Tampa Bay managed just five hits and three walks, their only run coming on a home run by Jonathan Aranda. It’s another low scoring post-season game won by a homer.

The Rays still lead 1-0.

Update: Rasmussen retires the Yankees in order in the top of the seventh inning. He’s now at 94 pitches.

Tarik Skubal pitched six strong innings, allowing a solo shot to Sean Murphy for the only run against him.

Hernandez has now driven in 31 runs in 38 post-season games.

They did walk five times, twice loading the bases on a walk with two out. Each time, a fly out ended the Guardians scoring opportunity.

Often in playoff baseball, the pitching is good and the scoring is low, so the team that homers can win. That’s what happened today. Game two takes place Monday at 5 PM EDT.

At 4 PM, the Braves visit the Dodgers in the first NLDS game. The Braves have not officially announced the starter for the game, but FanGraphs has Didier Fuentes serving as the opener against Tarik Skubal. Fuentes, in a brief MLB career, profiles as a high K, low walk pitcher. I suspect the Braves see him as the best bet against a very strong top of the order for Los Angeles. Skubal gets the nod over Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They are very close in ability. The Braves, however, went 33-25, a .569 winnings percentage when a lefty started against them. They were .587 against righties, so it doesn’t seem like that much of an advantage for LA.

At 6:30 PM, the Yankees visit the Rays in a battle of the top two teams in the American League. Gerrit Cole takes on Drew Rasmussen. Cole is now the fourth starter on New York, and the Rays really need to win this game as they face the gauntlet of the top three NY starters well rested due to the days off on Sunday and Tuesday. Cole pitched with difficulty down the stretch, going 3-3 in six starts with a 4.98 ERA. He allowed 10 home runs in 34 1/3 innings. The Rays are not a big home run team, however. Rasmussen handled the Yankees well in his career, 5-2 in ten appearances with a 1.81 ERA over 59 2/3 innings. He held the Yankees to just three home runs in those games.

Finally, the Padres send Robbie Ray against potential Cy Young winner Jacob Misiorowski and the Brewers. Ray went 3-2 in nine starts for the Padres, but with a 5.02 ERA. Opponents took him deep in that span, hitting seven home runs in 43 innings. Misiorowski struck out 16 and walked jus three batters in the 2025 post season, his first. That led to a 1.50 ERA.

Enjoy!

Here is a comparison of the offenses with league ranks:

The Brewers are the odd group that strikes out often without delivering power. What they do deliver is a high BABIP, leading to top rank in BA and OBP, and plenty of doubles and triples. Apart from a lack of home runs compared to other clubs, this is a very well balanced offense that appears to hit the ball hard.

The Padres only rank high in SB%. Their overall numbers don’t tell the whole story on offense. They improved as the season progressed. In March through May they averaged 3.91 runs per game. In June and July, it rose to 4.50 runs per game. Over the last two months it went up another half run per game to 5.02 R/G. They easily dispatched the Cubs in the Wild Card round, and the Cubs were the highest scoring team in the majors.

Here is the pitching and defense comparison:

Milwaukee does well in all dimensions on the defensive side of the ball. They do seem to allow some unearned runs, however, as they rank higher in ERA than total runs allowed per 9. Limiting home runs helps diminish the effect of the miscues and the walks. The Padres allow surprisingly few runs given the middle of the road ranks of their three-true outcomes. As was noted in the Wild Card preview, the Padres are good at removing base runners.

I like the Brewers being able to start Jacob Misiorowski twice in the series. I also like the consistency of talent on both sides to the ball. The Padres pitching staff does not appear to have the tools to slow down the Brewers. I give Milwaukee a 53% of beating the Padres in the series.

Here is a comparison of the offenses, with AL Ranks:

The Yankees averaged more runs per game than the Rays, despite Tampa Bay being better in most offensive categories. New York is pretty much a three-true outcome offense. They strikeout a ton, and when they do put the ball in the field of play they get poor results. They walk as well as the Rays, but hit a lot a more home runs. Yet the Yankees against the Red Sox seemed much better than that. They seemed more like the Rays, a team that found success putting the ball in play.

Here is the Yankees season in three parts:

So the Yankees team we are seeing now is the happy medium between the March-May peak and the June-July abyss. It’s a team on par with the Rays in scoring. The New York front office did a good job adjusting the roster with youngsters and acquisitions to make this happen.

Here is a comparison of the pitching and defense.

The two teams both rank near the top of the league in run prevention, but the Yankees are near the top in every category. Note that in strikeout rate and home run rate, the Rays do not counter a Yankees offensive strength, while the Yankees high K rate and high defensive efficiency does counter the Rays ability to get on base via a hit.

So these are two evenly matched teams. The Rays probably are a little better on offense right now, but the Yankees pitching nullifies some of those offensive strengths. I give the Yankees a 52% chance of winning the series. The Log5 Method gives the Yankees a 57.5% chance of winning the series bases on the full season stats.

Here is a comparison of the offenses with NL Ranks:

The Dodgers offer an offense that is tough to shut down. As batters, they tend to do everything well. If you team is tough to hit, they’ll draw walks. If your team limits walks, they’ll put the ball in play for hits. If your teams limits on-base, they’ll smack home runs. The Braves tend to be dependent on power, so if the Dodgers pitchers can limit home runs, they have a good chance of winning the games.

Here is a comparison of pitching and defense.

The teams are more evenly matched on the pitching side, but the Dodgers rank better in every category. Two gaps in particular favor Los Angeles. Both offenses own strikeout rates below league average, and the Braves hitters are somewhat dependent on hits for their OBP. The higher Dodgers K rate, combined with an excellent DER, should limit the Braves hits. That will make the Braves dependent on homers for runs, and the Dodgers are better at stopping power as well.

All signs point to Los Angeles winning the series. I estimate the probability at .55. Using the Log5 Method to estimate scoring, that probability comes out at 0.60. So the Dodgers stand a very good chance of advancing to the NLCS.

Here is a comparison of the team offenses, with AL Ranks:

The matchup presents a nice example of why batting average says little about offense. The Guardians own a slightly better BA than the White Sox. Chicago, however, does a better job of getting on base, and a much better job of hitting for power. So the White Sox rank at the top of the AL in runs scored, with Cleveland ranks right around their BA.

It’s also a good example how little stolen bases help score runs, as their ranks are the exact opposite of their ranks in runs per game.

Here is the comparison of pitching and defense.

Chicago’s offense is built around walks and power. Cleveland pitchers will likely rack up a lot of Ks in the series, as Chicago does not seem to care how much their batters strike out. With walk and home run rates in the middle of the league, Cleveland does little to limit the White Sox strengths. The White Sox should hurt Cleveland’s BA a bit, since they are good at turning balls in play into outs.

I would favor the White Sox in this series, giving them about a 52% chance of winning. I decided to do a Log5 calculation to see what that predicts. Log5 says the White Sox should score 4.37 runs per game against Cleveland, while the Guardians score 4.16 runs per game. The Pythagorean estimate puts the White Sox winning percentage at .525, meaning the chance of winning at least three games in a five game series at .546. So a bit better than my prediction. Factoring home field advantage might bring that down a bit closer to mine. It’s just another example of why the there is a lot of luck involved in a post-season series.

Kerr owned a 1.47 ERA in 18 1/3 innings this season, allowing nine hits despite just eleven Ks. That put his BABIP at .200. Waiting in the wings is Grant Holmes. He posted a 3.44 ERA, but his FIPS were in the mid 4s. He achieved that low ERA by holding opponents to a .215/.304/.282 slash line with runners in scoring position.

Enjoy1

The idle Randy Arozarena of the Mariners and Pete Alonso of the Orioles rank third and fourth respectively.

The highest game score of the day came off the bat of Willson Contreras of the Red Sox, a 74. He was the one batter Yankees pitching could not stop, as he went two for two with a home run and two walks in the 9-2 New York win. His season ends with him ranking 49th, four points behind his brother William Contreras, who resumes play in the NLDS this weekend.

The Yankees pounded out 14 hits against Boston, as most hitters on the team seemed to take a ball in play approach, but batters still struck out 10 times. Max Fried gave the team six strong innings, allowing just one run on three hits.

In San Diego, the Padres swept their series with the Cubs, winning the game 4-1. Starter Nick Pivetta lasted just 3 1/3 innings, giving up one run, but the Padres bullpen pitched scoreless ball over 5 2/3 innings. The Cubs came in with the highest runs per game in the majors, but scored just once in the two games. San Diego heads to Milwaukee for the division series, pitting two 1969 expansion teams against each other neither ever having won a World Championship.

They are slated to play in Cleveland Saturday afternoon at 1 PM.

I had high hopes that Posey would buck the trend of superstar players turning into terrible executives, that he’d be more Mario Lemieux than Derek Jeter or Michael Jordan, but those hopes are dwindling. He did a nice job navigating the trade deadline and has greatly improved the farm system, but his decisions at the major league level are becoming increasingly difficult to defend. He’s made a lot of bad bets, which would be more palatable if he were willing to move on from them once it became clear they weren’t working. Instead, he’s doubling down.

SFGate.com

Putting together a baseball team is a lot tougher than some teams make it look. He’ll get another year to prove he knows how to build, and then we’ll see.

When I changed the channel to the White Sox/Astros game, Chicago was already up 4-0.

Sean Burke and Hunter Brown get the nods for game two of the White Sox at the Astros, as the teams go with actual starting pitchers today. Burke did a great job limiting hits and power in 2026. His high K rate led to just 144 hits in 172 1/3 innings, with a .380 slugging percentage against. Injuries held Brown to just 107 1/3 innings in 2026. His strikeouts remained high, but his walk rate jumped to 4.61 per 9 IP versus a career mark of 3.30 per 9 IP. He got away with that as batters only slugged .318 against him. The teams may need longer offensive series to score runs today.

The Red Sox and Yankees offer another excellent pitching matchup as Sonny Gray takes on Max Fried, a New York win sending them to Tampa Bay to play the Rays. Gray faced the Yankees twice this season, allowing three runs in 13 2/3 innings, the Yankees homering twice off him. Fried owns a 5.31 post-season ERA. Since 2021, he’s been all or nothing in 10 starts. He did not allow a run in three of those, but overall his ERA stands at 6.22.

Finally, the Padres look to advance to Milwaukee as they aim to take two in a row against the Cubs. Kevin Gausman battles Nick Pivetta. Guasman owns a 4.83 ERA since joining the Cubs. He gave up eleven home runs in 50 1/3 innings with Chicago. Pivetta only threw 34 2/3 innings this season, but nearly matched his 2.87 ERA from 2025, coming in at 2.86. In 39 starts in two season for San Diego he is 16-7 with a 2.87 ERA. He struck out 232 batters in 216 1/3 innings, walking just 58.

Enjoy!

Ben Rice of the Yankees posted the highest game score of the night, an 89, in a 9-0 win over the Red Sox. He hit a single, double, and two home runs, including a grand slam. That moved him into fourth place in the rankings. He is now 8 for 23 in seven post-season games, with two doubles, three home runs, and 10 RBI.

Cam Schlittler threw 117 pitches in his 6 1/3 innings. I was very surprised by that total, and we’ll see how he does the rest of the post season. In general, the young Yankees put the team in the driver seat for this series.

Hagen Smith served as the Chicago opener, and wound up giving the team three-shutout innings, and that helped keep the rest of the pen fresh, with only five pitchers taking the mound. The Astros used nine.

Wilson, 57, a former catcher for the Mariners who is in the franchise’s Hall of Fame, took over as manager when the club fired Scott Servais during the 2024 campaign. Last season, after leading Seattle to a 90-72 record and an American League West title, he finished in third place in AL Manager of the Year voting, behind the Toronto Blue Jays’ John Schneider and the Cleveland Guardians’ Stephen Vogt, who won the award.

But this season was a struggle in Seattle. Even with Sunday’s win, the Mariners finished 76-86. They will head into the offseason with a third-place standing in the AL West, after being officially eliminated from playoff contention on Thursday.

“It’s a very difficult day,” Wilson said, holding back tears. “We love this city. We love this community. And we appreciate the organization for what it’s meant to our family.”

ESPN.com

I find this bothersome. What made Wilson great in 2025 that made him poor in 2026? Can’t a team have a bad season without it being the manager’s fault? Or were there lots of bad decisions in 2025 that just worked out well? I would love for a GM to give a critique or the problems, rather that just making change to make a change.

1. Cleveland Guardians/Indians – 1948
2. Milwaukee Brewers/Seattle Pilots – 1969*
3. San Diego Padres -1969*
4. Tampa Bay Rays – 1998*
5. Chicago White Sox – 2005
6. Philadelphia Phillies – 2008
7. New York Yankees – 2009
8. Chicago Cubs – 2016
9. Boston Red Sox – 2018
10. Atlanta Braves – 2021
11. Houston Astros – 2022
12. Los Angeles Dodgers – 2025 (Repeat winner)

In a nice example of history repeating, the Red Sox won five World Series titles at the start of the 20th century, ending in 1918, and not winning another until 2004. At the start of the 21st century, the Red Sox won four World Series titles, ending in 2018. I suspect I won’t be around in 2104 to see their next one.

The White Sox open their series against the Astros in Houston with Hagen Smith facing AJ Blubaugh. If you haven’t heard of them, that’s okay. Both are rookie relievers, although Blubaugh did pitch some in 2025. Both teams burned their starters trying to win their divisions, and who wants their fourth starter going in game one! Smith gave up just eleven hits in 28 innings this season, striking out 41. He was a bit wild, walking 16 batters. He pitched two scoreless inning in his one start this season. Blubaugh also did a great job limiting hits, giving up 76 safeties in 96 innings, all in relief. Like Smith, Blubaugh is wild with a high walk rate. The difference is that batters were able to connect for 13 homers off the Astros opener, Smith gave up just one.

The Red Sox face the Yankees in The Bronx in primetime, Payton Tolle battling Cam Schlittler as the youngsters take center stage. Both these pitchers blow away batters. Among hurlers with 148 innings, Schlitter ranked fifth in the majors with 11.11 K per 9 IP. Tolle came in twelfth at 10.35 K per 9 IP. Both did a great job of limiting walks and home runs, also. Tolle shut down the Yankees in his two starts against them, allowing one run and four hits in 13 innings, the one run coming on a solo homer. Schlittler challenged the Red Sox four times in 2026, posting a 0.74 ERA in 24 1/3 innings. The two runs he allowed both came on solo home runs. One gets the feeling that the team with the most home runs wins tonight.

Finally, the Cubs get to enjoy the San Diego weather as they open their series against the Padres, prime time on west coast. Matthew Boyd faces Michael King, as the teams clinched early enough to save a good starter for game one. In the last two seasons, Boyd posted better ERAs than his FIPs as his K rate deteriorated. He is very good at removing base runners, with 24 double plays induced, six caught stealing, and 15 pickoffs over the two seasons. King is the clear ace of the San Diego staff. He did a good job limiting power in 2026, and the Cubs offense led the NL in slugging percentage this year. The Padres need the win in game one, as they’ll need to slug with the Cubs the rest of the way to win the series.

Enjoy!