The economy is blooming after what the National Australia Bank said yesterday was a ''remarkable' rise in confidence, and a big positive rise in conditions in October. 

While the economy looks better than it did even a month ago, according to the NAB, a much broader base of demand is emerging.

But that continuing improvement won't be without some hiccups. 

Most notably housing where it is now saying that house prices could fall in 2010.

Insurance Australia Group is to get a new chairman in 2010, which might be just about when the insurer starts coming out of its self-induced earnings coma of the past three years.

The group's AGM was told yesterday that a fellow director, Brian Schwarz would become deputy chairman and takeover the chairmanship in 2010.

“At last year’s Annual General Meeting, I indicated the Board had agreed on the need for stability in the Chair position during the implementation of our revised strategy and changes in management and governance,” Mr Strong said.

Revenue and earnings at Fairfax Media remain under pressure, despite a small rise in activity in recent months.

Shareholders at yesterday's noisy AGM in Sydney were told (before all the action started) that while there had been a small improvement noted the first four months of the current financial year had been tough.

CEO, Brian McCarthy said :

That will be in between digging up research for Australian Wealth Gameplan and Australian Small Cap Investigator.

Of course, it won't be a proper school. There won't be any teachers, there won't be a classroom, and there definitely won't be a blackboard.

In fact, your editor will be the only student.

So, what will we study?

Well, we're aiming for a first class education in COP15.

Electrical goods importer and distributor Breville Group has upgraded its full year earnings guidance and as it starts fighting off the takeover offer from rival appliance group, GUD Holding Ltd.

Breville said yesterday its sales and earnings had exceeded expectations based on trading for the year-to-date.

"Following positive trading, Breville expects full year forecast underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA1) to be approximately $38.5 million and full year underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) to be approximately $19 million," Breville said in a statement.

I was just looking at the charts and they are beginning to look very, very bullish. The formation I show you in today’s video is a classic continuation pattern to the upside. This pattern also confirms a Fibonacci target number we are looking at.

This video is short and to the point and I think it will get you thinking about this energy market.

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. After you watch the movie, please feel free to comment on blog.

Click here to watch today's free video.

All the best,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

In this short video I show you exactly what we expect to see for RIMM in the future. I also share with you some downside targets that we are looking at which may surprise you.

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. I hope you enjoy the video and comment about it on our blog.

Click here  to watch today's free video.

All the best,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

Seven AGM, crazy Perth visit, Fairfax, Telstra, Transfield, capital raisings and much more

Dear Mayne Reporters,

Greetings from the favourite Kings Cross internet cafe where at least 30 AGM reports have been filed from over the past decade. The same proprietor is here although the internet is starting to hurt the travel element of his business, which he advertised in The Trading Post yesterday.

First up this week, it was nice to get an apology from billionaire Kerry Stokes today for his excessively combative behaviour at last year's Seven Network AGM.

The apology came privately after the meeting and it has to be said that followed what was a very cordial debate at this year's AGM.

Metals were mixed, the oil price fell 19c to $79.05 and Gold closed up $1.10 to $1102.50. Of 430 companies in the S&P 500 that reported quarterly earnings since October 7, Bloomberg say 83% of them exceeded estimates. The Aussie dollar increased to 93.05c versus 93c yesterday morning.

Making the news today…

  St Barbara (SBM) in a Trading Halt – it has announced a capital raising via an entitlement offer at 27c. Not good news for the share price which last traded at 35c. It still has a decent amount of debt it needs to repay. The share price has performed strongly though thanks to an upward moving gold price. SBM up 14.29% in the past 30 days and up 63.64% in the past quarter. Patersons maintains its Hold recommendation.

  Wesfarmers (WES) held its AGM late yesterday. Main message was that it sees significant long term benefits from Coles, domestic confidence is still fragile and Coles trading continued positively through October. It’s also pleased how the overall group has started the financial year. WES up 2.3% to 2806c.

Last week it was a $6.8 billion joint bid for Transurban, the big toll road operator, from two large Canadian pension managers that made local investors sit up and think about further takeover moves.

Yesterday a similar deal, this time in funds management (which is a form of financial infrastructure), an area that surprised analysts, with AXA Asia Pacific knocking back a joint approach from its French parent and the AMP worth some $11.2 billion.

AXA Asia Pacific said in a statement it had received the unsolicited and conditional scheme proposal from AMP and AXA SA last Saturday morning, November 7, and rejected it.

Strangely, after an early flurry, the bullish first quarter update from the Commonwealth Bank failed to keep investors very interested in the sector yesterday as the day's trading went on.

News of a cash net profit of around $1.4 billion (no comparative figures were given) boosted the shares of all major banks, but by the afternoon only the NAB had maintained the early momentum, along with the CBA.

CBA shares ended up more than 4% at $55.08, a rise of $2.37. They hit a day's high of $55.21.

Once again, the final dividend policy of a major industrial has given us a clue as to how the group sees the outlook for the coming year.

Higher dividend means confidence, no change, cautious, lower dividend, who knows what the future holds?  

With Orica yesterday it was the former.

The falls in on line and newspaper job ads for the first time in three months last month is not an end of the world occurrence, or worthy of leading TV or radio news bulletins, as the yarn did for a while yesterday.

The 1.7% drop may have been linked to the Reserve Bank's first rate rise, but that's immaterial. It's just a monthly variation in a developing trend.

Other figures out yesterday on housing finance showed the build up of a strong rise in home building activity (and employment) is well underway and will intensify in 2010.

Metals had a strong session in London and both the oil and gold price impressed. Oil put on $1.78 to $79.21 and Gold hit an all time intra day high to close at $1101.40. The Aussie dollar continued its rise to 93c compared to 92.20c yesterday morning.

Making the news today…

    * The broker research this morning says although a rival bid is unlikely, there is a good chance AMP Ltd(AMP) will lift its bid for AXA Asia Pacific(AXA). AMP up 4.08% to 637c and AXA up another 2.81% to add to the 30% it put on yesterday.

    * BC Iron (BCI) and JV partner Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) has secured $US50m in an off-take agreement for their Nullagine JV. The agreement, with a Hong Kong-based company, is for 20m tonnes of iron ore to be supplied during the next 8.5 years. BCI down 2.8% to 120.5c and FMG up 3.59% to 405c.

Coal hopeful, Rocklands Richfield said yesterday that a higher offer from Jindal Steel & Power of India isn’t superior to a $154 million bid from China’s Meijin Energy Group.

Rocklands had invited Jindal to revise its proposal of 50 Australian cents for each share. Meijin last week offered 52 cents a share.

Jindal's offer values Rocklands around $A194 million.