in our list winning the division. The Falcons upside even with their tough schedule is 11-5.

Bucs:
Projected Record 3-13
2008 Offense Rank: 20th                 Defense Rank: 8th
Offense Adjustment: -5%           Defense Adjustment: -5%
Best Case Record: 10-6                Worst Case Record: 1-15
Quick Observations: “How can this be?” Buccaneers’ Fans will surely wonder how can a team that was one win away from a playoff spot be given a projection of just three wins. The Bucs were a below average PossessionPoints offense in 2008 ranking 20th while they were an above average defense ranking eighth.

Their defense was better early in the year before Monty Kiffin decided to join his son’s coaching staff at Tennessee. After missing the playoffs, the Bucs also had a change at head coach, which historically, we mark as a negative. While we will still view the coach change as a negative, we are wary of this adjustment in light of how well the Dolphins, Falcons and Ravens of 2008 performed with new head coaches.

The Bucs by our calculation have the third toughest schedule in the league this year, and that coupled with the -5% adjustments to their offense and defense drove the computer to the poor 3-13 result.

They do have a surprisingly good best case for a team with 3-13 forecast: 10-6 could be wild-card playoff worthy this year.

Overall for the NFC South we have this division slightly over .500 at 33-31.

NFC West:
Cardinals:
Projected Record 10-6
2008 Offense Rank: 7th                 Defense Rank: 23rd
Offense Adjustment: 5%             Defense Adjustment: 5%
Best Case Record: 14-2                Worst Case Record: 6-10
Quick Observations: Well, Cardinals’ fans, last year we said: “this could be your year!” This year, we favor your team to repeat as champions of the NFC West. Confidence and continuity are the factors that cause us to adjust your offensive and defensive numbers up 5%. There is no question who the number one quarterback will be this year and that will help the offense gel better.

The Cardinals were the seventh best offense in 2008 and 23rd ranked defense by the PossessionPoints stat. They added Ohio State running back Chris Wells with their first-round selection. If Wells can draw some defensive attention away from the passing game, then the Cardinals could improve considerably over last year’s performance.

Even with the modest 5% adjustments we made, the computer gave the Cardinals a 10-6 projection and a win of the division by two games over their next closest competitor. This, we are sure has something to do with the fact that by our calculations, the Cardinals have the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2009.

With this schedule the upside is substantial if they do improve their performance by more than the minor 5% we gave them: 14-2 could be seen on the upside.

49ers:
Projected Record 8-8
2008 Offense Rank: 21st                  Defense Rank: 24th
Offense Adjustment: 5%             Defense Adjustment: 25%
Best Case Record: 10-6                Worst Case Record: 4-12
Quick Observations: Last year, we gave San Francisco “little chance” at the playoffs. They changed coaches in mid-season to Mike Singletary, and their team performance as measured by PossessionPoints made a significant turn up.

So, we decided, rather than make alterations to their season numbers that had them ranked as the 21st offense and 24th defense, we would instead first adjust them to the Singletary coached values. The change to Singletary was seen more in the defense than the offense, so we adjusted their defensive numbers up 25% and their offensive numbers up just 5%.

The result for the 49ers, who will be playing the seventh easiest schedule by our calculations, is an 8-8 record. This would be good for a second-place finish in the division--one game in front of the Seahawks. But it is pretty close to the best case of 10 wins given that we already made substantial upside adjustments to their performance.

Seahawks:
Projected Record 7-9
2008 Offense Rank: 25th                   Defense Rank: 31st
Offense Adjustment: 25%             Defense Adjustment: 25%
Best Case Record: 10-6                Worst Case Record: 1-15
Quick Observations: The Mike Holmgren era has ended and the Jim Mora era has started. This isn’t Jim Mora’s first stint as a head coach, so we won’t count him as a rookie. The former Falcons’ coach takes over a team that had become accustomed to winning the NFC West prior to last year’s poor showing which PossessionPoints.com warned about in last year’s preseason issue. By PossessionPoints measure, the Seahawks had the 25th ranked offense and the 31st ranked defense. So, Jim Mora really has his work cut out for him.

Injuries were a factor in last season’s dismal performance which was an 11% retraction on offense and an astounding 62% falloff in defensive performance from their 2007 levels. We are going to give them the benefit of the doubt that injuries won’t be as significant this season, and we upped both their offensive and defensive performances by 25%. That only got them to a mediocre 7-9 record.

Rams:
Projected Record 4-12
2008 Offense Rank: 29th                   Defense Rank: 28th
Offense Adjustment: 25%             Defense Adjustment: 25%
Best Case Record: 9-7                Worst Case Record: 0-16
Quick Observations: Rookie coach and seasoned pro at QB: Why does this sound like a better combination than rookie coach and rookie QB? Steve Spagnuolo, who had been the Giants defensive coordinator the last few years, will lead the Rams this year. At QB, the Rams should have Marc Bulger, the nine-year veteran, who has seen both success and failure in his time in the NFL. However, the Rams have a long way to go. In 2008, they had the 29th ranked offense and the 28th ranked PossessionPoints defense.

The Rams have a top-flight running back in Steven Jackson, and they have been building their offensive and defensive lines in the draft the last two seasons. This year, they took offensive tackle Jason Smith with the second overall pick while in 2008 they took defensive end Chris Long. The Rams keep adding top talent, and at some point you would expect things to click. Will it be this year under Spagnuolo?

Maybe, but our calculations make it doubtful. We upped their offensive and defensive numbers from 2008 by 25%. When those adjustments were played against their 2009 schedule, the result was a disappointing 4-12. While still better than last season’s 2-14 record, it is not what anyone would consider good, and the Rams would still be last in their relatively weak division.

Overall for the NFC West we have this division as one of the two divisions with a sub .500 record at 29-35.

Well that’s it, every time we look this over, we can question ourselves about one team or another. It took a long time to come up with the numbers we finalized on, and no doubt there will be teams that skew to our best or worst case rather than the expected case.

As your reward for getting to the end of this article, we are offering all readers of this article free access to our full preseason preview which we have for sale on our site. Just follow this link and you can get at the full 35 page 2009 Preseason Preview where you can see your team’s schedule and game-for-game forecasts.

2009 NFL Preseason Performance Rankings

Donna Cavanagh — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 20:49:54 -0400

While we like to ignore most preseason records, we do take a look to see how teams measure up in our “relative performance measure” (RPM). However, similar to preseason records, YOU CAN’T READ TOO MUCH INTO THESE NUMBERS. The reason we do present them is to highlight any warning signs that teams may be exhibiting.

While these RPMs are interesting to look at and speculate about, you have to remember two things: Only three preseason games are used in generating these numbers and preseason games are not coached or even played like regular season games.

Since the RPMs are an average of just three games, a single game like the Saints thumping of the Raiders, can skew things for these two teams. The Saints vaulted to the top while the Raiders sunk to the bottom. The Saints’ RPM number of 90 is a better game average than the 2007 Patriots who had an RPM of 83 and went 16-0. At PossessionPoints.com, we admit that we like the Saints a lot this season, but not that much.

It is nice to see that the preseason Saints are not doing anything to make us back off our preseason preview prediction which says that New Orleans will be a playoff team this year. But note that the Falcons are right there on the Saints’ heels in the preseason, so that could be a very interesting division to watch.

Right behind the Saints and Falcons are last year’s two Super Bowl teams: the Steelers and Cardinals. The Steelers had a full season RPM last year of just over 40, and their preseason number is very similar.

The Giants, Eagles, Texans and Packers are all teams we think could and should make the playoffs, and their RPMs are right around 0. It is not impossible for teams to get into the playoffs with an RPM that low, but when it happens typically a team loses their first playoff game. (See the article we wrote in January, Playoff Upsets – What Upsets?)

An RPM in the low, single-digit, negative numbers to an RPM that goes positive is not something to get too concerned about in the preseason from our point of view.

The opposite is true too. You’ve probably heard it a hundred times this preseason: The Lions went 4-0 last year in the and then went 0-16 in the regular season. Preseason numbers would have been misleading at best putting the Lions near the top of the chart..

So, are we concerned about the 1-2 Chargers who have a terrible -55 RPM? Yes, we are a little, To us, this might be a warning flag. We would rather see the Chargers’ RPM up there with the 0-3 Broncos. But the Chargers have started slowly in the regular season in the past and still managed to make the playoffs. Will they repeat that trend this season? Perhaps, they are getting their slow start out of the way in the preseason, so they can get into a winning frame of mind quickly in the regular season.

We hope that is the case, as they might not be able to afford being upset by the Raiders in their opener this year since they have the Ravens and Steelers as two of their next three opponents. We would hate to see them go into their early bye week with a 1-3 record especially since our preseason preview was expecting them to be 3-1 at that point.

Ain’t the preseason fun?

If you want more reading on the relavance of the RPM then perhaps in addition to the article we linked to above (Playoff Upsets – What Upsets?), these two articles we wrote before last season's Super Bowl might be informative.

In The NFL Performance Means Everything

A Few More Reasons To Like The Steelers

2009 Fantasy Football Player Lists With A Twist

Donna Cavanagh — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 19:27:51 -0400

It is late preseason, and if you can’t find a list ranking players for Fantasy Football then you aren’t looking too hard.

Fantasy lists vary from site to site, but PossessionPoints.com likes to look at things a bit differently. Our player lists contain an “expected value” next to the player’s name. This expected value helps Fantasy participants gauge if there really is a difference between the No. 4 and No. 5 players on the list. Of course, this “expected value” is based on one particular scoring system, which we list at the end of this article for your reference. Depending on the Fantasy game you may play, this expected value may vary some, but it still gives you a relative difference between players.

When you look at most lists, look to see if they are they giving you a list for the best player next week or for the remainder of the season? Can you even tell? Fantasy can get complicated, so you have to know what your list is telling you.

Over the last three years, we have found that many Fantasy players have the most fun when they can actively manage their team. To accommodate this management need, we provide three lists for each player position: an Expected Value for Next Week, an Expected Value for the Next Four Weeks, and an Expected Value for the Remainder of the Season. We give you a sneak peak at these lists later in this article.

If you are someone who wants to set your roster and only make changes when injury or something like that forces you to, then look at the Remainder of the Season charts. You’ll have your up and down weeks, but in the end, we think the top players on this list will serve you best.

However, if you are like most Fantasy players, you will want to know what to expect from your players this week and who on your roster to sit or play. For this type of game involvement, you need the Expected Value for Next Week chart.

Four weeks into the NFL season completes a quarter of the season, so even if you only adjust your roster a few times a season, you may want to look at the next quarter of the season to see where your players stand. That’s why we have the Next Four Weeks list.

See for yourself below how the lists can vary by looking at just the top five in each player position.

Quarterbacks:

It would seem that it is hard to go wrong with any of the top five QBs for the season: Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Romo and Rivers. Tony Romo is one that we struggled with as far as any offseason adjustments. He lost a top target, Terrell Owens, but perhaps team chemistry will make the difference here.

If we had him on our fantasy team, we would keep a close eye on how he performs the first few weeks. We expect he will be with the leaders the first week, and the first 4 weeks. However, if he underperforms early, perhaps you might want to see if you can upgrade as there is a pretty good chance he will fall short of being a top five for the full season.

Running backs:

Let’s see: Adrian Peterson, Adrian Peterson and Adrian Peterson. Anybody surprised by that? Of course not, but some of the other players on our lists surprised us a bit.

DeAngelo Williams isn’t on the “Next 4 weeks” chart, mostly because he has a bye in week Four. This shows what every Fantasy player knows, and that is you have to manage carefully for bye weeks. Our full lists also highlight in what week players have byes. It looks to us that Matt Forte, Clinton Portis and Maurice Jones-Drew may have a better first quarter of the season than they will the remainder of the season.

Wide Receivers:

Larry Fitzgerald is tops on our Expected Value for the Remainder of the Season chart, but his bye in week four keeps him off the “Next 4 Weeks” chart. Greg Jennings is fifth on the season chart, and we really think the Rodgers to Jennings combination could be as potent as the Brady to Moss combination.

Calvin Johnson will be a top target for whoever is the starting QB in Detroit. However, the biggest variable with Calvin Johnson will be the Lions themselves. If, as a team, they improve over last year, then he will be a top, if not the top Fantasy receiver this year. For Calvin Johnson to become the top receiver in week one depends on whether or not the Saints have improved on defense. If in your draft you have the choice between Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, nobody would be the least bit surprised by a selection of Fitzgerald.

Tight Ends:

Similar to the other lists, nobody will be surprised to see Witten, Gates, Clark or Gonzales on the top of these lists. Where the lists get interesting is seeing Shockey at number two for the first week. We guess we he can attribute this to the fact that the Saints open up against the Lions in Week one.

Defense / Special Teams:

Defenses that can generate turnovers and score are featured on these lists. The Ravens, Steelers and Titans all fit that description. We are a little worried that we may not have made enough adjustments to the Eagles’ defense from last season, and that they won’t live up to our expected values. They have a new defensive coordinator and have already lost their starting middle linebacker for the season. However, Asante Samuel appears primed to have a big season in the turnover department. If he can convert a few of his picks into touchdowns, the Eagles should have a top five defense.

Kickers:

Kickers are typically taken in the later rounds of the draft, and with good reason. If you get one of the good ones, there isn’t that much difference over the course of the season. So draft a top kicker, and forget about him, as long as he doesn’t get hurt, he should contribute.

For completeness, the scoring system on which our Expected Values are based is:
Touchdown is 6 points - passing, receiving, rushing or Kick return (a passing TD the QB and receiver get 6pts. Kick return points go to player not DEF/special teams)
Passing: 0.03 points per yard passing, -3 points for an INT
Rushing: 0.1 points per yard
Other: -2 points for a fumble, 2 points for 2 Point conversion.
Kicking: 3 points for FG, +1 if over 39 yards, +0.1 point each yard over 40, 1 point for PAT, -1 point missed PAT or FG under 30 yards
Defense/special team: 6 points TD (not kickoff or punt returns), 2 points safety, 2 points INT, 2 points fumble recovery, 2 points blocked kick (FG, punt, PAT), 1 point QB sack, 12 points if No Points are allowed, -0.5 points for each point allowed.

NFL Preseason In Full Swing: Yea, But…

Donna Cavanagh — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 09:09:40 -0400

Preseason in the NFL started last week, and the games in weeks 2 and 3 are typically better than the games in week 1. Optimism abounds in just about every NFL city, and discussions pop up in offices, bars and barbershops around the country. Many of these discussions result in volleys of phrases that start ‘Yea, but’.

In the spirit of preseason fun, we, at PossessionPoints.com, decided to take a break from our number crunching and toss out some of the discussions we’ve heard:

Did you hear the Eagles signed Mike Vick?

- Yea, but he won’t be able to play at least the first quarter of the year?

o Yea, but when they do put him in, think about the wildcat offense they will be able to run.

§ Yea, but the wildcat offense won’t be a surprise to anyone. Everyone in the league is practicing a defense for it.

Did you see the Raiders beat up the Cowboys?

- Yea, but that wasn’t nearly as exciting as trying to figure out who on Oakland’s coaching staff is beating up whom.

o Yea, but football is a violent sport, and would we expect anything different or less dramatic from Al Davis and the Raiders’ organization?

§ Yea, but this Commissioner isn’t letting anything slide. Who knows what he is going to do here? Does Plaxico need a roommate?

Did you see the Lions win last week?

- Yea, but it is preseason.

o Yea, but it gets their mind off their 0-16 season last year

§ Yea, but they went 4-0 in the preseason last year, where did that get them?

· Yea, but they have that Miracle Man, Matt Stafford. He could be better than Flacco or Ryan.

o Yea, but it’s the Lions, When was the last time they were really good even when they had good players?

That little volley that took place about the Lions going 4-0 in preseason and then 0-16 in the regular season got us to wondering about the significance of preseason wins and losses. So, we also took a look at some teams from last year I know that we said we were not going to numbers crunch. Yea, but we lied.

Believe it or not, the Lions were the only 4-0 team last preseason, but there were two 0-4 teams. The Patriots and Browns were both 0-4 in 2008. In the regular season, Tom Brady got hurt in the first game, and they still went 11-5. The Browns went 4-12.

Until we looked at the Browns, we were thinking maybe it was better if a team lost rather than won its preseason games. The Browns set us right on that thought.

What about last year’s Super Bowl teams? Well the Steelers went 3-1 while the Cardinals were 2-2. Nothing conclusive there. Their championship game opponents? The Ravens were 1-3 and the Eagles were 2-2.

Here we go again, Yea, but, except for the Steelers, all those teams had fewer than 12 wins in the regular season. They played some of their best football in the postseason.

How about the teams that won 12 or more in the regular season? Of course, there were the 13-3 Titans who were 3-1 in the preseason. The 12-4 Panthers and 12-4 Giants who both went 2-2 in the preseason. While the 12-4 Colts were 1-3 (1-4 if you count the Hall of Fame game), nothing of significance showed up one way or another.

To paraphrase former Cardinals coach, Dennis Green: The preseason is what we thought it is. It is a tryout for the regular season.

Coaches tryout players and plays to see what works and what doesn’t work. They don’t care about winning, and they take risks like going for a two-point conversion after a touchdown late in the 4th quarter when their team is down by one. They win or lose on that one play.

In the regular season 99.9% of the time, a coach would opt to kick the extra point and go for overtime.

So, there are two and a half more weeks of tryouts, and like the coaches, we won’t pay any attention to wins or losses. We will pay much closer attention to how individual players perform, and how the teams performed in terms of execution.

We also know fans are looking to the preseason to see a glimpse into how their favorite team will perform. To that we say, “Yea, it may be football, but guess what? It isn’t real football yet”.

Could Peyton Manning Lock Up His Trip To Canton This Year?

Donna Cavanagh — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 13:26:02 -0400

Many people already consider Peyton Manning a surefire Hall Of Famer, and quite frankly we won’t argue with them. But we know there are still some doubters. This year, Peyton has to take on a larger leadership role than ever before in his pro career. His team is going through a major transition with a new head coach, Jim Caldwell, and a new offensive coordinator, Clyde Christensen.

No matter how much successors strive for consistency with their predecessors, they are still different people with different ways of doing things. No two people, even if they have worked together in the past, perform exactly alike. How these differences translate to the team will, in our view, dictate how the Colts season goes.

If football were a normal business, these changes would be viewed as “safe” since you promoted the assistant head coach / QB coach to head coach and the wide receivers coach to offensive coordinator. Both coaches have been with the Colts for eight years. On the surface, this could look like a very smooth natural progression with little effect on the Colts.

However, let’s face facts. NFL football is anything but a “normal business.” Team composition changes from year-to-year, and the fine line that separates good and bad moves around the league each year as well. Teams go from the cellar to the penthouse and vice versa in the blink of an eye.

The Colts could be in for a very difficult season if the Titans can maintain their stride from last season, the Texans continue to improve, and the Jaguars return to their 2007 form.

If the Colts win their division and “make some hay” in the playoffs, we have to believe it will be in large part due to the leadership and playing ability of their quarterback. If that doesn’t push any doubter over the edge as far as Manning’s Hall Of Fame credentials, we don’t know what would.

When we look at the Colts of last season, we see two different teams. Early in the year, Manning struggled to get over his offseason knee surgery. Look at the chart below:

In the last nine games, the Colts’ offense was 92% better by our PossessionPoints.com measure than it was in the first seven games.

Was Peyton Manning’s health the only thing that caused this turn around? It is hard to say because the defense performed much the same in the last nine games as it did in the first seven. In fact, there was only a negligible one percent difference by our measure.

So, perhaps we are putting too much on the shoulders of Manning, but we will be watching the Colts this year with great interest. As we said, conditions appear right for the Colts to have a mediocre season, but in our view, the wildcard is Peyton Manning.

Looking Forward To a Full Season of Mike Singletary

Donna Cavanagh — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 16:41:08 -0400

As pre-season camps get ready to get underway around the NFL, we find it is time to get rolling on our Pre-Season Preview issue. In this issue, PossessionPoints.com examines all teams’ off-season moves and upcoming schedules. We use this information to make forecasting adjustments for the upcoming season.

Coaching continuity is one key factor we use for forecasting adjustments. For last season’s winning teams, we place greater weight on coaching continuity than we do on last season’s losing teams.

This season, we find ourselves more concerned about the Indianapolis Colts than we do about the St. Louis Rams. Although the Colts have replaced Tony Dungy with his appointed heir, Jim Caldwell is still an unknown commodity in the head coach position.

The question mark around the Colts' new coach makes it difficult to automatically keep the team at a high level of performance; it prompts us to give a neutral to negative adjustment to the Colts in our assessment.

Even though Caldwell has been with the Colts’ organization, it’s hard to quantify his leadership abilities, chemistry with players, and game-day decision in this new position until he performs as a head coach.

Conversely, the Rams hired Steve Spagnuolo, who comes in with a good reputation that was built as the Giants defensive coordinator. Since the Rams have struggled in the past seasons, their performance in the upcoming season will most likely improve. In our calculations, a new coach in this situation becomes a neutral to positive adjustment.

The 49ers are an interesting case. They have Mike Singletary, who took over after the seventh game last season.

When we look to forecast the 49ers’ upcoming season, we need to decide if we want to base our calculations on their full season 2008 data or just the nine games Singletary coached, in which San Francisco went 5-4.

The chart below shows the 49ers’ season split into the pre-Singletary and post-Singletary periods:

Their overall PossessionPoints performance improved 109 percent under Singletary: that overall improvement was driven by the 40 percent improvement in their defense.

The other consideration that comes into play is the team’s '09 schedule. Based on last year’s “overall” PossessionPoints numbers, the 49ers’ '09 schedule is the 26th hardest or 7th easiest, depending on how you want to look at it.

We realize that when a coach takes over in the middle of the season, there is a limit of what he can change. For Mike Singletary to have the effect he had makes for some potentially high expectations next season.

Let’s face facts: the 49ers are not in the toughest division in football. If we get to December and they are contending with the Cardinals and Seahawks for the division title, we would not be surprised.

What Is the Toughest Division in the NFL For 2009?

Donna Cavanagh — Sun, 31 May 2009 11:29:57 -0400

As each season looms, the debate over which division is the toughest intensifies. We, at PossessionPoints.com, are no strangers to this debate and love to participate in it as well. Here is our preliminary overview of the NFL divisions. We hope it might help you decide who you think should be known as the “Toughest Division in the NFL”.

This year, we feel there are surprises on the horizon as the parity between NFL teams is on the increase. For many people, parity is a bad word meaning mediocrity, but we view it as a positive. We believe fans will see more teams playing up or raising the bar in performance which could lead to some interesting game results down the road.

As of now, we still look at the NFC East and the AFC South as the division strongholds. Most of the NFL experts and analysts seem to view the Giants and the Eagles as formidable threats on both offense and defense, and many of these experts have one of these teams taking the division and possibly going to the Super Bowl.

While we do not argue this point, we do not want to count out Dallas or the Redskins. Both teams had their struggles last year, but both teams managed a .500 or better season. An injection of talent and the elimination of some team distractions may be enough to hoist one or both of these teams into the playoff arena. With so much potential, this division definitely rates a vote as the toughest in the NFL.

In recent years, the AFC South has also become a force to be reckoned with. It would not surprise us in the least to see the Colts, Titans or even the Texans make their way into the heart of the playoffs. We know that the Colts have adjustments to handle with the retirement of Tony Dungy and offensive coordinator Tom Moore. However, their new head coach, Jim Caldwell, who has worked for Dungy since his Tampa Baydays, was the first choice of Dungy, and the Colts are trying to bring back Moore as a consultant for the team. So, the adjustments may not be too difficult to handle.

As for the Jaguars, we look at them as a team that has to prove a bit more before we list them in the same class as their division opponents. However, they take nothing away from the threat that this division holds as they were a playoff team in 2007. If the Jaguars can forget 2008 and return to their 2007 form, the AFC South could well be the toughest division.

There is a sound argument to also view NFC South, the AFC East and the NFC South as contenders for the toughest division crown. With the Panthers, Falcons and Saints in the NFC South, this division may be ready to let loose this season as they did last season. All the teams in the NFC South also had a .500 or better record in 2008.

Now, Bucs’ fans, do not get upset, but we think it is Tampa Bay that may have a tough time bringing this division home. The Bucs could find themselves playing a very long season this year.

The AFC East gets a boost from the return of Tom Brady to the Patriots’ roster. If the reports about his strength and agility are true, there is no doubt that the Patriots can be viewed as potential Super Bowl contenders. We also assume that the Dolphins have the ability to repeat or beat their 2008 performance. Only the Bills at 7-9 were below .500 in this division last season.

If the Patriots’ return to their 2007 dominance, they can make it more difficult for other teams in their division to get to a .500 or better season.

The Jets may join the club of teams that start rookie QBs with a new head coach. It worked for Atlanta and Baltimore last season, so why not this season? With so much potential waiting to be unleashed from these AFC East teams, this division might turn out to be the toughest of all.

We have to admit that we think the toughness of the NFC North is compromised by the presence of the Detroit Lions. Yes, they have the No. 1 draft pick and yes, their future looks brighter. But it is a long road from 0-16 to the playoffs, no matter what you are paying your new quarterback. We do look for the Lions to improve, but we are doubtful of their ability to make the playoffs.

With that said, the NFC North has some of the toughest competition around with the Bears, Packers and Vikings who are all capable of bringing home a division championship. The most likely suspects for the division title for us at this point are the Vikings or Bears who will no doubt benefit from the addition of Jay Cutler.

So, as of now, we see that five out of the eight divisions have a clear shot at winning the “toughest” moniker, but let’s see how the remaining three divisions – the AFC North and the AFC and NFC West fare.

We know that the AFC North includes not only the Super Bowl Champs, the Pittsburgh Steelers, but their strongest opponent, the Baltimore Ravens as well. Both of these teams will most likely be playoff bound again. However, when your division includes the Bengals and Browns who both have a ton to prove this season, it’s hard to seriously see this division as the toughest.

The AFC West has many questions to answer this year. We do believe that this division is the Chargers to lose. We do see improvements with the Raiders and Chiefs but these improvements are probably not enough to make this division the toughest in the NFL.

The Broncos are now without Jay Cutler, and they also have a new head coach in Josh McDaniels. It is hard to tell if a team will gel with a new quarterback and a new head coach. So, while we see a great deal of potential in this division, we think it is premature at best to say that this division is the toughest.

Last but not least is the NFC West. Okay, the Super Bowl runner-up, the Arizona Cardinals are in this division, but we have to consider the Seahawks, who were perennial champs prior to last season, as a team to consider for the division crown. We said before last season started, that the coaching situation would undo the Seahawks’ season and that proved true. However, with Jim Mora on the sidelines for all of last year, the transition for this team should be complete. We are looking for the Seahawks of old to make a return.

In the NFC West, we also are anxious to see how the 49ers perform in their first complete season with Mike Singletary. Will his high-motivation coaching tactics continue the success he saw with the 49ers last season? Another team that could be on the upswing are the Rams. If their new head coach Steve Spagnola can work the wonders with the entire Rams team as he did with the Giants’ defense, who knows what lies ahead?

Well, that is our preliminary look at the divisions and the positive and negative components of each. Again, what surprises us the most about this season is the increase in parity that exists throughout the league. In our view, parity can only add to the excitement of the game. We are anxious for the 2009 season already.

(If we were to rank the divisions in 2008 based on how teams did in our Performance Ranking the final ranking would be:

NFC East

AFC East

NFC South

AFC South

AFC North

NFC North

AFC West

NFC West)

NFL Power Rankings: An Alternative View

Donna Cavanagh — Sun, 17 May 2009 12:44:54 -0400

Now that the draft is over and mini-camps have started around the league, the next onslaught of information coming your way will be the never-ending stream of “NFL Power Rankings.”

In some ways, PossessionPoints.com is no different than other information outlets in that we will be presenting our own version of Power Rankings weekly during the season. However, that is where the similarity ends.

We believe that when people look at the lists of Power Rankings they want to see how their favorite team fares in the eyes of those who construct these Power Rankings and if their team has a chance of making it to the playoffs or the Super Bowl.

We would like to state right off the bat that a team’s talent is just one of the factors that determines a team’s win-loss record and a possible playoff berth.

In this article, we would like to highlight four factors that contribute to a team’s final win-loss record.

Those factors are randomness, schedule, home field advantage, and team quality (traditional Power Ranking if you will). We have provided a lot of the background information for this article on a page on our site.

Randomness

We know that over the course of a season, a team’s final win-loss record is more than random luck. Much of a team’s success does depend on talent.

However, imagine if you will, a scenario where all 32 teams are completely equal in the talent department and there is no such thing as a home field advantage. If these conditions existed, what kind of records do you think you would see?

Do you think that almost all teams would have win-loss records between 7-9 and 9-7?

We put together a quick little spreadsheet and used the 2009 schedule to come up with random results for all 256 games on the schedule.

We posted some of the “random season” results on our site, and the results surprised us in that typically, the top teams had 12-4 records, and the bottom teams finished around 4-12.

It may seem strange, until you consider the fact that the chance of winning or losing 12 out of 16 coin tosses is about one in 36, and 11 wins or losses of 16 coin tosses is about one in 15.

So, applying this same principle with 32 teams each season, it does make sense that just by random chance, some teams would go 12-4, and some would go 4-12.

We always expect extremes to be rare, and the odds of a random 16-0 or 0-16 record are around 1 in 65,000. As we were working with our spreadsheet, we did see this extreme occur, and it happened on our spreadsheet to the NY Jets.

We did not purposely focus on the Jets. It could have been any of the teams, and we could have used any season schedule to get similar results.

We will grant you that the football sometimes takes funny bounces, and this can be a factor in some games during the season making luck or chance a legitimate portion in a team’s win-loss record.

It is a totally unpredictable factor, and therefore, it cannot be incorporated into analysis and forecasting equations.

Since equations are our thing, we do not want to spend that much time talking about randomness, but we also do not want you to dismiss the fact that it can affect a team’s win-loss record.

Schedule:

Take any ranking system. We do not care if it is an expert’s Power Rankings or last year’s win-loss rankings. You can pick whatever. Play these rankings against this year’s schedule, and you may be surprised at what you find.

To illustrate this point, we took a look at some 2009 Power Rankings that have already been published. For what we are doing in this article, it does not matter if you accept this order as realistic or not. In the example we chose to focus on, the 32 teams were ranked:

We played these rankings against this year’s schedule neglecting home field advantage or any randomness.

In this scenario, if a team plays a higher-ranked team, the lower-ranked team gets the loss while the higher-ranked wins.

When we played these rankings against the 2009 schedule in this manner, it was no surprise that the top nine teams would become playoff teams.

However, the No. 10 Dolphins would miss the playoffs with a record of 9-7 while the No. 11 Vikings would also miss the playoffs with a record of 10-6.

The next playoff team this list for the 2009 season would be the No.12 Eagles who play 11 teams that rank lower than the Eagles and only five teams that rank higher. This would give the Eagles an 11-5 record and a wild-card playoff spot.

Based on these rankings and their schedule, the No. 13 Packers, like the Vikings, would also miss the NFC playoffs with a 10-6 record.

The No. 14 Cardinals and No. 15 Chargers would win their divisions and make the playoffs with 9-7 and 10-6 records respectively.

One would like to think that the 12 best teams make the playoffs each year, but that just is not possible with the way the NFL schedule works, even if every team plays perfectly to its capability each week.

Home Field Advantage

Now, we are going to get a little more complicated (yes, it is true) but stay with us. To be able to work with home field advantage variations, this we had to quantify how much better one team was relative to another.

To keep this as simple as possible, we assumed the difference between each team was a constant.

So, the top ranked team was assigned a +8 (just our own statistical yardstick), the second team a +7.5, the third team a +7. Each team was graded 0.5 away from the one next to it, and the value of 0 was skipped so the bottom team had a -8.

With this tight a ranking in our system, very small changes in the value of home field make a big difference.

Now, we can start modifying how much home field is worth and observe what happens to win -loss records and playoff scenarios.

In the extreme adjustment of home field advantage, all teams would be 8-8, wining all their home games and losing all their road games. This would be boring. Who wants the home team to always win?

Once again, we used the same example rankings. When we made the home field advantage factor worth just one percent, the playoff picture changed very little.

The No. 12 Eagles fell into a tie for the final NFC wild-card playoff spot as they saw their record fall to 10-6. However, it was not the No. 11 Vikings with whom they tied. It was the No. 13 Packers.

When we bumped up home field to two percent, the Packers’ record rose to 12-4, and they tied the Bears for the division. The Vikings remained behind them with a record of 10-6.

At this level, the Eagles miss the playoffs with a 9-7 record. The Cardinals would still win the NFC west but now with an 11-5 record. The AFC playoff picture would remain unchanged.

At the four percent level, the Bears, Vikings and Packers all make the playoffs with 11-5 records. The Panthers and Falcons would tie for the NFC South title with 10-6 records.

The only point of this little exercise is to illustrate what many people take as a given. Schedule combined with a home field advantage does play a role in a team’s season and win-loss record.

Yet, many Power Rankings omit these factors. Even with the constant distribution of team quality that we used, you can see how the value of home field can change win-loss records and the playoff picture.

Team Quality (Traditional Power Ranking)

Most “Power Rankings” authors are trying to enumerate teams in order of quality. In other words, best teams are ranked highest and the not-as-talented teams are ranked at the bottom.

The question we always come up with is: How much better is the No. 1 team over the No. 2 team or even the No. 10 team?

An even distribution like we used in the “home field” analysis above is not a very realistic distribution.

The top team may be well ahead of the remainder of the league, as it was with the 2007 Patriots, or the top five teams may be very close together like last season was by our measure.

The same is true at the bottom. By our measure, the 2008 Lions fell well below the rest of the league.

To illustrate this, we took the same rankings and gave the top 12 teams relative performance grades between 34 and 45 (Again, our statistical yardstick).

The bottom 12 teams got values between -34 and -45 while the middle eight teams were given values between 4 and -4.

Of course with no home field advantage, the records are the same as we described in the “schedule” section.

We need to vary home field by larger increments now since the separation between the 32 teams is much greater being between 45 and -45 as opposed to 8 and -8 in the example above.

At a four percent adjustment, the Chargers no longer make the playoffs and are replaced by the Broncos who had a “Power Ranking” of 18. The Bears and Vikings make the playoffs while the Packers do not.

At a 15 percent adjustment, the Chargers are back in with a 9-7 record while the Broncos fall out with an 8-8 record. The Packers move back into contention for a playoff spot as their record equals the Vikings at 11-5. A tie breaker would determine who made the playoffs.

So What?

You are probably thinking, “So what, if you play with numbers enough you can make them say anything you want.”

Well, not really, even given their relatively low power ranking of 14 there was virtually nothing we could do to make the Cardinals miss the playoffs. The NFC playoff picture fluctuated much more than the AFC playoff picture did.

Even if an all-knowing supernatural NFL power provided a perfectly ordered list of best to worst teams, the chances that the top 12 teams on this list make the playoffs would be very slim for the reasons we have explained.

A Different List

As we said at the start of the article, we also publish a list that resembles the “Power Rankings” list. We call it our “Performance Rankings” because it is based on how teams perform in our PossessionPoints stat.

We are not going to explain all that goes into our stat in this article because we would bore you to death, but the end result is a positive or negative number we call the “Relative Performance Measure” or RPM.

Our RPM list is just the ranking of teams from the largest RPM to the smallest. But with the RPM, you can see how close one team is to another.

In fact, two adjacent teams may either be a fraction or several numbers apart. Typically the 32 teams will be spread over a 90-point or more range.

Below is a Performance Rankings chart. The last column, on the right shows the final RPM from last season (with one exception we will talk about later).

It should be no surprise to note that the Steelers are on the top of the RPM list, and the Lions are on the bottom. Where some teams fell in the middle might be a surprise to some fans, but that is where the stat put them.

Some of you might be thinking, “Last year is history, why are you showing this now?”

Well, if you look at the chart and each team’s win-loss record, you will note that these records are not the win-loss records from 2008.

What these win-loss columns show is a projection of each team for 2009 if each of the teams played their 2009 schedule at the same RPM level as 2008.

Do Not Panic! This is at best a partial look at what’s ahead. We have not made our modifications for off-season trades and drafts.

The one adjustment we talked about comes into play here. The Panthers’ 2008 RPM was not good. We adjusted them so they would fall with the leaders up at No. 7, within 8 points of the top ranked Steelers.

Even with that adjustment, when we played the Panthers revised RPM against their schedule with a four percent home field adjustment, Carolina ends up with a 9-7 record. (Four percent home field adjustment is the best historical adjustment for our RPM).

Conversely, look at the No. 17 Cardinals. They had an RPM of 10.93 (the Super Bowl brought them down some). However, when we play that RPM against their 2009 schedule, we project a 12-4 record.

We could find a lot of interesting facts in this chart, but we are just going to focus on one more. The No. 13 Falcons and the No. 14 Saints are in the same division and had very similar 2008 RPMs of 12 and 14.

Yet, if the No. 14 Saints play at the same level of their 2008 RPM in 2009, we project that they would have a 10-6 record while the No.13 Falcons would go to just 8-8.

Our list ranks teams based on how they perform in our stat. History has shown us that this is a pretty good way to look at which teams can ultimately win in the playoffs. Our list would be sorted much differently if we sorted teams just by projected wins.

In a nutshell, we believe that Performance Rankings are more than just opinion-based lists. Factors such as home field advantage and strength of schedule have to come into play as well if fans are going to get a real feel for how their team’s chances at success.

This season we will add “Projected Win-Loss Records” to the RPM value when we publish our weekly rankings. This way readers will get a feel for relative quality from the RPM number as well as how it would appear to project to wins and losses.

(For more background on how the RPM shows itself in the Playoffs you may want to read an article we wrote during last year’s playoffs “NFL Playoff Upsets: What Upsets?”)

Should Mark Sanchez Be the New York Jets' 2009 Starter?

Donna Cavanagh — Sun, 03 May 2009 12:39:29 -0400

What can Jets’ fans expect this season from rookie QB Mark Sanchez? With all the hype and exposure surrounding the “new” New York Jet, we, at PossessionPoints.com, wanted to try to keep our expectations as grounded as possible.

We decided to look at the top 10 quarterbacks of last season (by QB rating) and see how their immersion into NFL play prepared them for success. Which quarterbacks got to wade into the professional football waters slowly, and which ones were thrown off the pier without much notice and expected to swim?

Here they are:

Philip Rivers – 2008 QB Rating: 105.5

In the 2004 and 2005 seasons, Rivers only appeared in two games, and he only attempted 30 passes. These stats put him in what we call the “let’s let him get used to the water slowly” category.

Chad Pennington – 2008 QB Rating: 97.4

In 2000, Pennington appeared in one game, and in 2001, he appeared in two. He attempted only 25 passes in the two years. With these numbers, Pennington is also another toe dipper in the NFL waters.

Kurt Warner – 2008 QB Rating: 96.9

Warner's NFL career started late. Although signed as a free agent out of Northern Iowa by the Packers in 1994, Warner never saw opening day. He was released in the preseason. Stints in Europe and the Arena Football League preceded his final arrival into the NFL.

Even though Warner had vast football experience behind him before he put on a Rams’ uniform, Warner still played in just one game in 1998 and attempted only 11 passes. He, like Pennington and Rivers, is also a slow wader.

Drew Brees – 2008 QB Rating: 96.2

Drafted by the Chargers in 2001, Brees played in just one game and attempted 27 passes in his first season. In his second season, he played in all 16 games for the Chargers. After an impressive 4-0start, Brees ended his second season with a mediocre 8-8 record and a QB rating of only 76.

The Chargers benched him during the 2003 season after he played in 11 games in favor of veteran Doug Flutie. The combined efforts of these two QBs gave San Diego a miserable 4-12 record. Brees’ QB rating sat at 67 for those 11 games.

For us, Brees fell into the “you can throw him in the water, but better give him a life preserver to survive.” category. After his near drowning in San Diego, a change of scenery put Brees on the path to quarterback success.

Peyton Manning – 2008 QB Rating: 95

In 1998, Peyton Manning was drafted No. 1 for the Colts and proceeded to play 16 games while attempting 575 passes. His QB rating was the lowest of his career at 71. We categorize Manning as a quarterback who was thrown off the pier and expected to excel. While he has excelled, his first year was his worst and the Colts ended their season with a horrible 3-13 record.

Aaron Rodgers – 2008 QB Rating: 93.8

In 2005, 2006 and 2007, Rodgers played in a total of seven games. He attempted just 59 passes in those three seasons prior to his starting in 2008 in place of the relocated Brett Favre. Rodgers is definitely another toe dipper in the NFL quarterback pool.

Rodgers is like many NFL quarterbacks who appear to thrive after two-to-three seasons of sitting.

Matt Schaub – 2008 QB Rating: 92.7

In 2004, 2005 and 2006, Schaub attempted a total of just 161 passes for the Falcons. In 2008 alone, he attempted 380 for the Texans. Schaub, a three-year backup QB to Michael Vick, is another example of teaching a QB to swim before putting him into action.

Tony Romo – 2008 QB Rating: 91.4

Signed as an undrafted free agent with the Cowboys in 2003, Romo did not throw a pass for them until three years later in 2006. Yes, Romo only held a clipboard for his first three years, but his slow immersion gave him the confidence and skills to succeed.

Jeff Garcia – 2008 QB Rating: 90.2

Does anyone not appreciate Jeff Garcia’s trek to the NFL? Garcia played in Canada for four years prior to his NFL experience. In his first NFL season, he did play in 13 games and attempted 375 passes.

We really have a tough time putting him in the “just throw him in the water and see if he stays afloat” category as he seems to have swam pretty well up North. So, we are going to say that his four years in Canada is the equivalent of the three years as an NFL backup.

Matt Cassel – 2008 QB Rating: 89.4

Our vote for “Cinderella Quarterback”. As a backup from 2005-2007, Cassel attempted just 45 passes in three years. We all know about 2008 and what fate dealt to both Tom Brady and Matt Cassel.

For Cassel, who also served as the backup at USC, he might have easily assumed that his NFL uniform would always include a pair of headphones and a clipboard.

However, he learned well in those three-plus years and proved himself when given the opportunity. We will mercifully put him in the toe dipper category, but to be honest, he probably falls more into the “stuck on the beach and watching everyone else have a good time” category.

That’s the top 10 from 2008. If you notice, the big rookies who made all the headlines last year are not in that list. So, how did they perform?

While not in the top 10, Matt Ryan came close and ranked No. 11 with a QB rating of 87.7. Impressive for a rookie who we feel literally had the fate of the Falcons faithful on his young shoulders.

His coach had little choice but to start him from the beginning, since they also traded away Matt Schaub. However, head coach Mike Smith did give Ryan breathing room by supplying him with a copious number of running plays especially in the earlier part of the season.

Not in the top 10 and sitting at 22 with a QB rating of 80.3 is Joe Flacco of the Ravens. In the preseason, few thought Flacco would be the starter, but injuries and strange virus that sidelined Troy Smith, put Flacco from wader to jumper. Give him credit for accomplishing what he did.

The Ravens formidable defense was Flacco’s life preserver.

What we take from our little study is this: If Rex Ryan follows conventional QB development philosophy, he will start veteran Kellen Clemens and leave Sanchez carrying a clipboard for a year or two.

Ryan may believe that he can have the same success with Sanchez as the Falcons have with Ryan and the Ravens have with Flacco. Hopefully, somewhere in his coaching strategy is the knowledge that even the most gifted rookie quarterback cannot carry a team.

In our view, the Jets’ success or lack thereof is more dependent on Rex Ryan than it is on Sanchez. If Ryan does start Sanchez and puts him in a position where he makes mistakes that cost the Jets wins, we would put the blame on Rex Ryan and his staff..

One more note, you may ask why we focused on Sanchez and the Jets instead of on Matt Stafford and the Lions. The answer is simply this: The Lions can only go up from that 0-16 record.

Stafford could start, without setting the NFL on fire, and still improve the Lions. We think Stafford should be fine as long as Detroit’s coaching staff keeps him away from excessive sacks which could affect his confidence and future performances.

Optimism Justified for Minnesota Vikings

Donna Cavanagh — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 19:11:28 -0400

At this time of year, all teams are optimistic about the upcoming season and why not? Off season trades and the NFL draft infuse new blood into sometimes tired rosters giving even the most desperate teams a feeling of hope. While we at PossessionPoints.com admire the positive attitudes that all teams have, we believe that there are some teams, more than others, who deserve to hold on to those high hopes and optimism. For us, the Minnesota Vikings are one such team.

The Vikings are coming off a season where they ranked ninth in offense, fourth in defense and fifth overall according to the PossessionPoints statistic. While our rankings may differ from the traditional total yardage-type rankings, they do display a high correlation to winning. For example, we projected the 2008 Vikings would go 9-7 and take the division title. We were a little off in that they won the division with a 10-6 record.

Based on those PossessionPoints rankings, we would have expected to see the Vikings work on offense first in the draft. So, we were not taken aback when they did exactly that drafting wide receiver Percy Harvin from Florida and offensive tackle Phil Loadholt from Oklahoma. These selections, coupled with their upgrade at backup QB with the acquisition of Sage Rosenfels (maybe starter after preseason), have prompted us to make an upward adjustment of at least five percent to Minnesota’s offensive numbers from last year.

For reference purposes, a five percent adjustment either positive or negative is considered a small adjustment in PossessionPoints. An average adjustment would range between 10 and 15 percent up or down, and a significant adjustment would be 20 percent or more in either direction.

Minnesota’s three remaining draft picks went to the defensive side of the ball, and we are not yet sure if they got any impact players. With this in mind, we are most likely to forecast that their defense will be about the same as last year. There is certainly room for improvement with the Vikings in defense since they were 22 percent behind the league-leading Ravens. However, given that they ranked fourth in defense last season by our statistic, an unchanged forecast is not all that bad. Even if they remain unchanged in PossessionPoints, they should still easily be a top-10 defense next season.

There is another factor that gives support to our belief that the Vikings should be a tough team again in 2009. By our stat from last season’s performances, the Vikings have the second easiest schedule in 2009. The difficulty is pretty balanced between home and road games as Minnesota has the fifth easiest home and the fifth easiest road schedules. (Having the Lions twice on their schedule does help).

We are long way from making our adjustments to all the teams in the league, and when we do complete the adjustments, the picture may change drastically. For instance, a significant upward adjustment in the Lions’ projected performance could spell trouble for teams who have to face a new Detroit team twice. As we get closer to the season, we will draw more a more concrete picture. As of now, our outlook for the Vikings in 2009 remains positive and hopeful.

Pioli, Haley, and Cassel: The Perfect Storm for the Kansas City Chiefs?

Donna Cavanagh — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 16:56:49 -0400

Is a Perfect Storm circling over Kansas City? Well, if you are a Chiefs fan, you are hoping that the storm not only hovers, but makes landfall as well.

In the upcoming season, Kansas City will experience a triple force: a new general manager, a new head coach, and a new franchise quarterback. For many experts, a change in one of these positions sends up a red flag, but we at PossessionPoints.com think that this triple whammy may spark the beginning of a new and dynamic Chiefs team.

It is true that only Matt Cassel has actual experience in his new job. As starting quarterback for the New England Patriots, Cassel proved his physical and mental prowess when he stepped in for Tom Brady last season.

Scott Pioli has a great deal of experience in the front offices around the league, including stints in Cleveland, Baltimore and New York, but this is his first GM position. With that said, Pioli was a key factor in building the Patriots into the dominating force that ruled the NFL in recent years.

Although new to head coaching, Todd Haley has paid his dues in the coaching world, holding positions with the Bears, Jets, Cowboys, and Cardinals. Haley was instrumental in all teams making the playoffs while he was with them. His most recent success came as offensive coordinator for the Cardinals who, as we all know, got to the Super Bowl.

Why do we bring this all up? Because we love historical parallels, and we try to learn from them. In 2008, the Dolphins also made the risky triple change when they brought in Bill Parcells as head of football operations, Tony Sparano as head coach, and Chad Pennington as starting QB.

When we did our Preseason Preview issue for the 2008 season, we adjusted our estimated performance of the Dolphins up by 10 percent, which is generous for us, but not outlandish. The result of this 10 percent was that we still expected Miami to have another losing record.

However, in our 2008 Preseason Preview we also said, “Actually, the computer does give hope if the Dolphins can improve their performance 15 percent more on offense and defense. If we up their improvement to 25 percent in each category, their projected record actually vaults all the way to 10-6. Could the Dolphins be a team—we color “Red” —that makes the playoffs?”

We didn’t expect the Dolphins would improve on both offense and defense by 25 percent. That is an exceptional improvement. Truth be told, Miami improved by 30 percent on offense and 28 percent on defense, and as you know, they went 11-5 and made the playoffs.

In hindsight, maybe we should not have been so stingy with our upwards adjustment. We didn’t take the arrival of their “perfect storm” as seriously as we should have.

The parallels between the 2008 Dolphins and 2009 Chiefs do not end with their personnel changes. For example, there is the non-football coincidence, in that Bill Parcells is Scott Pioli’s father-in-law. (Can you imagine the holiday dinners in that family? We’re guessing football is a big part of that table conversation.)

Although this is an unscientific statement to make, we think that some of Bill Parcells’ magic has to rub off on Pioli.

There are other more technical parallels as well. The 2007 Dolphins ranked 20th in possession points offense with a 79 (the higher the number the better). The 2008 Chiefs ranked 24th in possession points offense with an 83. This is very close statistically.

The 2007 Dolphins ranked 32nd in possession points defense with a 122 (the lower the number the better) while the 2008 Chiefs ranked 29th in possession points defense with a 122.

To give you an idea of the significance of the number range, the 2007 Patriots were the best possession points offense in the last two seasons with a value of 163 (about double the Dolphins/Chiefs number), so both teams would need to improve by 100 percent to get to the Pats’ level. The 2008 Ravens were the best defense in the last two seasons with a value of 54, which is less than half of the value posted by the Dolphins and Chiefs in 2007 and 2008.

Well, no one owns the crystal ball that says for sure that the Chiefs will transform themselves into a playoff team just as the Dolphins did. However, history can and often does repeat itself, and that perfect storm that landed in Miami in 2008, could very well be making its way to Kansas City this year.

2009 NFL Mock Draft: Composite of Experts

Donna Cavanagh — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 09:53:18 -0400

You can barely go to a sports site without stumbling over at least one mock draft. So, we at PossessionPoints.com, decided to take on a project that we have not seen elsewhere.

We constructed a composite mock draft based on mock drafts completed this week from 10 football “experts.”

The first thing we noticed about the experts’ drafts is that they are all over the place. While some players have made their way to everyone’s list, there are some highly-touted players who made very few lists. We did notice that the first three top picks were the same on most mock drafts.

Although our composite draft cannot take into account every expert’s picks, it does give insight into the relative value of certain players as seen through the eyes of many experts.

Each mock draft has just 32 players, but our composite draft contains 45 because that is the number of unique names on these 10 mock drafts. For our purpose, we took these names and put them in order based on what we call a “composite score”.

The composite score was generated quite simply—really, we swear. We added together the selection number that a particular player held in each of the mock drafts.

For example, Matthew Stafford was picked No. 1 in all 10 mock drafts we looked at; therefore, he had a composite score of 10.

If a player was not on a particular mock draft, he was given a score of 33 (32 being the last pick) for that mock draft. For example, Michael Johnson was picked for only one of the 10 mock drafts. Amazingly, on that draft, he was picked at No. 9. In the other nine drafts where he was not included, we gave him a score of 33 making his composite score 306.

Let’s see where the players fell out in our composite draft:

1. Detroit – Matt Stafford, quarterback from University of Georgia

Composite Score 10--As we said before, Matt Stafford was the No. 1 choice in all 10 of the mock drafts we studied.

2. St. Louis Rams – Jason Smith, OT from Baylor

Composite Score 26 - Jason Smith was picked in the No. 2 spot in eight of the 10 drafts we looked at. On the other two, he was picked at No. 4 and No. 6 which makes him a pretty solid No. 2 composite pick.

3. Kansas City Chiefs – Aaron Curry, LB from Wake Forest

Composite Score 34 – Curry was picked as early as two in one draft and as late as eight in another. He wound up at No. 3, and eight of the ten drafts had him at No. 3.

4. Seattle Seahawks – Eugene Monroe, OT from Virginia

Composite Score 42 – Monroe was also picked as early as No. 2 in one draft and as late as No. 6 in three drafts. The other six drafts had him at No. 4 four times and No. 3 twice.

5. Cleveland Browns – Michael Crabtree, WR from Texas Tech

Composite Score 67 – Crabtree was only picked at No. 5 in two of the ten drafts. He was picked at No. 4 three times, but that is the earliest any of the mock experts had him selected. The latest any of our experts had him was at No. 13.

6. Cincinnati Bengals – B.J. Raji, DT from Boston College

Composite Score 75 – Raji was selected at No. 6 in three of the mock drafts. This is the earliest he was selected, but the latest he was selected was No. 10. This is a tight range, so we find it hard to argue with his No. 6 position.

7. Oakland Raiders – Brian Orakpo, DE from Texas

Composite Score 79 – While the composite has Orakpo ending up at No. 7, none of the mock drafts have him in this position. Orakpo’s earliest position in the mocks was at No. 5, and surprisingly, he was put there six times. So, it would appear many experts think a more likely destination for this defensive end is Cleveland rather than Oakland.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars – Mark Sanchez, quarterback from USC

Composite Score 88 – Sanchez was picked as early as No. 4 and as late as No. 12 in our 10 mock drafts. Three mock drafts had him at No. 8 where he wound up on the composite. Three other mock drafts also put him at No. 12.

9. Green Bay Packers – Aaron Maybin, DE from Penn State

Composite Score 103 – Maybin was selected as early as No. 9 and as late as No. 13 in the ten mock drafts. His most frequent selection spot was No. 10 where he appeared five times.

10. San Francisco 49ers – Andre Smith, OT from Alabama

Composite Score 112 – Smith was picked as early as No. 6 and as late as No. 16. The most common selection in the mock drafts for Smith was No. 13 where he appeared four times. Three experts had him going at No. 6. The tendency of a composite is to split the difference which is why he is on our composite at No. 10.

11. Buffalo Bills – Jeremy Maclin, WR from Missouri

Composite Score 119 – The selections were highly varied for Maclin as he had the largest spread of any of the first 12 composite picks. His earliest pick was at No. 7 and the latest was way down at No. 26. He was most frequently picked at No.7 which was where he showed up in four of the mock drafts.

While the composite puts him at No. 11, none of the mock drafts had him at this number. We side with all the experts here as well since the Bills have picked up the one and only Terrell Owens.

12. Denver Broncos – Everette Brown, DE from Florida State.

Composite Score 122 – The Mock Drafts have Brown being selected as early as No. 5 and as late as No. 14. He is most frequently picked at No. 11 where he appears in three of the mock drafts. We can see Maclin sliding down and Brown sliding up without too much trouble.

13. Washington Redskins – Tyson Jackson, DE from LSU.

Composite Score 128 – Jackson was picked as high as No. 9 and as late as No. 18. His most common selection spot was at No. 12 where he showed up four times.

14. New Orleans Saints – Malcolm Jenkins, CB from Ohio State

Composite Score 144 – This one is really surprising. Next to Matt Stafford, Jenkins has the tightest range on the 10mock drafts. He was either selected No. 14 or No. 15 in all 10 expert mock drafts with No. 14 being the most frequent spot at six times.

15. Houston Texans – Michael Oher, OT from Mississippi

Composite Score 168 – There is a pretty wide range with Oher as some mock drafts have him going as early as No. 8 while some having him go as late as No. 22. He shows up most often in the No. 16 spot where he appears four times.

16. San Diego Chargers – Brian Cushing, LB from USC

Composite Score 178 – The selection numbers on Cushing are broad as well. He is picked as early as No. 12 and as late as No. 25. It is a tie as to where he falls most often in selection. He appears in three mock drafts at No. 15 and in three mock drafts at No. 18.

17. New York Jets – Josh Freeman, quarterback from Kansas State.

Composite score 183 – Freeman is the third quarterback in most mock drafts. He shows up as early as No. 11 and as late as No. 22. He actually does show up at No. 17 in two mock drafts, but he is found most often at No. 19 where he appears three times.

18. Denver Broncos – Robert Ayers, DE from Tennessee

Composite score 200 – Talk about your wide ranges! Ayers shows up as early as No. 11 and as late as not-picked-in-the-first-round. While two mock drafts left him out completely, two had him at No. 11 and two at No. 13. None had him going at No. 18 where the composite score landed him.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Chris Wells, RB from Ohio State

Composite Score 204 – Wells gets the award of “widest range” of anyone we looked at. Given that we only assigned 33 numbers, we were impressed that his range was 28. He was selected as early as No. 5 and as late as not-picked-in-the-first-round.

It is pretty clear to see that the mock draft experts have no idea what to do with Wells. His most frequent selection fell at No. 14 where he appeared twice, but two mock drafts left him entirely off the first round.

20. Detroit Lions – Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR from University of Maryland

Composite Score 214 – Heyward-Bey came close to Wells’ “widest range” mark as he was picked as early as No. 7 and as late as not-in-the-first-round. Given that Detroit has greater needs than WR, we doubt that Heyward-Bey will wind up where the composite left him. The most frequent selection number he held was No. 17 where he showed up in three of the mock drafts.

21. Philadelphia Eagles – Knowshon Moreno, RB from University of Georgia

Composite Score 229 – Moreno showed up in all ten mock drafts as early as No. 16 and as late as No.31. He did appear at No. 21 twice where the composite score left him, but he was more often selected at No. 31 where he was found in three of the mock drafts.

22. Minnesota Vikings – Peria Jerry, DT from Mississippi

Composite Score 230 – Jerry was picked as early as No. 15 and as far the down the list as not-picked-in-the-first-round. He was only left off of one of the mock drafts. He showed up most frequently at No. 27 where he was found four times.

23. New England Patriots – Brandon Pettigrew, TE from Oklahoma State

Composite Score 232 – Pettigrew has the distinction of having the highest composite score while being included in all 10 mock drafts. The earliest he appeared is at No. 17 and the latest was at No. 31. He can be found most often at No. 21 where he appeared four times. While he does not show up at his composite position of 23, he does show up three times at 24. We think 24 might be more accurate.

24. Atlanta Falcons – Rey Maualuga, LB from USC

Composite Score 240 – We would love to tell you there were 10 times when Maualuga showed up at No. 24, but, alas, that is not the case. He appeared as early as No. 15 on the mock drafts and as late as not-picked-in-the-first-round. He tied in his most frequent selection spots appearing at No. 20 and No. 30 two times.

25. Miami Dolphins – Clay Matthews, LB from USC

Composite Score 245 – Just like the other USC linebacker above, Matthews was left off the first round picks once and selected as early as No. 15 once. He most frequently appeared at No. 25 where the composite score placed him, and he showed up at this selection spot three times.

26. Baltimore Ravens – Vontae Davis, CB from Illinois

Composite Score 245 – Davis tied with Matthews in the composite score, but because Matthews’ earliest selection was at No. 15 and Davis’ was at No. 19, Matthews got the 25thslot. Davis, also like Matthews, most frequently showed up in the mock drafts at No. 25 where he appeared twice.

27. Indianapolis Colts – Eben Britton, OT from Arizona

Composite Score 249 – Britton was picked as early as No. 20 and was left off the first-round list as well. None of the mocks had him No. 27 as the composite did, and he most frequently landed at No. 22 where he appeared three times.

28. Buffalo Bills– Larry English, DE from Northern Illinois.

Composite Score 270 – Some mock drafts picked English as early as 23, but he was left entirely out of the first round in three of the 10 drafts we studied. None of the mock experts picked him at No. 28, and the most frequent spot where he showed up was at No. 23 where he appeared four times.

29. New York Giants – Percy Harvin, WR from Florida

Composite Score 280 – Harvin was picked as high as No. 22 and as late as not-picked-in-the-first-round. His most frequent selection spot was No. 26 where he showed up twice. He did show up in one mock draft at No. 29 where the composite score left him.

30. Tennessee Titans – William Beatty, OT from Connecticut

Composite Score 286 – This selection is hard to figure since Beatty was left off the first- round in six of the 10 mock drafts we examined. However, he did show up at No. 20 in three of the drafts and at No. 28 in one which is why his composite is at No. 30.

31. Arizona Cardinals – Evander Hood, DT from University of Missouri.

Composite Score 302 – Hood was left out of the first round in five of the 10 mock drafts we studied. When he was included, Hood showed up most frequently at No. 27 where he appeared three times.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers – Michael Johnson, DE from Georgia Tech

Composite Score 306 – This one almost seems ridiculous. Johnson was left out of the first round in nine of the 10 mock drafts we looked at. The only mock draft that included him selected him way up the list at No. 9 which is how he found his way to the 32nd spot.

As we said at the start, there were 45 unique players that showed up in these 10 mock drafts. We are listing players 33-45 and their composite scores so you can see who the remaining players are and where they fell: Always keep in mind, that draft experts re-evaluate their choices daily.

If we were to re-run our composite again tomorrow, there might be changes due to the experts’ changes.

33. Darius Butler, CB from Connecticut – Composite Score 306

34. Hakeem Nicks, WR from North Carolina – Composite Score 307

35. Kenny Britt, WR from Rutgers – Composite Score 314

36. Alex Mack, C from California – Composite Score 315

37. Donald Brown, RB from Connecticut – Composite Score 319

38. Jarron Gilbert, DE from San Jose State – Composite Score 321

39. Connor Barwin, LB from University of Cincinnati – Composite Score 322

40. Clint Sintim, LB from University of Virginia – Composite Score 323

41. James Laurinaitis, LB from Ohio State – Composite Score 323

42. Shawn Nelson, TE from Southern Miss – Composite Score 325

43. LeSean McCoy, RB from University of Pittsburgh – Composite Score 328

44. Max Unger, OT from Oregon – Composite Score 328

45. D.J. Moore, CB from Vanderbilt – Composite Score 329

2009 NFL Schedule: Carolina Panthers Difficult, Arizona Cardinals Easy

Donna Cavanagh — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 20:11:59 -0400

There is a plethora of NFL schedule analysis out there, but we would like to offer a unique perspective that we gain when we use the Relative Performance Measure (RPM) of PossessionPoints.com.

We use this measure to evaluate the teams’ schedules based upon their opponents’ RPM from last season.

We do not want to go into all the details of what goes into our RPM, but our performance measure is particularly useful for this type of analysis.

It serves as a grading system that quickly identifies good teams from bad teams. Last season, the Steelers finished at the top of our chart with an RPM of +37, while the 0-16 Lions finished at the bottom with a -60.

When we apply our RPM to a season schedule analysis, we add together all the opponents’ RPMs.

So, if a team was only going to be playing the Steelers and Lions, we would say their schedule had a – 23 RPM which would be an easier than average schedule.

In the world of PossessionPoints, the higher RPM, the more difficult the opponent is and the more difficult the schedule is.

For the upcoming season, we found that the Panthers’ opponents had a +227 RPM, which translates into one really hard schedule. It well outpaced the No. 2 Dolphins whose opponents’ RPMs were +169.

The +227 RPM was also more than 100 RPM points greater than the third toughest schedule, which belongs to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

One of the goals of the NFL schedule makers is to try and give the previous season’s best teams a more difficult schedule; however, this season, according to PossessionPoints, it did not work out that way.

The Cardinals have the easiest schedule, as their opponents have a combined -199 RPM. Super Bowl Champions, the Steelers, have the fifth easiest schedule with a combined -128 RPM.

Another thing we look at or our schedule analysis is the home vs. road situation.

Imagine your favorite team had to go play the mythical schedule mentioned above of the Steelers and Lions.

To give your team the best chance of victory against those two teams, you would rather they play the Steelers in your stadium and go visit the Lions in Detroit.

When we added this to our analysis, the Steelers had the best or easiest road schedule with a -159 RPM. Their home schedule was a +30.

So, this means Pittsburgh is playing their most difficult games in their own house, in front of their fanatical and fervent fans.

The team that is playing the absolute toughest opponents at home are the Bucs whose home opponents have an RPM of +140.

We need to put an asterisk on this, because one of the Bucs’ home games is thousands of miles away across the pond in London against the Patriots.

We do not think the Bucs can legitimately claim a home field advantage there.

We realize that our analysis is different from the traditional media, so we have provided links to our site where you can find all of last year’s RPMs as well as the charts that break down this year’s schedule.

Do NFL Stat Leaders Equal Team Wins?

Donna Cavanagh — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 21:14:49 -0400

The world is concentrating on the upcoming NFL draft and the league’s future stars. As a slight diversion, PossessionPoints.com thought it was a good time to turn our attention to veteran NFL players who became stat leaders, and the effect these leaders have had on their team’s success.

We wanted to see if having a stat leader on a team correlated to winning games and more importantly, winning championships.

We looked at six statistical categories for seasons 2002 through 2008: three offensive and three defensive. On the offensive side, we analyzed the quarter back rating, rushing yards and receiving yards. On the defensive side of the ball, we looked at the leaders in number of tackles, sacks and interceptions.

In 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2006, two players tied for most interceptions. Since there was a tie, we counted both players as leaders. In total, there were 46 players whose efforts put them on top of the player pile in performance.

Of these 46 players, only five played in a Super Bowl, and only two of those five were on a Super Bowl-winning team. The first two players we found who played in a Super Bowl happened to be one of the interception-leader ties.

Rod Woodson from Oakland tied Brian Kelly from Tampa Bay in 2002 with eight interceptions. As you may remember, the Bucs beat the Raiders in the 2003 Super Bowl.

No Super Bowl participants were stat leaders again until the 2005 season which, of course, included the 2006 Super Bowl. During this season, Shaun Alexander of the Seahawks led the NFL in rushing with 1,880 yards. While the Seahawks got to the big game, they lost the championship to the Steelers.

The next season, Peyton Manning of the Colts, led the NFL with a quarter back rating of 101. This turned out to be the magical season for Manning who finally put the critics to rest and earned his Super Bowl ring.

The fifth and final Super Bowl participant was Tom Brady of the Patriots who led the league in 2007 with a quarterback rating of 117. As we all know, the Patriots would have achieved a perfect season had they not lost the Super Bowl that year to the New York Giants.

Five out of 46 stat leaders or 10.8 percent have made it to the Super Bowl. This may seem like a pretty fair number of players, but percentages are a funny thing. Consider this: two out of 32 teams in the NFL make it to the Super Bowl each year. That translates to 6.2 percent. This makes a10.8 percent figure seem not too impressive.

Our main point is this: having an NFL stat leader on a team does not necessarily equate to winning championships. However, what about winning games in general?

We took a look at the win/loss records of all the stat leaders, and there were some leaders on losing teams such as D’Qwell Jackson of the Browns. In 2008, Jackson led the league in tackles with 154, but Cleveland could only muster a record of 4-12.

However, when we added together the records of all the stat leaders from 2002 to 2008, we found that the combined record of their teams was over .500. In fact, the overall combined record for the seven years we analyzed was 429 wins and 307 losses or a winning percentage of .582. This is slightly better than a single season record of 9-7, which is often good enough for a playoff berth.

What we conclude is this: Teams need their stat leaders, but having those leaders is not a sure trip to the Super Bowl.

The NFL Draft: What High Draft Picks Turn Into Stars?

Donna Cavanagh — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 19:47:49 -0400

We did an article earlier this week, entitled NFL Draft: Need Line Help? Don’t Wait. In that article, we looked at players who were drafted after pick No. 200. As we were doing this research, we were struck by the lack of offensive and defensive linemen in this group—thus the title of that article.

We also read comments from two readers who noted that “undrafted” players were not included in our sample, and one specifically asked if we would do a similar article which explored the mighty undrafted.

This seemed like a grand idea, and we decided to come up with an approach that would look at both drafted and undrafted players on a position-by-position basis evenly. What can we say? We love analytical challenges at PossessionPoints.com.

Looking at stat leaders for quarterback, wide receiver, or running back is an easy task, but statistics for offensive linemen are not as prevalent. Just using stat leaders would not give a fair assessment to all positions, and it could skew the results.

Since we wanted to evaluate all positions on similar criteria, we settled on the following approach. We took all the players, starters and reserves on the 2008 and 2009 Pro Bowl rosters, eliminated duplicates, and looked at them position-by-position.

We grouped some positions together such as linebackers, running backs, and safeties (we didn’t list specifically inside and outside linebacker, fullback, and running back, or free and strong safety).

We then took these categories, which typically had 15 to 20 players in them and looked at how many of these players were drafted in the top 100.

We had a total of 147 unique players for the two years, and of these 147 Pro-Bowlers, 75 percent were in the top 100 of their draft. So, which positions had the highest and lowest percentage of being drafted in the top 100?

Offensive tackle had 88 percent of their 16 total players drafted in the top 100. In fact, 14 of the 16 fell in the top 50.

There was one OT, Jake Long, who was drafted No. 1 overall, and there was also only one OT, Jason Peters, who went undrafted back in 2004. The only other OT that was outside the top 50 was Matt Birk who was pick 173 back in 1998.

At the other end of the spectrum was the quarterback position. The most highly-valued position had only 54% of their Pro-Bowlers drafted in the top 100 in their draft class. There were 13 unique quarterbacks in the group.

While this group had the most players picked No. 1 overall (the Manning boys), it also had three who were undrafted; Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, and Jeff Garcia.

There were seven QBs who were picked with a selection between one and 32, but none were selected between 32 and 187. In addition to the three totally undrafted quarterbacks, there were three who were taken late in the draft at selections between 187 and 213.

We found it curious that just ahead of quarterbacks in percentage were guards and centers who had just 57% of their Pro-Bowlers drafted in the top 100.

The G/C category had five Pro-Bowlers (Kris Dielman, Brian Waters, Shaun O’Hara, Casey Wiegmann, and Jeff Saturday) who went totally undrafted. However, other than those five, there was only one Pro-Bowler, Dan Koppen, who was drafted after 50 at selection 164.

It is interesting to note that with the overall average of 75 percent, the positions of quarterback, guard/center, and running back fell below this mark while the wide receiver position was just at 75 percent.

The positions that ranked above the 75 percent drafted in the top 100 were defensive end, defensive tackle, cornerback, tight end, linebacker, safety, and offensive tackle.

Why does it appear that scouts can find quality offensive tackles, but when it comes to the high-profile positions of quarterback, running back and wide receiver, they are not as successful?

Could it be that raw physical attributes, easily measured by scouts, such as height, weight, speed and strength of offensive tackles correlate more directly to success in the NFL?

On the other side of the coin, do scouts have trouble quantifying the less-tangible attributes such as desire, leadership and decision-making at the skill positions of quarterback, running back and wide receiver?

This sounds like a reasonable theory to us, but we would love to hear your feedback on it.

For your reference, below is a table of the positions we looked at, the number of Pro-Bowlers who fell into each category, the percent drafted in the top 100, and other info we’ve talked about above.

Position	Total on Rosters	Drafted 1-100	Drafted 100-200	Drafted 200+	Undrafted	Percent Drafted top 100
OT	16	14	1	0	1	88%
S	8	7	0	1	0	88%
LB	13	11	1	0	1	85%
TE	6	5	0	0	1	83%
CB	16	13	2	1	0	81%
DT	9	7	0	0	2	78%
DE	18	14	3	1	0	78%
WR	16	12	1	2	1	75%
RB	18	12	3	0	3	67%
G/C	14	8	1	0	5	57%
QB	13	7	2	1	3	54%

NFL Draft: Need Line Help? Don't Wait

Donna Cavanagh — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 17:33:09 -0400

Every year as draft time approaches, sports pundits, experts, and fans scramble to guess which players will be picked in the selection process. Most eyes will concentrate on the first two rounds of players who are considered to be favorites in the quest for NFL stardom.

However, if you look back to the last decade, you will see that some of the top performers in this league came out of the draft in the 200 and above selection slots. These players may now be in a position to demand top contracts, but there was a time when their pro-football careers were uncertain. When teams picked these players, they considered them risks. Now, these same players would be considered the steals of a lifetime.

Some years had multiple players whose names would be recognized and some we were stretching to find one. Here is the list that PossessionPoints.com compiled of the best players taken in the draft at 200 plus in the years 1998 - 2007:

In 1998, the Arizona Cardinals drafted Pat Tilman at the 226^th pick. In his short career as a safety that spanned from 1998-2001, Tilman became an important piece of the Cardinals’ defense. Recognizing his ability to make things happen on the field, the Cardinals offered Tilman a three-year, $3.6 million contract. Tilman turned down the Cardinals’ instead opting to enlist in the Army Rangers. Unfortunately, Tilman was killed in Afghanistan in 2002. Although his career was short, Tilman had proven how valuable he was to Arizona, and we are sure that had the Cardinals had to do it again, they would have picked him a whole lot sooner.
In 1999, the Packers selected Donald Driver at the 213^th pick. An accomplished Olympic-caliber track star, Driver has excelled in the NFL as one of the most consistent wide receivers. In his career so far, Driver has 577 receptions, 7,989 receiving yards and 43 touch downs. Driver definitely turned out to be a bargain for Packers who consider Driver one of their best receivers. He was also known as one of Brett Favre’s best targets.
We fudged the year 2000. Why? It is the year Tom Brady came into the NFL world, and he came into it as pick 199. Yes, how could we omit Tom Brady, the man who led the Patriots to winning three Super Bowls? No need to go into this guy’s stats. We all know he is the quarterback’s quarterback. Plus, he supposedly married a supermodel this year. While this personal relationship has nothing to do with the NFL, it does prove how good life can turn out for even a lower-rated compensatory pick.
In 2001, the Bengals drafted T.J. Houshmandzadeh at pick 204. As a wide receiver for Cincinnati, Houshmandzadeh has shown that he was worth the trouble. Since his career began, Houshmandzadeh has 507 receptions, 7,782 receiving yards and 37 touchdowns. At the end of 2008, the Bengals lost Houshmandzadeh to free agency, and he was promptly signed by Seattle to a five-year, $40 million contract with $15 million guaranteed. We guess he is not so cheap anymore.
In 2002, for their 207^th pick, The Baltimore Ravens selected Chester Taylor. Over the next four years, Taylor served as backup running back for Jamal Lewis. Although his time on the field increased each year, Taylor wanted to be the starter. In 2006, he was traded to the Vikings. In Minnesota, Taylor set a Vikings’ franchise record when he ran for a 95-yard touchdown in a game against the Seahawks. Today, Taylor and his teammate Adrian Peterson, are considered by many to be the toughest running back duo in the NFL
The Giants found David Tyree sitting there for the taking at pick 211 in 2003. Who would have guessed that four years later, this late-selection wide receiver pick would complete the Super Bowl catch that has gone down as one of the most incredible receptions of NFL history? As famous as Tyree is for that catch, it is important to note that he has established himself as a formidable special teams player as well as a gifted wide receiver.
As the 235^th pick, Derrick Ward was the selection for the New York Jets in 2004. Unfortunately, the Jets did not recognize the talent in this player and relegated him to the practice squad. Then, the Giants came calling, and Ward answered. Ward proved to be a consistent player in 2007, but 2008 was his standout year, and his rushing contributions in the Giants’ game over the Panthers solidified the Giants’ home field advantage in the playoffs. In March of 2009, Tampa Bay signed Ward to a four-year, $17 million contract. We have to say that this not too shabby for an ex-practice squad work horse.
Who saw Matt Cassel coming? It was certainly not USC who never started him and barely played him during his stint as a college student. However, he made enough of an impression on scouts that in 2005, Cassel was taken by the Patriots at the No. 230 pick. In 2008, Cassel became the Cinderella quarterback who stepped in and replaced the injured Tom Brady. While many sports experts doubted Cassel’s ability and mental stamina, Cassel proved them wrong and took the Patriots to an 11-5 record. After his adept performance in 2008, the Patriots named him a Franchise quarterback which paved the way for a lucrative deal with the Kansas City Chiefs. He may never have started in a college game, but who cares?
In 2006, the New Orleans Saints selected Marques Colston at the 252nd pick. Although few thought that Colston would win a starting spot on New Orleans’ roster, an unexpected trade of Donte Stallworth to the Eagles that opened up the door for Colston who proved to be a valuable part of the Saints’ offense. As of the end of 2008, Colsten has 215 receptions, 3,000 receiving yards and 24 touchdowns - not bad for a player who most thought would go undrafted.
In 2007, the 250^th pick went to the New York Giants, and they picked Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw was part of the “Earth, Wind and Fire” running back corps of the Giants which also included Derrick Ward and Brandon Jacobs. Bradshaw struggled in his early games with the Giants, but when injuries sidelined Ward and Jacobs, Bradshaw came through for New York averaging 6.1 rushing yards per carry in 2008. While he is still a young player, we are sure that the Giants consider him a good steal

What have we learned from these selections? The infamous "skill" position players such as the quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, etc. seem to be the positions that make a real showing in the later rounds of the draft.

You would think that these positions would be the most heavily scouted and the least likely positions to slip through the cracks. When we compared the list of players who were drafted at the 200-plus mark over the last 10 years to the starters and reserves on the last two pro-bowl teams, several of the names from our list popped up (Driver, Houshmandzadeh).

However, no offensive lineman showed up and only one defensive lineman (Jay Ratliff), who was also drafted the same year as Cassel. Other Pro-Bowlers who we didn’t select for their year were quarterback Derek Anderson in 2005, and in 2006 defensive backs Cortland Finnegan and Antoine Bethea.

The main moral of this little research project is this: The ranks of the 200 plus draftees contain few if any star offensive or defensive lineman. These players do not seem to stay around. So, teams in need of line help better address that need early in the draft, and not save these positions for the late picks. It seems a good gamble that later on down the draft road, they might be able to find a Houshmandzadeh, Driver, Cassel or even a Ward.

Think we missed someone? Vote "other" in our poll and leave us a comment, we'd love to hear from you

NFL Mock Draft: Selections 1 To 32

Donna Cavanagh — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 12:17:09 -0400

The NFL Draft is less than a month away, and like many other football sites, PossessionPoints.com has put together its own mock draft. We will use this mock draft to measure how we think teams performed in the actual draft. We always do the top 100 selections in our draft. This week we will concentrate on round one. Next week, we will present round two, and in two weeks, round three.

The difference between our mock draft and other mock drafts is that the PossessionPoints draft is based upon how we view teams’ needs relative to how they performed last year as measured by our stat.

At this time, we are not going to go into the intricacies of the PossessionPoints stat, but we have made all the team names in the draft active links which will take you to the 2008 team pages on our site.

One other note: Initially, we had left B.J. Raji and Percy Harvin out of the first round because of purported drug test failures.

Since these first reports, we have read that no official results have been made public, and we do not know if these first reports are true.

In the spirit of fairness, we have decided to include these players in our first-round mock draft. If positive drug results do become official, we believe that teams may want to shy away from these players at least in the first round.

So, let’s get to the picks.

1. Detroit Lions – Matt Stafford, quarterback from University of Georgia.

We thought long and hard on this one and even wrote an article last week about whether it was worthwhile to use a first pick on a quarterback. From a PossessionPoints view, Detroit has needs on both sides of the ball as they had the No. 28 offense according to our stat and the No. 32 defense.

The trade, which sent Jay Cutler to conference rivals, the Chicago Bears, may make the Lions’ GM anxious to get his own marquee quarterback. We don’t know if Stafford is the answer, but the Lions’ management may well pull the trigger on this player especially if they can come to terms before the draft.

If they do not take Stafford, we would be perfectly happy if they take OT Jason Smith from Baylor or LB Aaron Curry from Wake Forrest.

2. St. Louis Rams – Aaron Curry, linebacker from Wake Forrest.

As with the Lions, the Rams need help on both sides of the ball as last season they had the No. 29 offense and the No. 28 defense according to PossessionPoints.

Selecting Curry at linebacker addresses their defensive need which we think might be a priority of their new head coach, Steve Spagnolo, who comes to the Rams from the New York Giants where he was defensive coordinator.

3. Kansas City Chiefs – Brian Orakpo, defensive end from Texas.

Kansas City was no power on either offense or defense as they had the No. 24 offense and the No. 28 defense in 2008. Their acquisition of Matt Cassel seems to address their offensive needs, so that is why we went with the defensive player.

4. Seattle Seahawks – Jason Smith, offensive tackle from Baylor.

We ranked Seattle No. 25 offense and No. 31 defense. While they obviously have a defensive need, Seattle should take advantage that Smith is there for the taking at No. 4.

5. Cleveland Browns – Michael Crabtree, wide receiver from Texas Tech.

Last season, Cleveland was the No. 30 offense and the No. 13 defense. We see them working to bolster their offense, and WR Michael Crabtree will be a nice target especially if the talk is true, and the Browns deal Braylon Edwards.

The Browns made some moves to address their offensive line in free agency, but they can never have too many quality offensive linemen. With this in mind, we can see them selecting Eugene Moore or Andre Smith who are both OTs.

6. Cincinnati Bengals – Eugene Monroe, offensive tackle from University of Virginia.

The Bengals had the No. 32 offense and the No. 21 defense, and they lost T.J. Houshmandzadeh to free agency.

Obviously, if Michael Crabtree is available when the Bengals pick, we would not be surprised for them to take Crabtree. Since we think Crabtree will be gone by this time, we believe that Moore, as an OT, will be too good to pass on.

7. Oakland Raiders – Andre Smith, offensive tackle from the University of Alabama.

Oakland was another one of those teams that need a lot of help. They were the No. 31 offense and No. 26 defense according to PossessionPoints. The selection of Smith would address the need for additional protection for their quarterback, JaMarcus Russell.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars – Mark Sanchez, quarterback from USC.

According to the PossessionPoints stat, the Jaguars had the No. 18 offense and No. 22 defense. Although Sanchez might not start right away, we believe his addition to this team would pay off in the long term.

We considered running backs such as Chris Wells and Knowshon Moreno, but we think that the inconsistencies of David Garrard over the past few years warrant the addition of an ultimate replacement.

9. Green Bay Packers – B.J Raji, defensive tackle from Boston College.

Green Bay had the No. 3 offense and No. 16 defense, so we figure going to work on defense is a wise move for the Packers.

As we said earlier, Raji may have a drug cloud hanging over his head, and if he does, the Packers may well take corner back Malcolm Jenkins from Ohio State or defensive ends Everette Brown from Florida State or Aaron Maybin from Penn State.

10. San Francisco 49ers – Chris Wells, running back from Ohio State.

The 49ers are somewhat even in their needs as they had the No. 21 offense and No. 24 defense in 2008. The addition to Chris Wells could give power to the 49ers running attack that Coach Mike Singletary would like.

Given Singletary’s defensive background, we would not be too surprised to see him use his first pick for a defensive player.

11. Buffalo Bills – Malcolm Jenkins, corner back from Ohio State.

The Bills had the No. 23 offense and the No. 18 defense. They bolstered their offense with the addition of Terrell Owens in this offseason. So, we have them addressing their defense with the addition of Jenkins.

12. Denver Broncos – Everette Brown, defensive end from Florida State.

There is no need to re-hash the Broncos’ saga. According to PossessionPoints, they did have the No. 11 offense last season but the No. 30 defense.

We realized they lost some quality on offense with the trade of Cutler, but we see the defense in such need that we have them using their first-round picks for defensive players.

13. Washington Redskins – Jeremy Maclin, wide receiver from University of Missouri.

The Redskins had the No. 27 offense and the No. 7 defense, so we fully expect that Washington will use their first pick on an offensive player.

14. New Orleans Saints – Aaron Maybin, defensive end from Penn State.

The Saints had the No. 5 offense and No. 25 defense. They still have plenty of potent offensive weapons in Drew Brees and Reggie Bush, so we would like to see them work on their defense.

15. Houston Texans – Brian Cushing, linebacker from USC.

The Texans had the No. 6 offense and No. 17 defense which is why we have them selecting a defensive player. However, if by some chance, Chris Wells falls down to No. 15, we would not be surprised to see them pick him up to complement the play of Steve Slaton.

16. San Diego Chargers – Tyson Jackson, defensive end from LSU.

According to PossessionPoints, the Chargers had the No. 1 offense and the No. 15 defense. We see them bolstering up that defense even though we expect the injured Shawne Merriman to return to full strength which will improve their defense stats from last year.

17. New York Jets – Josh Freeman, quarterback from Kansas State.

The Jets had the No. 10 offense and the No. 9 defense. The offense was powered by the now-retired Brett Favre. As with Jacksonville, a new quarterback may not start right away. However, Freeman will become an asset in the long run.

18. Denver Broncos – Rey Maualuga, linebacker from USC.

Denver uses the second pick in the first round which they got in the Cutler trade for another defensive player to continue to address the defensive issue from last season.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Kenny Britt, wide receiver from Rutgers University.

The Bucs had the No. 20 offense and No. 8 defense, so we would like to see them address offensive problems in their first pick. After head coach Raheem Morris sheds his last tears over Josh Freeman not falling to the 19th pick, we think they should take Britt as wide receiver.

Other possibilities at this selection could also be other wide receivers such as Percy Harvin, Darius Heyward-Bay of Maryland or running back Knowshon Moreno.

20. Detroit Lions – James Laurinatis, linebacker from Ohio State.

With Detroit’s second pick in the first round, they should address their No. 32-ranked defense since they did help out their offense with their very first pick.

21. Philadelphia Eagles – Michael Oher, offensive tackle from University of Mississippi.

The Eagles had the No. 8 offense and the No. 3 defense. This team loves drafting offensive linemen. While they have another pick this round, we still think they should go for Oher if he is available, and we are pretty sure they will.

22. Minnesota Vikings – Percy Harvin, wide receiver from University of Florida.

The Vikings had the No. 9 offense and the No. 4 defense. Adding the field-stretching WR from Florida would enhance their offense.

23. New England Patriots – Clay Matthews, linebacker from USC.

The Pats had the No. 4 offense and the No. 11 defense. Although their backup quarterback is now with Kansas City, there is reason to celebrate as they are expecting the return of Tom Brady.

New England’s defense was showing some signs of age, so we think the infusion of Clay Matthews would be excellent at this pick. This move would complete the USC linebacker corp.

24. Atlanta Falcons – Peria Jerry, defensive tackle from University of Mississippi.

Atlanta had the No. 12 offense according to PossessionPoints and the No. 14 defense. We would expect that their offense would improve some with Matt Ryan moving into his second year. We look for the Falcons to try and aid their defense with their very first pick.

25. Miami Dolphins – Darius Heyward-Bey, wide receiver from University of Maryland.

The Dolphins had the No. 13 offense and the No. 10 defense. Heyward-Bey would be a great addition to the Dolphins as he would help them build their wide receiver corp.

26. Baltimore Ravens – Knowshon Moreno, running back from University of Georgia.

The Ravens had the No. 19 offense and No. 1 defense. Their defense remains largely intact although they lost their defensive coordinator to the Jets’ head coaching job. We think Moreno could be an immediate impact should he fall this far to 26.

27. Indianapolis Colts – Vontae Davis, corner back from University of Illinois.

The Colts had the No. 14 PossessionPoints offense and the No. 27 defense. We definitely want to see them use this pick for a defensive player, and we think Davis would make a great fit.

28. Philadelphia Eagles – Brandon Pettigrew, tight end from Oklahoma State.

This is the second pick for the Eagles in the first round, and we see it as their second offensive selection. We think the tall Pettigrew could be a fantastic target for McNabb and help make up for the loss of L.J. Smith at tight end.

29. New York Giants – Hakeem Nicks, wide receiver from University of North Carolina.

The Giants had the No. 2 PossessionPoints offense and the No. 6 defense. They are in pretty good shape on both sides of the ball. With the recent release of Plaxico Burress, the Giants need some help at the wide receiver position to keep their offense strong. We think Hakeem Nicks would be a good pick if he should fall this far.

30. Tennessee Titans – Eben Britton, offensive tackle from University of Arizona.

The Titans were the No. 22 offense and the No. 5 defense. Our priority would be to see them address their offensive issues. Britton as an OT is, in our view, a good fit.

31. Arizona Cardinals – Evander Hood, defensive tackle from University of Missouri.

Arizona had the No. 7 offense and No. 23 defense. Their offense still looks strong, so we look for them to work on their defense. Evander Hood would give much needed depth to their defensive line

32. Pittsburgh Steelers – LeSean McCoy, running back from University of Pittsburgh.

The Steelers had the No. 15 PossessionPoints offense and the No. 2 defense. The Pittsburgh offense was hampered by a lot of injuries, so we think the addition of McCoy would be a nice fit for the Steelers even though they many of the injured running backs should return.

That is it for round one. We will be back next week for round two.

Jay Cutler and the Denver Broncos: The Real Communication Problem

Donna Cavanagh — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 10:59:32 -0400

Many sports pundits have speculated on the reason for the communication meltdown between Jay Cutler and the Broncos, and we are no different. After watching the interview between Cutler and ESPN’s Chris Mortensen, we may have discovered the answer.

In the interview that lasted one minute and 40 seconds, Cutler interjected the term, “you know” into the conversation 29 times. To be more specific, he used “you know” five times on the first question, six on the second, six on the third, and 12 on the fourth and final question. It works out to a bit more than once every four seconds.

Now, you know, we are as much at fault as anyone in using this phrase, but, you know, enough is enough. How was Josh McDaniels to know what Cutler knew when he kept saying “you know” in every sentence?

McDaniels probably thought he knew! How was he to know he didn’t know? Could this lack of true information exchange have been the catalyst that destroyed this fragile relationship between player and coach?

You know how it is. “You know” has become a staple in the English language and used as frequently as the dreaded term “um” when answering a question.

You know though, you would think that a guy coming out of Vanderbilt University, one of the premiere universities in this land, might have taken a public speaking course that would, you know, rid him of this habit.

I know we are poking fun at Cutler who, as you know, has had a tough few weeks. We are not trying to be mean, as we are all human as you know, but we could not resist the opportunity to combine a little humor with our usual statistical analysis.

Just so you know, we at PossessionPoints.com, gathered these statistics in a, you know, unofficial manner and not by our usual mathematical standards. Although we live and die by math, we are always conscious of the fact that football is a game, and we try to highlight any humor when we come across it.

We have embedded the video of the interview below. If you have a different count, well, you know, let us know (if the embedded video doesn't show on your browser here is a link).

NFL Draft: Do QBs Rate the Top Pick?

Donna Cavanagh — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 20:17:09 -0400

As we have all heard and read, the Detroit Lions control the first-overall selection in this year’s draft. This fact sent PossessionPoints.com pondering about the wisdom of the Lions taking a shot at potential “franchise” QB Matt Stafford from the University of Georgia.

Most sports pundits have said this is the obvious choice for the beleaguered Lions.

Since we are working on our mock draft this month as well, we would like to take an analytical look and ask two radical questions: Should the Lions bypass Stafford in favor of a player who could bolster their defense or offensive line, and is it worth taking a quarterback with the first-overall selection of the draft?

In our analysis, we looked at snapshots in time and selected two seasons of quarterbacks, five years apart, to determine whether success equates to a high draft selection. We viewed the top 30 QBs by passing yards from both 2008 and 2003.

In both years, the results were remarkably similar. Both seasons had just three QBs who were chosen with the first overall pick in their draft class. In 2008, these quarterbacks were Peyton Manning, Eli Manning and JaMarcus Russell. Five years earlier in 2003, the three quarterbacks who met this criteria were Peyton Manning, Drew Bledsoeand David Carr.

However, at the other end of the spectrum were the lesser known and undrafted quarterbacks. Five of these QBs were in the top 30 in 2008, six were in the top 30 in 2003, and all were passed over completely in the draft.

The top quarterbacks in 2008 who slipped through the sharp-eyed scouts in their draft years were Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, Jake Delhomme, Jeff Garcia, and Shaun Hill. The 2003 list included Jon Kitna, Jake Delhomme, Jeff Garcia, Jay Fiedler, Kelly Holcomb, and Doug Johnson.

So, we wonder: How much of a sure thing is the first QB taken in the draft? Well, in each of our snapshot years five quarterbacks in the top 30 were among the first QBs taken in their draft class. This is just about the same number as those who were undrafted.

In many drafts, there are three, four, or even five QBs taken in the first round. How many of the top 30 were first-round selections? In 2008, 14 were first-round selections which equates to 47 percent. In 2003, the count was 13 or 43 percent.

We’ve included a chart on the 2008 Quarterbacks, and it is interesting to note that seven of the top 10 were drafted in the top 25 of their class. The 2003 chart is just the opposite as seven of the top 10 were not even in the top 100 of their draft class.

This is just a portion of the analysis we did in trying to decide whether or not the Lions should select Matt Stafford with the very first pick this year.

Our conclusion is that they should not. (Sorry, Detroit fans.) The Lions have many needs, and although they have nine picks overall and five in the top 100, we are not convinced that they should select a quarterback with their first pick.

We might suggest they go one step further and try to trade down to acquire even more selections.

We do not think that Stafford can be classified as a “sure thing” franchise QB at this time. Perhaps he will be in the future, but who knows how he will develop.

If the Lions keep their first pick but pass on Stafford or another quarterback, how will they address their quarterback need?

Detroit not only has a No. 1 overall pick, but they also have the No. 20 pick in the first round. Passing on Stafford might increase the chance that Josh Freeman from Kansas State will still be available at the No. 20 slot. Many scouts view Freeman as the third quarterback in the draft behind Stafford and Mark Sanchez from USC.

Hoping that Freeman will drop to 20 is a risk for the Lions, and they may want to find a way to get ahead of the Bucs who draft at 19. The Bucs’ new head coach, Raheem Morris, was a Kansas State Coach who has seen Freeman first hand and may want him for Tampa Bay.

Freeman is 6’6” and 248 pounds, which makes him the biggest of the quarterbacks that are likely to be drafted in the first round this year. This size might help him behind the Lions line.

If the Lions pass on Stafford with the No. 1 pick, and they do not trade down, how should they use this pick? We say they should go with Offensive Tackle Jason Smith from Baylor or Linebacker Aaron Curry from Wake Forest. Both of these players could be immediate positives and, as we said, the Lions need help on both sides of the ball.

The gist of this analytical tale is this: We acknowledge that the Lions have a quarterback need which has to be addressed somewhere in the draft.

However, we do not necessarily think it is imperative that Detroit use the No. 1 selection for that purpose.

2009 NFL Draft: Who Has the Chips to Wheel and Deal?

Donna Cavanagh — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 13:25:05 -0400

This year’s draft will consist of 256 picks. These picks are enough for eight full rounds, even though there are officially seven rounds in the draft. The other 32 picks are compensatory picks, awarded to teams who have lost players to free agency.

Due to prior trades and other team transactions, draft picks are not evenly distributed throughout the 32 NFL teams. So, each year, PossessionPoints.com analyzes who may be in the best and worst position for making deals for the potential talent they seek to acquire.

Patriots’ fans are crying over their team’s first draft position, but we do not share their tears. Arguably the powerhouse of the decade, New England has the greatest wealth of picks in the 2009 draft totaling 12 overall and six in the top 100.

Now, we do not believe that the Patriots are going to keep 12 rookies on their team. That would be 20 percent of their roster. However, we do expect that the Patriots will find some ways to trade their multiple picks for either established players or higher quality selections.

If they do not, we are certain that teams will be circling the Patriots’ camp, ready to pounce on the discarded players that do not make the New England roster, and this would prove to be a waste of the valuable picks that the Patriots possess this year.

The teams with the next highest number of top 100 picks are the Detroit Lions and the New York Giants who each have five. Overall, the Lions have nine picks in the draft while the Giants have 10. We could easily see nine rookies making the Lions’ squad as they need lots and lots of help in multiple areas.

As the NFC East Champions last season, we do not see the Giants in the same kind of need as Detroit. However, this does not mean that the Giants will easily part with their five top 100 picks, as these selections often yield starting caliber players. If the Giants do make any adjustments, it would probably involve surrounding some of their second-tier picks for veteran players or improved top 100 picks.

Other teams with an abundance of draft picks are the Eagles, Bengals and Cowboys who each have 11 picks overall. Look for these teams to make deals with the have-not teams who are listed below.

First, on our list of have-not teams are the New Orleans Saints, who only have four picks and one pick in the top 100 at No. 14. This may not sound so dire for the Saints, but remember that the Patriots would have had the opportunity to pick six players before New Orleans picks their second. The Saints should be looking to improve their draft status any way they can.

The Browns, Panthers, and Redskins only have five picks each out of the 256 total available. Cleveland may, at least, have some quality as they have three top 100 picks. The Redskins and Panthers each have two top 100 picks. We guess this is the reason why the Redskins were so active in free agency this off-season. This off-season bolstering may give the Redskins a sense of confidence in their roster, without feeling the need to make hasty draft day adjustments.

There are a few teams that sit in the middle of the haves and have-nots in draft selection. These teams have quantity when it comes to picks, but maybe not quality. San Diego and Tampa Bay fall into this category. The Chargers and Bucs both have eight picks overall and two picks in the top 100.

As the chips fall in this year’s draft, it will be interesting to see which teams scurry to make deals and which teams lay back. We have yet to see a draft day that does not involve some last-minute wheeling and dealing between the haves and the have-nots.

The Chart below shows all the teams, their total picks and top 100 picks.

Team	Picks	Top 100	Avg Pick
New England	12	6	120
Philadelphia	11	4	125
Cincinnati	11	4	142
Dallas	11	2	152
N.Y. Giants	10	5	121
Tennessee	10	3	151
Detroit	9	5	107
Green Bay	9	4	116
Miami	9	4	131
Chicago	9	4	134
Denver	9	3	132
San Francisco	9	3	134
Pittsburgh	9	3	148
Seattle	9	3	149
Houston	8	3	117
Indianapolis	8	3	131
Jacksonville	8	3	132
Arizona	8	3	148
San Diego	8	2	129
Tampa Bay	8	2	156
St. Louis	7	3	104
Buffalo	7	3	113
Atlanta	7	3	113
Kansas City	7	2	136
Oakland	6	3	104
Baltimore	6	3	109
N.Y. Jets	6	3	114
Minnesota	6	3	129
Cleveland	5	3	74
Carolina	5	2	129
Washington	5	2	134
New Orleans	4	1	152

Philadelphia Eagles Turn to Draft To Rescue Offseason

Donna Cavanagh — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 14:08:48 -0400

Yes, believe it or not, the NFL draft is once again here. The months of conjecture, hypothesizing, and just plain guessing are coming to a close.

Before all the deals and picks are made, we, at PossessionPoints.com, thought we would add our own data to the mix over the next few weeks to see what holes the teams are looking to fill.

Before we look to the draft, we like to look at a team’s PossessionPoints performance from the previous season to assess their strengths and weaknesses.

Last season, the Eagles were a good PossessionPoints team, both offensively and defensively, and we were not the least bit surprised they made it to the NFC Championship game as a wild card.

In fact, our Preseason Preview issue last year had the Eagles heading to the Super Bowl.

In PossessionPoints, we color-code outstanding performances in green and miserable performances in red.

During the '08-'09 season, the Eagles attained nine green offensive performances and eight green defensive performances. This was balanced against just three red offensive and three red defensive performances.

So, despite all the melodrama surrounding the Donovan McNabb benching and other distractions, the Eagles did prove to be a very good team. (PossessionPoints.com Eagles 2008 Team Page)

According to our proprietary stats and data, if the Eagles left things as they wer, any addition to the offense or defense would have been an asset, though Philadelphia did not cry out for any major changes on either side of the ball.

However, let’s look at what the Eagles have done in the offseason, which, we admit, has changed our view.

The Eagles lost to their defensive leader who was the spirit behind the team, Brian Dawkins, to free agency. Also gone are running back Correll Buckhalter, tight end L.J. Smith, safety Sean Considine, and tackle Tra Thomas.

Free agent tackle John Runyon may also turn out to be a loss for the Eagles.

To compensate for these losses, Philadelphia signed tackle Stacy Andrews from the Bengals, defensive backs Sean Jones from the Browns and Rashad Baker from the Raiders, and running back Leonard Weaver from the Seahawks.

These non-standout NFL names from non-standout NFL teams have not inspired confidence in the Eagles’ loyal fans, who are still reeling from the loss of Dawkins.

The Eagles must now look to the draft if they are to fix their broken wings. Fortunately, they have 11 picks overall in seven rounds, including four picks in the top 100.

We would like to see the Eagles address the running back, tight end, and wide receiver positions on offense. But knowing the Eagles, we would not be surprised to see them draft a lineman before anybody else.

The top-rated tight end, Brandon Pettigrew, out of Oklahoma State is 6’6” and 263 pounds. We know McNabb loves throwing to his tight ends and this guy could be quite the target. He is almost certain to be around when the Eagles pick at 21.

The Eagles could gamble that he will be there at 28, but that may cost them.

If, by some chance, we see that University of Mississippi’s Michael Oher is still there at 21, we would not be disappointed if Philadelphia selected this offensive tackle.

In selecting Pettigrew or Oher, the Eagles may have to take the chance that they would strike gold—like the Bears and Texans did last year with Matt Forte or Steve Slayton—and wait to pick a running back with either their 53rd or 85th pick.

One running back we see that might be gold with a later pick is Rashad Jennings from Liberty University, a non-football power school.

We all know the Eagles love these schools, and sometimes these picks pan out. Just look at Brian Westbrook, a product of basketball powerhouse Villanova.

On the defensive side, Philadelphia may be able to draft someone who has a younger body than Dawkins, even though that body will not replace the emotional leadership that Dawkins provided.

We can see the Eagles going for a safety selection with their 53rd or 85th pick.

Some of the prime candidates who could be around then would be William Moore of Missouri, Patrick Chung of Oregon, and Chip Vaughn, known to be a big-hitting enforcer, of Wake Forest.

If Moore is available, he would be our favorite pic. But if not, we would like them to see the Eagles pick up Vaughn at 85 or later.

The Jay Cutler Effect: How a Trade Could Impact the Broncos and Other Teams

Donna Cavanagh — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 18:54:57 -0400

Unless you are an NFL fan who has been out of the country the last few weeks, you have heard about the drama surrounding the Broncos’ new coach, Josh McDaniels, and star quarterback, Jay Cutler.

While PossessionPoints.com does not want to participate in rumor mongering, we want to address the impact that the addition of Cutler would have on a few of the NFL teams supposedly clamoring for a shot at the Pro Bowl player.

One of the most popular rumored destinations for Cutler is the New York Jets. With the final (dare we say it?) retirement of Brett Favre, the Jets find themselves in need of a strong-armed quarterback.

Looking at the PossessionPoints offensive data for the Jets for 2008, you will see that the Jets’ offensive performance mirrored Favre’s arm health. As Favre’s arm problems grew, the team’s fortunes fell.

Before Favre threw his first pass for the Jets, PossessionPoints conjectured that a Jets offense with Favre might improve significantly with his addition.

We upped our forecast for the Jets for the 2008 season to 9-7, which is exactly how they finished.

It is true that the loss of Favre leaves a gaping hole that the Jets have yet to fill. Could the addition of Cutler to the Jets have just as much of a dramatic effect as Favre's acquisition did?

We absolutely believe that Cutler’s addition would not only meet the Favre yardstick, but would exceed it as well.

The problem with the Jets’ scenario is this: They have nothing to offer the Broncos that would make up for the loss of Cutler.

Another team we hear in the mix is the Cleveland Browns. To us, this is an interesting scenario as the Browns have two quarterbacks that could potentially be stars in their own right.

However, they lack the credentials of a Cutler. You can tell by looking at the Browns’ offensive production from last year. The gross amount of red in the chart below indicates that their offense was woeful at best last season as they failed to score more than 10 points in nine of their regular season games.

In the PossessionPoints.com view, a trade for either Anderson or Quinn would result in an improvement for the Browns but a negative adjustment for the Broncos.

We have included the 2008 team PossessionPoints charts for the Jets, Browns, and Broncos below. We would love to speculate on how a Cutler deal would affect the Bucs and Lions, but we will save that for another article.