Mortgage Update -- Sam Thompson, Mortgage Blogger

July Jobs Data Is Weak, But Strong Enough To Sock Mortgage Rates

Fri, 07 Aug 2009 08:59:01 -0700

This morning's jobs report is doing a number on mortgage rates, putting another dent in home affordability nationwide.

Despite the slightly flat Unemployment Rate, the government's July Non-Farm Payrolls report reinforced the notion that the recession may be ending soon, if it hasn't already.

Just 247,000 jobs were lost last month -- much fewer than analysts had expected.

Now, if it seems strange to be talking economic recovery while Americans are still losing jobs -- 5.7 million in the last 12 months, in fact -- remember that we have to take the data in context.

Job loss doesn't lead to economic growth, per se, but analysts tend to treat employment data as a lagging indicator. Business is often slow to hire and slow to fire, so the jobs report rarely reflects the "right now".

A terrific real-world example of jobs data as a lagging indicator is that the peak of recent job loss -- January 2009 -- occurred 4 months after the peak of the financial crisis in September 2008.

The same pattern was present during the Recession of 2001.

Government data shows that job loss peaked during the recession in October 2001, 1 month before the recession's official end. Meanwhile, job losses continued nationwide for the next year and didn't turn net positive until October 2002 -- nearly 12 months into the recession's subsequent recovery.

This is what we mean by lagging indicator and it's why investors are cheering today's jobs data. Strength in today's report may be signaling the end of the recession.

Unfortunately for today's rate shoppers, it pushing mortgage rates higher. As stock markets soar, bond markets sink.

Why Now's A Good Time To Consider An Adjustable Rate Mortgage

Thu, 06 Aug 2009 08:00:00 -0700

At least one thing is back to normal in the mortgage markets -- it's no longer cheaper to go with a fixed rate mortgage than an ARM.

As reported by Freddie Mac, a conforming 5-year ARM is priced a half-percent lower than a comparable 30-year fixed.

Earlier this year, the pricing was reversed.

It's uncommon for fixed rate mortgages to be cheaper than comparable ARMs because, with fixed rate mortgages, lenders commit to a particular interest rate over long period of time. There is a lot of risk that comes with doing that.

By contrast, an adjustable rate mortgage is designed so that after a certain number of years, the mortgage rate changes to reflect the current market conditions.

In theory, ARMs are less risky for lenders than are fixed rate mortgages and, therefore, we would expect them to have lower mortgage rates. That wasn't the case for the 6 months ending in early-May, however. When fixed rate mortgages were scraping the 4.500 percent marker in January, 5-year ARMs weren't struggling to stay sub-5.

The same goes for late-April's mortgage rate dip.

Historically, there's been a trade-off between ARMs and fixed rate mortgages.

ARMs give lower mortgage rates with less predictability
FRMs give higher mortgage rates with more predictability

Earlier this year, market conditions rendered fixed rate loans the best of both worlds -- lower rates and predictability. Today, we're back to "normal".

No matter how long you plan to live in your home, talk to your loan officer about your adjustable rate options, if only to know your options. Given today's interest rate disparity and how it can affect your monthly mortgage obligation, you may find the unpredictable nature of an ARM to be acceptable risk.

5 Months In A Row : Pending Home Sales Rise Again

Wed, 05 Aug 2009 08:00:00 -0700

The number of homes under contract to sell rose in June for the fifth straight month.

It's the Pending Home Sales Index's longest winning streak since 2003 and another piece of evidence that the housing market may be rebounding.

The supply of new homes is falling
The supply of existing homes is falling
The Case-Shiller Index showed home value increases in many of its markets

Separately, the data is interesting. All together, it paints the portrait of a recovery.

That said, we can't forget that the Pending Home Sales Index is somewhat unique versus other real estate reports. Whereas data on existing and new home sales measures closed transactions, the Pending Home Sales Index only measures intent to buy.

Just because a home goes under contract, in other words, doesn't mean that it actually will sell.

Purchase transactions can fall apart for a multitude of reasons including, but not limited to, buyer-seller disputes, failed home inspections, and an inability to secure mortgage financing. The Pending Home Sales Index doesn't account for these types of issues.

In general, though, as the number of homes under contract increases, Existing Home Sales increase, too -- usually on a 2-month lag. Home sale data should remain strong through early-Fall, at least.

For active home buyers, be conscious of the fact that that more home sales plus falling home supplies leads to higher home values. If you're looking for a bargain, the longer you wait, the less likely you may be to find it.

Where Does The Money Go?

Tue, 04 Aug 2009 08:00:00 -0700

Where does the money go?

If you're like most U.S. consumers, more than half of it goes to housing and transportation costs.

According to the government's most recent Consumer Expenditure Survey, spending patterns are little changed from years prior.

More money is spent on entertainment and less money is spent on dining out. Beyond that, the figures are somewhat static.

Meanwhile, using on the survey's industry-by-industry breakdown, we can see how monthly housing payments and daily commuting costs impact a household's budget.

For the budget-conscious, going out less often and bargain-shopping can help pad the bottom line, but not as much as living in a less expensive home or moving closer to work.

Even a refinance into lower rates can make a difference.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : August 3, 2009

Mon, 03 Aug 2009 08:00:00 -0700

Mortgage markets improved last week despite a series of volatile trading sessions.

A combination of weaker-than-expected economic data and massive-sized Treasury auctions kept investors guessing and mortgage rates moving.

Weak data nudged rates lower
Treasury auctions pushed rates up

By Friday, however, momentum was in favor of lower rates and that's how the week finished up -- slightly more favorable overall.

It's the second consecutive week in which rates fell.

This week, markets will digest a host of new data. Rate shoppers can expect the volatility to continue.

Monday afternoon, Auto and Truck Sales data is released. We normally don't track this report, but because of the auto industry's role in the economy right now, strong numbers should lead to a mortgage bond sell-off, pushing mortgage rates higher.

Then, Tuesday, the Personal Income and Personal Spending report is released as well as the Pending Home Sales Index. Again, strength in the numbers should result in higher mortgage rates.

Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims will get the market's attention. The data has been trending lower over the past two months and, last week, the rolling, 4-week average posted its lowest mark since January. A reversal in the trend would likely boost the mortgage markets, helping rates to fall.

And, Friday, the jobs report is due.

With unemployment close to 10 percent nationwide and more than 3 million jobs lost this year, investors will respond to "less weak" data with enthusiasm -- a bad result for rate shoppers. No matter what the data says, it's sure to move markets.

VIDEO : Who Should -- And Should Not -- Be Paying Down Their Mortgage

Fri, 31 Jul 2009 08:00:00 -0700

Financial advice is rarely one-size-fits-all, but this interview with Suze Orman is worth a watch.

In 5 minutes with NBC's The Today Show, Ms. Orman covers a ton of relevant ground for homeowners and the public-at-large:

Who should -- and shouldn't -- be paying down their mortgage
What backlash to expect from the Dow's 40% run-up since March
Why July 2009 is so different of an environment from July 2008

Then, as a bonus, Orman explains the relationship between bond prices to bond yields. It's the heart of why mortgage rates rise when inflation is present.

A lot of what Orman talks about is spot-on, but that doesn't necessarily make it appropriate for your individual situation. Before acting on Orman's opinions, talk to your financial professional first.

The Little-Known Reason Why Mortgage Rates Are Rising This Week (And Why They May Go Higher Still)

Thu, 30 Jul 2009 08:00:00 -0700

After starting the week with a run lower toward 5 percent, mortgage rates have reversed course.

It started mid-day Tuesday and the culprit is Basic Economics. Here's why.

Mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds and -- like most things -- mortgage-backed bonds prices are based in Supply and Demand.

When bond supplies grow faster than the corresponding demand for them, bond prices tend to fall and when bond prices are down, bond yields are up.

Meanwhile, this week, the U.S. Treasury is making its largest weekly auction in history. $115 billion in new debt, to be exact. This means that before the week is through, $115 billion in new bond supply will have been introduced into the market and -- so far -- demand hasn't kept pace with the new supply.

Prices are plunging.

For home buyers and rate shoppers, this is especially bad news because mortgage-backed debt is less desirable to investors than is treasury debt. As a result, when treasury debt loses values, mortgage-backed debt tends to lose value, too. Not always, but most of the time.

So, beginning with Tuesday afternoon's auction, debt supplies have been growing faster than buyer demand.

Bond markets are suffering from an abundance of debt supply and it's been a big reason why mortgage rates are rising. The week's not over yet, either. $28 billion is due for auction Thursday.

If demand at the auction is similarly low, watch for mortgage rates to spike again.

Using The Case-Shiller Index To Predict The End Of The Recession

Wed, 29 Jul 2009 08:00:00 -0700

For May, the Case-Shiller Index showed home values up in 15 of its 20 tracked U.S. markets. It's the first time in nearly 3 years that the index showed such strength and a signal that home prices may be turning higher for good.

According to a Case-Shiller Index spokesperson, "this could be a signal that home price declines are finally stabilizing."

However, just because the Case-Shiller Index indicates home values are stabilizing, doesn't necessarily make it true. Real estate is a local phenomenon and the Case-Shiller Index tracks just 20 U.S. cities.

Residents of every other town are unaccounted for.

Additionally, even within the 20 tracked cities, there are distinct neighborhoods and pockets that are under-performing the general market -- just as there are those that are over-performing. The Case-Shiller Index can't get that granular.

Despite its imperfections, the Case-Shiller Index remains a helpful, broader measurement of U.S. real estate. Economists believe that housing led the U.S. into the recession and they believe housing will lead us out, too.

If that's true, May's figures are the next step in the right direction.

More Housing Strength : New Home Sales Surge In June

Tue, 28 Jul 2009 08:00:00 -0700

Once again, the housing market is showing that its worst days may be over.

According to the Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold in June leapt by 11 percent from the month prior. It stands as the biggest one-month jump in 8 years.

A "new home sale" is when a home in any stage of construction -- not yet started, under construction, or already completed -- goes under contract, often with a builder. It's the opposite of an "existing home sale".

In addition to surging sales, the monthly supply of new homes fell to its lowest level in 11 years.

Because home values are based on the relative supply and demand for a particular home in a particular area, anytime that demand for homes grows faster than supply, we would expect prices to rise.

Indeed, that's what we've been seeing.

The combination of low interest rates, seller-paid incentives and a first-time home buyer tax credit is bringing buyers into the market faster than new supply can come online. It's one reason why home prices have stopped falling across many parts of the country.

It's also why home buyers may find it tougher to get "a good deal" in real estate later this year and into 2010. If demand stays high and supplies fall further, sellers should regain the upper-hand in contract negotiations.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : July 27, 2009

Mon, 27 Jul 2009 08:00:00 -0700

Mortgage markets carved out a wide range last week, creating a mixed bag for mortgage rate shoppers.

Rates were much improved on Monday and Tuesday, much worse on Wednesday and Thursday, and idle for most of Friday.

Overall, mortgage rates improved slightly but don't expect the volatility to subside.

There is a ton of economic data scheduled for release this week -- at least one new data point per day, actually. Each could cause mortgage rates to rise or fall:

Monday : New Home Sales
Tuesday : Consumer Confidence
Wednesday : The Fed's Beige Book
Thursday : Initial Jobless Claims
Friday : Personal Consumption Expenditures

If the data points to a rosier outlook for the U.S. economy, expect that mortgage rates will rise. If data looks weak, rates should fall.

There's another factor influencing rates this week, too, and that's the U.S. Treasury's plan to sell its most weekly debt in history. Across four separate auctions, the government is selling $115 billion in notes. If the notes are in low demand, bond prices will fall, pushing up rates.

Indirectly, this should cause mortgage rates to rise. If demand is very weak, mortgage rates should rise by a lot.

This week in mortgage markets is among the most eventful we've seen all year. Expect mortgage rates to be on the move.

Home Supply Falls To An 8-Month Low

Fri, 24 Jul 2009 08:00:00 -0700

The national home supply is falling, down to its lowest levels since December 2008.

In June, there was 9.4 months of supply, down from a year-ago level of 11.0 months. It's one more sign that the housing market may be mending itself.

Housing supply is an important metric because home values across every U.S. market are rooted in Supply and Demand. When the supply of available homes outpaces buyer demand, home values tend to fall. And, by contrast, when homes are relatively scarce, values tend to rise.

We're still a long way from historical averages, but dwindling home inventory may be one reason why the national median sale price rose by $7,000 last month.

A reduction in inventory may also explain why two other popular home value metrics -- the government's Home Price Index and the private sector's Case-Shiller Index -- are each showing signs of a rebound, too.

However, before we get too excited, it's important to remember that home sales of late have been spurred by low mortgage rates and by the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. A real estate trade group says first-timers represent 29 percent of the market, for example.

But so long as rates remain low and buyer stimulus is in place, we can expect that the recent trends in real estate will continue. Inventory should continue to drop and prices should start to rise.

Therefore, if you're planning to buy a home in the next 12 months, buying sooner rather than later may be a smart way to save on your next home.

The Home Price Index Shows That Home Values Increased In May

Thu, 23 Jul 2009 08:00:00 -0700

Home values around the country appear to be leveling.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency's latest Home Price Index report shows values up by nearly 1 percent in May versus the month prior.

Since peaking in April 2007, values remain off by 11 percent nationwide.

The FHFA Home Price Index is an interesting metric. Different from the Case-Shiller Index which collects data from just 20 U.S. markets, the Home Price Index reflects every U.S. home that backs a mortgage sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

In this sense, the FHFA Home Price Index is more "national" than the Case-Shiller Index but the HPI has its flaws, too.

The House Price Index specifically excludes from its measurements the sales price on any home purchase with any of following traits:

Is new home construction
Is a multi-unit property
Is financed by an entity other than Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac

Because of these exclusions, some analysts say the report is incomplete. The same could be said of every method of home valuation, however.

Therefore, what's most important to today's home buyers and sellers is that each of the "popular" home valuation reports shows similar patterns. Home prices appear to have stopped falling and may be even starting to recover.

It won't be for a few years that we'll be able to look back and point to the exact month that real estate bottomed. Nevertheless, considering how the data has presented as of late, it's reasonable to think that we've already hit it. Certainly, that's what the Home Price Index suggests.

For a region-by-region breakdown of the Home Price Index, visit the FHFA website.

Mortgage Rates Drop On Bernanke's "Exit Strategy" From Markets

Wed, 22 Jul 2009 08:00:00 -0700

Mortgage markets rallied Tuesday while Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave his semi-annual testimony to Congress.

By the time the day was over, some conforming mortgage rates were down by as much as 0.250 percent.

One of the leading causes for the market rally was Chairman Bernanke revealing an "exit strategy" from its massive market stimulus.

Until Tuesday, the Fed hadn't gone into much depth about means and methods by which it would unwind its interventions. In addition to penning a widely-read Op-Ed piece in the Wall Street Journal Tuesday, Bernanke testified to Congress that the Federal Reserve has a viable "exit strategy".

Wall Street was pleased to hear it.

The specter of long-term inflation has spooked the mortgage markets off-and-on since the start of the year. It's one of the reasons why mortgage rates have been so jumpy, and why they crossed 6 percent last month. Inflation is terrible for mortgage markets.

So, with the fear of inflation subsiding -- at least temporarily -- mortgage rates sunk Tuesday.

With any bit of luck, momentum will carry rates lower today and through the rest of the week. But, don't get greedy. Mortgage markets are notoriously fickle and one "bad" statement from the Fed Chairman could cause rates to rise right back up.

Bernanke's complete Tuesday testimony can read online at the Federal Reserve website.

Housing Starts Make Its Largest Leap Since 2004

Tue, 21 Jul 2009 08:00:00 -0700

Housing Starts soared in June, thumping analyst expectations for the second straight month.

A "housing start" is a new home on which construction has started. Last month's jump in single-family starts is the largest one-month jump since 2004.

To Wall Street, June's figures are the latest signal that the country's housing markets may be on the mend.

For home sellers, however, the news may not be so rosy. With more homes expected to come on the market, price competition among sellers could intensify and -- all things equal -- that would push sales prices lower.

So far in 2009, that hasn't happened.

As home supply has grown, it's been met by off-setting buyer demand. Spurred by low mortgage rates and an $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit, Americans appear to find today's home buying conditions somewhat ideal.

As a result, purchase activity has been strong and first-time home buyers now account for close to 30 percent of existing home sales.

Rising Housing Starts can be a double-edged sword. It shows strength that builders are more optimistic about the economy, but too much optimism can lead to a glut of unsold homes and that could reverse the recovery's momentum.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : July 20, 2009

Mon, 20 Jul 2009 08:00:00 -0700

Mortgage markets had an awful week last week as a combination of strong economic data and stand-out earnings results led investors into more risky investments.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 7 percent.

Mortgage rates, unfortunately, didn't fare as well. As the first week since June in which mortgage rates rose, rates were up by a lot.

Mostly for three reasons.

The week's first big mortgage rate bump came Tuesday, right after Goldman Sachs released its blowout quarterly numbers. As one of the world's largest financial firms, Goldman's strong showing hinted that the financial crisis may finally be finished.

Next, rates were impacted by the release of the Fed Minutes from its June meeting. In the report, it was revealed that Ben Bernanke & Co raised the economic forecast for both 2009 and 2010, noting that the recession should be ending soon.

Lastly, June data showed that Retail Sales is expanding and that jobless claims are falling -- two potential positives for the U.S. economy that relies so heavily on consumer spending.

This week, without much data, the mortgage market should continue to take its cue from the stock market. If stocks improve, rates are expected to worsen. And vice versa.

The week's key events are Fed Chairman Bernanke's Tuesday testimony on Capitol Hill and Thursday's Existing Home Sales data. Mortgage rates remain volatile so if you're offered a rate that comfortably fits your household budget, consider locking in before the market can change.

The First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit : Use It By December 1, 2009 Or Lose It

Fri, 17 Jul 2009 08:00:00 -0700

The government's First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit expires December 1, 2009.

If you expect to use the program in conjunction with a home purchase, therefore, you may want to consider yourself officially "on the clock".

Assuming a 60-day window between contract and closing, there are now 77 days left to find a home and go under contract for it.

The First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit refunds up to $8,000 at Tax Time for qualified home buyers. A few of the program's qualification criteria include:

Home buyer must not have owned a primary residence in the past 36 months
The home may not be purchased from a family member
The household adjusted gross income must be below $95,000 for single tax filers and $170,000 for joint tax filers

The tax credit itself is limited to $8,000 or 10% of the purchase price, whichever is less.

Remember, though: The refund is a true tax credit -- not a deduction. This means that a taxpayer owing $8,000 to the IRS and claiming the $8,000 First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit would owe the IRS nothing on April 15, 2010.

The complete list of qualifying criteria is posted on the IRS website.

Foreclosures Still Concentrated In Just A Few States

Thu, 16 Jul 2009 07:22:03 -0700

For the fourth consecutive month, the country's foreclosure activity was dominated by a small number of states.

As reported by RealtyTrac.com, more than 50 percent of the country's foreclosure-related actions in June concentrated in just 3 states:

California
Florida
Nevada

The states rounding out the Top 10 include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Texas, Ohio, Illinois and Colorado.

Meanwhile, June's reported foreclosure figures are consistent with the data from earlier this year, suggesting that the foreclosure remedy plans put forth by the government and by lenders can barely keep pace with the national default rate.

Foreclosure-related actions nationwide are up 5 percent from May.

The silver lining in data this negative is that foreclosures are creating tremendous buying opportunities for the right buyers. Because foreclosed homes tend to sell at a discount versus non-foreclosed homes and because mortgage rates are low, home sales are showing strength in a multitude of markets because of ample supply at relatively cheap prices.

Distressed homes accounted for one-third of all existing home sales in May.

Search the complete June 2009 foreclosure report for yourself, including foreclosure heat maps and other trends on the RealtyTrac website.

Why Mortgage Rates Were Up For The Third Day In A Row

Wed, 15 Jul 2009 07:45:00 -0700

Mortgage markets worsened for the third straight Tuesday after the government reported June's Retail Sales report came in slightly better than expected.

Since falling to near 5.000 percent last week, 30-year fixed conforming mortgage rates have risen by almost 3/8.

It's a similar mortgage rate pattern to what we've seen over the last 10 months -- rates drift down to near their "all-time lows", and then surge higher over just a few days time.

This week's movement, in particular, is vexing home buyers and would-be refinancers.

Many people thought mortgage rates would break below the 5.000 percent threshold. The markets, however, had other ideas.

In addition to the unexpectedly strong Retail Sales data, last month's Producer Price Index reported higher than expectations, too.

A rising PPI is important to rate shoppers because the figure is akin to the Cost of Living measurement for household, but for American businesses instead. The thought goes that if business costs are rising, consumer costs will eventually rise, too, as businesses share their expenses with American households.

This is inflationary, of course, and inflation is awful for mortgage rates. It's part of the reason why mortgage rates closed higher again Tuesday.

All year long, mortgage rates have been jumpy and unpredictable. This past week has been no different and it's why you shouldn't necessarily try to time for a market bottom with mortgage rates.

If an interest rate looks good to you today and the payment is manageable, consider locking it in. There's no guarantee rates will ever fall back toward 5.

Falling Gas Prices May Be Linked To Lower Mortgage Rates

Tue, 14 Jul 2009 08:00:00 -0700

If you've been driving lately, you've noticed that the cost of a fill-up has gone down.

According to GasBuddy.com, retail gas now costs $2.52 per gallon, on average nationwide. Since peaking in mid-June, gas prices are down 6 percent.

For the economy, this is an important story.

Because Americans are spending less at the gas pump, they're left with additional dollars to spend in other ways including for everyday items like food and shelter, plus for luxury items, too.

Consumer spending accounts for a huge part of the U.S. economy and falling gas prices give economists one more reason to believe a full economic recovery may be close.

With Back to School season around the corner and the holidays looming, a mini Wealth Effect could propel the economy forward and out of recession.

Falling gas prices can be good for mortgage rates, too.

Because rising gas prices are associated with inflation and inflation is linked to rising mortgage rates, the opposite is often true, too. When inflation pressures recede, mortgage rates tend to fall. And that's what we're seeing in today's market.

As gas prices have fallen, mortgage rates have, too. As a result, home affordability is up.

(Image Courtesy: Department of Energy)

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : July 13, 2009

Mon, 13 Jul 2009 08:00:00 -0700

Mortgage markets improved last week on fresh concerns about the U.S. economy.

With data showing neither overt strength nor weakness, and with earnings season about to start, traders got defensive with their money and parked it in bonds.

As a result, mortgage rates fell in mixed trading last week. It's the third consecutive week in which rates fell.

This week, rates should be in flux with traders watching 3 things.

The first is the aforementioned Earnings Season reports.

Big Banks JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup report quarterly earnings this week. If balance sheets look healthy and markets are encouraged by the results, it could spark a stock market surge, similar to last quarter. This would be bad for mortgage rates.

The second item markets will be watching is economic data. In addition to inflation-related data like the Consumer Price Index, markets are watching for Tuesday's Retail Sales report.

Retail sales are a key economic indicator because consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy. If the data is weak, mortgage rates should benefit.

And, lastly, markets are awaiting the Wednesday release of last month's Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes.

The minutes will give a behind-the-scenes look at the conversation and debate surrounding the Fed's decision to hold the Fed Funds Rate near 0.000 percent and not purchase additional treasury securities on the open market.

Mortgage rates remain volatile. Therefore, if you're actively shopping for a mortgage rate, consider that mortgage rates have been falling for the past 3 weeks and may be due for a reversal. All it would take for that to happen is for this week's economic data to show just a little bit of strength.

We could expect traders to pile back into stocks and mortgage rates to suffer.