The Guardians visit the Rangers with Parker Messick facing Kumar Rocker. Messick is another second season starter with a great ERA. His stands at 2.39 in 19 starts and 109 innings. He struck out 112 batters while walking just 27. Rocker, like Young, improved his ERA by cutting down on homers allowed. His ERA went from 5.74 in 2025 to 3.54 this season.

Enjoy!

The Dodgers did play, but gave Shohei Ohtani the evening off, and he remains in second place. The Diamondbacks took the game 3-2.

Jackson Chourio of the Brewers posted the highest game score of the day, an 83. He went three for four with two home runs and a walk in a 12-9 Giants win. He’s hitting .303/.373/.505 after starting the season on the illjured list.

Having experienced discomfort over the past several weeks that was initially diagnosed as a bone bruise near his right rib cage, Judge underwent an MRI on Tuesday at the direction of Dr. Gregory J. Pearl of Dallas, Texas, who specializes in “thoracic outlet syndrome management in high-performance athletes,” according to his practice’s website.

Judge missed his first game of the season on Tuesday after reporting discomfort during the club’s series against the Athletics in West Sacramento. According to manager Aaron Boone, Judge has been managing discomfort in his right shoulder for “the last couple of weeks,” though he only feels it when swinging.

MLB.com

Judge hit .163/.263/.265 over his last 13 games, another example of the a slump being caused by an injury. Note his eye for walks was right on. Luckily for the Yankees, pitching is their strength this season, so they may be able to weather this injury well.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.315, 0.702 — Alec Burleson batting vs. Brady Singer.
• 0.300, 0.667 — Jordan Walker batting vs. Brady Singer.
• 0.299, 0.714 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Brandon Young.
• 0.297, 0.716 — Luis Arraez batting at Edward Cabrera.
• 0.296, 0.707 — Yandy Diaz batting at Ryan Gusto.
• 0.293, 0.700 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at Edward Cabrera.
• 0.290, 0.705 — Brandon Marsh batting vs. Anthony Kay.
• 0.289, 0.701 — Chandler Simpson batting at Ryan Gusto.
• 0.283, 0.700 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Zebby Matthews.
• 0.278, 0.689 — Troy Johnston batting vs. Brandon Sproat.

Singer’s strikeouts per nine innings dropped two per nine this season, and his BABIP went up. He allows more balls in play, and they find holes. On top of that, he allowed 16 home runs in 51 innings. Burleson and Walker can take advantage of that, as both own high BABIPs, and Walker adds a lot of power.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.297, 0.716 — Luis Arraez batting at Edward Cabrera.
• 0.299, 0.714 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Brandon Young.
• 0.296, 0.707 — Yandy Diaz batting at Ryan Gusto.
• 0.290, 0.705 — Brandon Marsh batting vs. Anthony Kay.
• 0.315, 0.702 — Alec Burleson batting vs. Brady Singer.
• 0.289, 0.701 — Chandler Simpson batting at Ryan Gusto.
• 0.293, 0.700 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at Edward Cabrera.
• 0.283, 0.700 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Zebby Matthews.
• 0.278, 0.689 — Troy Johnston batting vs. Brandon Sproat.
• 0.278, 0.688 — Jackson Chourio batting at Ryan Feltner.

The lists are 90% in agreement on the batters, the order differs however. Arraez and Clement own the high probabilities. Arraez and Clement tie for the consensus top choice, with Burleson just behind them.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.293, 0.669 — Ben Rice batting vs. Slade Cecconi.
• 0.291, 0.683 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. Adrian Houser.
• 0.290, 0.672 — William Contreras batting vs. Adrian Houser.
• 0.288, 0.681 — Amed Rosario batting vs. Slade Cecconi.
• 0.285, 0.671 — Christian Yelich batting vs. Adrian Houser.
• 0.285, 0.667 — Andrew Vaughn batting vs. Adrian Houser.
• 0.283, 0.666 — Paul Goldschmidt batting vs. Slade Cecconi.
• 0.283, 0.669 — Ceddanne Rafaela batting vs. Trevor Rogers.
• 0.279, 0.707 — Luis Arraez batting at Coleman Crow.
• 0.278, 0.659 — Cody Bellinger batting vs. Slade Cecconi.

With nine games on the schedule, Rice moves to the top of this list. Cecconi allows the ball to be put in play, resulting in 72 hits allowed in 61 2/3 innings. Rice only puts the ball in play about 2/3 of the time, but own a .333 BABIP.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.279, 0.707 — Luis Arraez batting at Coleman Crow.
• 0.277, 0.699 — Brandon Marsh batting vs. Lucas Giolito.
• 0.277, 0.690 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Andrew Morris.
• 0.291, 0.683 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. Adrian Houser.
• 0.268, 0.681 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at Coleman Crow.
• 0.288, 0.681 — Amed Rosario batting vs. Slade Cecconi.
• 0.241, 0.676 — Ernie Clement batting at Chris Sale.
• 0.271, 0.676 — Yordan Alvarez batting vs. Jared Jones.
• 0.265, 0.676 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Jared Jones.
• 0.290, 0.672 — William Contreras batting vs. Adrian Houser.
• 0.265, 0.672 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Mason Fluharty.

The two systems do not agree much today, but Chourio emerges as the consensus top pick. Probabilities are very low today, however. Arraez is almost always a good choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz of the Rays rank third and fifth respectively. Both singled in four trips to the plate in a 7-2 Tigers win.

The best game score of the day came off the bat of Sam Antonacci of the White Sox. The rookie leadoff hitter went four for four with a walk and two doubles in an 8-0 win over the Twins. That raised his slash line to .291/.383/.391 on the season, giving the White Sox a nice spark at the top of the order.

Update: Bryce Turang singles with one out in the seventh to break up the no-hitter.

The Phillies lead the Padres 3-1 in the eighth inning.

No score as the Phillies bat in the bottom of the first inning.

The best pitching matchup of the day takes place in Houston as Paul Skenes leads the Pirates against Spencer Arrighetti and the Astros. Skenes allowed some runs lately, but overall he walked 12 and struck out 75 in 65 1/3 innings. Arrighetti received a decision in all eight of his starts, 7-1 with a 1.34 ERA. His control is the opposite of Skenes, walking 26 and striking out 43 in 47 innings. He only allowed 27 hits, however, so those walks don’t get to move far around the bases. The only ERA better than his at the 47 inning level belongs to Shohei Ohtani, who starts tonight for the Dodgers. Note that both are extremely good at limiting home runs.

Enjoy!

Adell reached up to catch TJ Rumfield’s deep fly for the Colorado Rockies in the fourth inning, but the ball grazed the outside of his glove before bouncing off his head and over the wall for a solo homer.

“I was toward the line and I felt like I had a little bit longer way to go than I normally do on a route like that and just missed it,” Adell told MLB.com. “It hit off my hat. I don’t know if I overran it and took a step over. But it was kind of the icing on the cake because I was (bad) all the way around the whole day today.”

ChronicleOnline.com

Adell actually is a pretty poor fielder, with negative defense feeding into his fWAR most years, so he also has that in common with Jose Canseco.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.317, 0.710 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Patrick Corbin.
• 0.309, 0.654 — Oswald Peraza batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.308, 0.704 — Dominic Smith batting vs. Patrick Corbin.
• 0.306, 0.714 — Brandon Marsh batting vs. Walker Buehler.
• 0.301, 0.655 — Wade Meckler batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.298, 0.651 — Donnie Walton batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.297, 0.689 — Andy Pages batting at Zac Gallen.
• 0.290, 0.674 — Ceddanne Rafaela batting vs. Chris Bassitt.
• 0.290, 0.643 — Omar Martinez batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.290, 0.641 — Jo Adell batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.

Batters hit Lorenzen hard this season, .353/.405/.556 overall, .299/.348/.496 on the road. That’s why so many Angels made it into the top ten today.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.306, 0.714 — Brandon Marsh batting vs. Walker Buehler.
• 0.317, 0.710 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Patrick Corbin.
• 0.280, 0.707 — Luis Arraez batting at Coleman Crow.
• 0.308, 0.704 — Dominic Smith batting vs. Patrick Corbin.
• 0.286, 0.698 — Otto Lopez batting at Andrew Alvarez.
• 0.276, 0.695 — Miguel Andujar batting at Cristopher Sanchez.
• 0.275, 0.695 — Ernie Clement batting at Grant Holmes.
• 0.287, 0.691 — Josh Jung batting at Andre Pallante.
• 0.297, 0.689 — Andy Pages batting at Zac Gallen.
• 0.269, 0.684 — Xavier Edwards batting at Andrew Alvarez.

This is a very different list, as Lorenzen isn’t enough to elevate the Angels hitters, as the NN weighs the batter talent more heavily. Marsh and Harris are near to the top of both lists. Harris comes in as the consensus top pick, while Marsh rates as the consensus double down choice. It’s not a high probability day.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Two Rays remain in the top five despite a team slump that saw them lose seven of their last nine games. Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz rank two and three respectively. Caminero singled in four trips and Diaz drew a walk in an 8-0 Tigers win.

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers rounds out the top five in fourth place. He doubled, tripled, and walked in a 6-5 win over the Diamondbacks. He now owns 47 career triples in his career. Since 2018, only Corbin Carroll of the Diamondbacks hit more, and did it in about half the number of game as Ohtani.

Carson Benge of the Mets went on an offensive binge Tuesday night, posting a game score of 77, the highest on the day. Benge hit two home runs and drew a walk in an 8-3 Mariners win, Seattle extending their winning streak to eight games. Benge, in his rookie year, is putting up decent numbers so far, .254/.320/.385. As a leadoff hitter, one would like to see the OBP higher, but at seasonal age 23 he has time to improve.

the Tigers offense appears to be coming to life.

Kevin Guasman takes on Bryce Elder as the Blue Jays battle the Braves. Since joining the Blue Jays in 2022, Guasman accumulated the third most innings in the major leagues. Part of that comes from avoiding injuries, but I also suspect the lack of walks allows him to pitcher deeper into games. Elder brought his OBP way down this season. It now stands at .275 versus .320 for his career. His walks are down a bit, but a .254 BABIP indicates many fewer hits allowed.

Enjoy!

Fine.

I just want to note that the MLBPA is not that anti salary cap, just when it applies directly to MLB players. Last decade, they were more that happy to cap bonuses for drafted players and money spent on foreign amateurs, because they thought that would make more money available to them. So the MLBPA is capable of being just as selfish as the owners.

It’s Lou Gehrig Day, as MLB supports ALS research. Gehrig for his career owned a high batting average and a high OBP, didn’t strike out much by today’s standards, and collected a hit in nearly 75% of the games he played. I was eyeballing the early years of his career, looking for a long streak, but what I kept seeing were short streaks like this one in which he just pounded the ball for eight or nine games in a row.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.335, 0.728 — Otto Lopez batting at Miles Mikolas.
• 0.320, 0.720 — Xavier Edwards batting at Miles Mikolas.
• 0.308, 0.702 — Nick Gonzales batting at Mike Burrows.
• 0.305, 0.710 — Miguel Andujar batting at Aaron Nola.
• 0.298, 0.697 — Josh Jung batting at Dustin May.
• 0.297, 0.702 — Brandon Marsh batting vs. Randy Vasquez.
• 0.289, 0.677 — Ryan O’Hearn batting at Mike Burrows.
• 0.283, 0.682 — Jake Mangum batting at Mike Burrows.
• 0.283, 0.674 — Ezequiel Duran batting at Dustin May.
• 0.283, 0.663 — Ty France batting at Aaron Nola.

Lopez and Edwards turned into a very good hit generating pair for the Marlins. Neither strikes out much, and both have been hot lately.

The NN produces this list of batters with high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.335, 0.728 — Otto Lopez batting at Miles Mikolas.
• 0.320, 0.720 — Xavier Edwards batting at Miles Mikolas.
• 0.305, 0.710 — Miguel Andujar batting at Aaron Nola.
• 0.308, 0.702 — Nick Gonzales batting at Mike Burrows.
• 0.297, 0.702 — Brandon Marsh batting vs. Randy Vasquez.
• 0.268, 0.701 — Luis Arraez batting at Kyle Harrison.
• 0.298, 0.697 — Josh Jung batting at Dustin May.
• 0.273, 0.696 — Ernie Clement batting at Bryce Elder.
• 0.279, 0.694 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Jack Flaherty.
• 0.278, 0.692 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Andrew Abbott.

The two systems agree on the 1-2 today, and pretty much on the top four. Edwards might be a slightly better choice. Mikolas posts low strikeout and walk rates, so plenty of balls get put in play against him. Plenty of those get turned into outs, however, as opponents own a .276 BABIP against him, consistent with his career. Mikolas’s high ERA comes from allowing eleven home runs in 50 1/3 innings, and Edwards is more likely to take advantage of that weakness.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

In that same game, Dillon Dingler of the Tigers posted the highest game score of the day, an 88. He went four for five with a double and two home runs, driving in four runs. The catcher and number two hitter is now slugging .503, with 25 of his 47 hits going for extra bases.

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers moved into fourth place with a three for four, including a double, in a 4-1 Diamondbacks win. Ohtani now owns a .407 OBP and a .502 slugging percentage for the season. That’s quite a good down year.

Bryan Reynolds and Spencer Horwitz of the Pirates rank second and fifth respectively, the Pirates not playing on Monday.

Walks coming down in my mind indicates an expanding strike zone. If the zone is bigger more pitches will go as strikes and fewer as balls. That can happen either by how the umpires call the pitches, or by batters seeing the strike zone as bigger and chasing more pitches at the edges.

The competing view would be that pitchers are simply throwing more pitches in the strike zone. If pitchers were putting more pitches in the zone, I would think that strikeouts might be going up.

I suspect that the automated ball strike system (ABS), forced everyone involved, batters, pitchers, and umpires to really learn the strike zone. Low pitches that catchers used to be able to pull into the zone are now strikes. Batters who might have gotten the benefit of the doubt on taking outside pitches or high pitches, might have learned those were strikes. So my guess is that both pitchers and batters are doing a better job of recognizing the edge. Pitchers brought more pitches on to the edge to try to get the backward K, while batters recognize that’s a pitch they need to hit, and are making enough contact to keep strikeouts even.

I would love to hear other opinions on this.

The Rangers send Jacob deGrom against the Cardinals and Michael McGreevy. After a great start to the season, deGrom posted a 5.72 ERA in May, three poor starts driving up his ERA. He allowed nine home runs in 28 1/3 innings. McGreevy allowed just 51 hits in 60 1/3 innings. His defense helped, as he allowed a .249 BABIP.

Enjoy!

The top home run hitters in the month as a group produced rather poor OBPs. Kyle Schwarber, with 11 homers, owned a .243/.304/.592 slash line. Cody Bellinger, tied for second in doubles on the month, seems to be at the intersection of both list with a .304/.415/.578 slash line. He walked more than he struck out in the month.

In the end, Nick Kurtz did the best job of getting on base and hitting for power. He drove in runs and scored runs. He even went three for three in stealing bases. Nick Kurtz is the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month for May 2026.

Pitcher of the month is somewhat easier as two hurlers posted incredible months. Cristopher Sanchez of the Phillies did not allow a run, and Jacob Misiorowski of the Brewers only allowed one run. Note that the innings pitched were close, Sanchez leading 39 IP to 38 1/3 IP for Misiorowski, but Sanchez posted his in one fewer start! Misiorowski only wins the K per nine IP category, but that’s not enough to top Sanchez’s nearly perfect May. Cristopher Sanchez wins the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month for May 2026.

Last week produced 9.60 runs per game, the second highest scoring week of the season. The good news when you look at walks is that they have been dropping week by week, down to 6.2 per game last week. Strikeouts dropped as well, leading to more BABIP hits and home runs. Homers came in at 2.6 per game, while BABIP hits rose to 14.5 per game. I’d like to see those trends continue.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.307, 0.709 — Otto Lopez batting at Cade Cavalli.
• 0.302, 0.653 — Oswald Peraza batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.299, 0.707 — Xavier Edwards batting at Cade Cavalli.
• 0.296, 0.654 — Donnie Walton batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.295, 0.654 — Wade Meckler batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.292, 0.649 — Jo Adell batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.291, 0.656 — Adam Frazier batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.289, 0.648 — Nick Madrigal batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.282, 0.692 — Josh Jung batting at Michael McGreevy.
• 0.281, 0.644 — Zach Neto batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
• 0.281, 0.635 — Vaughn Grissom batting vs. Kyle Freeland.

This looks like a great day for the Angels as they face Freeland of the Rockies. Freeland actually allows a higher hit average on the road this season.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.307, 0.709 — Otto Lopez batting at Cade Cavalli.
• 0.299, 0.707 — Xavier Edwards batting at Cade Cavalli.
• 0.275, 0.703 — Luis Arraez batting at Shane Drohan.
• 0.282, 0.692 — Josh Jung batting at Michael McGreevy.
• 0.274, 0.684 — Ildemaro Vargas batting vs. Emmet Sheehan.
• 0.261, 0.681 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Ty Madden.
• 0.258, 0.680 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Ty Madden.
• 0.269, 0.680 — Andy Pages batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
• 0.279, 0.674 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting vs. Sandy Alcantara.
• 0.261, 0.672 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at Shane Drohan.

The Marlins pair of Lopez and Edwards turn out to be the consensus double down picks, as the NN weights the opposing pitcher much less than the Log5 Method. Cavalli owns both high strikeout and walk rates, but opponents produce a high BABIP against him. That stands at .350 for his career and .361 this season. Lopez is great at putting the ball in play, and both Lopez and Edwards own high BABIPs.

You could also go with an all Jung double down.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero, and Jonathan Aranda rank two, three, and four respectively, the meat of the sandwich. Diaz drew a walk and drove in a run in the 5-2 win over the Angels. Caminero reached base four times with two walks and two singles, raising his OBP to .377. Aranda, joining the top five for the first time, homered and walked. He ended May with a .374/.464/.560 slash line, reaching base 52 times by a hit, walk, or hit by pitch in 24 games.

The best game score of the day went to Bryce Eldridge of the Giants, a 78. He posted a four for six with two doubles and a home run in a 19-6 rout of the Rockies. In fact, the Giants produced four of the top five game scores on the day.