At seasonal age 24 he matured into a dangerous slugger, and he showed all of baseball just how well he can hit last night.

My point being that the 2026 season is consistent with the idea that the league is very evenly matched. If the league is evenly matched, it does not need a salary cap just because every 25 years or so some team dominates the World Series for a few seasons.

One thing that looks like it worked well came from the last CBA, the incentives that allow pre-arbitration players to earn bonuses. From what I observed, the young stars are competing with each other not just for the rookie of the year trophy, but to see who can take home the biggest bonus. As economists like to say, “Incentives matter.”

I also suspect the draft lottery helps, too. It’s no longer worth tanking. It might even help some teams that don’t need much find the extra talent to move up quicker.

All in all, I’m very happy with 2026, where a ten game win streak can put almost any team back in contention.

That’s the good news. The bad news is the balance came with an increase in three-true outcomes. Home runs per game are up 0.1 per game, from 2.2 HR per game to 2.3 HR per game, and in six of the last seven weeks they trended higher than that. Strikeouts are up from 16.5 per game to 16.7 per game. Walks are up from 6.4 per game to 6.8 per game, although they have moderated starting with week six. It is the walks that are driving the higher scoring, maybe not the optimal way to get there, because the walks come win a lowering of BABIP hits (singles, doubles, triples) from 14.3 per game in 2025 to 14.0 per game in 2026. BABIP hits generate action, and fans like action.

Week 15 was also right on the sweet spot, with 8.98 runs per game. Home runs were high at 2.5 per game, BABIP hits were low at 13.6 per game, walks were low at 6.5 per game, and strikeouts were right in line at 16.6 per game.

Wheeler is now in third place, about two and a half points ahead of his teammate, Cristopher Sanchez. Paul Skenes of the Pirates posted a game score of 60 in the 14-5 win over the Brewers, ranking Skenes fifth.

Rays teammates Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda rank second and third. Caminero drew a walk in four trips to the plate, while Aranda collected a home run and hit by pitch in an 8-2 Mariners win.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros ranks fourth after a two for three with two walks in a 6-5, late inning win by the Rangers. Alvarez brought his league leading OBP up to .426. Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates moved back into the top five with a one for two in a 14-5 win over the Brewers, Pittsburgh sweeping that series. The Pirates are just two games out of the third wild card slot.

Wheeler does make up for his higher ERA by going deep in games. In that time, and despite a long injury layoff last season, Wheeler collected 90 more innings than Skubal.

Wheeler is going to be an interesting Hall of Fame candidate. An early two season injury meant he didn’t come into his own until seasonal age 28. In his 30s, when most pitchers wane, Wheeler put up fantastic numbers, so far accumulating 35.2 rWAR in 6 1/2 seasons. His career rWAR stands at 44.3. Three more years of five WAR seasons would put him at 60, so he’s going to need a Nolan Ryan type late surge to assure a Hall election. If not, we’ll see if voters were willing to extrapolate backwards to give him a nod.

Enjoy!

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.362, 0.759 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.342, 0.728 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.319, 0.699 — Casey Schmitt batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.311, 0.689 — Heliot Ramos batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.308, 0.720 — Ernie Clement batting at German Marquez.
• 0.294, 0.682 — Blaze Alexander batting vs. Seth Lugo.
• 0.290, 0.696 — Michael Harris II batting at Dustin May.
• 0.287, 0.651 — Bryson Eldridge batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.285, 0.690 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting vs. Will Warren.
• 0.283, 0.651 — Rafael Devers batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.

Every time the Giants play the Rockies the leaderboard for Log5 is dominated by Giants hitters. That’s due to the Giants owning the highest hit average in the majors, .234, and the Rockies pitchers owning the highest opposition hit average in the majors, .255. The MLB hit average is currently .216. It’s a perfect storm of hits when these teams meet.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.362, 0.759 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.342, 0.728 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.308, 0.720 — Ernie Clement batting at German Marquez.
• 0.271, 0.704 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Robert Gasser.
• 0.281, 0.704 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Joey Cantillo.
• 0.319, 0.699 — Casey Schmitt batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.290, 0.696 — Michael Harris II batting at Dustin May.
• 0.262, 0.691 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Emerson Hancock.
• 0.285, 0.690 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting vs. Will Warren.
• 0.311, 0.689 — Heliot Ramos batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.

Arraez collected five hits in 10 PA against Lorenzen in their careers with one strikeout. Lee went two for five with no walks and no Ks. So the unanimous double down seems like a good one today.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros posted the second highest game score of the day, a 75, returning to the top five in fourth place. He doubled, homered, and drew two walks in a 9-3 win over the first place Rangers. Alvarez is now tied for the AL lead in hits with 109, leads in home runs with 31, extra-base hits with 48, total bases with 219, RBI with 70, OBP with .422, and slugging percentage with .633.

Otto Lopez of the Marlins rounds out the the five after drawing a walk in a 4-1 Guardians win. That drops his BA to .339, and his NL lead over Luis Arraez in the category is down to seven points.

Esmerlyn Valdez of the Pirates produced the highest game score of the day in game one of the doubleheader against the Brewers. His three for four with two homers and six RBI totaled to an 82. He also homered in game two, giving him homers in three straight games. He is 100 PA into his career, and anything can happen in that small sample size, but he does own the highest slugging percentage this season for anyone with at least 100 PA. His numbers are a bit more amazing considering he struck out 36 times. His BABIP stands at .400.

The Pirates move to two games over .500 and just three games out of the wild card slot.

Cristopher Sanchez tries to recover from his prior poor outing as he and the Phillies square off against the Tigers and Casey Mize. Sanchez Sanchez reached 10 wins for the third season in a row, and needs just four more win for a new single season high of 14. The Tigers seem to have turned their season around, 22-12 since June 1st, with only the Marlins (26-9) and the Brewers (24-13) better. Mize during that stretch owns a 3.38 ERA with great walk numbers.

Enjoy!

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.380, 0.770 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.363, 0.745 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.338, 0.714 — Casey Schmitt batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.329, 0.704 — Heliot Ramos batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.308, 0.708 — Michael Harris II batting at Matthew Liberatore.
• 0.303, 0.712 — Ernie Clement batting at Walker Buehler.
• 0.302, 0.666 — Bryson Eldridge batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.302, 0.670 — Rafael Devers batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.291, 0.656 — Jesus Rodriguez batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.291, 0.656 — Drew Cavanaugh batting vs. Kyle Freeland.

It’s another ridiculous day for the Giants as they face another Rockies pitcher that is easily pounded. His is a lefty, however, and Arraez only faced him three times, collecting one hit. Schmitt is three for eight against Freeland, and Ramos stands 6 for 16.

Note that the Brewers and Pirates play a doubleheader today, so be careful picking from those games.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.380, 0.770 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.363, 0.745 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.338, 0.714 — Casey Schmitt batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.285, 0.713 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Shane Drohan.
• 0.290, 0.712 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Tanner Bibee.
• 0.303, 0.712 — Ernie Clement batting at Walker Buehler.
• 0.276, 0.708 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Brandon Sproat.
• 0.308, 0.708 — Michael Harris II batting at Matthew Liberatore.
• 0.329, 0.704 — Heliot Ramos batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.279, 0.693 — Jeremy Pena batting at Kumar Rocker.

The two systems agree on the top three, or you could just double down with Mangum!

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Per Elias, Peters became the third player in at least the expansion era (since 1961) to complete the cycle by getting two hits in the same inning, joining the Orioles’ Felix Pie (seventh inning, Aug. 14, 2009, single and triple) and the Giants’ Jim Ray Hart (fifth inning, July 8, 1970, triple and home run).

He also became the fifth player since at least 1900 to achieve the cycle as a No. 9 hitter.

MLB.com

He homered and tripled in the seventh inning. His four for four raised his slash line to .303/.357/.484 on the season, certainly helping out the White Sox resurgence. Chicago beat the Athletics 14-1.

Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs remains in first place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after a poor game, 0 for 4 with three strikeouts, the Reds winning 4-0. He is now two points ahead of Junior Caminero of the Rays who doubled and homered in a 7-2 win over the Mariners. The reeling Mariners fall under .500, 1 1/2 games behind the Rangers in the AL West. Caminero’s teammate, Jonathan Aranda, ranks fifth after a three for five performance, including a double.

Otto Lopez of the Marlins comes in third after an 0 for 4 in a 3-2 Guardians win. Juan Soto of the Mets holds fourth place as he singles and hits a sacrifice fly in a 6-2 Red Sox win.

The Diamondbacks try to reach .500 again as they send Eduardo Rodriguez against Shohei Ohtani. Rodriguez is making a bid for comeback player of the year. After posting ERAs over 5.00 the previous two seasons, he comes into this game with a 2.25 mark. He strikes out fewer batters, but does a better job of keeping the ball in the park. Ohtani ranks great with home runs on both sides of the ball. As a pitcher, he allowed the lowest HR per 9 rate the majors with a minimum of 80 innings.

Enjoy!

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.386, 0.772 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.372, 0.751 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.345, 0.718 — Casey Schmitt batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.342, 0.715 — Heliot Ramos batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.317, 0.683 — Victor Bericoto batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.315, 0.678 — Bryson Eldridge batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.306, 0.672 — Rafael Devers batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.298, 0.662 — Jesus Rodriguez batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.298, 0.703 — Michael Harris II batting at Kyle Leahy.
• 0.298, 0.661 — Drew Cavanaugh batting vs. Tanner Gordon.

The weakness of the Log5 Method is that an outlier pitcher makes everyone on the opposition look like a star. That said, Gordon is clearly awful, with a .354 opposition BABIP in 155 innings. He doesn’t walk batters, but I suspect that’s because batters see pitches they want to hit before he can deep in counts. He’s actually worse on the road than he is at Coors Field.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.386, 0.772 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.372, 0.751 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.345, 0.718 — Casey Schmitt batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.342, 0.715 — Heliot Ramos batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.280, 0.709 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Parker Messick.
• 0.277, 0.708 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Brandon Sproat.
• 0.290, 0.708 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Luis Castillo.
• 0.298, 0.703 — Michael Harris II batting at Kyle Leahy.
• 0.285, 0.702 — Ernie Clement batting at JP Sears.
• 0.287, 0.697 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Shane Bieber.

The NN doesn’t turn the entire Giants roster into superstars, but the two systems agree on the top four. The last time Arraez produced a very high probability he did not get a hit, however. Arraez is just one for twelve against Gordon with a walk and one strikeout. Lee, Ramos, and Schmitt are all one for five. Devers is three for five, however. Still, if you trust the probabilities more than small sample sizes, Arraez and Lee are the double down picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Third and fourth place belong to Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz of the Rays respectively. Caminero hit his 27th home run of the season and Diaz singled in a 12-4 Yankees win, the teams splitting a four-game series.

Juan Soto of the Mets sits in fifth place after homering and drawing two walks in a 7-3 win over the Royals.

Jake Mangum of the Pirates posted the highest game score of the day, an 80. His four for five with a double and a home run wasn’t enough, however, to save Pittsburgh from a 10-5 Braves win. The home run was Mangum’s second of the season. He is a singles hitter, with 98 of his 120 hits going for extra bases. With a low walk rate and little power, his .311 BA represents a high percentage of his offensive ability.

The slugfest of the day could take place in San Diego where Merrill Kelly leads the Diamondbacks against Griffin Canning. Kelly comes into the game with a 5.71 ERA, having allowed 19 home runs in 86 2/3 innings. Canning owns a 6.71 ERA, thanks in part to a walk rate of 5.29 batters per 9 IP. That helps the 52 hits he allowed in 51 inning do a lot of damage.

Enjoy!

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.305, 0.704 — Brandon Marsh batting at Brady Singer.
• 0.300, 0.688 — Blaze Alexander batting vs. David Peterson.
• 0.293, 0.702 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Merrill Kelly.
• 0.292, 0.722 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Ryan Feltner.
• 0.289, 0.699 — Michael Harris II batting at Mitch Keller.
• 0.287, 0.711 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Bryce Elder.
• 0.286, 0.702 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Bryce Elder.
• 0.282, 0.672 — Dominic Canzone batting at Janson Junk.
• 0.280, 0.698 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Ryan Feltner.
• 0.278, 0.668 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting vs. Merrill Kelly.

Marsh is a good match for Singer. Both own high BABIPs, but Singer adds a high number of home runs allowed.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.292, 0.722 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Ryan Feltner.
• 0.287, 0.711 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Bryce Elder.
• 0.305, 0.704 — Brandon Marsh batting at Brady Singer.
• 0.293, 0.702 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Merrill Kelly.
• 0.286, 0.702 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Bryce Elder.
• 0.289, 0.699 — Michael Harris II batting at Mitch Keller.
• 0.280, 0.698 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Ryan Feltner.
• 0.250, 0.696 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Bryce Miller.
• 0.271, 0.689 — Jacob Wilson batting at Framber Valdez.
• 0.300, 0.688 — Blaze Alexander batting vs. David Peterson.

Arraez owns a 4 for 14, .308 against Feltner in his career with no walks and one strikeout. So the Log5 projection is spot on. Lopez and Harris own two of the longest active hit streaks. Marsh is the consensus top pick, with Arraez the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Otto Lopez of the Marlins stayed hot with a single and a double in four PA as Miami beats the Mariners 2-0. His 26 doubles lead the National League and MLB. Juan Soto of the Mets sits in fifth place after walking twice in a 6-2 win over the Royals.

Jo Adell of the Angels posted the highest game score of the day, a 77. He went two for four with two home runs and five RBI in a 13-1 win over the Rangers. Adell’s power dropped this season. After hitting 37 home runs in 2025, he only hit 13 so for in 2026. Maybe Wednesday’s game is the start of the return of his power.

Regan’s best season as a pitcher and only All-Star appearance came with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1966, when he was nicknamed the Vulture by legendary teammate Sandy Koufax because of his penchant for recording wins as a relief pitcher. The right-hander went 14-1 with a 1.62 ERA that season for the National League champion Dodgers while leading the league in games pitched (48) and saves (21).

ESPN.com

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

The 1966 season was his first as a full time reliever. He posted mostly poor rWARs his first six seasons in the majors. Working purely as a reliever in 1966 his WAR rose to 4.9. He cut down on both his walk and home run rates, although the latter might due to his move from Tiger Stadium to Dodger Stadium. He pitched over 100 innings four times as a reliever.

“I never wanted to retire because of a milestone, a number, or a date on the calendar. I wanted the game to tell me when it was time,” Verlander said in a lengthy statement posted to his social media accounts. “Over the last several months, I’ve realized that time has come.

“While I’m fully committed to giving my team everything I have for the rest of this season, I’ve decided this will be my last. It’s fitting that I get to finish where it all started — with the Detroit Tigers, the organization that drafted me and gave me my first opportunity.”

ESPN.com

It’s a good decision. He already suffered two injuries this season, and is still recovering from the second. At seasonal age 43, his body is finally failing him.

Verlander pretty much accomplished everything a pitcher could want. He recorded seasons leading the league in starts, innings, ERA, complete games, and strikeouts. He won multiple Cy Young awards and an MVP. His 266 wins is remarkable for this era in which every season starters pitch less and less. He threw three no-hitters.

Verlander pitched a bit backwards, often saving his fastest pitches for the later innings, giving him very good numbers through the game. People who want starters to go deep in games, may want their pitchers to save themselves early, so the fast ball explodes late.