The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.314, 0.735 — Ildemaro Vargas batting at Tomoyuki Sugano.
• 0.310, 0.718 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Kyle Leahy.
• 0.297, 0.691 — Daylen Lile batting vs. Chris Bassitt.
• 0.290, 0.711 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Sandy Alcantara.
• 0.290, 0.715 — Luis Arraez batting at Luis Severino.
• 0.288, 0.676 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting vs. Chris Bassitt.
• 0.288, 0.686 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Cristopher Sanchez.
• 0.287, 0.696 — Otto Lopez batting at Nick Martinez.
• 0.283, 0.663 — CJ Abrams batting vs. Chris Bassitt.
• 0.283, 0.652 — Chase DeLauter batting vs. Chris Paddack.

Vargas posted a big night at Coors Field on Friday, four for five with a double to raise his BA to .347. Sugano owns low walk and home runs rates, so plenty of balls should be put in play against him. He can get away with it as his opposition BABIP is just .227.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.314, 0.735 — Ildemaro Vargas batting at Tomoyuki Sugano.
• 0.310, 0.718 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Kyle Leahy.
• 0.290, 0.715 — Luis Arraez batting at Luis Severino.
• 0.290, 0.711 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Sandy Alcantara.
• 0.280, 0.702 — Miguel Andujar batting at Logan Gilbert.
• 0.287, 0.696 — Otto Lopez batting at Nick Martinez.
• 0.280, 0.692 — Ernie Clement batting at Casey Mize.
• 0.297, 0.691 — Daylen Lile batting vs. Chris Bassitt.
• 0.278, 0.689 — Shea Langeliers batting vs. Trevor McDonald.
• 0.273, 0.689 — Xavier Edwards batting at Nick Martinez.

For the second day in a row, Vargas and Witt rank as the double down picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Aaron Judge of the Yankees stayed on top with a one for four in a 5-3 win over the Mets. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals gained a little ground with a two for five, including a double, in a 5-4 Cardinals win. Brice Turang of the Brewers went one for four in a 3-2 win over the Twins for third place. Shea Langeliers of the Athletics rounds out the top five with another one for four in a 5-2 win over the Giants.

Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies posted a game score of 82, the highest on the night to put himself in sixth place. Schwarber went three for five with two home runs and a walk in an 11-9 win over the Pirates, Philadelphia erasing an early 6-0 Pittsburgh lead to win the game in ten innings. Schwarber hit nine home runs in his last eight games to bring his total to 20 on the season. With that number of homers in 45 team games, he’s on a pace for 72 home runs in 2026. Note that Musings Marcels indicated Schwarber’s home run rate would be 0.0618 per PA. He is averaging 4.5 PA per game. That should give him another 527 PA on the season. So if he returns to his Marcels average, he would hit another 33 homers in 2026, or 53 on the year. I think the actual pace and the Marcel regression gives us a pretty good range as to where Schwarber will end up. The midpoint would be 62 or 63 homers. The 63 mark would be the most hit by a player outside of the PED era.

Arrighetti is at 94 pitches. I suspect he’ll come out for the eighth, but he may not last the eighth. The Astros lead 1-0.

Update: With a man on first with a walk and one out, Justin Foscue lines a single to leftfield in the eighth inning to break up the no-hitter. Arrighetti comes out of the game with two on and a 1-0 Astros lead.

Capra made his big league debut with the Mets in 1971, making appearances in three seasons before having his rights sold to the Braves before the 1974 season. 

He had a career season that year, making the National League All-Star team for Atlanta while posting a 16-8 record and winning the NL ERA title with a 2.28 mark. He also received down-ballot Cy Young and MVP votes.

NYPost.com

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Capra went from a 40 to 50 inning reliever with the Mets to a 217 inning reliever with the Braves. He pitched great, but injuries ended his career three years later. He serves as a good example of why pitchers build their innings over time in the current period.

Smith will remain in a Dallas-area hospital until he has returned to full health, which is expected to be within 7-10 days, the team said Friday. A plan for return to play will be determined once Smith resumes physical activity.

Chron.com

Here is wishing him a complete and speedy recovery.

Photos and video found on social media showed the athletes in the pit at cockfighting arenas in Puerto Rico and on social media posts promoting cockfights. Diaz, who is a three-time MLB All Star, and the Ortiz brothers, who finished 1-2 in the Kentucky Derby on May 2, all are from Puerto Rico.

A federal ban prohibits cockfighting in all 50 states and U.S. territories, including Puerto Rico.

USAToday.com

The rights groups want the athletes banned, but bigger concern might be law enforcement Going to jail makes a suspension superfluous.

Two days after leaving his start early with left elbow posterior soreness, Fried underwent testing Thursday that revealed a left elbow bone bruise that’ll force him to land on the 15-day injured list, the Yankees announced Friday before facing the Mets in the Subway Series.

Imaging will be taken again “in a few weeks,” the team also revealed.

Fried had been central to the Yankees’ strong start to the season, posting a 3.21 ERA through 10 starts for a rotation that entered Thursday with the highest fWAR (5.7) in the majors.

NYPost.com

This seems like an issue that will heal. It was bothering him in other starts, and better to get him healthy for the second half of the season than lose him to something worse.

The City and County governments will officially consider the MOU during meetings next week, a step that would not finalize the stadium deal, but would move Tampa, Hillsborough County and the Rays into the next phase of negotiations. 

Hagan (county commissioner), who has worked on the Rays stadium issue for more than 16 years, said the latest framework is the closest local officials have ever come to reaching an agreement with the team.

FloridaPolitics.com

The governments are offering nearly $1 billion in support of the project, so we’ll see how taxpayers feel about that. They are promising $55 billion economic return to the region, but that kind of return seldom materializes from these projects.

A pair of sub-2.00 ERA pitchers battle in Queens as Cam Schlittler leads the Yankees against the Mets and Clay Holmes. After giving up eight home runs in 73 innings least season, Schlittler allowed just one in 53 1/3 innings this season. Holmes allowed three dingers in 48 1/3 innings, while walking just 16 batters.

Finally, the Padres send Randy Vasquez against the Mariner and Emerson Hancock. Vasquez upped his K rate this season, 8.53 per nine IP compared to 6.17 per 9 IP for his career. Hancock struck out 50 batters in 47 2/3 while walking just nine.

Enjoy!

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.334, 0.737 — Ildemaro Vargas batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.325, 0.725 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Dustin May.
• 0.305, 0.716 — Luis Arraez batting at Aaron Civale.
• 0.304, 0.698 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Aaron Nola.
• 0.297, 0.715 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Janson Junk.
• 0.291, 0.680 — Ryan O’Hearn batting vs. Aaron Nola.
• 0.291, 0.694 — Shea Langeliers batting vs. Tyler Mahle.
• 0.291, 0.673 — Maikel Garcia batting at Dustin May.
• 0.287, 0.674 — Nolan Arenado batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.285, 0.670 — Starling Marte batting at Dustin May.

Vargas against Freeland in Denver seems like a match made in heaven and the Log5 method recognizes that.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.334, 0.737 — Ildemaro Vargas batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.325, 0.725 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Dustin May.
• 0.305, 0.716 — Luis Arraez batting at Aaron Civale.
• 0.297, 0.715 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Janson Junk.
• 0.279, 0.704 — Miguel Andujar batting at Emerson Hancock.
• 0.304, 0.698 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Aaron Nola.
• 0.291, 0.694 — Shea Langeliers batting vs. Tyler Mahle.
• 0.280, 0.689 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Janson Junk.
• 0.273, 0.686 — Otto Lopez batting at Jesse Scholtens.
• 0.262, 0.680 — Brandon Marsh batting at Braxton Ashcraft.
• 0.291, 0.680 — Ryan O’Hearn batting vs. Aaron Nola.

The two systems do a great job of matching at the top today, both putting Vargas, Witt, and Arraez 1-2-3. Note that Arraez is just 4 for 23 against Civale in their careers with no walks and two strikeouts. For some reason, all the balls in play just don’t find holes.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Brice Turang of the Brewers doubled and walked twice in a 7-1 win over the Padres to sit in third place. Shea Langeliers of the Athletics continued his hot hitting with a 3 for 5 in a 5-4 comeback win for the Cardinals.

Josh Jung of the Rangers did not play on Wednesday, but slides into fifth place as others in front of him fell in the rankings. Jung greatly reduced his K rate this season. It stands at 26.6% for his career, 15.9% in 2026. That helped raise his BA to .325 versus .262 for his career, and brought his OBP up from a poor .306 to a great .372. He’s also slugging .510.

The best game score of the day belonged to J.J. Bleday of the Reds, an 80. He posted three for five with two home runs and six RBI in a 15-1 thrashing of the Nationals. He owns RHP this season, and owns Barry Bonds like a .366/.490/.854 slash line against them. He started the season at AAA, so only has 66 PA under his belt.

The Bill James Pitcher Rankings differ in speed to the top, the James rating push a pitcher ahead much more slowly. I will be looking at the top 30 instead of the top 20. For speed of computation, I am only looking at ranks on days the pitcher appeared in a game. Pitchers will be included in a season if they ranked 30 or better on at least one of those days, including the post season.

In determine seasons pitched, I ordered the seasons from earliest to latest by their appearance. If they did not pitch in a season, that season is not included. So Kerry Wood‘s third season occurred in his fourth year. I also limited the data to the 30 team era, 1998 and on.

The first table shows the number of pitchers per year meeting the criteria of third season or less, at least one appearance in the top 30 on a day that he pitched:

We are only about a quarter through the 2026 season. Cam Schlittler ranks 47th and Nolan McLean ranks 96th. They may move up quite a bit by the end of the year. Even with those two, the season doesn’t look at that unusual. There a plenty of five pitcher seasons in the 2010-2013 was a low point, with no one making the cut in 2012.

For each season, here are the pitchers who qualified:

There are a number of impressive names on the list.

Update: The Mariners joined the club with an 8-3 win over the Astros.

Keider Montero of the Tigers faces Nolan McLean of the Mets. Montero’s posts low rates in all three of his true outcomes, but the low K rate has not led to more hits as he is another pitcher with a low opposition BABIP, .235 this season and .282 in his short career. McLean gives batter the double whammy of a high strikeout rate and a low opposition BABIP, his at .257 this season. That helps him to a 2.78 ERA.

Finally, Braves go for a sweep of the Cubs in Atlanta as Ben Brown battles Chris Sale. Brown went four no-hit innings in his last outing, the first start of the season for him. Sale’s ERA stands at 2.20, with just 12 walks allowed in 49 innings. He did allow six home runs, so the Cubs need to keep the Braves score low and try to pop a couple out of the park to win.

Enjoy!

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.307, 0.713 — Otto Lopez batting at Zebby Matthews.
• 0.299, 0.688 — Yordan Alvarez batting vs. Luis Castillo.
• 0.297, 0.710 — Xavier Edwards batting at Zebby Matthews.
• 0.290, 0.675 — Julio Rodriguez batting at Mike Burrows.
• 0.290, 0.704 — Luis Arraez batting at Emmet Sheehan.
• 0.285, 0.699 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Anthony Kay.
• 0.284, 0.666 — Wilyer Abreu batting vs. Jesus Luzardo.
• 0.281, 0.644 — Randy Arozarena batting at Mike Burrows.
• 0.276, 0.660 — Josh Naylor batting at Mike Burrows.
• 0.275, 0.659 — Ceddanne Rafaela batting vs. Jesus Luzardo.
• 0.275, 0.645 — Christian Walker batting vs. Luis Castillo.

Lopez increased his aggressiveness at the plate this season, swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone. That led to fewer walks, more strikeouts, but more hits as well.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.307, 0.713 — Otto Lopez batting at Zebby Matthews.
• 0.297, 0.710 — Xavier Edwards batting at Zebby Matthews.
• 0.290, 0.704 — Luis Arraez batting at Emmet Sheehan.
• 0.285, 0.699 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Anthony Kay.
• 0.270, 0.699 — Miguel Andujar batting at Kyle Harrison.
• 0.299, 0.688 — Yordan Alvarez batting vs. Luis Castillo.
• 0.268, 0.688 — Brandon Marsh batting at Ranger Suarez.
• 0.290, 0.675 — Julio Rodriguez batting at Mike Burrows.
• 0.253, 0.673 — Shea Langeliers batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
• 0.251, 0.673 — Dominic Smith batting vs. Ben Brown.

Matthews makes his 2026 debut for the Twins. In 117 MLB innings he allowed 145 despite striking out 131 batters. His opposition BABIP stands at .359, and he allowed 23 home runs. Note that in the minors his high K rate did limit hits, but he still gave up plenty of home runs. The Marlins Lopez and Edwards stand as your double down pair.

I wanted to note that after rising for a while, the league hit average is down to .212. That helps keep the overall probabilities down.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Usually pitchers report forearm tightness before needing Tommy John surgery. Still not good news for Fried.

Bobby Witt of the Royals gained on Judge with a home run and two walks in a 6-4 White Sox win. He hit four home runs in his last six games. Shea Langeliers of the Athletics leads a group that sits about eight points behind Witt. He drew a walk in a 6-2 win over the Cardinals. Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners doubled and walks in a 4-3 Astros win to claim fourth place, and Brice Turang of the Brewers went 0 for 4 in a 3-1 Padres win for fifth place.

The best game score of the day belonged to Mickey Moniak of the Rockies, a 78. He posted a three for five, missing the cycle by a single! His nine total bases in the game raised his slugging percentage to .693 and leads the majors in slugging percentage. Note that while Coors Field adds a lot to his power, he is slugging .500 on the road. He currently ranks 91, as the ranking process discounts offense in high scoring stadiums.

Note that Skenes goes deep in starts now, which is how both Skubal and Zack Wheeler before him produced big leads in the rankings. If seven or eight innings becomes the norm for Skenes, he could sit on top for a very long time. (Note that Wheeler is already moving back up the list.)

The Padres send Michael King against the Brewers and Jacob Misiorowski in Milwaukee. Batter produce very little power against King. He limits hits, with just 28 allowed in 45 2/3 innings and only ten of those went for extra bases. Misirowski keeps blowing batters away with career K rate of 12.85 batters per nine innings, up to 14.32 per 9 IP this season.

Finally, the Giants send Robbie Ray against the Dodgers and Shohei Ohtani. Ray owns a 2.76 ERA despite allowing eight home runs in 45 2/3 innings. Six of those were solo shots and the eight account for ten of the fourteen runs he allowed. Ohtani’s power dipped this season at the plate, but he’s making up for it on the mound. He’s slugging just .427, but striking out batters at a 10.22 per 9 IP clip, and allowed just two home runs in 37 innings. His ERA stands at 0.97.

Enjoy!

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.328, 0.714 — Otto Lopez batting at Simeon Woods Richardson.
• 0.311, 0.706 — Xavier Edwards batting at Simeon Woods Richardson.
• 0.310, 0.715 — Ildemaro Vargas batting at Kumar Rocker.
• 0.310, 0.724 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Matthew Liberatore.
• 0.307, 0.706 — Shea Langeliers batting vs. Matthew Liberatore.
• 0.302, 0.707 — Brandon Marsh batting at Sonny Gray.
• 0.290, 0.684 — Carlos Cortes batting vs. Matthew Liberatore.
• 0.283, 0.660 — Wilyer Abreu batting vs. Andrew Painter.
• 0.280, 0.651 — Liam Hicks batting at Simeon Woods Richardson.
• 0.277, 0.656 — Ceddanne Rafaela batting vs. Andrew Painter.
• 0.275, 0.662 — Masataka Yoshida batting vs. Andrew Painter.

Wilson is day to day.

Lopez and Edwards continue to be a great double down pair on the Marlins. Lopez especially owns a high OBP that is made up mostly of hits, and strikes out very little.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.310, 0.724 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Matthew Liberatore.
• 0.310, 0.715 — Ildemaro Vargas batting at Kumar Rocker.
• 0.328, 0.714 — Otto Lopez batting at Simeon Woods Richardson.
• 0.302, 0.707 — Brandon Marsh batting at Sonny Gray.
• 0.311, 0.706 — Xavier Edwards batting at Simeon Woods Richardson.
• 0.307, 0.706 — Shea Langeliers batting vs. Matthew Liberatore.
• 0.267, 0.699 — Chandler Simpson batting at Dylan Cease.
• 0.290, 0.684 — Carlos Cortes batting vs. Matthew Liberatore.
• 0.250, 0.683 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Noah Schultz.
• 0.263, 0.680 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Griffin Jax.
• 0.266, 0.677 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Jose Quintana.
• 0.231, 0.673 — Luis Arraez batting at Shohei Ohtani.

Simpson is also day to day. Neither Wilson nor Simpson played on Tuesday. That leaves Vargas and Lopez tied for the consensus top pick. If you want to go down to the pitching level to help, Rocker both long and short term comes in at about .239 (regressed) in opposition hit average. Woods Richardson owns a .229 opposition hit average long term, but this season it stands at .270.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Shea Langeliers of the Athletics ranks third after going two for four with a double and a home run in a 6-4 Cardinals win. He is hitting .368/.435/.737 since the birth of his child. Brice Turang of the Brewers returned to the top five in fourth place with a two for four with a double in a 6-4 win over the Padres. He owns a .424 OBP on the season, the perfect lead-off hitter. He adds power as well with a .519 slugging percentage.

Matt Olson of the Braves remained in the top five, now in fifth place, with a one for four in a 5-2 win over the Cubs.

Randy Arozarena of the Mariners posted the highest game score of the day an 87. He went four for four with two doubles and a home run in the 10-2 win. Arozarena is having one of his best seasons getting on base, hitting for a high average and drawing walks. Last night’s three extra base hits sent his slugging percentage up to .465, 30 points higher than his career average.

Update: Mickey Moniak puts a high line drive between left and centerfield for the first hit. Oneil Cruz came close to making the catch with one out in the seventh.

Update: Skenes goes eight scoreless innings, giving up two hits and one hit batter, while striking out ten. That’s good for a game score of 88. That is tied for the second highest game score of the season. Ranger Suarez posted an 89 on April 27th.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.345, 0.720 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.327, 0.716 — Brandon Marsh batting at Brayan Bello.
• 0.323, 0.692 — Ryan O’Hearn batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.318, 0.710 — Andy Pages batting vs. Adrian Houser.
• 0.311, 0.729 — Chandler Simpson batting at Patrick Corbin.
• 0.300, 0.662 — Brandon Lowe batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.299, 0.690 — Josh Jung batting vs. Zac Gallen.
• 0.298, 0.658 — Joey Bart batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.296, 0.661 — Spencer Horwitz batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.295, 0.650 — Konnor Griffin batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.295, 0.680 — Elly De La Cruz batting vs. Miles Mikolas.

It looks like a good day for the Pirates as Lorenzen allowed 62 hits in 39 innings so far this season.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.311, 0.729 — Chandler Simpson batting at Patrick Corbin.
• 0.345, 0.720 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.327, 0.716 — Brandon Marsh batting at Brayan Bello.
• 0.285, 0.712 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Andre Pallante.
• 0.318, 0.710 — Andy Pages batting vs. Adrian Houser.
• 0.290, 0.699 — Yandy Diaz batting at Patrick Corbin.
• 0.281, 0.695 — Otto Lopez batting at Bailey Ober.
• 0.270, 0.695 — Miguel Andujar batting at Brandon Sproat.
• 0.323, 0.692 — Ryan O’Hearn batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.266, 0.691 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Erick Fedde.
• 0.271, 0.690 — Ildemaro Vargas batting at MacKenzie Gore.
• 0.299, 0.690 — Josh Jung batting vs. Zac Gallen.

Both Simpson and Wilson are listed as day-to-day. Simpson did play last night and collected three hits. The NN is less sensitive to pitchers having a bad year, Lorenzen’s three year hit average isn’t that bad.

Gonzales is the consensus top pick. He owns moderately low walk and K rates, with a .391 BABIP this season. No power, however, as his OBP is less than his slugging percentage. Marsh is the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger of the Yankees rank one and three respectively. Judge collected a double, and Bellinger walked twice, but the Orioles took the game 3-2 on a late three-run homer by Coby Mayo.

Matt Olson of the Braves and Ivan Herrera of the Cardinals rank fourth and fifth respectively. Both teams took the day off.

The highest game score of the day came off the bat of Andres Gimenez of the Blue Jays, a 73. Gimenez posted a two for four with two home runs and five RBI in the 8-5 Rays win. Almost all of Gimenez’s damage this season came off his extra base hits. He owns a .252 BA with a .275 OBP, so he eats up a lot of outs. He’s slugging .422, however, with 12 of his 34 hits going for extra bases.