The Atlantic Politics Channel

A Thumbnail Guide To Some Top Republican Targets In 2010

2009-11-20T16:34:50Z

The motion of the ocean aside, here's a quick guide to some Democratic House members that Republicans believe are genuinely vulnerable in a year when President Obama isn't on the ballot. (Note: isn't it interesting how this formulation admits that, were Obama to be on the ballot, some of these folks wouldn't be as vulnerable?) Even though the NRCC hasn't recruited challengers in all of these districts, they've begun to target the incumbents in radio ads and through auto-dial calls in an effort to both test how vulnerable these Democrats are and begin to soften them up if they aren't. There are potentially vulnerable Dems not on this list, but I'm sticking to the races where the GOP has spent the most money (on TV, on polling, on recruitment) so far.

Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) -- Voted no on health care (she was leaning towards voting "yes"), yes for the stimulus package, voted yes on cap-and-trade (though it shouldn't matter much in her district, which spans suburban Orlando and Brevard County). She has two declared GOP challengers so far, but has managed to outraise both of them. Her perch on the House Financial Services Committee helps her bring $$ to the district.

Alan Grayson (FL-08) -- He represents Orlando, and he's a target because of his outspokesness on health care and other issues. He's also independently wealthy, and has so far scared away Republican challengers. His Netroots popularity means a steady source of support and money should he scare one in to the race.

Eric Massa (NY-29) -- Won by two points in a district where McCain won by 10; GOPers are counting on new conservative energy upstate; voted against health care and cap-and-trade but for the stimulus. Massa's victory in '08 is generally attributed as much to his opponents' baggage, which means he is uniquely preyable if GOPers can find a good recruit, like they might have in Monroe County exec. Maggie Brooks, who is moderate, or Assemblyman Brian Korb. Redistricting concerns may determine which GOPer runs. The jobs picture will determine who wins. Other New Yorkers targets for the NRCC: Scott Murphy (won a special election by a tiny margin; voted against health care, but the GOP needs a good recruit) Mike McMahon (voted for cap-and-trade; McCain won his district by a few points), Mike Arcuri (a sophomore, he voted for health reform and won in '08 by only 10k votes)

Tom Perriello (VA-05) -- Voted for the health care bill and the stimulus package, for cap-and-trade; won his district by a fraction of a point, thanks to Obama Surge turnout in Charlottesville. His votes make him vulnerable, but Democrats, impressed by his loyalty, are going to do everything they can to help him.

Glenn Nye (VA-02) -- Voted against health care and cap-and-trade, he flipped the seat blue in 2008 thanks to help from Obama Surge voters. His conservative coastal district went heavily for Republicans in the 2009 off-year elections, which is one of the reasons why Nye has played his cards so carefully. Nye also faces guff from liberal Democrats, who don't like his ideological apostasy.

Larry Kissel (NC-08) -- Obama won the seat by a safe margin, and Kissel won by 11 points, and Republicans didn't get the former occupant of the seat, ex-Rep. Robin Hayes, to run again, but they've got their sights on Kissel nonetheless. Kissel voted NO on health care and cap-and-trade.

Mark Schauer (MI-07) -- Bad news for frosh Schauer: the Democrat running in a special election in his own state senate district lost badly. Schauer defeated ex-Rep. Tim Walberg by a few points in '08, and Walberg wants a re-match. Michigan has one of the toughest environments for Dems of all the big states.

Betsy Markey (CO-04) -- An Obama Surge candidate who bested liberal bugbear Marilyn Musgrave in '08, McCain nonetheless won her district by a point. Markey voted against health care reform, which could dampen her base, and she has already attracted a Republican considered to be a top quality candidate: State Rep. Cory Gardner.

Harry Teague (NM-02) -- He flipped a GOP district by 12 points; McCain took the presidential. He voted against health care but for cap-and-trade -- and that's become a big issue. Environmentalists will spend time and money to save his seat. Ex-Rep. Steve Pearce is gunning for the re-match and has raised more money to date.

Vic Snyder (AR-02) -- He bit the bullet and is supporting health care reform, which has lead Republicans. The Fix's Chris Cillizza calls Snyder's "yes" vote one of the toughest anyone in Congress had to make, which means that Democrats will go out of their way to help him. His likely GOP opponent is a familiar name to DC insiders: ex-U.S. Attorney and Bush-Cheney stalwart Timothy Griffin.

Frank Kratovil (MD-01) He won his seat by a threadbare margin - McCain won here by 19 points. His 2008 challenger, State Sen. Andy Harris, has spent the past eight months preparing for a rematch. Harris is a conservative favorite: he beat long-time iconoclast Wayne Gilchrist is the '08 GOP primary. The district encompasses Maryland's Eastern shore, and Kratovil benefited from larger than usual African American turnout in 2010 and Harris was hurt by dampened enthusiasm among Republicans. Note: Harris might face a primary challenge, which could complicate things for the GOP. Correction: I initially wrote that Kratovil voted against cap-and-trade. Not true. He voted for it. I relied on a newspaper's outdated list.

Collin Peterson (MN-07) -- On the face of it, Collin Peterson doesn't have to be afraid of his district, having lambasted his opponent by 45 points in a district where John McCain only won by 3 points. He's the chair of the House Ag Committee and has fashioned himself a bit of a policy entrepreneur to boot, which means he's a powerful ally for interests in his district to have, and Republicans have been unable to recruit a top quality challenger. Heath Shuler (D-NC) - the chairman of the NRCC's recruiting division, Rep. Kevin McCarthy, admits that the former Redskins QB is "not the easiest one to beat." But that hasn't stopped the NRCC from trying - there are at least three GOPers who have expressed an interest in trying to bring back this Henderson County-based district to the Republicans.

More Signs Of Tea Party Campaigning In 2010: The Liberty First PAC

2009-11-10T21:10:04Z

Glenn Beck has put together a candidate pledge and hinted at something big (an organizing effort) for the 2010 elections; Freedom Works is looking to mobilize conservative activists in multiple states. And now there is word, from TPM, that conservative organizer/strategist Eric Odom is unveiling a new political action committee--his Liberty First PAC.

Odom leads one of the groups originally responsible for facilitating the tea party movement, the American Liberty Alliance, which promoted the tea parties and helped tea partiers network, along with Freedom Works and Americans for Prosperity. Odom was behind the #dontgo movement last year, which promoted House Republicans' protests of Democratic energy policies from the House floor during Congress's August recess.
Odom told TPM that the goal will be to raise $1 million to defeat incumbent lawmakers who supported Democratic health care reforms.

While conservative activism has been generating a lot of buzz this year, it has, so far, lacked organized means to translate that buzz into money. There may be a lot of grassroots conservatives out there, but, unless they donate their money to the Club for Growth, or to candidates themselves, they're more valuable as foot soldiers than anything else.

With a PAC--which, essentially, is a body that raises money and donates it to chosen candidates--the Tea Party movement might be able to put some money behind its candidates, as well.

Health Reform "Heavy on Health and Light on Reform"

2009-11-10T21:09:39Z

Democrats are now accusing the White House of tolerating a bill that is all health subsidies and no cost reform. Unfortunately, I think they're right about the bill. But this is strange accusation. The White House isn't writing this legislation. It's setting guidelines. House and Senate Democrats are angry about the failure of bills written by the House and Senate Democrats. It's a bit like having your mother tell you to clean your room, then coming home from school to see your room isn't clean, and accusing your mother of tolerating a dirty room.

I like Rahm Emanuel's line a lot:

"Let's be honest," Rahm Emanuel said in a recent interview. "The goal isn't to see whether I can pass this through the executive board of the Brookings Institution. I'm passing it through the United States Congress with people who represent constituents."

Let's consider Medicare reimbursement rates as an example. A "robust" public option that tied reimbursement rates to Medicare would really help bring down medical costs for enrolled families. But that's out of the question politically, because rural doctors think they're paid less than urban doctors for similar procedures within Medicare already, and rural electeds will say, "No way are you building universal insurance on the back of my constituent doctors."

Thing is, the real "game changers" are inherently speculative, but many of them are in the Senate Finance bill -- an independent Medicare commission, an Innovation Center, pilot programs, comparative research investment, electronic records. Democrats understand how hard it will be to make cuts to Medicare. They understand constituent demands put a straitjacket on cost control mechanisms. What exactly do they want, or think they can achieve?

Crist's Aides, At Least, Knew Obama Was In Town

2009-11-10T20:25:55Z

When President Obama traveled to Florida in late October, Gov. Charlie Crist (R) didn't appear with him--which made sense, given that he faced a primary challenge from the right, the main strategy of which was to accuse him of being too supportive of the president's stimulus package. But he actually went so far as to tell reporters that he didn't know Obama was going to be in the state.
Now, St. Petersburg Times politics blog The Buzz reports that aides to Crist were notified of Obama's trip. The Buzz obtained an email notification circulated to several recipients, plus a response from the assistant to Crist and his chief of staff, explaining that "Unfortunately, the Governor will be unable to attend" an event with the president at the Naval Air Station in Jacksonville, where Obama delivered some public remarks.

It's pretty hard to believe a sitting governor actually didn't know that the president was in his home state--especially when Crist's assistant RSVPed for him. Then again, barring further empirical confirmation, I guess he gets the benefit of the doubt...

If your opponent was using this site to raise money against you, you'd probably want to be far away from the president too--physically and mentally.

The Best Speech Obama's Given Since...Maybe Ever

2009-11-10T20:07:37Z

Today, at Ft. Hood. I guarantee: they'll be teaching this one in rhetoric classes. It was that good. My gloss won't do it justice. Yes, I'm having a Chris Matthews-chill-running-up-my-leg moment, but sometimes, the man, the moment and the words come together and meet the challenge. Obama had to lead a nation's grieving; he had to try and address the thorny issues of Islam and terrorism; to be firm; to express the spirit of America, using familiar, comforting tropes in a way that didn't sound trite. An excerpt from the elegiac address, below, and the full text, after the jump.

It may be hard to comprehend the twisted logic that led to this tragedy. But this much we do know - no faith justifies these murderous and craven acts; no just and loving God looks upon them with favor. And for what he has done, we know that the killer will be met with justice - in this world, and the next.
These are trying times for our country. In Afghanistan and Pakistan, the same extremists who killed nearly 3,000 Americans continue to endanger America, our allies, and innocent Afghans and Pakistanis. In Iraq, we are working to bring a war to a successful end, as there are still those who would deny the Iraqi people the future that Americans and Iraqis have sacrificed so much for.

As we face these challenges, the stories of those at Fort Hood reaffirm the core values that we are fighting for, and the strength that we must draw upon. Theirs are tales of American men and women answering an extraordinary call - the call to serve their comrades, their communities, and their country. In an age of selfishness, they embody responsibility. In an era of division, they call upon us to come together. In a time of cynicism, they remind us of who we are as Americans.

We are a nation that endures because of the courage of those who defend it. We saw that valor in those who braved bullets here at Fort Hood, just as surely as we see it in those who signed up knowing that they would serve in harm's way.

We are a nation of laws whose commitment to justice is so enduring that we would treat a gunman and give him due process, just as surely as we will see that he pays for his crimes

We are a nation that guarantees the freedom to worship as one chooses. And instead of claiming God for our side, we remember Lincoln's words, and always pray to be on the side of God.

Remarks of President Barack Obama - As Prepared for Delivery

Memorial Service at Fort Hood

November 10, 2009

We come together filled with sorrow for the thirteen Americans that we have lost; with gratitude for the lives that they led; and with a determination to honor them through the work we carry on.

This is a time of war. And yet these Americans did not die on a foreign field of battle. They were killed here, on American soil, in the heart of this great American community. It is this fact that makes the tragedy even more painful and even more incomprehensible.

For those families who have lost a loved one, no words can fill the void that has been left. We knew these men and women as soldiers and caregivers. You knew them as mothers and fathers; sons and daughters; sisters and brothers.

But here is what you must also know: your loved ones endure through the life of our nation. Their memory will be honored in the places they lived and by the people they touched. Their life's work is our security, and the freedom that we too often take for granted. Every evening that the sun sets on a tranquil town; every dawn that a flag is unfurled; every moment that an American enjoys life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness - that is their legacy.

Neither this country - nor the values that we were founded upon - could exist without men and women like these thirteen Americans. And that is why we must pay tribute to their stories.

Chief Warrant Officer Michael Cahill had served in the National Guard and worked as a physician's assistant for decades. A husband and father of three, he was so committed to his patients that on the day he died, he was back at work just weeks after having a heart attack.

Major Libardo Eduardo Caraveo spoke little English when he came to America as a teenager. But he put himself through college, earned a PhD, and was helping combat units cope with the stress of deployment. He is survived by his wife, sons and step-daughters.

Staff Sergeant Justin DeCrow joined the Army right after high school, married his high school sweetheart, and had served as a light wheeled mechanic and Satellite Communications Operator. He was known as an optimist, a mentor, and a loving husband and father.

After retiring from the Army as a Major, John Gaffaney cared for society's most vulnerable during two decades as a psychiatric nurse. He spent three years trying to return to active duty in this time of war, and he was preparing to deploy to Iraq as a Captain. He leaves behind a wife and son.

Specialist Frederick Greene was a Tennessean who wanted to join the Army for a long time, and did so in 2008 with the support of his family. As a combat engineer he was a natural leader, and he is survived by his wife and two daughters.

Specialist Jason Hunt was also recently married, with three children to care for. He joined the Army after high school. He did a tour in Iraq, and it was there that he re-enlisted for six more years on his 21^st birthday so that he could continue to serve.

Staff Sergeant Amy Krueger was an athlete in high school, joined the Army shortly after 9/11, and had since returned home to speak to students about her experience. When her mother told her she couldn't take on Osama bin Laden by herself, Amy replied: "Watch me."

Private First Class Aaron Nemelka was an Eagle Scout who just recently signed up to do one of the most dangerous jobs in the service - diffuse bombs - so that he could help save lives. He was proudly carrying on a tradition of military service that runs deep within his family.

Private First Class Michael Pearson loved his family and loved his music, and his goal was to be a music teacher. He excelled at playing the guitar, and could create songs on the spot and show others how to play. He joined the military a year ago, and was preparing for his first deployment.

Captain Russell Seager worked as a nurse for the VA, helping veterans with Post-Traumatic Stress. He had great respect for the military, and signed up to serve so that he could help soldiers cope with the stress of combat and return to civilian life. He leaves behind a wife and son.

Private Francheska Velez, the daughter of a father from Colombia and a Puerto Rican mother, had recently served in Korea and in Iraq, and was pursuing a career in the Army. When she was killed, she was pregnant with her first child, and was excited about becoming a mother.

Lieutenant Colonel Juanita Warman was the daughter and granddaughter of Army veterans. She was a single mother who put herself through college and graduate school, and served as a nurse practitioner while raising her two daughters. She also left behind a loving husband.

Private First Class Kham Xiong came to America from Thailand as a small child. He was a husband and father who followed his brother into the military because his family had a strong history of service. He was preparing for his first deployment to Afghanistan.

These men and women came from all parts of the country. Some had long careers in the military. Some had signed up to serve in the shadow of 9/11. Some had known intense combat in Iraq and Afghanistan, and some cared for those did. Their lives speak to the strength, the dignity and the decency of those who serve, and that is how they will be remembered.

That same spirit is embodied in the community here at Fort Hood, and in the many wounded who are still recovering. In those terrible minutes during the attack, soldiers made makeshift tourniquets out of their clothes. They braved gunfire to reach the wounded, and ferried them to safety in the backs of cars and a pick-up truck.

One young soldier, Amber Bahr, was so intent on helping others that she did not realize for some time that she, herself, had been shot in the back. Two police officers - Mark Todd and Kim Munley - saved countless lives by risking their own. One medic - Francisco de la Serna - treated both Officer Munley and the gunman who shot her.

It may be hard to comprehend the twisted logic that led to this tragedy. But this much we do know - no faith justifies these murderous and craven acts; no just and loving God looks upon them with favor. And for what he has done, we know that the killer will be met with justice - in this world, and the next.

These are trying times for our country. In Afghanistan and Pakistan, the same extremists who killed nearly 3,000 Americans continue to endanger America, our allies, and innocent Afghans and Pakistanis. In Iraq, we are working to bring a war to a successful end, as there are still those who would deny the Iraqi people the future that Americans and Iraqis have sacrificed so much for.

As we face these challenges, the stories of those at Fort Hood reaffirm the core values that we are fighting for, and the strength that we must draw upon. Theirs are tales of American men and women answering an extraordinary call - the call to serve their comrades, their communities, and their country. In an age of selfishness, they embody responsibility. In an era of division, they call upon us to come together. In a time of cynicism, they remind us of who we are as Americans.

We are a nation that endures because of the courage of those who defend it. We saw that valor in those who braved bullets here at Fort Hood, just as surely as we see it in those who signed up knowing that they would serve in harm's way.

We are a nation of laws whose commitment to justice is so enduring that we would treat a gunman and give him due process, just as surely as we will see that he pays for his crimes.

We are a nation that guarantees the freedom to worship as one chooses. And instead of claiming God for our side, we remember Lincoln's words, and always pray to be on the side of God.

We are a nation that is dedicated to the proposition that all men and women are created equal. We live that truth within our military, and see it in the varied backgrounds of those we lay to rest today. We defend that truth at home and abroad, and we know that Americans will always be found on the side of liberty and equality. That is who we are as a people.

Tomorrow is Veterans Day. It is a chance to pause, and to pay tribute - for students to learn of the struggles that preceded them; for families to honor the service of parents and grandparents; for citizens to reflect upon the sacrifices that have been made in pursuit of a more perfect union.

For history is filled with heroes. You may remember the stories of a grandfather who marched across Europe; an uncle who fought in Vietnam; a sister who served in the Gulf. But as we honor the many generations who have served, I think all of us - every single American - must acknowledge that this generation has more than proved itself the equal of those who have come before.

We need not look to the past for greatness, because it is before our very eyes.

This generation of soldiers, sailors, airmen, Marines and Coast Guardsmen have volunteered in a time of certain danger. They are part of the finest fighting force that the world has ever known. They have served tour after tour of duty in distant, different and difficult places. They have stood watch in blinding deserts and on snowy mountains. They have extended the opportunity of self-government to peoples that have suffered tyranny and war. They are man and woman; white, black, and brown; of all faiths and stations - all Americans, serving together to protect our people, while giving others half a world away the chance to lead a better life.

In today's wars, there is not always a simple ceremony that signals our troops' success - no surrender papers to be signed, or capital to be claimed. But the measure of their impact is no less great - in a world of threats that no know borders, it will be marked in the safety of our cities and towns, and the security and opportunity that is extended abroad. And it will serve as testimony to the character of those who serve, and the example that you set for America and for the world.

Here, at Fort Hood, we pay tribute to thirteen men and women who were not able to escape the horror of war, even in the comfort of home. Later today, at Fort Lewis, one community will gather to remember so many in one Stryker Brigade who have fallen in Afghanistan.

Long after they are laid to rest - when the fighting has finished, and our nation has endured; when today's servicemen and women are veterans, and their children have grown - it will be said of this generation that they believed under the most trying of tests; that they persevered not just when it was easy, but when it was hard; and that they paid the price and bore the burden to secure this nation, and stood up for the values that live in the hearts of all free peoples.

So we say goodbye to those who now belong to eternity. We press ahead in pursuit of the peace that guided their service. May God bless the memory of those we lost. And may God bless the United States of America.

Brazil To "60 Minutes": It Wasn't A Hacker

2009-11-10T19:22:22Z

Brazilian officials are disputing the claim by "60 Minutes" and others that a blackout in 2007 was caused by computer hackers. Wired magazine's blog Threat Level, citing government and investigative sources, reports that the outage "was actually the result of a utility company's negligent maintenance of high voltage insulators on two transmission lines." Insulators hang from power lines and are prone to collect debris, which can cause power surges. In this case, officials say soot from nearby fires collected on the insulators.
Threat Level, which has long been skeptical of some of the more extraordinary claims by U.S. officials about cyber threats to critical infrastructure, spoke to the utility company involved in the blackout and got a denial of any hacker involvement. The company "has no knowledge of hackers acting in [the] power transmission system," TL reported.

News of the "60 Minutes" piece hit the wires on Saturday, and over the weekend, Brazilian government officials started batting down the story. A senior homeland security official in Brazil told newspaper Folha de S. Paulo that he had investigated the allegations of a hacker causing the blackout and found no traces.

The official told the newspaper that "there is always the possibility" that a hacker could take over a power substation, but because the companies affected didn't have their systems directly connected to the Internet, it would have been very difficult for a hacker to penetrate their internal network.

However, the same official, in an earlier interview, confirmed that a hacker based in an Eastern European country accessed a server connected to a Brazilian ministry in 2008. The intruder locked officials out by changing the password, and then demanded $350 million to release the system. No one paid the ransom, the official said.

According to the Brazilian press, the power company denied any knowledge of hackers in their system in 2007, and national power authorities attributed the blackout to a "weather phenomenon" and pollution buildup on the insulators. Brazil's electrical regulatory agency ended up fining the power company $3.27 million, Threat Level reported.

TL actually beat "60 Minutes" with the news that security experts think computer hacking caused the Brazilian blackouts. In an interview, former White House cyber security chief Richard Clarke said, "We can look forward to the kind of things happening here that happened to Brazil, where hackers successfully brought down the power." The TL reporter noted that "Clarke is referring to veiled reports made last year by the CIA's chief cybersecurity officer, Tom Donahue, that extortionists had taken down the power grid in multiple regions outside the United States. The location of those outages has never been publicly identified."

In an email sent to me yesterday, TL's Ryan Singel criticized "60 Minutes" and other media for not reporting the Brazilian government's non-cyber explanation for the blackout. I asked the reporter who interviewed Clarke whether she had followed up on his claims when he made them. I still haven't received a response, but I'll update that here if I do. The piece ran on October 28.

The "60 Minutes" piece featured extensive quotes from Jim Lewis at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which produced a lengthy report on cyber security for the Obama administration. I asked Lewis what he thought of the Brazilian claims. "I can see why the Brazilians would deny this," he said. "Their government may not even know. But this happened whether they admit [it] or not."

Lewis and Clarke aren't the only ones to attribute the blackout to cyber hackers. In 2007, a senior Defense Department official also said in a little noticed speech, "Not long ago there was an attack on Brazil's power grid, the SCADA network, which caused major disruptions." SCADA, which stands for supervisory control and data acquisition, refers to the devices that control electricity generation systems.

Clyburn: Abortion Provision Only Got Us Ten Votes

2009-11-10T18:42:58Z

It's common knowledge that House Democrats couldn't pass their health reform package without the addition of a provision on abortion--offered by Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI)--but what's less certain is how many votes that provision gained for the bill. Some have speculated that it earned 40 votes to put the bill over the 218 mark, the number needed for passage. But House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-SC) says it was far fewer--that the compromise over abortion only yielded 10 additional votes.

"It was not 40 votes that we were trying to get with this amendment, it was 10 votes, and that's the fact," Clyburn said today on MSNBC, during an interview with Andrea Mitchell. "This language took us across the threshold of 218, but it was 10 people, it wasn't 40 people as has been reported...
"Without that language, we were around 212, 214," Clyburn said,

Stupak's abortion language is an extremely controversial one for pro-choice Democrats, as it prevents private health insurers participating in an exchange--a forum for individuals to shop for health insurance--from covering abortion, as well as preventing abortion from being covered under plans purchased with the help of government subsidies.

Critics say this would create a class divide, with wealthy women who don't need subsidies (or an exchange) able to get abortions, while poor and working-class women would have to pay out of pocket. 40 pro-choice Democrats, led by Rep. Diana DeGette (D-CO) have signed a letter to Speaker Nancy Pelosi pledging they will vote "no" on the final package if it contains the provision.

But, with a two-vote cushion (the bill passed with 220 votes), a 10-vote gap appears far more surmountable than a 40-vote gap--which suggests that some sort of compromise language on abortions could be worked out if/when the House bill gets merged with a Senate version by a conference committee of lawmakers from each chamber.

Really, Mark Warner. REALLY?

2009-11-10T18:15:53Z

Not to deliberately steal from the talented folks who write Update at SNL, but, really? Sen. Mark Warner said President Obama misplayed the health care debate because he didn't focus on cost containment. Really?

Well, yes, he really said that.

"I wish the president would have started the debate by explaining to the American people that our current health care system is not financially sustainable, for even another decade," Warner told the Washington Times. "Driving down health care costs should have been the focus of the debate."

This is unreality. The FIRST argument that the White House turned to about health care was about the cost of doing nothing. (It was Tom Daschle's formulation, actually, that Obama adopted during the campaign and the transition and the early part of this year.)
From December 22: ""Some may ask how at this moment of economic challenge we can afford to invest in reforming our health-care system. And I ask a different question. I ask how can we afford not to."

Progressive activists didn't like the obsessive focus on cost. And they believe that the president hemmed himself in by imposing a seemingly arbitrary $900 billion cap on costs over ten years.

The argument THEY wanted him to make--the liberal argument, if you will--is a moral argument. People are getting sick and dying because they can't afford health care in a country of plenty. But Obama subordinated that argument to focus on cost.

Whether he successfully set the frame for the debate is another question. Indeed, it has another answer: probably not. But maybe the argument isn't winnable.

Health care reform is going to be expensive; people sense this intuitively. A cost-containment argument plays well in polling, and focus groups like it, but the reality of the bill--the reality of reform that members of Congress put together--was messy and expensive. And the reality of politics is that Republicans were unlikely to support health reform as conceived of by Democrats.

Really.

Justice Department's GTMO Decision: What To Expect

2009-11-10T18:14:14Z

Ahead of a November 16 deadline, the Justice Department is readying a decision on how to bring some of Guantanamo's most infamous detainees to trial.

Officials insist that as of last night, when senior officials most recently met, Attorney General Eric Holder hadn't decided which detainees to try and where to put them on trial: either in federal courts or by the new military commission process that Congress ratified last month. Nonetheless, some clues about Justice's thinking are emerging.

ITEM: Early reports that as many as two dozen detainees would be disposed of during this first flight of announcements are false. Officials expect the announcement to focus on fewer than 20 -- perhaps as few as a dozen.ITEM: Outside analysts expect that many, if not all, of the September 11 co-conspirators -- five in total -- will discover their near-term fates. And they highly doubt that the administration will announce that it has decided to indefinitely detain any of them. Those decisions will be made later.

ITEM: There are strong indications that the administration wants to try Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the lead planner of the 9/11 attacks, in federal court. Where? That's a closely guarded secret. It could be the Southern District of New York -- in Lower Manhattan; it could be Arlington, VA; it could be Newport News, VA. Or somewhere else.

ITEM: The administration has indicated to allied civil liberties groups that it hopes to reserve the military commission process for crimes committed on the battlefield only. The interagency task force on detention policy recommended as much in its interim report to the president.

ITEM: The Justice Department's 11/16 decision won't affect the majority of detainees. The administration's self-imposed deadline to close Guantanamo by February of 2009 means that a large number of detainees will remain in limbo. Outside experts believe that most of these will be transferred to the Bagram Air Force base in Afghanistan until their trials begin. Detainees whose statuses are uncertain will not be held in the United States.

ITEM: The Department does not plan to say whether prosecutors will seek the death penalty for any of the detainees. That decision will come later -- much later -- and will involve discussions above the level of the U.S. Attorneys who are trying the case.

A white paper released by the Center for American Progress, which maintains close ties to the White House, argues that 9/11 conspirators will want to be martyered. Author Ken Gude writes: "It is in the United States' strategic interest to refrain from seeking the death penalty no matter which forum it chooses, thus denying martyrdom to the 9/11 conspirators. Military commissions remain tainted by Bush-era mistakes, and must be limited--if used at all--to battlefield crimes in order to gain a measure of legitimacy."

Gorbachev: U.S. Should Withdraw From Afghanistan

2009-11-10T17:14:30Z

Former USSR President Mikhail Gorbachev knows about ending a protracted occupation of Afghanistan--he's actually done it, implementing a withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1988 and 1989, soon after he took power. Now, as President Obama weighs the future of U.S. strategy there, he tells Bloomberg that America should do the same:

"I believe that there is no prospect of a military solution," Gorbachev said in Russian through a translator. "What we need is the reconciliation of Afghan society -- and they should be preparing the ground for withdrawal rather than additional troops."

Obama, meanwhile, is rumored to be weighing the opposite: Spencer Ackerman reported last night on the influence of special operations leaders in advising the president, noting that Vice President Joe Biden's vision for a scaled-back, counter-terrorism mission (which would not involve policing Afghanistan for Taliban forces, but rather attacking al Qaeda and other extremists along the Pakistani border) has been "cast aside," according to a National Security Council staffer.

Dick Armey Hits The Road

2009-11-10T16:40:20Z

Former House Majority Leader Dick Armey, leader of the conservative grassroots (or Astro-turf, depending on how you look at these things) organization Freedom Works, is hitting the road. His goal: to stretch the electoral map for American conservatism, and to keep up the momentum that's been generated this year behind his cause.

The New York Times Magazine recently chronicled a swing through North Carolina, and, over the next few days, Armey will be traveling to more states, meeting up with conservative activists and holding Freedom Works rallies in New York, Connecticut, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Armey spends most of his time at his 89-acre ranch north of Dallas, Texas (in today's Washington Post, Armey is quoted as he's petting a goat), but, according to a Freedom Works staffer, his travels have picked up over the past few months.

The group--and Armey--have attained some newfound power and importance this year as conservative grassroots energy has mounted. Freedom Works is one of the principle groups that helps organize the Tea Party protests, driving turnout among its own members and helping activists connect and network with other interested individuals and smaller Tea-Party organizations.

Most recently, it mobilized its members to support Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in New York's 23rd district special election; now, it's planning a ground campaign backing conservative Marco Rubio in Florida's GOP Senate primary, and another in support of Pat Toomey's (R) Senate bid in Pennsylvania, according to spokesman Adam Brandon.

With the Club for Growth pouring money and TV ads into elections to support conservative candidates, Freedom Works and the Tea Partiers have, more or less, become the conservative movement's ground game.

His upcoming travel schedule--which includes some stops well outside GOP Country--shows that his plans for the movement are somewhat ambitious.

Tonight, Armey will be in Brooklyn for a gathering of activists at Toro, an Asian fusion restaurant, at 1 Front Street. Tomorrow, he'll head to Connecticut for another gathering at the Circle Diner in Fairfield. Connecticut, Brandon says, is another state where Freedom Works could mobilize its network to play in a 2010 campaign, as Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd is considered vulnerable.

Armey will attend Freedom Works rallies on Saturday, where activists will march on the state capitols in Raleigh, North Carolina and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

The group hopes its activist network can become a major factor in campaigns across the country.

"We're very committed to proving to the nation that the Tea Party movement is much like a 50-state strategy," Brandon said.

There is momentum behind conservative activism right now, and the multitude of protests across the country on April 15--the first major day of Tea Party action--showed that 50-state involvement might not be a stretch, after all.

So that's what Armey is doing right now: going out into the states--not necessarily the Southern states that are considered viable territory for the GOP, but an expanded map that includes spots on the East Coast where Democratic incumbents are vulnerable, and, of all places, Brooklyn--and trying to solidify that momentum, with an eye toward playing in the midterm elections in 2010.

Scozzafava Out Of GOP Conference...Plus: How Dems Won Her Endorsement

2009-11-10T15:07:38Z

Republican Dede Scozzafava, who dropped out of New York's 23rd district special election amid Conservative Doug Hoffman's surge--and endorsed Democrat Bill Owens--is out of the state Assembly's GOP conference. The Albany Times Union reports that Republicans are looking for a new Leader Pro Tempore, after Scozzafava and Republican leader Brian Kolb sat down to talk.

The Washington Post, meanwhile, chronicles how Democrats won her endorsement. It began with a condolence call from Owens soon after she dropped out; then, White House Political Director Patrick Gaspard (under orders from Rahm Emanuel) orchestrated an aggressive campaign that included phone calls from New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Sen. Chuck Schumer, and Bill Clinton, plus meetings with former New York Democratic Party chairwoman June O'Neill and Rep. Steve Israel.
Hoffman, on the other hand, never called her.

It seems Hoffman had an utter falling out with Republicans after the conservative campaign against her. In the end, she tells the Post that Hoffman has "no integrity" (which actually meshes with a rather harsh criticism of Hoffman offered by National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Paul Lindsay, after Hoffman interviewed with local party leaders for the GOP nomination and before he became a conservative star).

Here's how the Post sums it up, from Hoffman's perspective:

The conservative movement's third-party candidate, Doug Hoffman, expected her support but, she said, the newcomer accountant "had no integrity." Plus, the Democrats were so nice! They called. They sympathized. They made her feel good about tossing her support to Bill Owens, who -- with her help -- became the area's first Democratic representative in more than a century.

Question Of The Day: Is Health Reform Worth It To Pro-Choicers?

2009-11-10T11:30:37Z

If you were a pro-choice Democrat in the House of Representatives, would you vote for a health care reform bill that included language to prevent private health insurance participating in an exchange, and any insurance purchased with the help of government subsidies, from covering abortions?

The Rundown, 11/10

2009-11-10T11:00:37Z

Flags around the country will fly at half-staff today, in recognition of the killings at Fort Hood, Texas, and President Obama and the First Lady will attend a memorial service at Fort Hood.

In somewhat lighter news, Senate Democrats and Republicans will hold their weekly caucus policy luncheons today at the Capitol, and it's a pretty safe bet they'll be talking about health care. Hopefully Joe Lieberman makes it out unscathed by the slings and arrows of his fellow partisans...
Senate Banking Chairman Chris Dodd (D-CT) will unveil his comprehensive financial reform bill. The House Financial Services Committee has been passing the administration's financial reform agenda piecemeal, and, as always seems to be the case these days, it was the Senate that had lagged behind (see: health care, energy). No more. If all goes well for Dodd, Democrats will get their reforms, and he'll get a campaign boost...and members of the media will finally stop mentioning, whenever his name comes up, how tough his reelection battle could be.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, will be in Singapore today to attend meetings of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum. While there, she will only be able to chew gum of therapeutic value.

And Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, meanwhile, will be in Tokyo to meet with Japanese government bigwigs to talk about economic growth.

The Invisible Primary, 11/10

2009-11-10T10:30:45Z

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Mike Huckabee says he's a "very serious" figure in the GOP; Sarah Palin's book tour will include a stop in Iowa, while Huckabee signed books there over the weekend; but Huckabee says there were no political motives behind the trip; Palin revisited her "death panels" critique of Democratic health care reform in a post on her Facebook page Saturday night; and Tim Pawlenty will be in Iowa this Saturday for an Iowa GOP fundraiser.