If every daily visitor contributed just $5, we’d reach our goal in a single day. For those able to give more, we offer special rewards: a $50 donation lets you dedicate a post with a hyperlink, while $500 grants you Patron status on our sidebar for two years. Every contribution, regardless of size, helps keep independent baseball analysis alive and supports the kind of long-form, thoughtful writing that blogging provides compared to other social media platforms.

Our goal this year is $2,000. Donations can be made via PayPal, Square Cash, Venmo (David-Pinto-82), or by check. Please email pinto@baseballmusings.com with any questions (and my address for a check). Thank you for your continued support of Baseball Musings—together, we’re preserving a space where baseball analysis can go deep, explore ideas fully, and engage with the game beyond soundbites and hot takes.

Square Cash Link

Walks provide minor runner advancement however. Home runs are down from 2.25 per game to 2.01 per game. Other hits are down from 13.63 per game to 13.58 per game. A rise in strikeouts from 17.09 per game to 17.53 per game is helping to lower hits.

MLB had been doing a good job of cutting down on strikeouts and walks the last couple of seasons. We’ll see if this is just an early, poor weather, trend. The first week of 2026 saw the third lowest scoring since this study began in 2015.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.294, 0.688 — Jake Mangum batting vs. German Marquez.
• 0.293, 0.679 — Ryan O’Hearn batting vs. German Marquez.
• 0.292, 0.679 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. German Marquez.
• 0.276, 0.654 — Brandon Lowe batting vs. German Marquez.
• 0.271, 0.646 — Bryan Reynolds batting vs. German Marquez.
• 0.270, 0.648 — Spencer Horwitz batting vs. German Marquez.
• 0.269, 0.683 — Trea Turner batting at Adrian Houser.
• 0.268, 0.673 — Andy Pages batting at Max Scherzer.
• 0.267, 0.681 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Brandon Williamson.
• 0.264, 0.634 — Joey Bart batting vs. German Marquez.
• 0.264, 0.623 — Oneil Cruz batting vs. German Marquez.

Marquez allowed a .291 hit average since the start of the 2024 season. Remember, that’s hits/PA. A lot of that came from pitching at Coors Field, but in his first start for the Padres he allowed eight hits in three innings. It might be a good day to pick your favorite Pirate.

The NN produces this list of players with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.294, 0.688 — Jake Mangum batting vs. German Marquez.
• 0.269, 0.683 — Trea Turner batting at Adrian Houser.
• 0.267, 0.681 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Brandon Williamson.
• 0.293, 0.679 — Ryan O’Hearn batting vs. German Marquez.
• 0.292, 0.679 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. German Marquez.
• 0.268, 0.673 — Andy Pages batting at Max Scherzer.
• 0.252, 0.668 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Jameson Taillon.
• 0.250, 0.665 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Jameson Taillon.
• 0.246, 0.664 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Andrew Painter.
• 0.251, 0.664 — Jeremy Pena batting at Ryan Feltner.

In 453 MLB plate appearances, Mangum owns a very low walk rate and a decently low K rate. Combine that with a .345 BABIP, and he looks like a good streak extender. He is old, however, playing at seasonal age 30. His role, however, is platooning against LHP, so he may not play against right righty Marquez. O’Hearn gets the nod as the consensus top pick with Turner and Gonzales tied for the double down choice. Watch the lineups today!

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sits in fourth place as he singeld and walked in a 3-0 White Sox win. Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers returns to the top five with a two for four, including his second home run of the season, as the Dodgers once against erase a large Nationals lead to win 8-6.

The best game score of the day came off the bat of Brent Rooker of the Athletics, a 76. Rooker, off to a slow start this season, went two for four with a walk and two home runs to drive in six runs. His second shot came in the bottom of the tenth inning, driving in three runs and winning the game over the Astros 12-10. Those are the first two homers for Rooker in 2026, after hitting at least 30 in each of the previous three seasons.

The White Sox lost over 100 games each of the previous three years, including 121 losses in 2024. An early season sweep like this over a team that came within a few feet of winning the World Series has to give the group a positive outlook. We’ll see how they build from here the rest of the season. The wins should at least get the fans interested again.

The graph connects every pitcher to every batter who combined for a home run. The producer uses this in many ways. He finds unusual events (players with the same or birthday homering off each other, for example). He discusses the history of the game by looking at the graph in pieces by era. He connects early players to late players through batters and pitchers in a Kevin Bacon like process.

And of course, we can connect Kevin Bacon into the graph. Babe Ruth appeared in “Pride of the Yankees” with Gary Cooper:

• Cooper and June Lockhart in Sargent York
• Lockhart and Bacon in The Big Picture

Reggie Jackson played a different kind of hit man in “The Naked Gun” with Leslie Nielsen:

• Nielsen and Ed Harris in Creepshow
• Harris and Bacon in Apollo 13

Both Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris show up in “That Touch of Mink” with Doris Day:

• Day and Roddy McDowell in Midnight Lace
• McDowell and Bacon in The Big Picture

And of course, Jackie Robinson played himself in “The Jackie Robinson Story::

• Robinson and Marvelle Andre in The Jackie Robinson Story.
• Andre and Edwin Max in We’re Not Married
• Max and Bacon in The Gift.

So we can connect Bacon to the beginning of the power ERA, two great Yankees sluggers, the Negro Leagues, and Reggie. We probably can get anywhere on the graph from there.

Update: My friend who shared the video notes that a 1951 movie, “Angels in the Outfield”, has a number of uncredited baseball players appearing, including Ty Cobb, Joe DiMaggio, and Ralph Kiner. Janet Leigh was the big star:

• Leigh and William Windom in House on Greenapple Road
• Windom and Bacon in Planes, Trains, and Automobiles.

Chase Burns leads the Reds against the Rangers and Jack Leiter. Burns was on fire in his first start, allowing one hit in five innings while striking out seven. Leiter comes off a pretty good first full season with one walk and eight K over six innings in his first start of 2026.

Enjoy!

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays moved into third place with his first home run of the season in a 6-3 White Sox win.

Nico Hoerner of the Cubs and Juan Soto of the Mets round out the top five. Neither played on Saturday as rain postponed the Cubs game and Soto sat out with a calf injury.

It was a good day to be a Walker as Christian Walker of the Astros and Jordan Walker of the Cardinals tied for the highest game score of the day, a 74. Christian went three for five with a double, a home run, and a walk as Houston pounded the Athletics 11-0. Jordan posted a three for four with a home run and five RBI, but the Tigers took the game 11-6.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.278, 0.696 — Miguel Andujar batting at Ranger Suarez.
• 0.274, 0.668 — Ezequiel Tovar batting vs. Taijuan Walker.
• 0.272, 0.655 — Giancarlo Stanton batting vs. Chris Paddack.
• 0.271, 0.692 — Trea Turner batting at Tomoyuki Sugano.
• 0.269, 0.663 — Aaron Judge batting vs. Chris Paddack.
• 0.268, 0.661 — Amed Rosario batting vs. Chris Paddack.
• 0.265, 0.656 — Hunter Goodman batting vs. Taijuan Walker.
• 0.263, 0.647 — Cody Bellinger batting vs. Chris Paddack.
• 0.262, 0.668 — Bo Bichette batting at Logan Webb.
• 0.262, 0.650 — Mickey Moniak batting vs. Taijuan Walker.

Andujar does own the platoon advantage against Suarez, so he should be a good pick for today. Stanton played another impressive offensive game on Saturday, going one for three with two walks, and he turned one of those walks into a run with his legs. He stole a base, moved to third on a ground out, then scored when the ball got away from the catcher. He is batting .393 with a .433 OBP, indicating most of his on-base this season comes from hits.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.278, 0.696 — Miguel Andujar batting at Ranger Suarez.
• 0.271, 0.692 — Trea Turner batting at Tomoyuki Sugano.
• 0.259, 0.671 — Yandy Diaz batting at Simeon Woods Richardson.
• 0.256, 0.668 — Chandler Simpson batting at Simeon Woods Richardson.
• 0.274, 0.668 — Ezequiel Tovar batting vs. Taijuan Walker.
• 0.262, 0.668 — Bo Bichette batting at Logan Webb.
• 0.254, 0.666 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Kyle Harrison.
• 0.269, 0.663 — Aaron Judge batting vs. Chris Paddack.
• 0.260, 0.662 — Nico Hoerner batting at Slade Cecconi.
• 0.256, 0.662 — Andy Pages batting at Foster Griffin.
• 0.243, 0.662 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Lance McCullers.

Both systems like Andujar as the top pick, but disagree on the double down. Turner wins the Borda count as the consensus double down choice over Tovar. Both play at Coors today. Both walk very little and own high career BABIPs. Turner strikes out less with the higher BABIP, however, so he does seem to be the better double down choice. Tovar is tied with Juan Soto and Xavier Edwards for the longest current hit streak in the majors at eight games, Turner is at five games.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Happy Easter to all celebrating today!

In the bottom of the ninth, game tied at two, the Pirates put runners on first and second with one out. Nick Yorke, who had pinch run for Marcel Ozuna, came to the plate. On a 2-2 count the umpire called a ball, but it looked like it nicked the box on the screen. The Orioles wanted to challenge but could not. Yorke hit the next pitch over the head of Dylan Beavers in leftfield (the second misplay of a ball by Beavers in the inning), and the Pirates win. The Baseball Musings favorite to win the NL Central are off to a 5-3 start.

The Braves are off to a good start this season at 6-2 as they send Bryce Elder against the Diamondbacks and Michael Soroka. Both pitchers won their first starts of the season without allowing an earned run.

Enjoy!

Nico Hoerner of the Cubs drew two walks in four trips to the plate in a 4-1 Guardians win. Hoerner owns a .400 OBP to start the season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays posted a one for four in a 5-4, ten inning, White Sox win. He ranks fourth. Fifth place goes to Juan Soto of the Mets, went one for one in a 10-3 rout of the Giants. He left the game with tightness in his right calf and will get an MRI today. His eight-game hit streak is the longest in the majors.

Max Muncy of the Athletics and Andy Pages of the Dodgers tied for the best game score of the day, a 74. Muncy the Younger went three for four with a double and a home run in an 11-4 win over the Astros. He is slugging .615 on the season. Pages posted a three for four with a walk and a home run, one of five on the day by the Dodgers. They beat Washington 13-6. Pages is off to a great start with a .480/.500/.760 slash line. He’s playing in his age 25 season, just at the beginning of his prime, a good time to make the next step forward offensively.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.277, 0.684 — Yandy Diaz batting at Mick Abel.
• 0.271, 0.676 — Chandler Simpson batting at Mick Abel.
• 0.269, 0.669 — Brendan Donovan batting at Jack Kochanowicz.
• 0.264, 0.653 — Dillon Dingler batting vs. Dustin May.
• 0.263, 0.668 — Andy Pages batting at Jake Irvin.
• 0.262, 0.681 — Trea Turner batting at Tyler Dollander.
• 0.261, 0.642 — Colt Keith batting vs. Dustin May.
• 0.260, 0.662 — Nico Hoerner batting at Slade Cecconi.
• 0.258, 0.670 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Chad Patrick.
• 0.258, 0.646 — Giancarlo Stanton batting vs. Max Meyer.
• 0.257, 0.667 — Xavier Edwards batting at Ryan Weathers.

Donovan suffered an injury yesterday, so the list goes to eleven in case he can’t play. Diaz and Simpson represent a hot pair for the Rays, neither striking out much this season.

I’m surprised to see Stanton in the list, but is batting .400 in 25 PA with no walks and only five strikeouts. That’s a low K rate for the big slugger.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.277, 0.684 — Yandy Diaz batting at Mick Abel.
• 0.262, 0.681 — Trea Turner batting at Tyler Dollander.
• 0.271, 0.676 — Chandler Simpson batting at Mick Abel.
• 0.252, 0.671 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Clay Holmes.
• 0.258, 0.670 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Chad Patrick.
• 0.248, 0.670 — Miguel Andujar batting at Connelly Early.
• 0.269, 0.669 — Brendan Donovan batting at Jack Kochanowicz.
• 0.263, 0.668 — Andy Pages batting at Jake Irvin.
• 0.257, 0.667 — Xavier Edwards batting at Ryan Weathers.
• 0.245, 0.666 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Tatsuya Imai.
• 0.254, 0.666 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Brandon Sproat.

The Royals and Brewers play the first doubleheader of the season, so you could double down on Witt today. Diaz tops both lists, but the NN likes Turner as the double down. Philadelphia plays in Colorado, and Dollander doesn’t have much of a track record. Simpson is the consensus double down pick, but Turner is a compelling choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Two teams looking to improve on 2025 meet in Pittsburgh as Kyle Bradish of the Orioles takes on Mitch Keller of the Pirates. Tommy John surgery limited Bradish to fourteen starts over the last two seasons, but he posted a 2.65 ERA with a K rate of 12.6 in those outings. Keller opened his season with six shutout innings as he did not walk a batter.

Enjoy!

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.273, 0.671 — Andy Pages batting at Miles Mikolas.
• 0.271, 0.681 — Yandy Diaz batting at Bailey Ober.
• 0.268, 0.677 — Chandler Simpson batting at Bailey Ober.
• 0.268, 0.684 — Miguel Andujar batting at Sonny Gray.
• 0.264, 0.659 — Miguel Rojas batting at Miles Mikolas.
• 0.264, 0.669 — Xavier Edwards batting at Will Warren.
• 0.263, 0.662 — Brendan Donovan batting at Reid Detmers.
• 0.262, 0.660 — Ramon Laureano batting at Sonny Gray.
• 0.261, 0.653 — Mauricio Dubon batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
• 0.261, 0.675 — Trea Turner batting at Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.261, 0.657 — Freddie Freeman batting at Miles Mikolas.

So far this season, Pages struck out just twice and failed to draw a walk. He generated a .444 BABIP; his career average stands at .310. Get him while he’s hot.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.268, 0.684 — Miguel Andujar batting at Sonny Gray.
• 0.271, 0.681 — Yandy Diaz batting at Bailey Ober.
• 0.268, 0.677 — Chandler Simpson batting at Bailey Ober.
• 0.261, 0.675 — Trea Turner batting at Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.273, 0.671 — Andy Pages batting at Miles Mikolas.
• 0.258, 0.669 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Chad Patrick.
• 0.264, 0.669 — Xavier Edwards batting at Will Warren.
• 0.243, 0.662 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Nolan McLean.
• 0.263, 0.662 — Brendan Donovan batting at Reid Detmers.
• 0.262, 0.660 — Ramon Laureano batting at Sonny Gray.
• 0.255, 0.660 — Jonathan Aranda batting at Bailey Ober.

Andujar platoons against left-handed pitching, so he is unlikely to get the start in the Red Sox home opener. Assuming he doesn’t play, Diaz comes in as the consensus top pick, with Pages edging out Simpson for the consensus double down choice. Like Pages, Diaz is off to a hot BABIP start, with a .476 mark. Simpson, in both his minor and major league career, strikes out very little.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Matt Olson of the Braves collected three hits and a walk in five plate appearances, the hits good for two doubles and a home run as the Braves pounded the Diamondbacks 17-2. Olson is striking out a lot this season, but makes up for it with a .471 BABIP.

The Pirates’ home opener vs. the Orioles on Friday (4:12 p.m. ET, MLB.TV) will be even more special, as the club intends to promote top prospect Konnor Griffin from Triple-A Indianapolis, tabbing the 19-year-old to improve production at shortstop while acknowledging an impressive developmental response.

…

In his first 16 at-bats at Triple-A, Griffin accumulated seven hits, including three doubles, for a .438 average and 1.196 OPS. That also includes five walks against just four strikeouts.

MLB.com

As 19 year old, playing at A, A+, and AA, he hit .333/.415/.527, pretty much steady at all levels. It looks like he actually needs a challenge.

Enjoy!

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.262, 0.674 — Luis Arraez batting vs. David Peterson.
• 0.246, 0.660 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Taj Bradley.
• 0.234, 0.618 — Kyle Isbel batting vs. Taj Bradley.
• 0.233, 0.618 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. David Peterson.
• 0.232, 0.615 — Harrison Bader batting vs. David Peterson.
• 0.230, 0.623 — Mauricio Dubon batting at Ryne Nelson.
• 0.229, 0.609 — Heliot Ramos batting vs. David Peterson.
• 0.227, 0.620 — Dominic Smith batting at Ryne Nelson.
• 0.227, 0.615 — Maikel Garcia batting vs. Taj Bradley.
• 0.226, 0.619 — Drake Baldwin batting at Ryne Nelson.

There are only three games today, and with the season still young, most hit averages are going to be low. The MLB average right now is a paltry .204. Hits seem to becoming tougher to find all the time.

Arraez and Witt tend to be near the top of these charts, so no suprise they lead a thin pack.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.262, 0.674 — Luis Arraez batting vs. David Peterson.
• 0.246, 0.660 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Taj Bradley.
• 0.222, 0.626 — Bo Bichette batting at Robbie Ray.
• 0.230, 0.623 — Mauricio Dubon batting at Ryne Nelson.
• 0.225, 0.621 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Reynaldo Lopez.
• 0.227, 0.620 — Dominic Smith batting at Ryne Nelson.
• 0.226, 0.619 — Drake Baldwin batting at Ryne Nelson.
• 0.233, 0.618 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. David Peterson.
• 0.234, 0.618 — Kyle Isbel batting vs. Taj Bradley.
• 0.227, 0.615 — Maikel Garcia batting vs. Taj Bradley.
• 0.232, 0.615 — Harrison Bader batting vs. David Peterson.

The probabilities really fall off after Arraez and Witt. They are your double down for the day.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Third placed belongs to Yandy Diaz of Rays, two for four with a home run in an 8-2 Brewers win, Milwaukee off to a 5-1start. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays took an 0 for 4 in a 2-1 Rockies win, Guerrero dropping to fourth. Nico Hoerner of the Cubs moved into fifth place, collecting three hits, two of them doubles, in a 6-2 win over the Angels.

The best game score of the day came off the bat of Kyle Isbel of the Royals, a 79. Batting ninth, Isbel posted a four for four night with a home run in a 13-9 win over the Twins. Isbel, with a .291 career OBP is now 8 for 14 on the season with no walks and just two strikeouts. Two of his eight hits went for home runs, giving him a 1.000 slugging percentage.

From 2019 through 2023, Alcantara collects twelve complete games, twice as much as any other pitcher in the majors.

The Marlins go to 5-1 and occupy first place in the NL East.

Paul Skenes tries to right himself after a poor first start of the season as the Pirates visit the Reds and Andrew Abbott. Skenes dominated the Reds so far in his career. The faced them five times, allowing one run in his first start, and none since for an 0.31 ERA. He walked two and struck out 40 in 29 innings. Abbott comes off a strong 2025, starting 2026 with six shutout innings, walking just one batter.

The Rays and Brewers play the rubber game of their series with Drew Rasmussen facing Jacob Misiorowski. Rasmussen posts excellent number throughout his career with the Rays. He owns a 2.72 ERA with the team in 433 1/3 innings, with very low walk and HR rates. Misiorowski, in his short career, showed he can blow away batters with 98 strikeouts in 71 innings.

Finally, Cam Schlittler and the Yankees battle George Kirby and the Mariners in the rubber game of their series. Schlittler combines a high K rate of 13.50 with a low BABIP of .276. It’s a big reason he allowed just 59 hits in 78 1/3 career innings. Kirby comes off a down year in which he allowed a 4.21 ERA. His weakness is the home run ball, which is the strength of the Yankees offense.

Enjoy!