Beat Baseball All Summer

Exclusive Report Now Ready!

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 00:27:00 -0700

Your exclusive report is now available by clicking on the baseball at BEAT BASEBALL ALL SUMMER

The site has a few new twists. I have added a few games that you can play for FREE! Take a look at beat the bookie. In this game, you can take out your frustrations by punching, kicking, and hitting the bookie with a baseball bat! When it doesn't go your way, return here to vent!

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Thank you,

Thomas "Tommy Boy" Burkett

Tommy Boy's Triple Play 6/19/2009

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 00:17:00 -0700

Today's Overview

There are a full 15 games with which to choose. Although I have some concerns about the application of this formula with respect to interleague play, I will apply it for the purposes of a continuous modeling. After analyzing the numbers, we find that exactly 5 games meet or exceed the consideration criteria. Of these, 2 games have a negative correlation with the simple back-tested system. And one game, the Mets game, has a differential that is too high to be a viable candidate for the simple system.

Ranked in order of odds differential, the two remaining games are as follows:

1. Marlins 59 differential
2. Blue Jays 38 differential

Expanding the Field

In order to meet the requirements of today’s triple play, we must expand the field to include the smallest negative simple test differential. The Brewers meet this definition as this game has only a slight negative correlation at -3.

Today's Picks

1. Blue Jays -110 line
2. Marlins +125 line
3. Brewers +103 line

Bonus Pick

There is one bonus pick for today’s games. The NY Mets have a BRI differential of +200. This differential is too high to warrant a play from the triple play. However, it is an extremely solid candidate for the bonus pick today. (Especially given the positive correlation with the natural line)

For the full breakdown of today's games, visit Beat Baseball All Summer. Enjoy all the benefits of today's breakdown! Forward this to all of your friends and ask them to register.

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Also visit BASEBALL BRI to get a different spin on the BRI ratings. It is broken down to calculate the percentage chances of a team winning. It is not directly associated with gambling. It is just a fun way to get a new slant on today's games!

How Does this Work?

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 00:10:00 -0700

Several of you have indicated that you have some confusion following the guidance of the posts. Therefore, I am reprinting some of the information from the full daily report in an effort to clarify the means and methods of the BRI index.

Goals

The Goal of this Program is to systematically reduce the house edge in baseball wagering. To do this, it is vital to understand our competition, the bookie. In general, the book wants to preserve their income. To preserve their income (or rake), they must set a line such that the money will be split appropriately on each side of the game. That is a very important point. That is all they want to accomplish.

The Edge

In order to earn a profit we, as gambler, need realize only one goal. We must be able to invest our resources in such a manner that the teams in which we bet have a greater chance of winning then our cost would necessitate. That is the goal of this program. With the BRI, I have created a formula that attempts to predict a team’s odds of winning a particular contest. These odds are calculated using several criteria. Effective Win Rate, MoRate, ST(Rate), and StatRate, are coupled using an algorithm to calculate the BRI, Burkett Rating Index. These rates are then compared against the actual line to calculate the differential. (the greater the BRI differential, the greater the potential ROI)

Reminder

Although it would be nice to win every game, the goal is to find a way to overcome the spread and exploit it all Summer. We don't expect to win every game.

Just Beat Baseball All Summer!

Please Help Keep this correspondence free and check out some of my sponsors offers!

Yesterday's Results (results of 6/17/2009)

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 00:05:00 -0700

Yesterday's Results

The BRI system had another successful day yesterday. That marks 3 successive profitable days. The record was 2-1 and all three selections were underdogs yesterday. The Bonus Pick came in as well. Yesterday’s bonus was the Washington Nationals. A huge dog on the road at the Yankees, they returned a handsome price. However, the discrepancy was so high in this game that we disregarded it for the triple play. As we do each time the BRI exceeds 150. The Dodgers were our lone loss. They nearly came back. Having the lead man on in the bottom of the ninth in a one run game, the prospects of the sweep for the day looked imminent. However, they were unable to get him across the plate. It was the smallest wager on the triple play however. The total risk for the night was $378.26 and the total net profit was $214.54. Our current system balance is $1475.41. The starting balance was $1000.00 and is reset to $1000.00 every time we reach $2500.00

You can now download the full report by clicking here. Just click on the baseball at the top to view the full detail!

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Thank you,

Thomas "Tommy Boy" Burkett

The New Full Report is Ready - 6/18/2009 Games

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 23:56:00 -0700

The new full report is ready.

Just visit us at Beat Baseball All Summer to get the new report. As always you will find the report by clicking on the picture of the baseball once you reach the site!

Today's Action

There are a full 13 games with which to choose. Although I have some concerns about the application of this formula with respect to interleague play, I will apply it for the purposes of a continuous modeling. After analyzing the numbers, we find that exactly 5 games meet or exceed the consideration criteria. Of these only 1 truly passes the second test of conflict resolution with the simple back-tested system. Again, the Toronto Blue Jays warrant a play on odds alone. The early line on the game is Toronto +140. Both the simple system and the BRI suggest that Toronto should be a slight favorite in the game.

Expanding the Field

The goals inherent to the ‘triple play’ mandate the addition of 2 plays. Feel free to modify for your own system. However, my rules stipulate that I will pick the two games by selecting the two that have the smallest negative impact from the simple system. The two additions to the plays become the Mets and the Rangers. The Mets conflict is the smallest at -32.52. The Rangers have the second least simple odds negativity at -33.78. This results in the following triple play!

_Today's Picks_
1. Mets -110
2. Rangers -174
3. Blue Jays +140

For the proper weighting factors, $/$ on each of the three games, you must download the full report by clicking the baseball at http://beatbaseballallsummer.blogspot.com

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Thank You,

Thomas "Tommy Boy" Burkett

World Series Highlights

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 22:49:00 -0700

The 1959 World Series is now being featured. Watch the World Series in Review. Will history repeat itself?

Tommy Boy's Triple Play - 6/17/2009

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 22:39:00 -0700

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Your exclusive report is now ready CLICK HERE to download the full report absolutely free. Just click the picture of the baseball at the top of the homepage to start the download. For your convenience, it is formatted for Adobe Acrobat Viewer in a PDF File. If this format is unacceptable, please leave a comment at Beat Baseball All Summer and I will save in additional formats as well. But please, you owe it to your own handicapping schemes to check out the Full Report!

Summary Suggestions for Games 6/17/2009

BRI Selections

Pick & Rank Line Diff Weight
Game 1 Blue Jays 113 70.21778 8.379605
Game 2 Brewers 100 56.85508 7.54023
Game 3 Dodgers -155 25.92947 5.092098

Baseball Portfolio Risk
Pick & Rank Risk Amt
Game 1 Blue Jays 150.85
Game 2 Brewers 135.74
Game 3 Dodgers 91.67

There are two bonus picks today which are available in the always free Exclusive Daily Report! Download it right now!

Tommy Boy’s Triple Play Beat Baseball All Summer

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 22:25:00 -0700

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Your exclusive report is now ready CLICK HERE to download the full report absolutely free. For your convenience, it is formatted for Adobe Acrobat. If this format is unacceptable, please leave a comment at Beat Baseball All Summer and I will save in additional formats as well. But please, you owe it to your own handicapping schemes to check out the Full Report!

Summary Suggestions for Games 6/16/2009

BRI Selections

Pick & Rank		Line	Diff
Game 1	Blue Jays	175	43.75
Game 2	Marlins	150	28.54
Game 3	Rays	105	37.18

Baseball Portfolio Risk

Pick & Rank		Risk Amt
Game 1	Blue Jays	122.05
Game 2	Marlins	79.62
Game 3	Rays	103.72

The picks are free see the full detail by clicking the Exclusive Daily Report! Download it right now!

Tommy Boys ‘not so triple’ Play – 6/15/2009

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 23:02:00 -0700

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Your exclusive report is now ready CLICK HERE to download the full report absolutely free. For your convenience, it is formatted for Word 2007. If this format is unacceptable, please leave a comment at Beat Baseball All Summer and I will save in additional formats as well. You owe it to your wallet to check out the Full Report!

Summary Suggestions for Games 6/15/2009

BRI Selections

Pick & Rank				Line	Diff
Game 1			Giants	100	76.291667

Baseball Portfolio Risk

Pick & Rank			Risk Amt
Game 1			Giants	$113.11

There detailed analysis is available in the always free Exclusive Daily Report! Download it right now!

Goose’s Gold Expert Horse Handicapping ---- For the Low, Low, Price of FREE ---- That’s right just enter your email address and submit

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 10:29:00 -0700

Click on the banner to start receiving Free Horse Handicapping Advice Each and Every Day!

Hey Horse Racing Enthusiasts,

Did you know that you can get expert handicapping analysis absolutely free each and every day? Visit Goose's Gold!

Just enter your email address in the space to the right and submit. Then just check your email to finalize the subscription. It is that easy. And don't worry, it is spam free. You won't get junk mail, just the best handicapping advice for free!

The New PDF Format Beat Baseball All Summer Tommy Boy’s Triple Play

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 00:46:00 -0700

Hey Triple Play Fans, you can now receive your EXCLUSIVE DAILY REPORT in
PDF format. So now, it is even easier to Beat Baseball All Summer.

Just Click Here to Get the Report in PDF Format and you can read the report in Adobe Acrobat!

Yesterday’s Results Beat Baseball All Summer! 6/14/2009 Results of 6/13/2009

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 23:45:00 -0700

Did you know that you can now watch World Series Highlights from yesteryear right from Beat Baseball All Summer?

Just click on the videos on the right hand side of the page and you can start watching right away.

The best part is…It's always free. Please, tell your friends and………

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As a bonus to all of you loyal Beat Baseball All Summer Subscribers,

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Yesterday's Results

Tommy Boy Differential							Tommy Boy Differential
Tommy Boy Differential							Tommy Boy Differential
Baseball Betting Model Portfolio							Baseball Betting Model Portfolio
			$957.20	Opening Balance 6/13/2009
			$287.16	Total Risk for the Day = 30% of Balance
Team	Line	Diff	Risk $				Results	Gain	Loss	P/L
Marlins	120	85.52	$103.38	Game 1	June 13 2009		W	$124.06
Phillies	-120	97.07	$117.35	Game 2			L		117.35
Pirates	-115	54.95	$66.43	Game 3			W	$57.76
						Totals		$181.83	$117.35	$64.48
						New Balance For 6/14				$1,021.68

The system went 2-1 yesterday. The sole loss came from the Phillies. Their matchup with Boston was not exactly a pitcher's duel as the Red Sox put up 11 to win 11-6. En masse, the total portfolio risk of $287.16 returned a profit on the day of $64.48. Let's keep the streak alive in the long term.

Tommy Boy’s Triple Play Beat Baseball All Summer 6/15/2009

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 23:30:00 -0700

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Summary Suggestions for Games 6/15/2009

BRI Selections

Pick & Rank				Line	Diff
Game 1		Giants		100	76.291667

Baseball Portfolio Risk

Pick & Rank			Risk Amt
Game 1		Giants	$113.11

There detailed analysis is available in the always free Exclusive Daily Report! Download it right now!

Tommy Boy’s Triple Play Beat Baseball All Summer Daily Edition Saturday June 13, 2009

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 23:15:00 -0700

Today's Triple Play Exclusive Report is Ready for Download, CLICK HERE to download.
The best part is...it's absolutely FREE!
Check out my sponsors offers by clicking the google ads.
That way it can always be free!

Summary

BRI Selections 6/13/2009

Pick & Rank		Line
Game 1	Marlins	120
Game 2	Phillies	-120
Game 3	Pirates	-115

Baseball Portfolio Plays
6/13/2009

Pick & Rank		Risk Amt
Game 1	Marlins	$103.38
Game 2	Phillies	$117.35
Game 3	Pirates	$66.43

Goals

The Goal of this Program is to systematically reduce the house edge in baseball wagering. To do this, it is vital to understand our competition, the bookie. In general, the sportsbooks want to preserve their income. To preserve their income (or rake), they must set a line such that the money will be split appropriately on each side of the game. That is a very important point. That is all they want to accomplish.

The Edge

In order to overcome their goals, we must be able to invest our resources in such a manner that the teams in which we bet have a greater chance of winning then the line would suggest. And that is the goal of this program. With the BRI, I have created a formula that attempts to predict a team's odds of winning a particular contest. These odds are calculated using several criteria. Effective Win Rate, MoRate, ST(Rate), and StatRate, are coupled using an algorithm to predict rates of success. These rates are then compared against the actual line to calculate the differential. (the greater the differential, the greater the potential ROI)

Today's Overview

With that said, let's take a look at the card for today. There are a full 15 games with which to choose. Although I have some concerns about the application of this formula with respect to interleague play, I will apply it for the purposes of a continuous modeling. After analyzing the numbers, we find that exactly 4 games meet or exceed the consideration criteria.

Ranked in order of odds differential, the four games are as follows:

1. Phillies -120 line +150.07 BRI differential

2. Marlins +120 line +85.52 BRI differential

3. Pirates -115 line +54.95 BRI differential

4. Reds -105 line +29.38 BRI differential

Narrowing the Field

Due to the mismatch with the simple system test, I am throwing out the Reds. Although it meets the criteria for the Modified Algorithm, the simple test isn't large enough a discrepancy for action. So, I can remove that one and result in the triple play!

Today's Picks

1. Marlins +120 line

2. Phillies -120 line

3. Pirates -115 line

Bonus Pick

There are no bonus picks for 6/13/2009. Although the Phillies have a differential greater than 120 and, as such would qualify for the bonus. They meet the guidelines of a rule-breaker. They have a positive correlation with the back-tested simple system.

Yesterday's Results

The system went 1-2 yesterday. The Mets lost in
the bottom of the ninth on a fielding error with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. Having entered the bottom half of the inning with the outright lead this was most frustrating. The other loss came from the Seattle Mariners. They jumped out to a 3-0 lead but could not hold on to escape with the win. The sole win was the Tampa Bay Rays who rallied to win late.

Reminder

Although it would be nice to win every game, the goal is to find a way to beat the juice and exploit it all Summer. We don't expect to win every game.

Just Beat Baseball All Summer!

Please Help Keep this correspondence free and check out some of my sponsors offers!

For those of you following the following the Model Portfolio, here are the suggested risk levels for the games of 6/13/2009:

Tommy Boy Differential							Tommy Boy Differential
Tommy Boy Differential							Tommy Boy Differential
Baseball Betting Model Portfolio							Baseball Betting Model Portfolio
			$957.20	Opening Balance 6/13/2009
			$287.16	Total Risk for the Day = 30% of Balance
Team	Line	Diff	Risk $				Results	Gain	Loss	P/L
Marlins	120	85.52	$103.38	Game 1	June 12 2009
Phillies	-120	97.07	$117.35	Game 2
Pirates	-115	54.95	$66.43	Game 3
						Totals				$0.00
						New Balance For 6/14

Please keep this subscription free and check out some of my sponsors offers both above and below this post.

Thank you for your continued support,

Thomas Burkett

Thomas "Tommy Boy" Burkett

Tommy's Triple Play -- 6/12/2009

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 21:24:00 -0700

Summary

The Burkett GRI results in the following triple play picks for 6/12/2009:

	Team	Line	Diff
Game 1	Mariners	125	79.5
Game 2	Mets	175	63.95
Game 3	Rays	-240	31.53

If you are following the Model Baseball Portfolio, the following risk levels are suggested for today's games:

Game 1	Mariners	$168.00
Game 2	Mets	$135.14
Game 3	Rays	$66.63

Note: This is based on a starting balance on the day of $1232.59. The daily risk total equals %30.00 of the available bankroll. The bankroll suggestion is to reset the balance to $1000.00 when the balance reaches $2500.00.

To Visit the website for previous results please click below:

Goals

The Goal of this Program is to systematically reduce the house edge in baseball. To do this, you need to understand the goals of your competition, the house. The sportsbooks want to preserve their vig. To preserve their rake, they must set a line such that the money will be split appropriately on each side of the game. That is a very important point. That is all they want to accomplish.

The Edge

In order to overcome their goals, we must be able to invest our resources in such a manner that the teams in which we bet have a greater chance of winning then the line would suggest. And that is the goal of this program. We have created a formula that will predict a teams odds of winning a particular ballgame. These odds are calculated using several criteria. Effective Win Rate, MoRate, ST(Rate), and StatRate, are coupled using an appication algorithm to predict success rates. These rates are then compared against the actual line to calculate the differential. Theoretically, larger differentials create a better investing opportunity. These games will have the greatest spread between current price and intrinsic value.

Today's Overview

There are a full 15 games with which to choose. After analyzing the numbers, we find that exactly 9 games have a GRI that exceeds the requirement of 25 basis points of line discrepancy or greater. Of those, 4 games have an internal conflict that removes it from consideration for the triple play. A fifth game has a discrepancy that is too large for consideration for the triple play for today. This gives it the title of bonus pick.

Ranked in order of odds differential, the four games are as follows.

1. Mariners_, +125 line, +79.50 differential

2. Cardinals_, -105 line, +71.41 differential

3. Mets____, +175 line, +63.95 differential

4. Rays_____, -240 line, +31.53 differential

Narrowing the Field

One team needs removed from consideration to select the day's triple play. I am removing the St. Louis Cardinals. Inside the numbers there is near conflict. The simple backtested system shows the slightest edge in this particular game. The other three have much greater spreads.

Today's Picks

______TEAMS___________LINE__DIFF_

1. Mariners_, +125 line, +79.50 differential

2. Mets____, +175 line, +63.95 differential

3. Rays_____, -240 line, +31.53 differential

Bonus Pick

The Bonus Picks are 3-1 so far this month. As previously mentioned, there is one game that meets the criteria for the bonus pick. The Burkett GRI line differential is 159.76 for this game. This exceeds the high range of consideration for the triple play. But as many of you have suggested, these have potential outside the confines of this program.

Bonus Pick for 6/12/2009

The Cincinatti Reds have an early line of -105. This line creates a differential of 159.75. Everything being equal this would be an all star play.

Yesterday's Results

The triple play was 2-1 yesterday. Yesterday was rare because we had two bonus picks which we split. Had you followed the model portfolio you would have profited $232.59.

Reminder:

Although it would be nice to win every game, the goal is to find a way to beat the juice and exploit it all Summer. We don't expect to win every game.

Just Beat Baseball All Summer!

And please don't forget to check out some of my sponsors offers! And please suggest this site to your friends so they can get the same advice you continue to get for free each and every day!

Click on the Image Below to View the statistical breakdown for Today's Games!

Betting Strategy For June 11, 2009

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 12:53:00 -0700

The Betting Strategy

The Following Graphic illustrates the model betting strategy for the three picks for the evening. This strategy weights 30 percent of the opening balance over the 3 system picks. Let's follow this portfolio all season long and find the results!

Tommy Boy's Triple Play --- 6/11/2009

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 22:31:00 -0700

Goals

The Goal of this Program is to systematically reduce the house edge in baseball. To do this, you need to understand the goals of your competition, the house. The sportsbooks want to preserve their vig. To preserve their rake, they must set a line such that the money will be split appropriately on each side of the game. That is a very important point. That is all they want to accomplish.

The Edge

In order to overcome their goals, we must be able to invest our resources in such a manner that the teams in which we bet have a greater chance of winning then the line would suggest. And that is the goal of this program. We have created a formula that will predict a teams odds of winning a particular ballgame. These odds are calculated using several criteria. Effective Win Rate, MoRate, ST(Rate), and StatRate, are coupled using an appication algorithm to predict success rates. These rates are then compared against the actual line to calculate the differential. Theoretically, the greater the differential the greater the ROI.

Today's Overview

There are a full 14 games with which to choose. After analyzing the numbers, we find that exactly 4 games meet the criteria for consideration.

Ranked in order of odds differential, the three games are as follows.

1. Pirates_, +155 line, +44.72 differential
2. Mariners_, +140 line, +36.95 differential
3. Astros__, +127 line, +35.58 differential
4. Giants__, +143 line, +29.43 differential

Narrowing the Field

Due to the mismatch with the simple system test, I am throwing out the Mariners. Although it meets the criteria for the Modified Algorithm. The simple test isn't large enough a discrepancy for action. So, I can remove that one and result in the triple play!

Today's Picks

______TEAMS___________LINE__DIFF_
1. Pirates_, +155 line, +44.72 differential
2. Astros__, +127 line, +35.58 differential
3. Giants__, +143 line, +29.43 differential

Bonus Pick

The Bonus Picks are 2-0 so far this month. This is a rare day indeed. I am making 2 bonus picks. Remember these are games whose differential exceeds the guidelines set forth in the standard picks. When the numbers get this skewed, I have the belief that the bookmakers may in fact KNOW something that I don't.

Bonus Pick #1

The Tampa Bay Rays have an early line of -145. This line creates a differential of 163.19. Everything being equal this would be an all star play.

Bonus Pick #2

The Detroit Tigers are also a statistical underbet for tomorrow. The early line on the game is -123. This results in a differential of 136.57.

Yesterday's Results

Including the bonus pick, we went 3-1 on the Triple Play from 6/10/2009. The lone blemish was, drumroll please, Oakland. The bonus pick was the Boston Red Sox. Remember, the bonus pick will be games that are too strong a discrepancy for consideration under the standard triple play.

Reminder:

Although it would be nice to win every game, the goal is to find a way to beat the juice and exploit it all Summer. We don't expect to win every game.

Just Beat Baseball All Summer!

And please don't forget to check out some of my sponsors offers!

Click on the Image Below to View the statistical breakdown for Today's Games!

RSS Hugger

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 13:47:00 -0700

To find new subscribers to your RSS Feeds, you must check out RSS Hugger. It is extremely easy to set up. And now for the best part.......it is absolutely FREE!

Tommy's Triple Play -- 6/10/2009

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Tue, 9 Jun 2009 23:37:00 -0700

Goals

The Goal of this Program is to systematically reduce the house edge in baseball. To do this, you need to understand the goals of your competition, the house. The sportsbooks want to preserve their vig. To preserve their rake, they must set a line such that half of the gamblers will bet on the home team and the other half will take the road team. That is a very important point. That is all they want to accomplish.

The Edge

In order to overcome their goals, we must be able to invest our resources in such a manner that the teams in which we bet have a greater chance of winning then the line would suggest. And that is the goal of this program. We have created a formula that will predict a teams odds of winning a particular ballgame. These odds are calculated using several criteria. Effective Win Rate, MoRate, ST(Rate), and StatRate, are coupled using an appication algorithm to predict success rates. These rates are then compared against the actual line to calculate the differential. Theoretically, the greater the differential the greater the ROI.
Today's Overview

There are a full 15 games with which to choose. After analyzing the numbers, we find that exactly 3 games meet the criteria for consideration.

Ranked in order of odds differential, the three games are as follows.

1. Athletics_, -135 line, +130.03 differential
2. Tigers____, -135 line, +034.13 differential
3. Reds______, -120 line, +024.72 differential

Narrowing the Field

Three games meet the total test. They are in the Range of Acceptability for our consideration. The triple play will stand. The only suggested alternative could be to Substitute the Tigers with the Red Sox. Both Oakland and the Reds have the additional advantage of having an unadjusted differential that exceeds the statistical test. The Tigers only meet after adjustments.

Today's Picks

______TEAMS___________LINE__DIFF_
1. Athletics_, -135 line, +130.03 differential
2. Tigers____, -135 line, +034.13 differential
3. Reds______, -120 line, +024.72 differential

Bonus Pick

The Bonus Pick for Today is the Boston Red Sox. The differential +254.55 was too great for consideration in the Triple Play. However you are free to use this selection as well. For me, it is a little too skewed to be feasible, but so far the bonus picks for this high a differential are 1-0.
Yesterday's Results

We went 2-1 on the Triple Play from 6/9/2009. Cincinatti won 3-2, Dodgers won 6-4. The lone blemish was Oakland. There was no bonus pick on Tuesday

Remember, the bonus pick will be games that are too strong a discrepancy for consideration.

Reminder:

Although it would be nice to win every game, the goal is to find a way to beat the juice and exploit it all Summer. We don't expect to win every game.

Just Beat Baseball All Summer!

And please don't forget to check out some of my sponsors offers!

Click on the Image Below to View the statistical breakdown for Today's Games!

Watch MLB for Free!

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Tue, 9 Jun 2009 10:08:00 -0700

Watch MLB Games for Free!

Tommy Boy's Triple Play 6-9-2009

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Mon, 8 Jun 2009 22:09:00 -0700

Today's Overview

New Series Begin Today. It is a full card. There are a full 15 games with which to choose. After analyzing the numbers, we find that exactly seven games meet the criteria for consideration.

Ranked in order of odds differential, the seven games are as follows.

1. Athletics, -108 line, +77.19 differential
2. Phillies_, +155 line, +65.75 differential
3. Reds_____, -120 line, +52.62 differential
4. Royals___, +180 line, +46.67 differential
5. Pirates__, +180 line, +43.95 differential
6. Tigers___, +140 line, +39.77 differential
7. Dodgers__, -210 line, +37.50 differential

Narrowing the Field

Three games meet the total test. These teams have the statistical edge for the player to win in the long run. They also meet the edge criteria of starting pitching leadership, and regressive momentum.

Today's Picks

______TEAMS___________LINE__DIFF_
1. Oakland Athletics, -108, 77.19
2. Cincinatti Reds__, -120, 52.62
3. LA Dodgers_______, -210, 37.50

Yesterday's Results

We went 1-2 on the Triple Play from 6/7/2009. Both losses were extra innings losses. There was no bonus pick on Sunday

Remember, the bonus pick will be games that are too strong a discrepancy for consideration.

Reminder:

Although it would be nice to win every game, the goal is to find a way to beat the juice and exploit it all Summer. We don't expect to win every game.

Just Beat Baseball All Summer!

And please don't forget to check out some of my sponsors offers!

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The Triple Play -- June 8, 2009

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Mon, 8 Jun 2009 08:54:00 -0700

Yesterday's Results

We went 1-2 on the Triple Play from 6/7/2009. Both losses were extra innings losses. There was no bonus pick on Sunday

Remember, the bonus pick will be games that are too strong a discrepancy for consideration.

Today's Overview

Monday is usually a fairly light day, and today is no different. We find only 9 games on the card. After analyzing the numbers, we find that 2 games meet the criteria for consideration, the third pick stretches our fundamentals. But, it completes the triple play.

Ranked in order of odds differential, the 3 are as follows.
1. Oakland Athletics -142, 43.19
2. Arizona D'backs +155, 30.86
3. Texas Rangers -155, 14.70

Narrowing the Field

There is no need to narrow the field today. These three picks are solid!

Today's Picks

1. Oakland Athletics -142, 43.19
2. Arizona D'backs +155, 30.86
3. Texas Rangers -155, 14.70

Reminder:

Although it would be nice to win every game, the goal is to find a way to beat the juice and exploit it all Summer. We don't expect to win every game.

Just Beat Baseball All Summer!

And please don't forget to check out some of my sponsors offers!

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Triple Play for Games on June 7, 2009

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Sat, 6 Jun 2009 21:11:00 -0700

Yesterday's Results

We went 2-1 on the Triple Play from 6/6/2009. Nearly a sweep, but we lost the Rangers game in grand fashion proving they deserved to be nearly a 2-1 dog. There was no bonus pick on Saturday

Remember, the bonus pick will be games that are too strong a discrepancy for consideration.

Today's Overview

Again today, we find 15 games on the card. It's Sunday and we are going to be concluding the majority of the series today! Lot's of action on the card today. After analyzing the numbers, we find that fully eight games meet the criteria for consideration.

Ranked in order of odds differential, the eight are as follows:

1. SD Padres + 145 70.93
2. Oak A's -115 53.75
3. FL Marlins +127 48.03
4. MIL Brewers +120 43.39
5. Sea Mariners -135 42.34
6. KC Royals +220 34.81
7. Cin Reds +105 32.27
8. Tex Rangers +175 31.00

Narrowing the Field

Starting pitching is enough to offset the spread discrepancies in two of the games. The KC Royals and the FL Marlins do not have competitive pitching to start the games tomorrow. That does not mean that I recommend their opponents, I just can't warrant a play on those games. The Padres are posting Geer vs Garen. Arguably they are close enough statistically. Oakland boasts a battle of unbeatens and have homefield. There is no reason to kick out Oakland in this one. The Brewers have a clear shot against an unproven although I am a little fearful of this matchup! I will skip. Slowey is strong enough for me to skip the Mariners play. The Reds have a clear favorite on the mound. The Rangers are easy for me to pass on tomorrow.

Today's Picks

1. SD Padres + 145 70.93
2. Oak A's -115 53.75
3. Cin Reds +105 32.27

Reminder:

Although it would be nice to win every game, the goal is to find a way to beat the juice and exploit it all Summer. We don't expect to win every game.

Just Beat Baseball All Summer!

And please don't forget to check out some of my sponsors offers!

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Triple Play June 6, 2009

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Sat, 6 Jun 2009 06:21:00 -0700

Yesterday's Results

We went 2-1 on the Triple Play from 6/5/2009. Nearly a sweep, but we lost the Mariners game in extra innings to end the evening. Including the bonus pick, we went 3-1.

Remember, the bonus pick will be games that are too strong a discrepancy for consideration.

Today's Overview

Again today, we find 15 games on the card. After analyzing the numbers, we find that fully seven games meet the criteria for consideration.

1. Rangers + 175
2. Blue Jays -175
3. Reds +110
4. Brewers +140
5. Padres +107
6. A's -125
7. Mariners -110

Narrowing the Field

Looking into the numbers all we find is the trend towards overweighting starting pitching. Today's discrepancies on the mound are very slight so let's just get the biggest bang for the buck today. Go with the biggest line discrepancies! You might want to tweak the result and trade-off of the Brewers.

Today's Picks

Seattle Mariners
Milwaukee Brewers
Texas Rangers

Reminder:

Although it would be nice to win every game, the goal is to find a way to beat the juice and exploit it all Summer. We don't expect to win every game.

Just Beat Baseball!

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Beat Baseball Picks

noreply@blogger.com (trburk) — Fri, 5 Jun 2009 07:23:00 -0700

Todays Picks ---- 6/5/2009

The Triple Play

The goal is to systematically beat the house take. It would be great to win every game, but all you can do is overcome the house advantage. Here are the three plays in the sweet spot.

1. New York Mets +110 at the Washington Nationals
2. Seattle Mariners -150 vs the Minnesota Twins
3. LA Angels + 155 at the Detroit Tigers

The spread on the Mets is 47.50
The spread on the Mariners is 40.12
The spread on the Angels is 35.00

The Toronto Game is off by 120.09 which makes it the largest discrepancy from statistical norms today. However, this exceeds the sweet spot. But that makes it today's bonus pick

Bonus Pick: Toronto Blue Jays +125 vs the KC Royals

Double Click the image below to see the entire day's reference table: