Contreras’ teammate Sal Frelick posted the highest game score, a 64. He went two for four with a home run, his solo shot tying the game at four. Frelick regressed a great deal in 2026. He played this season as a 26-year-old one of the prime prime-years. This was his fourth season in the majors, and he increased his WAR each season up to this point. His power was down, but also his ability to get hits on balls in play, as his BABIP fell to .246 versus .293 for his career. It’s another example of an injury slump, as he tried to play through as shoulder strain. Note that after retuning form his illjured list stint, he continued to hit poorly.

Frelick’s homer is one reason I find baseball more enjoyable that other sports. Anyone can be the hero.

Once again, the Brewers bullpen was lights out. They pitched six scoreless innings, allowing four hits and one walk while striking out seven. The team just never seems to be out of the game.

The Rays did make a number of defensive mistakes as they so far failed to live up to their regular season defensive prowess.

The series heads to the Tampa Bay area for games Monday and Tuesday, and maybe Wednesday.

Update: Cooper Pratt delivers an RBI single to right, and the Brewers come all the way back from a 4-0 deficit to a 5-4 lead.

Update: Booser gets Christian Yelich to ground out to end the inning.

Update: With two out, Garrett Mitchell singles to cut the Rays lead to 4-2. Milwaukee pushed Rasmussen’s pitch count up, now 27.

Update: Rasmussen gets a K to end the inning, and the Rays come out of the first inning with a two run lead over the Brewers.

Batting down in the order, his ability to collect hits helps his team score. The Rays lead 1-0 as they continue to bat in the top of the first in game two of the World Series.

Update: Junior Caminero singles down the leftfield line to drive in Simpson, and the Rays are the team to get out to a 2-0 today. They have pushed Logan Henderson’s pitch count up to 24.

Update: Liam Hick follows with a home run, the first of the series, and the Rays lead 4-0.

Rasmussen gave the Rays high quality length so far in the 2026 post-season. In three starts he pitched 21 innings, seven on average. In those innings he struck out 23 batters and walked just three, Two of the three runs he allowed came on solo home runs. The Rays conserved their best relievers in game one, so if Rasmussen does get in trouble early, the teams is prepared to cover him.

Henderson posted a high strikeout rate and a low walk rate in his short regular season career, but that has not shown up in the playoffs. He pitched just nine innings in two starts, striking out six and walking five. Those rates should get him in trouble with the Rays offense. He pitches extremely well at home in his career, 8-0 in ten starts with a 1.64 ERA. He did give up eight home runs in those 55 innings, all solo shots.

The team that hits the most solo home runs tonight should win.

Enjoy!

“I’m always trying to make something happen,” Mesa said. “Obviously, it’s easy to say now, but it was not the best move. I understand that it was not the smartest move, so I’ll learn from that.”

Rays manager Kevin Cash said Mesa was “trying … to put a little pressure on the defense, and it didn’t work in our favor.”

MLB.com

If Mesa is safe, it doesn’t make that much difference. He might score on a ball that gets by the catcher, but William Contreras was blocking everything last night. The better scenario would be that Contreras throws the ball into leftfield, and the Rays tie the game.

Mesa may have thought he had the element of surprise in his favor, since trying to steal third with two out is frowned upon in general. The Brewers seemed less than surprised by the move. It’s one of those plays that if it works, there is some criticism, but mostly Mesa would be feted for tying the game. When it doesn’t work and the team loses by one run, it’s the biggest mistake of the contest.

William Contreras of the Brewers ranks seventh, the highest for any player in the World Series. He posted a two for three with a walk, driving in a run, throwing out two base stealers, getting his ABS challenges correct, and keeping the balls in the dirt in front of him. He was easily the MVP of the 3-2 Milwaukee win in game one. His game score of 62 ranked second for the game.

Jonathan Aranda of the Rays went three for three with a walk for a game score of 68, the highest in the game. That moved him up to 20th on the list.

Update: The call at second is overturned. The Rays score a run to cut the lead to 3-2. Tampa Bay has men on second and third with two out.

Update: Jonny DeLuca bats against Trevor Megill. DeLuca gets ahead 2-1. He swings and misses at a 2-2 pitch, and Milwaukee wins 3-2!

Update: Christian Yelich grounds out to end the inning, but Milwaukee gets the insurance run.

Update: Chandler Simpson reaches out and touches a two strike pitch for dink single past the third baseman. Junior Caminero lines into a double play, however, to end the inning. No strikeouts for Misiorowski, however, so we’ll see if the Rays can keep putting the ball in play.

Update: Jackson Chourio singles on the first pitch from Nick Martinez of the Rays and singles to right. Everyone is getting the bat on the ball.

Update: With one out, Christian Yelich hits a rocket to right of center. DeLuca dives for it but it goes off his glove for an RBI triple. With the infield in, William Contreras hits a line drive that goes of the glove of the shortstop, and the Brewers lead 2-0.

Update: Brice Turang strikes out for the second out of the inning. He’s the first batter in the game not to put the ball in play.

Update: Garrett Mitchell Ks to end the inning. That was quite the exciting first!

The Brewers are taking on some injury risk here:

A club may request permission from the commissioner to replace a player on the active roster for the remainder of a series if he sustains an “acute, non-chronic injury or ailment (not recurring soreness over time).” That means the Brewers couldn’t have somebody fill Woodruff’s spot if they include him on the roster and he has a recurrence of the shoulder issue.

Chron.com

The Brewers did not need to use all their pitchers in the first two series, so this might just be a way to get a team veteran a chance to play in the World Series.

Martinez on the mound strikes me as a mild surprise. He would be next in the rotation, but ace Drew Rasmussen could pitch today on four days rest. This article points to Martinez pitching better on the road. Opponents hit .267/.292/.450 with Martinez home, .232/.265/.353 away. If the road split really mattered, the right thing to do would be to start Martinez in games two and six.

The use of Martinez strikes me as stacking. The idea is that Misiorowski is so good that the chance of your ace beating him are low. So you “sacrifice” a game to get superior pitching matchups in the other games. There is a huge upside here, since the probability of the Rays winning with Martinez on the mound would be much higher than in one-on-one games like team tennis, where you’re more likely to see stacking employed

Overall, Martinez held opponents to a .278 OBP (13th lowest in the majors), which goes directly against the Brewers’ offense, whose .341 OBP led the majors. Martinez does give up extra-base hits. While the Brewers are not a home run hitting team, they do collect a high number of doubles and triples, and that tends to be what Martinez allows.

Notice that Misiorowski tops the OBP list. Opponents hit .157/.224/.246 against him. He limits everything, which is why stacking makes sense. He is the only pitcher this season to face at least 502 batters and give up less than 100 hits. He struck out 252 batters.

Both the Padres and the Dodgers both used Misiorowski’s dependence on strikeouts against him. By intentionally trying to put the bat on the ball rather than swing for the fences, they fouled off lots of pitches, and even wound up with some hits. That ran up his pitch count, and he lasted less than five innings in both games. The overall strategy did not work, however, as the Brewers bullpen did not allow a run in either game, and Milwaukee took home the victories.

This strategy should work for the Rays offense as well, as they begin as a low strikeout team. We did see in the Cleveland series, however, that a high K pitcher can have success against the Rays lineup.

The chess game begins! Enjoy.

Smith is the youngest person in his role for a major league team, surpassing 36-year-old Paul Toboni in Washington.

“You look at so many technology companies and so many companies that have been created, and they’re all being created by kids,” Fisher said Wednesday. “There is something that is very empowering about somebody coming in who is young, energized. I thought that he described it really well. He wants to make sure he knows what he doesn’t know that he doesn’t know.

“The fact that he hasn’t done all of these things before, that gives us a lot of confidence that he’s going to be trying new things. Some of them won’t work, a lot of them will, and he’s going to learn and continue to get better.”

ESPN.com

Theo Epstein was 30 in 2004 when he led the Red Sox to a World Championship, so it’s been done before. I also suspect someone that age came with a lower price tag. Smith comes from the research side of the house, so the Athletics will continue their tradition of research and analytics that started under Sandy Alderson.

In its statement, the team said Benzinger “will be remembered with great affection and gratitude for his place in one of the most memorable chapters in Reds history.” It noted his regular participation in multiple functions such as the Reds Caravan, Reds Fantasy Camp, Reds Legends Remember program and Redsfest.

“Todd will forever be remembered by Reds fans for catching the final out of the 1990 World Series, but those of us who had the privilege of knowing him will remember so much more,” said Rick Walls, executive director of the Reds Hall of Fame Museum. “Todd remained close to the Cincinnati community and was a tremendous friend to the Reds Hall of Fame and Museum, generously participating in our events and sharing his time with fans. We will miss his friendship, his kindness and his presence in our community.”

ESPN.com

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Benzinger may have posted one of the longest careers for a player who consistently posted negative WARs. His best season came in his rookie year of 1987 when he posted a 1.2 rWAR for the Red Sox. He hit .278/.344/.444 that season. I suspect that clubs who signed him kept hoping for a return to that level.

I have to say that I felt like a good luck charm for him. Every once in a while he would come up, and I would start complaining about his poor hitting or lack of power. As soon as I did that he would hit a home run. It happened at least twice.

Suzuki said the team’s decision to decline his option wasn’t a surprise.

“Obviously with new ownership coming in, they’re going to have their touches on things and obviously the manager is a big position,” Suzuki said according to the Register. “I’ve been in this game a long time. I haven’t been through an ownership change, but I know when leadership changes, they bring in their people that they want. I know it’s part of the gig. It is what it is.”

Mozeliak, who became interim GM after Perry Minasian was fired in June, said the Angels’ new GM would be responsible for hiring the new manager.

ESPN.com

I hope Suzuki gets another chance with a better team. I’m not sure one season is enough to judge a manager, especially working for a dysfunctional organization like the Angels.

An argument seemed to develop on-line about how these two teams use analytics. There is a throwback nature to these two clubs (due to the lack of home runs), which causes some people to feel the teams are simply playing old school baseball. I believe they are innovative.

First off, probably the best thing I wrote this year, from the NL Central Preview:

I stopped underestimating the Brewers. Like the Rays in the AL this team often offers more than meets the eye.

BaseballMusings.com

Now the offenses, with ranks in their league, AL for the Rays, NL for the Brewers:

The Brewers own a huge lead over the Rays in runs per game, 0.6 runs per game. Analysts pointed out, however, that the Brewers greatly exceeded their predicted runs per game based on their component stats. Using Tom Tango’s xwOBA or Bill James Runs Created, the Brewers should have scored 4.79 runs per game. Even the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) puts their composite 1-9 at 4.70 runs per game, with their best possible lineup at 4.80 runs per game.

What caused the big difference? The easy answer is situational. The link above for the composite order shows all splits for the Brewers batters, and they hit much better with men on base than with the bases empty, killed in bases loaded situations (but just one grand slam), and did their absolute best with less than two out and a man on third. I believe the LAT gives a clue as to why this happened, rather than it being pure luck.

The best lineups the LAT finds for the Brewers put the 1-2-3 grouping in the middle of the order, and the 4-5-6 grouping at the top of the order. The 4-5-6 grouping as a whole are better hitters, getting on base more and hitting for more power. The LAT wants the best players near the top. I would normally criticize a team for this type of construction, but what if the Brewers found a flaw in the plan? What if the order should be three guys at the top who are decent at getting on base, then three guys behind them who are good at extending an inning. Maybe they are set up intentionally to do well with men on base!

While you ponder that, Bill James once wrote a blurb about the Royals strategy involving Bill Buckner. I’m doing this from memory, but there was a pinch hitter on deck with men on base and one out. The batter made the second out, leaving the runners on base. The manager recalled the PH and sent up Bill Buckner instead. James thought that this was a brilliant move. With two out, the Royals were at the end of the offensive sequence. Buckner did not walk much, but collected a ton of hits. What a team needs in this situation is someone more likely to get a hit and drive in runs, and Buckner was perfect for that job. The manager should want a batter with a high hit average (Hits/PA) in that situation. The walk doesn’t help all that much.

Where does that situation come up the most? Probably in the five and six hole. Who is a low walk, high hit guy who batted mostly five and six this season? Chandler Simpson of the Rays!

For decades, managers would look at a high batting average player with great speed, good base stealing instincts, but a relatively low OBP and think “Leadoff Man.” The Rays looked at Simpson and thought, “End of the Sequence Hitter!” He’s similar to Luis Arraez, who the Phillies batted fourth, behind the batters who got on base.

Now look at the Brewers composite lineup. The number six hitter is a high BA, high OBP batter, but gets that OBP mostly through hits. I don’t know if a particular team came up with this idea and it was copied, or if the Brewers and Rays came up with the idea independently, but it sure worked well. The Brewers turned lineup construction on its head, putting high OBP players further down to extend innings, with a perfect end of offense hitter behind them. Simpson excelled in the role as well,

The two teams are even in batting average and slugging percentage, but the Brewers own a big lead in OBP. The most interesting thing about the BA to me is that Milwaukee posted a .316 BABIP to Tampa Bay’s .296. The Brewers struck out a lot more than the Rays, so their high BABIP made up for all the balls they didn’t put in play.

The following chart holds the comparison of pitching and defense.

The Brewers once again own a sizable advantage in runs, this time in preventing them. Note how some of the strengths and weaknesses of the pitching staffs work with the strengths and weaknesses of the opposing hitters. The Rays pitchers do a relatively poor job of striking out batters. This should help a high BABIP team like Milwaukee. However, Tampa Bay’s defensive efficiency shows they are great at stopping balls in play, so everything might balance there. The Rays excel at limiting walks. Remember, the two teams are pretty even in hits and power. If the Rays can eliminate Brewers batter walks, then the two teams are on a more even footing.

So it may come down to home runs, and neither team hits a high number of home runs. Even though the Rays hit more than the Brewers during the regular season, Milwaukee pitchers ability to prevent long balls might give the edge to Milwaukee there.

And so the Brewers have plenty of advantages, and looking at the numbers they should dominate the series. The current odds I see give the Brewers a 59% chance of winning the series, and that might be conservative. I’ll be even more conservative, but give the Brewers a 55% chance of winning the series. That depends on the Rays being able to limit walks and keep Milwaukee from extending innings.

The long odds early in the year for both teams meant that liability built up quickly for sportsbooks as bettors piled on. At those big plus-money numbers, it doesn’t take as many bets for liability to accumulate as it would for a favorite like the Los Angeles Dodgers, who were in the +200 range all season before being eliminated by Milwaukee in the National League Championship Series.

Caesars Sportsbook told ESPN before the postseason that the Brewers had become a liability due to some late-season action backing them as a more contrarian World Series pick. That’s still the case, but Milwaukee also assisted sportsbooks through its wins in the playoffs.

ESPN.com

Oh boo-hoo. They set the odds wrong and didn’t adjust fast enough. I guess sometimes the vig isn’t enough. I’m sure a Sunday afternoon of prop betting on football will cover things pretty quickly.

I thought I might demonstrate this difference by looking at frequency of plate appearances in innings for the two teams in 2026. Here is the data:

What I’m showing here is what I like to call effective OBP. In a five PA inning, four batters might have reached base, but two were removed from the bases, as if they were not there. So the measure OBP for the inning might be .800, but here we see it as .400. Over the course of the season, it won’t make that much difference.

Also, the more batters in an inning, the higher the probability of scoring runs. If four batters come to the plate and there is a run scored, it’s mostly likely a homer, or good base running combined with poor fielding. If five men bat, an extra-base was probably involved in any scoring. Some combination of singles and walks can score a run if six come to the plate. At seven men batting and above, you are guaranteed a run for every batter over six.

Back to the data. The Brewers, with the higher OBP, produced 57 fewer low PA innings (3 or 4 batters), the innings most likely to lead to no runs scored. At the other end they produced 24 more innings with at least one guaranteed run. The Brewers do a better job than the Rays through their OBP of creating scoring opportunities. That’s why OBP is important, and why teams with high OBPs can score a lot of runs even if they don’t have a lot of power,

That said, I hope the Mets sign him so they could have a Soto and Sato slugging summer.

“It’s unbelievable. I think I have to see [the ALCS MVP trophy] when I go home tonight and start thinking about it, because I still am in shock because I don’t believe it’s here,” Peralta said. “Even in the moment, it surprised me, because I thought it was going to be somebody else because there’s a lot of talent, a lot of players that did a great job. And I think it could be anybody.”

MLB.com

Peralta now faces the team that traded him away in January, although he went to the Mets. It looked like the Brewers made the right decision until Peralta landed with the Rays. The Mets need to do a review of why they could not get a decent performance from Peralta. In eight seasons with Milwaukee he went 80-53 with a 3.59 ERA. Now he’s looking to end Tampa Bay’s World Series drought and continue Milwaukee’s.