At the urging of one of my more advanced Tech Guru friends, I am attending SXSW Interactive this year. Matter of fact, I’m here now, at the Convention Center, killing time before my first round of workshops this afternoon. This is the Tech portion of the now three-part SXSW Festival. The Music and Film portions are the other two.

So, what can a Realtor learn by rubbing elbows with a bunch of geeks and techies at SXSW? A lot, I hope. The business of real estate is now very much a technology occupation. Yes, the “people aspect” and the relationships we build and maintain are still the most important factors, but technology now more than every provides the frameworks and tools that support those relationships, as well as the deal tasks that we perform.

So, even though I remain dubious about most “Social Networking” hype, this blog being the exception, I’ll start off by attending a workshop entitled “Social Media Marketing for your Business“, where hopefully I’ll “Learn solid strategies, how to measure success, and all the tools you need to succeed in the fastest growing marketing medium on the web”.

Yeah, whatever. I’ve still never received a lead from any social networking source other than this blog, but I nevertheless feel it would be a mistake to ignore this topic, especially knowing that my 17 year old daughter and her friends (the future generation of real estate customers) don’t even use email or talk on the phone anymore.

Later I’ll attend a course titled “What are Analytics – A Guide to Practical Data“and hopefully learn to make better sense of and interpret the massive amount of web traffic data produced by the visitors to our website and their behavior once here. I can see the stats and data for our web traffic in Google Analytics, but other than taking note of the number of unique visitors, time on site, search terms that bring people here, and the most popular content pages, I have no diea what to do with the gazillion other pieces of information that get captured ,or if it’s even importat.

I haven’t decided on the third and last workshop for today. Some of the courses have somewhat edgy names, such as “How to not be a *Bonehead* at SWSX”. I substituted the word “Bonehead” in favor of the actual, more offensive pejorative that was used. But I submit if one needs to attend a class on how to make sure you’re not a “Bonehead”, your attendance at said class already makes you one. I think kindergarten level manners will suffice, so no instruction is necessary for this attendee.

Anyway, more to come if anything interesting comes of these next 5 days.

We all know that some Austin MLS listings don’t sell. The reasons vary, but when demand is insufficient to absorb supply, the prettier better priced homes win, and the sellers who love their homes, and express that love and devotion through too-high list prices, get to continue the romance.

Let’s see what that looks like when put on a graph.

This is one of my favorite real estate statistical charts. The relationship between the number of successful sales efforts and the number failed sales efforts in any given market tells us a lot. This graph shows what happened to the relationship of success/failure of Austin’s MLS listings immediately following dot.com boom, 9/11 in 2001, and the subsequent bleeding out of jobs over the next few years. The real estate market became saturated with homes for sale as people had to leave Austin to find jobs, and new people stopped coming.

If you’ve seen the Austin real estate sales history graph that I post every month, you’ll know that home values stayed flat from 2002 through the end of 2005. Volume held steady during that period, but prices were flat while the rest of the country had its massive real estate bubble.

For Austin, there was no bubble. Instead, we suffered with too many homes for sale, not enough buyers, and thus in 2003 the number of listings that departed the Austin MLS as failed sales efforts (Expired or Withdrawn) actually exceeded the closed sales for the entire year. Austin sellers had it rough in 2003.

We’ve recently seen this inverted Sold/Not Sold ratio a lot during recent months throughout 2008 and 2009, but neither year ended with more total failed sales than successful sales. So, in that regard, these past couple of years haven’t been as bad as 2003.

Wanna know what happened to all those unsold homes in Austin between 2002 and 2005, back when foreclosing or short selling was still such a shameful event that sellers knuckled down and figured out how to hang on? A bunch of them became rental properties. This in turn caused a severe over-supply of Austin’s rental home market. Simultaneously, the in-migration that feeds the rental market stopped cold, and the chart below shows the result.

When people can’t sell their homes, and still have to move, and are too proud or unwilling to go into foreclosure, the home becomes a rental. At least, that’s how it use to be. And the above chart explains why 4 bedroom homes that leased to Dell employees in Round Rock for $1,500/mo. in year 2000 were lucky to fetch $1,250 by 2004. Our rental home market in Austin is still climbing back slowly.

Returning to the subject of Not-Solds, in January 2010 we had an inverted Sold/Not Sold ratio. Sylvia and I continue to run into large numbers of over-priced listings as we help buyers look for good values. Some of these listings are actually selling for too much as some buyers operate under the odd believe that it makes sense to pay $16K too much for a home in order to receive an $8K tax rebate. April 30th is going to be a wonderful day, when government meddling in our real estate market ends, hopefully for good, and the over-motivated buyers leave the market.

Meanwhile, I’m not sure what to make of a real estate market that produces a 5% increase in sold prices, and improvement in almost every performance metric while simultaneously giving the finger to 54% of the departed MLS listings, which failed to sell. When more than half the listings in a market cannot find buyers, prices should be dropping, or at least staying flat, not rising 5%.Blame it on the tax credit buyers, bent on trading negative equity for $8K in the pocket.

So it’s with sober caution that we advise current Austin buyers to be willing to walk away from over-priced homes, no matter how frustrating it might feel when it seems inexplicably difficult to find properly valued homes. But it’s not going to surprise me if Austin prices continue to rise through May, then start dropping again, or flatten out, as incentives go away and interest rates rise and we begin the slow return to normalcy in market behavior.

If you’re a seller, get your home on the market, now, and you might get lucky and snag a buyer willing to pay top dollar or more.

Someday in the near future, I’ll be able to post a chart that shows increasing separation month over month of the Sold vs. Not Sold listings. That, to me, will be an indicator that the market might be gaining true, valid strength and returning to normal behavior, where Not Sold equal less than 40% of all departed listings.

The Austin real estate market started 2010 on an upswing. Average sold price is up 5.39% from a year ago, median sold price is up 2.12%, days on market are down. In fact, every measured metric on the chart below moved in a positive direction except for median list price, which is down slightly, but of no consequence. Let’s have a look.

So, is this good news? Maybe. I don’t think sellers should get too excited, and buyers need not start worrying about rising prices. Jan 2009 was a down month, so topping it is nothing to brag about. Nevertheless, I do think our Austin real estate market has sunnier weather ahead, at least for the first half of the year.

The extended tax credit and continued low interest rates will motivate buyers in the lower ranges. An improving job market and the return of good job news, (some of which was announced today with Facebook bringing 200 new jobs and a Solar Panel company bring several hundred more), will cause an already “ok” Austin unemployment rate to keep dropping through the summer, barring any terrible macro-economic setbacks in the national economy. Once interest rates starts rising, as we expect later in the year, that will frighten some additional buyers into getting off the fence for fear of missing out on the good rates.

I think the upper end market will be slower to come back as many of the former $500K to $800K buyers will, I think, scale back lifestyles and settle for less Austintacious digs. Mercedes Homes said as much during a lunch presentation I heard today. They’ve redesigned a bunch of new floorplans to accomodate what their research says will be a more frugal market in the $300K and up range, as buyers seek smaller, better quality homes instead of sprawling big layouts. Makes since to me.

Below are some additional charts and stats. Let’s start with the 23 month lookback chart.

Above we see the up and down market Austin has experienced the past 23 months.But if we go back two years, to early 2008 when we knew we were headed for possible rough waters, if we had hoped only to see average prices hang in there at around $250K, and median prices to hold on at about $190K, we would have been happy to know that we’d spend the next two years bouncing around between $240K-$260K average, and $180K-$200K median.

I’m not ready to say we won’t see some further erosion of prices this year, or soft pockets in the Austin area, but I wouldn’t argue with someone who thinks the worst is behind us either.

And, certainly, I think, for buyers on the fence, the tie breaker goes to the very low interest rates, tax credit incentives, and the likelihood that we have one sluggish year ahead of us at worst. Also, for move-up buyers, you will have to give up less of a discount selling your current lower priced home than you’ll receive purchasing a more expensive home, so this is a good time for you to seriously consider making a move as well.

Let’s look at the price range breakdown of homes that sold in the Austin area in January.

Unless you follow the above chart monthly, you might not know that it’s showing a rising MOI (Months of Inventory). This chart is at once the most useful and least useful for observing and predicting market activity. This is because the numerator used above the denomiator of “Active Listings” is derived from past activity and thus doesn’t necessarily predict future activity.

Also, there are several different ways of determining current volume of sales, none of which are without flaw. Not shown in the chart above is the “number of sales past 90 days” which is divided by 3 to arrive at “current average number of sales per month”. It is that average into which the number of active sales is divided which gives us the “months of Inventory” number. If the market is accelerating, as it may be, the MOI is inflated. If the market is declining, it is deflated.

But months of inventory is an important indicator of market activity, so it can’t be ignored. But we must view it in the context of knowing that November/December sales (which are included in the past 90 days) were pumped up by tax credit buyers. This might happen again in March or April as wave two of first time buyers buyers seek to beat the deadline of April 30, 2010 to write offers.

Having said all that, on face value, the chart indicates a near balanced market up to about the $350K range, with sellers having a slight advantage in the sub $200K range.

We have no Year to Date chart this month, obviously because these are January stats. As usual, questions/comments are welcome.

Sylvia wrote an offer for one of our buyers last week. When the listing agent called to confirm receiving the offer, he immediately started in with rehearsed script-speak. For those of you unaware of “scripts”, they are exactly what you might imagine. Prefab spoken lines to use in certain situations.

Many Realtors and Real Estate Coaches swear by scripts and practice them daily.  Sylvia and I are very familiar with the concept of scripts, we’ve had training in scripts, and we’ve attended workshops at real estate conventions about using scripts. But we don’t employ scripts in a formal way. This blog article will explain why.

I only heard Sylvia’s side of the conversation with the script-driven listing agent, but she filled me in after hanging up saying, “man, everything that guy says is a script”.

It started with: “Got your offer. So … (pause)… your buyer is offering exactly ___% below list price for a listing that has been on the market only ___ days”.

To which Sylvia responded off the top of her head with with: “Well, the offer is based on the market analysis I did, which I sent with the offer. The list price is irrelevant. I determined the market value based on recent sales of similar homes and advised the buyer as to a fair offer price, and that’s what you have. Plus, we’ve sold over half a dozen homes in that neighborhood and we know what those houses are worth”.

Then, as skilled practitioners of script-speak do, whatever you say is ignored. Instead of having a conversation about the comparable sales that were used to justify the offer, the next rehearsed line is uttered, no matter what your response was to the first.

“I’m going to need your buyer to come up to a price my seller can agree to so we can make this deal work and so you and I can both get paid our commissions”.

To that, Sylvia said: “{Agent Name}, I’m not doing this for a commission. I’m helping my buyer find the best value I can for a home that meets his needs. He likes your listing, but it’s over-priced. You have a good clean offer, based on a proper market analysis, and I think the seller should seriously consider accepting the offer as-is”.

I thought it ended shortly thereafter, with the seller and agent not willing to budge from the list price. I was amazed a few days later to be told that the buyer and seller were in fact now under contract for an amount less than the seller’s price and a bit higher than either Sylvia or I felt was justified for our buyer. But the buyer is the one who makes the decision to accept a seller’s counter-offer or not. We just provide the data, our opinion and our advice. So we entered into the inspection period.

The property inspection revealed a bad roof that needed replacing. My roofer went out and confirmed this after the inspection. The roof had multiple active leaks and was at the end of it’s functional life. A new roof was going to be $6,000. I told our buyer that I already thought he was paying a bit too much before the bad roof, but that at least he was in the range I thought it might appraise for. But adding $6,000 to the top of the price put it unquestionably beyond a reasonable value, about 9% more than I though the house was worth. The seller refused to negotiate a new roof into the deal, so our buyer, following our advice, terminated the contract. We know we can find a better deal for him.

As I made my final efforts to negotiate the roof and other repairs with the listing agent (it’s usually me who handles the repair negotiation process instead of Sylvia), I got my own taste of his scripts library. The dumbest one was his parting shot when I called to verify that I had sent the termination notice, to which he responded with a snide, “I guess this house was just more than your buyer could afford”. To that, I simply said, ”Good luck to you. Maybe our next deal together will work out”.

But let’s take a closer look at these real estate agent scripts and see what they accomplish. Let’s start with the first one, used out of the gate by the listing agent.

“Got your offer. So… your buyer is offering exactly ___% below list price for a listing that has been on the market only ___ days”

All I can guess is that this is intended as some sort of Alpha Dog power play, putting the buyer agent on the defensive. It probably works with inexperienced agents and/or agents who don’t know the market or how to defend their offers. It probably causes some agents to doubt their offer, or catches them off-guard, thus allowing this listing agent to assume a dominant stature in the agent/agent dialog and allowing him to control the conversation. Nothing to put an agent in his place like a quick and sudden reprimand.

But I think that’s a mistake. What the script essentially says to a buyer’s agent is, “You are stupid. Your offer is too low. What do you have to say for yourself?” This is unprofessional, in my opinion.

The reason Sylvia sent her CMA with the offer is that we think it’s courteous to do so. It helps the agent and seller understand that this isn’t a “low ball” offer, but a serious offer based on what the home is worth according to market conditions as we see them. Often, the other agent will send back their own CMA, which our script-loving agent eventually did at Sylvia’s insistence, but the comparable sales he used were not proper comps because they were 1) a lot smaller than the subject property (inflating the price per square foot), 2) not properly adjusted for the seller-paid closing costs that almost all of the sales included, and 3) not all from the same neighborhood, but, instead, cherry-picked comps from further away.

Asking the listing agent for the comps used to establish list price of an over-priced listing is a good and fair tactic because it exposes the over-priced listing price as being unsupported by market data. The agent usually cannot justify the list price, though sometimes they do offer rational debate, which sometimes has merit. Sometimes they just admit, “this is what the seller wants to try to get and I don’t have comps, but send me your best offer and I’ll present it”.

This approach is appreciated because it’s the truth and we know sometimes agents take over-priced listings with the intent of getting price drops later on. Some agents actually appreciate the kind of justified offer we send because it helps them say to the seller “this is what I was talking about when we discussed list price, other agents know the market and will run the same comps I showed you before”, and helps them get the over-priced listing lowered to a more reasonable list price.

But when an agent sends back an embarrassing CMA that would flunk a Real Estate 101 Market Analysis course, that’s at the same time funny and sad. Especially coming from a “veteran” agent who ought to know better.

Next script:

“I’m going to need your buyer to come up to a price my seller can agree to so we can make this deal work and so you and I can both get paid our commissions”.

This one is paraphrased somewhat, as Sylvia couldn’t remember the exact script, but the “so we get get paid our commissions” part is accurate. This script extends the “you’re stupid and you’re wrong about the price” bullying tactic, but it further assumes that the buyer agent really needs the commission and might be motivated to try to keep the deal together just so she can get paid a commission.

Unfortunately, I think this also probably works with many agents, especially in a slow market where so many agents in Austin are struggling to get by. I think some agents don’t fight as hard as they should for their clients because they do in fact need this deal to pay next month’s rent, and it possibly affects the manner and vigor with which they advise the buyer. They want the deal to work so they can get paid. just as this listing agent assumes.

But what Sylvia told the agent is the truth. We don’t care about the commission. Realtor-haters may not believe that or understand it, but for us it’s true, and for many very good and successful Realtors we know, it’s true. We do not hesitate, at all, to tell a buyer to walk away from a bad deal, and we do it all the time.

Sometimes the buyer really wants the house and is willing to pay too much, which may seem odd, but it happens. (This is what every seller dreams of, and why some houses do sell for too much). In certain circumstances that can be justified, for example, if your grandmother lives across the street and you need to be close by to care for her. Or this is the only available home in your price range that tracks to the prized set of schools you want your children to attend for the next 12 years.

But absent those sort of factors, and when purchasing the type of “commodity” cookie-cutter home at question in our current example, there is no reason you should pay a price higher than the market value for a home, and your agent should be quick to tell you so and keep looking.

Finally, the parting shot, which rolled off the agent’s tongue like a tried and used script:

“I guess this house was just more than your buyer could afford”.

This rounds out the superiority complex that the set of scripts nourishes for this agent. A better, professional, Realtor to Realtor farewell would have been something like, “sorry we couldn’t work it out. I understand your position but I honestly think my seller is going to do better with the next offer. I hope your buyer finds something more suitable”.

One of the most important relationships we have as Realtors is our relationship with other agents. Every offer is a good offer, whether it works out or not. We always thank agents for sending us an offer and treat them with respect and courtesy. I can’t think of an upside to treating another agent poorly. I’ve seen some terrible, lowball offers tun into great deals for our sellers. And I’ve seen full price offers turn into nightmares. We never prejudge offers. We simply obtain a response from the seller with the assumption that the buyer really does want the house or they wouldn’t have taken the time to write the offer, no matter how low. Neither me or Sylvia would ever wrap up the final conversation about a failed offer by insulting the other agent or his buyer. It’s too bad this other agent sees it differently.

Are scripts a bad thing?

No, scripts are not a bad thing. I used them for years before I even knew what they were or that I was using them. Instead, I would say something to a client or prospect like, “the best way I’ve found to explain this is … “, and then I’d go on and repeat something I’d said the same way a hundreds times before in response to the same question or situation. But it’s not something I designed or stood in front of the mirror practicing, like some agents do.

The difference between “good” scripts and “evil” scripts is the intention behind the script and the sincerity with which it is delivered.

Many sales scripts, the kind you hear used by high pressure salespeople such as telemarketers and car salesmen, are intended to manipulate you toward a specific end that benefits the salesperson, but completely ignores whether or not you need the result sought by the salesperson or whether you’d benefit from it.

I was in a sales script training course once, taught by a highly successful Realtor who was sharing his techniques in a workshop format. He did some role play with a participant and demonstrated how a particular set of scripts would work during a sales listing presentation. When classroom participants would ask, “but what if they say this, or what if they say that”, the answer was “it doesn’t matter, just say the next line no matter what, and keep the conversation going in the direction you want it to go. Their answers don’t matter. Just stick to the script and eventually you wear them down”.

I thought it seemed creepy, phony and I didn’t like the idea of “wearing them down”. I’m not saying this stuff doesn’t work. It just ain’t my cup of tea, nor Sylvia’s. We probably have a lower listing appointment closing ratio than we’d have if we were more willing to practice and use scripts, but those kind of Realtor scripts are not for us. We want people to know and trust us, not our scripts.

So, the scripts we do use are mainly informational and help people better understand a circumstance or situation.

For example, I have an “old house” script, which means that buyers who are interested in older 1970s homes will hear me go over a set of realities that are going to come into play at inspection time, which is that the older homes produce “ugly” inspections due to code related issues found in older homes. I’ll ask a buyer if she’s prepared to survive that sort of inspection, and I try to set expectations. This is to benefit the buyer by educating. It’s not a sales tactic to “close” a deal.

So, if you’re a Realtor who practices scripts, ask yourself who the script benefits. If it’s benefiting your ego, by belittling other agents, you are out of integrity and you are not in service to your clients, but rather your over-inflated opinion of yourself.

If you have scripts to “close” a buyer into writing an offer they are not ready to write, then you haven’t properly educated that buyer and you need to slow down. If you use scripts to pressure sellers into listing with  you, by over-promising the obtainable sales price, or “wearing them down”, you are again serving yourself and not the client, and you give us all a bad name when you do that.

If your scripts manipulate and pressure people rather than educate and convince, then you are, in my opinion, not a good Realtor and you should re-examine your tactics.

I opened my Gmail account this morning to see a new Label called “Buzz” just under my Inbox label. Hmmm. I clicked it and read the “Welcome” letter, spent a few more minutes looking into it at the Google Buzz site, Read the Google Blog about Buzz, watched a video about it (see bottom of this post),  then I immediately removed it from my email interface by performing the following task:

Click: Settings -> Labels -> Hide (next to the Buzz Label). Now the “Buzz” label is not visible from my Gmail interface.

Sorry Google. My Gmail interface is a productivity tool. I have a lot of stuff to get done. I pay you an annual fee for the extra storage space I need. I don’t want a bunch of new crap inserted into my inbox which will no doubt slow me down, distract my thinking and reduce my productivity.

It is with great diligence that I put the Labels and Filtering options in Gmail to use in order to keep stuff out of my face that I don’t want or need to see immediately, or at all. I don’t need a new Google Buzz Box providing an endless stream of the social goings on and digital mussing of the people in my Gmail contact database, which is currently at 2700+ and growing daily. If I want to know what people are doing, and I have time to waste, I have other ways of accomplishing that, such as visiting Facebook or surfing blogs.

The advertised features of Google Buzz are:
No setup needed – Automatically follow the people you email and chat with the most in Gmail.
SC: Yeah, I noticed that, and turned it off immediately. No thanks.

Share publicly or privately – Publish your ideas to the world or just to your closest friends.
SC: I’m trying to catch up on email, not share my ideas with the world.

Inbox integration – Comments get sent right to your inbox so it’s easy to keep the conversation going.
SC: No! Leave my inbox alone. I work hard keeping it at “zero”.

See updates in real time – New posts and comments pop in as they happen. No refresh required.
SC: Oh Dear God No! Don’t you get it? I’m trying to work and get stuff done. Leave me alone.

Just the good stuff – Buzz recommends interesting posts and weeds out ones you’re likely to skip.
SC: No. Don’t recommend anything to me. Stop bothering me. Go away, I’m working.

Maybe this is a knee-jerk reaction and I’ll gradually become aware of ways that Google Buzz can be utilized while remaining segregated from the focus and attention I need to maintain when in my “Email Office”. I just don’t feel like I need more social networking stuff foisted upon me at this point in life. Enough already.

Email Efficiency – Not Letting Email Run Your Life
At present, I have a systematic and specific way that I deal with email. My routine is a result of reading about how others deal with high-volume email and adopting those various ideas and concepts. If you recognize some of these ideas, you’ll know they are not my inventions. I borrowed them all. If you constantly feel overwhelmed by email, and are guilty of letting things slip through the cracks because they fall off your radar, the following routine is what helps me stay on top of (or quickly dispense with) the 200-300 emails that come at me each day. Here’s what I do.

First, let’s start with the list of things that need to happen with an email you receive. The list is rather small actually, which should give comfort. There are only 5 things that can result from an email I receive:

1) Delete/Archive – this is the most common. These don’t even get read.
2) Reply Immediately – stuff like “got it”, or “thanks, see you then”, etc.
3) Reply later – will take longer than 1 minute, or requires research or some thinking first.
4) Forward – send to someone else to handle.
5) Create a To Do, or Task – Something needs to get done, like call a plumber, an appraiser, set an appointment, find something and send, etc.

That’s it. I defy you to send an email to me that won’t be handled in one of the above 5 ways. You can’t do it. There is nothing else I can do with an email outside that universe of 5 things. Knowing this helps construct the email management framework that Gmail so brilliantly enables and facilitates.

Use Labels: I have many different “Labels” (or Folders in Outlook terminology) into which I either manually move emails or, better yet, into which they are filtered automatically. The main productivity labels I use are “Reply”, “To Do”, Followup”, “Print” and “Call”. The benefit of Labels over Folders is that an email can have multiple labels assigned to it. For example, if I receive an attachment I need to sign and return, that would get tagged as “Print” and “To Do”.

So, if I haven’t deleted or responded immediately, or forwarded an email (usually to Sylvia to handle), it will instead be immediately moved out of my inbox and into one or more of the “Reply”, “To Do”, “Call”, or “Print” boxes. Each day, more than once a day, I clean out my inbox and take it, literally, to zero emails. This is version of Merlin Mann’s “Inbox Zero” concept, which borrows a lot from David Allens GTD – “Getting Things Done” concepts.

Next, I “process to zero”, when possible, the Label folders. That means I click on my Reply Label and start plucking those responses off one by one until I have none left. They get “unlabeled” as I go. Next I go through my “Call” label and make those phone calls. Same with the Print, To Do, and Task lists.

The Followup label can hold both received and sent emails. These are generally things awaiting response or outcome that I don’t want to forget about. For example, if I ask my roofer to go provide a bid on a house, I email him the info and then label the email as “Followup” so I won’t forget to check back with him in case I don’t hear back in a day or two. Once I do, I remove the Followup label.

Make sense? And yes, the labels get filled and clogged and I’m not always able to clear my Reply box in one sitting or get my To Do tasks done. Often it’s email triage, dealing with the more important or time sensitive matters first. It’s only during the slowest times that I can accomplish Zero status on all labels, but this system ensures that nothing is forgotten.

Use Filters – Gmail has powerful filtering capabilities that allow certain emails to be filtered automatically and moved to a Label without ever appearing in the Inbox. This is an amazing productivity tool and method of keeping non-urgent emails away from your eyeballs.

For example, I have a Label called “Facebook” and I have a Gmail filter that sends all emails from Facebook directly into the Facebook Label, thus skipping the inbox and not cluttering my productivity with Facebook junk. I never see these facebook emails until I make the decision to scan through them en masse. When I so choose, I will click the Facebook Label and go into “facebook mode” for 10 or 15 minutes, and dispense with the Facebook related stuff inside a specific time frame and within a specific mindset. Usually late at night during “off” hours, though not always. Then it’s back to work.

I have dozens of such filters. One catches all the Realtor newsletters and info that will never be urgent or require my immediate attention, but through which I like to scan and read every day or two so I can stay up to date on what’s going on in my industry. But I don’t need nor do I allow that news to interrupt my day by appearing in my inbox at random times.

Hopefully this helps explain my knee jerk reaction to Google Buzz showing up unannounced, without invitation, to my Inbox Party. I ask just two questions when I see something like Google Buzz:
1) Will it make more more productive and efficient, or will it waste my time?
2) Will it generate more leads? That is, will it help me connect and/or stay connected in a meaningful, non-intrusive way with past and future clients who I’d like to do future business with?

The answer to #1 is clear. It’s a new way to waste time.

The answer to #2 is “I don’t know yet”.

I’ll set aside time and look into it further down the road. For now, other, more geeky people can be the “early adopters” , make assessments and write about it. But Google Buzz seems to me at first glance just one more thing to nourish and foster what has become an ADHD society ever more immersed in digital media and ever more addicted to useless, instant tidbit information from people we don’t know, or barely know, or don’t care about, regarding stuff that doesn’t matter.

Below is a YouTube Video explaining what you can do with Google Buzz.

Below is one of my favorite commercials from the Super Bowl, though I disagree with the premise. I do appreciate the humor though. The message to married men, perhaps not completely tongue-in-cheek, is “you’ve sacrificed a lot, but surely there is a limit to your chivalry. Drive the car you want to drive”.

The commercial aims to portray married men as whipped dogs suffering under the oppressive thumb of dominating wives who’ve stripped us of our manhood via forced compliance with petty etiquette, housekeeping and social demands. The only hope for retaining our last bit of manhood, according to the message, is to drive a manly gas guzzler with a throaty sounding exhaust system, chiseled lines and lots of horsepower. Thus the title of the piece, “Man’s Last Stand”. Let’s have a look.

OK, so I have something else to add to the list of statements that could have been included in this commercial:

“I will let you make the final decision on which house we buy”.

Should husbands defer and give the final decision of which house to buy to our wives? Absolutely. As a husband, I’ve never once regretted letting my wife have her way or over-ride me on decisions related to house, home or kids. I also pick up my laundry, try to remember to put down the toilet seat, say “yes” when I know it’s the only practical answer, keep my mouth shut when when no upside utterance exists. Luckily I’m not forced to watch vampire shows or walk a dog, but do any of these other things make me less of a man? No.

As a buyer agent, I’ve pulled more than one husband aside and delivered this exact “”As a husband, I’ve never once regretted …” script. I think every husband who wants to impose his house hunting requirements on a reluctant wife should consider what I have to say.

A house is a home. Family completes the home, whether “family” is a freshly married couple without kids, or aging baby boomers (like us) with teens. Most of my men friends are like me. We’re simple creatures. I can function in just about any living space. I could live in a garage and be happy. But no matter where I live, life is much better when my wife is completely happy. Much of her happiness is derived from our living circumstances, our home.

At present, as our youngest daughter approaches the end of her K-8th years at our nearby private school, Sylvia wants to move to Westlake where our youngest can live in the same neighborhood as the kids she will attend school with at Westlake High. Many of these kids she already knows from volleyball league.

Our oldest attends Westlake High as a transfer student while we remain in Oak Hill. This has been fine except that she never invites school friends over. She thinks they’ll think it’s weird that she lives so far, way out in Oak Hill. She thinks her friend’s parents will find it inconvenient to drive them “way out here” and pick them up. All of her social interaction and group studying outside of school happens at her friend’s houses, some of whom live within walking distance from Westlake High.

We’ve remained in Oak Hill because we live three blocks from our younger daughter’s school. Our oldest can, when needed, drive herself to school and to meet with friends. So the commuting logistics make more sense to remain closer to the private school. But when our oldest heads to college and the youngest enters 9th grade, that logistical challenge will be eliminated. We could remain where we are and enroll our youngest as a transfer student as well, but Sylvia doesn’t want her to suffer the same geographic dislocation issues that bother our oldest, so we’re making the move to Eanes ISD either this summer or next, depending on whether our current home sells fast or not.

My Opinion, and Does it Matter?
As a man, I pooh pooh this location issue and the related hand wringing over where the kids live. I understand the reasoning, but I think it’s much ado about nothing. Our oldest has lots of Westlake friends, and if the truth were told, she would invite them over if we had a Wii and a ping pong table. She says there is “nothing to do” at our house because we don’t have Cable TV, video games or other entertainment. I tell her they could take a hike out our back yard through the woods and go exploring miles of creek beds and wildlife. Or they could play cards. She rolls her eyes.

Furthermore, our house in Oak Hill is actually a closer, faster drive to Westlake High than it is for those who live in Barton Creek West and Senna Hills in Eanes. Google Maps proves it. To be truly close, within walking distance of Westlake High School, in the neighborhood Sylvia likes, we’re looking at 1970/1980s homes that are 1600-2200 sqft starting at around $200+ per square foot, with low popcorn ceilings, small bathrooms and tired, dark kitchens. That’s a pretty big step down in size and quality from the home we currently enjoy.

But none of this matters. It’s not a battle I choose the wage. If my wife Sylvia wants to live in Westlake, Westlake is where we’re going to live. When she’s happy, we’re all happy. She knows best. I assess these things with logic. She has the benefit of a Mother’s Heart. Her intuition and instinct trumps my logic. Of this I am certain, and it is without reservation that I defer to her better judgment.

Does this make me a whipped, emasculated Yes-Boy, like those dudes in the Dodge video? No, it makes me a smart husband with a happy wife and great kids. What greater success is there in life for a man? Since when did being a considerate, decent human being who doesn’t leave his dirty socks laying around make a man less of a man? Since when did a man willing to listen to and respect the wants and desires of his wife become less of a man? Sure, the commercial is funny, and it bears a grain of truth, but it dishonors the collaborative relationship and compromise that makes good marriages work.

At the risk of sounding sexist, I admit to believing that women have a nesting instinct that men lack. So men, if you and your wife are on the exact same page with regard to price, location, schools and the physical attributes you seek in a home, more power to you. But if she has wants and requirements that you don’t understand or agree with, I’m telling you to let her have her way. Just do it. Don’t argue. She knows best. She does.

Acknowledging that and being happy with your willingness defer to her better wisdom is the “manliest” thing you, as a husband, can do, no matter what car you drive.

When should a listing go “on the market”, and what constitutes being on the market? Often we’ll take a new listing with the understanding that it won’t be placed into the Austin MLS until the pre-sale checklist is complete. That checklist includes preparation that the seller needs to complete so that the home can be properly presented to the market from the first day in the MLS.

For some sellers, this involves just minor straightening up. For others, it’s major decluttering, repairs, painting, landscaping, etc. Once the home is prepared, we send the stager, photographer and virtual tour people. Once we have the virtual tour and the photos, the home is ready to be listed in the MLS.

Meanwhile, we often place a sign in the yard with a rider that says “Coming Soon”. We’ll also contact agents that work the area in which the listing is located and let them know we have a new one on the way. Sometimes, this results in a sale before we ever make it into the MLS. Such is the outcome with one of our current listings, which received multiple offers before it was officially “on the market”.

How does this happen?

Pre-marketing a listing can create a sense of urgency for a buyer who wants a specific location and/or type of home. Often the buyer has either ruled out all current inventory or there simply is no invetory that matches what they want, and the “coming soon” listing becomes the only match. The urgency and motivation come into play when the candidate buyer knows that other buyers (potential competitors) will also be interested in the home once they learn of it. By making an early offer before the listing is placed in the Austin MLS, a buyer can benefit from being in the right place at the right time and beat others to the listing.

The seller benefits by avoiding the full MLS marketing process and the disruptions that showings cause. At home workers, or stay at home Moms with small children really value this. Instead of a potential 1, 2 or 3+ months of keeping the dishes washed, the beds made, the house clean, and being ready to depart the home with 1 hour notice, the seller can relax and be happy with the quick sale.

The downside for a seller could be that the market may have set a higher price if competitive bids had been received from multiple buyers. But, as listing agents, we know that even a hot property is restricted by the potential appraisal value that the buyer’s lender will use to grant the loan. So when a seller can achieve a purchase price at or close to the list price (market value per market analysis), it’s almost always going to be wise to go with it rather than roll the dice on holding out for a higher price.

When you’re ready to list your home, ask your listing agent about a “Coming Soon” sign to be used in the time frame leading up to the house going live in the MLS. Maybe you’ll get lucky and have an quick offer and avoid the full effort.

I’ve always been a night owl. My first late night job was in high school, mopping up and taking out the trash part time at a restaurant after closing at 11PM. After high school, not taking well to college right away, I worked second shift 3:30PM to midnight at a factory in San Diego for 18 months. This resulted in countless all-nighters, though I did, unbelievably, maintain perfect attendance without one single late or sick day.

It was a Japanese-owned factory, and perfect attendance each month was rewarded with a $5 bonus and the designation of “Honor Employee”. I liked my $5 bonus the first of each month ($4.34 after taxes), and I liked the way my manager bowed in thanks when presenting the bonus check and saying to me in broken english “You are Honor Employee. We appreciate you”.

To this day, I can’t believe that a wild young, irresponsible, unreliable 18-19 year old like me could be tamed and made 100% punctual by the desire to receive that simple ritual affirmation and a few extra dollars each month. But if you’ve never been bowed to in ritual and honored by an oriental boss, and told you are appreciated in front of all your co-workers, it’s intoxicating. It’s addicting. And it made me feel entirely worthy and valued when everything else in my college-droppout-beer-drinking life indicated otherwise.

So I made sure I was on time every day and didn’t miss work. I think my lifelong work ethic can be attributed to the punctuality habits caused by that $5 bonus and the seemingly trivial yet potent acknowledgment of appreciation each month.

After moving to Texas, I worked in a restaurant in Corpus Christi while attending restaurant management college for 2 years. Again, the 4PM to midnight shift with a little partying afterward, then homework, then to class by 8AM after a few hours sleep. Later, as a restaurant manager for Dominos for about 4 years in Austin during the 1980s, there were regular “closing shifts”, leaving the pizza shop at 3AM, often after opening that morning at 10:30AM, thus working what we called the “Rambo” shift, which was a 17 hour mega-shift. I even had an inspirational movie poster of Rambo on the back office wall. I’d do 4 or 5 of those Rambo shifts a month, getting in 70 or 80 hours a week, and very little sleep.

So I got habituated into becoming a person who can stay up late and work long hours with little rest. A night owl. I can do all nighters at the drop of a hat. It’s no big deal. When my daughter needs to be picked up and brought home from a friend’s house at midnight on a Friday or Saturday, it’s no problem. I’m up anyway.

This Night Owl attribute has been a valuable asset and an incredible productivity advantage. My most productive time of day has long been 11PM to 2AM. I get more done in those three hours than I can in a full 8 hour “business” day. I’m not kidding. I love 11PM-2AM.

From 11PM-2AM, the phone doesn’t ring, the kids don’t need attention, I can concentrate without interruption. It’s dark outside. I like the dark stillness of the night. I’ve written the majority of my 500+ blog articles over the past 4+ years between 11PM and 2AM. I usually save and proof read them the next day, but the bulk of writing gets done late at night. Most of my accounting, paperwork and research gets done during 11PM-2AM. I can think straight and clearly during my 11-2. I need my 11-2 shift.

No Longer a Night Owl?
So imagine the distress I’m feeling at the current prospect of losing this late night stamina. I don’t know if it’s because I’m getting older (almost 47), but with ever increasing frequency, I’m too tired to stay up late and work. My late night mojo is fading. Shamefully, I even fell asleep on the couch during the recent Saints-Vikings playoff game. Sorry Brett. If I’d been up cheering you on, you might not have thrown that stupid interception that cost you the game. I’ve also failed to make it through the 10-o’clock news or Nightline on multiple occasions. Often when I do remain up, I’m not as sharp as I use to be. I feel sluggish and tired. I don’t drink, smoke, do drugs or have any lifestyle changes to which I can attribute this change in energy.

What’s going on here? I feel like I might be losing my super-power. My secret weapon. If this progresses, I don’t know when I’ll catch up on emails, run CMAs, enter listings into the MLS, update the website, straighten out files, knock out Sylvia’s todo lists. I have a physical next week so I’ll be discussing this with my doctor.

Meanwhile, I’m wondering what my options would be if my circadian rhythm is shifting and my 11-2 is taken away. I’ve tried a midday nap a few times, but it wipes me out for the rest of the day, rendering me listless and dimwitted, both unpleasant and unprofitable attributes. And so now I wonder if it’s possible to cross over to the other side.

Can a night owl become an early bird?

The advantages of getting up early would be same. But to get my 3 hours in, it would have to be 4AM to 7AM. That doesn’t sound good to me. Not sure I can do that. I’ve tried to get up at 6:30AM the past few days, instead of my regular 7AM. My mind says “get up” but my body cries uncle and I succumb to the snooze button.

How do you early birds do it? I know there are those of you out there up at 4:30AM, catching up on emails and other stuff before the day intrudes on productivity. Enjoying the same peace and solitude that I experience during my 11PM-2AM window. I imagine I would enjoy being an early riser as much as I have enjoyed being a night owl. But even when I turn in at 9PM, I am 100% unprepared to rise early the next morning. And I feel more fatigued than if I had slept my usual 5 or 6 hours.

Of greatest concern, can I still be a great Realtor if I’m forced to, god forbid, be administratively productive in the daytime? Daytime is for working with clients, attending inspections, showing properties, shuttling the kids, networking, returning calls and handling deal related communications. Being where I’m needed and doing the urgent and important tasks of the day. Not for office work.

I’d like to hear any tips from early birds. Especially if you’re a converted Night Owl. Is there hope?

The 2009 Austin real estate market saw most MLS Area sales stats decline somewhat. In fact, 2008 was a stronger year than 2009 on most metrics, though 2009 overall is not what anyone would term a “bad” year for Austin real estate, especially when compared to other U.S. real estate markets. Here is a summary of the breakdown:

Of the 50 Austin MLS areas tracked in the report below, 10 experienced an increase in average sold price. That’s only 20% of MLS areas enjoying a price increase compared to 64% of the Austin MLS areas with rising average prices in 2008.

Of the 50 Austin MLS areas tracked, 11 experienced an increase in median sold price. That’s 22% for 2009 compared to 60% of the Austin MLS areas with rising median sold prices in 2008.

Of the 50 Austin MLS areas tracked, only one (area 5E) experienced an increase in average sold price per square foot. That’s only 2% compared to 55% of the Austin MLS areas with rising sold prices per square foot in 2008.

Of the 50 Austin MLS areas tracked, NONE experienced an increase in ALL THREE of the above metrics – average, median and per sqft sold prices. That’s 0% for 2009 compared to 40% of the Austin MLS areas with rising metrics in the main three performance measurements for 2008.

Check the chart below to see how your area did.

Austin MLS map

The Austin real estate market ended 2009 on an up note, with both average and median sold prices up more than 5% over Dec 2008. Oh, but wait … December 2008 was a dismal month because we all still thought the financial world was falling off a cliff. But the stats are what they are so let’s have a look.

Number of homes sold is down 4.39% from a year ago, which is a small decrease compared to the numbers we were seeing earlier this year. Average list price is up 3.71% to $276,387, Median List Price is up 5.22% to $199,900, Average sold price is up 5.15%, Median  sold is up 5.39%, the Sold/List % is up 1.39% to 95.54%. And Average Price per Square Foot of sold homes is also up, by 1.11%, to $115.36.

Average Days on Market was up about 4% to 82 days, but Median Days on Market was down 14% to 48 days. The number of Not Sold was down also, though at 56% still a big number, but that’s normal for December when lots of sellers give up for the holidays.

Here is the chart showing Nov/Dec 2009 and Dec 2008 sales stats.

So, that’s a bunch of numbers, but what does it all mean? Is the Austin real estate market rebounding from the slight decline of 2009? I think it is. 2010 will be better than 2009 for sellers. Buyers will still find plenty of good opportunities though.

Sylvia and I feel it. We’re busy. I just put a listing under contract before it even made it into MLS, off the sign calls. Buyer calls are increasing. Sylvia held an open house today and had over 10 groups come through a $577K listing, and most were actual, active lookers. The number of qualified investors has shrunk considerably due to (appropriate) lending restrictions being imposed that make it more difficult for financially incapable people to purchase rental property. Good. That’s how it should be.

Let’s have a look at the Austin Year End 2009 compared to 2008 full year comparison.

The above represents the final report card on the Austin real estate market for 2009. I must say it’s about what we thought it would be at the beginning of the year. I figured we’d be down 3% on sold values and we ended up at -2.4%. Median values are down just 1%, and the volume sold is down just 6.5%. Homes are taking a bit longer to sell, overall, but the Expired/Withdrawn listings are even down a hair to 44% compared to 45% in 2008.

What will 2010 look like? I predict it will look similar to 2009, but up a bit, 1% to 3% in overall sold prices. Builders will slowly start getting braver and building more spec homes. The upper end market will continue to strengthen. Much will depend on our jobs market. We’re still at 6.9% unemployment in Austin, which is a lot better than the 10%+ national figure, but if we start seeing job growth in the second half of the year, I think we’ll build up momentum that will carry over into 2011 and make 2011 a year in which we might see 3% to 5%+ appreciation again, which is the historic average for Austin and for Texas.

The other wild card will be interest rates. Oddly, when they start rising, and they will in 2010, and buyers start really believing that the 5% train has left the station for good, they will start running to jump on board. Thusly, rising interest rates will at first cause an increase in buyer activity, hopefully this summer. 6% will become the new “good” rate but if interest rates climb above 6%, I think buyers will slow down again as they’ll need time to get use to 6 or 7 percent home loans becoming the norm again, and fretting that the Austin fallout in prices they were waiting for never happened.

Funny. I think anything under 8% is a good interest rate. I’m still paying that on two rental properties. Anyone under 30 years of age is an “interest rate crybaby” because they’ve grown up rarely seeing interest rates above 6% and think they deserve 5%. I’ve closed a number of buyers in 2009 with interest rates in the mid to upper 4% range. That’s really hard to believe. Sometimes buyers fret over not locking at 4.875% after it rises back to, brace yourself… 4.95%. God help us if interest rates go back above 7%. Some will equate that to $5/gallon gas, no doubt, and think the world has come to an end.

Next, let’s have a look at the price ranges of homes sold in Dec 2009 and the expected absorbtion rate of current inventory.

Given that the median sold price in Austin for Dec 2009 was right at $200K, then half of all homes sold fell into the first two price ranges of “$149,999 and Under” and “$150,000-$199,999″. Both of those price ranges have right at 4 month’s inventory, which is a Seller’s Market. 6 month’s inventory is a balanced market. So more than half of Austin seller’s are enjoying a seller’s market at present. And on up to list prices of about $550K, the market isn’t exactly terrible for sellers in terms of inventory level.

But the winners and losers in this sort of market are really determined by property condition, presentation and marketing. I continue to see many, many homes not properly prepared for market. And I wonder why the listing agent is even contacting me for feedback, as the problems in many of these homes are obvious. It’s hard to remain cordial in some cases. Call for feedback when you have more than 3 crappy photos in your MLS listing and the seller hires a maid. Come on. Some of these listings are embarrassing, Austin Realtors. Get with the program. And these sellers and listing agents are stupidly missing out on prospective buyers who are out looking right now, today, by being lazy and unprepared. Preparing homes for sale seems to be a lot like losing weight. Most people know what needs to happen – there is no secret – but most also fail to follow the simple steps needed to succeed. Thus all the poorly prepared listings currently on the market in Austin and the high percentage of Expired/Withdrawn listings.

Finally, let’s have a graphical look at the Austin real estate market over the past 11 years, which shows the upward trend at a glance. The reality is that 2009 wound up with the second highest average sold price in Austin, ever, beaten only by 2007. And 2009 tied for the highest ever median sold price, again with 2007. Not a bad year when viewed in the proper context of steady, long term appreciation.

My next blog article will be the Austin MLS Area sales breakdown comparison, which will show us which areas in Austin held up well in 2009 and which ones took it on the chin. Preliminary numbers are interesting, as it looks like there will be no strong performing MLS areas for 2009. By that I mean that of the three main metrics we track for price strength, Average, Median and Per SQFT sold prices, not a single MLS area was up in all three of those metrics for 2009. Stay tuned, and I’ll post all those stats after I’m finished evaluating them.

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