Schlittler got off to a better start than Misiorowski, but the Brewers star made up for it this season. Note that Skenes, coming up a month earlier in his rookie year, had more time to rise that the two rivals. The Pirates star started to level off in mid 2025, and continued that leveling this season. MJ and CS are almost even with him now.

It would be great if the three of these youngsters became the competitive group of their generation. As we are seeing with Skenes already, it’s tough to maintain greatness on the mound for an extended period of time.

Shane McClanahan of the Rays and Brandon Young of the Orioles both vie for their tenth win as the teams meet in Baltimore. McClanahan won at least ten games in his three previous MLB seasons, but this would be the first time since 2023 due to injury. Young pitched about twice as many innings as last season, cutting his ERA nearly three runs. Batters are hitting for less power, with his opposition slugging percentage dropping from .522 to .406.

Enjoy!

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.327, 0.717 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at Patrick Sandoval.
• 0.308, 0.729 — Chandler Simpson batting at Brandon Young.
• 0.296, 0.697 — Alec Burleson batting at Andrew Painter.
• 0.291, 0.704 — Yandy Diaz batting at Brandon Young.
• 0.288, 0.677 — Jordan Walker batting at Andrew Painter.
• 0.286, 0.719 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Quinn Mathews.
• 0.285, 0.691 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Rhett Lowder.
• 0.281, 0.652 — Victor Bericoto batting at Patrick Sandoval.
• 0.277, 0.691 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Jake Irvin.
• 0.273, 0.643 — Rafael Devers batting at Patrick Sandoval.

Lee fits the mold of a batter who builds his OBP heavily on hits. He neither walks nor strikes out much, and owns a decent BABIP. Sandoval threw just 34 innings this season, and allows a .419 BABIP so far. That value was .341 last year.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.308, 0.729, 0.754 — Chandler Simpson batting at Brandon Young.
• 0.286, 0.719, 0.734 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Quinn Mathews.
• 0.327, 0.717, 0.723 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at Patrick Sandoval.
• 0.291, 0.704, 0.714 — Yandy Diaz batting at Brandon Young.
• 0.296, 0.697, 0.703 — Alec Burleson batting at Andrew Painter.
• 0.277, 0.691, 0.673 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Jake Irvin.
• 0.285, 0.691, 0.687 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Rhett Lowder.
• 0.272, 0.685, 0.673 — Ernie Clement batting at Ryan Weathers.
• 0.260, 0.683, 0.697 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Drew Anderson.
• 0.249, 0.679, 0.675 — Jake Mangum batting at Tarik Skubal.
• 0.253, 0.679, 0.652 — Nick Gonzales batting at Tarik Skubal.

Simpson owns a twelve-game hit streak, third longest in the majors right now. He walked once and struck out three times during the streak, so he is putting the ball in play. Moreno has the longest, and he managed that putting the ball in play less, with four walks and ten Ks.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

• 0.308, 0.729, 0.754 — Chandler Simpson batting at Brandon Young.
• 0.286, 0.719, 0.734 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Quinn Mathews.
• 0.327, 0.717, 0.723 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at Patrick Sandoval.
• 0.291, 0.704, 0.714 — Yandy Diaz batting at Brandon Young.
• 0.296, 0.697, 0.703 — Alec Burleson batting at Andrew Painter.
• 0.260, 0.683, 0.697 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Drew Anderson.
• 0.285, 0.691, 0.687 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Rhett Lowder.
• 0.272, 0.676, 0.678 — Bo Bichette batting at Luis Castillo.
• 0.269, 0.674, 0.677 — Jonathan Aranda batting at Brandon Young.
• 0.249, 0.679, 0.675 — Jake Mangum batting at Tarik Skubal.

The NN and LR matchup on the top five today. Simpson stands as the consensus top pick, with Lee the consensus double down choice. Note, however, that Lee owns a large platoon split and doesn’t hit lefties well. Arraez would be next, but that is also a left on left matchup.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros held third place with a two for three with two doubles in a 4-0 win over the Athletics, his slash line now at .321/.434/.618. Alec Burleson of the Cardinals ranks fifth after not starting in the 7-6 Phillies win.

Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs homered and walked in a 6-5, ten innings Mariners win and ranks fourth. His teammate, Alex Bregman, posted the highest game score of the day, a 76. Bregman went three for five with two home runs. He collected 35 hits in his last 24 games, seventeen of them for extra bases. His .357/.417/.694 slash line in that time propelled him to sixth in the rankings.

The Giants visit Fenway Park as Logan Webb takes on Sonny Gray. Since the start of his career in 2019, Webb owns the lowest home run rate in the majors, 0.62 per 9 IP (minimum 900 innings). Gray ranks fifth on the list at 0.92 per 9 IP. Their ERAs are almost identical, 3.39 for Webb, 3.41 for Gray.

Enjoy!

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.329, 0.714, 0.734 — Chase DeLauter batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.306, 0.690, 0.720 — Steven Kwan batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.306, 0.681, 0.676 — Angel Genao batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.305, 0.677, 0.667 — Nathaniel Lowe batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.296, 0.667, 0.656 — Angel Martinez batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.294, 0.718, 0.732 — Chandler Simpson batting at Trevor Rogers.
• 0.294, 0.663, 0.647 — Brayan Rocchio batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.291, 0.674, 0.708 — Jose Ramirez batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.288, 0.657, 0.645 — Jo Adell batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.285, 0.718, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Hunter Dobbins.

The Guardians look forward to a big night at Coors Field. Gordon may be the perfect beat the streak pitcher. He strikes out and walks few batters, gives up a ton of home runs, and the opposition, for his career, produced a .344 BABIP. DeLauter may be underestimated here as his three season parameters are still be regressed to the mean hit average of .216.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.285, 0.718, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Hunter Dobbins.
• 0.294, 0.718, 0.732 — Chandler Simpson batting at Trevor Rogers.
• 0.329, 0.714, 0.734 — Chase DeLauter batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.279, 0.695, 0.693 — Yandy Diaz batting at Trevor Rogers.
• 0.306, 0.690, 0.720 — Steven Kwan batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.277, 0.690, 0.680 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at Sonny Gray.
• 0.269, 0.685, 0.698 — Jacob Wilson batting at Hayden Wesneski.
• 0.306, 0.681, 0.676 — Angel Genao batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.260, 0.680, 0.652 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Bradley Lord.
• 0.270, 0.678, 0.664 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Nick Lodolo.

The NN discounts pitchers a lot more than Log5, but plenty of Guardians make the list. Arraez and Simpson, both working on hit streaks, top the list.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

• 0.285, 0.718, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Hunter Dobbins.
• 0.329, 0.714, 0.734 — Chase DeLauter batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.294, 0.718, 0.732 — Chandler Simpson batting at Trevor Rogers.
• 0.306, 0.690, 0.720 — Steven Kwan batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.291, 0.674, 0.708 — Jose Ramirez batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.269, 0.685, 0.698 — Jacob Wilson batting at Hayden Wesneski.
• 0.279, 0.695, 0.693 — Yandy Diaz batting at Trevor Rogers.
• 0.277, 0.690, 0.680 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at Sonny Gray.
• 0.306, 0.681, 0.676 — Angel Genao batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.305, 0.677, 0.667 — Nathaniel Lowe batting at Tanner Gordon.

The LR tends to discount pitchers and ballparks more than the NN, but Gordon and Coors represent extremes that seem to push the LR to favor players in those conditions. Arraez still tops the list, but DeLauter beats Simpson here. DeLauter, on the Borda count, ranks as the consensus top pick, with Kwan and Simpson tied for the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

In that game, Zach Neto of LAnaheim posted the highest game score of the day, an 89. He went five for six with a double, a home run and seven RBI. Neto own an interesting profile as a shortstop. His batting average is low, but he draw enough walks that he’s not an out machine and his hits do generate some power. Here is his BA as a percentage of offense model:

OBP is the X axis, and slugging is on the Y axis. He is someone whose batting average you should ignore.

Alec Burleson of the Cardinals went one for four in a 10-9 win over the Reds to rank fourth. Pete Crow-Armstrong and the Cubs took the day off and he ranks fifth.

Starting on July 26th, he appeared to get his batting eye back. He drew 28 walks in his last 23 games to go with 23 hits. He struck out 18 times in 105 plate appearances, and collect nine extra base hits. All that adds up to a .299/.486/.532 slash line. That moved him up over 80 places, and helped the Phillies to a 14-9 record, a .609 winning percentage.

The evening sees the Yankees send Gerrit Cole against the Orioles and Kyle Bradish. Cole is returning to form as he posted a 1.46 ERA in his last four starts. He has not allowed a home run in that stretch. Bradish’s strength comes from limiting home runs, with a career rate of just 0.90 per nine innings, 0.88 this season.

Enjoy!

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.306, 0.725, 0.744 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Shane Bieber.
• 0.296, 0.689, 0.685 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. George Kirby.
• 0.291, 0.677, 0.646 — Andrew Vaughn batting vs. George Kirby.
• 0.289, 0.700, 0.702 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Shane Bieber.
• 0.288, 0.693, 0.700 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Grayson Rodriguez.
• 0.287, 0.688, 0.683 — Alec Burleson batting at Brady Singer.
• 0.286, 0.689, 0.685 — Yordan Alvarez batting vs. Grayson Rodriguez.
• 0.277, 0.664, 0.616 — Jordan Walker batting at Brady Singer.
• 0.272, 0.672, 0.673 — Yainer Diaz batting vs. Grayson Rodriguez.
• 0.271, 0.682, 0.655 — Michael Harris II batting at Anthony Kay.
• 0.271, 0.655, 0.641 — Brice Turang batting vs. George Kirby.

There are only nine games on the schedule today, six of them in the afternoon, so get your picks in early. Teammates Simpson and Yandy Diaz own ten game hit streaks.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.306, 0.725, 0.744 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Shane Bieber.
• 0.289, 0.700, 0.702 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Shane Bieber.
• 0.288, 0.693, 0.700 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Grayson Rodriguez.
• 0.296, 0.689, 0.685 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. George Kirby.
• 0.286, 0.689, 0.685 — Yordan Alvarez batting vs. Grayson Rodriguez.
• 0.287, 0.688, 0.683 — Alec Burleson batting at Brady Singer.
• 0.267, 0.685, 0.701 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Gage Jump.
• 0.271, 0.682, 0.655 — Michael Harris II batting at Anthony Kay.
• 0.259, 0.681, 0.697 — Jacob Wilson batting at Randy Dobnak.
• 0.291, 0.677, 0.646 — Andrew Vaughn batting vs. George Kirby.

The NN knocks down the Brewers batters a bit, putting the Rays pair of hot hitters at the top.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

• 0.306, 0.725, 0.744 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Shane Bieber.
• 0.289, 0.700, 0.702 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Shane Bieber.
• 0.267, 0.685, 0.701 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Gage Jump.
• 0.288, 0.693, 0.700 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Grayson Rodriguez.
• 0.259, 0.681, 0.697 — Jacob Wilson batting at Randy Dobnak.
• 0.286, 0.689, 0.685 — Yordan Alvarez batting vs. Grayson Rodriguez.
• 0.296, 0.689, 0.685 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. George Kirby.
• 0.287, 0.688, 0.683 — Alec Burleson batting at Brady Singer.
• 0.272, 0.672, 0.673 — Yainer Diaz batting vs. Grayson Rodriguez.
• 0.267, 0.669, 0.665 — Jonathan Aranda batting vs. Shane Bieber.

Simpson makes the top of all three lists, with Diaz the consensus double down choice. We’re in the period of the game where if you are trying start a streak now, you’ll need to double down quite a bit to have a 57 game streak by the end of the season. This might be the day to go with one batter, however, since the probabilities are low. Bieber, on the other hand, is a low K pitcher, so the ball does get put in play.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Triple crown candidate Yordan Alvarez of the Astros dropped to third place after a one for four in a 3-2 win over the Angels. He sits in a ten game slump that finally lowered his rank. With Chandler Simpson of the Rays going on a long hitting streak, Alvarez’s batting average lead shrunk to the point where we have a race in the AL.

Alec Burleson of the Cardinals ranks fourth. He singled and walked in a 5-4 Reds win. Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs rounds out the top five after an 0 for 4 in a 3-0 White Sox win. The top five are separated by just six points, with the rest of the pack six points back of PCA. Expect for day to day changes.

For the second day in a row, two batters tie for high game score of the day with a 75. Vinnie Pasquantino of the Royals went three for four with a walk and a homer in a 9-7 win over the Athletics. It was his seventh home run of the season as Pasquantino’s power crashed this season, his 2025 .475 slugging percentage dropping to .367. Andres Chaparro of the Nationals went three for four with a double and a home run in a 6-0 win over the Rangers. At seasonal age 27, the part-time player saw his power blossom this season as he slugs .543. He seldom sees a right-handed pitcher, but this season hit them well.

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.328, 0.725, 0.752 — Freddie Freeman batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.310, 0.703, 0.722 — Shohei Ohtani batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.310, 0.730, 0.754 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Max Scherzer.
• 0.310, 0.703, 0.722 — Miguel Rojas batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.308, 0.710, 0.701 — Otto Lopez batting at Aaron Nola.
• 0.306, 0.697, 0.715 — Andy Pages batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.298, 0.693, 0.684 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Chris Bassitt.
• 0.294, 0.706, 0.716 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Max Scherzer.
• 0.290, 0.668, 0.645 — Tommy Edman batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.289, 0.674, 0.683 — Teoscar Hernandez batting at Kyle Freeland.

Hitting against Freeland at Coors makes everyone a great batter. Freeman and Ohtani, who tend to top the Dodgers order, just have everything enhanced by this matchup.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.310, 0.730, 0.754 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Max Scherzer.
• 0.328, 0.725, 0.752 — Freddie Freeman batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.288, 0.718, 0.734 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Sandy Alcantara.
• 0.308, 0.710, 0.701 — Otto Lopez batting at Aaron Nola.
• 0.294, 0.706, 0.716 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Max Scherzer.
• 0.310, 0.703, 0.722 — Shohei Ohtani batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.310, 0.703, 0.722 — Miguel Rojas batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.277, 0.700, 0.712 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Jackson Jobe.
• 0.306, 0.697, 0.715 — Andy Pages batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.284, 0.697, 0.719 — Jacob Wilson batting at Seth Lugo.

Down weighting the pitcher brings Simpson to the top of the list against an aging superstar. Freeman still does well, however.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

• 0.310, 0.730, 0.754 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Max Scherzer.
• 0.328, 0.725, 0.752 — Freddie Freeman batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.288, 0.718, 0.734 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Sandy Alcantara.
• 0.310, 0.703, 0.722 — Miguel Rojas batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.310, 0.703, 0.722 — Shohei Ohtani batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.284, 0.697, 0.719 — Jacob Wilson batting at Seth Lugo.
• 0.294, 0.706, 0.716 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Max Scherzer.
• 0.306, 0.697, 0.715 — Andy Pages batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.277, 0.700, 0.712 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Jackson Jobe.
• 0.268, 0.687, 0.703 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Gage Jump.

The LR puts even less weight on the pitcher, pushing the probabilities higher. Simpson and Freeman tie for consensus top pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Pete Alonso of the Orioles sits in third place after a one for four in a 3-1 Yankees win. Pete Crow-Armstrong owns fourth as he homered and walked twice in a 4-3 walk off win over the White Sox. Alec Burleson of the Cardinals rounds out the top five as he doubled in a 3-0 win over the Reds.

Jo Adell of the Guardians and Mickey Gaspar of the Red Sox tied for the highest game score of the day, a 75. I thought one would come from the Brewers 22-0 win over the Mariners. Adell went three for four with a home run and six RBI in an 8-1 win over the Giants. Since joining Cleveland, seven of his ten hits went for extra bases. Gaspar went two for two with two walks and a home run in a 9-4 win over the Diamondbacks. It was a big night for the backup.

Kuiper noted the players had to “wear” the bad game on a five-hour flight to Cleveland, where they are returning to the field to face the Guardians Tuesday. Kuiper was likely going to tune in to watch his two former teams face off no matter what, but Sunday’s game and the discourse after it has added an extra layer, he said.

“Well, now they can come back today and see if they can do something about it, because that was a bad act, it really was,” Kuiper said.

SFGate.com

The Guardians lead the Giants 7-1 in the fifth inning.

Literally EVERYTHING, at least by the numbers, has been a signal that he’s a superstar. His stats in his time with the organization thus far break down like this:

2025 DSL Giants Black | Dominican Summer League – .288 average | .404 slug | .859 OPS
2026 ACL Giants | Arizona Complex League – .343 | .451 | 1.014
2026 San Jose Giants | Single-A California League – .339 | .446 | .966

“Once he learns to launch balls in the air regularly, he could develop into a .280 hitter with 25 or more homers per season,” Gonzalez’ official MLB scouting report reads. “His twitchy athleticism also translates well to shortstop, where he’s a fluid defender with a strong arm. His combination of impressive tools and advanced instincts has earned him comparisons to Francisco Lindor and José Reyes.”

SI.com

He started the season in Rookie League, where in 122 PA he collected 34 hits, 20 walks, and a hit by pitch, proving he didn’t belong there. At A Ball, in 77 PA, he has the Fibonacci sequence of 13 walks and 21 hits, and he hit four triples! It’s a bit late in the year to send him to AA, but I suspect he’ll skip the A+ level next year. If he shows there is nothing to prove at AA, he might come straight to the majors.

In a post-game interview after the Arizona Diamondbacks’ 11-1 loss to the Boston Red Sox, Torey Lovullo explained Ketel Marte’s absence.

While he couldn’t divulge the exact reason why Marte was unavailable to play, Lovullo sent a message of love and care to him and wanted everyone to know that he is alright.

“No, not really. I love him, and I care for him. He’ll be okay. He is fine. I want you guys to know that I just care about him. So does everybody in that room.”

Sports.Yahoo.com

Here’s wishing Marte the best.

The Mariners visit the Brewers with Bryce Miller taking on Kyle Harrison. Miller owns a 3.39 ERA but just a 4-6 record. The team just can’t convert his good outings, going 5-10 in his starts. Harrison, with a 3.47 ERA, stands 9-3, with the team 13-6. The Brewers rank fifth in the majors in runs per game at 4.86, while the Mariners rank 29th at 3.91 runs per game.

Enjoy!

Update:

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.299, 0.701, 0.698 — Michael Harris II batting at Zebby Matthews.
• 0.293, 0.702, 0.716 — Freddie Freeman batting at Ryan Feltner.
• 0.289, 0.714, 0.726 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Cade Gibson.
• 0.285, 0.693, 0.690 — Ernie Clement batting at Nick Martinez.
• 0.284, 0.696, 0.715 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Jackson Perkins.
• 0.282, 0.682, 0.657 — Ceddanne Rafaela batting vs. Merrill Kelly.
• 0.278, 0.682, 0.667 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Shane Baz.
• 0.278, 0.680, 0.684 — Shohei Ohtani batting at Ryan Feltner.
• 0.277, 0.679, 0.684 — Miguel Rojas batting at Ryan Feltner.
• 0.277, 0.674, 0.672 — Drake Baldwin batting at Zebby Matthews.

Harris tops this list as Matthews saw his K rate drop this season, leading to more hits.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.289, 0.714, 0.726 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Cade Gibson.
• 0.293, 0.702, 0.716 — Freddie Freeman batting at Ryan Feltner.
• 0.299, 0.701, 0.698 — Michael Harris II batting at Zebby Matthews.
• 0.260, 0.701, 0.709 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Jose Soriano.
• 0.284, 0.696, 0.715 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Jackson Perkins.
• 0.285, 0.693, 0.690 — Ernie Clement batting at Nick Martinez.
• 0.258, 0.691, 0.704 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Keider Montero.
• 0.258, 0.686, 0.674 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Keider Montero.
• 0.282, 0.682, 0.657 — Ceddanne Rafaela batting vs. Merrill Kelly.
• 0.278, 0.682, 0.667 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Shane Baz.

It’s a low probability day as Arraez tops the NN list, with only four batters receiving a probability of at least .700. The missing high BA percent of Offense hitters didn’t make the Log5 cut, but appear here.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

• 0.289, 0.714, 0.726 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Cade Gibson.
• 0.293, 0.702, 0.716 — Freddie Freeman batting at Ryan Feltner.
• 0.284, 0.696, 0.715 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Jackson Perkins.
• 0.260, 0.701, 0.709 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Jose Soriano.
• 0.258, 0.691, 0.704 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Keider Montero.
• 0.299, 0.701, 0.698 — Michael Harris II batting at Zebby Matthews.
• 0.285, 0.693, 0.690 — Ernie Clement batting at Nick Martinez.
• 0.277, 0.679, 0.684 — Miguel Rojas batting at Ryan Feltner.
• 0.278, 0.680, 0.684 — Shohei Ohtani batting at Ryan Feltner.
• 0.274, 0.675, 0.679 — Andy Pages batting at Ryan Feltner.

Freeman finishes second in all three lists but Arraez edges him out for the consensus top pick. They are your double down choice for today.

Alec Burleson of the Cardinals played both ends of a doubleheader, going three for nine with a double and two RBI on the day to move into third place. St. Louis split the two games with the Reds, winning the first 2-1 while the Cincinnati prevailed in the night cap 6-5.

Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs returned to the top five in fourth place as he posted the highest game score of the day, an 89. He went four for five with a walk, a double, and two home runs in the 7-5 win over the White Sox. He reaches the 30 home run mark for the second year in a row, and has plenty of time to top his 31 from 2025.

Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres rounds out the top five after an 0 for 3 with a sacrifice fly in a 2-1 Mets win.

Major League Baseball’s team owners unanimously have approved the sale of the San Diego Padres to an investor group led by private equity billionaire José E. Feliciano and his wife and business partner, Kwanza Jones.

The league announced the approval Monday after a vote. Feliciano and Jones reached an agreement in May to buy the Padres from the family of late owner Peter Seidler at an MLB-record valuation of $3.9 billion. The deal is still contingent on the official closing of the transaction in the coming weeks.

“José and Kwanza understand the unique place the Padres hold in San Diego and the powerful bond between the club and its fans,” MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said in a statement. “We look forward to their leadership of the Padres and to working with them to build on the club’s strong foundation in a market that is so important to Major League Baseball.”

SNRNews.com

Maybe the Padres will celebrate with their first World Series win. They are 17-5 in their last 22 games, as it is their turn to get hot. They cut the Dodgers lead in the NL West to seven games.

TTO seems like entropy, One needs to constantly work to counter it, or everything flies apart.

Week twenty continued a down trend in offense. as games produced 8.65 runs per game. Strikeouts came in low at 16.1 per game versus 16.7 for the season, but that didn’t help BABIP hits at 13.6 per game versus 14.0 for the season.

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.325, 0.739, 0.769 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Janson Junk.
• 0.301, 0.724, 0.746 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Brandon Young.
• 0.295, 0.703, 0.719 — Freddie Freeman batting at Tomoyuki Sugano.
• 0.289, 0.698, 0.680 — Otto Lopez batting at Cristopher Sanchez.
• 0.287, 0.683, 0.677 — Brandon Marsh batting vs. Janson Junk.
• 0.285, 0.690, 0.675 — Michael Harris II batting at Bailey Ober.
• 0.284, 0.704, 0.718 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Framber Valdez.
• 0.283, 0.697, 0.686 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Framber Valdez.
• 0.282, 0.697, 0.703 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Brandon Young.
• 0.282, 0.684, 0.693 — Miguel Rojas batting at Tomoyuki Sugano.

The Cardinals and Reds play a doubleheader today, so be careful picking from those games.

The three systems are in very good agreement on the top of the list. Simpson’s batting averages reprsents 73% of his offense, the highest in the majors this season:

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.325, 0.739, 0.769 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Janson Junk.
• 0.301, 0.724, 0.746 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Brandon Young.
• 0.284, 0.704, 0.718 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Framber Valdez.
• 0.295, 0.703, 0.719 — Freddie Freeman batting at Tomoyuki Sugano.
• 0.289, 0.698, 0.680 — Otto Lopez batting at Cristopher Sanchez.
• 0.283, 0.697, 0.686 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Framber Valdez.
• 0.282, 0.697, 0.703 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Brandon Young.
• 0.285, 0.690, 0.675 — Michael Harris II batting at Bailey Ober.
• 0.265, 0.686, 0.706 — Jacob Wilson batting at Michael Wacha.
• 0.282, 0.684, 0.693 — Miguel Rojas batting at Tomoyuki Sugano.

Arraez comes in tied for fourth the Jake Mangum at 60%:

Arraez owns more power

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

• 0.325, 0.739, 0.769 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Janson Junk.
• 0.301, 0.724, 0.746 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Brandon Young.
• 0.295, 0.703, 0.719 — Freddie Freeman batting at Tomoyuki Sugano.
• 0.284, 0.704, 0.718 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Framber Valdez.
• 0.279, 0.681, 0.708 — Trea Turner batting vs. Janson Junk.
• 0.265, 0.686, 0.706 — Jacob Wilson batting at Michael Wacha.
• 0.282, 0.697, 0.703 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Brandon Young.
• 0.258, 0.679, 0.694 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Mason Barnett.
• 0.282, 0.684, 0.693 — Miguel Rojas batting at Tomoyuki Sugano.
• 0.279, 0.679, 0.688 — Shohei Ohtani batting at Tomoyuki Sugano.

Freeman doesn’t fit the mold at 45.6%

The BA circle is still large however.

Arraez and Simpson stand as the unanimous double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres remained in second place as he helped the team to a 5-0 win over the Guardians with a two for five from the lead-off slot.

Alec Burleson of the Cardinals ranks third after another big game, going three for five with a double and a home run in an 11-4 win over the Cubs. Burleson now owns 53 extra-base hits on the season. His came score of 73 ranked third best on the day, while his teammate, Jordan Walker, score the top score of the day. He went three for four with a hit by pitch, two doubles, and a home run for a score of 81. Walker bring his extra-base hit total to 50.

Pete Alonso of the Orioles rounds out the top five in fourth place. He went one for one with a double and two walks in a 10-2 win over the Rays. Baltimore sweeping Tampa Bay in St. Petersburg.