A-Investor

Buy, sell or hold?

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 11:31:00 +0000

Both Dow and HSI rebound from support trendline - good sign for more upside.

Dow surged above 14dMA on 5 Nov, and HSI surged above 14dMA on 9 Nov. High chance for they to test their recent highs - 10119 for Dow and 22620 for HSI. Currently, Dow is at 10023 and HSI is at 22207.

My strategies:

Reduce buying.
If they fail to surge above recent highs, take some profit.
If they surge above recent highs, continue to ride on this up wave (chances for them to test upper trendline).

Hang Seng

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 00:52:00 +0000

Resistance: 14dMA, 22620
Support: Lower Green trendline (and 21196), 20323
Comment: If it surges above 14dMA - more upside. If it plunges below Lower Green trendline - move down to test 20323.

Power of teamwork

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 12:51:00 +0000

A picture is worth a million words..

Allgreen Properties Ltd

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 13:35:00 +0000

Resistance: Neckline, $1.27
Support: $1.14, Green trendline
Comment: If it surges above Neckline - move up to test $1.27 (inverse head-shoulder's target at $1.33). If it plunges below $1.14 - move down to test Green trendline.

Keppel Land Limited

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 11:42:00 +0000

Resistance: Upper Red trendline, $3
Support: Green trendline, $2.50
Comment: If it surges above Upper Red trendline - move up to test $3. If it plunges below Green trendline - move down to test $2.50.

Indexes to test recent high!

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 00:23:00 +0000

Listed below are interesting points found in the articles that I have read in the past week:

For the past 14 bear markets—ranging from gold to US stocks — when markets dipped more than 40 percent, the average rally off the lows was about 72 percent. Since the Dow is up only about 45 percent and the S&P about 52 percent, the market still has a lot of room to the upside.
Dow and S&P 500 hitting their highest levels in over a year as investors extended a seven-month rally.
It's inevitable that we'll see more pullbacks, but even a bigger selloff would probably just serve to bring in more buyers. There is still enough skepticism about the rally and enough cash waiting to be invested to fuel more gains.
The Federal Reserve Chairman said Thursday night that while interest rates will stay low for a while, the Fed will have to start boosting rates as the recovery picks up, in order to fight off the threat of inflation.

Technically, both Dow and HSI shows strength to test recent high.

HSI has surged above the upper Red trendline, and is just 430 off the recent high.
Dow has closed at 9864 - the highest close since the bottom, and is just 53 off the recent high.

Dow Jones Industrial

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 13:35:00 +0000

Resistance: 9917, Blue trendline
Support: 9650, Green trendlines
Comment: If it surges above 9917 - move up to test Blue trendline. If it plunges below 9650 - move down to test Green trendlines.

Hang Seng

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 00:12:00 +0000

Resistance: 21196, Upper Red trendline
Support: Blue trendlines, 20000
Comment: If it surges above Upper Red trendline - more upside. If it plunges below Blue trendlines - more downside.

Why do we shout?

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 10:06:00 +0000

One day, a professor asked his students 'Why do we SHOUT instead of speak when we are ANGRY?' All the students thought for a while. One answered 'Because we lost our cool. That's why we SHOUT.'

Asked the professor again, 'But the person is just right next to you, why can't we talk softly but have to SHOUT?' Everyone gave their opinions but none was accepted by the professor.

Lastly explained by the professor 'When we are ANGRY, our hearts drift apart. To mask the DISTANCE we felt, we instinctively SHOUT instead of speak so the other party can hear us.'
'But as we SHOUT, we get ANGRIER. And we felt we drift apart further. So we SHOUT even louder...'

'It is the opposite when we are in love. Not only we do not shout, we whisper into each other ears. Why?'

'This is because our hearts are very close, almost never apart. As our love deepen, we reach a state of communication where there is no need for words.' 'We understand each other well enough just by exchanging look,' concluded the professor.

'Therefore, when we are arguing, DO NOT speak words that will make our hearts drift apart. WAIT a few days. When you feel your hearts are no longer far apart, pick up the conversation and continue from there.'

Hang Seng

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 23:05:00 +0000

Resistance: Upper Red trendline, 21196
Support: Blue trendline, 19161
Comment: If it surges above Upper Red trendline - move up to test 21196. If it plunges below Blue trendline - move down to test 19161.

How have indexes perform?

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 22:58:00 +0000

For your information,

Dow
Highest at 14198 on 11 Oct 2007
Lowest at 6516 on 9 Mar 2009
Current at 9280 -> 35% plunge from Highest, 42% surge from lowest

HSI
Highest at 31958 on 30 Oct 2007
Lowest at 10676 on 27 Oct 2008
Current at 19522 -> 39% plunge from Highest, 83% surge from lowest

STI
Highest at 3906 on 10 Oct 2007
Lowest at 1455 on 10 Mar 2009
Current at 2569 -> 34% plunge from Highest, 77% surge from lowest

Hang Seng

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 16:11:00 +0000

Resistance: 21196
Support: Lower Green trendline, Blue trendline
Comment: If it surges above 21196 - more upside (maybe Wave 3). If it plunges below lower Green trendline - move down to test Blue trendline.

Genting Singapore PLC

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 11:40:00 +0000

Resistance: $0.91, Upper Green trendline
Support: Red trendline, Lower Green trendline
Comment: If it surges above $0.91 - move up to test Upper Green trendline. If it plunges below Red trendline - more down to test Lower Green trendline.

Genting's potential catalysts

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 23:25:00 +0000

1. First mover advantage
Could open earlier than expected, possibly in Dec 09 / Jan 10. Overtake Marina Bay Sand (launch postponed to 1Q10 from end 09). An advantage in locking in local market share (S$2000 annual pass in lieu of S$100/entry to be paid by Singapore residents is exclusive to one casino).

2. Award of casino licence in 4Q09
It already fulfilled the basic requirements to apply for a casino licence, ie completion of >50% of gross floor area and spending >50% of committed amount. RWS has started liasing with the authorities with regards to the application process, with a final submission expected in 3Q09.

3. Announcement of exact soft opening date
Expected to reveal a concrete opening date in Sep 09.

4. Encouraging response for hotel bookings
Bookings for the four hotels (1,350 rooms in total) should be made available soon. Consumer sentiments and risk appetite have improved following more encouraging economic data globally and recent stock market rally.

5. Recovery UK casino operations

No more bear rally!

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 04:00:00 +0000

Listed below are interesting points found in the articles that I have read in the past week:

The markets have been able to break out to new highs for the year; the volumes have been reasonable; the number of stocks participating in the rally that we've seen over the last couple of weeks has been very high, in other words the breadth has been good, all is well.
Stocks stay resilient..don't be fooled by the flat Dow and S&P on Friday (24 Jul).. by all rights the disappointing results from Microsoft and Amazon should have dropped the markets more..it did end the NASDAQ win streak, but today was a victory for the bulls.
Existing home sales were up for the third month in a row in June, signaling a stabilization in the US housing market.
So far, 74 percent of the (U.S. earnings) results have come in better than expected.

Note: No more mention of bear rally!

Seem like we are in Wave 1 for HSI, and indeed S&P 500 rebound at about 870. My strategies are:

Ride the current wave, and take short term profit SLOWLY.
Buy on dips instead of waiting for any significant pullbacks.

Hang Seng

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 10:58:00 +0000

Resistance: 19161
Support: 17685
Comment: If it surges above 19161 - more upside (may turn out to be the next Wave 1). If it plunges below upper Red trendline - more downside.

Dow Jones Industrial

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 23:26:00 +0000

Resistance: Upper Red trendline, Neckline
Support: Lower Red trendline, 8000
Comment: If it surges above Upper Red trendline - move up to test Neckline. If it plunges below Lower Red trendline - more down to test 8000.

When to purchase?

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 22:59:00 +0000

Scenario
If HSI form a lower high (below 19161), and start a down wave. I will be looking at the following levels to purchase:

a. Fibonacci Retracement at 38.2% (17350)
Purchase (10% of available fund).

b. Fibonacci Retracement at 50% (16800)
Purchase (20% of available fund).

c. Fibonacci Retracement at 61.8% (16243)
Purchase (30% of available fund).

Note: The Golden Cross, when the 50-day moving average for a security crosses above the 200-day moving average, occurred to the S&P 500 on 23 Jun 2009.

No purchase plan at this stage

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 23:31:00 +0000

HSI plunged about 1506 points (8%) during this correction, and has been volatile with low volume for the past one week.

Is HSI in Wave A?
Maybe.. so there is no purchase plan due to the risk involved. I will take profit on short term shares during the next up wave.

Note: Currently, "Better Than Expected" news is no longer good enough. Market needs good news in order to move up.

Cosco Corporation Ltd

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Resistance: $1.47, Upper Green trendline
Support: $1.39, Lower Green trendline
Comment: If it surges above $1.47 - move up to test Upper Green trendline. If it plunges below $1.39 - more down to test Lower Green trendline.

5 steps to successful trading

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 07:32:00 +0000

By Doug Hirschhorn (chief executive officer of Edge Consulting)

Let's be honest, trading is not rocket science. In fact, trading succes has little to do with how smart you are. Rather, it's more about your mental process. Successful traders generally do many of the same things, regardless of which market or product they trade. Here are five steps to successful trading:

1) Establish a game plan and follow it. Many traders make the mistake of trading without a game plan. And some who have a game plan fail to execute. You must have a game plan and follow through with it.

2) Only trade when you have EDGE. Just like a hitter waits for his pitch, you have to wait for the right trade -- and make sure you have an edge.

3) Use solid risk management. You must have stops in place and, more importantly, you have to stick to those stops. When the market goes down and you hit that number, you have to say to yourself. 'I put the stop there for a reason, and just because I'm losing money is not a reason to ignore a stop.' Have the stop in place, use solid risk management, take the stop and move on to the next trade.

4) Be Resilient. You have to be able to deal with setbacks. Statistically, you're going to lose money about half the time and make money half the time in trading. In short, you'll have to deal with failure on a regular basis. And when it happens, you have to have a 'so what' attitude. That doesn't mean you don't care, you just have to realize it's not the end of the world. There's always another trade, another opportunity, around the corner.

5) Keep it Simple. The market can only go up, down or sideways at any given time. Many traders try to out think the market, but at the end of the day, you have to keep it a simple game. Keeping it simple will help you improve your trading success.

Purchase plan for Wave 5 again

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 13:03:00 +0000

Since my comment that HSI doesn't look good, it has hit a low at 17710 today, but managed to rebound to close at 18058. This down wave can be a Wave 4 or Wave A. My purchase plan will not be aggressive because there is a risk of it being a Wave A.

Scenario 1 - HSI test 17685 and rebound.
Purchase (10% of available fund).
May have already happen today, and will follow up tomorrow.

Scenario 2 - HSI pullback to Fibonacci Retracement at 50% (16712).
Purchase (10% of available fund).

Based on technical analysis, the following shares look good after the recent dip:
Cosco
KepLand
Midas
WingTai

Buy on dips instead of significant pullbacks

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 13:23:00 +0000

Listed below are interesting points found in the articles that I have read in the past week:

The world was ready to cope with oil at $75-$80 a barrel, the price range the leading oil exporter considers enough to sustain energy investment for the long term.
S&P 500 at 870 will be the floor.
Asia (China, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan) offers an attractive risk-return profile, as the region's equities can potentially provide returns of 20-25 percent over the next couple of years.
Buying on dips instead of waiting for any significant pullbacks.
Sentiments have gone from Armageddon to "there is light at the end of the tunnel”.

Hang Seng

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 11:53:00 +0000

Resistance: 19400, Upper Green trendline
Support: Lower Green trendline, 17685
Comment: If it surges above 19400 - more upside. If it plunges below lower Green trendline - more downside. I believe this is Wave 3, but just beware if it turns out to be Wave 5.

Dow Jones Industrial

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Sat, 30 May 2009 00:59:00 +0000

Resistance: 8591, 9000
Support: Lower Green trendline, 7882
Comment: If it surges above 8591 - more upside. If it plunges below lower Green trendline - more downside.