This is the 81st game score of -8 or worse since the start of the 1920 season. Four of them happened last season between April 14th and May 31st, two of them by Tanner Houck. Bradley Blalock and Jesus Luzardo were the other two.

Crochet is an excellent pitcher, so one has to wonder if he is hurt.

The Twins lead the Red Sox 11-3 in the top of the third inning.

Naylor got off to a terrible start, 6 for 59 entering the game with six walks and no extra-base hits. We’ll see if this game means his slump is over.

Enjoy!

Through two full weeks the majors average 8.65 runs per game compared to 8.55 runs per game in 2025. That’s a nice bump that comes from more batters reaching base. Home runs are down slightly, from 2.07 per game to 1.91 per game. Other hits, however, are up, 13.71 per game versus 13.46 per game last season. Walks are up as well, from 6.90 per game to 7.55 per game. Hits are up despite strikeouts also rising, from 16.91 per game to 17.24 per game. Overall, 23.99 batters per game are reaching base versus 23.23 per game in 2025.

It seems batters are being more selective, and maybe the higher BABIP implied by the above means batters are also looking to hit against shifts? I hope that’s true.

Last week saw the majors produce 8.45 runs per game, with strikeouts much lower that the first week and a half of the season at 16.19 per game. That seems low, but if you look at the study that goes back to 2015, it’s actually a pretty good week two.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.296, 0.692 — Andy Pages batting vs. David Peterson.
• 0.269, 0.665 — Amed Rosario batting vs. Yusei Kikuchi.
• 0.268, 0.679 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Nathan Eovaldi.
• 0.266, 0.658 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. David Peterson.
• 0.265, 0.649 — Teoscar Hernandez batting vs. David Peterson.
• 0.265, 0.670 — Nico Hoerner batting at Cristopher Sanchez.
• 0.264, 0.651 — Brendan Donovan batting vs. Mike Burrows.
• 0.261, 0.648 — Miguel Rojas batting vs. David Peterson.
• 0.260, 0.638 — Giancarlo Stanton batting vs. Yusei Kikuchi.
• 0.258, 0.648 — Steven Kwan batting at Matthew Liberatore.
• 0.258, 0.644 — Shohei Ohtani batting vs. David Peterson.
• 0.258, 0.638 — Will Smith batting vs. David Peterson.

Pages, at seasonal age 25, appears to have developed into a much better hitter, building on improvements from 2025. He leads the majors with a .429 BA, with eight of his 24 hits going for extra bases. He does strikeout a bit, a low walk rate and a high BABIP makes him a good choice for extending a hit streak right now.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.296, 0.692 — Andy Pages batting vs. David Peterson.
• 0.268, 0.679 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Nathan Eovaldi.
• 0.265, 0.670 — Nico Hoerner batting at Cristopher Sanchez.
• 0.269, 0.665 — Amed Rosario batting vs. Yusei Kikuchi.
• 0.243, 0.663 — Xavier Edwards batting at Grant Holmes.
• 0.242, 0.662 — Trea Turner batting vs. Javier Assad.
• 0.266, 0.658 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. David Peterson.
• 0.264, 0.651 — Brendan Donovan batting vs. Mike Burrows.
• 0.244, 0.650 — Jeremy Pena batting at George Kirby.
• 0.245, 0.649 — Carlos Correa batting at George Kirby.
• 0.239, 0.649 — Bo Bichette batting at Justin Wrobleski.
• 0.265, 0.649 — Teoscar Hernandez batting vs. David Peterson.

Pena is listed as day to day. Pages tops this list as well. Wilson comes out as the consensus double down pick. Wilson is off to a bit of a slow start at the plate, with no walks and a much higher K rate than last season. His overall career numbers do indicate someone who should be good at extending a streak.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Nico Hoerner of the Cubs remained in first place with a two for five, one of the hits a double, his seventh of the season. Chicago topped Pittsburgh 7-6. Aaron Judge of the Yankees homered and walked in a 5-4 Rays win and remained in second place. In that same game, Yandy Diaz of the Rays posted a one for three with a walk for third place.

The highest game score of the day came off the bat of Brice Turang of the Brewers, an 82. he went three for four with a walk and two home runs, but the Nationals prevailed 8-6. Turang upped his slash line to .298/.441/.617 for the season, eight of his 14 hits going for extra bases to go along with 12 walks. He is moving up the rankings, now if the sixth slot.

So we have 17 cases of this happening. It is rarer than a 4 HR game which has happened 21 times. 

cybermetric.blogspot.com

Very cool. Thanks to Cy Morong for the research!

One might think that the Angels defense plays well behind him, and that may bet the case. The Angels this season rank poorly in defense, however.

The main change for Soriano seems to be more four seam fastballs and fewer two seamers. While he’s still getting a high percentage of balls on the ground, balls that used to be hit for line drives are turning into fly outs. A better mix of four and two seam fastballs seems to have batters topping one and swinging under the other. Even the Angels defense can catch those balls in play.

Garner was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in February 2024 and underwent numerous radiation and chemotherapy treatments for more than two years. The Astros celebrated him one last time when he threw out the first pitch before a game on April 30, 2025 – his 76th birthday. Several of his former teammates and players that he managed in Houston were in attendance and were united in their respect for Garner.

“He was competitive. He was honest. He told you the truth. He made you accountable — all the great things that leaders do,” Hall of Fame first baseman Jeff Bagwell said. “I think Gar just did a tremendous job of that. You could see how much he cared about his players, cared about winning and our organization. It was just a pleasure to play for him and be his friend.”

MLB.com

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Garner was a little bit of a late bloomer, his best seasons coming at seasonal ages 30 and 31. His 1979 season (age 30) saw him post the highest WAR of his career 4.1, on his way to a World Championship with the Pirates. He slashed .293/.359/.411 that year, all career highs. He did not show much power in his career, but did a decent job of getting on base with a .323 career mark.

As a manager, he tended to be a fixer. His best records came early in his three tenures, but in each case had trouble maintaining winning in subsequent years.

Cy Young Award winners battle in the Marlins game at the Tigers as Sandy Alcantara faces Tarik Skubal. Alcantara seems to have returned to his 2022 form. He pitched to a 2.28 ERA that season with six complete games. This year, his ERA stands at 0.74, he leads the NL in innings pitched, and has that league’s only complete game. Skubal vies for his fourth straight season with an ERA under 3.00, so far posting a 2.55 mark. His strikeouts are down this season, but so are his walks and home runs. Maybe batters are attacking his pitches earlier in the count?

The Yankees send Cam Schlittler against Drew Rasmussen and the Rays, both with ERAs under 2.00. Schlittler is the only pitcher in the majors with at least 15 innings and no walks allowed. He also has not hit a batter. Rasmussen allowed just one walk in ten innings, so expect a lot of pitches over the plate, or at least close enough for the batters to swing.

Enjoy!

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.288, 0.705 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.272, 0.687 — Luis Arraez batting at Cade Povich.
• 0.265, 0.660 — Ramon Laureano batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.257, 0.648 — Christian Yelich batting vs. Zack Littell.
• 0.257, 0.647 — Ildemaro Vargas batting at Andrew Painter.
• 0.256, 0.642 — Ryan Mountcastle batting vs. Adrian Houser.
• 0.255, 0.650 — Drake Baldwin batting vs. Tanner Bibee.
• 0.255, 0.664 — Xavier Edwards batting at Tarik Skubal.
• 0.255, 0.640 — Gunnar Henderson batting vs. Adrian Houser.
• 0.253, 0.620 — Taylor Ward batting vs. Adrian Houser.

ESPN lists Arraez and Mountcastle day to day with injuries . Freeland is a left-hander, so Andujar should start for the Padres. Laureano might bat leadoff, making that a pretty good double-down pair. Freeland pitched well so far this season, keeping batters away from solid contact with a .267 BABIP. Freeland developed a cutter last season, and it seems to be more effective this year.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.288, 0.705 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.272, 0.687 — Luis Arraez batting at Cade Povich.
• 0.252, 0.664 — Trea Turner batting vs. Zac Gallen.
• 0.255, 0.664 — Xavier Edwards batting at Tarik Skubal.
• 0.241, 0.663 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Cameron Schlittler.
• 0.250, 0.660 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Grant Taylor.
• 0.265, 0.660 — Ramon Laureano batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.248, 0.658 — Andy Pages batting vs. Jacob deGrom.
• 0.248, 0.655 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting vs. Taj Bradley.
• 0.234, 0.651 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Cameron Schlittler.
• 0.241, 0.651 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Aaron Civale.
• 0.230, 0.651 — Jacob Wilson batting at Freddy Peralta.

This is the first day a batter broke the .700 probability barrier this season. While the lists agree at the top, the NN down picks look very different. Given the injuries, Log5 favors Laureano as the double down, while the NN favors Turner or Edwards. Turner is 5 for 21 with two walks and seven K against Gallen.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Aaron Judge of the Yankees drew two walks in 5-4, ten inning, Rays win. Judge remained in second place. Yandy Diaz of the Rays singled and walked in the win and remained in third place.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays posted a two for four in a 7-4 Twins win for fourth place. Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers singled and homered in a 6-3 win over the Rangers for fifth place.

In that same game, Brandon Nimmo of the Rangers posted the highest game score of the day, an 82. He went three for four from the leadoff slot with a double and two home runs. Nimmo so far provided lots of offense for the Rangers with a .364/.435/.618 slash line, but the batters behind him so far performed poorly, not taking advantage of Nimmo’s on-base skills.

Happy Easter to all celebrating Eastern Rites today!

Max Fried and Nick Martinez pair off as the Yankees visit the Rays. Fried is a singles guy this season, with one double the only extra base blemish on the ten hits he allowed. Martinez walked just one batter in his first 12 innings with the Rays.

Finally, Foster Griffin of the Nationals takes on Kyle Harrison of the Brewers in Milwaukee. Griffin’s 2.70 ERA is a breath of fresh air for the Nats pitching staff, but it’s mostly due to opponents going 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position. Harrison starts the season with a high K rate, 12.2 per 9 IP compared to 9.0 for his career.

Enjoy!

At the extreme high end sit the Dodgers at 10-3. The probability of a .500 team winning at least 10 games comes in at 0.05, so the Dodgers present a much smaller chance of being an average team. Of course, this comes as no surprise since they won the last two World Series and refused to sit on their laurels in the off season.

Even with those extreme records, Boston is just four games out of first place, and the Dodgers lead their division by 2 1/2 games.

On the scoring side, the Dodgers sit at the top of the majors with 6.38 runs per game, while the Astros top the AL at 6.07 R/G. A surprise third team, the Washington Nationals, score 6.00 R/G. That’s thanks in part to a very healthy .342 OBP and saving their power for situations with men on base. Eleven of their 16 home runs produced multiple runs.

At the low end dwell the Reds at 2.93 runs per game, a team with a .203/.287/.321 slash line. Just above them at the bottom of the AL sit the White Sox 3.07 runs per game with a .196/.279/.301 slash line. The Reds inability to hit with runners in scoring position pushed them to last in R/G despite their better slash line.

On the pitching and defense side, two of the top three offensive power houses, the Astros and Nationals, rank 29th and 30th in runs allowed per game. Washington is the worst at 6.23 RA/G, while the Astros are just a bit better at 6.21 RA/G. Both pitching staff produce extremely high walk rates.

At the top sit the Yankees, allowing just 2.62 runs per game, just ahead of the NL Braves at 2.64 RA/G. Both these staffs keep their walk rates low, and New York allowed just three homers in 13 games.

Surprises? The Guardians and Brewers seldom look good on paper to me at the start of the season, but once again both are in first place in their divisions. I don’t think the Pirates tied with the Brewers is much of a surprise. They made good moves in the off-season, and so far they paid off. The Angels exceed my expectations as they stand at .500, as do the Marlins at 8-6.

The three recent horrible teams played better so far. The White Sox stand 5-9, .357. Not great, but they could put together a .400 season. The Athletics come in a 6-7, and the Rockies are 6-8. Last year they did not win their sixth game until May 1st.

Among the players on the league leaders board, there seems to be an influx of youth on the offensive side. I think that’s always a good sign for the health of the majors. Note, also, that both players named Max Muncy rank in the top five in runs scored.

Add the ABS strategy, and 2026 is off to a great start!

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.297, 0.679 — Ezequiel Tovar batting at German Marquez.
• 0.290, 0.676 — Ildemaro Vargas batting at Taijuan Walker.
• 0.289, 0.671 — Hunter Goodman batting at German Marquez.
• 0.288, 0.696 — Xavier Edwards batting at Casey Mize.
• 0.283, 0.653 — Troy Johnston batting at German Marquez.
• 0.283, 0.661 — Mickey Moniak batting at German Marquez.
• 0.281, 0.655 — Tyler Freeman batting at German Marquez.
• 0.281, 0.691 — Luis Arraez batting at Chris Bassitt.
• 0.281, 0.690 — Trea Turner batting vs. Brandon Pfaadt.
• 0.278, 0.642 — T.J. Rumfield batting at German Marquez.
• 0.278, 0.664 — Gabriel Moreno batting at Taijuan Walker.

Both Goodman and Moreno find themselves day to day with injuries, so check the lineups carefully if you decide to go with one of those.

It looks like a good day for the Rockies as they face their old teammate in San Diego. The change of scenery failed to help so far as Marquez allowed 14 hits in eight innings this season.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.288, 0.696 — Xavier Edwards batting at Casey Mize.
• 0.281, 0.691 — Luis Arraez batting at Chris Bassitt.
• 0.281, 0.690 — Trea Turner batting vs. Brandon Pfaadt.
• 0.272, 0.689 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Ryan Feltner.
• 0.297, 0.679 — Ezequiel Tovar batting at German Marquez.
• 0.290, 0.676 — Ildemaro Vargas batting at Taijuan Walker.
• 0.266, 0.675 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Erick Fedde.
• 0.289, 0.671 — Hunter Goodman batting at German Marquez.
• 0.260, 0.668 — Andy Pages batting vs. Jack Leiter.
• 0.278, 0.664 — Gabriel Moreno batting at Taijuan Walker.

Once again, the NN is more concerned about the batter’s ability to generate hits than the pitcher’s ability to prevent hits. Edwards rises to the top here, and is also the consensus top pick. Note that among the players on the lists, Vargas owns the longest current streak with an eight, and it is a hot eight games.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays sits in fourth place after a three for five with two doubles in a 10-4 rout of the Twins. Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers rounds out the top five after going one for four with a walk in an 8-7 win over the Rangers.

Max Muncy the elder did most of the damage for the Dodgers in that game. His four for five with three home runs gave him a game score of 92, the first score of at least 90 this season. Muncy, at seasonal age 35, owns a .286/.375/.571 slash line. This is the second time Muncy posted a game score of 90 or better. On 5/4/2024, he posted a 93. He had the same line except he drove in four runs instead of three. Yesterday was also the anniversary of his third highest game score, an 89, which took place in 2023. He only hit two home runs that day. Muncy ranks 100th on the list.

If every daily visitor contributed just $5, we’d reach our goal in a single day. For those able to give more, we offer special rewards: a $50 donation lets you dedicate a post with a hyperlink, while $500 grants you Patron status on our sidebar for two years. Every contribution, regardless of size, helps keep independent baseball analysis alive and supports the kind of long-form, thoughtful writing that blogging provides compared to other social media platforms.

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Donations can be made via PayPal, Square Cash, Venmo (David-Pinto-82), or by check. Please email pinto@baseballmusings.com with any questions, or for an address to send a check. Thank you for your continued support of Baseball Musings—together, we’re preserving a space where baseball analysis can go deep, explore ideas fully, and engage with the game beyond soundbites and hot takes.

The Rangers and Dodger play the last game of the day out of the west coast as Kumar Rocker faces Tyler Glasnow. Home runs and walks hurt Rocker in his short career, but his first five innings of 2026 saw no long balls and just one free pass. Glasnow hasn’t pitched as much as other great starters of the 2020’s, but among pitchers with 450 innings he ranks 19th in ERA since the start of 2021. He blows away batters and keeps the ball in the park.

Enjoy!

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit average versus starting pitchers:

• 0.288, 0.664 — Wilyer Abreu batting at Dustin May.
• 0.278, 0.689 — Xavier Edwards batting at Keider Montero.
• 0.275, 0.652 — Ceddanne Rafaela batting at Dustin May.
• 0.273, 0.673 — Andy Pages batting vs. Kumar Rocker.
• 0.272, 0.692 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Tomoyuki Sugano.
• 0.271, 0.663 — Christian Yelich batting vs. Jake Irvin.
• 0.269, 0.670 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Carmen Mlodzinski.
• 0.267, 0.653 — Colt Keith batting vs. Chris Paddack.
• 0.266, 0.635 — Connor Wong batting at Dustin May.
• 0.265, 0.680 — Luis Arraez batting at Shane Baz.
• 0.265, 0.647 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting at Dustin May.
• 0.265, 0.645 — Masataka Yoshida batting at Dustin May.

The Red Sox figure prominently today as May of the Cardinals started the season by allowing 17 hits in 7 1/3 innings. The BABIP against him stands at .556. Abreu owns a high K rate, but doesn’t walk much. For his career, his BABIP stands at .322, so if he puts the bat on the ball, there is a decent chance the ball falls for a hit.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.272, 0.692 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Tomoyuki Sugano.
• 0.278, 0.689 — Xavier Edwards batting at Keider Montero.
• 0.265, 0.680 — Luis Arraez batting at Shane Baz.
• 0.273, 0.673 — Andy Pages batting vs. Kumar Rocker.
• 0.258, 0.670 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Davis Martin.
• 0.269, 0.670 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Carmen Mlodzinski.
• 0.288, 0.664 — Wilyer Abreu batting at Dustin May.
• 0.271, 0.663 — Christian Yelich batting vs. Jake Irvin.
• 0.242, 0.659 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Luis Gil.
• 0.254, 0.658 — Bo Bichette batting vs. J.T. Ginn.

We are in the same situation as yesterday, with Andujar at the top without the platoon advantage. Sugano is a bit of a reverse righty, however, with right-handed batters doing better at getting on base against him than left-handed batters. There is also the timing issue, where Edwards and the Marlins start at 6:40 EDT, while the Padres get under way three hours later. The probabilities aren’t that different.

Edwards is the consensus top pick, which is another reason to go with him. Andujar is the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Nico Hoerner of the Cubs, Yandy Diaz of the Rays, Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays rank 1,3,4,5 respectively.

The highest game score of the day belonged to Josh Bell of the Twins. He posted a three for four with a home run for a score of 71. That helped beat the Tigers 3-1. Bell is off to a great start. Getting on base represents the strength of his offense over his career, and he is reaching at a .431 clip this season. He upped his power so far as well, with seven of his thirteen hits going for extra bases, good for a .634 slugging percentage.

 Major League Baseball’s average salary rose 3.4% on Opening Day to a record $5.34 million, according to a study by The Associated Press, and the New York Mets topped spending at the season’s start for the fourth straight year.

…

The Mets’ payroll of $352.2 million was just below the record $355.4 million they set in 2023 and up from $322.6 million last year. The Mets’ total is more than five times that of Cleveland, the lowest-spending team at $62.3 million.

ESPN.com

As I write this, the Guardians own an 8-5 record, the Mets are at 7-5 and leading the Diamondbacks 1-0 in the top of the sixth inning.

The power is coming from the short long hits, with 25 doubles and two triples to go with ten home runs.

Muncy also collected more hits than the Yankees, Ben Rice providing the only knock for the Bombers in the seventh inning. Springs lowered his ERA to 1.47 with his seven shutout innings, and the bullpen allowed just one walk.

After a poor start to the season, Oakland’s record is up to 5-7.

McLean owns 58 1/3 MLB innings, striking out over 10 batters per nine innings while doing a good job of keeping the ball in the park. He keeps batters off balance enough to hold them to a .258 BABIP. Note that batters don’t swing much at McLean’s pitches so far. When they swing at pitches in the zone, they make contact, but given few hits against him, that contact isn’t very good, giving him a 2.16 career ERA.

Enjoy!

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.271, 0.691 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Tyler Dollander.
• 0.262, 0.646 — Colt Keith batting at Mick Abel.
• 0.258, 0.664 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
• 0.255, 0.644 — Dillon Dingler batting at Mick Abel.
• 0.253, 0.661 — Jacob Wilson batting at Ryan Weathers.
• 0.249, 0.626 — Javier Baez batting at Mick Abel.
• 0.247, 0.640 — Ramon Laureano batting vs. Tyler Dollander.
• 0.247, 0.631 — Mark Vientos batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
• 0.246, 0.632 — Shea Langeliers batting at Ryan Weathers.
• 0.244, 0.629 — Brett Baty batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
• 0.244, 0.664 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Rhett Lowder.

Dollander is not confirmed as the starter yet, and being right-handed, Andujar likely won’t start against him. This is also a late game, so Colt Keith might be the better pick today. Keith strikes out a lot, but does produce a very good BABIP.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.271, 0.691 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Tyler Dollander.
• 0.244, 0.664 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Rhett Lowder.
• 0.258, 0.664 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
• 0.253, 0.661 — Jacob Wilson batting at Ryan Weathers.
• 0.236, 0.653 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Anthony Kay.
• 0.262, 0.646 — Colt Keith batting at Mick Abel.
• 0.255, 0.644 — Dillon Dingler batting at Mick Abel.
• 0.247, 0.640 — Ramon Laureano batting vs. Tyler Dollander.
• 0.235, 0.639 — Amed Rosario batting vs. Jeffrey Springs.
• 0.240, 0.634 — Ezequiel Tovar batting at Randy Vasquez.

Edwards*, right now, provides a great combination of factors for extending a streak. He hits high in the order, seldom walks or strikes out, and over 40% of his balls in play land for hits. If Andujar plays, he is the consensus top pick. If he doesn’t, Bichette would be the consensus top choice, with Keith and Wilson tied for the consensus double down pick. With just six games, there’s a lot of think about today when making your choice. On top of that, there are three early afternoon games, so get your picks in early.

*Edwards beast Bichette .6643 to .6638.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!