The Blue Jays lead the Orioles 4-1 in the bottom of the sixth inning.

If there is a tie, it would be settled by the best combined winning percentage against the other three teams. That’s currently held by Texas.at 12-6.

and

In other words, if two teams own .320 OBPs, and one hits .280 and the other hits .270, the .280 team is more entertaining. Batting average is our shorthand for hit generation, but we all know that BA has lots of problems.

My guess is what we really want is high OBPs, where the high numbers come from lots of hits instead of lots walks.

This spreadsheet looks at the makeup of OBP since 1920, hits, walks, and hit by pitch. It graphs the percentage of hits making up that group, and it has been shrinking over time with a slope of -0.033.

There were eras above and below trend, especially in the first 50 years of the study. Since the end of the PED era, there was a long stretch above trend, as pitchers feared the home run less. That, of course, changed in recent years as legal ways of getting stronger brought batters to close to the same place. Shifts and strikeouts countered that, and hits started disappearing again.

The question MLB really faces is how to keep OBP where it is, but shift the composition to more hits.

The Rangers and Diamondbacks also sit just outside the third wild card slot as they finish their series in Arizona. Cal Quantrill faces Eduardo Rodriguez. Quantrill stands 8-5 with a 2.89 ERA, his best ERA since he went 8-3 with a 2.89 ERA in 2021. Working a lot in relief this season, his innings are at 102 2/3, rather than 149 2/3 of that previous season. Rodriguez’s 2.55 ERA would be the best single season mark of his career. His demonic 6.66 K per 9 innings is balanced by the Diamondbacks defense helping him to a .269 BABIP.

Enjoy!

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.291, 0.695, 0.683 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Andrew Painter.
• 0.288, 0.687, 0.666 — Keibert Ruiz batting vs. Grayson Rodriguez.
• 0.286, 0.687, 0.666 — Randal Grichuk batting at Michael McGreevy.
• 0.274, 0.709, 0.719 — Luis Arraez batting at Grant Holmes.
• 0.273, 0.689, 0.677 — Nick Gonzales batting at Matt Boyd.
• 0.272, 0.671, 0.662 — Drake Baldwin batting vs. Andrew Painter.
• 0.269, 0.677, 0.665 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Trevor Rogers.
• 0.268, 0.683, 0.651 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Emmet Sheehan.
• 0.268, 0.662, 0.637 — Tristan Peters batting at Michael McGreevy.
• 0.267, 0.661, 0.638 — Mauricio Dubon batting vs. Andrew Painter.

It’s another low hit average, low probability day. Harris is a low walk, high BABIP batter whose hits make up most of his OBP. Someone who is great at picking up hits but poor at getting on base tends to do well in these lists.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.274, 0.709, 0.719 — Luis Arraez batting at Grant Holmes.
• 0.291, 0.695, 0.683 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Andrew Painter.
• 0.251, 0.693, 0.697 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Hayden Wesneski.
• 0.273, 0.689, 0.677 — Nick Gonzales batting at Matt Boyd.
• 0.286, 0.687, 0.666 — Randal Grichuk batting at Michael McGreevy.
• 0.288, 0.687, 0.666 — Keibert Ruiz batting vs. Grayson Rodriguez.
• 0.268, 0.683, 0.651 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Emmet Sheehan.
• 0.263, 0.679, 0.682 — Jake Mangum batting at Matt Boyd.
• 0.269, 0.677, 0.665 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Trevor Rogers.
• 0.262, 0.676, 0.658 — Yainer Diaz batting at Freddy Peralta.

Arraez is the only batter today with both probabilities over .700.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

• 0.274, 0.709, 0.719 — Luis Arraez batting at Grant Holmes.
• 0.251, 0.693, 0.697 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Hayden Wesneski.
• 0.291, 0.695, 0.683 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Andrew Painter.
• 0.263, 0.679, 0.682 — Jake Mangum batting at Matt Boyd.
• 0.273, 0.689, 0.677 — Nick Gonzales batting at Matt Boyd.
• 0.257, 0.674, 0.669 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Cal Quantrill.
• 0.240, 0.663, 0.668 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Payton Tolle.
• 0.286, 0.687, 0.666 — Randal Grichuk batting at Michael McGreevy.
• 0.288, 0.687, 0.666 — Keibert Ruiz batting vs. Grayson Rodriguez.
• 0.269, 0.677, 0.665 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Trevor Rogers.

Harris and Arraez tie for the consensus top pick, giving you a double down in one game.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Third and fourth place belong to Alex Bregman and Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs respectively. Bregman singled and collected two hit by pitches to in the 4-3 win over the Pirates. PCA posted an 0 for 4 to fall down a couple of notches.

Elly De La Cruz of the Reds rounds out the top five after a collecting two doubles in five trips to the plate in a 13-9 Brewers win. Milwaukee now leads the Dodgers for best record in the NL by 2 1/2 games, but only two games in the AFILC.

In that game, Garrett Mitchell of the Brewers posted the highest game score of the day, an 81. He went four for five with a double and a home run, driving in four runs. At seasonal age 27, Mitchell got to play everyday and his on-base skills emerged. He owns a .357 mark. He’s added a decent number of doubles and triples to go with his OBP.

Note that their offense is concentrated in the top four slots of the batting order. All have excellent OBPs and decent slugging outside the leadoff slot. The six through nine slots don’t produce much, so if a team can get through the top of the order, the pitchers can take a breather. The Rays try to make up for the bottom of the order with one-run strategies. They lead the majors in sacrifice hits and stolen base attempts.

The pitching and defense side, the Rays allow 4.13 runs per game with a 3.79 ERA, also seventh. They do a very good job of limiting hits and walks, and they do that without a high K rate. They feature the best defensive efficiency in the majors.

As you might expect given their ranks in runs allowed and scored, they stand eight games above their Pythagorean projection, and seven games over .500 in one-run contests with a 21-14 record.

They are a good team that makes the most of their opportunities. We’ll see how far that carries them in the playoffs.

The White Sox lead in the AL Central is down to 1/2 game over the Guardians as Chicago sends Sean Newcomb against the Cardinals and Kyle Leahy. Newcomb enters the day with a 2.71 ERA, making his fifth appearance as an opener. He does the job well, having not allowed a run in 8 1/3 inning in the role, allowing just two hits. Leahy built on his 2025 performance of a 3.07 ERA in 88 innings with a 3.41 ERA in 132 innings this year. His record stands at 10-4, but the team is just 13-14 when Leahy doesn’t get the decision.

Finally, the Rangers send Kumar Rocker against the Diamondbacks and Brandon Pfaadt, both teams on the outside of the playoff picture trying to make a final run. Rocker pitched poorly down the stretch, giving up lots of hits despite a high K rate, and a good chunk of those hits were home runs. Pfaadt stepped it up, with a 2.54 ERA since the middle of July. He is the opposite of Rocker, limiting hits despite a low K rate.

Enjoy!

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.317, 0.690, 0.669 — Eduardo Valencia batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.314, 0.692, 0.693 — Riley Greene batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.307, 0.683, 0.682 — Colt Keith batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.305, 0.681, 0.679 — Kevin McGonigle batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.301, 0.672, 0.657 — Hao Yu Lee batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.300, 0.677, 0.683 — Dillon Dingler batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.299, 0.673, 0.665 — Javier Baez batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.298, 0.669, 0.653 — Gleyber Torres batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.295, 0.722, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting at Tyler Mahle.
• 0.294, 0.663, 0.643 — Maxwell Clark batting vs. Tanner Gordon.

It’s not often you see a backup catcher top a Beat the Streak list. Valencia only came to the plate 95 times in his rookie season, walked once, struck out 26 times, but collected 28 hits. Fourteen of those went for extra bases, giving him a .301/.316/.581 slash line. Gordon is just so bad, that even highly regressed, Valencia does well. Detroit has a 1 PM start, so he may get the start in a day game after a night game.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.295, 0.722, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting at Tyler Mahle.
• 0.261, 0.700, 0.707 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Peter Lambert.
• 0.292, 0.695, 0.686 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. Brady Singer.
• 0.287, 0.693, 0.676 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting vs. Zachary Thornton
• 0.314, 0.692, 0.693 — Riley Greene batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.317, 0.690, 0.669 — Eduardo Valencia batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.288, 0.688, 0.663 — Randal Grichuk batting at Kyle Leahy.
• 0.277, 0.683, 0.680 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Kumar Rocker.
• 0.307, 0.683, 0.682 — Colt Keith batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.305, 0.681, 0.679 — Kevin McGonigle batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.286, 0.681, 0.644 — Andrew Vaughn batting vs. Brady Singer.

The NN picks the more traditional Arraez/Simpson double down, although the Tigers batters do well. Greene beats out Valencia here.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

• 0.295, 0.722, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting at Tyler Mahle.
• 0.261, 0.700, 0.707 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Peter Lambert.
• 0.262, 0.679, 0.694 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Ranger Suarez
• 0.314, 0.692, 0.693 — Riley Greene batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.292, 0.695, 0.686 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. Brady Singer.
• 0.300, 0.677, 0.683 — Dillon Dingler batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.307, 0.683, 0.682 — Colt Keith batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.277, 0.683, 0.680 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Kumar Rocker.
• 0.305, 0.681, 0.679 — Kevin McGonigle batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
• 0.287, 0.693, 0.676 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting vs. Zachary Thornton.
• 0.317, 0.690, 0.669 — Eduardo Valencia batting vs. Tanner Gordon.

The LR agrees with the NN top two, with Valencia 11th. Arraez takes the consensus top slot, with Greene the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs singled and walked in their 12-2 rout of the Pirates for second place. His teammate, Alex Bregman, posted a three for four with a double and a home run to move into fourth place.

Junior Caminero of the Rays became the first AL player to reach forty home runs this season as his walk-off two-run shout beat the Astros 3-1 and moved him into fifth place. The Rays clinched a playoff slot with the win.

The best game score of the day came off the bat of Brice Turang of the Brewers, an 81. He went three for three with a double, home run, and a walk in a 20-0 win over the Reds. The Brewers also clinched a playoff slot. (At this point I am rooting for a Rays-Brewers World Series.) Turang, in his fourth season, equaled his home run total from last year, 18, and already exceeded his doubles and triples counts. At seasonal age 26, he is peaking at just the right time to help push the Brewers over the edge into a championship.

The Phillies take their last shot at trying to directly chase down the Braves as they open a weekend series in Atlanta. Aaron Nola faced Chris Sale. Nola owns a 4.76 ERA this season, but since late July holds a 2.31 ERA in eight starts. Sale pitched well all year and will be on a lot of Cy Young ballots in a couple of weeks.

Enjoy!

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.301, 0.699, 0.703 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Chris Bassitt.
• 0.297, 0.692, 0.673 — Randal Grichuk batting at Matthew Liberatore.
• 0.294, 0.696, 0.700 — Freddie Freeman batting at Ryan Gusto.
• 0.290, 0.693, 0.683 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Aaron Nola.
• 0.288, 0.670, 0.625 — Brett Bateman batting vs. Chris Bassitt.
• 0.286, 0.673, 0.651 — Nathan Lukes batting vs. Chris Bassitt.
• 0.285, 0.675, 0.664 — Alejandro Kirk batting vs. Chris Bassitt.
• 0.283, 0.674, 0.654 — Tristan Peters batting at Matthew Liberatore.
• 0.281, 0.668, 0.648 — Henry Bolte batting vs. George Kirby.
• 0.280, 0.678, 0.652 — Keibert Ruiz batting vs. Yusei Kikuchi.
• 0.280, 0.711, 0.725 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Miguel Ullola.
• 0.280, 0.673, 0.680 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting vs. Chris Bassitt.
• 0.280, 0.661, 0.627 — Jeff McNeil batting vs. George Kirby.

It looks like a good day for the Blue Jays as Bassitt owns a .298 opposition BA this season, with a K rated of just 6.43 per 9 IP. Clement strikes out in only about 10% of his plate appearances.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.280, 0.711, 0.725 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Miguel Ullola.
• 0.270, 0.708, 0.715 — Luis Arraez batting at Chris Sale.
• 0.301, 0.699, 0.703 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Chris Bassitt.
• 0.294, 0.696, 0.700 — Freddie Freeman batting at Ryan Gusto.
• 0.290, 0.693, 0.683 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Aaron Nola.
• 0.297, 0.692, 0.673 — Randal Grichuk batting at Matthew Liberatore.
• 0.267, 0.689, 0.688 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Miguel Ullola.
• 0.271, 0.688, 0.674 — Nick Gonzales batting at Shota Imanaga.
• 0.293, 0.688, 0.671 — Ceddanne Rafaela batting vs. Seth Lugo.
• 0.266, 0.683, 0.700 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Sonny Gray.

Simpson is now just two points behind Yordan Alvarez of the Astros in the batting average race in the American League, with Simpson’s teammate Yandy Diaz just three points behind Simpson. Should we care?

Batting average is an entertainment stat, as opposed to a predictive stat. The synonym for the word batter is hitter, not walker. Walks can be boring, walks are time consuming, and walks keep coming because their a defensive value to them. Even though it doesn’t matter how you get to a .340 OBP, I’d much rather see (and I think most fans would rather see) a player get there with a ton of hits rather than a ton of walks.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

• 0.280, 0.711, 0.725 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Miguel Ullola.
• 0.270, 0.708, 0.715 — Luis Arraez batting at Chris Sale.
• 0.301, 0.699, 0.703 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Chris Bassitt.
• 0.266, 0.683, 0.700 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Sonny Gray.
• 0.294, 0.696, 0.700 — Freddie Freeman batting at Ryan Gusto.
• 0.267, 0.689, 0.688 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Miguel Ullola.
• 0.257, 0.655, 0.687 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. Seth Lugo.
• 0.263, 0.681, 0.685 — Jake Mangum batting at Shota Imanaga.
• 0.290, 0.693, 0.683 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Aaron Nola.
• 0.280, 0.673, 0.680 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting vs. Chris Bassitt.

So Clement ranks at the consensus top pick, as he ranks high on all three lists. Arraez is 6 for 19 against Sale with no strikeouts. I would not have expected that as Sale owns the platoon advantage and teams do set Arraez against lefties. Freeman and Simpson tie for the consensus second pick. Note that Freeman is listed as day to day.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

The top game score of the day came off the bat of Anthony Volpe of the Yankees, a 75. He went three for four with a grand slam and five RBI in a 10-3 rout of the Rockies. Volpe was called up to replace the injured Jazz Chisholm Jr. at second base. Volpe hit .260./.342/.508 in 203 PA at AA and AAA this season. So with health and time to adjust, maybe Volpe will be able to return to the majors permanently. Too many shortstops is a good problem.

The Dodgers pitchers and defense currently rank second in runs allowed per game, 3.83 runs per game. Note that while the Dodgers allowed eleven more earned runs than the Brewers, they allowed eleven fewer runs overall. That suggests a much better defense, or a least a more error free defense. The team allowed the second lowest BABIP in the majors, and owns the highest defensive efficiency.

Note the Dodgers did all this with their big three, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts all showing signs of aging, and catcher Will Smith missing a number of games due to injury. The team always has depth, which allows them to overcome down years, and also allows them to heal for October. They are not a good as last year, but they are still a formidable opponent.

Note that this decade, games where the starter pitched exactly six shutout innings, teams are 984 and 200, .831. If they go an extra innings, seven, teams are 764-100, .874. Just a small example how early bullpen use might backfire.

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.311, 0.731, 0.751 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Cristian Javier.
• 0.302, 0.702, 0.696 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting vs. Ryan Feltner.
• 0.284, 0.691, 0.678 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Nick Martinez.
• 0.270, 0.708, 0.721 — Chandler Simpson batting at Martin Perez.
• 0.269, 0.665, 0.643 — Brandon Marsh batting vs. Cristian Javier.
• 0.268, 0.656, 0.639 — Cody Bellinger batting vs. Ryan Feltner.
• 0.266, 0.666, 0.654 — Drake Baldwin batting vs. Nick Martinez.
• 0.265, 0.652, 0.633 — Paul Goldschmidt batting vs. Ryan Feltner.
• 0.264, 0.656, 0.655 — Amed Rosario batting vs. Ryan Feltner.
• 0.263, 0.659, 0.635 — Mauricio Dubon batting vs. Nick Martinez.

There are only five games on the schedule today, but luckily some of the best Beat the Streak hitters are in action.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.311, 0.731, 0.751 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Cristian Javier.
• 0.270, 0.708, 0.721 — Chandler Simpson batting at Martin Perez.
• 0.302, 0.702, 0.696 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting vs. Ryan Feltner.
• 0.284, 0.691, 0.678 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Nick Martinez.
• 0.255, 0.682, 0.678 — Yandy Diaz batting at Martin Perez.
• 0.237, 0.670, 0.647 — Nick Gonzales batting at Hagen Smith.
• 0.266, 0.666, 0.654 — Drake Baldwin batting vs. Nick Martinez.
• 0.269, 0.665, 0.643 — Brandon Marsh batting vs. Cristian Javier.
• 0.231, 0.664, 0.662 — Jake Mangum batting at Hagen Smith.
• 0.259, 0.660, 0.667 — Trea Turner batting vs. Cristian Javier.

Arraez and Simpson top the list often lately, although none of the top hitters here own a long streak at the moment.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

• 0.311, 0.731, 0.751 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Cristian Javier.
• 0.270, 0.708, 0.721 — Chandler Simpson batting at Martin Perez.
• 0.302, 0.702, 0.696 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting vs. Ryan Feltner.
• 0.255, 0.682, 0.678 — Yandy Diaz batting at Martin Perez.
• 0.284, 0.691, 0.678 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Nick Martinez.
• 0.259, 0.660, 0.667 — Trea Turner batting vs. Cristian Javier.
• 0.257, 0.650, 0.663 — Aaron Judge batting vs. Ryan Feltner.
• 0.231, 0.664, 0.662 — Jake Mangum batting at Hagen Smith.
• 0.264, 0.656, 0.655 — Amed Rosario batting vs. Ryan Feltner.
• 0.266, 0.666, 0.654 — Drake Baldwin batting vs. Nick Martinez.

Arraez is unanimous at the top pick, with Simpson and Garcia tying as the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs did play, going one for three with a walk in an 8-6 Brewers win for second place. The Cubs go out with a whimper as the Brewers sweep the series. The Brewers magic number stands at five to win the NL Central.

Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres posted a three for five in a 9-2 win over the Nationals, San Diego passing Arizona to move into the third wild card slot in the NL. Tatis’ teammate, Jackson Merrill, posted the highest game score of the day, a 92. He missed the cycle by a double, going four for five with a triple, two home runs and six RBI. It was the 16th game score of the season of 90 or better, and the first in September. There were 25 such games last year.

Elly De La Cruz of the Reds ranks fourth after homering for the only team run in a 14-1 Dodgers win. Randy Arozarena of the Mariners rounds out the top five as he doubled in a 3-2 win over the Rangers.

On offense, their strength is their ability to reach base, currently leading the majors with a .340 OBP. Hits contribute a lot to that as their .257 BA is second to the Rays. They do not slug well, as they are about league average at generating power due to a lack of home runs. They do well generating doubles and triples.

For a high scoring team, they play a lot of small ball. They try to steal often, and while there SB total is good, their SB% is just about league average. They also rank fourth in sacrifice hits. Despite all the one-run strategy plays, they are just 23-19 in one runs games.

On the pitching side they stand second in ERA, so you might say the pitchers are doing a better job preventing runs than the fielders. They stand second in strikeouts per nine innings. Few hits come with high K rates, and they are tied for the lowest hits per 9 in the majors with the Dodgers. Their defensive efficiency is good, just not elite. If that is their weakness, they don’t have much of a weakness.

We’ll see how the offense works for them in the playoffs. A home run is sometimes the best way to win a well pitched game, crush the mistake. One-run strategies require men to get on base, and then contact or great base running to move men around. I would probably bet on a high-power team against them.

The Astros continue their series with the Phillies as Houston presses for another AL West title. Hunter Brown and Cristopher Sanchez take the mound. Brown gave the Astros rotation a boost, going 5-3 with a 3.31 ERA in sixteen starts since returning from an injury. He accomplished that despite a walk rate of 4.76 per 9 IP, about 1.5 BB per 9 IP higher than his career average. Sanchez goes for his 17th win, still having an outside shot at 20 Ws on the season.

Enjoy!

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.314, 0.709, 0.709 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting vs. Tomoyuki Sugano.
• 0.304, 0.702, 0.709 — Ernie Clement batting at Brady Basso.
• 0.301, 0.700, 0.721 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Zac Gallen.
• 0.299, 0.688, 0.674 — Michael Massey batting vs. Zac Gallen.
• 0.296, 0.680, 0.670 — Josh Naylor batting vs. Cody Bradford.
• 0.295, 0.676, 0.634 — Jac Caglianone batting vs. Zac Gallen.
• 0.294, 0.701, 0.695 — Nick Gonzales batting at Davis Martin.
• 0.290, 0.671, 0.629 — Brett Bateman batting at Brady Basso.
• 0.289, 0.692, 0.669 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Robert Stock.
• 0.288, 0.678, 0.671 — Alejandro Kirk batting at Brady Basso.

At seasonal age 26,Garcia developed into a slugger who doesn’t strike out much an doesn’t walk much. His BABIP stands low, but he makes up for it with long balls. Sugano also owns low walk and strikeout rates, and gives up home runs.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.286, 0.715, 0.731 — Chandler Simpson batting at Reynaldo Lopez.
• 0.314, 0.709, 0.709 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting vs. Tomoyuki Sugano.
• 0.304, 0.702, 0.709 — Ernie Clement batting at Brady Basso.
• 0.294, 0.701, 0.695 — Nick Gonzales batting at Davis Martin.
• 0.301, 0.700, 0.721 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Zac Gallen.
• 0.251, 0.696, 0.700 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Hunter Brown.
• 0.286, 0.696, 0.709 — Jake Mangum batting at Davis Martin.
• 0.272, 0.692, 0.691 — Yandy Diaz batting at Reynaldo Lopez.
• 0.289, 0.692, 0.669 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Robert Stock.
• 0.299, 0.688, 0.674 — Michael Massey batting vs. Zac Gallen.
• 0.286, 0.688, 0.667 — Javier Sanoja batting vs. Robert Stock.

Simpson makes the top of this list, and was just off the top ten in the Log5 list.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

• 0.286, 0.715, 0.731 — Chandler Simpson batting at Reynaldo Lopez.
• 0.301, 0.700, 0.721 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Zac Gallen.
• 0.314, 0.709, 0.709 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting vs. Tomoyuki Sugano.
• 0.304, 0.702, 0.709 — Ernie Clement batting at Brady Basso.
• 0.286, 0.696, 0.709 — Jake Mangum batting at Davis Martin.
• 0.251, 0.696, 0.700 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Hunter Brown.
• 0.282, 0.684, 0.697 — Bo Bichette batting at Janson Junk.
• 0.294, 0.701, 0.695 — Nick Gonzales batting at Davis Martin.
• 0.272, 0.692, 0.691 — Yandy Diaz batting at Reynaldo Lopez.
• 0.284, 0.678, 0.690 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting at Brady Basso.

The two probability models agree with Simpson at the top of the list, but Garcia takes the consensus top slot with Clement the double down choice. There are lots of afternoon games to day so get your picks in early!

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres drew a walk in a 5-4 win over the Nationals for third place.

Junior Caminero of the Rays moved back into the top five, taking fourth place with a two for three game, including a walk and a home run in a 7-1 win over the Braves. That puts him one home run ahead of Yordan Alvarez of the Astros, putting Alvarez’s triple crown big in jeopardy. Elly De La Cruz of the Reds takes the fifth spot in the rankings with a two for four, the two hits going for a double and a home run. The Dodgers took the game 3-2. De La Cruz is on fire, with a .455/.507/.788 slash line in his last 16 games. He collected multiple hits in six consecutive games.

I’m used to Patrick Sandoval-pitched games landing multiple opposing batters on the Log5 list. I guess it says something about the Angels that only Meckler makes the cut.

I notice that Sandoval has had a losing record in each of his seven seasons, and has never come closer than 3 wins to even a .500 record. I wonder what the longest career for a starting pitcher is with all losing seasons…tried a Google search but couldn’t find such a list.

Here is the list since 1920. It includes 2026, so it may not be the same at the end of the year:

Corbin Burnes makes his 2026 debut for the Diamondbacks after spending the season recovering from Tommy John surgery. The former ace faces Michael Wacha of the Royals. Burnes stands 63-38 for his career with a 3.15 ERA, and if he can perform well, gives the Diamondbacks a boost as they push for the third wild card slot in the NL. Wacha comes in hot, with a 2.51 ERA in his last nine starts. He did allow ten home runs in that time, however.

Enjoy!

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.299, 0.685, 0.658 — Wade Meckler batting at Patrick Sandoval.
• 0.296, 0.680, 0.669 — Josh Naylor batting vs. Cody Bradford.
• 0.293, 0.719, 0.736 — Chandler Simpson batting at AJ Smith-Shawver.
• 0.284, 0.677, 0.640 — Andrew Vaughn batting vs. David Peterson.
• 0.284, 0.689, 0.666 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Sean Manaea.
• 0.282, 0.682, 0.672 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. David Peterson.
• 0.282, 0.684, 0.673 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Nick Lodolo.
• 0.280, 0.657, 0.635 — Dominic Canzone batting vs. Cody Bradford.
• 0.280, 0.684, 0.661 — Javier Sanoja batting vs. Sean Manaea.
• 0.279, 0.650, 0.606 — Jhonny Pereda batting vs. Cody Bradford.

Meckler stands as a rather unusual hitter. He is a singles hitter who strikes out a ton. When he does make contact, his career BABIP stands at .379, giving him a .285 BA. He also draws plenty of walks with a .361 OBP. Now, a .361 OBP strikes me as very useful, but he wallowed in the minors for a long time. Seems like he could have been a useful lead-off man, or a number nine hitter for a team that wanted to put power at the top of the lineup.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.293, 0.719, 0.736 — Chandler Simpson batting at AJ Smith-Shawver.
• 0.254, 0.699, 0.704 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Hayden Wesneski.
• 0.278, 0.695, 0.697 — Yandy Diaz batting at AJ Smith-Shawver.
• 0.284, 0.689, 0.666 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Sean Manaea.
• 0.299, 0.685, 0.658 — Wade Meckler batting at Patrick Sandoval.
• 0.282, 0.684, 0.673 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Nick Lodolo.
• 0.280, 0.684, 0.661 — Javier Sanoja batting vs. Sean Manaea.
• 0.278, 0.683, 0.662 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting vs. Gabriel Hughes.
• 0.275, 0.682, 0.673 — Chase DeLauter batting at Brandon Young.
• 0.282, 0.682, 0.672 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. David Peterson.

It’s another low probability day, with Simpson topping the list. Smith-Shawver tends to issue a lot of walks, something that Simpson avoids, and that may work out to the detriment of Simpson if he chases pitches out of the strike zone.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

• 0.293, 0.719, 0.736 — Chandler Simpson batting at AJ Smith-Shawver.
• 0.254, 0.699, 0.704 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Hayden Wesneski.
• 0.278, 0.695, 0.697 — Yandy Diaz batting at AJ Smith-Shawver.
• 0.272, 0.680, 0.686 — Jeremy Pena batting at Andrew Painter.
• 0.273, 0.679, 0.679 — Yainer Diaz batting at Andrew Painter.
• 0.270, 0.681, 0.677 — Ernie Clement batting at Jackson Perkins.
• 0.275, 0.680, 0.676 — Yordan Alvarez batting at Andrew Painter.
• 0.275, 0.682, 0.673 — Chase DeLauter batting at Brandon Young.
• 0.282, 0.684, 0.673 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Nick Lodolo.
• 0.282, 0.682, 0.672 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. David Peterson.

The NN and LR agree at the top, but there is not a lot of agreement among the three systems today. Simpson is the only top ranked player who makes all three cuts. Freeman seems to be the consensus double down choice, but Arraez is probably the better pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!